• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

  ² $5HIHUHQFH%RRN  (QKDQFHG(OHFWULFLW\6\VWHP$QDO\VLV)RU'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "  ² $5HIHUHQFH%RRN  (QKDQFHG(OHFWULFLW\6\VWHP$QDO\VLV)RU'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ"

Copied!
238
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

'(&$'(6352-(&7'2&80(171R

(QKDQFHG(OHFWULFLW\6\VWHP$QDO\VLV )RU'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ²$5HIHUHQFH%RRN

,17(51$7,21$/$720,&(1(5*<$*(1&<9,(11$

(2)

7KHRULJLQDWLQJ6HFWLRQRIWKLVSXEOLFDWLRQLQWKH,$($ZDV 3ODQQLQJDQG(FRQRPLF6WXGLHV6HFWLRQ

,QWHUQDWLRQDO$WRPLF(QHUJ\$JHQF\

:DJUDPHU6WUDVVH 32%R[

$9LHQQD$XVWULD

(1+$1&('(/(&75,&,7<6<67(0$1$/<6,6)25 '(&,6,210$.,1*²$5()(5(1&(%22.

,$($9,(11$

'(&$'(6

È,$($

3ULQWHGE\WKH,$($LQ$XVWULD

-XQH

(3)

)25(:25'

7KH REMHFWLYH RI HOHFWULFLW\ V\VWHP DQDO\VLV LQ VXSSRUW RI GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LV WR SURYLGH FRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWUHVXOWVXSRQZKLFKUHOHYDQWSROLF\FKRLFHVEHWZHHQDOWHUQDWLYHWHFKQRORJ\

RSWLRQVDQGVXSSO\VWUDWHJLHVFDQEHEDVHG7KLVUHIHUHQFHERRNRIIHUVDQDO\VWVSODQQHUVDQGGHFLVLRQ PDNHUVGRFXPHQWHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQHQKDQFHGDSSURDFKHVWRHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDQDO\VLVWKDWFDQDVVLVW LQ DFKLHYLQJ WKLV REMHFWLYH 7KH ERRN GHVFULEHV WKH PDLQ HOHPHQWV RI FRPSUHKHQVLYH HOHFWULFLW\

V\VWHPDQDO\VLVDQGRXWOLQHVDQDGYDQFHGLQWHJUDWHGDQDO\VLVDQGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJIUDPHZRUNIRUWKH HOHFWULFSRZHUVHFWRU(PSKDVLVLVSODFHGRQPHFKDQLVPVIRUEXLOGLQJFRQVHQVXVEHWZHHQLQWHUHVWHG DQG DIIHFWHG SDUWLHV ,$3V DQG RQ DVSHFWV RI SODQQLQJ WKDW JR EH\RQG WKH WUDGLWLRQDO HFRQRPLF RSWLPLVDWLRQDSSURDFK

7KHVFRSHDQGFRQWHQWVRIWKHERRNFRYHUWKHWRSLFVWREHDGGUHVVHGLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJIRU WKHSRZHUVHFWRUDQGWKHSURFHVVRILQWHJUDWLQJHFRQRPLFVRFLDOKHDOWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDODVSHFWVLQ WKHFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIDOWHUQDWLYHRSWLRQVDQGVWUDWHJLHV7KHERRNGHVFULEHVDQGGLVFXVVHV RYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNVSURFHVVHVDQGVWDWHRIWKHDUWPHWKRGVDQGWHFKQLTXHVDYDLODEOHWRDQDO\VWVDQG SODQQHUVIRUFDUU\LQJRXWFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWVWXGLHVLQRUGHUWRSURYLGHVRXQGLQIRUPDWLRQWR GHFLVLRQPDNHUV

7KLV UHIHUHQFH ERRN LV SXEOLVKHG DV SDUW RI D VHULHV RI WHFKQLFDO UHSRUWV DQG GRFXPHQWV SUHSDUHG LQ WKH IUDPHZRUN RI WKH LQWHUDJHQF\ MRLQW SURMHFW '(&$'(6 RQ GDWDEDVHV DQG PHWKRGRORJLHVIRUFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\VRXUFHVIRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ

7KHRYHUDOOREMHFWLYHRIWKH'(&$'(6SURMHFWLVWRHQKDQFHFDSDELOLWLHVIRULQFRUSRUDWLQJ HFRQRPLF VRFLDO KHDOWK DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO LVVXHV LQ WKH FRPSDUDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI HOHFWULFLW\

JHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQVDQGVWUDWHJLHVLQWKHSURFHVVRIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJIRUWKHSRZHUVHFWRU7KHSURMHFW HVWDEOLVKHG LQ LV FDUULHG RXW MRLQWO\ E\ WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ (& WKH (FRQRPLF DQG 6RFLDO &RPPLVVLRQ IRU $VLD DQG WKH 3DFLILF (6&$3 WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO $WRPLF (QHUJ\ $JHQF\

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

7KH-RLQW6WHHULQJ&RPPLWWHHIRUWKH'(&$'(6SURMHFWKRSHVWKDWWKLVERRNZLOOFRQWULEXWH WR WKH SURFHVV RI VWUHQJWKHQLQJ DQG LPSURYLQJ FDSDELOLWLHV IRU WKH GHVLJQ DQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VXVWDLQDEOH VWUDWHJLHV LQ WKH SRZHU VHFWRU LQ SDUWLFXODU LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DQG FRXQWULHV LQ WUDQVLWLRQWRPDUNHWHFRQRPLHV7KH6HFUHWDULDWRIWKH-RLQW6WHHULQJ&RPPLWWHHZRXOGEHJUDWHIXOWR UHFHLYHFRPPHQWVIURPUHDGHUVLQRUGHUWKDWIXWXUHHGLWLRQVFDQEHLPSURYHG

7KHUHIHUHQFHERRNKDVEHHQSUHSDUHGZLWKWKHDVVLVWDQFHRIPDQ\FRQWULEXWRUVFRPLQJIURP QDWLRQDODQGLQWHUQDWLRQDORUJDQL]DWLRQVDFWLYHLQWKHILHOGRIHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDQDO\VLV

7KHLQLWLDOGUDIWLQJRIWKHGLIIHUHQWFKDSWHUVDQGDQQH[HVZDVFDUULHGRXWE\KLJKO\TXDOLILHG H[SHUWV VHH WKH OLVW RI FRQWULEXWRUV WR SUHSDUDWLRQ GUDIWLQJ DQG UHYLHZ ZKR VHUYHG DV OHDGLQJ RU FRQWULEXWLQJDXWKRUVGUDZLQJIURPWKHLUH[SHULHQFHDQGNQRZKRZRQWKHVXEMHFWPDWWHU7KHERRN FRXOGQRWKDYHEHHQFRPSOHWHGZLWKRXWWKHFRQWULEXWLRQVRIWKLVLQLWLDOGUDIWLQJWHDP

7KH GUDIW FKDSWHUV SUHSDUHG E\ WKH OHDG DXWKRUV DQG FRQWULEXWRUV ZHUH KDUPRQLVHG DQG WHFKQLFDOO\HGLWHGMRLQWO\E\VWDIIPHPEHUVRIWKH,$($3ODQQLQJDQG(FRQRPLF6WXGLHV6HFWLRQWKH 1XFOHDU'HYHORSPHQW'LYLVLRQRIWKH2(&'1XFOHDU(QHUJ\$JHQF\DQGWKH,QGXVWU\DQG(QHUJ\

'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH:RUOG%DQN,%5'7KHILQDOYHUVLRQRIWKHERRNZDVSUHSDUHGE\//%HQQHWW IRUPHUO\+HDGRIWKH,$($3ODQQLQJDQG(FRQRPLF6WXGLHV6HFWLRQQRZUHWLUHGXQGHUDFRQWUDFW ZLWK WKH ,$($ 7KH ,$($ RIILFHU UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH ERRN ZDV ,) 9ODGX RI WKH 3ODQQLQJ DQG (FRQRPLF6WXGLHV6HFWLRQ'HSDUWPHQWRI1XFOHDU(QHUJ\

(4)

3DUWLFLSDQWVLQWKHWZRFRQVXOWDQFLHVDQGWKHWZRDGYLVRU\JURXSPHHWLQJVFRQYHQHGE\WKH ,$($ LQ DQG VHH WKH OLVW RI FRQWULEXWRUV WR SUHSDUDWLRQ GUDIWLQJ DQG UHYLHZ SURYLGHG YDOXDEOHJXLGDQFHDQGDVVLVWDQFHLQGHVLJQLQJWKHERRNHQVXULQJLWVFRQVLVWHQF\DQGHQKDQFLQJLWV FRKHUHQFHDQGFRPSOHWHQHVV

7KHLPSRUWDQWFRQWULEXWLRQVPDGHE\PDQ\H[SHUWVZKRSURYLGHGEDFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQRQ VSHFLILF LVVXHV DQG WRSLFV DQGRU UHYLHZHG DQG UHYLVHG SRUWLRQV RI WKH PDQXVFULSW DUH JUDWHIXOO\

DFNQRZOHGJHGDOVR

)LQDOO\DVSHFLDODFNQRZOHGJHPHQWLVJLYHQWRWKHVHQLRUH[SHUWVZKRNLQGO\DFFHSWHGWKH WDVN RI SHHU UHYLHZLQJ WKH UHIHUHQFH ERRN DV LW QHDUHG FRPSOHWLRQ VHH WKH OLVW RI FRQWULEXWRUV WR SUHSDUDWLRQ GUDIWLQJ DQG UHYLHZ 7KH DGYLFH JLYHQ E\ WKHVH H[SHUWV RQ ZD\V WR LPSURYH WKH SUHVHQWDWLRQZDVYHU\YDOXDEOHLQWKHSURFHVVRISUHSDULQJWKHILQDOWH[WRIWKHERRNIRUSXEOLFDWLRQ

EDITORIAL NOTE

7KHXVHRISDUWLFXODUGHVLJQDWLRQVRIFRXQWULHVRUWHUULWRULHVGRHVQRWLPSO\DQ\MXGJHPHQWE\WKH SXEOLVKHUWKH,$($DVWRWKHOHJDOVWDWXVRIVXFKFRXQWULHVRUWHUULWRULHVRIWKHLUDXWKRULWLHVDQG LQVWLWXWLRQVRURIWKHGHOLPLWDWLRQRIWKHLUERXQGDULHV

7KHPHQWLRQRIQDPHVRIVSHFLILFFRPSDQLHVRUSURGXFWVZKHWKHURUQRWLQGLFDWHGDVUHJLVWHUHG GRHVQRWLPSO\DQ\LQWHQWLRQWRLQIULQJHSURSULHWDU\ULJKWVQRUVKRXOGLWEHFRQVWUXHGDVDQ DQHQGRUVHPHQWRUUHFRPPHQGDWLRQRQWKHSDUWRIWKH,$($

(5)

&217(176

&+$37(5,1752'8&7,21

+,6725<2)7+(%22.

2%-(&7,9($1'7$5*(7$8',(1&(

6&23(2)7+(%22.

'(),1,7,2162),03257$177(506

6758&785($1'&217(1762)7+(%22.

&+$37(5(/(0(176)25&216,'(5$7,21,1(1+$1&('

(/(&75,&,7<6<67(0$1$/<6,6

*(1(5$/&216,'(5$7,216

75$',7,21$/$3352$&+723/$11,1*

62&,$/$1'(&2120,&&217(;7

0HWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUN 2UJDQL]DWLRQDOIUDPHZRUN (OHFWULFXWLOLW\UHJXODWLRQLQPDUNHWHFRQRPLHV

(19,5210(17$/+($/7+$1'62&,$/,03$&76

72:$5'66867$,1$%/('(9(/230(17

&+$37(57+(352&(662)(1+$1&('(/(&75,&,7<6<67(0$1$/<6,6

,1752'8&7,21

7+('(&,6,210$.(5635()(5(1&(6$1'7+()2508/$7,212)7+(3/$11,1*352%/(0 3ODQQLQJXQGHUXQFHUWDLQW\

0XOWLREMHFWLYHGHFLVLRQSUREOHPV '\QDPLFQDWXUHRIWKHSODQQLQJSUREOHP

,'(17,)<7+(352%/(06$1'6(7837+(*2$/6

'(),1(48$17,),$%/((9$/8$7,21&5,7(5,$$1'3/$11,1*2%-(&7,9(6 63(&,)<6&23(%281'$5,(6$1'$1$/<7,&$/$3352$&+

'(),1()5$0('$7$

'(6,*1675$7(*,(6$1''(),1(3266,%/()8785(6

6(/(&70(7+2'2/2*,(6$1'722/6

&2//(&7'$7$$1'&21'8&7$1$/<6,6

(9$/8$7($1'35(6(177+(5(68/76

&+$37(5$1,17(*5$7('$3352$&+72(1+$1&('

(/(&75,&,7<6<67(0$1$/<6,6

,1752'8&7,21

'(0$1'$1$/<6,6

*HQHUDODVSHFWV 5HFRJQLVLQJXQFHUWDLQW\

$SSURDFKHVWRIRUHFDVWLQJ +LVWRULFDOSHUVSHFWLYH (FRQRPLFIRUHFDVWLQJ (OHFWULFLW\GHPDQGIRUHFDVWLQJ /RDGIRUHFDVWLQJ

'(0$1'6,'(0$1$*(0(17'60

7KHUROHRIGHPDQGVLGHPDQDJHPHQWLQWKHSODQQLQJSURFHVV 2EMHFWLYHRIGHPDQGVLGHPDQDJHPHQW 0DLQ'60RSWLRQV 6SHFLDOGDWDUHTXLUHPHQWVRI'60SURJUDPPHV 5HJXODWRU\HQYLURQPHQWIRU'60 .H\DUHDVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQ'60

6833/<6,'(0$1$*(0(17

*HQHUDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV .H\LVVXHVLQWHFKQRORJ\FKRLFHV

(6)

0DLQWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQV 3ODQQLQJDSSURDFKHV

(19,5210(17$/,03$&7$66(660(17

7KHFRQFHSWRIHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQW 7KHLPSDFWSDWKZD\DSSURDFK ,PSDFWVRIGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\VRXUFHV

&RPSDULVRQRILPSDFWV

9$/8$7,21$1',1&25325$7,212)(;7(51$/&2676

:K\FDOFXODWHHQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWV"

'LIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVWRFRVWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV 9DOXDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHFRVWV

&RQFOXGLQJUHPDUNVRQH[WHUQDOFRVWV ,17(*5$7,212)(&2120,&62&,$/+($/7+$1'(19,5210(17$/,03$&76 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0XOWLFULWHULDGHFLVLRQDLGLQJDSSURDFKHV 6LPXOWDQHRXVRSWLPLVDWLRQDSSURDFK 6WHSE\VWHSDSSURDFK

&+$37(5)520$1$/<6,672'(&,6,21$1'%(<21'

)520$1$/<6,672'(&,6,21

7KHSDUWLFLSDWRU\GHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV :LQZLQRSWLRQVDQGWUDGHRIIV

'(&,6,210$.,1*,1$181&(57$,1:25/'

1DWXUHDQGLPSDFWRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV ,GHQWLILFDWLRQDQGTXDQWLILFDWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV 5LVNDQDO\VLVPHWKRGVDQGWHFKQLTXHV 7UDGHRIIDQGULVNPHWKRG

&RQWLQJHQF\SODQQLQJDQGKHGJLQJDJDLQVWULVN 35(6(17$7,212)7+(5(&200(1'('32:(56<67(0(;3$16,21352*5$00(

3UHVHQWDWLRQWRGHFLVLRQPDNHUV 3XEOLFLQYROYHPHQWLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ

%(<21''(&,6,210$.,1*,03/(0(17$7,21(9$/8$7,21$1'021,725,1*

(QYLURQPHQWDOPDQDJHPHQWSODQV 0RQLWRULQJWKHHIIHFWVDQGPHDVXULQJFRPSOLDQFH 3URMHFWFRPSOHWLRQUHSRUWV

&21&/8',1*5(0$5.6

$11(;,6800$5<2)&20387(5722/6

$11(;,,'(6&5,37,2162)0$,1(/(&75,&,7<*(1(5$7,217(&+12/2*,(6 ,,&2$/),5('32:(53/$176 ,,&RQYHQWLRQDOSXOYHULVHGFRDOFRPEXVWLRQ ,,)OXLGLVHGEHGFRDOFRPEXVWLRQ ,,$GYDQFHGVWHDPF\FOHV ,,,QWHJUDWHGJDVLILFDWLRQFRPELQHGF\FOH

,,*$6),5('32:(53/$176

,,%DVLFIHDWXUHVRIJDVWXUELQHSRZHUSODQWV ,,3ROOXWLRQFRQWUROV\VWHPVIRUJDVWXUELQHSRZHUSODQWV ,,$GYDQFHGJDVWXUELQHSRZHUSODQWV

,,)8(/&(//6

,,18&/($532:(53/$176

,,%DVLFIHDWXUHVRIFRQYHQWLRQDOQXFOHDUSRZHUSODQWV ,,$GYDQFHGQXFOHDUSRZHUSODQWGHVLJQV

,,27+(532:(53/$177(&+12/2*,(6

,,2LODQGELRPDVVILUHGSRZHUSODQWV ,,:LQGWXUELQHV

(7)

$11(;,,,(19,5210(17$/,03$&762)(/(&75,&,7<352'8&7,21

,,,,1752'8&7,21

,,,%5,()'(6&5,37,212)(19,5210(17$/,03$&76&211(&7(':,7+7+(((6 ,,,327(17,$/(19,5210(17$/,03$&762)',))(5(17(1(5*<6<67(06 ,,,+\GURHOHFWULFSRZHUSODQWV ,,,7UDQVPLVVLRQOLQHVDQGWUDQVIRUPHUVZLWFKLQJVWDWLRQV ,,,7KHUPDOSRZHUSODQWV ,,,1XFOHDUSRZHUSODQWV

,,,)8//(1(5*<&+$,1,03$&76

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

$11(;,9(19,5210(17$/&267678',(6$1'7+(,5$33/,&$7,21

,9723'2:1$3352$&+

,9%2772083$3352$&+

,986(2)(;7(51$/(19,5210(17$/&2676,1(/(&75,&,7<6<67(03/$11,1*

$11(;96(9(5($&&,'(176,17+((1(5*<6(&725

96(9(5($&&,'(17,668(6

975($70(172)6(9(5($&&,'(176

9'HILQLWLRQRIVHYHUHDFFLGHQWV 96FRSHRIVHYHUHDFFLGHQWDQDO\VLV 96RXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQRQSDVWDFFLGHQWV 93UREDELOLVWLFVDIHW\DVVHVVPHQW 96XEMHFWLYHULVNV 93UHVHQWDWLRQRIUHVXOWV

9620(,16,*+76$1'(;$03/(62)5(68/76

9&KDLQVSHFLILFQDWXUHRISRWHQWLDOVHYHUHDFFLGHQWV 9([DPSOHVRIUHVXOWVIURPFXUUHQWVWXGLHV 9&855(17,668(6,1&203$5$7,9($66(660(172)6(9(5($&&,'(176

$11(;9,&25325$7(,17(*5$7('5(6285&(3/$11,1*

$11(;9,,&200(5&,$//,*+7,1*5(%$7(352*5$0

(8)

$11(;9,,,6$03/(352%/(0,//8675$7,1*7+(67(3%<67(3$3352$&+72

'(&,6,21$1$/<6,6

9,,,,1752'8&7,21 9,,,0(7+2'2/2*<)257+((;7(1'('$1$/<6,6 9,,,63(&,)<2%-(&7,9(6$1'0($685(6 9,,,,'(17,)<&$1','$7((;3$16,21675$7(*,(6 9,,,'(6&5,%(3266,%/(,03$&76)25($&+675$7(*<

9,,,(9$/8$7(,03$&762)($&+675$7(*<

9,,,&203$5,6212)$/7(51$7,9(675$7(*,(6 9,,,&21&/86,216

*/266$5<

5(/$7('0$7(5,$/

%,%/,2*5$3+<

&2175,%8725672'5$)7,1*$1'5(9,(:

/,672)),*85(6

)LJXUH$FWLYLWLHVIRUHIIHFWLYHDOORFDWLRQRIUHVRXUFHV )LJXUH7KUHHOHYHOKLHUDUFKLFDOVWUXFWXUH )LJXUH6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRILQWHUDFWLRQVLQWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV )LJXUH6WUXFWXUHGSURFHGXUHIRUHQKDQFHGHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDQDO\VLVLQ

VXSSRUWRIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ )LJXUH([DPSOHRIUHIHUHQFHHQHUJ\V\VWHP5(6GLDJUDP )LJXUH6FKHPDWLFFRPSDULVRQRIOLIHF\FOHDQDO\VLV/&$DQG

IXOOHQHUJ\FKDLQ)(1&+DQDO\VLV )LJXUH&RDOHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQFKDLQHPEHGGHGLQWKH5(6GLDJUDP )LJXUH5RRPKHDWLQJQHWZRUNDVDQH[DPSOHRIWKHVFRSHRIQHWZRUNDQDO\VLV )LJXUH7KHSURFHGXUHRIWUDGHRIIDQDO\VLV )LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLYHH[DPSOHRIµVWDJQDWLRQ¶DQGµSURVSHULW\¶VFHQDULRV

WRJHWKHUZLWKGLIIHUHQWVWUDWHJLHV )LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLYHH[DPSOHRIWKHVWHSVDQGVFKHGXOHIRUDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWVWXG\

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

(9)

/,672)7$%/(6

7$%/(7\SHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOKHDOWKDQGVRFLDOLPSDFWVDULVLQJIURP

DFWLYLWLHVLQWKHSRZHUVHFWRU 7$%/(0RVWIUHTXHQWO\XVHGGVPVWUDWHJLHV 7$%/(,3ULQFLSDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVHOHFWHGWRROVIRUHQHUJ\DQGHOHFWULFLW\DQDO\VLV 7$%/(,/LVWRIFRQWDFWVIRUGHWDLOHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHHQHUJ\DQDO\VLVWRROV 7$%/(,,,+\GURHOHFWULFSRZHUSODQWV,PSDFWVRQWKHSK\VLFDOHQYLURQPHQW 7$%/(,,,+\GURHOHFWULFSRZHUSODQWV,PSDFWVRQWKHSK\VLFDOHQYLURQPHQWFRQW 7$%/(,,,+\GURHOHFWULFSRZHUSODQWVLPSDFWVRQWKHELRORJLFDOHQYLURQPHQW 7$%/(,,,+\GURHOHFWULFSRZHUSODQWV,PSDFWVRQWKHVRFLRHFRQRPLF

DQGFXOWXUDOHQYLURQPHQW 7$%/(,,,+\GURHOHFWULFSRZHUSODQWV,PSDFWVRQWKHVRFLRHFRQRPLFDQG

FXOWXUDOHQYLURQPHQWFRQW 7$%/(,,,7UDQVPLVVLRQOLQHV,PSDFWVRQWKHSK\VLFDODQG

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

7$%/(,9Environmental cost adders of electricity chains for the UK«««««««««««««

7$%/(,9'DPDJHHVWLPDWHVIRUIRVVLOIXHOF\FOHV 7$%/(,9Damage estimates for the nuclear fuel cycle in France«««««««««««««««

7$%/(,9'DPDJHHVWLPDWHVIRUZLQGWXUELQHVDQGK\GURSRZHU 7$%/(9'DWDEDVHVRQPDMRUDFFLGHQWV 7$%/(9,,'60SURJUDPSDUWLFLSDWLRQGDWD 7$%/(9,,3URMHFWHG'60SURJUDPXWLOLW\FRVWGDWD 7$%/(9,,3URMHFWHG'60SURJUDPSDUWLFLSDWLRQFRVWGDWD 7$%/(9,,,$JJUHJDWHGGDWDIRUGHFLVLRQDOWHUQDWLYHV 7$%/(9,,,,OOXVWUDWLYHYDOXHVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWV 7$%/(9,,,5DQNLQJPDSRIWKHDOWHUQDWLYHV

(10)
(11)

&+$37(5 ,1752'8&7,21

7KHLQFUHDVLQJDZDUHQHVVRIVRFLDOKHDOWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIKXPDQDFWLYLWLHVKDV EURDGHQHG WKH UDQJH RI LVVXHV WKDW QHHG WR EH DGGUHVVHG E\ DQDO\VWV DQG WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW E\

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

WDNLQJ LQWR DF F RXQW WKH HPHUJHQF H RI QHZ LVVXHV DQG SULRULWLHV IRU WKH SRZHU VHF WRU VXF K DV GHUHJXODWLRQ SULYDWLVDWLRQ DQG FRQFHUQV DERXW WKH JOREDO HQYLURQPHQW 7KH ERRN HPSKDVLVHV WKH SURFHVVRIEXLOGLQJFRQVHQVXVEHWZHHQLQWHUHVWHGDQGDIIHFWHGSDUWLHV,$3VDQGGHFLVLRQPDNHUV

7KLV ERRN LV GHVLJQHG WR EH HVVHQWLDOO\ DQ LQWURGXFWLRQ WR HQKDQFHG HOHFWULFLW\ V\VWHP DQDO\VLV 7KHUHIRUH LW SURYLGHV DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH GLIIHUHQW HOHPHQWV OHYHOV DQG DFWRUV LQYROYHG ZLWKLQDQLQWHJUDWHGIUDPHZRUNIRUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ+RZHYHUWKHERRNSURYLGHVRQO\EULHIVXPPDU\

GHVFULSWLRQV RI PHWKRGRORJLHV PRGHOV DQG WRROV WKDW FDQ EH XVHG IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH VSHFLILF HOHPHQWVRIWKHLQWHJUDWHGIUDPHZRUN7KHUHDGHULVLQYLWHGWRUHIHUWRWKHUHIHUHQFHVDQGELEOLRJUDSK\

IRUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQRQVXFKWRROV +LVWRU\RIWKHERRN

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

:LWKLQ WKH '(&$'(6 SURMHF W D JURXS RI H[SHUWV KDG SUHSDUHG D ZRUNLQJ GRF XPHQW RQ FRPSXWHULVHGWRROVIRUFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQVDQGVWUDWHJLHV7KDW GRFXPHQW FRQVWLWXWHG D FDWDORJXH GHVFULELQJ VWDWHRIWKHDUW FRPSXWHU WRROV WKDW FDQ EH XVHG E\

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

(12)

7KHSUHVHQWUHIHUHQFHERRNFRPSOHPHQWVRWKHUSXEOLFDWLRQVIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDORUJDQLVDWLRQV RQHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDQDO\VLVDQGSODQQLQJDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWLQSDUWLFXODUWKH ,$($JXLGHERRN>@RQHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPH[SDQVLRQSODQQLQJZKLFKIRFXVHVRQWKHFODVVLFOHDVWFRVW SODQQLQJ DSSURDFK WKH ,$($ GRFXPHQWV RQ FRPSDUDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI KHDOWK DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFWVRIHOHFWULFDOHQHUJ\V\VWHPV>@DQGWKH:RUOG%DQNUHSRUWVRQHQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFWDVVHVVPHQW>@

7KLVUHIHUHQFHERRNKDVEHHQSUHSDUHGE\DJURXSRIH[SHUWVIURPQDWLRQDODQGLQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQVZKRGHVLJQHGLWVRYHUDOOVWUXFWXUHFROOHFWHGWKHEDFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQDQGGUDIWHG WKHGLIIHUHQWFKDSWHUV7KH,$($WKH2(&'1($DQGWKH:RUOG%DQNZHUHUHVSRQVLEOHMRLQWO\IRU KDUPRQLVLQJDQGILQDOLVLQJWKHERRNLQLWVSUHVHQWIRUP

2EMHFWLYHDQGWDUJHWDXGLHQFH

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

7KHWDUJHWDXGLHQFHRIWKHERRNLVSULPDULO\VHQLRUSRZHUVHFWRUDQDO\VWVDQGSODQQHUVLQ JRYHUQPHQWDODJHQFLHVLQWHUQDWLRQDORUJDQLVDWLRQVHOHFWULFXWLOLWLHVDQGLQGHSHQGHQWSRZHUSURGXFHUV ,33V $OVR DOO WKH SDUWLHV LQYROYHG LQ DQG DIIHFWHG E\ SROLFLHV LQ WKH SRZHU VHFWRU LQFOXGLQJ DVVRFLDWLRQVRIFRQVXPHUVDQGQRQJRYHUQPHQWDORUJDQLVDWLRQVZLOOILQGWKHERRNDVRXUFHRIJHQHUDO LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWVRIGLIIHUHQWIXHOF\FOHVDQGWHFKQRORJLHVIRU HOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ

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

,QWKLVFRQQHFWLRQWKHERRNZLOOEHXVHGE\WKH,$($DQGRWKHULQWHUQDWLRQDORUJDQLVDWLRQVLQ WUDLQLQJFRXUVHVZRUNVKRSVDQGVHPLQDUVRQHQHUJ\HOHFWULFLW\KHDOWKDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQWDLPLQJ WRZDUGVHQKDQFLQJFDSDELOLWLHVIRUGHVLJQLQJDQGLPSOHPHQWLQJVXVWDLQDEOHVWUDWHJLHVIRUVXSSO\LQJ HOHFWULFLW\VHUYLFHV

6FRSHRIWKHERRN

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

6LQF H HOHF WULF LW\ V\VWHPV DUH SDUW RI WKH HQHUJ\ VHF WRU ZKLF K LQ WXUQ LV SDUW RI WKH ZKROH HFRQRP\ WKH ERRN EULHIO\ FRYHUV LVVXHV UHODWHG WR PDFURHFRQRPLFV DQG WKH HQHUJ\ V\VWHP DV D ZKROHLQVRIDUDVWKHDQDO\VLVRIHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGDQGVXSSO\LVOLQNHGWRWKHP

(13)

*LYHQWKHZLGHUDQJHRIREMHFWLYHVHQHUJ\QHHGVQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHDYDLODELOLW\DQGWHFKQLFDO DQGLQGXVWULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVSUHYDLOLQJLQGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVDQGUHJLRQVWKHERRNGRHVQRWGHDOZLWK VSHFLILF VLWXDWLRQV EXW LQVWHDG IRFXVHV RQ JHQHULF IHDWXUHV RI WKH DQDO\VLV DQG GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV$QDO\VWVDQGGHFLVLRQPDNHUVVKRXOGDGDSWVXFKJHQHULFIUDPHZRUNVWRVSHFLILFORFDODQG UHJLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVZKHQDSSO\LQJWKHPLQVXSSRUWRIWKHLUSROLF\PDNLQJ

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

(QYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQW(,$LQFOXGHVWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIDLUDQGZDWHUHPLVVLRQV VROLGZDVWHVJHQHUDWHGDQGRWKHUUHVLGXDOVHJYLVXDOLQWUXVLRQDQGLPSDFWVRQELRGLYHUVLW\/RFDO UHJLRQDODQGJOREDOLPSDFWVUHVXOWLQJIURPHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQDQGXVHDUHDGGUHVVHG7KHKHDOWK LPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWFRYHUVRFFXSDWLRQDODQGSXEOLFKHDOWKULVNVIURPURXWLQHRSHUDWLRQDQGDFFLGHQWV 7KHERRNGRHVQRWSURYLGHDQLQGHSWKUHYLHZRI(,$PHWKRGRORJLHVVLQFHWKHVHDUHGHVFULEHGLQ VSHFLDOLVHG UHSRUWV DQG JXLGHERRNV WR ZKLFK WKH UHDGHU LV LQYLWHG WR UHIHU VHH $QQH[ ;

%LEOLRJUDSK\

7KH HFRQRPLF DVSHFWV DGGUHVVHG LQ WKH ERRN FRYHU GLUHFW FRVWV LHWKRVH LQWHUQDOLVHG E\

HOHFWULFLW\SURGXFHUVDQGH[WHUQDOFRVWVLHWKRVHERUQHE\VRFLHW\DVDZKROHEXWQRWLQFOXGHGLQ WKH FRVW RI HOHFWULFLW\ LQVRIDU DV WKH\ FDQ EH YDOXHG %H\RQG GLUHFW OHYHOLVHG FRVWV RI HOHFWULFLW\

JHQHUDWLRQFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVDVVHVVPHQWRIPLWLJDWLRQRSWLRQVDQGPHDVXUHVEURDGPDFURHFRQRPLF LPSDFWVDQGVRFLDOFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIDGHTXDWHHOHFWULFLW\VXSSO\WHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSPHQWDQG KHDOWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQDUHGLVFXVVHG6WDWHRIWKHDUWPHWKRGRORJLHVIRUHVWLPDWLQJDQG YDOXLQJH[WHUQDOLWLHVDUHGHVFULEHGDOVR

7KH ERRN KLJKOLJKWV WKH PDLQ VWHSV RI D FRPSUHKHQVLYH DSSURDFK WR HOHFWULFLW\ V\VWHP DQDO\VLVIRUSROLF\PDNLQJSXUSRVHVDQGLQGLFDWHVWKHW\SHVRIPHWKRGRORJLHVDQDO\WLFDOPRGHOVDQG FRPSXWHULVHG WRROV WKDW FDQ EH XVHG LQ VXSSRUW RI GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ +RZHYHU LW GRHV QRW SURYLGH GHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVPHQWLRQHG)RULQGHSWKLQIRUPDWLRQRQFRPSXWHUWRROV IRUFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQVDQGVWUDWHJLHVWKHUHDGHULVLQYLWHGWR UHIHUWR$QQH[,

7KHERRNLQFOXGHVDVKRUWGLVFXVVLRQRILQVWUXPHQWVDQGPHDVXUHVVXFKDVWD[HVVXEVLGLHV VWDQGDUGV UHJXODWLRQV UHVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW DQG WHFKQRORJ\ WUDQVIHU WKDW GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV PLJKWXVHLQRUGHUWRIDFLOLWDWHSROLF\LPSOHPHQWDWLRQDQGEHWWHUDFKLHYHWKHLUJRDOVDQGREMHFWLYHV

7KHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVGHVFULEHGHPSKDVLVHVWKHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQ,$3VZLWKLQDQ LWHUDWLYHGLDORJXHDLPLQJWRZDUGVEXLOGLQJDFRQVHQVXVRQGHVLJQDQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRISRZHUVHFWRU SROLFLHV%H\RQGWKHWHFKQLTXHVIRUDVVHVVLQJDQGYDOXLQJSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHLPSDFWVRIDOWHUQDWLYH RSWLRQV DQG VWUDWHJLHV WKH SURF HVV RXWOLQHG LQ WKH ERRN VKRXOG DOORZ GHF LVLRQ PDNHUV WR UHIOHF W SHUFHSWLRQV RI WKH SUREOHPV DQG REMHFWLYHV WKDW GLIIHU DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQWHUHVW JURXSV DQG WKH FRXQWULHVRUUHJLRQVFRQFHUQHG

(14)

'HILQLWLRQVRILPSRUWDQWWHUPV

6RPH NH\ WHUPV DUH GHILQHG H[SOLF LWO\ EHORZ EHF DXVH WKHLU PHDQLQJV DV DGRSWHG IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI WKLV ERRN DUH HVVHQWLDO IRU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH EDVLF FRQFHSWV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH LQWHJUDWHG DSSURDFKWRSROLF\PDNLQJLQWKHSRZHUVHFWRUDVGHVFULEHGLQWKHIROORZLQJFKDSWHUV7KHJORVVDU\

$QQH[,;H[SODLQVWKHPHDQLQJRIDGGLWLRQDOLPSRUWDQWWHUPVXVHGLQWKHERRNIRUZKLFKLWPLJKW EHGLIILFXOWWRILQGFRPPRQO\DJUHHGGHILQLWLRQV'HILQLWLRQVRIFODVVLFHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDQDO\VLVDQG HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFW DVVHVVPHQW WHUPLQRORJ\ FDQ EH IRXQG LQ VSHFLDOLVHG GLFWLRQDULHV DQG RWKHU SXEOLVKHGGRFXPHQWVRQHQHUJ\HOHFWULFLW\DQGWKHHQYLURQPHQW

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

&RVWEHQHILWDQDO\VLVLVDPHWKRGIRUH[DPLQLQJDQGDFFRXQWLQJIRULQVRIDUDVIHDVLEOHWKH SRVLWLYHHIIHFWVEHQHILWVDQGQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVFRVWVRIXQGHUWDNLQJDQDFWLRQ&RVWEHQHILWDQDO\VLV LQFOXGHVWZRPDLQVWHSVLGHQWLI\LQJDQGTXDQWLI\LQJSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVDQGHVWDEOLVKLQJDQ DFFRXQWLQJ IUDPHZRUN IRU UHSRUWLQJ DOO WKHVH HIIHFWV ZLWK D FRPPRQ XQLW RI PHDVXUH JHQHUDOO\

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

XVLQJGLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVVXFKDVGDPDJHIXQFWLRQVFRVWVRIPLWLJDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVRUPHDVXUHV DQG ZLOOLQJQHVV RI WKH DIIHFWHG SDUWLHV WR SD\ IRU DYRLGLQJ D QXLVDQFH 9DOXLQJ DQG LQWHUQDOLVLQJ H[WHUQDOFRVWVKHOSWRH[WHQGWKHFRQFHSWRIFRVWEHQHILWDQDO\VLV

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

WKHSURGXFHUVDQGWKDWDUHUHIOHFWHGE\PDUNHWPHFKDQLVPVLQWKHSULFHVSDLGE\WKHFRQVXPHUV7KH /&3 SURFHVV ZKLFK KDV EHHQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFK DGRSWHG E\ XWLOLWLHV IRU V\VWHP H[SDQVLRQ SODQQLQJ UHOLHV XSRQ FODVVLF PHWKRGV IRU PLQLPLVLQJ DQ HFRQRPLF REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ XQGHU FRQVWUDLQWV,QJHQHUDOWKRVHFRVWVWKDWDUHQRWUHIOHFWHGE\PDUNHWPHFKDQLVPVRUUHJXODWLRQVVXFKDV VRFLDOFRVWVDQGKHDOWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWVRIUHVLGXDOHPLVVLRQVDQGEXUGHQVDUHQRWFDSWXUHG E\/&3DQGDUHQRWWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWLQWKHRSWLPLVHGH[SDQVLRQSDWKVLGHQWLILHGE\WKLVPHWKRG +RZHYHUFRVWVWKDWDUHQRWUHIOHFWHGE\PDUNHWPHFKDQLVPVFDQLQSULQFLSOHEHFDSWXUHGE\/&3 SURYLGHG WKDW VXFK µH[WHUQDO FRVWV¶ DUH TXDQWLILHG DQG LQFOXGHG LQ WKH REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ VHH 6HFWLRQ

,QWHJUDWHG UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ ,53 VXEVXPHV OHDVW FRVW SODQQLQJ DQG LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFWV ,53 LPSOLHV DQ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH GLIIHUHQW DFWRUV XWLOLWLHV ,33V

(15)

JRYHUQPHQWDO DJHQFLHV QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV 1*2V FXVWRPHUV DQG ,$3V ,53 SODFHV JUHDWHU HPSKDVLV WKDQ /&3 RQ GHPDQGVLGH PDQDJHPHQW DQG HQHUJ\ FRQVHUYDWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV DQG PHDVXUHVVXFKDVPRUHHIILFLHQWOLJKWLQJGHYLFHVDQGDSSOLDQFHVLPSURYHGLQVXODWLRQRIEXLOGLQJVDQG WKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWFRQVXPHOHVVHQHUJ\,53LQWHJUDWHVSROLF\JXLGHOLQHVWKDWDUH GHVLJQHGWRPLQLPLVHWKHGLUHFWDQGH[WHUQDOFRVWVRIWKHUHVRXUFHVXVHGDWWKHHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ GHOLYHU\DQGHQGXVHOHYHOVIRUVXSSO\LQJDJLYHQHOHFWULFLW\VHUYLFH6XFKJXLGHOLQHVPD\DGGUHVV LPSURYHPHQWV RI IXHO TXDOLW\ HJVKLIWLQJ WR ORZ VXOSKXU FRQWHQW FRDO QHWZRUN RSWLPLVDWLRQ HJLQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ RI JULGV EHWZHHQ QHLJKERXULQJ XWLOLWLHV RU FRXQWULHV GHFHQWUDOLVHG HJE\

UHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\V\VWHPVYHUVXVFHQWUDOLVHGJHQHUDWLRQDQGSURPRWLRQRIHIILFLHQWHQGXVHGHYLFHV HJWKURXJKWD[UHEDWHVDQGVXEVLGLHVIRUIDFLOLWDWLQJPDUNHWSHQHWUDWLRQRIHOHFWULFDSSOLDQFHVZLWK ORZVSHFLILFFRQVXPSWLRQ,53DOORZVHOHFWULFLW\SURGXFHUVWRUHFRYHUFRVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHGXFLQJ SRZHU GHPDQG DQG WKHUHIRUH DYRLGLQJ WKH QHHG IRU DGGLWLRQDO JHQHUDWLRQ FDSDFLW\ DV ZHOO DV LQYHVWPHQWVLQQHZJHQHUDWLQJFDSDFLWLHV

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

,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW WKH ERXQGDULHV EHWZHHQ WKH WKUHH DSSURDFKHV GHVFULEHG DERYH DUH UDWKHUIOH[LEOH$QH[WHQGHG/&3DSSURDFKPD\ZHOOLQFOXGHPDQ\IHDWXUHVRI,53DQGHYHQWRXFK VRPH DUHDV RI WKH HQKDQFHG DQDO\VLV DSSURDFK $OVR E\ PDNLQJ FHUWDLQ PRGLILFDWLRQV GXULQJ LWV DSSOLFDWLRQ HJ XVLQJ PXOWLVFHQDULR DQDO\VLV WR UHIOHFW WKH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ NH\ IDFWRUV GRLQJ SRVWFDOFXODWLRQ DQDO\VLV DQG FRPSDUDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH DOWHUQDWLYHV WKH ,53 DSSURDFK FDQ HQFRPSDVVPRVWRIWKHDGGLWLRQDOIHDWXUHVRIWKHHQKDQFHGDSSURDFK

7KHPDLQIHDWXUHVRIWKHWKUHHDSSURDFKHVDUHDVIROORZV

œ /HDVW&RVW3ODQQLQJ/&3 - 2QO\VXSSO\VLGHRSWLRQVFRQVLGHUHG

- ([RJHQRXVGHPDQGSURMHFWLRQVWKDWDUHQRWPRGLILHGE\VXSSO\VLGHVROXWLRQV - ([RJHQRXVIXHOSULFHSURMHFWLRQVWKDWDUHQRWPRGLILHGE\IXHOGHPDQGVDVGHULYHG

IURPVXSSO\VLGHVROXWLRQV

- (QYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHVFRQVLGHUHGDVHPLVVLRQFRQVWUDLQWVLQWHUQDOLVDWLRQRIH[WHUQDO FRVWVRIVXSSO\VLGHVROXWLRQVRQO\LQH[FHSWLRQDOFDVHV

œ ,QWHJUDWHG5HVRXUFH3ODQQLQJ,53 - %RWKGHPDQGVLGHDQGVXSSO\VLGHRSWLRQVFRQVLGHUHG

- 'HPDQGSURMHFWLRQVGHSHQGRQHQHUJ\SULFHDVGHULYHGIURPVXSSO\VLGHVROXWLRQV LHSULFHHODVWLFLW\RIHQHUJ\GHPDQGDFFRXQWHGIRU

- )XHO SULF HV GHSHQG RQ WKH DPRXQWV RI IXHO UHVRXUF HV F RQVXPHG DV GHULYHG IURP VXSSO\VLGHVROXWLRQV

- &RQVLGHUDWLRQRIH[WHUQDOFRVWVLVDQLQWHJUDOSDUWRIWKHDQDO\VLV

œ (QKDQFHG$QDO\VLV

- &RPELQHVPDLQIHDWXUHVRI/&3DQG,53

(16)

- 8VHVPXOWLFULWHULDDQDO\VLVIRUWDNLQJYLHZSRLQWVRIGLIIHUHQW,$3VLQWRDFFRXQW - 7UHDWVXQFHUWDLQWLHVH[SOLFLWO\

- ,QFOXGHVFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIH[WHUQDOFRVWVIRUDOOVWDJHVRIHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQFKDLQV )(1&+DQDO\VLV

2QH VKRXOG XQGHUVWDQG DOVR WKDW WKH VSHF LILF IHDWXUHV RI WKH HQKDQF HG DSSURDF K DQG HYHQ PRUH VR IRU WKH ,53 DSSURDFK DUH QRW HQWLUHO\ QHZ >VHH IRU H[DPSOH @ 7KH QHHG IRU FRPSUHKHQVLYHDQDO\VLVZDVLGHQWLILHGORQJDJRDQGVRPHDQDO\VWVLQFOXGHGWKHPLQWRWKHDQDO\VLVRI HOHFWULFSRZHUV\VWHPV+RZHYHULWLVRQO\UDWKHUUHFHQWO\WKDWWKHVHIHDWXUHVEHFDPHDQXQDYRLGDEOH SDUWRIDQ\VHULRXVHOHFWULFLW\VHFWRUVWXG\

6WUXFWXUHDQGFRQWHQWVRIWKHERRN

7KLVUHIHUHQFHERRNLVVWUXFWXUHGLQILYHFKDSWHUVDQGHOHYHQDQQH[HV7KLVLQWURGXFWLRQDQG IRXU PDLQ FKDSWHUV SUHVHQW WKH RYHUDOO IUDPHZRUN DQG WKH GLIIHUHQW FRQFHSWV WKDW FRQVWLWXWH WKH SURSRVHG HQKDQFHG HOHFWULFLW\ V\VWHP DQDO\VLV DSSURDFK DQG LWV DSSOLFDWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURF HVV IRU WKH SRZHU VHF WRU 7KH DQQH[HV SURYLGH PRUH GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ VRPH VSHFLILFWRSLFVDQGLVVXHVWKDWDUHDGGUHVVHGRQO\LQDJHQHUDOZD\ZLWKLQWKHERG\RIWKHERRN

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

&KDSWHUGHDOVZLWKHYDOXDWLQJWKHUHVXOWVIURPWKHDQDO\VLVWKHWUHDWPHQWRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV ULVNVDQGVRFLDOSUHIHUHQFHVDQGHVWDEOLVKLQJDQHIIHFWLYHGLDORJXHEHWZHHQDQDO\VWVGHFLVLRQPDNHUV DQG ,$3V 6RPH YLHZV DUH RIIHUHG RQ LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ LVVXHV DQG ZD\V DQG PHDQV WR PRQLWRU WKH RYHUDOOLPSOLFDWLRQVLHPDFURHFRQRPLFVRFLDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRIWKHDOWHUQDWLYHVXQGHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQDVFRPSDUHGWRWKHREMHFWLYHVGHILQHGE\WKHGHFLVLRQPDNHU

$QQH[ , SURYLGHV D VKRUW GHVFULSWLRQ DQG EDFNJURXQG LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ VRPH VWDWHRIWKHDUW DQDO\WLFDOPRGHOVDQGFRPSXWHUWRROVFXUUHQWO\XVHGLQGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWVWXGLHVIRUWKHSRZHUVHFWRU (PSKDVLVLVSODFHGRQWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVVWUHQJWKVDQGOLPLWDWLRQVRIWKHWRROVSUHVHQWHGLQ RUGHUWRKHOSWKHUHDGHULQLGHQWLI\LQJDQDO\WLFDOWRROVWKDWPLJKWEHUHOHYDQWIRUVSHFLILFSXUSRVHVDQG REMHFWLYHV

(17)

$QQH[ ,, FRQWDLQV D EULHI GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH PDLQ HQHUJ\ VRXUFHV DQG WHFKQRORJLHV IRU HOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ

$QQH[,,,KLJKOLJKWVWKHSRWHQWLDOHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSULQFLSDOHQHUJ\

FKDLQVDQGSRZHUSODQWWHFKQRORJLHVIRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ

$QQH[ ,9 DGGUHVVHV LVVXHV UHODWHG WR DVVHVVLQJ DQG YDOXLQJ H[WHUQDO FRVWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVIURPHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQV\VWHPVGUDZLQJIURPSXEOLVKHGOLWHUDWXUHRQWKH VXEMHFWPDWWHU5HVXOWVIURPUHFHQWVFLHQWLILFUHVHDUFKSURMHFWVDQGVWXGLHVRQH[WHUQDOFRVWVRIHQHUJ\

FKDLQV IRU HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWLRQ DUH SUHVHQWHG DQG GLVFXVVHG 6RPH NH\ LVVXHV UHODWHG WR WKH DSSOLFDWLRQRIH[WHUQDOFRVWYDOXDWLRQDQGLQWHUQDOLVDWLRQPHWKRGRORJLHVLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJIRUWKH SRZHUVHFWRUDUHKLJKOLJKWHG

$QQH[ 9 UHYLHZV LVVXHV UHODWHG WR WKH WUHDWPHQW RI ODUJH DFFLGHQWV HJVHYHUH QXFOHDU DFFLGHQWV RLO WDQNHU ZUHFNV GDP UXSWXUHV ZLWKLQ WKH FRPSDUDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI HOHFWULFLW\

JHQHUDWLRQ RSWLRQV DQG VWUDWHJLHV ,W IRFXVHV RQ ULVN DVVHVVPHQW DQG LPSDFW HYDOXDWLRQ DQG WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI HIIHFWV IURP ORZ SUREDELOLW\KLJK FRQVHTXHQFH HYHQWV WRJHWKHU ZLWK LPSDFWV IURP URXWLQHRSHUDWLRQLQWRFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWVRIHQHUJ\FKDLQV

$QQH[9,LQWURGXFHVWKHFRQFHSWRI&RUSRUDWH,QWHJUDWHG5HVRXUFH3ODQQLQJ&,53WKURXJK DQ H[DPSOH RI LWV GHVLJQ DQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ $OWKRXJK WKLV H[DPSOH RI &,53 ZDV GHYHORSHGDQG LPSOHPHQWHG E\ D VSHFLILF FRPSDQ\ LW LOOXVWUDWHV WKH SUDFWLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI PDQ\ RI WKH LGHDV GHVFULEHG LQ WKLV ERRN 7KH SURFHVV RI LQWHUQDOLVLQJ H[WHUQDOLWLHV DQG LQYROYLQJ WKH SXEOLF LQ WKH GHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVDVLOOXVWUDWHGLQWKHH[DPSOHUHSUHVHQWVDQHQKDQFHGSURFHGXUHWKDWJRHV EH\RQGWKHWUDGLWLRQDOXWLOLW\RULHQWHGSODQQLQJDSSURDFK

$QQH[ 9,, SUHVHQWV D SUDFWLFDO H[DPSOH RI DQ DFWXDO 'HPDQG 6LGH 0DQDJHPHQW '60 SURJUDPPH 7KLV H[DPSOH LV LQWHQGHG WR KHOS LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH FRQFHSWV RI '60 DQG LWV LPSOHPHQWDWLRQDVGHVFULEHGLQWKHPDLQFKDSWHUVRIWKHERRNE\LOOXVWUDWLQJWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI'60 DW WKH XWLOLW\ OHYHO DQG KLJKOLJKWLQJ WKH PDLQ LVVXHV DQG GLIILFXOWLHV HQFRXQWHUHG E\ WKH XWLOLW\

$OWKRXJKWKHSURJUDPPHGHVFULEHGLQWKHH[DPSOHZDVLPSOHPHQWHGLQDQLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWU\LWLV LQSULQFLSOHDSSOLFDEOHLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVDOVR

$QQH[9,,,UHYLHZVDVDPSOHSUREOHPEDVHGRQDVWXG\FDUULHGRXWLQ7XUNH\LOOXVWUDWLQJWKH VWHSE\VWHSDSSURDFKWRGHFLVLRQDQDO\VLV

$QQH[,;*ORVVDU\JLYHVGHILQLWLRQVRIVRPHLPSRUWDQWWHUPVIRFXVLQJRQWKRVHUHODWHGWR FRQFHSWVLQWURGXFHGDQGXVHGLQWKHERRN,WVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHGWKDWWKHJORVVDU\LVQRWLQWHQGHGWREH H[KDXVWLYHLQFRYHUDJHDQGWKDWWKHGHILQLWLRQVSURYLGHGDOWKRXJKJHQHUDOO\UHIOHFWLQJDFRQVHQVXVRI YLHZVE\H[SHUWVLQWKHILHOGVWULFWO\DUHDSSOLFDEOHRQO\ZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHSUHVHQWERRNDQG PLJKWLQVRPHFDVHVGLIIHUIURPGHILQLWLRQVJLYHQLQRWKHUSXEOLVKHGOLWHUDWXUH

$QQH[;%LEOLRJUDSK\RIIHUVDOLVWRIVHOHFWHGERRNVUHSRUWVFRQIHUHQFHSDSHUVDQGDUWLFOHV IURP VFLHQWLILF MRXUQDOV RU WUDGH SXEOLFDWLRQV WKDW HODERUDWH IXUWKHU RQ VRPH PHWKRGRORJLFDO DQG WHFKQLFDO DVSHFWV GHDOW ZLWK LQ WKH ERRN DQG WKDW FRPSOHPHQW LWV FRQWHQW 7KH UHDGHU LV LQYLWHG WR FRQVXOWWKHVHGRFXPHQWVIRUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQRQPDQ\LVVXHVDGGUHVVHGRQO\EULHIO\LQWKLVUHIHUHQFH ERRN

(18)

5()(5(1&(672&+$37(5

[1] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, The DECADES Project - Outline and General Overview, DECADES Project Document No. 1, Vienna (1995).

[2] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Expansion Planning for Electrical Generating Systems: A Guidebook, Technical Reports Series No. 241, STI/DOC/10/241, Vienna (1984).

[3] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Health Impacts of Different Sources of Energy, Proc. of Int. Symp. (Nashville, 22-26 June 1981), IAEA Proceedings Series, STI/PUB/594, Vienna (1982).

[4] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Risks and Benefits of Energy Systems, (Proc. Int. Symp., Jülich, Germany, 9-13 April 1984), STI/PUB/668, Vienna (1984).

[5] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Format and Structure of a Database on Health and Environmental Impacts of Different Energy Systems for Electricity Generation, IAEA-TECDOC-645, Vienna (April 1992).

[6] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Methods for Comparative Risk Assessment of Different Energy Sources, IAEA-TECDOC-671, Vienna (October 1992).

[7] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY AND NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY (OECD), Nuclear Power: An Overview in the Context of Alleviating Greenhouse Gas Emissions, IAEA-TECDOC-793, Vienna (1995).

[8] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Guidance for Comparative Assessment of Health and Environmental Impacts of Electrical Energy Systems, Technical Reports Series No. xxx (in publication), Vienna (1998).

[9] WORLD BANK, Environmental Assessment Source Book, Technical Paper No. 140, Washington, D.C. (1991).

[10] MEIER, P. AND MUNASINGHE, M., Incorporating Environmental Concerns into Power Sector Decision Making: A Case Study of Sri Lanka, Environment Paper No. 6, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (1994).

[11] ADAMSON, S., BATES, R., LASLETT, R. AND POTOSCHNIG, A., Energy Use, Air Pollution and Environmental Policy in Krakow: Can Economic Incentives Really Help?, Technical Paper (Energy Series) No. 308, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (1996).

(19)

&+$37(5

(/(0(176)25&216,'(5$7,21

,1(1+$1&('(/(&75,&,7<6<67(0$1$/<6,6 *HQHUDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV

(OHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDQDO\VLVVKRXOGEHFDUULHGRXWZKLOHEHDULQJLQPLQGWKDWWKHSRZHUVHFWRU FRQVWLWXWHVRQHSDUWRIWKHHQWLUHHQHUJ\V\VWHPLVOLQNHGZLWKWKHRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFV\VWHPSURYLGHV VRFLDOEHQHILWVDQGKDVLPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW

(OHFWULFLW\DVDQHQHUJ\ YHFWRUKDVVSHFLILFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDWPDNHLWDWWUDFWLYHIRUPDQ\

HQGXVHSXUSRVHV,WLVHDV\WRGLVWULEXWHFOHDQDQGHIILFLHQWDWWKHHQGXVHSRLQWDQGKDVVRPHQRQ VXEVWLWXWDEOH XVHVHJOLJKWLQJ FRPPXQLFDWLRQV FRPSXWHUV HOHFWULF PRWRUV$FFHVVWR HOHFWULFLW\

VHUYLFHV KDV SURYHQ WR HQKDQFH HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW DQG VRFLDO ZHOIDUH )RU H[DPSOH HOHFWULILFDWLRQRIUXUDODUHDVLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVFRQWULEXWHVWRDEHWWHUGLVWULEXWLRQRIHPSOR\PHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGDPRUHHTXLWDEOHDFFHVVWRKHDOWKDQGHGXFDWLRQVHUYLFHVDVZHOODVLPSURYLQJWKH RYHUDOOVWDQGDUGRIOLYLQJ

)RUWKHVHUHDVRQVWKHVKDUHRIHOHFWULFLW\LQILQDOHQHUJ\KDVEHHQLQFUHDVLQJUDSLGO\DQGWKLV WUHQGLVH[SHFWHGWRFRQWLQXHLQSDUWLFXODULQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV:RUOGZLGHIXHOVIRUHOHFWULFLW\

JHQHUDWLRQUHSUHVHQWDERXWRIWRWDOHQHUJ\GHPDQGWRGD\DQGLWLVH[SHFWHGWKDWDWWKHHQGRIWKH QH[WWKUHHWRIRXUGHFDGHVPRUHWKDQRISULPDU\HQHUJ\ZLOOEHXVHGIRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ

(OHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQYDULHVVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWZHHQLQGXVWULDOLVHGDQGGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV ,QGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHVUHSUHVHQWOHVVWKDQRIWKHZRUOGSRSXODWLRQEXWFRQVXPHPRUHWKDQ RI WKH HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWHG ZRUOGZLGH 2Q DYHUDJH HOHFWULFLW\ FRQVXPSWLRQ SHU FDSLWD LV DURXQG N:KSHU\HDULQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVFRPSDUHGWRPRUHWKDQN:KRQDYHUDJHLQ(XURSH EXWPXFKKLJKHULQ6FDQGLQDYLDQFRXQWULHVDQGPRUHWKDQN:KLQ&DQDGDDQGWKH86$>@

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

7KH DQDO\VLV RI VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD DQG SDVW WUHQGV GRHV QRW DOORZ JHQHULF UHODWLRQVKLSV WR EH HVWDEOLVKHGEHWZHHQHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGSULPDU\HQHUJ\GHPDQGDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWK,QSDUWLFXODU HOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGJURZWKGHSHQGVQRWRQO\RQHFRQRPLFJURZWKEXWDOVRRQWKHUDWHRIVXEVWLWXWLRQ RIHOHFWULFLW\IRURWKHUHQHUJ\IRUPVLQFOXGLQJQRQFRPPHUFLDOHQHUJ\VRXUFHV1HYHUWKHOHVVJLYHQ WKHRXWORRNIRUSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQFUHDVLQJHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQSHUFDSLWDDQGWKHJURZLQJVKDUH RIHOHFWULFLW\LQWRWDOHQHUJ\ZRUOGGHPDQGIRUHOHFWULFLW\ZLOOFRQWLQXHWRJURZ

0RVWFXUUHQWWHFKQRORJLHVDYDLODEOHIRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ DUHFDSLWDOLQWHQVLYH7KHUHIRUHODUJHFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWVZLOOEHUHTXLUHGLQWKHSRZHUVHFWRULQRUGHU WR FRSH ZLWK JURZLQJ GHPDQG )RU GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DORQH WKH :RUOG (QHUJ\ &RXQFLO>@

HVWLPDWHGWKDWWKHLQYHVWPHQWUHTXLUHPHQWVZLOOEHVRPH86ELOOLRQSHU\HDULQRUGHUWRPHHW WKHSURMHFWHGHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGJURZWKXSWR$GGLWLRQDOLQYHVWPHQWVZLOOEHQHHGHGLQPDQ\

FRXQWULHVIRUPHHWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQJRDOV)RUH[DPSOHLQUHJLRQVZKHUHQHZUHJXODWLRQV DQGRU VWDQGDUGV ZLOOUHTXLUH FRQWUROV RQ VXOSKXU GLR[LGH DQG QLWURJHQ R[LGH HPLVVLRQV DQG ZKHUH QHLWKHUORZVXOSKXUFRDOQRUQDWXUDOJDVDUHDYDLODEOHWKHQHHGWRLQFRUSRUDWHDEDWHPHQWGHYLFHVZLOO LQFUHDVH LQYHVWPHQW FRVWV LQ WKH SRZHU VHFWRU E\ DW OHDVW VRPH WR 7KLV HPSKDVLVHV WKH LPSRUWDQFHRISHUIRUPLQJDFRPSUHKHQVLYHFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIGLIIHUHQWRSWLRQVLQWKHGHVLJQ

(20)

RIHFRQRPLFDOO\RSWLPLVHGDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOO\EHQLJQVWUDWHJLHVIRUWKHSRZHUVHFWRU6SHFLILFLVVXHV UHODWHGWRPRELOLVLQJWKHQHFHVVDU\ILQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVDUHDGGUHVVHGLQDUHFHQWO\SXEOLVKHGUHSRUWE\

WKH:RUOG(QHUJ\&RXQFLO>@

(FRQRPLF FRQVLGHUDWLRQV OHG WR WKH HDUO\ GHYHORSPHQW RI PHWKRGRORJLHV DQG PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOVGHVLJQHGIRUHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPH[SDQVLRQSODQQLQJSXUSRVHV7KHPRGHOVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKH SDVWZHUHRULHQWHGSULPDULO\WRZDUGVWKHDFKLHYHPHQWRIEXVLQHVVRULHQWHGJRDOVZLWKHPSKDVLVEHLQJ SODFHGPDLQO\RQPLQLPLVDWLRQRIFRVWHIILFLHQWDOORFDWLRQRIILQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVDQGUDWLRQDOXVHRI QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVPDWHULDOVDQGIXHOV

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

7UDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKWRSODQQLQJ

7KHWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKWRHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPSODQQLQJDVXVHGLQWKHSDVWZDVGULYHQE\WKH SULPDU\ REMHFWLYH RI SRZHU VHFWRU GHYHORSPHQW DW WKDW WLPH LHWR PHHW WKH DQWLFLSDWHG HOHFWULFLW\

GHPDQGDWWKHPLQLPXPGLUHFWFRVWWRWKHFRQVXPHU)RUWKLVSXUSRVHUDWKHUVRSKLVWLFDWHGJHQHUDWLRQ FDSDFLW\H[SDQVLRQRSWLPLVDWLRQPRGHOVZHUHGHYHORSHGDQGDSSOLHG2QHH[DPSOHRIVXFKSODQQLQJ WRROV LV WKH :$63 PRGHO>@ ZKLFK LV GHVLJQHG WR PLQLPLVH WKH WRWDO GLVFRXQWHG FRVW RI PHHWLQJ HOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGVRYHUVRPHSODQQLQJKRUL]RQXVXDOO\WR\HDUVDQGZLWKDVSHFLILHGOHYHORI V\VWHPUHOLDELOLW\

,Q WKH WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFK WKH DLP RI WKH SODQQLQJ SURFHVV LV WR GHWHUPLQH WHFKQLFDOO\

IHDVLEOHSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQH[SDQVLRQDOWHUQDWLYHVDQGWKHLUGHSOR\PHQWVFKHGXOHVWKDWPLQLPLVHWKH WRWDO V\VWHP FRVWV ZKLOHVDWLVI\LQJ FHUWDLQ VSHFLILHGFRQVWUDLQWV7KH PDLQ FRQVWUDLQWV LPSRVHG DUH WKDW WKH SURMHFWHG HOHFWULFLW\ GHPDQG EH PHW ZLWKLQ D VSHFLILHG PDUJLQ RI UHOLDELOLW\ WHFKQLFDO VSHFLILFDWLRQVDQGRSHUDWLQJFRQGLWLRQVEHPHWDQGWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQVFKHGXOHEHWHFKQLFDOO\DQG ILQDQFLDOO\ IHDVLEOH 7KH SODQQLQJ DFWLYLWLHV XQGHUWDNHQ ZLWKLQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFK DLP WRZDUGV>@

œ SUHSDULQJDFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWSURJUDPPHFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKH UHTXLUHGHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQIDFLOLWLHV

œ GHYHORSLQJ JXLGDQFH RQ JRYHUQPHQW SROLFLHV WKDW FRXOG EH XVHG WR LQIOXHQFH WKH GHYHORSPHQWRIWKHHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDLPLQJWRZDUGVDFKLHYLQJJRYHUQPHQWREMHFWLYHV HJUHGXFLQJHPLVVLRQVRIJUHHQKRXVHJDVHV

œ SURYLGLQJVLJQDOVWRWKHUHODWHGLQGXVWULHVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQVUHJDUGLQJIXWXUHRULHQWDWLRQV DQGWUHQGVLQWKHSRZHUVHFWRU

7KH SUHSDUDWLRQ RI FDSLWDO LQYHVWPHQW SURJUDPPHV KDV EHHQ WKH PDLQ JRDO RI HOHFWULFLW\

V\VWHPH[SDQVLRQSODQQLQJRZLQJWRWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIILQDQFLDODQGKXPDQUHVRXUFHVFRPPLWWHGE\

WKHVH SURJUDPPHV 7KH H[SDQVLRQ SODQV ZHUH EDVHG XSRQ GHWDLOHG DQG UHOLDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ

(21)

DOWHUQDWLYHRSWLRQVDQGV\VWHPVLQFOXGLQJFRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQF\RIHQHUJ\V\VWHPVUHOLDELOLW\DQG SHUIRUPDQFHRIWHFKQRORJLHVDQGFDSLWDODQGRSHUDWLQJFRVWVRIIDFLOLWLHV

*HQHUDOO\LQWKHWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKWRSRZHUVHFWRUSODQQLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV ZHUHQRWWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWLQDFRPSUHKHQVLYHZD\7KHUHIRUHGHFLVLRQVRQHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHVDQGHQHUJ\PL[HVZHUHEDVHGDOPRVWH[FOXVLYHO\RQFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIGLUHFW FRVWV+RZHYHUHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQFHUQVZHUHSDUWO\UHIOHFWHGWKURXJKWKHFRVWVRISROOXWLRQFRQWUROV UHTXLUHG IRU PHHWLQJ VWDQGDUGV DQG UHJXODWLRQV $OVR LQ WKH FDVH RI K\GUR SRZHU SURMHFWV HDVLO\

TXDQWLILDEOH VRFLDO FRVWV VXFK DV FRVWV RI UHVHWWOHPHQW DQG WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVWV RI IRUHJRQH SURGXFWLRQIURPLQXQGDWHGODQGDUHQRZURXWLQHO\LQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRHFRQRPLFDQDO\VHV

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

ZDVSDUWRIVXFKDVVHVVPHQWV

$OWKRXJK WKHUH DUH LQFUHDVLQJ PRYHV WRZDUGV SULYDWLVDWLRQ DQG GHUHJXODWLRQ RI WKH HOHFWULF SRZHU VHFWRU WKURXJKRXW WKH ZRUOG WKH WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFK VWLOO LV RI VRPH UHOHYDQFH 0RVW GHYHORSLQJFRXQWU\XWLOLWLHVWKDWDUHPRYLQJWRZDUGVSULYDWLVDWLRQDUHGRLQJVRRQDSLHFHPHDOEDVLV 1HZSODQWVPD\RUPD\QRWEHSULYDWHO\ILQDQFHGDQGRZQHG$SSURYDOVIRUWKHVHSODQWVKRZHYHU VWLOOGHSHQGRQXWLOLW\DQGJRYHUQPHQWUHYLHZDQGPDQ\VXFKµSULYDWHO\ILQDQFHG¶SODQWVUHO\RQORDQ JXDUDQWHHVIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOILQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV,QVRPHFDVHVILQDQFLQJIRUDQHZSODQWPD\EH HQWLUHO\ SULYDWH EXW WKH VDOH RI LWV HOHFWULFLW\ PD\ EH WKH VXEMHFW RI SXEOLF DJUHHPHQW ,I VR D FRPSUHKHQVLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH HQWLUH V\VWHP ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW WKH SURSRVHG HOHFWULFLW\ VDOHV DJUHHPHQWFRXOGEHXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHDIDLUSULFHIRUWKHHOHFWULFLW\VROG

6RFLDODQGHFRQRPLFFRQWH[W

7KH HYROXWLRQ WRZDUGV D PRUH FRPSUHKHQVLYH DSSURDFK WR HOHFWULFLW\ V\VWHP SODQQLQJ HPHUJHGIURPDEURDGHUUHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHQHHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHEURDGVRFLDOUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH SRZHUVHFWRU

7KH FRQFHSW RI VRFLDO UHVSRQVLELOLW\ FRYHUV D QXPEHU RI LVVXHV UDQJLQJ IURP ORFDO HPSOR\PHQW WR UDWLRQDO H[SORLWDWLRQ RI QDWLRQDO UHVRXUFHV ,W LPSOLHV D FRPSUHKHQVLYH DQDO\VLV RI QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGVRFLDOKHDOWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVDULVLQJDWDOOVWHSVRIWKH HQHUJ\FKDLQVFRQVWLWXWLQJWKHHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQV\VWHP

7KH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI WKH SRZHU V\VWHP DQDO\VLV DQG SODQQLQJ SURFHVV ZLWKLQ WKH VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLFFRQWH[WFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVDVKLIWIURPPLQLPLVLQJFRVWVLHGLUHFWFRVWVRIHOHFWULFLW\

SURGXFWLRQ WRPD[LPLVLQJ HIIHFWLYHQHVV 7KH FRQFHSW RI PD[LPLVLQJ HIIHFWLYHQHVV VKRXOG EH XQGHUVWRRGLQDEURDGVHQVHDVDQDWWHPSWWRILQGVROXWLRQVRSWLPLVHGIURPWKHYLHZSRLQWRIVRFLHW\

DVDZKROH,QWKLVFRQWH[WWKHSODQQLQJSURFHVVDLPVWRZDUGVVHHNLQJSUHIHUUHGVXSSO\DQGGHPDQG VLGHRSWLRQVDQGVWUDWHJLHVIRUVROYLQJSUHVHQWSUREOHPVLQWKHSRZHUVHFWRUHJVXSSO\VKRUWDJHV KLJKFRVWVQRQFRPSOLDQFHZLWKHQYLURQPHQWDOUHJXODWLRQVZKLOHDGGUHVVLQJYDULRXVREMHFWLYHVRI WKH HOHFWULFLW\ XWLOLWLHV WKH YDULRXV DFWRUV LQ WKH HQHUJ\ DQG RWKHU HFRQRPLF VHFWRUV DQG PRUH JHQHUDOO\DOO,$3V

7KLV VKLIW LQ HPSKDVLV HQWDLOV D WKRURXJK UHYLVLRQ RI WKH RYHUDOO REMHFWLYHV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH SRZHU VHFWRU DQG RI WKH SDUDPHWHUV GDWD DQG DVVXPSWLRQV WKDW KDYH WR EH FRQVLGHUHGLQDQDO\VLQJHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPV,QSDUWLFXODUWKHSRZHUVHFWRUKDVWREHDQDO\VHGDVRQH SDUWRIWKHHQWLUHHQHUJ\V\VWHPZLWKLQWKHRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOFRQWH[W

:LWKLQ WKLV PRUH FRPSUHKHQVLYH IUDPHZRUN LQGXVWULDO DFWLYLWLHV DUH DVVHVVHG WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQWLQVRIDUDVIHDVLEOHWKHLUWRWDOGLUHFWDQGLQGLUHFWFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVWRVRFLHW\DVDZKROH,Q WKLV SHUVSHFWLYH GHFLVLRQV IRU WKH SRZHU VHFWRU VKRXOG EH EDVHG XSRQ FRPSUHKHQVLYH FRVW

(22)

HIIHFWLYHQHVV DQDO\VLV DQG GULYHQ E\ WKH REMHFWLYH WR PD[LPLVH HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO EHQHILWV HJ*'3 SHU FDSLWD VHFXULW\ RI VXSSO\ TXDOLW\ RI OLIH WKURXJK WKH FKRLFH RI HQHUJ\ PL[HV PLQLPLVLQJWRWDOHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOFRVWV+RZHYHUWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUVRIWHQDUHGULYHQE\RWKHU VKRUW WHUP REMHFWLYHV VXFK DV FXVWRPHU VHUYLFH ULVN PDQDJHPHQW QHHG IRU ILQDQFLDO DQG WHFKQLFDO IOH[LELOLW\FRPSHWLWLYHQHVVHWF

'LIILFXOWLHVLQLPSOHPHQWLQJWKLVDSSURDFKDULVHIURPSUHVHQWPDUNHWLPSHUIHFWLRQVVHHWKH

*ORVVDU\IRUGHILQLWLRQVDQGWKHH[LVWHQFHRIH[WHUQDOLWLHVZKRVHFRVWVDUHQRWUHIOHFWHGLQWKHSULFHV RISURGXFWVDQGFRPPRGLWLHV>@

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

)URPWKHHFRQRPLFYLHZSRLQWPDUNHWLPSHUIHFWLRQVOHDGWRXQVDWLVIDFWRU\UHGLVWULEXWLRQRI UHYHQXHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP LQHTXDOLWLHV LQ WKH UHODWLYH SULFHV RI HOHFWULFLW\ DQG RWKHU HQHUJ\ FDUULHUV 6XFKLQHTXDOLWLHV PD\ EH LQ WKH IRUP RI VXEVLGLHV ZKLFK SUHYHQWIDLUFRPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQ HQHUJ\

VHUYLFHVXSSO\DOWHUQDWLYHV ,W PRVWFRPPRQO\LVH[SUHVVHGDVDGHFUHDVLQJSULFHVDOHVIXQFWLRQ,Q RUGHUWRUHGXFHSRVVLELOLWLHVWKDWDEXVLQHVVULVNPD\UHVXOWIURPPDUNHWLPSHUIHFWLRQVWKHXWLOLW\¶V FRQFHUQLVIRFXVHGRQPDUNHWPHFKDQLVPVHJDGYHUWLVLQJSULFLQJSURGXFWSROLF\IRULQIOXHQFLQJ LWVVKDUHLQWKHRYHUDOOHQHUJ\VXSSO\PDUNHW

2ZLQJ WR PDUNHW LPSHUIHFWLRQV SRZHU VHFWRU SODQQLQJ FDQQRW EH FDUULHG RXW RQO\ DW WKH SURMHFW OHYHO QRU EH EDVHG RQO\ RQ WKH XWLOLW\¶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

)RUWKLVSXUSRVHDIRUPDOLVHGPHWKRGVKRXOGEHXVHGQRWRQO\WRFRPSDUHWKHPHULWVRIDVHW RI DFWLRQV VXFK DV VXSSO\ VLGH LQYHVWPHQWV RU GHPDQG VLGH PDQDJHPHQW PHDVXUHV EXW DOVR WR GHWHUPLQHKRZWRLPSOHPHQWWKHFKRVHQDFWLRQVLQWKHUHDOZRUOG

,QRUGHUWRFUHDWHWKHFRQGLWLRQVIRULPSURYLQJWKHRYHUDOOHIILFLHQF\RISRZHUV\VWHPVIURPD EURDGVRFLDOYLHZSRLQWWZRW\SHVRIDFWLYLWLHVVKRXOGVXSSRUWGHFLVLRQPDNLQJVHH)LJXUH

œ HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI DPHWKRGRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN IRU LGHQWLI\LQJ DQG DVVHVVLQJ PDUNHW LPSHUIHFWLRQLQGLFDWRUVDQGLQFRUSRUDWLQJWKHPLQWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV

œ DGDSWDWLRQRIWKHRUJDQLVDWLRQDOIUDPHZRUNLQRUGHUWRDGMXVWSRZHUVHFWRUUHJXODWLRQV DLPLQJWRZDUGVLPSOHPHQWLQJWKHEHVWPHDVXUHVIRUFRUUHFWLQJPDUNHWLPSHUIHFWLRQVDQG OLPLWLQJLQHIILFLHQWDOORFDWLRQRIUHVRXUFHV

0HWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUN

$VSRLQWHGRXWDERYHWKHFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIORQJWHUPSRZHUV\VWHPGHYHORSPHQW DOWHUQDWLYHVVKRXOGWDNHLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHHQWLUHHQHUJ\V\VWHPDQGLQSDUWLFXODUWKHSDUWVWKDWDUH FRQQHFWHGGLUHFWO\WRWKHSRZHUVHFWRU$FFRUGLQJO\GHFLVLRQVLQWKHSRZHUVHFWRUKDYHWREHWDNHQLQ FRRUGLQDWLRQZLWKWKHRYHUDOOHQHUJ\SROLF\DQGZLWKLQWKHPDFURHFRQRPLFFRQWH[WRIWKHFRXQWU\RU UHJLRQ

$PXOWLOHYHOKLHUDUFKLFDODSSURDFKWRFRPSOH[HQHUJ\V\VWHPPRGHOOLQJSUHVHQWVDFRQVLVWHQW ZD\RIGHDOLQJZLWKOLQNVDQGLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQWHOHPHQWVDQGHFRQRPLFVHFWRUVWKDW

(23)

DUH UHODWHG WR WKH SRZHU VHFWRU 7KLV DSSURDFK RIIHUV D PHWKRGRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN IRU LQWHJUDWLQJ HOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPSODQQLQJLQWKHRSWLPLVDWLRQRIWKHRYHUDOOHQHUJ\V\VWHPZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH QDWLRQDOHFRQRP\

7KHKLHUDUFKLFDOVWUXFWXUHHJWKHQXPEHURIOHYHOVGHSHQGVRQWKHVFRSHRIWKHDQDO\VLVWR EHFDUULHGRXW)LJXUHLOOXVWUDWHVWKHFRQFHSWRIWKHKLHUDUFKLFDODSSURDFKE\VKRZLQJDWKUHHOHYHO VWUXFWXUHWKDWOLQNVWKHSRZHUVHFWRUWRWKHRYHUDOOHQHUJ\V\VWHPDQGWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\

),*$FWLYLWLHVIRUHIIHFWLYHDOORFDWLRQRIUHVRXUFHV

Overall concept of the efficient allocation of resources

Incorporation of market imperfection indicators into the decision making process ECONOMIC ISSUES

Demand and supply side measures

SOCIAL ISSUES Social, health and environmental impacts Methodological

framework

Organisational framework

Alternative approaches to correcting market imperfections

Market based approach

Regulation based approach

(24)

),*7KUHHOHYHOKLHUDUFKLFDOVWUXFWXUH

7KHDQDO\VLVSURFHVVLVFDUULHGRXWXVLQJDIDPLO\RILQWHUFRQQHFWHGPRGHOVWKDWUHIOHFWWKH SRVLWLRQRIWKHSRZHUV\VWHPZLWKLQWKHRYHUDOOHQHUJ\VXSSO\V\VWHPDQGWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\7KH PRGHOOLQJDSSURDFKVWDUWVDWWKHFRRUGLQDWLRQOHYHODQGHDFKVXERUGLQDWHOHYHOLVFRRUGLQDWHGZLWK WKH RQH DERYH $W HDFK OHYHO FRRUGLQDWLRQ LQIRUPDWLRQ LV UHFHLYHG IURP WKH KLJKHU OHYHOV DQG LQIRUPDWLRQJHQHUDWHGLVWUDQVPLWWHGEDFNXSWRWKHFRRUGLQDWLRQOHYHO(DFKOHYHOGHWHUPLQHVVRPH EDVLFSDUDPHWHUVRIFRRUGLQDWLRQ

œ WKH FRRUGLQDWLRQ OHYHO GHWHUPLQHV WKH HVWLPDWHG UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU ILQDO HQHUJ\ VXSSO\

DQGLWVVWUXFWXUHEDVHGXSRQH[SHFWDWLRQVDQGJRDOVIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHQDWLRQDO HFRQRP\

œ WKHHQHUJ\V\VWHPOHYHOGHWHUPLQHVWKHRSWLPDOHQHUJ\IORZDQGWKHHQGXVHIXHOPL[

œ WKHSRZHUVHFWRUOHYHOGHWHUPLQHVWKHPDUNHWVKDUHRIHDFKHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQ DVZHOOLWVFRUUHVSRQGLQJSULPDU\HQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ

2UJDQLVDWLRQDOIUDPHZRUN

7KHIUDPHZRUNVJRYHUQLQJHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVDQGVWULYLQJWRDFKLHYHDQHIILFLHQWDOORFDWLRQ DQG XVH RI UHVRXUFHV JHQHUDOO\ DUH LPSOHPHQWHG E\ JRYHUQPHQWV DW WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO 7KHVH IUDPHZRUNV LQFOXGH ODZV DQG UHJXODWLRQV HJHQYLURQPHQWDO UHJXODWLRQV DQG HPLVVLRQ VWDQGDUGV HQHUJ\ WDULIIV DQG WD[HV DQG D QXPEHU RI RWKHU PHDVXUHV DLPLQJ WRZDUGV PDNLQJ WKH HFRQRP\

EHQHILFLDOIRUWKHVRFLHW\DVDZKROH7KHRYHUDOOREMHFWLYHRIHFRQRPLFUHJXODWLRQLVWRKDUPRQLVH FRQIOLFWLQJ JRDOV VXFK DV VRFLDO DFFHSWDQFH HFRQRPLF FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV DQG HTXLW\ EHWZHHQ SUHVHQW DQGIXWXUHJHQHUDWLRQV

CO-ORDINATION LEVEL National Economy

SUBORDINATE LEVEL 1 Overall Energy System

SUBORDINATE LEVEL 2 Electric Power Sector

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

Die magnetischen Feldlinien sind als Kreise gezeichnet, die sich konzentrisch um den Strahler herum ausbreiten: (das H- Feld). Der sendende Generator liefert zum Zeitpunkt

Lösung: Sie erfolgt durch eine sich ausbreitende Wechselwirkung zwischen E-Feld und H-Feld.. Eine sich ausbreitende Wechselwirkung = Wechselstrom

Vhyhudo vwxglhv kdyh hvwlpdwhg wkh lq xhqfh ri edqn sduwlflsdwlrq lq d upv fdslwdo rq wkh lqwhuhvw udwh sdlg e| wkh upv1 Vfkplg +4&lt;&lt;9, xvhv d Khuqgdko lqgh{ wr phdvxuh

Wkh idfwru lv qhjdwlyh wklv wlph/ vr zhoiduh lqfuhdvhv zlwk ghfuhdvlqj T @o d@ h@o Lq idfw wkh zhoiduh hhfwv ri sxeolf lqirupdwlrq lq wkh Ehuwudqg dqg Frxuqrw frpshwlwlrq duh

Wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| glhuv iurp wkdw xqghu prqrsrolvwlf vxsso|1 Hvshfldoo| iru kljko| fruuhodwhg frvwv wkh rswlpdo vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw

IV tekstile - &#34;Kodu, kus räägitakse poliitikast&#34; - on iseloomulik &#34;lähedase&#34; temaatika suhteliselt keskmise &#34;lä- hedusastmega&#34; käsitlus, teema ja

DasstatischeGefühlhatbei diesem Künstler weniger das lastende Ruhende, sondern einen Zug von scharfer Gespanntheit und eine Straffung mit Betonung der Geraden und der spitzen

Hast du dich inzwischen damit abgefunden, dass du Semester für Semester Studiengebühren dafür bezahlen musst, dass du studie- ren darfst und freust du dich bereits auf eine