7KHLPSDFWSDWKZD\DSSURDFK - ² $5HIHUHQFH%RRN (QKDQFHG(OHFWULFLW\6\VWHP$Q

3ROLF\OHJDODQGDGPLQLVWUDWLYHIUDPHZRUNZLWKLQZKLFKWKH(,$LVSUHSDUHG

3URMHFW GHVFULSWLRQ LQ D JHRJUDSKLFHFRORJLFDO VRFLDO DQGWHPSRUDO FRQWH[WLQFOXGLQJ DQ\ RIIVLWH LQYHVWPHQWV UHTXLUHG WR VXSSRUW WKH SURMHFW HJSLSHOLQHV WUDQVPLVVLRQ OLQHV

3UHSURMHFWGDWDRQWKHSK\VLFDOELRORJLFDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVLQWKHSURMHFW DUHDDVDEDVHOLQHIRUHYDOXDWLQJLPSDFWVFDXVHGE\WKHSURMHFW

6RFLDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHWKDWDUHHVWLPDWHGWRRFFXUDVD UHVXOW RI LPSOHPHQWLQJ WKH SURSRVHG SURMHFW SURSRVHG FRVWHIIHFWLYH PHDVXUHV WR PLWLJDWH SRWHQWLDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFWV WR DFFHSWDEOH OHYHOV DQG HVWLPDWHV RI UHVLGXDO LPSDFWVWKDWFDQQRWEHPLWLJDWHG

$QDO\VLVRIDOWHUQDWLYHVWRWKHSURSRVHGSURMHFWLQWHUPVRIFRPSDUDWLYHFRVWVEHQHILWV DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFWV SURYLGLQJ D MXVWLILFDWLRQ WKDW WKH SURSRVHG SURMHFW LV WKH PRVWVXLWDEOHIRULPSOHPHQWDWLRQ

(QYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ PDQDJHPHQW DQG WUDLQLQJ SURJUDPPHV DOUHDG\ LQ SODFH RU SODQQHG WR EH LPSOHPHQWHG LQFOXGLQJ SURJUDPPHV IRU HPHUJHQF\ UHVSRQVH LQ WKH XQOLNHO\HYHQWRIDPDMRUDFFLGHQWWKDWZRXOGKDYHRIIVLWHFRQVHTXHQFHV

3ODQVIRUPRQLWRULQJFRPSOLDQFHZLWKKHDOWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQVWDQGDUGVDQG UHJXODWLRQVLQFOXGLQJZKDWZLOOEHPRQLWRUHGE\ZKRPDQGDWZKDWFRVW

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

7KHLPSDFWSDWKZD\DSSURDFK

7KHHIIHFWVRIDJLYHQDFWLYLW\FDQEHGHILQHGWKURXJKWKHFKDLQRIUHODWLRQVKLSVFDOOHGWKH µLPSDFW SDWKZD\¶ )LJXUH OLQNLQJ WKH RULJLQ RI DQHQYLURQPHQWDO EXUGHQ WR WKHLPSDFWV $ FRPSUHKHQVLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHLPSDFWVIURPDQHQHUJ\V\VWHPUHTXLUHVWKHDQDO\VLVRIDPXOWLWXGH RIGLIIHUHQWLPSDFWSDWKZD\VDQGPXVWDGGUHVVVRFLDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHVDWWKHORFDOUHJLRQDO DQG JOREDO OHYHOV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR LPPHGLDWH LPSDFWV GHOD\HG DQG FXPXODWLYH HIIHFWV PD\ EH LPSRUWDQW &RYHUDJH RIWKH IXOOHQHUJ\ FKDLQUHTXLUHV FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RIIXHO H[WUDFWLRQ SUHSDUDWLRQ HOHFWULFLW\ WUDQVPLVVLRQ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ ZDVWH SURFHVVLQJ DQG GLVSRVDO DV ZHOO DV WKH HOHFWULFLW\

JHQHUDWLRQSURFHVV

(QYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQVRIDIDFLOLW\LQFOXGHWKHSK\VLFDODQGYLVXDOLQWUXVLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHV DV ZHOO DV HIIHFWV DULVLQJ IURP RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH IDFLOLW\ 7KH ODWWHU LQFOXGH URXWLQH RU DFFLGHQWDO GLVFKDUJHVWRDLURUZDWHUDQGZDVWHGLVSRVDO7KHEXUGHQVSURGXFHGE\DOWHUQDWLYHJHQHUDWLQJ

),*,PSDFWSDWKZD\IRUHYDOXDWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWV

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

BURDEN

IMPACT

DAMAGE

COSTS

Example: Unit of measure:

Sulphur dioxide emission

Acidification of lakes

Loss of fish stocks

Economic loss to fisheries

kg SO₂ per kWh(e)

Ph change

Fish population change

Monetary loss

,PSDFWVRIGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\VRXUFHV *UHHQKRXVHJDVHVDQGJOREDOZDUPLQJ

7KHHDUWK¶VDWPRVSKHUHFRQWDLQVDUDQJHRIQDWXUDOJUHHQKRXVHJDVHV*+*VSUHGRPLQDQWO\

FDUERQ GLR[LGH &2 QLWURXV R[LGH 12 PHWKDQH &+ DQG ZDWHU YDSRXU 7KHVH JDVHV DOORZ UDGLDQWHQHUJ\IURPWKHVXQWRSDVVWKURXJKWRWKH(DUWK¶VVXUIDFHEXWWKH\DEVRUEORQJHUZDYHOHQJWK KHDWUDGLDWHGWRZDUGVVSDFHIURPWKH(DUWK¶VVXUIDFH,IWKH*+*VZHUHQRWSUHVHQWLQWKHDWPRVSKHUH WKHDYHUDJHWHPSHUDWXUHRQ(DUWKZRXOGEHVRPH&ORZHUWKDQLWLVWRGD\>@(PLVVLRQVIURPD ODUJH YDULHW\ RI KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH FRPEXVWLRQ RI IRVVLO IXHOV LQFUHDVH WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKHQDWXUDO*+*VLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHOHDGLQJWRWKHVRFDOOHGµKXPDQJUHHQKRXVH HIIHFW¶7KHPDLQFRQWULEXWRUWRWKHKXPDQJUHHQKRXVHHIIHFWLV&2RZLQJWRLWVODUJHVKDUHLQWRWDO HPLVVLRQVIURPKXPDQDFWLYLWLHVDQGWRLWVORQJDWPRVSKHULFOLIHWLPHLWWDNHVDERXW\HDUVIRU&2 UHOHDVHG LQWR WKH DWPRVSKHUH WR EH UHPRYHG E\ QDWXUDO SURFHVVHV 0HWKDQH LV PRUH HIIHFWLYH SHU TXDQWLW\UHOHDVHGWRWKHDWPRVSKHUHWKDQ&2LQFDXVLQJJOREDOZDUPLQJEXWLWLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHRI ORZHURYHUDOOVLJQLILFDQFHEHFDXVHRIWKHPXFKORZHUTXDQWLWLHVUHOHDVHG

7KHPDMRUKXPDQDFWLYLW\WKDWUHOHDVHV&2LQWRWKHDWPRVSKHUHLVWKHFRPEXVWLRQRIIRVVLO IXHOV7KHDYHUDJHDWPRVSKHULFFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI&2UHPDLQHGOLWWOHFKDQJHGRYHUDSHULRGRIPRUH WKDQ\HDUVVLQFHWKHODVWLFHDJHXQWLOWKHRQVHWRILQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQLQWKHODWHWKFHQWXU\

6LQFHWKDWWLPH&2FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHKDVULVHQIURPSDUWVSHUPLOOLRQSSPLQ WKHPLGVWRRYHUSSPLQDQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLVFRQWLQXLQJWRLQFUHDVHE\DERXW SHUFHQWSHUDQQXP>@

)URP FRPSDULVRQV RIWKHREVHUYHG KLVWRULFDO FKDQJHV LQ WKH JOREDO PHDQ WHPSHUDWXUH ZLWK HVWLPDWHVPDGHE\VLPXODWLRQVFDUULHGRXWZLWKVRSKLVWLFDWHGFRPSXWHUPRGHOVWKH,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH,3&&KDVVWDWHGWKDWWKHREVHUYHGWHPSHUDWXUHULVHRYHUWKHODVWFHQWXU\

^R& ^R& LV XQOLNHO\ WR EH HQWLUHO\ GXH WR QDWXUDO FDXVHV D KXPDQ JUHHQKRXVH HIIHFW LV LGHQWLILDEOHLQWKHFOLPDWHUHFRUG>@DQGWKLVHIIHFWZLOOJURZZLWKH[SDQGLQJSRSXODWLRQDQGKLJKHU VWDQGDUGVRIOLYLQJ%DVHGRQWKHLUHPLVVLRQVFHQDULRVWKH,3&&SURMHFWVDQLQFUHDVHLQJOREDO PHDQWHPSHUDWXUHRI^R&^R&E\

7KHUHVXOWDQWWHPSHUDWXUHFKDQJHVDUHOLNHO\WRLQGXFHDOWHUDWLRQVLQFOLPDWH]RQHVDQGFDXVH WKHVHDOHYHOWRULVH7KHVHFKDQJHVOHDGWRGLUHFWVRFLDOKHDOWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOULVNVVXFKDVWKH VSUHDG RI WURSLFDO GLVHDVHV LQWR WHPSRUDO ]RQHV DQG IORRGLQJ RI ORZ O\LQJ FRDVWDO DUHDV 7KH\ DUH IRUHFDVW DOVR WR FKDQJH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ SDWWHUQV DQG VRLO PRLVWXUH +HQFH DJULFXOWXUH DQG HFRV\VWHPV>@FRXOGEHDIIHFWHG&OLPDWH]RQHVFRXOGVKLIWGUDPDWLFDOO\RYHUWKHQH[W\HDUV>@

&KDQJHV LQ FOLPDWH H[WUHPHV FRXOG EH PRUH VLJQLILFDQW WKDQ FKDQJHV LQ DYHUDJH WHPSHUDWXUH DQG UDLQIDOO>@IRUH[DPSOHFRDVWDOIORRGVGXHWRLQFUHDVLQJO\IUHTXHQWVWRUPVXUJHVFRXOGKDYHPRUH LPSDFWWKDQDJUDGXDOULVHLQVHDOHYHO

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

SHUGHFDGH>@

$OORIWKHVHFOLPDWHFKDQJHVWXG\UHVXOWVDUHXQFHUWDLQDVWRWLPLQJPDJQLWXGHDQGUHJLRQDO SDWWHUQV RI WHPSHUDWXUH FKDQJH DQG UHJDUGLQJ WKH SUREDEOH HIIHFWV WKDW ZRXOG EH FDXVHG E\ JOREDO ZDUPLQJ+RZHYHULIWKHDYHUDJHJOREDOWHPSHUDWXUHZRXOGULVH&DERYHWKHSUHVHQWOHYHOZKLFK DOUHDG\LV&DERYHSUHLQGXVWULDOOHYHOVWKHWHPSHUDWXUHZRXOGH[FHHGWKHKLJKHVWDYHUDJH WHPSHUDWXUHVWKDWWKH(DUWKKDVH[SHULHQFHGGXULQJWKHHQWLUHWLPHWKDWKXPDQVKDYHH[LVWHG>@

7KH IRUHJRLQJ GLVFXVVLRQ PDNHV WKH LPSOLFLW DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW FOLPDWH FKDQJH ZLOO EH SURJUHVVLYH ZLWK WKH FKDQJHV ERWK DEVROXWH DQG DV UDWHV EHLQJ UHODWHG VLPSO\ WR WKH FXPXODWLYH FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI*+*VLQWKHDWPRVSKHUH+RZHYHUPDQ\VFLHQWLVWV>@KDYHZDUQHGWKDWWKHUH FRXOGEHVKDUSGLVFRQWLQXLWLHVLQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ*+*FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHDQG

FOLPDWH HIIHFWV )RU H[DPSOH RZLQJ WR WKH IDFW WKDW JOREDO ZDUPLQJ LQIOXHQFHV FRPSOH[

PHWHRURORJLFDOV\VWHPVLQYROYLQJRFHDQFXUUHQWVDQGSRODULFHFDSVDFULWLFDOSRLQWFRXOGEHUHDFKHG DWZKLFKDEUXSWFOLPDWHFKDQJHZRXOGRFFXU6XFKµQRQOLQHDU¶EHKDYLRXUSUHVHQWVWKHSRVVLELOLW\RI FDWDVWURSKLFDQGLUUHYHUVLEOHFKDQJHVWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIZKLFKZRXOGEHLPPHQVHDOWKRXJKWKHLU SUREDELOLW\RIRFFXUUHQFHLVDOPRVWLPSRVVLEOHWRDVVHVV

$FLGGHSRVLWLRQDQGFKHPLFDOR[LGDQWV

$FLG GHSRVLWLRQ DQG FKHPLFDO R[LGDQWV DUH WUHDWHG WRJHWKHU RZLQJ WR WKH IDFW WKDW WKH\

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

7KHELRORJLFDOLPSDFWVRIDFLGGHSRVLWLRQGHSHQGRQWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDWHDFKVLWH(IIHFWV DUH ORQJ ODVWLQJ DQG QRW LQ VLPSOH SURSRUWLRQ WR WKH DPRXQW GHSRVLWHG 7KLV KDV OHG WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH FRQFHSW RI µFULWLFDO ORDG¶ DV DQ LQGLFDWRU RI WKH SRWHQWLDO KDUPIXO HIIHFWV IURP SROOXWDQWJDVHV$FULWLFDOORDGLVGHILQHGDVWKHPD[LPXPTXDQWLW\RIDVXEVWDQFHIDOOLQJRQDJLYHQ DUHDRYHUDJLYHQSHULRGRIWLPHZKLFKDVSHFLILHGSDUWRIWKHORFDOHQYLURQPHQWFDQWROHUDWHZLWKRXW DGYHUVH HIIHFWV RFFXUULQJ>@ 7KHUH DUH FRQWLQXLQJ VFLHQWLILF XQFHUWDLQWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FULWLFDO ORDGV ZKLFK PD\ EH FDXVLQJ IXWXUH DFLG UDLQ GDPDJH WR EH XQGHUHVWLPDWHG EHFDXVH RI WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFKFULWLFDOORDGVDUHDYHUDJHGRYHUODUJHDUHDV

7KH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV (FRQRPLF &RPPLVVLRQ IRU (XURSH 81(&( DGRSWHG WKH FULWLFDO ORDG FRQFHSW IRU WKH UHFHQW UHYLVLRQ RI WKHLU SURWRFRO IRU WKH FRQWURO RI HPLVVLRQV RI VXOSKXU>@ 7KLV SURWRFROFRPPLWVWKHVLJQDWRU\QDWLRQVWRUDWKHUVWULQJHQWWDUJHWVIRUWKHUHGXFWLRQRIWRWDOVXOSKXU HPLVVLRQVEXWHYHQXQGHUWKHVHUHGXFWLRQVDQXPEHURIYXOQHUDEOHDUHDVVWLOOZLOOEHVXEMHFWWRDFLG GHSRVLWLRQUDWHVJUHDWHUWKDQWKHLUFULWLFDOORDGLPSO\LQJWKDWVRPHOHYHORIGDPDJHLVEHLQJDFFHSWHG XQGHUWKHSURWRFRO

6XQOLJKWFDQSURPRWHUHDFWLRQVEHWZHHQDODUJHYDULHW\RIFKHPLFDOVLQWKHDWPRVSKHUH)RU H[DPSOH WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW SROOXWDQWV LQYROYHG LQ WKH VXQOLJKW SURPRWHG SURGXFWLRQ RI µSKRWRFKHPLFDO VPRJ¶ DUH 12[ YRODWLOH RUJDQLF FRPSRXQGV 92&V DQG FDUERQ PRQR[LGH &2 7KHVH UHDFWLRQV FDQ JHQHUDWH D UDQJH RI WR[LF SURGXFWV SULQFLSDOO\ R]RQH 2]RQH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV IUHTXHQWO\DUHVWURQJO\GHSHQGHQWRQHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRU

7KHLPSDFWVKDYHEHHQVWXGLHGH[WHQVLYHO\LQUHFHQW\HDUVDQGWKHPDLQGLUHFWLPSDFWVKDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG DV HIIHFWV RQ KXPDQ KHDOWK GDPDJH WR PDWHULDOV UHGXFWLRQV LQ DJULFXOWXUDO DQG IRUHVWU\\LHOGVDQGGDPDJHWRWHUUHVWULDOHFRV\VWHPV7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISKRWRFKHPLFDOR[LGDQWVLV QRW LQ OLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS GLUHFWO\ ZLWK WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO SROOXWDQWV 7KH PDUJLQDO SK\VLFDOLPSDFWVDQGH[WHUQDOFRVWVZLOOGHSHQGWKHUHIRUHRQWKHEDFNJURXQGOHYHORISROOXWLRQ 3DUWLFXODWHHPLVVLRQV

6RPHFRPSRQHQWVRISRZHUVWDWLRQHPLVVLRQVFDQEHGDQJHURXVWRKXPDQKHDOWKDWYHU\ORZ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 7KHUH DUH QXPHURXV VXVSHFWHG KD]DUGRXV SROOXWDQWV DQG NQRZOHGJH DERXW WKHLU VRXUFHVHIIHFWVDQGGRVHUHVSRQVHUHODWLRQVKLSVLVVWLOOGHYHORSLQJ>@

3RO\F\FOLFDURPDWLFK\GURFDUERQV3$+DQGEHQ]HQHDUHERWKFDUFLQRJHQLFDQGDUHHPLWWHG IURP IXHO H[WUDFWLRQ DQG SURFHVVLQJ DQG IURP WKH SRZHU SODQW WKURXJK LQFRPSOHWH FRPEXVWLRQ RI

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

$LU SROOXWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ IURP VXOSKDWH DQG VPDOO SDUWLFOH HPLVVLRQV IURP FRDO ILUHG SRZHU SODQWV FDQ OHDG WR UHGXFWLRQ LQ OXQJ IXQFWLRQ DQG WKLV UHGXFWLRQ FDQ UHDFK FULWLFDO OHYHOV LQ ROGHU SHRSOH DQG WKRVH ZKR DOUHDG\ DUH VXIIHULQJ IURP VRPH W\SH RI SXOPRQDU\ SUREOHPV $V D FRQVHTXHQFH VXOSKDWH DQG VPDOO SDUWLFOH SROOXWLRQ FDQ OHDG WR WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI IDWDO SXOPRQDU\

DLOPHQWVDWDQDJHHDUOLHUWKDQZRXOGKDSSHQLQWKHDEVHQFHRIVXFKSROOXWLRQ$UHYLHZRIDQXPEHU RIHSLGHPLRORJLFDOVWXGLHV>@FRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHQXPEHURISHRSOHZKRGLHHDUO\LHKDYHWKHLU OLYHVVKRUWHQHGLVHTXLYDOHQWWRVRPHGHDWKVSHU*:H\HDURIHOHFWULFLW\SURGXFHGE\FRDOILUHG SRZHU SODQWV 7KH DXWKRU RI WKH FLWHG UHIHUHQFHV FRQFOXGHV WKDW WKLV KHDOWK HIIHFW GZDUIV DOO RWKHU KHDOWKSUREOHPVIURPIXHOXVH

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

5HOHDVHVRIUDGLRDFWLYLW\WRWKHHQYLURQPHQW

7KHQXFOHDUHQHUJ\FKDLQIRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQLQYROYHVWKHUHOHDVHRIVPDOODPRXQWVRI UDGLRDFWLYLW\LQDYDULHW\RIIRUPVWRERWKDLUDQGZDWHU7KHSULPDU\LPSDFWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHVH UHOHDVHV LV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH WKH SRWHQWLDO KHDOWK GHWULPHQW DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK H[SRVXUH RI WKH KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQWRWKHUHOHDVHGUDGLRDFWLYLW\

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

$OWKRXJKWKHOLPLWDWLRQRQPD[LPXPLQGLYLGXDOGRVHLVFHQWUDOWRWKHUHJXODWLRQRIHPLVVLRQV LQGLYLGXDOGRVHVDWWKHOHYHOVLQGLFDWHGDERYHDUHRIOLWWOHVLJQLILFDQFHLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIRYHUDOO GHWULPHQW $OO EXW D IHZ PHPEHUV RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ UHFHLYH GRVHV WKDW DUH RQH RU PRUH RUGHUV RI PDJQLWXGHORZHUWKDQWKHPD[LPXPLQGLYLGXDOGRVHOLPLW+RZHYHUWKHµOLQHDUK\SRWKHVLV¶DSSOLHGLQ UDGLDWLRQSURWHFWLRQDVVXPHVWKDWUDGLDWLRQGRVHVWRDQLQGLYLGXDODUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDVWRFKDVWLFULVN

RIVXEVHTXHQWO\LQFXUULQJDKHDOWKGHWULPHQWSULQFLSDOO\FDQFHURUJHQHWLFGDPDJHWKHPDJQLWXGHRI WKHVWRFKDVWLFULVNLVSURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHUDGLDWLRQGRVHDQGDOWKRXJKYHU\VPDOOLVQHYHU]HUR

7KH VXPPDWLRQ RI VPDOO LQGLYLGXDO GRVHV RYHU D ODUJH SRSXODWLRQ SURGXFHV WKH µFROOHFWLYH GRVH¶WRWKHZKROHSRSXODWLRQ)ROORZLQJWKHOLQHDUK\SRWKHVLVWKHULVNIDFWRUGHVFULEHGDERYHIRU LQGLYLGXDOVPD\EHDSSOLHGWRWKHFROOHFWLYHGRVHWRDUULYHDWDQHVWLPDWHRIWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIKHDOWK HIIHFWV WKDW ZRXOG H[SHFWHG ZLWKLQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ ,W VKRXOG EH VWUHVVHG WKDW VXFK HVWLPDWHV DUH VSHFXODWLYH DQG SRVVLEO\ DUH YHU\ SHVVLPLVWLF EHFDXVH WKH\ GHSHQG HQWLUHO\ RQ WKH YDOLGLW\ RI WKH µOLQHDUK\SRWKHVLV¶ZKLFKDVVXPHVWKDWWKHUHDUHVRPHKHDOWKHIIHFWVHYHQDWYDQLVKLQJO\VPDOOOHYHOV RIUDGLDWLRQGRVH

3DUWLFXODUGLIILFXOWLHVDULVHLQGHILQLQJWKHSRSXODWLRQJURXSLQJVDQGWLPHSHULRGVRYHUZKLFK FROOHFWLYHGRVHVVKRXOGEHHYDOXDWHG7KHRUHWLFDOPRGHOVDOORZFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHFROOHFWLYHGRVHWR WKHHQWLUHZRUOGSRSXODWLRQGXHWRHPLVVLRQVIURPDQLQGLYLGXDOQXFOHDULQVWDOODWLRQDQ\ZKHUHLQWKH ZRUOG6LPLODUO\ZKHQFDOFXODWLQJFROOHFWLYHGRVHVIURPHPLVVLRQVLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRWDNHDFFRXQWRI WKH SHUVLVWHQFH RI UDGLRQXFOLGHV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW ORQJ DIWHU WKHLU GLVFKDUJH RU GLVSRVDO WKLV LV H[SUHVVHGE\WKHµLQWHJUDWLRQSHULRG¶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

:DWHUSROOXWLRQ

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

/LTXLG GLVFKDUJHV IURP WKHUPDO SRZHU VWDWLRQV DOVR PD\ EH FRQWDPLQDWHG ZLWK RWKHU PDWHULDOV IRU H[DPSOH GLVFKDUJHV IURP QXFOHDU SRZHU VWDWLRQV FRQWDLQ YHU\ VPDOO TXDQWLWLHV RI UDGLRDFWLYHVXEVWDQFHV)RVVLOIXHOOHGSRZHUVWDWLRQVFDQKDYHVHULRXVHIIHFWVRQZDWHUTXDOLW\WKURXJK OHDFKLQJRIFRQWDPLQDQWVIURPIXHODVKDQGIURP)*'WUHDWPHQWUHVLGXHV

6ROLGZDVWHV

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

9LVXDODPHQLW\

/DQGXVDJHDQGYLVXDOLQWUXVLRQDUHLPSRUWDQWFRQVLGHUDWLRQVLQVLWLQJSRZHUVWDWLRQV9LVXDO LQWUXVLRQ LV SDUWLFXODUO\ LPSRUWDQW ZLWK UHVSHFW WR ODUJH EXLOGLQJV FKLPQH\V DQG FRROLQJ WRZHUV DW WKHUPDOSRZHUVWDWLRQVDQGDOVRIRUVRPHUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\V\VWHPVVXFKDVZLQGIDUPVLQZKLFK

LPSDFWVGHSHQGRQWKHVFHQLFYDOXHVRIWKHDUHDLQZKLFKWKHSURMHFWLVORFDWHGDQGRQWKHDWWLWXGHVRI WKHORFDOSXEOLF

6RFLDODQGHFRQRPLFIDFWRUV

([WHUQDO HIIHFWV DUH LPSRUWDQW QRW RQO\ LQ WHUPV RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW EXW DOVR LQ WHUPV RI HPSOR\PHQW UHVRXUFH GHSOHWLRQ FXOWXUDO LVVXHV HWF>@ (PSOR\PHQW EHQHILWV PD\ SOD\ D SDUWLFXODUO\LPSRUWDQWUROHLQWLPHVRIKLJKXQHPSOR\PHQW7KH\LQIOXHQFHWKHOHYHORISULYDWHLQFRPH DQG LPSDFW RQ JRYHUQPHQW H[SHQGLWXUH RQ VRFLDO VHFXULW\ (PSOR\PHQW HIIHFWV FDQ DOVR KDYH VLJQLILFDQWFRQVHTXHQFHVRQDFRXQWU\¶VWUDGHEDODQFHWKURXJKLPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQ:KLOVWLPSDFWVRQ PRQHWDU\LVVXHVHJFRVWVLQFXUUHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWVXFKDVLQGXFHGSXEOLFH[SHQGLWXUHDQGORVW WD[HV DUH LQ WKHRU\ HDVLHU WR PHDVXUH WKDQ WKH LPSDFWV RQ QRQPRQHWDU\ LVVXHV HJWKH HQYLURQPHQWWKHUHUHPDLQPDMRUSUREOHPVRZLQJWRWKHLQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHVRISXEOLFUHVSRQVLELOLWLHV DQGWKHUHVXOWLQJH[SHQGLWXUHV$OVRLWRIWHQLVGLIILFXOWWRLGHQWLI\WKHVSHFLILFFDXVHVRISDUWLFXODU H[WHUQDOFRVWVZKHWKHUPRQHWDU\RUQRQPRQHWDU\

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

&RPSDULVRQRILPSDFWV

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

UHDVRQDEOHWRDVVXPHDOLQHDUGHSHQGHQFHZLWKRXWDQ\ORZHU]HURGDPDJHWKUHVKROGVEXWWKLVLVQRW YDOLGLQDOOFDVHV'LIIHUHQWWHFKQRORJLHVLPSDFWGLIIHUHQWO\RQYXOQHUDEOHUHFHSWRUVLHVSHFLILFELRWD HFRORJLFDOKDELWDWVRUSDUWLFXODUSK\VLFDORUFKHPLFDOHQYLURQPHQWV

,IWKHVLWHVSHFLILFDSSURDFKLVWDNHQWRHYDOXDWLQJWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIJHQHUDWLRQ SURMHFWV XVLQJ WKH LPSDFW SDWKZD\ PHWKRGRORJ\ VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH LW ZLOO UHTXLUH D YHU\ ODUJH YROXPH RI ZRUN 7KHUHIRUH WKLV DSSURDFK PD\ EH LPSUDFWLFDO ZKHQ VWXG\LQJ SUREOHPV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWKWKHIXOOHQHUJ\V\VWHPRUWKHHOHFWULFSRZHUV\VWHPRZLQJWRWKHZLGHUDQJHRIIDFWRUVWKDWQHHG WREHH[DPLQHGLIDQLPSDFWSDWKZD\LVWREHIXOO\XQGHUVWRRG7KLVUHTXLUHVWKHIROORZLQJGHWDLOHG VWDJHVRIDQDO\VLV

3UHSDULQJ GDWD GHVFULELQJ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH V\VWHP WHFKQRORJLHV IXHOV UHOLDELOLW\HPLVVLRQDEDWHPHQWV\VWHPVDQGWKHVLWH

(VWLPDWLQJWKHTXDQWLWLHVRIHPLVVLRQVDQGRWKHUSRWHQWLDOEXUGHQV7KLVUHOLHVKHDYLO\RQ WKHTXDOLW\RIGDWDFROOHFWHGLQWKHILUVWVWDJHRIWKHDQDO\VLV

'HVFULELQJ WKH WUDQVSRUW RI SROOXWDQWV DQG WKH SURFHVVHV RI SK\VLFDOFKHPLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQRISROOXWDQWV7KHXVHRIDUDQJHRIGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVLVQHFHVVDU\LQRUGHU WRXQGHUVWDQGWKHLQWHUDFWLRQVLQWKLVVWDJH

,GHQWLI\LQJ DQG GHVFULELQJ TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ WKH GRVHV UHFHLYHG SRSXODWLRQV DIIHFWHG FULWLFDOJURXSVDQGVHQVLWLYLW\RIHFRV\VWHPVFULWLFDOORDGV

8QGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG HVWLPDWLQJ GRVHUHVSRQVH IXQFWLRQV HJPRUWDOLW\ UDWH ORVV RI DJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQFRUURVLRQ7KHVHFDQEHFRPSOLFDWHGE\GRVHHIIHFWWKUHVKROGV DQGV\QHUJLVPVDPRQJGLIIHUHQWSROOXWDQWV

'HWHUPLQLQJWKHPDJQLWXGHDQGYDOXHRIDQ\GDPDJHVFDXVHG

,Q SUDFWLFH LW LV QRW IHDVLEOH WR GHWHUPLQH DW WKH RXWVHW WKH ZKROH UDQJH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO GDPDJHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP DOO IXHO F\FOHV RQ D ORFDWLRQVSHFLILF EDVLV &RQVHTXHQWO\ D PRUH IHDVLEOH DSSURDFKLVWRXVHUHVXOWVIURPH[LVWLQJVWXGLHVDQGWRDGDSWWKRVHUHVXOWVWRWKHVSHFLILFVLWXDWLRQE\

DSSO\LQJ V\VWHPDWLF IDFWRUV HJJHQHUDOLVHG GDPDJH IXQFWLRQV DQG GRVHHIIHFW FRHIILFLHQWV +RZHYHU KDYLQJ LQ PLQG WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH (,$ SURFHVV WKLV JHQHULF DSSURDFK IRU DVFULELQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO FRHIILFLHQWV WR HQHUJ\ UHVRXUFH DFWLYLWLHV IUHTXHQWO\ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ODUJH XQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGGRHVQRWDOORZIRUORFDWLRQVSHFLILFDVSHFWVWREHUHSUHVHQWHGIXOO\:KHQGHFLGLQJ ZKLFKDSSURDFKWRWDNHLWLVQHFHVVDU\WREDODQFHWKHDPRXQWRIUHVRXUFHVDYDLODEOHIRUWKHVWXG\DQG WKHUHTXLUHGDFFXUDF\RIWKHVWXG\UHVXOWV

0HWKRGVIRUPDNLQJFRPSDULVRQVRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\VRXUFHV DUHQRWZHOOGHYHORSHGDOWKRXJKWKHUHDUHVHYHUDOZKLFKFDQEHXVHIXO

5DQNHG HQYLURQPHQWDO DVVHVVPHQW 8VH RI UDQNLQJ DVVHVVPHQW SURFHGXUHV LV ZHOO GHYHORSHGLQHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWJHQHUDOO\)XHOF\FOHVDUHEURNHQGRZQ LQWRWKHLUFRPSRQHQWVDQGWKHLPSDFWVIURPHDFKFRPSRQHQWDUHUDQNHGDQGGLVSOD\HGLQ DQDWWHPSWWRLGHQWLI\WKHPDMRULPSDFWVWKDWQHHGIXUWKHUDWWHQWLRQ

(PLVVLRQ YDOXHV DQG DPELHQW TXDOLW\ LQGLFHV %\ QRUPDOLVLQJ HPLVVLRQ YDOXHV WR TXDQWLWLHV SHU XQLW RI HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWHG WKH HPLVVLRQ YDOXHV FDQ EH XWLOLVHG WR FKDUDFWHULVHHQYLURQPHQWVLQWHUPVRIYDULRXVIDFWRUVVRWKDWWKHRYHUDOOTXDOLW\LQGLFHV FDQEHREWDLQHG

&ULWLFDO ORDGV DQG FULWLFDO OHYHOV 7KH FULWLFDO ORDG DQG FULWLFDO OHYHO FRQFHSWV DV GLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQKDVEHHQDSSOLHGWRHFRV\VWHPVLQDQDWWHPSWWRVHWOLPLWVWR HQYLURQPHQWDO EXUGHQV DERYH ZKLFK GDPDJH LV H[SHFWHG WR RFFXU ,I LQIRUPDWLRQ LV DYDLODEOH RQ KRZ IDU WKH FULWLFDO ORDGV DUH H[FHHGHG WKHQ WKLV FDQ EH WDNHQ DV D TXDOLWDWLYHPHDVXUHRIWKHVHYHULW\RILPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW(VWLPDWHVRIFULWLFDO ORDGV FDQ EH REWDLQHG IURP HPSLULFDO UHODWLRQVKLSV KLVWRULFDO GRVHUHVSRQVH GDWD DQG SURFHVVPRGHOVRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW

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

9DOXDWLRQDQGLQFRUSRUDWLRQRIH[WHUQDOFRVWV :K\FDOFXODWHHQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWV"

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µDGGHUV¶

RQ WRS RI LQWHUQDOLVHG HQYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ FRVWV LV LQFUHDVLQJ DPRQJ UHJXODWRUV DQG SROLF\

GHYHORSHUV7KHHYDOXDWLRQDQGDSSOLFDWLRQRIµDGGHUV¶LVQRZWKHVXEMHFWRIVWXG\DQGDVVHVVPHQWE\

DYDULHW\RIDJHQFLHVDQGDFDGHPLFERGLHVLQ(XURSHDQGWKH86$

7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOZD\VLQZKLFKH[WHUQDOLWLHVRQFHWKH\DUHNQRZQFDQEHLQWHJUDWHGLQWR UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ $V ZHOO DV GLUHFW PRQHWLVDWLRQ H[WHUQDOLWLHV PD\ EH VXEMHFW WR µUDWLQJ DQG ZHLJKWLQJ¶ WR SURGXFH D FRPSRVLWH µVFRUH¶ LQFOXGLQJ DOORZDQFHV IRU RWKHU UHVRXUFH DWWULEXWHV HJVXSSO\UHOLDELOLW\RSHUDWLRQFRVWV2WKHUDSSURDFKHVLQYROYHVLPSOHTXDOLWDWLYHMXGJHPHQWVRU UXOHEDVHGPHWKRGVVXFKDVJLYLQJFUHGLWWRJHQHUDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWDUHQRWEDVHGRQFRPEXVWLRQ RIIRVVLOIXHOV7KHVWUHQJWKVDQGZHDNQHVVHVRIWKHVHPHWKRGVKDYHEHHQGLVFXVVHGE\WKH(OHFWULF 3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH>@LQWKH86$

7KHUHLVJURZLQJVXSSRUWIRUPRYHVWRZDUGVWKHµIXOOFRVWSULFLQJ¶DSSURDFKZLWKWKHLPSOLFLW RUH[SOLFLWH[SHFWDWLRQWKDWPDUNHWIRUFHVZRXOGGHOLYHUHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDOEHQHILWVLQDZD\

WKDWPD[LPLVHVHFRQRPLFHIILFLHQF\([SOLFLWPRQHWLVDWLRQRIDZLGHUDQJHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWV DOORZV WKH GDPDJHV WR EH H[SUHVVHG DV FRVWV SHU XQLW RI HQHUJ\ SURGXFHG 7KLV DOORZV GLUHFW DQG FRQVLVWHQWFRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQH[WHUQDOFRVWVDQGFRQYHQWLRQDOLQWHUQDOFRVWVGLIIHUHQWFRQWULEXWRUV WRH[WHUQDOFRVWVDQGGLIIHUHQWIXHOF\FOHVDQGJHQHUDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV

+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHGLIILFXOWLHVZLWKWKHSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQRIWKLVDSSURDFK)RUH[DPSOH WKH RSWLPXP DEDWHPHQW OHYHO RFFXUV ZKHQ WKH PDUJLQDO LQWHUQDOLVHG FRVW RI DEDWHPHQW HTXDOV WKH PDUJLQDOH[WHUQDOHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHFRVW7KLVUDLVHVDQXPEHURITXHVWLRQVWKDWSUHVHQWO\DUH EHLQJZUHVWOHGZLWKVXFKDVKRZWRSURFHHGLIWKHH[WHUQDOGDPDJHFRVWLVQRWNQRZQRUKRZWRGHDO ZLWKWKHGDPDJHFRVWVRIUHVLGXDOGLVFKDUJHVLIRWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDUHFORVHWRRSWLPXP

9DULRXV DXWKRUV >HJ @ LQGLFDWH WKDW GHVSLWH VXFK GLIILFXOWLHV TXDQWLILFDWLRQ DQG PRQHWLVDWLRQRIH[WHUQDOHQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWVLVOLNHO\WROHDGWREHWWHUGHFLVLRQVDQGWKDWRQEDODQFH VRFLHW\LVOLNHO\WREHEHWWHURIIWKDQZRXOGEHWKHFDVHLIH[WHUQDOFRVWVDUHQRWXVHGLQWKHGHFLVLRQ SURFHVV7KHUHLVSRWHQWLDOIRUSLWIDOOVKRZHYHU)RUH[DPSOHWKHLQFRUSRUDWLRQRIH[WHUQDOFRVWVIRU

QHZSODQWVEXWQRWIRUROGSODQWVFRXOGKDYHWKHXQGHVLUDEOHHIIHFWRIGHOD\LQJWKHUHSODFHPHQWRI OHVVHIILFLHQWDQGPRUHHQYLURQPHQWDOO\GDPDJLQJROGHUSODQWV>@

'LIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVWRFRVWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV

7KUHH GLIIHUHQW DSSURDFKHV WR FRVWLQJ KDYH EHHQ XVHG DV PHDVXUHV RI WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFWV RI HQHUJ\ FRQVXPSWLRQ LDEDWHPHQW FRVWV LLPLWLJDWLRQ FRVWV DQG LLLH[WHUQDO HQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHFRVWV

$EDWHPHQW FRVWV DUH WKRVH DULVLQJ IURP WKH LQVWDOODWLRQ DQG RSHUDWLRQ RI HTXLSPHQW IRU SUHYHQWLQJ RU UHGXFLQJ SRWHQWLDOO\ GDPDJLQJ GLVFKDUJHV WR WKH HQYLURQPHQW 7KH\ LQFOXGH IRU H[DPSOHWKHFRVWVRIILOWUDWLRQV\VWHPVDQGWKHFRVWVRIVDIHGLVSRVDORIZDVWHDULVLQJV

0LWLJDWLRQ FRVWV DULVH ZKHQ HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ KDUPIXO HPLVVLRQV RU SRWHQWLDOO\ KDUPIXO DFWLYLWLHVDUHSHUPLWWHGEXWDFWLRQLVWDNHQWRUHGXFHRUFRPSHQVDWHIRUWKHFRQVHTXHQFHV([DPSOHV LQFOXGHµFUHDWLYHFRQVHUYDWLRQ¶SURMHFWVWRUHFUHDWHRUUHSODFHDWDQRWKHUORFDWLRQZLOGOLIHKDELWDWV GHVWUR\HGGXULQJFRQVWUXFWLRQDGGLQJFKHPLFDOVWRODNHVDVDPHDQVWRRIIVHWDFLGLILFDWLRQSODQWLQJ WUHHVWRDEVRUEFDUERQGLR[LGHHPLVVLRQVDQGEXLOGLQJGLNHVWRSURWHFWORZO\LQJDUHDVDJDLQVWVHD OHYHOULVH

(FRQRPLVWV LQGLFDWH WKDWH[WHUQDO HQYLURQPHQWDO GDPDJH FRVWV DUH WKH FRUUHFW EDVLV IRU FRPSDULQJWHFKQRORJLHVDOWKRXJKDEDWHPHQWFRVWVDQGPLWLJDWLRQFRVWVDUHTXRWHGLQPDQ\VWXGLHV ZKHUH WKH FLUFXPVWDQFHV PDNH LW LPSRVVLEOH WR DVVHVV HQYLURQPHQWDO GDPDJH FRVWV +RZHYHU LW ZRXOG EH HUURQHRXV WR DWWHPSW WR DUULYH DW DQ HVWLPDWH RI H[WHUQDO HQYLURQPHQWDO FRVW ZLWKRXW GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ FOHDUO\ DPRQJ WKH WKUHH GLVWLQFWO\ GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI FRVW LHDEDWHPHQW PLWLJDWLRQ GDPDJH(DFKW\SHRIFRVWKDVWREHDVVHVVHGVHSDUDWHO\,QSDUWLFXODULWZRXOGEHDPLVWDNHWRXVH DEDWHPHQWRUPLWLJDWLRQFRVWVDVSUR[\HVWLPDWHVRIGDPDJHFRVWV

,Q SUDFWLFH KRZHYHU WKH VLWXDWLRQ LV OHVV FOHDU FXW 7KH NQRZOHGJH RI FRVWV RI GDPDJH DEDWHPHQWDQGPLWLJDWLRQLVH[WUHPHO\LPSHUIHFWDQGLPSRUWDQWFRVWHOHPHQWVPD\EHPLVVLQJGXHWR WKHODFNRIVFLHQWLILFLQIRUPDWLRQ,QVRPHFDVHVLQGXVWULHVKDYH\HWWRGLVFRYHURULQYHQWZD\VRI DEDWLQJ RU DYRLGLQJ SROOXWDQW UHOHDVHV LQFHQWLYHV QHHG WR EH JLYHQ IRU HQFRXUDJLQJ WKH QHFHVVDU\

UHVHDUFK0LWLJDWLRQPD\LQYROYHSURSHUW\RUODQGQRWRZQHGE\WKHSROOXWHUDQGWKHSURSHUW\PD\

HYHQEHLQDQRWKHUFRXQWU\HJIRUWKHUHSODQWLQJRIIRUHVWVWRDEVRUE&23UHVHQWPHFKDQLVPVIRU SURPRWLQJ DQGRU VXSSRUWLQJ WKH PLWLJDWLRQ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO GDPDJHV PD\ QRW EH DGHTXDWH IRU GHDOLQJ ZLWK PLWLJDWLRQ PHDVXUHV RQVXFK µUHPRWH¶SURSHUW\ ,Q WKHDEVHQFH RI JHQHUDO DJUHHPHQWV DPRQJ DOO FRXQWULHV UHJDUGLQJ PHDVXUHV WR FRPEDW SROOXWLRQ WKH DGRSWLRQ RI VWULFW HQYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ PHDVXUHV E\ VRPH FRXQWULHV FRXOG HQFRXUDJH SROOXWLQJ LQGXVWULHV VLPSO\ WR PLJUDWH WR DUHDVZKHUHSURWHFWLRQSROLFLHVDUHOHVVVHYHUH

9DOXDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHFRVWV 7KHFRQFHSWRIYDOXDWLRQ

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

Im Dokument ² $5HIHUHQFH%RRN (QKDQFHG(OHFWULFLW\6\VWHP$QDO\VLV)RU'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ (Seite 76-92)