• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

9 3UHVHQWDWLRQRIUHVXOWV

3UHVHQWDWLRQRIUHVXOWVRQULVNVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\V\VWHPVLVDVXEMHFWRI RQJRLQJ GLVFXVVLRQV )RU WKH FDVH RI HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWLRQ WKH HVWLPDWHG GDPDJHV DUH IUHTXHQWO\

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

9 6RPHLQVLJKWVDQGH[DPSOHVRIUHVXOWV

9 &KDLQVSHFLILFQDWXUHRISRWHQWLDOVHYHUHDFFLGHQWV

%DVHGRQH[SHULHQFHDQGRQULVNDQDO\VLVVWXGLHVLWPD\EHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHSRWHQWLDOIRU VHYHUHDFFLGHQWVLVFRQFHQWUDWHGWRVSHFLILFSDUWVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\FKDLQV>@

(QHUJ\FKDLQ 7\SHVRISRWHQWLDOVHYHUHDFFLGHQWV

&RDO ([SORVLRQV RU ILUHV LQ XQGHUJURXQG PLQHV FROODSVH RI URRI RU ZDOOV LQ XQGHUJURXQG RU VXUIDFH PLQHV FROODSVH RI WDLOLQJ SLOHV YHKLFXODUDFFLGHQWVGXULQJWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ

2LO 2IIVKRUHULJDFFLGHQWVILUHVRUH[SORVLRQVUHVXOWLQJIURPOHDNVRU SURFHVV SODQW IDLOXUHV EORZRXWV RI RLO ZHOOV WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ DFFLGHQWV UHVXOWLQJ LQ ILUHV DQG H[SORVLRQV OHDNDJH IURP RLO VWRUDJHWDQNVOHDGLQJWRILUHVRUH[SORVLRQV

1DWXUDO*DV 6DPHDVIRURLOFKDLQ

1XFOHDU/:5V /RVVRIFRRODQWZDWHUUHDFWLYLW\WUDQVLHQWDQGUHDFWRUPHOWGRZQ DFFLGHQWVGXULQJVKLSPHQWRIKLJKOHYHOUDGLRDFWLYHZDVWH

+\GURSRZHU 5XSWXUHRURYHUWRSSLQJRIGDP

*HRWKHUPDO :HOOEORZRXWVUHVXOWLQJLQWKHUHOHDVHRIWR[LFJDVHV

%LRPDVV 1RWLGHQWLILHG

:LQG )DLOXUHRIODUJH URWDWLQJ HTXLSPHQW ZLWK EURNHQ SDUWV EHFRPLQJ PLVVLOHVLQGHQVHO\SRSXODWHGDUHDV

6RODU3KRWRYROWDLF 5HOHDVHRIWR[LFPDWHULDOVGXULQJSKRWRFHOOPDQXIDFWXUH 6RODU7KHUPDO 5HOHDVHRIWR[LFKHDWWUDQVIHUIOXLGV

9 ([DPSOHVRIUHVXOWVIURPFXUUHQWVWXGLHV

3DXO 6FKHUUHU ,QVWLWXWH 36, HVWDEOLVKHG UHFHQWO\ D GDWDEDVH RQ VHYHUH DFFLGHQWV ZLWK HPSKDVLVRQWKHHQHUJ\UHODWHGRQHV,WFRPELQHVWKHUHOHYDQWLQIRUPDWLRQSURYLGHGLQVXFKGDWDEDVHV DV2)'$5))0+,'$66,*0$DQG+68%VHH7DEOH9DQGDQXPEHURIDGGLWLRQDOVRXUFHV OLVWHG HDUOLHU &XUUHQWO\ WKH 36, GDWDEDVH FRQWDLQV LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ PRUH WKDQ HQHUJ\ UHODWHG DFFLGHQWV

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

:KLOHWKHLPPHGLDWHIDWDOLWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHDFFLGHQWDWWKH&KHUQRE\OQXFOHDUSRZHU SODQWKDYHEHHQLQFOXGHGLQ)LJXUH9WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJHVWLPDWHGGHOD\HGIDWDOLWLHVDUHVKRZQLQ )LJXUH9 1RUPDOLVDWLRQ ZDV FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ WKH ZRUOG WRWDO QXFOHDU HOHFWULFLW\ SURGXFWLRQ DFFXPXODWHGXSWRWKHHQGRI7KHFRQVHTXHQFHVVKRZQLQILJXUH9DUHEDVHGSULPDULO\RQWKH DVVHVVHGGRVHVUHFHLYHGE\WKHHPHUJHQF\ZRUNHUVµOLTXLGDWRUV¶DQGE\WKHSXEOLF7KLVDSSOLHVIXOO\

WRWKHHVWLPDWHGQXPEHURIFDQFHUVH[SHFWHGWRRFFXULQWKHIXWXUHDQGSDUWO\WRWKHUHVXOWVFRQFHUQLQJ IDWDOLWLHVLQWKHSHULRG)RUWKHODWWHUFDVHWKHUHLVKRZHYHUDQXPEHURIPDQLIHVWHGIDWDO FDQFHU FDVHV DPRQJ WKH µOLTXLGDWRUV¶ DQG DQ H[FHVVLYH QXPEHU LQ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK VSRQWDQHRXV LQFLGHQFHRIWK\URLGFDQFHUVDPRQJFKLOGUHQLQ8NUDLQHDQG%HODUXV)RUODWHQWFDQFHUIDWDOLWLHVDIWHU WKHLPSDFWRIXVLQJGRVHFXWRIIFULWHULDLVGHPRQVWUDWHG

)RUHQHUJ\FKDLQVRWKHUWKDQQXFOHDUWKHSRWHQWLDOGHOD\HGIDWDOLWLHVGXHWRVHYHUHDFFLGHQWV DUHRIDGLIIHUHQWQDWXUHDQGLWLVQRWSRVVLEOHWRPDNHHVWLPDWHVZLWKWKHFXUUHQWVWDWHRINQRZOHGJH 1RQHWKHOHVVWKH\DUHH[SHFWHGWREHRIPXFKORZHULPSRUWDQFHWKDQWKHLPPHGLDWHIDWDOLWLHV

7KHUHVXOWVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHV9DQG9ZKHQXVHGLQWKHFRQWH[WRIFXUUHQWDQGIXWXUH HOHFWULFLW\ VXSSO\ RSWLRQV DW WKH QDWLRQDO OHYHO PXVW EH LQWHUSUHWHG FDUHIXOO\ DQG SUHIHUDEO\

VXSSOHPHQWHGZLWKDSSOLFDEOH36$EDVHGUHVXOWV$VHODERUDWHGLQ5HIHUHQFH

œ 2QO\DOLPLWHGSDUWRIWKHVSHFWUXPRISRVVLEOHDFFLGHQWVLVUHIOHFWHGE\SDVWH[SHULHQFH 7KHUHDUHKRZHYHUODUJHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHYDULRXVHQHUJ\FKDLQVLQWHUPVRIWKH QXPEHU RI DFFLGHQWV WKDW RFFXUUHG DQG WKH DYHUDJH GDPDJH SHU DFFLGHQW WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHVDUHQRWH[SOLFLWO\DSSDUHQWIURP)LJXUHV9DQG9

7KH H[LVWLQJ GDWD DUH QRW KRPRJHQHRXV 7KLV PD\ EH GXH WR WHFKQRORJLFDO YDULDELOLW\

FRXQWU\WRFRXQWU\RUUHJLRQWRUHJLRQYDULDELOLW\WHPSRUDOFKDQJHVWHFKQRORJLFDOLQFUHDVHGKD]DUG DZDUHQHVV LPSURYHPHQWV LQ HIILFLHQF\ RI HPHUJHQF\ VHUYLFHV FKDQJHV LQ VDIHW\ UHJXODWLRQV FKDQJLQJ FRQVXPHU KDELWV GLIIHUHQFHV LQ GHILQLWLRQ DQG FDWHJRULVDWLRQ RI VHYHUH DFFLGHQWV DQG XQGHUUHSRUWLQJ

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear

Immediate fatalities per GW(e)-year

UN-est. 1991 (1969-’86) PSI-Database (1969-’86) PSI-Database (1969-’92)

6RXUFH36,GDWDEDVH1RYHPEHU

),*9&RPSDULVRQRIHQHUJ\UHODWHGVHYHUHDFFLGHQWGDWD

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Late fatalities per GW(e)-year

Liquidators (note 1) Thyroid cancers (note 2) Potential cancers (note 3)

1RWH 3RWHQWLDOIDWDOFDQFHUVDPRQJµOLTXLGDWRUV¶/RZHUSRUWLRQDSSOLHVWRWKHPRVWH[SRVHG JURXSXSSHUSRUWLRQUHSUHVHQWVDGGLWLRQDOSRWHQWLDOFDQFHUVDPRQJWKHOLTXLGDWRUV 1RWH 7K\URLGFDQFHUIDWDOLWLHVDPRQJFKLOGUHQWKURXJKHQGRI

1RWH 3RWHQWLDO FDQFHUV LQ JHQHUDO SRSXODWLRQ /RZHU SRUWLRQ DSSOLHV WR WKH PRVW FRQWDPLQDWHG DUHDV ,$($ >@ XSSHU SRUWLRQ UHSUHVHQWV DGGLWLRQDO SRWHQWLDO FDQFHUV LQ WKH JOREDO SRSXODWLRQ EDVHG RQ WRWDO GRVH FRPPLWPHQW 816&($5

>@

6RXUFH36,GDWDEDVH1RYHPEHU ),*9'HOD\HGIDWDOLWLHVHVWLPDWHGIRUWKHFKHUQRE\ODFFLGHQW

œ

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

$V DOUHDG\ LPSOLHG E\ WKH DERYH VXPPDU\ RI WKH FKDLQVSHFLILF QDWXUH RI SRWHQWLDO VHYHUH DFFLGHQWVGLIIHUHQWSDUWVRIHQHUJ\FKDLQVSURYLGHWKHGRPLQDQWFRQWULEXWLRQVWRWKHHVWLPDWHGIDWDOLW\

UDWHV 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH VSHFLILF FRQILJXUDWLRQ RI D QDWLRQDO HOHFWULFLW\ VXSSO\ WKLV PD\ DIIHFW SULRULWLVDWLRQLQWKHFRQWH[WRIFRPSDUDWLYHHYDOXDWLRQV)RUH[DPSOHPRVWRIWKHVHYHUHDFFLGHQWVLQ WKHFRDOFKDLQRFFXULQPLQLQJZLWKLQWKHRLOFKDLQDFFLGHQWVGXULQJWUDQVSRUWDWLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ FOHDUO\ DUH GRPLQDQW LQ WKH FDVH RI QXFOHDU DQG K\GUR ODUJH GDPV WKH VHYHUH DFFLGHQW ULVNV DUH DVVRFLDWHGPDLQO\ZLWKWKHSRZHUSODQWV

)LJXUHV9DQG9VKRZWKHQRUPDOLVHGIUHTXHQF\FRQVHTXHQFHFXUYHVIRUYDULRXVHQHUJ\

FKDLQV>@,QWKHFRQWH[WRILPPHGLDWHIDWDOLWLHV)LJXUH9ZRUOGZLGHKLVWRULFDODFFLGHQWGDWDLQ WKHSHULRGZHUHXVHG7KHUHVXOWVIRUWKH0KOHEHUJQXFOHDUSRZHUSODQWLQ6ZLW]HUODQG VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH9RULJLQDWHIURP WKH SODQWVSHFLILF 36$>@ DQGUHSUHVHQWODWHQWIDWDOLWLHVWKH GLIIHUHQWFXUYHVLOOXVWUDWHWKHRXWFRPHRIXQFHUWDLQW\SURSDJDWLRQ7KHUDQJHRIYDOXHVIRUSUHGLFWHG ODWHQWIDWDOLWLHVIURP&KHUQRE\OJLYHQLQ)LJXUH9UHIOHFWVWKHLPSDFWRIXVLQJDGRVHFXWRII7KH ODUJH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH 36$EDVHG UHVXOWV REWDLQHG IRU 0KOHEHUJ DQG WKH H[SHULHQFHEDVHG

&KHUQRE\OUHVXOWVLOOXVWUDWHVRQFHDJDLQWKHOLPLWDWLRQVLQDSSOLFDELOLW\RISDVWDFFLGHQWGDWDWRFDVHV WKDWDUHUDGLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWLQWHUPVRIWHFKQRORJ\DQGRSHUDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQW

),*9)UHTXHQF\FRQVHTXHQFHFXUYHVLPPHGLDWHIDWDOLWLHVIRUGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\FKDLQV EDVHGRQKLVWRULFDODFFLGHQWVZRUOGZLGHLQWKHSHULRG±

1.E-5 1.E-4 1.E-3 1.E-2 1.E-1

1 10 100 1,000 10,000

Number of immediate fatalities, X, per event Coal Oil

Natural Gas Hydro power Nuclear (Chernobyl)

1.E-9 1.E-8 1.E-7 1.E-6 1.E-5 1.E-4 1.E-3

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Number of latent fatalities, X, per event 95% confidence

Mean value 50% confidence 5% confidence

Chernobyl

IAEA, 1996

UNSCEAR, 1993

Legend for curves

),*9)UHTXHQF\FRQVHTXHQFHFXUYHVODWHQWIDWDOLWLHVIRUQXFOHDUSRZHU

>EDVHGRQ36$IRUWKH0KOHEHUJ3ODQW6ZLW]HUODQG DQG&KHUQRE\OZLWKDQGZLWKRXWGRVHFXWRII@

7KHIXOOVFRSHQXFOHDU36$DSSURDFKSURYLGHVUHVXOWVLQWKHIRUPRIIUHTXHQF\FRQVHTXHQFH I1GLDJUDPVDQGLQWHJUDWHGULVNHVWLPDWHVIRUDZLGHUDQJHRIFRQVHTXHQFHV7\SLFDOO\UHSRUWHG ULVN HVWLPDWHV LQFOXGH QXPEHU RI HDUO\ DFXWH IDWDOLWLHV DQG LQMXULHV QXPEHU RI ODWHQW FDQFHU IDWDOLWLHVWRWDOSRSXODWLRQGRVHIURPDOOSDWKZD\VLQGLYLGXDOULVNRIGHDWKDQGLQGLYLGXDOSUREDELOLW\

RI ODWHQW FDQFHU IDWDOLW\ LQWHUGLFWHG DQG FRQGHPQHG ODQG DUHD )RU RWKHU HQHUJ\ V\VWHPV D YHU\

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µUHDO¶ORVVLQFOXGLQJDOVRWKHLQGLUHFWGDPDJHV

7KHFRQWULEXWLRQRIVHYHUHDFFLGHQWVWRWKHH[WHUQDOFRVWVRISRZHUSURGXFWLRQSDUWLFXODUO\E\

QXFOHDUSRZHUSODQWVLVDPXFKGHEDWHGLVVXH,QIDFWEDVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVRIDQXPEHURIVWXGLHV FDUULHGRXWEHWZHHQDQGWKHGLVFUHSDQFLHVEHWZHHQWKHUHVXOWVDUHE\IDUODUJHVWZKHQWKH HVWLPDWHVRIWKHQRUPDOLVHGFRVWVRIQXFOHDUDFFLGHQWVDUHFRQVLGHUHG7KHHVWLPDWHGYDOXHVFRYHUD UDQJHRIVRPHILYHRUGHUVRIPDJQLWXGH

$VHODERUDWHGLQ>@WKHIDFWRUVDQGIHDWXUHVWKDWKDYHWKHPDMRULQIOXHQFHRQWKHUHVXOWVDUH DSSURDFKHVXVHGIRUWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIDFFLGHQWIUHTXHQF\DQGPDJQLWXGHRIFRQVHTXHQFHVVFRSHRI DQDO\VLV QDWXUH RI ULVN LQWHJUDWLRQ LQ SDUWLFXODU DFFRXQWLQJ IRU ULVN DYHUVLRQ DQG HFRQRPLF

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

9 &XUUHQWLVVXHVLQFRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIVHYHUHDFFLGHQWV

7KHIROORZLQJVKRUWVXPPDU\RILVVXHVVKRXOGQRWEHUHJDUGHGDVH[KDXVWLYHEXWLWFDQVHUYH DVDUHPLQGHUWKDWZKLOHWKHWRSLFRIVHYHUHDFFLGHQWVSOD\VDUDWKHULPSRUWDQWUROHLQSROLF\PDNLQJ IRUWKHSRZHUVHFWRUWKHUHDUHDQXPEHURITXHVWLRQVWKDWUHPDLQRSHQ>@

œ 1RQXQLIRUPOHYHORINQRZOHGJHDQGOLPLWHGVFRSHRIDSSOLFDWLRQVRIULVNDQDO\VLV)HZ FRPSUHKHQVLYH 36$45$ VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ SHUIRUPHG IRU HQHUJ\ FKDLQV RWKHU WKDQ QXFOHDUDOWKRXJKWKHUHLVDVWHDGLO\JURZLQJQXPEHURIDSSOLFDWLRQVIRURIIVKRUHIXHO WUDQVSRUW UHILQHULHV JDV VWRUDJH HWF 5HJUHWWDEO\ IHZ VXFK VWXGLHV DUH SXEOLVKHG DQG DYDLODEOHWRSRWHQWLDOXVHUV

œ 'LIILFXOWLHVWRFRYHUDZLGHUDQJHRIFRQVHTXHQFHVLQDFRQVLVWHQWPDQQHU7KHUHLVD GLVFUHSDQF\EHWZHHQWKHZLGHUDQJHRIFRQVHTXHQFHFDWHJRULHVFRYHUHGE\WKHGHILQLWLRQ RI VHYHUH DFFLGHQWV DQG WKH FXUUHQW SRVVLELOLWLHV WR TXDQWLI\ WKHLU H[WHQW DQG WKH DVVRFLDWHGOLNHOLKRRGIRUGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\WHFKQRORJLHV)RUWKLVUHDVRQFRPSDULVRQVRI TXDQWLWDWLYHLQGLFDWRUVXVXDOO\DUHOLPLWHGWRYHU\IHZFDWHJRULHV

œ 7UHDWPHQW RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI LPSDFWV LQ WLPH DQG VSDFH *L YHQ WKH L QFUHDVHG XQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHORQJUDQJHDVVHVVPHQWVWKHUHLVDQHHGWRDJUHHRQUHDVRQDEOHDQDO\VLV ERXQGDULHVWKDWUHIOHFWWKHSULRULWLHVRIGHFLVLRQPDNHUV7KLVLVVXHDSSOLHVDOVRLQWKH FRQWH[WRIDVVHVVLQJLPSDFWVIURPQRUPDORSHUDWLRQ

œ $SSOLFDELOLW\ DQG WUDQVIHUDELOLW\ RI VHYHUH DFFLGHQW GDWD :KHQ DQDO\VLQJ D VSHFLILF IDFLOLW\DQ\XVHRIJHQHULFRUSODQWVSHFLILFGDWDDYDLODEOHIRUDSODQWRWKHUWKDQWKHRQH EHLQJ H[DPLQHG PXVW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WHFKQRORJLFDO RSHUDWLRQDO FXOWXUDO DQG HQYLURQPHQWDOGLIIHUHQFHV7KLVLQHYLWDEO\LQYROYHVXVHRIMXGJHPHQW

œ 7UHDWPHQW RI ULVN DYHUVLRQ DQG QRQTXDQWLILDEOH VRFLDO GHWULPHQWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK H[WUHPH DFFLGHQWV )XUWKHU UHVHDUFK KRSHIXOO\ ZLOO KHOS WR LPSURYH DQG EDODQFH WKH FXUUHQWO\QRWYHU\HQFRXUDJLQJVLWXDWLRQEXWLVQRWH[SHFWHGWRUHVROYHIXOO\WKLVLVVXHLQ WKHQHDUIXWXUH

5()(5(1&(672$11(;9

[1] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Comparative Assessment of the Health and Environment Impacts of Various Energy Systems from Severe Accidents, Working Material, Proceedings of a Technical Committee Meeting Organized by the IAEA, 1 - 3 June 1992, Vienna (1992).

[2] HIRSCHBERG S., SPIEKERMAN G. AND DONES R., Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector, PSI Report, Paul Scherrer Institute, Würenlingen and Villigen, (to be published 1998).

[3] FRITZSCHE, A.F., The Health Risks of Energy Production, Risk Analysis, 9(1989)565.

[4] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Electricity and the Environment: Key Issues Papers (Publication from a Senior Expert Symposium, Helsinki, May 1991), STI/PUB/899, Vienna (1991).

[5] HIRSCHBERG, S., “Framework for and Current Issues in Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of Electricity Generating Systems”, in Electricity, Health and the Environment:

Comparative Assessment in Support of Decision Making (Proc. Int. Symp., Vienna, 16-19 October 1995), IAEA, Vienna (1996).

[6] PRATT, J.W., Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large, Econometrica, 32(1964)122.

[7] ARROW, K.J., Essays in the Theory of Risk Bearing, North Holland, Amsterdam, 1974.

[8] KRUPNICK, A.J., MARKANDYA, A. AND NICKELL, E., “The External Costs of Nuclear Power: Ex Ante Damages and Lay Risks”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75(1993)1273.

[9] INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, Background Papers 1-8, EC/IAEA/WHO International Conference, One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing Up the Consequences of the Accident, 8-12 April 1996, IAEA Proceedings Series, Vienna (1996).

[10] UNITED NATIONS SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON THE EFFECTS OF ATOMIC RADIATION, 1993 Report to the United Nations General Assembly (with Annexes), United Nations Sales Publication E.94.IX.2, United Nations, New York (1993).

[11] UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION, Severe Accidents Risks:

An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants, Final Summary Report, Report NUREG-1150, Washington, D.C. (1990).

[12] CAZZOLI ET AL., A Regulatory Evaluation of the Mühleberg Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Volume II: Level 2 (Limited Distribution), ERI/HSK 93-304, HSK 11/356 (1993).

[13] HIRSCHBERG, S., “External Costs of Electric Power Generation: Are Accidents Adequately Treated?”, Schweizer Ingenieur und Architekt, 20(1995)469.

$11(;9,

&25325$7(,17(*5$7('5(6285&(3/$11,1*

$675$7(*,&3/$11,1*,138772%86,1(663/$11,1*>@

6800$5<

,Q0D\WKH3UHVLGHQWDVNHG&RUSRUDWH6WUDWHJLF3ODQQLQJWROHDGDQLQWHJUDWHGUHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ H[HUFLVH WR LQYHVWLJDWH LQYHVWPHQW GLUHFWLRQV DV DQ LQSXW WR WKH IROORZLQJ \HDU¶V EXVLQHVV SODQQLQJSURFHVV.H\HOHPHQWVRILQWHJUDWHGUHVRXUFHSODQQLQJZHUHWREHDSSOLHGVXFKDV

œ LQFOXGLQJDZLGHUDQJHRIHQHUJ\VHUYLFHRSWLRQV

œ LQWHJUDWLQJWKHHQYLURQPHQWZLWKHFRQRPLFVDQGXVLQJIXOOFRVWDFFRXQWLQJWRWKHH[WHQW SRVVLEOH

œ LQFOXGLQJXQFHUWDLQW\E\FRQVLGHULQJNH\HOHFWULFLW\EXVLQHVVULVNVDQG

œ LQYROYLQJH[WHUQDOVWDNHKROGHUVWKURXJKRXWWKHSURFHVV

%DVHGRQWKHVHHOHPHQWVRI,53DQGWKHSXUSRVHRIWKHH[HUFLVHDFURVVEXVLQHVVXQLWWHDP ZDVIRUPHGLQFOXGLQJUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVIURPERWKXQLRQVDQGWKHWHDPRSHUDWHGE\FRQVHQVXV$Q PHPEHUH[WHUQDO5HYLHZ*URXSZDVIRUPHGWRDGYLVHWKHLQWHUQDOWHDPDWNH\VWDJHVWKURXJKRXWWKH SURFHVV 7KH 5HYLHZ *URXS UHSUHVHQWHG D ZLGH UDQJH RI FXVWRPHU FRQVXPHU HQYLURQPHQW DQG EXVLQHVV SHUVSHFWLYHV 7KH HQWLUH SURFHVV LV NQRZQ DV +\GUR¶V &RUSRUDWH ,QWHJUDWHG 5HVRXUFH 3ODQQLQJ &,53 $V ZHOO DV LQYHVWLJDWLQJ LQYHVWPHQW GLUHFWLRQV &,53 ZDV WR UHFRPPHQG GUDIW VWUDWHJLFJXLGHOLQHVDVDQLQSXWWREXVLQHVVSODQQLQJ

&,53 LV DQ H[SHULPHQW ZLWK D FRUSRUDWH VWUDWHJLFOHYHO SODQQLQJ H[HUFLVH LQ D +\GURFRQWUROOHG SURFHVV 7KH SURFHVV XVHG D µJRDOV DQG REMHFWLYHV¶ DSSURDFK LGHQWLI\LQJ IRXU REMHFWLYHV GUDZQ IURP +\GUR¶V PLVVLRQ VWDWHPHQW 6HYHQ GLIIHUHQW SRUWIROLRV RU FRPELQDWLRQV RI RSWLRQVUHSUHVHQWLQJYDULRXVLQYHVWPHQWGLUHFWLRQVZHUHFRQVWUXFWHGWRPHHWRQHRUPRUHRIWKH&,53 REMHFWLYHV $ QXPEHU RI DVVHVVPHQW FULWHULD ZHUH GHULYHG IURP WKH REMHFWLYHV DJDLQVW ZKLFK WKH SRUWIROLRVZHUHDVVHVVHGFULWHULDVXFKDVQHWSUHVHQWYDOXHFRVWVGDPDJHWRWKHHQYLURQPHQWKHDOWK DQGVDIHW\ULVNHIILFLHQF\FRPPXQLW\EHQHILWVQHWLQFRPHDQGGHEWUDWLR

7KHSHUIRUPDQFHRIHDFKSRUWIROLRZDVDVVHVVHGDQGHYDOXDWHGXVLQJIRXUGLIIHUHQWPHWKRGV 2QHPHWKRGDVVXPHGPHGLDQFRQGLWLRQVLHPHGLDQORDGIRUHFDVWFRVWHVWLPDWHVGLVFRXQWUDWHVDQG FXUUHQWSURYLVLRQVRIWKH3RZHU&RUSRUDWLRQ$FWDQGXVHGDPXOWLFULWHULDDVVHVVPHQWWRDVVLVWLQWKH HYDOXDWLRQRIWKHSRUWIROLRV7ZRRWKHUPHWKRGVIRUPHGWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VHVRQHXVLQJVFHQDULR DQDO\VHV DQG WKH RWKHU XVLQJ VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VHV 7KH VFHQDULRV LQFOXGHG µRSHQ DFFHVV¶ HFRQRPLF F\FOHVDQGDVXVWDLQDEOHHQHUJ\IXWXUH2QHRSHQDFFHVVVFHQDULRDVVXPHGFRPSHWLWLRQLQJHQHUDWLRQ WRVXSSO\WKHSRZHUSRRODQGWKHRWKHUDVVXPHGIXOOUHWDLODFFHVV7KHVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VHVLQFOXGHG QXFOHDU SHUIRUPDQFH DQG IXHOV SULFHV 7KH IRXUWK DVVHVVPHQW XVHG VXUYH\ GDWD WR WDNH D FXVWRPHU SHUVSHFWLYHLQHYDOXDWLQJSRUWIROLRV

>@ 1RWH

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

&LWDWLRQVWRDQ\PDWHULDOIURPWKHRULJLQDOGRFXPHQWZKLFKLVQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKLVDQQH[DUHJLYHQLQLWDOLFV

7KHVLJQLILFDQWILQGLQJVIURP&,53DUH 7KHH[LVWLQJV\VWHPLVKLJKO\YDOXHGEHFDXVH

œ DKLJKSRUWLRQRIWRWDOHQHUJ\FDQEHSURYLGHGDWORZPDUJLQDOFRVWVZLWKRXWWKHQHHGIRU PDMRUFDSLWDOUHLQYHVWPHQWLQWKHQHDUWHUPQH[WWR\HDUV

œ WKHUH LV VXIILFLHQW IOH[LELOLW\ WR SURYLGH DGGLWLRQDO FDSDFLW\ DQG HQHUJ\ LI DQG ZKHQ QHHGHGWKURXJKVKRUWOHDGWLPHRSWLRQVHJWZR\HDUVRUOHVVE\UHWXUQLQJPRWKEDOOHG XQLWV

œ WKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQFOXGLQJH[LVWLQJUHDOHVWDWHSURYLGHVRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRUHXVHRUGHULYH DGGLWLRQDO EHQHILWV IURP H[LVWLQJ VLWHV HJ+HDUQ /DNHYLHZ 1LDJDUD RU 0DWDJDPL UHGHYHORSPHQW DQG WUDQVPLVVLRQGLVWULEXWLRQ ULJKWVRIZD\ HJFRPPXQLFDWLRQV ZLWK FXVWRPHUV

$IXWXUHV\VWHPWKDWDGRSWVDGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQDSSURDFKSHUIRUPVMXVWDVZHOODVDPRUH WUDGLWLRQDO FHQWUDOL]HG JHQHUDWLRQ DSSURDFK XQGHU PHGLDQ FRQGLWLRQV EDVHG RQ WKH &,53 WHDP¶V PXOWLFULWHULD DVVHVVPHQW 8QGHU WKH VFHQDULR DQDO\VHV WKH GLVWULEXWHG DSSURDFK SHUIRUPV EHWWHU EHFDXVH LW DOORZV JUHDWHU IOH[LELOLW\ ZLWK ORZHU HVWLPDWHG LPSDFWV LQ UHVSRQGLQJWRFKDQJHV)RUH[DPSOHGLVWULEXWHGUHVRXUFHRSWLRQVDUHPRUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKH RSHQDFFHVVVFHQDULRVGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQDOORZVPRUHHQWUDQWVDQGRZQHUVKLSQHHGQRW EH RQO\ 2QWDULR +\GUR RWKHUV FRXOG GHYHORS DQG ILQDQFH WKH JHQHUDWLRQ RSWLRQV DOORZLQJ UHGXFWLRQLQ+\GUR¶VFXUUHQWOHYHORIIL[HGFRVWVDQGDVKDULQJRIULVNVGLVWULEXWHGUHVRXUFHV KDYHVKRUWHUOHDGWLPHVIRUPRVWRSWLRQVZKLFKLPSURYHVORDGWUDFNLQJDQGUHGXFHVULVNVRI VWUDQGLQJLQYHVWPHQWV

$VDSUR[\IRUGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQ&,53XVHGJHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQVWKDWDUHFDSDEOHRIEHLQJ ORFDWHG LQ FORVH SUR[LPLW\ WR WKH DUHD RI FXVWRPHU GHPDQG 1DWXUDO JDVILUHG WHFKQRORJLHV SURYLGH WKH EXON RI WKH QHZ JHQHUDWLRQ UHVRXUFHV FRPEXVWLRQ WXUELQH XQLWV &78V LQ PXQLFLSDOLWLHVFRPELQHGF\FOH&78VHJUHSRZHULQJDW/DNHYLHZDQGLQPXQLFLSDOLWLHV FRJHQHUDWLRQHJLQGXVWULDOVLWHVDQGGLVWULFWHQHUJ\XVLQJ&78FRPELQHGF\FOHHJLQKLJK GHQVLW\DUHDVVXFKDV+HDUQLQ7RURQWR

3HUKDSVPRVWLPSRUWDQWO\WKHGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQDSSURDFKDOVRSURYLGHVDµSODWIRUPIRU WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI KLJKO\ GLVWULEXWHG WHFKQRORJLHV DV WKH\ EHFRPH DYDLODEOH 8OWLPDWHO\ D JUHDWHUUHOLDQFHRQUHQHZDEOHWHFKQRORJLHVZLOOPHDQDKLJKO\GLVWULEXWHGXVHRISKRWRYROWDLF RU RWKHU WHFKQRORJ\ IRU LQGLYLGXDO KRPHV RU VPDOO FOXVWHUV RI UHVLGHQWLDO KRXVLQJ RU KLJK HIILFLHQF\ QRQUHQHZDEOH RSWLRQV HJIXHO FHOOV DW FRPPHUFLDO FHQWUHV VXFK DV RIILFHV PDOOVVFKRROVDQGKRVSLWDOV

&KDQJHVLQPHGLDQDVVXPSWLRQVDVLGHIURPFKDQJHVLQFXVWRPHUGHPDQGDVLGHQWLILHGLQWKH VFHQDULRVWKDWUHVXOWLQWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWLPSDFWVDUHLFKDQJHVLQQXFOHDUSHUIRUPDQFH DQGLLFKDQJHV LQ WKH ORQJ WHUP QDWXUDO JDV SULFH SURMHFWLRQ /RZHU QXFOHDU SHUIRUPDQFH HLWKHUOLIHWLPHRIXQLWVRUORZHUDYHUDJHFDSDFLW\IDFWRUVLVDFXUUHQWULVNDQGKLJKHU QDWXUDO JDV SULFHV DUH D ORQJ WHUP ULVN EH\RQG LI DQG ZKHQ JDV XVH EHFRPHV VXEVWDQWLDO

/RZHUQXFOHDUSHUIRUPDQFHFDQDGYDQFHWKHQHHGIRUDFLGJDV12[UHGXFWLRQRSWLRQVWRDERXW WKH\HDUDQGFDQDGYDQFHDFWLRQVWRUHGXFHRURIIVHW&2HPLVVLRQVE\WKUHH\HDUVWR DQGLQFUHDVHDQQXDOFRVWVE\DERXW0

+LJKHUQDWXUDOJDVSULFHVE\RYHUPHGLDQFDQUHVXOWLQDQDQQXDOFRVWLPSDFWRIDERXW 0 IRU DERXW 7:K RI HOHFWULFLW\ SURGXFHG IURP JDVILUHG FRJHQHUDWLRQ FRPELQHG F\FOHDQGGLVWULFWHQHUJ\RSWLRQVDWWRGD\¶VOHYHORIHIILFLHQF\

/RZHUQDWXUDOJDVSULFHVLHQRUHDOSULFHLQFUHDVHVZRXOGUHGXFHFRVWVE\DERXW0 SHU\HDUFRPSDUHGWRPHGLDQFRQGLWLRQV+LJKHUQXFOHDUSHUIRUPDQFHLPSURYHPHQWLQ DYHUDJH FDSDFLW\ IDFWRUV ZRXOG UHGXFH DQQXDO FRVWV E\ 0 WKHUHE\ DFFHOHUDWLQJ GHEW UHGXFWLRQDQGZRXOGDOVRGHIHUDQ\PDMRULQYHVWPHQWVIRU12[RU&2UHGXFWLRQV

7KH VWUDWHJLF JXLGHOLQHV WKDW DULVH IURP WKH &,53 SURFHVV DQG IURP +\GUR¶V &RQVROLGDWHG 0DQDJHPHQW&RPPLWWHHZRUNVKRSZKHUHGUDIWJXLGHOLQHVZHUHSUHVHQWHGXQGHUVFRUHWKHIROORZLQJ

œ WKHXQEXQGOLQJRIFRVWVDQGGHYHORSLQJVHJUHJDWHGFXVWRPHUFRVWUHYHQXHGDWDEDVHVLV FRQVLVWHQWZLWKDQXPEHURIIXWXUHVEHFDXVHLWSURYLGHVIOH[LELOLW\WRDGMXVWFXVWRPHUUDWH RSWLRQVDVUHTXLUHGE\WKHEXVLQHVVHQYLURQPHQW

œ HQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\RSSRUWXQLWLHVVKRXOGEHWDUJHWHGIRUWKHLUILQDQFLDOEHQHILWWR2QWDULR +\GURRULWVFXVWRPHUVLQDJJUHJDWH

œ HOHFWURWHFKQRORJLHV WKDW FDQ LQFUHDVHUHWDLQ +\GUR¶V PDUNHW VKDUH RU UHGXFH ORVV RI PDUNHWVKDUHRIHOHFWULFLW\VXSSO\VKRXOGEHSXUVXHGZKHQWKHUHLVDQHWEHQHILWWRWKH HQYLURQPHQWDQGWR2QWDULR+\GURRULWVFXVWRPHUV

œ K\GURHOHFWULF UHLQYHVWPHQW WR PDLQWDLQ DQG LPSURYH WKH H[LVWLQJ V\VWHP DUH SUHIHUUHG EXWOLPLWHGE\DIIRUGDELOLW\

œ RSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUKLJKHIILFLHQF\FRJHQHUDWLRQHJGLVWULFWHQHUJ\DUHWKHPRVWO\OLNHO\

W\SHRIPDMRUUHLQYHVWPHQWVWREHPDGHDWH[LVWLQJIRVVLOJHQHUDWLRQVLWHV

œ H[SHFWHG OHYHOV RI HQHUJ\ SURGXFWLRQ HJ WR FDSDFLW\ IDFWRUV DV D V\VWHP DYHUDJH IURP QXFOHDU XQLWV QHHGV WR EH DFKLHYHG XVLQJ H[LVWLQJ RU HYHQ IHZHU UHVRXUFHV

œ JULGLQYHVWPHQWVVKRXOGIRFXVRQPDLQWDLQLQJWKHH[LVWLQJV\VWHPDQGQHZRSSRUWXQLWLHV WR LQWURGXFH µVPDUW¶ WHFKQRORJLHV IRU FXVWRPHU VHUYLFH DQG V\VWHP FRQWURO VKRXOG EH SXUVXHG

7KH ILQGLQJV IURP &,53 DQG WKH VWUDWHJLF JXLGHOLQHV DUH XVHIXO IRU ORQJHU WHUP VWUDWHJ\

PDNLQJ IRU 2QWDULR +\GUR 7KH H[LVWLQJ V\VWHP LV XVHG WR WKH PD[LPXP H[WHQW SRVVLEOHWRUHGXFH +\GUR¶VIL[HGFRVWVDQGSURYLGHLQFUHDVHGILQDQFLDOIOH[LELOLW\7KHLQFUHDVHGILQDQFLDOIOH[LELOLW\LV QHHGHGWRZHDWKHUDKLJKO\XQFHUWDLQSHULRGRIHOHFWULFLQGXVWU\UHVWUXFWXULQJ:KHQQHHGHGQDWXUDO JDVILUHGWHFKQRORJLHVSUHIHUDEO\KLJKHIILFLHQF\FDQEHUHOLHGRQDQGORFDWHGWRUHGXFHDQFLOODU\

LQYHVWPHQWVLQWUDQVPLVVLRQ6XFKLQYHVWPHQWVUHGXFHULVNVRIVWUDQGLQJLQYHVWPHQWUHODWLYHWRPRVW DOWHUQDWLYHV DQG HYHQ PRUH VR LI RZQHG E\ RWKHUV ,QYHVWPHQWV LQ WKH JULG WKDW XVH µVPDUW¶

WHFKQRORJLHV ZRXOG EH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK RSHUDWLQJ D PRUH GLVWULEXWHG JHQHUDWLRQV\VWHP $GRSWLQJ D GLVWULEXWHG DSSURDFK ZLWK H[LVWLQJ JDVILUHG WHFKQRORJLHV DV D VWDUW HJ0: WR 0: LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU DQ HYHQ PRUH KLJKO\ GLVWULEXWHG V\VWHP LQ WKH IXWXUHDV QRWHG HDUOLHUSURYLGLQJWKHSODWIRUPIRUWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHV

,QDUHWDLODFFHVVIXWXUHFKRLFHVIRUHQHUJ\VHUYLFHVZRXOGEHPDGHE\FRQVXPHUVRUWKHLU HQHUJ\VHUYLFHSURYLGHU6HUYLFHSURYLGHUVZRXOGDJJUHJDWHFXVWRPHUV¶GHPDQGVIRUFDSDFLW\HQHUJ\

DQGUHODWHGVHUYLFHVZLWKVXSSOLHUVUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHPDUNHWSHUKDSVE\SULYDWHQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKWKH VHUYLFHSURYLGHURUE\SXEOLFUHTXHVWVIRUSURSRVDOV'HSHQGLQJRQWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKHPDUNHWDQG WKH DFWLRQV RI WKH VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV DQG VXSSOLHUV D VDWLVIDFWRU\ PL[ RI UHVRXUFH RSWLRQV HJHIILFLHQF\LPSURYHPHQWVUHQHZDEOHVQRQUHQHZDEOHVPD\RUPD\QRWFRPHDERXW,IWKHPL[

LV QRW VDWLVIDFWRU\ DUHJXODWRU PD\ VWLSXODWH REMHFWLYHV WR EH PHW $QLQWHJUDWHG UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ SURFHVVFRXOGEHXQGHUWDNHQDWWKHUHTXHVWRIRUHYHQE\WKHUHJXODWRUWRHVWDEOLVKWKHREMHFWLYHVDQG LGHQWLI\SRVVLEOHPHDQVIRUWKHLUDFKLHYHPHQW

,1752'8&7,21

7KLVUHSRUWGHVFULEHVWKH&RUSRUDWH,QWHJUDWHG5HVRXUFH3ODQQLQJ3URFHVV&,53LWVRXWSXWV DQGWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHSURFHVVE\WKHLQWHUQDO&,53WHDPDQGWKHH[WHUQDO5HYLHZ*URXS

,Q0D\WKH3UHVLGHQWDVNHG&RUSRUDWH6WUDWHJLF3ODQQLQJWROHDGDQH[SHULPHQWZLWKDQ LQWHJUDWHGUHVRXUFHSODQQLQJH[HUFLVHDVDPHDQVWRLQYHVWLJDWHLQYHVWPHQWGLUHFWLRQVDQGWRUHSRUWE\

-XQHVRWKDW&,53ZRXOGEHRQHLQSXWWRWKHIROORZLQJ\HDU¶VEXVLQHVVSODQQLQJSURFHVV2QWDULR +\GUR¶VFRUSRUDWHPLVVLRQZDVWKHVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUWKHH[HUFLVHDQGWKHLQYHVWPHQWVWREHFRQVLGHUHG ZHUHWKRVHFORVHO\UHODWHGWR+\GUR¶VPDLQSURGXFWHOHFWULFLW\,Q-XQHDQLQWHUQDO&,53WHDP

UHIHUHQFHLQ$XJXVWVHH$SSHQGL[%ZKLFKVHWVRXWWKHSURFHVVDQGVFKHGXOH)URP6HSWHPEHU WR-XQHWKHWHDPFDUULHGRXWWKHSURFHVV

7KH WHDP FRPSOHWHG LWV WDVN E\ SUHSDULQJ PDWHULDOV DQG GUDIW VWUDWHJLF JXLGHOLQHV IRU D

&RQVROLGDWHG0DQDJHPHQW &RPPLWWHH &0& PHHWLQJ WKDW ZDV KHOG-XQH7KH SXUSRVH RI WKH&0&PHHWLQJZDVWRSURYLGHWKH3UHVLGHQWZLWKDGYLFHDQGIHHGEDFNRQ&,53ILQGLQJVDQGWKH GUDIWVWUDWHJLFJXLGHOLQHVSULRUWRWKHLUILQDOL]DWLRQDVDQLQSXWWRWKHEXVLQHVVSODQQLQJSURFHVV

)ROORZLQJ WKH -XQH &0& PHHWLQJ &RUSRUDWH 6WUDWHJLF 3ODQQLQJ UHYLVHG WKH JXLGHOLQHVZKLFKZHUHWKHQSUHVHQWHGWRDQGDFFHSWHGE\WKH6WUDWHJLF0DQDJHPHQW&RPPLWWHHRQ -XQH 7KH &,53 VWUDWHJLF JXLGHOLQHV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH 3UHVLGHQW¶V -XO\

PHPRUDQGXPWREXVLQHVVOHDGHUVWKDWVHWRXWWKHEXVLQHVVSODQQLQJVWUDWHJLFDQGSURFHVV JXLGHOLQHV

0HPEHUVRIWKH&,53WHDPDUHOLVWHGLQ$SSHQGL[&7KHWHDPLQFOXGHGSHRSOHIURPPRVWRI WKHEXVLQHVVXQLWVDQGWKHWZRXQLRQV7KHWHDPRSHUDWHGE\FRQVHQVXV

&,53352&(66

)LJXUHLOOXVWUDWHVWKHRYHUDOOSURFHVVWKDW&,53IROORZHG(DFKRIWKHFRPSRQHQWVVKRZQLQ WKHILJXUHLVGHVFULEHGEHORZ

0,66,21$1'$668037,216

$ QXPEHU RI SODQQLQJ DVVXPSWLRQV ZHUH VHW RXW HDUO\ LQ WKH SURFHVV WR FOHDUO\ VWDWH DERXQGDULHVRUFRQGLWLRQVWKDWZHUHWDNHQDVJLYHQHJ+\GUR¶VPLVVLRQVWDWHPHQWEERXQGDULHV RUFRQGLWLRQVSODFHGRQ+\GURHJDFLGJDVHPLVVLRQOLPLWVDQGFFRQGLWLRQVWKDW+\GURFKRRVHVWR DGRSWLQWKLVSURFHVVHJUDWHLQFUHDVHVDWRUEHORZLQIODWLRQ7KH&,53DVVXPSWLRQVDUHOLVWHGLQ

$SSHQGL['7KHDVVXPSWLRQVGRQRWUHSUHVHQWHQYLURQPHQWDOLQGLFDWRUVRUDVVHVVPHQWDQGHYDOXDWLRQ FULWHULD6XFKFULWHULDZHUHGHYHORSHGVHSDUDWHO\DWDSSURSULDWHSRLQWVLQWKHSURFHVV)RUH[DPSOHWKH DVVXPSWLRQV DERXW DLU HPLVVLRQV VLPSO\ GHILQH FXUUHQW UHJXODWRU\ OLPLWV DQG +\GUR VWDQGDUGV 2SHUDWLQJSUDFWLVHVPD\UHVXOWLQHPLVVLRQOHYHOVVLJQLILFDQWO\EHORZOLPLWV

7KH ILUVW DVVXPSWLRQ ZKLFK ZDV DOVR D JXLGLQJ IRUFH WKURXJKRXW WKH SURFHVV LV 2QWDULR +\GUR¶VFRUSRUDWHPLVVLRQ

7RPDNH2QWDULR+\GURDOHDGHULQHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\DQGVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWDQGWR SURYLGHLWVFXVWRPHUVZLWKVDIHDQGUHOLDEOHHQHUJ\VHUYLFHVDWFRPSHWLWLYHSULFHV

2%-(&7,9(6

(DUO\LQWKHGHVLJQRIWKH&,53SURFHVVDJRDOVDQGREMHFWLYHVDSSURDFKZDVHVWDEOLVKHG$V VXFKWKHPLVVLRQZDVWDNHQDVDVWDWHPHQWRIWKHFRUSRUDWHJRDODQG&,53ZRXOGEHGLUHFWHGWRZDUGV DFKLHYLQJWKDWJRDO)XUWKHUHODERUDWLRQRIWKHPLVVLRQOHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDVHWRIREMHFWLYHV 2EMHFWLYHVDUHZLGHO\UHFRJQL]HGDVHVVHQWLDOIRULQIRUPHGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ

2EMHFWLYHV LQ DQ\ GHFLVLRQ RU SODQQLQJ FRQWH[W VKRXOG UHIOHFW WKH XQGHUO\LQJ YDOXHV RI WKH LQGLYLGXDOVPDNLQJWKHGHFLVLRQDVZHOODVWKHYDOXHVRIVWDNHKROGHUV%\GHULYLQJREMHFWLYHVIURPWKH PLVVLRQ&,53ZDVH[SOLFLWO\GHVLJQHGWRUHIOHFWWKHYDOXHVRIWKHFRUSRUDWLRQ

7KH &,53 REMHFWLYHV FRQWULEXWHG WR PDQ\ SODQQLQJ DFWLYLWLHV WKH\ JXLGHG WKH SODQQLQJ SURFHVVWKH\LQGLFDWHGWKHIDFWRUVWKDWZHUHLPSRUWDQWLQGHVLJQLQJSRUWIROLRVDQGWKH\SURYLGHGWKH EDVLV IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH RSWLRQV DQG WKH SRUWIROLRV IRU WKH FRPSDUDWLYH HYDOXDWLRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYHSRUWIROLRVDQGIRUPDNLQJWUDGHRIIV

%DVHGRQIHHGEDFNIURP&RQVROLGDWHG0DQDJHPHQW&RPPLWWHHDQGODWHUIHHGEDFNIURPWKH H[WHUQDO5HYLHZ*URXSIRXUREMHFWLYHVWKDW&,53LQYHVWPHQWGLUHFWLRQZRXOGDLPWRDFKLHYHZHUH GHYHORSHG7KH&,53REMHFWLYHVDUH

œ SURYLGHFRPSHWLWLYHO\SULFHGHQHUJ\VHUYLFHVYDOXHGE\FXVWRPHUV

œ LPSURYHHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHDQGPDNHPRUHHIILFLHQWXVHRIUHVRXUFHV

œ HQKDQFHVRFLDODQGHFRQRPLFEHQHILWVLQ2QWDULRDQG

œ HQKDQFHWKHILQDQFLDORSHUDWLRQDODQGKXPDQUHVRXUFHYLDELOLW\RI2QWDULR+\GUR

&,53(;7(51$/5(9,(:*5283

$Q H[WHUQDO 5HYLHZ *URXS SURYLGHG IHHGEDFN DW NH\ VWDJHV WKURXJKRXW WKH SURFHVV $ QXPEHU RI SHRSOH ZKR FRXOG UHSUHVHQW GLIIHUHQW SHUVSHFWLYHV ZHUH LQYLWHG WR SDUWLFLSDWHVHH

$SSHQGL[&7KH\ZHUHDQDGYLVRU\JURXSDQGWKHLUSDUWLFLSDWLRQZDVYROXQWDU\1RUPVHVWDEOLVKHG E\WKH5HYLHZ*URXSSDUWLFLSDQWVGLGQRWUHTXLUHFRQVHQVXVDPRQJWKHPVHOYHVLHWKH\ZHUHIUHHWR KDYHGLIIHULQJYLHZV7KH5HYLHZ*URXSPHWWHQWLPHV)LJXUHVXPPDUL]HVWKHPHHWLQJGDWHVDQG PDLQWRSLFV7\SLFDOO\WKHPHHWLQJVZHUHDERXWIRXUKRXUVLQOHQJWK$WWKH0D\PHHWLQJRI WKH 5HYLHZ *URXS VXEVWDQWLYH IHHGEDFN ZDV UHFHLYHG WKURXJK DQ HLJKW KRXU PHHWLQJ IRFXVLQJ RQ SDUWLFXODUSODQQLQJLVVXHVDQGWKHGUDIWVWUDWHJLFJXLGHOLQHV

237,216

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

$GGLWLRQDO DQG QRQWUDGLWLRQDO GHPDQGVXSSO\ RSWLRQV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG GXULQJ WKH SRUWIROLR GHYHORSPHQWVWDJHRSWLRQVVXFKDVDVPDUWHQHUJ\QHWZRUNILUPSRZHUVDOHVDQGSULFLQJRSWLRQVIRU HQYLURQPHQWDOO\SUHIHUUHGJHQHUDWLRQ7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVHDGGLWLRQDORSWLRQVZHUHJHQHUDOO\

QRW GHILQHGLQ GHWDLO 1HYHUWKHOHVVLPSDFWV RIWKHRSWLRQV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHGLQWKH DVVHVVPHQWV DQG HYDOXDWLRQVWRWKHH[WHQWSUDFWLFDODWWKHWLPH

([WHUQDOFRVWVHVWLPDWHVLHPRQHWL]HGYDOXHVZHUHSURYLGHGIRUVHOHFWHGIRVVLODQGQXFOHDU RSWLRQV DQG H[SUHVVHG LQ D OHYHOL]HG XQLW HQHUJ\ FRVW IRUPDW 7KH YDOXHV ZHUH EDVHG RQ H[LVWLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ +\GUR KDG DV D UHVXOW RI WKH ZRUN RI DQ HDUOLHU WDVN IRUFH RQ VXVWDLQDEOH HQHUJ\

GHYHORSPHQW 3257)2/,26

6HYHQ SRUWIROLRV ZKLFK UHSUHVHQW GLIIHUHQW LQYHVWPHQW GLUHFWLRQV ZHUH GHYHORSHG DQG VSDQQHGD\HDUSHULRGEHJLQQLQJLQ7KHSXUSRVHVRIWKHSRUWIROLRVZHUHWRUHSUHVHQWVSHFLILF ZD\VWKDWRQHRUPRUH&,53REMHFWLYHVFRXOGEHDFKLHYHGDQGWRSURYLGHDEDVLVIRUDVVHVVLQJDQG HYDOXDWLQJWKHLPSDFWVRILQYHVWPHQWGLUHFWLRQV7KHLQWHQWLRQZDVQRWWRFKRRVHRQHSRUWIROLRRYHU DQRWKHUEXWUDWKHUWRXQGHUVWDQGZKDWFRPSRQHQWVRIDQ\SRUWIROLRSHUIRUPHGZHOORUSRRUO\

3RUWIROLRDLPHGWRSURYLGHFXVWRPHUVZLWKPRUHFKRLFHVDWFRPSHWLWLYHSULFHV,WVDZWKH LQWURGXFWLRQRID6PDUW(QHUJ\1HWZRUNDVDZD\WRVWDUW&RVWVZRXOGEHXQEXQGOHGIRUGHYHORSLQJ UDWH RSWLRQV ZKLFK KDG WKH QHW LPSDFW RI LQFUHDVLQJ GHPDQG 'HPDQG UHGXFLQJ HIILFLHQF\

LPSURYHPHQWV ZRXOG EH GHOD\HG XQWLO D IHZ \HDUV EHIRUH V\VWHP QHHGV DULVH 2SWLRQV ZHUH WR EH VHOHFWHGIRUORZUDWHLPSDFWVLQDQDWWHPSWWRPLQLPL]HUHYHQXHUHTXLUHPHQWV

3RUWIROLRXVHGDWUDGLWLRQDOORZORQJWHUPFRVWDSSURDFKZKLFKLQFOXGHGIXOOUHLQYHVWPHQWLQ WKH H[LVWLQJ V\VWHP RYHU WLPH FXVWRPHU HQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ LPSURYHPHQWV WR UHGXFH GHPDQG DQG WR PHHWQHZGHPDQGVFRPEXVWLRQWXUELQHXQLWV&78VIRUSHDNORDGVDQG&$1'8¶VIRUEDVHORDGV

3RUWIROLR UHOLHG RQ UHQHZDEOHV DQG HIILFLHQF\ LPSURYHPHQWV WR WKH JUHDWHVW H[WHQW RI DOO SRUWIROLRV (QHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ LPSURYHPHQWV ZHUH SXUVXHG PRUH VR WKDQ LQ 3RUWIROLR 6RPH FRQYHUVLRQ IURP FRDO WR JDV WRRN SODFH WR UHGXFH DLU HPLVVLRQV LQ VRXWKHUQ 2QWDULR :KHQ PDMRU UHLQYHVWPHQW LQ H[LVWLQJ IRVVLO DQG QXFOHDU IDFLOLWLHV ZHUH QHHGHG WKH IDFLOLWLHV ZHUH UHWLUHG DQG

UHSODFHG 6HOHFWHG K\GURHOHFWULF UHGHYHORSPHQWV ZHUH DOVR SXUVXHG +LJK HIILFLHQF\ QDWXUDO JDV RSWLRQVZHUHXVHGVXFKDVGLVWULFWKHDWLQJDQGIXHOFHOOVDQGDVLJQLILFDQWTXDQWLW\RIELRPDVVZDV WKHUHQHZDEOHRSWLRQIRUILOOLQJUHPDLQLQJJHQHUDWLRQQHHGV

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

3RUWIROLRIRFXVHGRQRSWLRQVWKDWSURYLGHHPSOR\PHQWDQGHFRQRPLFEHQHILWVLQ2QWDULR 7KHUH ZDV D KLJK UHOLDQFH RQ FXVWRPHU HQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ DV LQ 3RUWIROLR DQG QXFOHDU DQG K\GURHOHFWULF RSWLRQV LQFOXGLQJ WKH OHVV HFRQRPLF K\GURHOHFWULF UHGHYHORSPHQWV DQG QHZ K\GURHOHFWULFGHYHORSPHQWV

3RUWIROLRDWWHPSWHGWRDFKLHYHDQLPSURYHGEDODQFHVKHHWLQDVKRUWSHULRGRIWLPHWKURXJK FDSLWDO UHGXFWLRQV $ UHGXFWLRQ LQ FDSLWDO H[SHQGLWXUHV ZDV DVVXPHG ZKLFK UHVXOWHG LQ QHDU LPPHGLDWHFORVXUHRIWZRQXFOHDUVWDWLRQV%UXFH$DQG3LFNHULQJ$7KHSRUWIROLRWKHQKDGWRGUDZ RQKLJKHUFRVWRSWLRQVWRPDNHXSHQHUJ\VKRUWIDOOVWKDWUHVXOWHGLQSRRUSHUIRUPDQFHRQPDQ\FULWHULD DQGQRXVHIXOLQVLJKWVRQEDODQFHVKHHWLPSURYHPHQWV

3RUWIROLRDVVXPHGDQXPEHURILQLWLDWLYHVWRLQFUHDVHUHYHQXHVIRUHPRVWZHUHD0:

VDOHDQGWKHHOLPLQDWLRQRIUHYHQXHUHGXFLQJHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\SURJUDPV

$66(660(17&5,7(5,$

7KHGHWDLOHGVSHFLILFDWLRQRIWKHREMHFWLYHVRIIHUVWKHPDMRUDGYDQWDJHRISURYLGLQJDJUHHG XSRQ DQG VWDWHG FULWHULD WKDW DUH FDSDEOH RI ZHLJKWLQJ IRU XVH LQ WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH YDULRXV FRPSRQHQWVRI&,53&OHDUO\DQGSURSHUO\VSHFLILHGREMHFWLYHVJXLGHWKHHYDOXDWLRQE\VWDWLQJWKH W\SHVRIGDWDZKLFKZRXOGEHDFFHSWHGDVHYLGHQFHRIWKHVXFFHVVRIWKHRSWLRQVDQGSRUWIROLRVLQ PHHWLQJWKHREMHFWLYHVDQGE\LQGLFDWLQJWKHPHWKRGVRIPHDVXUHPHQWWREHXVHGLQGDWDFROOHFWLRQ

7KH&,53REMHFWLYHVZHUHIXUWKHUVSHFLILHGE\VXEREMHFWLYHVIURPZKLFKDVVHVVPHQWFULWHULD ZHUHLGHQWLILHG$QH[DPSOHRIDVXEREMHFWLYHLVµHQKDQFHWKHILQDQFLDOIOH[LELOLW\RI2QWDULR+\GUR DQGHQVXUHLQYHVWPHQWVDUHDIIRUGDEOH¶DQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGFULWHULDDUHµQHWLQFRPH¶DQGµGHEWUDWLR¶

$QRWKHUH[DPSOHLVµHQKDQFHWKHYLDELOLW\RIORFDODQG$ERULJLQDOFRPPXQLWLHV¶DQGWKHDVVRFLDWHG FULWHULDDUHµFKDQJHVLQUHJLRQDODQGORFDOHPSOR\PHQW¶DQGµFRPPXQLW\EHQHILWV¶

(LJKWHHQ GLIIHUHQW FULWHULD ZHUH XVHG WR DVVHVV SRUWIROLR LPSDFWV 7KH VXEREMHFWLYHV DQG FULWHULDXVHGDUHOLVWHGEHORZ

&,5368%2%-(&7,9(6$1'&5,7(5,$

68%2%-(&7,9( &5,7(5,$

0LQLPL]HORQJWHUPFRVWV QHWSUHVHQWYDOXHFRVW139

0D[LPL]HFXVWRPHUYDOXHGVHUYLFH FXVWRPHU YDOXH UDWHV UHOLDELOLW\ SRZHU RSWLRQV FRQVXOWLQJVHUYLFHVHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\HQYLURQPHQW ,PSURYHHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFH JUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQV

XVHGQXFOHDUIXHO

ODQGXVH

QRQUHQHZDEOHUHVRXUFHFRQVXPSWLRQ

0LQLPL]HDGYHUVHFRPPXQLW\LPSDFWV H[SHFWHGFKDQJHLQORFDOSRSXODWLRQ

0LQLPL]HDGYHUVHFXOWXUDOLPSDFWV $ERULJLQDORUPLQRULW\JURXSVDIIHFWHG (QVXUHSXEOLFVDIHW\DQGKHDOWK ULVNWRSXEOLFKHDOWK

0DNHPRUHHIILFLHQWXVHRIUHVRXUFHV FXVWRPHUDQG2+((,

&RQWULEXWHWRWKHSURYLQFLDOHFRQRP\ *'3DQGLPSDFWRQ2QWDULRHPSOR\PHQW (QKDQFHWKHYLDELOLW\RIORFDO FKDQJHVLQORFDOUHJLRQDOHPSOR\PHQW DQG$ERULJLQDOFRPPXQLWLHV

(QKDQFHWKHILQDQFLDOIOH[LELOLW\ GHEWUDWLR RI2QWDULR+\GURDQGHQVXUH

LQYHVWPHQWVDUHDIIRUGDEOH

(QKDQFHWKHRSHUDWLRQDOIOH[LELOLW\ WHFKQRORJLFDOGLYHUVLW\

RI2QWDULR+\GUR UHVSRQVHWR12[SRVVLEOHUHJXODWLRQFRQVWUDLQWV

UHVSRQVHWR&2SRVVLEOHUHJXODWLRQFRQVWUDLQWV

(QVXUHZRUNHUVDIHW\DQGKHDOWK ULVNWRZRUNHUKHDOWK (QKDQFHWKHSODQQLQJIOH[LELOLW\ OHDGWLPH

RI2QWDULR+\GUR

$66(660(176$1'(9$/8$7,216

7KH VHYHQ SRUWIROLRV ZHUH DVVHVVHG DQG HYDOXDWHG XVLQJ IRXU GLVWLQFW DQDO\VHV DPHGLDQ FRQGLWLRQVEVFHQDULRVFVHQVLWLYLWLHVDQGGFXVWRPHUEDVHGSHUVSHFWLYHV

0(',$1&21',7,216

)RU WKH DQDO\VLV XQGHU PHGLDQ FRQGLWLRQV WKH &,53 WHDP XVHG 0XOWL&ULWHULD $VVHVVPHQW 0&$WRHYDOXDWHWKHSRUWIROLRVDQGPDNHWKHWUDGHRIIV,WZDVIHOWWKDW0&$KDVEHHQHIIHFWLYHO\

XVHGIRU,53VHOVHZKHUHDQGFRXOGKHOSWKH&,537HDPWR

œ FRPPXQLFDWHDERXWWUDGHRIIVDPRQJVXEREMHFWLYHV

œ KHOSPDNHPRUHFRQVLVWHQWDQGUDWLRQDOHYDOXDWLRQVRIWKHVHWUDGHRIIV

œ XQGHUVWDQGWKHYDOXHVDQGSHUVSHFWLYHVRIGLIIHUHQWLQWHUHVWVDQG

œ GRFXPHQWKRZGHFLVLRQVZHUHPDGH

$OO VHYHQ SRUWIROLRV ZHUH DVVHVVHG DJDLQVW DOO WKH FULWHULD DVVXPLQJ PHGLDQ FRQGLWLRQV LHPHGLDQ ORDG IRUHFDVW FRVW HVWLPDWHV GLVFRXQW UDWHV DQG FXUUHQW SURYLVLRQV RI WKH 3RZHU

&RUSRUDWLRQ$FW7RFDUU\WKLVRXWHDFKRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWUHVXOWVIRUHDFKFULWHULRQKDGWREHUHGXFHG WRDYDOXHRQDQXPHULFVFDOH7KHIROORZLQJVWHSVZHUHIROORZHG

7KHRXWFRPHVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWVZHUHH[SUHVVHGLQDYDULHW\RIXQLWVLHGROODUVLPSDFWRQ GHEWUDWLRHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHLQKHFWDUHVIRUODQGXVH7KHLQGLYLGXDORUWHDPDVVLJQHGWR DVVHVVHDFKSRUWIROLRDJDLQVWFULWHULDDOVRFRPPHQWHGRQWKHVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW UHVXOWV

7KHVHDVVHVVPHQWRXWFRPHVLQWKHLUYDULRXVXQLWVZHUHFRQYHUWHGLQWRDVVHVVPHQWVFRUHVWR DOORZWKHWHDPWRHYDOXDWHWKHSRUWIROLRVZLWKDFRPPRQVHWRIXQLWV7KHVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKH DVVHVVPHQW RXWFRPHV ZDV DOVR XVHG ZKHQ FRQYHUWLQJ PHDVXUHG XQLWV LQWR WKH DVVHVVPHQW

7KHVHDVVHVVPHQWRXWFRPHVLQWKHLUYDULRXVXQLWVZHUHFRQYHUWHGLQWRDVVHVVPHQWVFRUHVWR DOORZWKHWHDPWRHYDOXDWHWKHSRUWIROLRVZLWKDFRPPRQVHWRIXQLWV7KHVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKH DVVHVVPHQW RXWFRPHV ZDV DOVR XVHG ZKHQ FRQYHUWLQJ PHDVXUHG XQLWV LQWR WKH DVVHVVPHQW