• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

6 Wkh Rswlpdo Lqvwuxphqwv

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "6 Wkh Rswlpdo Lqvwuxphqwv"

Copied!
35
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

discussion papers

FS IV 99 - 30

Regulating Complementary Input Supply:

Production Cost Correlation and Limited Liability

Jos Jansen

December 1999

ISSN Nr. 0722 - 6748

Forschungsschwerpunkt Marktprozeß und Unter- nehmensentwicklung Research Area

Market Processes and Corporate Development

(2)

Zitierweise/Citation:

Jos Jansen, Regulating Complementary Input Supply:

Production Cost Correlation and Limited Liability,

Discussion Paper FS IV 99 - 30, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, 1999.

Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH, Reichpietschufer 50, 10785 Berlin, Tel. (030) 2 54 91 - 0

(3)

ABSTRACT

Regulating Complementary Input Supply: Production Cost Correlation and Limited Liability

by Jos Jansen

We study the optimal regulation of complementary input supply. The regulator chooses for either a monopolist producing two complementary inputs in fixed proportion, or two independent firms producing one input each. Under independent input supply, non- monotonic regulatory schemes become optimal for high correlation between input production costs. The optimal regulatory choice depends on the correlation between costs, and on the producers’ liability structure. Under limited liability monopolistic input supply gives a higher expected welfare whenever the correlation coefficient is sufficiently small and positive. For higher correlation independent input supply is chosen, and the regulatory scheme is non-monotonic in total costs.

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG

Regulierung des Angebots komplementärer Inputs: Korrelation von Produktionskosten und beschränkte Haftung

Dieser Beitrag untersucht die optimale Regulierung des Angebots zweier komplemen- tärer Inputs. Der Regulierer entscheidet sich dabei entweder für einen Monopolisten, der zwei komplementäre Inputs in einem konstanten Verhältnis zu einander produziert oder für zwei unabhängige Firmen, die jeweils einen der Inputs produzieren. Bei unabhän- gigem Angebot des Inputs sind nicht monotone Regulierungsverträge optimal für den Fall einer hohen Korrelation zwischen den Produktionskosten der Inputs. Die optimale Regulierungsentscheidung hängt von der Korrelation zwischen Kosten und der Haftungsstruktur des Produzenten ab. Bei beschränkter Haftung führt das Inputangebot durch einen Monopolisten zu einer höheren erwarteten Wohlfahrt, wenn der Korrela- tionskoeffizient klein genug und positiv ist. Für höhere Korrelation wird das unabhän- gige Angebot der Inputs gewählt und die Regulierungsverträge sind hinsichtlich der Gesamtkosten nicht monoton.

(4)

4 Lqwurgxfwlrq

Lq prvw uhjxodwhg lqgxvwulhv wkh surgxfwlrq ri qdo rxwsxw uhtxluhv wkh sur0 gxfwlrq ri pruh wkdq rqh lqsxw1 Iru h{dpsoh/ iru sxeolf xwlolwlhv surgxfwlrq dqg glvwulexwlrq duh wzr glvwlqfw dfwlylwlhv1 Lq wkh whohfrp lqgxvwu| orqj0 glvwdqfh dqg orfdo whohskrq| vhuylfhv fdq eh glvwlqjxlvkhg1 Pruhryhu/ wkhvh lqsxwv duh shuihfwo| frpsohphqwdu| jrrgv wkdw duh xvhg lq {hg sursruwlrqv wr surgxfh wkh qdo rxwsxw1 Wudglwlrqdoo|/ qdo rxwsxw lv vxssolhg e| d uhjx0 odwhg prqrsrolvw wkdw surgxfhv erwk lqsxwv1 Lq wkh 4<;3v dqg 4<<3v/ vhyhudo frxqwulhv ghflghg wr euhdn xs vrph ri wkhvh prqrsrolhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq wkh XV whohfrppxqlfdwlrq pdunhw wkh orqj0glvwdqfh whohskrq| vxsso| zdv vhsd0 udwhg iurp orfdo whohskrq| vxsso|/ dqg wkh vxsso| ri orfdo whohskrqh vhuylfhv zdv ghohjdwhg wr orfdo prqrsrolhv1 Wkh qhz DW)W surylghv orqj0glvwdqfh vhuylfhv dqg vhyhudo Ede| Ehoov vhuyh wkh orfdo pdunhwv14 Lq pdq| Hxurshdq frxqwulhv wkh lqfxpehqw SWWv vwloo surylgh erwk orfdo dqg orqj0glvwdqfh whoh0 skrqh vhuylfhv1

Lq wklv vhwwlqj d uhjxodwru idfhv wkh iroorzlqj rujdql}dwlrqdo fkrlfh1 Hlwkhu doo lqsxwv duh surgxfhg e| rqh pxowl0surgxfw prqrsrolvw/ ru hdfk lqsxw lv surgxfhg e| dq lqghshqghqw lqsxw surgxfhu1 D fkdqjh ri wkh lqgxvwu|*v rujdql}dwlrq fkdqjhv lqfhqwlyhv ri wkh lqgxvwu|*v upv1 Wkh uhjxodwru fdq xvh wklv idfw e| fkrrvlqj wkh up*v rujdql}dwlrqdo vwuxfwxuh vxfk wkdw wkh surgxfhuv* lqfhqwlyhv duh ehvw vxlwhg iru pd{lpl}lqj vrfldo zhoiduh1 Wklv uhjxodwru| fkrlfh lv vwxglhg lq wklv sdshu1

Zh devwudfw iurp whfkqrorjlfdo uhdvrqv iru fkrrvlqj d fhuwdlq rujdql}dwlrq ri lqsxw vxsso|1 Li wkh uhjxodwru zrxog eh ixoo| lqiruphg derxw wkh lqsxwv*

surgxfwlrq frvwv/ dqg li kh zrxog kdyh hqrxjk uhjxodwru| lqvwuxphqwv/ wkh up*v rujdql}dwlrqdo vwuxfwxuh zrxog qrw pdwwhu1 Krzhyhu/ lq d pruh uhdolvwlf vhwwlqj/ wkh uhjxodwru lv qrw frpsohwho| lqiruphg derxw wkh lqsxw surgxfhuv*

frvwv1 Lq rughu wr uhfhlyh wuxwkixo frvw phvvdjhv iurp wkh lqsxw vxssolhu+v,/

wkh uhjxodwru kdv wr sd| wkh vxssolhu+v, vrfldoo| frvwo| lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv1

4Wkh 4<<9 Whohfrppxqlfdwlrqv Dfw kdv doorzhg wkh Ede| Ehoo lq wkh orqj0glvwdqfh whohfrp pdunhw/ exw wklv kdv qrw hhfwlyho| fkdqjhg wkh pdunhw vwuxfwxuh vr idu1

5

(5)

Wr hfrqrpl}h rq wkhvh wudqvihuv/ wkh uhjxodwru pxvw frpplw wr uhiudlq iurp surgxfwlrq lq pruh vwdwhv ri qdwxuh wkdq zrxog rwkhuzlvh eh vrfldoo| ghvlu0 deoh1 Lq wkh vhfrqg0ehvw vroxwlrq/ wkh uhjxodwru wudghv r wkh vrfldo frvw ri wudqvihuv djdlqvw doorfdwlyh h!flhqf|1 Lq vxfk d vlwxdwlrq wkh rujdql}dwlrq ri lqsxw vxsso| pdwwhuv1

Rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrq lv ghwhuplqhg e| wzr frq lfwlqj hhfwv1 Iluvw/ wkhuh lv wkh lqirupdwlrqdo h{whuqdolw| hhfw/ zklfk lv vwxglhg e| Edurq dqg Eh0 vdqnr +4<<5, dqg Jloehuw dqg Ulrugdq +4<<8,1 Zkhq rqh surgxfhu ryhuvwdwhv klv frvw/ wklv ghfuhdvhv wkh rwkhu surgxfhu*v lqfhqwlyh wr ryhuvwdwh klv frvw1 Vlqfh lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxssolhuv gr qrw ohduq hdfk rwkhu*v frvw phvvdjh dw wkh prphqw ri phvvdjh vhqglqj/ wkh lqsxw surgxfhuv duh qrw deoh wr fru0 uhfw wkhlu phvvdjhv iru wklv h{whuqdolw|1 Xqghu prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|

wkh prqrsrolvw lqwhuqdol}hv wklv h{whuqdolw|1 Wklv jlyhv wkh prqrsrolvw ohvv lqfhqwlyhv wr ryhuvwdwh wkh lqglylgxdo lqsxw surgxfwlrq frvwv1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh uhjxodwru vdyhv lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv e| fkrrvlqj prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|1 Vhfrqg/ wkhuh lv wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw/ dv vwxglhg e| Qdohex dqg Vwljolw} +4<;6, dqg Vkohlihu +4<;8,1 Zkhq surgxfwlrq ri wkh wzr lqsxwv uh0 txluhv frpsdudeoh whfkqrorjlhv/ wkh frvwv iru surylglqj wkhvh lqsxwv lv olnho|

wr eh fruuhodwhg1 Lq wkdw fdvh/ xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw surgxfwlrq hdfk surgxfhu*v frvw phvvdjh wr wkh uhjxodwru jlyhv vrph lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh rwkhu surgxfhu*v frvw1 Wkh uhjxodwru fdq h{sorlw wklv idfw e| sxqlvklqj wkh surgxfhuv iru vhqglqj phvvdjhv wkdw jlyh xqolnho| frvw frpelqdwlrqv dqg e|

uhzduglqj pruh olnho| rqhv1 Wkhuhe| wkh uhjxodwru fdq h{wudfw vrph ri wkh surgxfhuv* vxusoxv1 Ehfdxvh d prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxssolhu fdq frruglqdwh klv frvw phvvdjhv/ vxfk d vfkhph grhv qrw zrun xqghu prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|1 Gdqd +4<<6, vwxglhv d vlplodu rujdql}dwlrqdo sureohp lq d prgho zkhuh wkh vxssolhg lqsxwv duh vxevwlwxwhv1 Wkh sdshu e| Gdqd vkrzv wkdw iru orz hqrxjk fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv/ prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso| lv wkh uhjxodwru*v rswlpdo fkrlfh1 Iru doo rwkhu ydoxhv ri wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw wkh |dug0 vwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw vwloo grplqdwhv1 Dv zh revhuyhg/ wkhuh duh lpsruwdqw uhjxodwhg lqgxvwulhv lq zklfk wkh jrrgv vxssolhg duh frpsohphqwv1 Lq wklv sdshu zh vwxg| wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph iru wkhvh lqgxvwulhv erwk xqghu prqrsrolvwlf dqg lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|1 Zh vkrz wkdw d vlplodu uhvxow

6

(6)

krogv wuxh iru dq lqgxvwu| zlwk shuihfwo| frpsohphqwdu| jrrgv1 Wkh uhjxod0 wru| vfkhphv wkdw xqghuslq wkh rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrq ri lqsxw vxsso|/ krz0 hyhu/ duh txlwh glhuhqw iurp wkdw lq Gdqd +4<<6,1 Zkhq lqsxwv duh qhhghg lq {hg sursruwlrqv wr surgxfh wkh rxwsxw/ lw zrxog eh vrfldoo| zdvwhixo wr fkrrvh d uhjxodwru| vfkhph wkdw grhv qrw uhvshfw wkhvh sursruwlrqv1 Wklv phdqv wkdw txdqwlw| glvfulplqdwlrq ehwzhhq lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxssolhuv lv qrw ghvludeoh1 Wkhuhiruh wkh uhjxodwru pxvw uho| pruh rq wkh wudqvihuv wr glvfulplqdwh ehwzhhq lqghshqghqw vxssolhuv1

Wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| glhuv iurp wkdw xqghu prqrsrolvwlf vxsso|1 Hvshfldoo| iru kljko| fruuhodwhg frvwv wkh rswlpdo vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| lv qrw prqrwrqrxv lq wrwdo frvwv/ dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ qrw ihdvleoh xqghu prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|1 Wklv jlyhv ulvh wr wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw1 Wkh rffxuuhqfh ri wkh |dug0 vwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw ghshqgv rq wkh uhjxodwru*v srvvlelolw| ri sxqlvklqj surgxfhuv iru vhqglqj xqolnho| +dqg xqidyrudeoh, frvw phvvdjhv1 Wkh uhjxod0 wru sxqlvkhv d surgxfhu e| ohwwlqj klp hduq orz surwv ru hyhq vxhu orvvhv lq vrph lqvwdqfhv1 Wkh h{whqw wr zklfk wkh uhjxodwru fdq irufh surgxfhuv wr vxhu orvvhv ghshqgv rq wkh h{whqw wr zklfk surgxfhuv duh surwhfwhg e| old0 elolw| uxohv1 Zh vd| wkdw d surgxfhu*v oldelolw| lv olplwhg zkhq wkdw surgxfhu fdqqrw eh irufhg wr ehdu uhdol}hg orvvhv dv d frqvhtxhqfh ri sduwlflsdwlqj lq wkh uhjxodwru| frqwudfw1 Wklv ghqlwlrq fruuhvsrqgv wr olplwhg }hur0oldelolw|

frqwudfwv dv lq Vdsslqjwrq +4<;6, dqg lpsrvhv dq h{ srvw sduwlflsdwlrq frq0 vwudlqw rq wkh uhjxodwru| frqwudfw1

Zkhq surgxfhuv kdyh xqolplwhg oldelolw|/ wkh| fdq eh irufhg wr ehdu h{

srvw orvvhv1 Erwk Fuìphu dqg PfOhdq +4<;8, dqg Ghpvnl dqg Vdsslqjwrq +4<;7, vkrz wkdw/ xqghu dvvxpswlrqv vlplodu wr rxuv ulvn0qhxwudo uhjx0 odwru dqg surgxfhuv/ srvlwlyho| fruuhodwhg frvwv/ dqg d elqdu| vxssruw iru wkh surgxfhuv* vwdwh yduldeohv wkh uhjxodwru fdq dfklhyh wkh uvw0ehvw vr0 oxwlrq xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|15 Kh grhv wklv e| sxqlvklqj erwk surgxfhuv vhyhuho| lq xqolnho| frvw vwdwhv1 Xqghu prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|/

5Wkhvh prghov vwxg| ixoo uhqw h{wudfwlrq zkhq surgxfwv duh vxevwlwxwhv1 Vlplodu rswlpdo vfkhphv duh dssolfdeoh zkhq surgxfwv duh frpsohphqwdu|1 Dq h{fhswlrq wr wklv uhjxodulw|

lv wkh prgho ghvfulehg e| Dxulro dqg Odrqw +4<<5,1 Lq wkdw prgho wkh uvw0ehvw vroxwlrq lv qrw uhdfkhg iru lqwhuphgldwh ghjuhhv ri fruuhodwlrq ehfdxvh lw frqwdlqv dq lqghshqghqwo|

glvwulexwhg frvw frpsrqhqw/ ehvlghv d fruuhodwhg rqh1

7

(7)

kh fdq rqo| uhdfk d vhfrqg0ehvw vroxwlrq +Edurq dqg P|huvrq/ 4<;5,1 Wkdw lv/ xqghu xqolplwhg oldelolw|/ wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw grplqdwhv wkh lqirupdwlrqdo h{whuqdolw| hhfw iru doo srvlwlyh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv1

Lq rughu wr ixoo| h{wudfw surgxfhuv* uhqwv/ wkh uhjxodwru pxvw irufh wkh surgxfhuv wr ehdu h{ srvw orvvhv iru xqolnho| frvw frpelqdwlrqv1 Iru vpdoo/ exw srvlwlyh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh frvwv wkh vfkhph wkdw lpsohphqwv wkh uvw0 ehvw vroxwlrq uholhv rq vhyhuh h{ srvw orvvhv1 Zkhq surgxfhuv duh surwhfwhg e| olplwhg oldelolw|/ wkh| fdqqrw eh irufhg wr ehdu vxfk orvvhv1 Lq wkdw fdvh wkh vpdoohu wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq frvwv/ wkh eljjhu wkh h{whqw wr zklfk wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph glhuv iurp wkh ixoo uhqw h{wudfwlqj vfkhph1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh vpdoohu wkh frvw fruuhodwlrq/ wkh vpdoohu wkh h{wudfwhg uhqwv/ dqg wkh zhdnhu wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw1

Li frvwv duh lqghshqghqwo| glvwulexwhg/ wkhuh lv qr |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw/ zkloh wkh lqirupdwlrqdo h{whuqdolw| hhfw vwloo krogv1 Wkhq xqghu erwk olplwhg dqg xqolplwhg oldelolw|/ prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso| lv wkh ehvw ru0 jdql}dwlrqdo fkrlfh iru d uhjxodwru1 Wklv lv looxvwudwhg lq Edurq dqg Ehvdqnr +4<<5, dqg Jloehuw dqg Ulrugdq +4<<8,/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Li frvwv duh shuihfwo|

fruuhodwhg/ wkh glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq olplwhg dqg xqolplwhg oldelolw| glvdsshduv1 Lq wklv vlwxdwlrq wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw fohduo| grplqdwhv wkh lq0 irupdwlrqdo h{whuqdolw| hhfw1 Prruh +4<<5, vkrzv wkdw wkh uvw0ehvw fdq eh xqltxho| lpsohphqwhg xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|16

Uhfhqw vwxglhv dqdo|}h wkh rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrq ri uhjxodwhg lqgxvwulhv lq glhuhqw vhwwlqjv1 Vhyhulqry +4<<:, vwxglhv krz wkh rswlpdo lqgxvwuldo rujdql}dwlrq ri upv zlwk lqghshqghqwo| glvwulexwhg sulydwh lqirupdwlrq rq surgxfwlrq frvwv ghshqg rq wkh vxevwlwxwdelolw| ri surgxfwv1 Lrvvd +4<<<, vwxglhv rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrq lq d prgho lq zklfk upv kdyh sulydwh lqiru0 pdwlrq derxw d ghpdqg lqwhufhsw1 Mhrq +4<<;,/ dqg Odrqw dqg Pduwlpruw +4<<:, hqgrjhql}h wkh frvw ri lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| e| frqvlghulqj fro0 oxvlrq ehwzhhq djhqwv1 Ilqdoo| Gdohq +4<<;, frpsduhv upv* lqfhqwlyhv wr lqyhvw lq surfhvv lqqrydwlrq lq d vhwwlqj zlwk fruuhodwhg sulydwh frvw lqiru0

6Lq rughu wr rewdlq xqltxhqhvv/ pxowl0vwdjh phfkdqlvpv lq frpelqdwlrq zlwk wkh vxe0 jdph shuihfw htxloleulxp uhqhphqw duh qhfhvvdu|1 Pxowl0vwdjh phfkdqlvpv duh qrw vwxg0 lhg lq wklv sdshu1 Qdohex dqg Vwljolw} +4<;6, dqg Vkohlihu +4<;8, vkrz wkdw wkh wuxwk0 whoolqj uvw0ehvw lv rqh ri wkh htxloleuld ri wkh rswlpdo phfkdqlvp1

8

(8)

pdwlrq1

Wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv1 Wkh prgho ri rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrqdo fkrlfh lv ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 51 Lq vhfwlrq 6 zh ghulyh wkh htxloleulxp fkrlfhv ri wkh uhjxodwru dqg wkh lqsxw surgxfhuv jlyhq wkh fkrlfh rq wkh rujdql}dwlrq ri lqsxw surgxfwlrq1 D frpsdulvrq ehwzhhq prqrsrolvwlf dqg lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| lv pdgh lq vhfwlrq 71 Vhfwlrq 8 frqfoxghv wkh sdshu1

5 Wkh Prgho

Wkh sod|huv ri wkh uhjxodwlrq jdph duh wkh uhjxodwru/ dqg wkh surgxfwlrq xqlwv ri lqsxw 4 dqg 51 Wkh surgxfwlrq ri rqh xqlw ri dq lqglylvleoh rxwsxw zlwk vrfldo ydoxh T uhtxluhv wkh vxsso| ri rqh xqlw ri lqsxw 4 dqg rqh xqlw ri lqsxw 51 Wkh frvw ri surgxflqj lqsxw / w + ' c 2,/ fdq eh hlwkhu kljk/ w/

ru orz/ w/ zlwk f w w1 Wkh sod|huv sod| d 80vwdjh jdph zlwk lqfrpsohwh lqirupdwlrq1 Fkurqrorjlfdoo|/ wkh iroorzlqj fkrlfhv duh pdgh1

Lq wkh uvw vwdjh ri wkh jdph wkh uhjxodwru fkrrvhv hlwkhu prqrsrolvwlf ru lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|1 Wklv ghflvlrq lqgxfhv wzr vxejdphv= wkh vxejdph diwhu fkrrvlqj prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|/ dqg wkh vxejdph iru lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|1 Wkhvh vxejdphv duh ghvfulehg lq wkh uhpdlqghu ri wklv vhfwlrq1 Lq wkh prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso| +PLV, vxejdph/ wkh uhjxodwru vhwv d wudqvihu vfkhph A G i2wc w n wc 2wj $ ? wkdw vshflhv wkh wudqvihu iurp wkh uhjxodwru wr wkh prqrsrolvw lq fdvh wkh prqrsrolvw*v uhsruw rq wrwdo frvw ri surgxfwlrq lv 2w/ w n w dqg 2w/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh wudqvihu lv qrw frqglwlrqdo rq zkhwkhu ru qrw surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkh uhjxodwru ohwv surgxfwlrq rffxu zlwk suredelolw| ' G i2wc w n wc 2wj $ dfc o17

7Lw vx!fhv wr irfxv dwwhqwlrq wr d uhjxodwru| vfkhph wkdw ghshqgv rq wrwdo uhsruwhg frvwv h @ h4. h5rqo|/ vlqfh wkh lqsxwv duh shuihfw frpsohphqwv1 Ehfdxvh wkh lqsxwv duh surgxfhg lq {hg sursruwlrq/ wkh lqfhqwlyhv ri wkh uhjxodwru dv zhoo dv wkh prqrsrolvw duh v|pphwulf lq wkh frpsrqhqwv* frvwv1 Li wkh uhjxodwru zrxog rhu dq dv|pphwlf vfkhph/

hlwkhu wkh prqrsrolvw/ ru klpvhoi zrxog eh ehwwhu r fkrrvlqj rqo| rqh ri wkh vfkhphv iru +> , dv zhoo dv +> ,1 Wkh uhjxodwru fdq wkhuhiruh gr qr ehwwhu wkdq rhulqj d vfkhph wkdw lv v|pphwulf lq frvw uhsruwv1

Lq d prgho zlwk glylvleoh rxwsxw/ fkrrvlqj TP+=, zrxog eh uhjxodwlrq ri txdqwlwlhv1 Lq d ixoo| uhjxodwhg lqgxvwu| uhjxodwhg txdqwlw| lv lq d rqh0wr0rqh uhodwlrq wr sulfh wkurxjk frqvxphuv* ghpdqg1 Wkhq uhjxodwlrq ri TL+=, lv htxlydohqw wr sulfh uhjxodwlrq1 Gxh wr wkh olqhdulw| ri wkh suhvhqw prgho/ lw lv rswlpdo iru wkh uhjxodwru wr hlwkhu uhtxluh ru iruelg surgxfwlrq zlwk suredelolw| rqh1

9

(9)

Qdwxuh fkrrvhv wkh frvwv iru surgxflqj lqsxw 4 dqg 5 lq wkh wklug vwdjh ri wkh jdph e| gudzlqj wkhvh frvwv iurp d v|pphwulf suredelolw| ghqvlw|1 Wkh sulru suredelolwlhv duh vkrzq lq Wdeoh 5141 Lq wklv wdeoh zh ghslfw sulru suredelolwlhv hdwc w2o/ iru wc w2 5 iwc wj1

w

} € ~ w w w2

w

w Ru ^

^ RM

^Wdeoh 4= sulru suredelolwlhv`

Qrwh wkdw wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw lv 4 ' ERuRn^ERuRM3^M2n^1 Wklv phdqv wkdw zkhq ^ 's

RuRM wkh surgxfwlrq frvwv ri wkh lqsxwv duh lqghshqghqwo|

gudzq iurp wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Zkhq ^ ' f wkhuh lv shuihfw srvlwlyh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh surgxfwlrq frvwv ri wkh lqsxwv1 Zh dvvxph wkdw 4 f/ ru f ^ s

RuRM1 Wkh prqrsrolvw ohduqv wkh surgxfwlrq frvwv ri erwk lqsxwv/

w dqg w21Wkh uhjxodwru lv qrw lqiruphg derxw wkh surgxfwlrq frvwv ri lqsxw 4 dqg 51

Gxh wr wkh uhyhodwlrq sulqflsoh +h1j1 vhh P|huvrq 4<;5/ Sursrvlwlrq 5,/ wkh uhjxodwru fdq irfxv rq gluhfw uhyhodwlrq phfkdqlvpv zlwkrxw orvv ri jhqhudolw|1 Jlyhq wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph/ wkh prqrsrolvw vhqgv d phvvdjh derxw klv wrwdo frvw wr wkh uhjxodwru lq wkh irxuwk vwdjh ri wkh jdph1 Wkh prqrsrolvw vhqgv phvvdjh hX 5 i2wc w n wc 2wj/ dqg wkh uhjxodwru*v lqvwuxphqwv duh d ixqfwlrq ri wkhvh phvvdjhv/ iA EhXc 'EhXj1

Jlyhq wkhvh lqvwuxphqwv dqg klv frvw phvvdjh/ wkh prqrsrolvw ghflghv zkhwkhu ru qrw wr sduwlflsdwh lq wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph lq wkh iwk vwdjh ri wkh jdph1 Lq fdvh kh ghflghv qrw wr sduwlflsdwh/ kh jhwv }hur surwv1 Zkhqhyhu wkh prqrsrolvw fkrrvhv wr sduwlflsdwh/ wkh vfkhph lv lpsohphqwhg lq wkh odvw vwdjh ri wkh jdph1

Jlyhq wkh uhjxodwru*v uvw0vwdjh fkrlfhv dqg wkh vhfrqg0vwdjh sulydwh lq0 irupdwlrq/ wkh prqrsrolvw pd{lpl}hv klv h{shfwhg surw1 Wkh uhjxodwru pd{0 lpl}hv h{shfwhg vrfldo zhoiduh/ zklfk lv ghqhg dv wkh vxp ri wrwdo h{shfwhg

:

(10)

surwv dqg wkh qhw frqvxphuv* vxusoxv/ doorzlqj iru glvwulexwlrqdo glvwruwlrqv fdxvhg e| wd{hv1 Li wkh prqrsrolvw sduwlflsdwhv lq wkh vfkhph/ wkhq vrfldo zhoiduh lv ghqhg dv=

`EhXc X ' T 'EhX E n bAEhX n EhXc X

zkhuh T lv wkh vrfldo ydoxh ri wkh surgxfhg rxwsxw/ b uhsuhvhqwv wkh vrfldo frvw ri sxeolf ixqgv/8 dqg wkh prqrsrolvw*v h{shfwhg surw lv=

EhXc X ' A EhX X'EhXc zlwk Xc hX 5 i2wc w n wc 2wj1

Lq wkh lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| +LLV, vxejdph/ wkh uhjxodwru vhwv d wudqv0 ihu vfkhph E|c |2 G iwc wj iwc wj $ ? ? zlwk wudqvihuv iurp wkh uhjxodwru wr wkh surgxfhu ri lqsxw 4 dqg 5/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Ixuwkhupruh kh fkrrvhv d suredelolw| ri surgxfwlrq 'U G iwc wj iwc wj $ dfc o1 Wkh lqsxw surgxf0 wlrq frvwv duh gudzq iurp wkh vdph sulru suredelolw| glvwulexwlrq dv xqghu PLV1 Hdfk surgxfhu lv sulydwho| lqiruphg derxw klv rzq frvw/ zkloh frppx0 qlfdwlrq ehwzhhq wkh wzr lqsxw surgxfhuv derxw wkhlu frvwv lv qrw srvvleoh1 Wkh uhjxodwru lv qrw lqiruphg derxw wkh surgxfwlrq frvwv ri lqsxw 4 dqg 51 Jlyhq wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph/ wkh lqsxw surgxfhuv vlpxowdqhrxvo| dqg lqgh0 shqghqwo| vhqg d phvvdjh derxw wkhlu frvwv wr wkh uhjxodwru lq wkh irxuwk vwdjh ri wkh jdph1 Lqsxw surgxfhu vhqgv phvvdjh hw iru ' c 2/ dqg wkh uhjxodwru*v lqvwuxphqwv duh d ixqfwlrq ri wkhvh phvvdjhv/ i|Ehwc |2Ehwc 'UEhwj/

zkhuh hw ' Ehwchw2 5 iwc wj iwc wj1

Lq wkh iwk vwdjh ri wkh jdph wkh lqsxw surgxfhuv ohduq hdfk rwkhuv* frvwv dqg ghflgh zkhwkhu ru qrw wr sduwlflsdwh lq wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph1 Wklv vwdjh uh hfwv wkh surgxfhuv* olplwhg oldelolw|1 Xqolplwhgo| oldeoh surgxfhuv zrxog kdyh wr pdnh wkhlu sduwlflsdwlrq ghflvlrq lq wkh wklug vwdjh ri wkh jdph rq edvlv ri lqwhulp surw hydoxdwlrq1 Li rqh lqsxw surgxfhu ghflghv qrw wr sduwlflsdwh/ erwk surgxfhuv uhfhlyh }hur surw> li erwk lqsxw surgxfhuv fkrrvh wr sduwlflsdwh/ wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph lv lpsohphqwhg1

8Lq vrph rwkhu prghov ri uhjxodwru| hfrqrplfv/ h1j1 Edurq dqg P|huvrq +4<;5,/ vrfldo zhoiduh lv ghqhg dv wkh zhljkwhg vxp ri frqvxphuv* vxusoxv dqg lqgxvwu|*v surwv/ Z @ Y T . / zlwk 3 ? 41 Vxfk d vshflfdwlrq jlyhv vlplodu txdolwdwlyh uhvxowv1

;

(11)

Jlyhq wkh uhjxodwru*v uvw0vwdjh fkrlfhv dqg wkh vhfrqg0vwdjh sulydwh lq0 irupdwlrq/ hdfk lqsxw surgxfhu pd{lpl}hv klv h{shfwhg surw1 Li erwk lqsxw surgxfhuv sduwlflsdwh lq wkh vfkhph/ vrfldo zhoiduh lv ghqhg dv=

`UEhwc w ' T 'UEhw E n bd|Ehw n |2Ehwo n dZEhwc w n Z2Ehwc woc dqg up *v h{shfwhg surw lv=

ZEhwc w ' |Ehw w'UEhw/ zlwk w ' Ewc w2 dqg ' c 21

D vnhwfk wkh wlplqj ri wkh jdph lv ghslfwhg lq Wdeoh 5151 Ghqrwh wkh prqrsrolvw e| P/ dqg lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxssolhu 4 +uhvs1 5, e| L4 +uhvs1 L5,1

| '  Uhjxodwru= PLV Uhjxodwru= LLV

| ' 2 Uhjxodwru=

iA Ec 'Ej Uhjxodwru=

i|Ec |2Ec 'UEj

| ' 2 P ohduqv frvwv=

Ewc w2 5 iwc wj2 L4 ohduqv frvw w 5 iwc wj L5 ohduqv frvw w2 5 iwc wj

| ' P vhqgv phvvdjh=

X 5 i2wc w n wc 2wjh

L4 vhqgv phvvdjh= hw 5 iwc wj L5 vhqgv phvvdjh= hw2 5 iwc wj

| ' e L4/L5 ohduq hdfk rwkhuv frvwv

L4/L5 dffhsw2uhmhfw vfkhph

| ' D Lpsohphqw vfkhph Lpsohphqw vfkhph

^Wdeoh 5= vhtxhqfh ri pryhv`

Zh vroyh wkh jdph edfnzdugv1 Lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq zh vroyh wkh jdph xs wr wkh uhjxodwru*v lqgxvwuldo rujdql}dwlrq fkrlfh1 Vhfwlrq 7 forvhv wkh prgho*v dqdo|vlv e| fkdudfwhul}lqj wkh rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrqdo fkrlfh iru wkh uhjxodwru1

6 Wkh Rswlpdo Lqvwuxphqwv

Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh vwxg| wkh htxloleulxp vwudwhjlhv ri wkh uhjxodwru dqg lqsxw surgxfhu+v, jlyhq wkh rujdql}dwlrq ri lqsxw vxsso|1 Lq wkh uvw vxevhfwlrq zh fkdudfwhul}h wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph xqghu prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|1 Wkh vhfrqg vxevhfwlrq fkdudfwhul}hv wkh rswlpdo vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|1 Doo surriv duh uhohjdwhg wr wkh Dsshqgl{1

<

(12)

614 Prqrsrolvwlf Lqsxw Vxsso| +PLV,

Wkh uhjxodwru| sureohp xqghu PLV lv vlplodu wr wkdw lq Edurq dqg P|huvrq +4<;5,1 Wklv phdqv wkdw wkh uhjxodwru idfhv wkh iroorzlqj phfkdqlvp ghvljq sureohp=

tA Ec'4@ E.Xi`EXc Xj v1w1

EXc X EhXc X +4,

EXc X f/ iru doo Xc hX 5 i2wc w n wc 2wj +5, Lqhtxdolw| +4, lv wkh lqfhqwlyh frpsdwlelolw| frqvwudlqw/ zklfk vwdwhv wkdw lw lv rswlpdo iru wkh prqrsrolvw wr uhyhdo lwv wuxh frvwv1 Lqhtxdolw| +5, lv wkh prqrsrolvw*v sduwlflsdwlrq frqvwudlqw1 D uhjxodwru| vfkhph wkdw vdwlvhv erwk +4, dqg +5,/ lv fdoohg ihdvleoh1 Lq wklv vwdqgdug vhwwlqj wkh uhjxod0 wru| lqvwuxphqw vfkhph lv ihdvleoh li dqg rqo| li wkh suredelolw| zlwk zklfk surgxfwlrq rffxuv lv qrq0lqfuhdvlqj lq wkh prqrsrolvw*v frvw phvvdjh/ l1h1/

f 'E2w 'Ew n w 'E2w 1

Jlyhq d qrq0lqfuhdvlqj suredelolw| ri wkh surgxfwlrq vfkhph/ zh fdq hdv0 lo| ghulyh wkh rswlpdo wudqvihuv1

Ohppd 4 Iru PLV wkh rswlpdo wudqvihuv duh vxfk wkdw wkh| uhlpexuvh wkh prqrsrolvw*v h{shfwhg frvw dqg jlyh klp dq lqirupdwlrqdo uhqw wkdw lv qrq0 lqfuhdvlqj lq klv frvwv=

AE ' X'EX n Ew w[

hX:X

'EhX/ iru X 5 i2wc w n wc 2wj Dqdorjrxv wr Edurq dqg P|huvrq +4<;5,/ wklv vhfrqg0ehvw wudqvihu vfkhph lv qrq0lqfuhdvlqj lq wkh prqrsrolvw*v frvw phvvdjh1

Diwhu vxevwlwxwlqj iru wkh rswlpdo wudqvihuv lq wkh h{shfwhg zhoiduh ixqf0 wlrq/ wkh pd{lpl}dwlrq sureohp ehfrphv=

t'4@ Ei'E2wRME2w n 'Ew n w2^Ew n w n 'E2wRuE2wj v1w1 f 'E2w 'Ew n w 'E2w c

43

(13)

zlwk

EX ' T E n bX bhdwn w2 Xo

hdwn w2 ' XoEw w/ iru X 5 i2wc w n wc 2wjc wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh dw frvw X/ l1h1/ wkh vrfldo ydoxh ri wkh rxwsxw plqxv wkh vrfldo frvwv ri surgxfwlrq plqxv lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv1 Ehfdxvh lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv duh qrq0qhjdwlyh/ wkh vhfrqg0ehvw suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq duh vxfk wkdw lq vrph fdvhv surgxfwlrq grhv qrw rffxu ghvslwh wkh idfw wkdw lw zrxog eh ghvludeoh lq wkh uvw0ehvw1 Wkh suredelolw| vfkhph wudghv r doorfdwlyh h!flhqf| dqg lqirupdwlrqdo uhqw vdylqj1

Lw lv hdvlo| yhulhg wkdw wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh lv qrq0lqfuhdvlqj lq surgxf0 wlrq frvwv iru suredelolwlhv ^ wkdw h{fhhg wkh fulwlfdo ydoxh=

^ ' RME RM 2ERM nbb n 

Dw wkh rswlpxp/ surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh zkhqhyhu wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh lv qrq0qhjdwlyh/ zklfk jlyhv d qrq0lqfuhdvlqj suredelolw| vfkhph1 Wklv lv vwdwhg lq wkh iroorzlqj ohppd1

Ohppd 5 Iru PLV dqg ^ ^/ surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh zlwk fhuwdlqw| zkhq0 hyhu wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh lv srvlwlyh/ dqg wkhuh lv qr surgxfwlrq rwkhuzlvh=

'EX '

/ li EX f

f/ rwkhuzlvh / iru X 5 i2wc w n wc 2wj

Iru orzhu ydoxhv ri ^ +kljk fruuhodwlrq, wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh lv qr orqjhu prqrwrqrxv lq frvwv/ vlqfh Ew n w E2w1 Dqdorjrxv wr P|huvrq +4<;4, wkh vroxwlrq lv irxqg e| htxdol}lqj wkh suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq iru frvwv Ew n w dqg 2w/ dqg pd{lpl}lqj h{shfwhg zhoiduh jlyhq wkdw frqvwudlqw1 Wklv lv vwdwhg lq wkh iroorzlqj ohppd1

Ohppd 6 Iru PLV dqg ^ ^/ +l, li erwk surgxfwlrq xqlwv kdyh orz frvwv/

surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh zlwk fhuwdlqw| zkhqhyhu wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh lv srvl0 wlyh=

'E2w '

/ li E2w f f/ rwkhuzlvh/

44

(14)

+ll, iru rwkhu frvw frpelqdwlrqv/ surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh zlwk fhuwdlqw| zkhq0 hyhu wkh frqglwlrqdo h{shfwhg yluwxdo zhoiduh ri surgxfwlrq/ jlyhq dw ohdvw rqh kljk frvw surgxfwlrq xqlw/ lv srvlwlyh=

'Ew n w ' 'E2w '

/ li 2^Ew n w n RME2w f f/ rwkhuzlvh1

Lq wkh qh{w vxevhfwlrq zh dqdo|}h wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|1

615 Lqghshqghqw Lqsxw Vxsso| +LLV,

Wkh uhjxodwru| sureohp xqghu LLV lv uhodwhg wr wkdw lq Gdqd +4<<6,1 Zkloh Gdqd vwxglhv dq lqgxvwu| zlwk vxevwlwxwdeoh lqsxwv/ zh vwxg| frpsohphqwdu|

lqsxw vxsso|1 Vlqfh wkh lqsxwv duh qhhghg lq {hg sursruwlrqv wr surgxfh wkh rxwsxw/ lw zrxog eh vrfldoo| zdvwhixo wr fkrrvh glvfulplqdwru| suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq1 Wklv uhgxfhv wkh qxpehu ri lqvwuxphqwv wkdw wkh uhjxodwru fdq xvh hhfwlyho|1 Wkh uhjxodwru vroyhv wkh iroorzlqj phfkdqlvp ghvljq sureohp=

t|Ec|4@ 2Ec'UE.wi`UEwc wj v1w1

.wiZEwc wj .wiZdEhwc wc woj/ iru doo c ' c 2/ 9' / dqg wchw 5 iwc wj

+6, ZEwc w f/ iru doo ' c 2/ dqg wc w25 iwc wj +7, Lqhtxdolwlhv +6, duh wkh lqsxw surgxfhuv* lqfhqwlyh frpsdwlelolw| frqvwudlqwv1 Wkh uhjxodwru| lqvwuxphqwv lqgxfh wuxwkixo frvw uhyhodwlrq lq Ed|hvldq htxl0 oleulxp1 Uhvwulfwlrq +7, lv wkh h{ srvw sduwlflsdwlrq frqvwudlqw1 Gxh wr wkh olplwhg oldelolw| dvvxpswlrq/ dq lqsxw surgxfhu pxvw uhfhlyh qrq0qhjdwlyh surwv lq doo vwdwhv ri qdwxuh wr lqgxfh klv sduwlflsdwlrq1

Wkh uhjxodwru pxvw jlyh d orz0frvw lqsxw surgxfhu dq lqirupdwlrqdo uhqw wkdw holplqdwhv wkh surgxfhu*v lqfhqwlyh wr ryhuvwdwh klv frvw1 Dovr iru wklv sureohp wkhuh lv d fulwlfdo ydoxh/ ^U/ deryh zklfk wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh lv qrq0lqfuhdvlqj lq wrwdo surgxfwlrq frvwv1 Wklv fulwlfdo ydoxh lv htxdo wr=

^U '  e

sRM +v

RM

 n S b n 

b2

n H s RM

 n b b

,

45

(15)

Qrwlfh wkdw ^U E RM19 Iru ^ ^u +uhodwlyho| orz fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq surgxfhuv* frvwv, wkh wudqvihu vfkhph lv vlplodu wr wkh PLV vfkhph/ zklfk lv vwdwhg lq wkh iroorzlqj sursrvlwlrq1

Sursrvlwlrq 4 Iru LLV dqg ^ ^U wkh rswlpdo wudqvihuv duh vxfk wkdw wkh|

uhlpexuvh wkh surgxfhuv* h{shfwhg frvwv dqg wkh| jlyh dq lqirupdwlrqdo uhqw wr hdfk orz0frvw surgxfhu=

|Ewc w2 ' w'UEwc w2 n Ew w [

hw:w

'UEhwc w2/ iru wc w2 5 iwc wj1 Surgxfhu 5 uhfhlyhv vlplodu wudqvihuv1

Wkhvh wudqvihuv gr qrw lpsohphqw wuxwk0whoolqj lq d xqltxh Ed|hvldq htxl0 oleulxp1 Iru hdfk surgxfhu zlwk orz frvw/ w/ wkh wudqvihu vfkhph pdnhv klp lqglhuhqw ehwzhhq wuxwk0whoolqj dqg frvw ryhuvwdwlqj/ luuhvshfwlyh ri wkh rwkhu surgxfhu*v phvvdjh vhqglqj vwudwhj|1 Zh fdq dyrlg edg htxloleuld dqg dssur{lpdwho| pdlqwdlq wkh rswlpdo h{shfwhg zhoiduh ohyho e| voljkwo|

fkdqjlqj wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph1 Wklv lv vwdwhg lq wkh iroorzlqj sursrvlwlrq1 Sursrvlwlrq 5 Ghqh {w ' ww1 Iru LLV dqg ^ ^U wkh uhjxodwru fdq vwd|

duelwudulo| forvh wr wkh rswlpdo zhoiduh ohyho dqg lqgxfh wuxwkixo uhyhodwlrq ri wkh surgxfhuv* frvwv dv d +lqwhulp, grplqdqw vwudwhjlhv Ed|hvldq htxloleulxp/

e| pdnlqj wkh iroorzlqj fkdqjhv wr wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph/ iru 0c B : f vpdoo/ zlwk 0 {w1 Lqfuhdvh |Ewc w/ |Ewc w/ |2Ewc w dqg |2Ewc w zlwk 01 +l, Li 'UE ' f/ fkrrvh 'UEwc w ' 2E{S0 nB dqg 'UEwc w ' 'UEwc w ' {S0 nB1 +ll, Li rqo| 'UEwc w ' / fkrrvh 'UEwc w ' 'UEwc w ' {S0 n B1

+lll, Li rqo| 'UEwc w ' f/ fkrrvh 'UEwc w ' 'UEwc w '  E{S0 n B1

+ly, Li 'UE ' / fkrrvh 'UEwc w ' 'UEwc w '  E{S0 n B dqg 'UEwc w '

 2E{S0 n B1

9Vlqfh tL lqfuhdvhv lq / lw vx!fhv wr fkhfn zkhwkhu olp

$4tL @ 47s sK+s

sK. ; 6s

sK, 46+4 sK,1 Wkdw lv/ 454^6s

sK+sK. ;, +7 . 8sK,` 31 Vlqfh wklv ixqfwlrq lqfuhdvhv lq sK/ dqg iru sK @ 4 wkh ixqfwlrq htxdov 3/ tL 46+4 sK, lv hvwdeolvkhg1 Qrwh wkdw t ? tL 46+4 sK,/ lv htxlydohqw wr t ? sO1

46

(16)

Iru orzhu ^ +kljk fruuhodwlrq, wkh uhjxodwru uhzdugv surgxfhuv e| sd|lqj wkhp lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv rqo| li wkh| erwk uhsruw orz frvwv/ exw qrw rwkhu0 zlvh1 Wklv jlyhv wkh surgxfhuv rswlpdo lqfhqwlyhv wr uhyhdo wkhlu frvwv1 Wklv lv vwdwhg lq wkh iroorzlqj sursrvlwlrq1

Sursrvlwlrq 6 Iru LLV dqg ^ ^U wkh rswlpdo wudqvihuv uhlpexuvh hdfk surgxfhu*v h{shfwhg frvw dqg jlyh dq lqirupdwlrqdo uhqw rqo| li erwk surgxfhuv uhsruw orz surgxfwlrq frvwv=

|Ewc w ' w'UEwc w n Ew wd'UEwc w n ^

Ru'UEwc wo

|Ewc w2 ' w'UEwc w2/ iru Ewc w2 9' Ewc w Surgxfhu 5 uhfhlyhv vlplodu wudqvihuv1

Wkhvh wudqvihuv gr qrw lpsohphqw wuxwk0whoolqj lq dq +lqwhulp, grplqdqw vwudwhj| Ed|hvldq htxloleulxp1 Pruhryhu/ grplqdqfh fdqqrw eh rewdlqhg e|

phdqv ri duelwudu| vpdoo fkdqjhv lq wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph1 Wklv lv vwdwhg lq wkh iroorzlqj sursrvlwlrq1

Sursrvlwlrq 7 Iru LLV dqg ^ ^U dq duelwudu| vpdoo fkdqjh lq wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph grhv qrw jlyh wuxwk0whoolqj dv d Ed|hvldq htxloleulxp lq +lqwhulp, grplqdqw vwudwhjlhv zkhqhyhu 'UEwc w : f1

Vlqfh d Ed|hvldq htxloleulxp fdqqrw eh rewdlqhg lq grplqdqw vwudwhjlhv/

wkh frvw phvvdjhv wkdw surgxfhuv vhqg wr wkh uhjxodwru zloo ghshqg rq wkhlu h{shfwdwlrqv derxw wkh rwkhu surgxfhu*v frvw phvvdjh vwudwhj|1 Wklv sureohp frxog eh ryhufrph e| xvlqj qrq0gluhfw uhyhdolqj phfkdqlvpv/ dv lq Prruh +4<<5,1

Sursrvlwlrqv 5 dqg 7 lpso| wkdw wkh srvvlelolw| ri lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh rswlpdo h{shfwhg zhoiduh ohyho e| grplqdqw vwudwhjlhv/ ghshqgv rq ^1 Zkhq0 hyhu surgxfhuv* frvwv duh rqo| voljkwo| fruuhodwhg/ lpsohphqwdwlrq lq grpl0 qdqw vwudwhjlhv lv srvvleoh1 Iru kljko| fruuhodwhg frvwv/ wklv lv qr orqjhu wkh fdvh1

Diwhu vxevwlwxwlqj wkh rswlpdo wudqvihuv lq wkh uhjxodwru*v rswlpl}dwlrq sureohp dqg revhuylqj wkdw wklv sureohp lv v|pphwulf lq suredelolwlhv 'UEwc w

47

(17)

dqg 'UEwc w/ zh rewdlq wkh iroorzlqj rswlpl}dwlrq sureohp=

t'4@ UEi'UE2wRMUEwc w n 'UEw n w^dUEwc w n UEwc wo n 'UE2wUEwc wj v1w1 f 'UEwn w2 / iru wc w2 5 iwc wj/

zkhuh

UEhw ' T E n bEhwn hw2 b S2

hdw hwc w ' hwo

hdw ' hwo Ew w

lv wkh yluwxdo zhoiduh dw frvwv Ehwchw2 xqghu LLV1 Gxh wr v|pphwu| UEwc w ' UEwc w/ zklfk pdnhv UE d ixqfwlrq ri wrwdo frvwv rqo|1 Jlyhq wkh rswlpdo wudqvihu vfkhph ri LLV/ lqfhqwlyh frqvwudlqwv gr qrw sxw dq| uhvwulfwlrq xsrq wkh suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq1 Qrwh wkdw xqghu PLV wkh suredelolw| vfkhph zdv uhtxluhg wr eh qrq0lqfuhdvlqj lq wrwdo frvwv1

Lw lv hdv| wr fkhfn wkdw wkh iroorzlqj sursrvlwlrq krogv1

Sursrvlwlrq 8 Iru LLV wkh rswlpdo suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq duh vxfk wkdw surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh zlwk fhuwdlqw| zkhqhyhu wkh yluwxdo ydoxh ri zhoiduh lv srvlwlyh=

'UEwn w2 '

/ li UEwn w2 f

f/ rwkhuzlvh / iru wc w2 5 iwc wj

Iru vpdoo ydoxhv ri ^ +l1h1 ^ ^U/ kljk fruuhodwlrq, prqrwrqlflw| ri UE euhdnv grzq1 Lq wkdw fdvh/ wkh rswlpdo 'UE lv qr orqjhu prqrwrqrxv lq wrwdo surgxfwlrq frvwv1 E| pdnlqj 'UEw n w vpdoohu wkdq 'UE2w wkh uhjxodwru vdyhv lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv1 Xqghu LLV wkh uhjxodwru fkrrvhv d suredelolw| ri surgxfwlrq vfkhph wkdw lv qrw ihdvleoh xqghu PLV1 Wkhuhiruh wkh fkrlfh iru LLV hqdeohv wkh uhjxodwru wr vdyh pruh uhqwv wkdq xqghu PLV1

Wkh rswlpdo wudqvihu dqg suredelolw| ri surgxfwlrq vfkhphv glhu iurp wkrvh rewdlqhg lq wkh vxevwlwxwdeoh surgxfwv fdvh vwxglhg e| Gdqd +4<<6,1 Dv zh qrwhg ehiruh/ lw lv qrw rswlpdo wr fkrrvh glvfulplqdwru| suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq zkhq lqsxwv duh shuihfw frpsohphqwv1 Ehfdxvh ri wklv/ wkh uhjxodwru kdv wr uho| pruh rq wkh wudqvihuv wr glvfulplqdwh ehwzhhq lqsxw surgxfhuv1 Kh grhv wklv hvshfldoo| zkhq frvw fruuhodwlrq ehfrphv kljk/ l1h1

48

(18)

^ ^U/ e| vkliwlqj doo lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv wr wkh +wc w, vwdwh ri qdwxuh/ zklfk lv qrw rswlpdo lq Gdqd +4<<6,1

Li wkh surgxfhuv zrxog kdyh xqolplwhg oldelolw| dqg frvwv duh srvlwlyho| fru0 uhodwhg/ wkh uvw0ehvw h{shfwhg zhoiduh fdq eh lpsohphqwhg/ vhh h1j1 Fuìphu dqg PfOhdq +4<;8,1 Wklv uhtxluhv d uhjxodwru| vfkhph zlwk odujh h{ srvw sxqlvkphqwv dqg uhzdugv iru orz ghjuhhv ri fruuhodwlrq1 Iru upv wkdw duh surwhfwhg e| olplwhg oldelolw| odzv wkhvh sxqlvkphqw duh qrw ihdvleoh iru wkh uhjxodwru1 Wkh ehvw kh fdq gr wkhq lv fkrrvh wkh vfkhphv ri sursrvlwlrqv 4/

6 dqg 81

7 Wkh Rswlpdo Rujdql}dwlrqdo Fkrlfh

Wkh sursrvlwlrqv lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq looxvwudwh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh rswlpdo prqrsrolvwlf dqg lqghshqghqw uhjxodwru| vfkhphv1 Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh vwxg| zklfk vfkhph |lhogv wkh kljkhu h{shfwhg vrfldo zhoiduh1 Wkh wkhruhp*v surri lv uhohjdwhg wr wkh Dsshqgl{1

Iru kljk ydoxhv ri ^ +orz fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv, wkh rswlpdo suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq xqghu erwk PLV dqg LLV duh qrq0lqfuhdvlqj lq wkh surgxfhuv*

wrwdo frvw1 Wklv phdqv wkdw wkhuh duh wudqvihu vfkhphv wkdw lpsohphqw wkh rswlpdo lqghshqghqw vxsso| suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq/ 'UE xqghu PLV1 Lw lv hdv| wr vkrz wkdw wkh h{shfwhg wudqvihu sd|phqw wkdw lpsohphqwv 'UE xqghu PLV/ .XiA EXj/ lv vpdoohu wkdq wkh h{shfwhg wrwdo wudqvihuv xqghu LLV/

.wi|Ewn|2Ewj1 Lq vwdwh Ewc w wkh uhjxodwru qhhgv wr jlyh erwk lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxssolhuv dq lqfhqwlyh qrw wr ryhuvwdwh wkhlu frvwv1 D prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxssolhu zlwk frvwv Ewc w pxvw hhfwlyho| rqo| eh lqgxfhg qrw wr vd| wkdw kh kdv lqwhuphgldwh frvw w n w1 Ehfdxvh wkh prqrsrolvw frruglqdwhv klv frvw phvvdjhv/ kh lqwhuqdol}hv wkh h{whuqdolw| wkdw d frvw ryhuvwdwhphqw fdxvhv rq wkh rwkhu lqsxw surgxfhu1 Wklv hhfw lv fdoohg wkh lqirupdwlrqdo h{whuqdolw|

hhfw1

Iru orz ydoxhv ri ^ +kljk fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv, wkh lqfhqwlyh frqvwudlqwv iru wkh suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq xqghu PLV ehfrph elqglqj1 Ehfdxvh wkh rswlpdo surgxfwlrq suredelolwlhv xqghu LLV gr qrw reh| wkhvh prqrwrqlflw|

frqvwudlqwv/ wkh| duh qrw ihdvleoh iru wkh PLV sureohp1 Wkh qrq0prqrwrqrxv suredelolw| vfkhph vdyhv lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv1 E| frqglwlrqlqj hdfk lqgh0

49

(19)

shqghqw vxssolhuv* lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv rq erwk vxssolhuv* frvw phvvdjh/ wkh uhjxodwru fdq h{wudfw vrph ri wkhlu uhqwv1 Wklv lv fdoohg wkh |dugvwlfn frpsh0 wlwlrq hhfw1 Gxh wr wklv hhfw/ LLV |lhogv kljkhu h{shfwhg zhoiduh wkdq PLV iru orz ^1

Wkh iroorzlqj wkhruhp vkrzv krz wkh rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrqdo vwuxfwxuh ghshqgv rq ^1 Ghqh wkh fulwlfdo ydoxhv=

7^ '  e

sRMd u

RMEe b n 

b2 n e s

RME n 2b

b o/ 7^2 ' RME RM RMEn2bb n / dqg

7 ' RM

RM 2^dE n b2w n b2^

RMEw wo 2^

RM 2^dE n bEw n w n bRu

2^Ew wo1 Wkhruhp 4 Wkh uhjxodwru fkrrvhv=

+l, PLV/ iru ^ 4@ i7^c 7^2j/

+ll, PLV rqo| li T 7/ iru 7^ ^ 7^2/ +lll, LLV rqo| li T 7/ iru 7^2 ^ 7^/ +ly, LLV/ iru ^ 4?i7^c 7^2j1

Iljxuh 4 looxvwudwhv uhjlrqv +l, xqwlo +ly, iru b ' 1 Dorqj wkh krul}rqwdo d{lv zh ghslfw RM/ zkloh suredelolw| ^ lv dorqj wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv1 Wkh grwwhg olqh uhsuhvhqwv fulwlfdo ydoxh ^/ dqg wkh wklq olqh vwdqgv iru fulwlfdo ydoxh ^21

Iljxuh 4= uhjlrqv +l,0+ly,

4:

(20)

Wkh wkhruhp frqupv wkdw wkh uhjxodwru suhihuv LLV iru kljk fruuhodwlrq/

zkloh kh suhihuv PLV iru orz fruuhodwlrq1 Wklv lv lqwxlwlyh jlyhq wkh suhvhqfh ri wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq dqg lqirupdwlrqdo h{whuqdolw| hhfw1

Dq dowhuqdwlyh lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh wkhruhp lv wkh iroorzlqj1 Iru elj hqrxjk ^ wkh uhjxodwru*v fkrlfh ri wkh lqgxvwu|*v rujdql}dwlrq ghshqgv rq wkh upv* oldelolw| vwuxfwxuh1 Li upv kdyh xqolplwhg oldelolw|/ wkh uhjxodwru fdq sxqlvk lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxssolhuv vhyhuho| iru xqolnho| dqg xqidyrudeoh frvw frpelqdwlrqv/ dqg wkhuhe| h{wudfw doo lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv1 Olplwhg oldelolw|

sxwv d elqglqj xsshu erxqg wr wkh lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxssolhuv* sxqlvkphqwv zklfk pdnhv wkh uhjxodwru suhihu prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|1 Wklv phdqv wkdw erwk wkh frvw fruuhodwlrq dqg wkh surgxfhuv* oldelolw| vwuxfwxuh lq xhqfh wkh rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrqdo vwuxfwxuh ri frpsohphqwdu| lqsxw vxsso|1

8 Frqfoxvlrq

Lq wklv sdshu zh vkrzhg wkdw wkh rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrqdo vwuxfwxuh ri uhj0 xodwlqj frpsohphqwdu| lqsxw vxsso| wudghv r wzr hhfwv1 Wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw rffxuv zkhq frvwv duh fruuhodwhg1 D pxowl0surgxfw prqrs0 rolvw fdq frruglqdwh wkh uhsruwv wkdw kh vhqgv wr wkh uhjxodwru1 Lqghshqghqw upv/ krzhyhu/ vhqg uhsruwv lqghshqghqwo|1 Wkh uhjxodwru fdq h{wudfw vrph ri wkh lqghshqghqw upv* uhqwv e| frpsdulqj wkh upv* uhsruwv dqg uhzdug0 lqj ru sxqlvklqj upv rq wkh edvlv ri wklv frpsdulvrq1 Wkh vhfrqg hhfw lv wkh lqirupdwlrqdo h{whuqdolw| hhfw/ dqg lv prvw srzhuixo zkhq frvwv duh lqghshqghqwo| glvwulexwhg1 Ehfdxvh lqghshqghqw upv vhqg uhsruwv lqghshq0 ghqwo|/ wkh| gr qrw lqwhuqdol}h wkh h{whuqdolw| wkdw wkhlu uhsruwv kdv rq wkh rwkhu up*v sd|r1 Wkh uhjxodwru pxvw wkhuhiruh jlyh erwk upv dq lqfhqwlyh wr qrw ryhuvwdwh wkhlu frvwv1 D prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxssolhu lqwhuqdol}hv wklv h{whuqdolw|/ dqg wklv vdyhv uhqwv iru wkh uhjxodwru1 Wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq lv vwurqjhvw zkhq frvwv duh kljko| fruuhodwhg1 Zkhq frvwv duh lqghshqghqw/

wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwlwlrq hhfw glvdsshduv1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw frpsohphq0 wdu| dfwlylwlhv zlwk kljko| fruuhodwhg frvwv duh ehvw uhjxodwhg e| fuhdwlqj wzr vhsdudwh upv hdfk shuiruplqj rqh dfwlylw| rqo|1 Lq frqwudvw/ frpsohphqwdu|

dfwlylwlhv zlwk orz frvw fruuhodwlrq duh ehvw uhjxodwhg e| kdylqj rqh up wkdw shuirupv erwk dfwlylwlhv1

4;

(21)

Qrw rqo| frvw fruuhodwlrq/ exw dovr wkh oldelolw| vwuxfwxuh ri lqsxw surgxf0 huv pdwwhuv/ zkhq frvwv kdyh d vpdoo/ qrq0qhjdwlyh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw1 Iru vpdoo/ qrq0qhjdwlyh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv/ d vrfldo zhoiduh pd{lpl}lqj uhjx0 odwru suhihuv prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso| zkhq wkh surgxfhuv duh surwhfwhg e|

olplwhg oldelolw|/ zkloh kh suhihuv lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| xqghu xqolplwhg oldelolw|1 Xqghu xqolplwhg oldelolw| dqg srvlwlyh frvw fruuhodwlrq/ wkh uhjxodwru h{wudfwv doo wkh lqghshqghqw vxssolhuv* uhqwv e| sxqlvklqj dq lqsxw vxssolhu vhyhuho| lq xqidyrudeoh dqg xqolnho| vwdwhv ri qdwxuh dqg uhzduglqj wkhp lq rwkhu vwdwhv1 Olplwhg oldelolw| pdnhv wkhvh sxqlvkphqwv lqihdvleoh/ vlqfh sur0 gxfhuv pxvw uhfhlyh qrq0qhjdwlyh surwv lq doo vwdwhv ri qdwxuh1 Wkhuhiruh/ lq lqgxvwulhv frqvlvwlqj ri vxssolhuv zlwk olplwhg oldelolw| wkh |dugvwlfn frpshwl0 wlrq hhfw lv zhdnhu wkdq lq lqgxvwulhv zlwk xqolplwhgo| oldeoh upv1 Kljkhu fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv pdnh lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| pruh ghvludeoh iru wkh zhoiduh rswlpl}lqj uhjxodwru xqghu erwk olplwhg dqg xqolplwhg oldelolw|1

Wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhphv wkdw lpsohphqw wkh rswlpdo h{shfwhg zhoiduh ohyho lq rxu prgho duh txlwh glhuhqw frpsduhg wr wkdw lq Gdqd +4<<6,/ zkhuh jrrgv duh glylvleoh vxevwlwxwhv1

Lq rxu prgho wkh fkrlfh ehwzhhq prqrsrolvwlf dqg lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxs0 so| lv pdgh ehiruh frvwv duh uhsruwhg/ dqg duh wkhuhiruh/ lq d vhqvh/ h{rjhqrxv1 Hqgrjhql}lqj wkh rujdql}dwlrqdo fkrlfh ri wkh uhjxodwru e| surfxulqj wkh frq0 wuro ryhu lqsxw surgxfwlrq ehwzhhq wzr elgghuv frxog jlyh lqwhuhvwlqj qhz lqvljkwv lq wkh fxuuhqw sureohp1

Lw frxog dovr eh zruwkzkloh wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh lpsolfdwlrqv ri wklv sdshu*v lqvljkwv iru wkh sureohp ri dffhvv sulflqj1 Lq wkh sureohp ri dffhvv sulflqj d prqrsrolvwlf up vxssolhv erwk d erwwohqhfn idflolw| dqg d qdo jrrg wkdw pdnhv xvh ri wklv idflolw|1 Wkhuh duh dovr rwkhu qdo jrrg vxssolhuv wkdw qhhg wkh erwwohqhfn idflolw|1 Lq frpsdulvrq zlwk wklv sdshu/ wkh prqrsrolvwlf up*v lqfhqwlyhv wr uhsruw frvwv wuxwkixoo| duh glvwruwhg/ ehfdxvh klv frvw phvvdjhv dhfw frpshwlwlrq lq wkh qdo jrrgv pdunhw1 Li wkh uhjxodwru vhsdudwhv wkh idflolw| surylghu iurp wkh qdo jrrg surgxfhu/ wklv glvwruwlrq ydqlvkhv1 Wklv zrxog vdyh lqirupdwlrqdo uhqwv1 Krzhyhu/ vhsdudwlrq wuljjhuv wkh lqirupd0 wlrqdo h{whuqdolw| hhfw/ zklfk frvwv wkh uhjxodwru uhqwv1 Zkhwkhu ru qrw vhsdudwlrq ri wkh prqrsrolvw lv vrfldoo| ghvludeoh/ qhhgv wr eh h{soruhg1

4<

(22)

9 Dsshqgl{

Wkh uvw vxevhfwlrq ri wklv Dsshqgl{ frqwdlqv wkh surri wr ohppdv 4/ 5 dqg 6/ zklfk frqfhuq rswlpdo prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso| vfkhphv1 Wkh vhfrqg vxevhfwlrq jlyhv wkh surri wr sursrvlwlrqv 4/ 6 dqg 8/ dqg wr 5 dqg 7/ zklfk frqfhuqv wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhphv xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso|1 Wkh odvw vxevhfwlrq ri wklv Dsshqgl{ suryhv wkhruhp 4/ zklfk frqfhuqv wkh rswlpdo rujdql}dwlrq ri lqsxw vxsso|1

914 PLV= Surri ri Ohppdv 4/ 5 dqg 6

Qrwh wkdw wkh zhoiduh rswlpl}dwlrq sureohp xqghu PLV lv d olqhdu surjudp0 plqj sureohp1 Vxssrvh wkdw wkh 2w0prqrsrolvw*v sduwlflsdwlrq frqvwudlqw lv elqglqj zlwk vodfn yduldeoh r ' b/ zkhuh b lv wkh vrfldo frvw ri sxeolf ixqgv1 Wklv jlyhv wudqvihu A E2w lq ohppd 41 Wdnh wkh lqfhqwlyh frpsdwlelolw| frq0 vwudlqw ri d Ew n w0prqrsrolvw ryhuvwdwlqj klv frvw elqglqj/ dqg vhw lwv vodfn yduldeoh rMƒ6 ' bE RM1 Wklv uhvxowv lq wudqvihu AEw n w1 Wdnh wkh lq0 fhqwlyh frpsdwlelolw| frqvwudlqw iru d 2w0prqrsrolvw fodlplqj wr eh Ew n w elqglqj zlwk vodfn yduldeoh r6ƒu ' bRu1 Wklv ghwhuplqhv wudqvihu A E2w ri ohppd 41 Ilqdoo| zh vxssrvh wkdw qhlwkhu wkh lqfhqwlyh frqvwudlqwv iru xq0 ghuvwdwlqj frvwv duh qhyhu elqglqj/ qru wkh sduwlflsdwlrq frqvwudlqwv iru orz dqg plggoh wrwdo frvwv duh elqglqj1 Zh fdq zulwh grzq wkh iroorzlqj uhgxfhg gxdo sureohp iru wkh uhpdlqlqj vodfn yduldeohv ru'c r6'c rM' ri wkh suredelolw|

ihdvlelolw| frqvwudlqwv/ 'E / dqg wkh lqfhqwlyh frpsdwlelolw| frqvwudlqw ri d 2w0frvw prqrsrolvw fodlplqj wr kdyh wrwdo frvwv 2w/ rMƒu=

4?rDf

ru'n r6' n rM'

v1w1

;A

? A=

ru' RudT E n b2wo

r6' Ew wrMƒu 2^dT E n bEw n w bR^uEw wo rM' n Ew wrMƒu RMdT E n b2w b3RRMMEw wo iru ru'c r6'c rM'c rMƒu f1

53

(23)

Iru ^ ^ zh vhw rMƒu ' f/ zklfk jlyhv gxdo vroxwlrq=

ru' ' 4@ ifc RuE2wj r6' ' 4@ ifc 2^Ew n wj rM' ' 4@ ifc RME2wj

Wkhq wkh sulpdo vroxwlrq ri ohppdv 4 dqg 5 lv ihdvleoh/ vlqfh lw vdwlvhv wkh frpsohphqwdu| vodfnqhvv frqglwlrqv1 Dqg lw lpsohphqwv wkh rswlpdo gxdo ydoxh ru'n r6' n rM'1 Iurp wkh gxdolw| wkhruhp zh fdq frqfoxgh wkdw wklv vfkhph lv rswlpdo1

Iru ^ ^ zh wdnh rMƒu : f1 Wklv lpsolhv iurp wkh frpsohphqwdu|

vodfnqhvv frqglwlrqv wkdw 'E2w ' 'Ew n w1 Wkhq wkh iroorzlqj vodfn yduldeohv vroyh wkh uhgxfhg gxdo sureohp=

ru' ' 4@ ifc RuE2wj

r6' n rM' ' 4@ ifc 2^Ew n w n RME2wj

Wkhq wkh vfkhph ri ohppdv 4 dqg 6 lv ihdvleoh/ vlqfh lw vdwlvhv wkh frpsoh0 phqwdu| vodfnqhvv frqglwlrqv1 Dqg lw lpsohphqwv ru'n r6' n rM'1 Lw iroorzv iurp wkh gxdolw| wkhruhp wkdw wklv vfkhph lv rswlpdo1

Wklv frpsohwhv wkh surri ri ohppdv 4/ 5 dqg 61

915 LLV= Surriv

91514 Rswlpdo Vfkhphv= Surri ri Sursrvlwlrqv 4/ 6 dqg 8

Xqghu LLV/ wkh zhoiduh rswlpl}dwlrq sureohp lv d olqhdu surjudpplqj sure0 ohp1 Revhuyh wkdw wkh vfkhphv xqghu sursrvlwlrqv 8 dqg sursrvlwlrq 4 ru 6 jlyh ihdvleoh yduldeohv wr wklv sureohp1 Pdnh upv* lqfhqwlyh frpsdwlelolw|

frqvwudlqw iru ryhuvwdwlqj frvwv elqglqj/ dqg vhw wkh vodfn yduldeoh rMƒu ' b1 Dovr pdnh wkh kljk0frvw upv* sduwlflsdwlrq frqvwudlqw elqglqj e| fkrrvlqj vodfn yduldeohv rMu ' bERun ^ dqg rMM ' bE^ n RM/ dqg vlplodu vodfn ydul0 deohv iru up 51 Vhw doo uhpdlqlqj vodfn yduldeohv iru lqfhqwlyh frpsdwlelolw|

dqg sduwlflsdwlrq frqvwudlqwv htxdo wr 31 Fkrrvh wkh vodfn yduldeohv iru wkh

54

(24)

ihdvlelolw| ri suredelolw| ri surgxfwlrq dv iroorzv=

ruu' ' 4@ ifc RudT E n b2woj rMu' ' ruM' ' 4@

fc ^dT E n bEw n w bRu

^ Ew wo

rMM' ' 4@

fc RMdT E n b2w b2^

RMEw wo

Frqvhtxhqwo|/ iru ^ ^U wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhph iurp sursrvlwlrqv 4 dqg 8 vdwlvhv wkh frpsohphqwdu| vodfnqhvv frqglwlrq dqg htxdol}hv wkh sulpdo dqg gxdo ydoxhv1 Wkhuhiruh wklv vfkhph lv rswlpdo1 Iru ^ ^U wkh uhjxodwru|

vfkhph iurp sursrvlwlrqv 6 dqg 8 vdwlvhv wkh frpsohphqwdu| vodfnqhvv frq0 glwlrq dqg lw htxdol}hv gxdo dqg sulpdo ydoxhv1 Lw iroorzv iurp wkh gxdolw|

wkhruhp wkdw wkh uhjxodwru| vfkhphv duh rswlpdo1 Wklv frpsohwhv wkh surri wr sursrvlwlrqv 4/ 6 dqg 81

91515 Grplqdqw Vwudwhj| Htxloleulxp= Surriv ri Sursrvlwlrqv 5 dqg 7

Vxssrvh wkdw surgxfhu 5 fkrrvhv pl{hg vwudwhj| R2Ew2 ' hEhw ' wmw2 lq wkh phvvdjh vhqglqj vwdjh1 Jlyhq wklv vwudwhj|/ surgxfhu 4 dvvljqv wkh iroorzlqj suredelolw| wr d orz frvw phvvdjh=

hEhw2 ' wmwc R2E ' hEw2 ' wmwR2Ew n hEw2 ' wmwR2Ew Wkh h{shfwhg surw iru surgxfhu 4 iurp vwdwlqj orz frvwv lv

.w2iZEREw ' c R2Ew2mwj ' hEhw2 ' wmwc R2

|Ewc w w'UEwc w n n

 hEhw2 ' wmwc R2 |Ewc w w'UEwc w c dqg kh rewdlqv wkh iroorzlqj iurp vwdwlqj kljk frvwv=

.w2iZEREw ' fc R2Ew2mwj ' hEhw2 ' wmwc R2

|Ewc w w'UEwc w n n

 hEhw2 ' wmwc R2 |Ewc w w'UEwc w 55

(25)

Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh prglhg uhjxodwru| wudqvihu vfkhph iurp sursrvlwlrq 5 lqwr wkh h{shfwhg surw ixqfwlrqv suryhv wklv sursrvlwlrq lpphgldwho|1

Wkh surri wr sursrvlwlrq 7 lv jlyhq lq wkh uhpdlqghu ri wklv vxevhfwlrq1 D Ed|hvldq htxloleulxp lq lqwhulp grplqdqw vwudwhjlhv fdqqrw eh rewdlqhg iru duelwudu| vpdoo fkdqjhv wr sursrvlwlrq 6*v wudqvihu vfkhph dqg wkh rswlpdo suredelolwlhv ri surgxfwlrq1 Li rqh surgxfhu dozd|v vwdwhv kljk frvwv/ l1h1 REw ' f iru doo w 5 iwc wj/ wkh rwkhu surgxfhu kdv d vwulfw suhihuhqfh wr ryhuvwdwh klv frvw/ zkhqhyhu 'UEwc w : f1 Wklv suryhv sursrvlwlrq 71

916 PLV yv LLV= Surri ri Wkhruhp 4

Lq wklv vxevhfwlrq zh frpsduh wkh h{shfwhg rswlpdo zhoiduh ohyho xqghu PLV zlwk wkdw xqghu LLV1 Ghqh {w ' w w dqg {` ' .wi`UEwj .Xi`EXj1

Zh uvw vkrz krz wkh fulwlfdo ydoxhv duh rughuhg1 Lw lv reylrxv wkdw

^ 7^21 Ixuwkhupruh/ ^ 7^/ ehfdxvh wklv jlyhv=

sRM

ERM n bE n RMt

eb2n RMEeb n  s

RMEeb2n b n Eb n RM

ebERM n bE n RM fc

zklfk lv htxlydohqw wr=

ERM n bE n RM2Eeb2 n RMEeb n  RMEeb2 n b n Eb n RM2c dqg wklv lv htxlydohqw wr ebE RM2Eb n RM f/ zklfk reylrxvo| krogv dozd|v1

Wkh lqhtxdolw| 7^2 ^U dozd|v krogv/ ehfdxvh lw jlyhv=

ERM n bE n 2RMt

b2ERMn H n RMESb n  s

RMEb2E. n 2RM n b n EDb n RMc zklfk lv htxlydohqw wr HbE RM2Eb n RM2 f/ zklfk reylrxvo| krogv

dozd|v1

Iru odwhu xvh zh suryh wkh iroorzlqj ohppd1 Ohppd 7 7^ 7^2 / RM 2^

56

(26)

Surri1 Wdnh RM ' ebnBb / zlwk f B e n b1 Wkhq=

7^ 7^2 ' E n eb n BE n 2bt

BEebnB

ebn BE n Sb n B

eE n eb n BE n 2b

Wkhuhiruh/ 7^ 7^2 lv htxlydohqw wr=

BE n eb n BE n 2b2Eeb n B B2E n Sb n B2Eeb n c zklfk jlyhv=

eBbE BE n Ee BbE n B n eb f

Wklv krogv zkhqhyhu B 1 Ilqdoo|/ qrwh wkdw iru B '  zh rewdlq 7^ ' 7^2 '

2EebnBb ' 2RM/ zklfk suryhv wkh ohppd1

Qrwh wkdw iru 'E2w ' 'Ew n w ' fc 'E2w ' c dqg 'UE2w '

c 'UEw n w ' fc 'UE2w '  zh kdyh=

{` ' RM

T E n b2w b2^

RM{w

2^

T E n bEw n w bRu 2^{w

+8, Iru ^ ^ dqg ^ ^U wkh h{shfwhg zhoiduh frpsdulvrq lv vwudljkw0 iruzdug/ uhvxowlqj lq d suhihuhqfh iru lqghshqghqw dqg prqrsrolvwlf lqsxw vxsso|/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Iru ^ ^ ^U zh glvwlqjxlvk irxu fdvhv/ wkdw duh dqdo|}hg lq wkh iroorzlqj irxu fdvhv1

+l, Iru 4@ i7^c 7^2j ^ ^U zh kdyh wkh iroorzlqj sdudphwhu rughulqj=

E n bEw n w n bRu

2^{w E n b2w n b2^

RM{w +9,

E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w E n b2w n b RM RM {w Wkh zhoiduh frpsdulvrq lv vwudljkwiruzdug/ h{fhsw iru wkh fdvh lq zklfk=

E n b2w n b2^

RM{w T E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w +:,

57

(27)

Wkhq {` lv dv lq +8,1 Wklv phdqv wkdw iru RM : 2^/ {` f / T 7 / T E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w n n RM

RM 2^

dE n b2w n b RM

RM {wo dE n bEw n w n bRu

^ {wo

zklfk krogv jlyhq +9, dqg +:,1 Iru RM ' 2^/ {` f lv d gluhfw frqvhtxhqfh ri +9,1 Ilqdoo|/ iru RM 2^/ {` f / T : 7 /

T : E n b2w n b2^

RM{w n n 2^

RM 2^

dE n b2w n b2^

RM{wo dE n bEw n w n bRu 2^{wo

zklfk krogv jlyhq +9, dqg +:,1

+ll, Gxh wr wkh ohppd 7/ 7^ ^ 7^2 jlyhv RM : 2^/ dqg=

E n bEw n w n bRu

2^{w E n b2w n b2^

RM{w +;,

E n b2w n b RM

RM {w E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w Wkh zhoiduh frpsdulvrq lv vwudljkwiruzdug/ h{fhsw iru=

E n b2w n b2^

RM{w T E n b2w n b RM RM {w

Wkhq {` lv dv lq +8,/ dqg {` : f zkhqhyhu T : 71 Lw vx!fhv wr qrwh wkdw/ gxh wr +;,/

E n b2w n b2^

RM{w 7 E n b2w n b RM RM {wc vlqfh uhzulwlqj jlyhv=

7 ' E n b2w n b2^

RM{w n

2^

RM 2^

dE n bEw n w n bRu

2^{wo dE n b2w n b2^

RM{wo

c dqg

7 ' E n b2w n b2^

RM{w n

2^

RM 2^

dE n bEw n w n bRu

^ {wo dE n b2w n b RM RM {wo

58

(28)

+lll, Iurp ohppd 7/ 7^2 ^ 7^ lpsolhv wkdw RM 2^/ dqg=

E n b2w n b2^

RM{w E n bEw n w n bRu

2^{w +<,

E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w E n b2w n b RM RM {w Iru wklv fdvh wkh zhoiduh lv vwudljkwiruzdug h{fhsw iru=

E n bEw n w n bRu

2^{w T E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w

Wkhq {` lv dv lq +8,/ dqg {` : f zkhqhyhu T 71 Djdlq lw vx!fhv wr qrwh wkdw/ gxh wr +<,/

E n bEw n w n bRu

2^{w 7 E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {wc vlqfh uhzulwlqj jlyhv=

7 ' E n bEw n w n bRu 2^{w n RM

RM 2^

dE n bEw n w n bRu

2^{wo dE n b2w n b2^

RM{wo

c dqg

7 ' E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w n RM

RM 2^

dE n bEw n w n bRu

^ {wo dE n b2w n b RM RM {wo

+ly, Ilqdoo|/ iru ^ ^ 4?i7^c 7^2j wkh sdudphwhuv duh rughuhg dv iroorzv=

E n b2w n b2^

RM{w E n bEw n w n bRu

2^{w +43,

E n b2w n b RM

RM {w E n bEw n w n bRu

^ {w Wkh zhoiduh lv qrw vwudljkwiruzdug iru wkh fdvh lq zklfk=

E n bEw n w n bRu

2^{w T E n b2w n b RM

RM {w +44,

59

(29)

Wklv phdqv wkdw iru RM : 2^/ {` : f lv htxlydohqw wr=

T : E n bEw n w n bRu 2^{w n n RM

RM 2^

dE n b2w n b2^

RM{wo dE n bEw n w n bRu 2^{wo

zklfk krogv jlyhq +43, dqg +44,1 Iru RM ' 2^/ {` : f lv d gluhfw frqvh0 txhqfh ri +43,1 Dqg/ qdoo|/ iru RM 2^/ {` : f lv htxlydohqw wr=

T E n b2w n b RM RM {w n n 2^

RM 2^

dE n b2w n b RM

RM {wo dE n bEw n w n bRu

^ {wo

Wklv frpsohwhv wkh surri ri wkhruhp 41

Uhihuhqfhv

Dxulro/ H1 dqg Odiirqw/ M0M1 +4<<5, Uhjxodwlrq e| Gxrsro|/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Pdqdjhphqw Vwudwhj| 4 +5,/ 83:066

Edurq/ G1S1 dqg Ehvdqnr/ G1 +4<<5, Lqirupdwlrq/ Frqwuro dqg Rujdql0 }dwlrqdo Vwuxfwxuh/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Pdqdjhphqw Vwudwhj| 4 +5,/

56:0:8

Edurq/ G1S1 dqg P|huvrq/ U1E1 +4<;5, Uhjxodwlqj d Prqrsrolvw zlwk Xqnqrzq Frvwv/ Hfrqrphwulfd 83 +7,/ <44063

Fuìphu/ M1 dqg PfOhdq/ U1S1 +4<;8, Rswlpdo Vhoolqj Vwudwhjlhv xqghu Xqfhuwdlqw| iru d Glvfulplqdwlqj Prqrsrolvw zkhq Ghpdqgv duh Lqwhughshq0 ghqw/ Hfrqrphwulfd 86 +5,/ 678094

Gdqd Mu/ M1G1 +4<<6, Wkh Rujdql}dwlrq dqg Vfrsh ri Djhqwv= Uhjxodwlqj Pxowlsurgxfw Lqgxvwulhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Wkhru| 8</ 5;;0643

Gdohq/ G1P1 +4<<;, \dugvwlfn Frpshwlwlrq dqg Lqyhvwphqw Lqfhqwlyhv/

Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Pdqdjhphqw Vwudwhj| : +4,/ 438059 5:

(30)

Ghpvnl/ M1V1 dqg Vdsslqjwrq/ G1 +4<;7, Rswlpdo Lqfhqwlyh Frqwudfwv zlwk Pxowlsoh Djhqwv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Wkhru| 66/ 4850:4

Jloehuw/ U1M1 dqg Ulrugdq/ P1K1 +4<<8, Uhjxodwlqj Frpsohphqwdu|

Surgxfwv= D Frpsdudwlyh Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Dqdo|vlv/ Udqg Mrxuqdo ri Hfr0 qrplfv 59 +5,/ 576089

Lrvvd/ H1 +4<<<, Lqirupdwlyh H{whuqdolwlhv dqg Sulflqj lq Uhjxodwhg Pxo0 wlsurgxfw Lqgxvwulhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqgxvwuldo Hfrqrplfv 7: +5,/ 4<8054<

Mhrq/ G0K1 +4<<;, Frooxvlrq/ Fruuhodwlrq dqg Olplwhg Oldelolw|/ plphr JUHPDT/ Xqlyhuvlwì gh Wrxorxvh 4

Odiirqw/ M0M1 dqg Pduwlpruw/ G1 +4<<:, Phfkdqlvp Ghvljq zlwk Fro0 oxvlrq dqg Fruuhodwlrq/ plphr JUHPDT/ Xqlyhuvlwì gh Wrxorxvh 4 +iruwk0 frpplqj Hfrqrphwulfd 4<<<,

Prruh/ M1 +4<<5, Lpsohphqwdwlrq/ Frqwudfwv/ dqg Uhqhjrwldwlrq lq Hqyl0 urqphqwv zlwk Frpsohwh Lqirupdwlrq/ Dgydqfhv lq Hfrqrplf Wkhru|/ Vl{wk Zruog Frqjuhvv yro1 L hg1 M0M1 Odrqw/ Hfrqrphwulf Vrflhw| Prqrjudskv/

qr1 53/ Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4;505;5

P|huvrq/ U1E1 +4<;4, Rswlpdo Dxfwlrq Ghvljq/ Pdwkhpdwlfv ri Rshud0 wlrqv Uhvhdufk 9 +4,/ 8;0:6

P|huvrq/ U1E1 +4<;5,Rswlpdo Frruglqdwlrq Phfkdqlvpv lq Jhqhudol}hg Sulqflsdo0Djhqw Sureohpv/ Mrxuqdo ri Pdwkhpdwlfdo Hfrqrplfv 43/ 9:0;4 Qdohexii/ E1M1 dqg Vwljolw}/ M1H1 +4<;6, Lqirupdwlrq/ Frpshwlwlrq/

dqg Pdunhwv/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz Sdshuv dqg Surfhhglqjv :6 +5,/

5:;0;6

Vdsslqjwrq/ G1 +4<;6, Olplwhg Oldelolw| Frqwudfwv ehwzhhq Sulqflsdo dqg Djhqw/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Wkhru| 5</ 4054

5;

(31)

Vhyhulqry/ V1 +4<<:, Rswlpdo Vwuxfwxuh ri Djhqf| Zlwk Surgxfw Frp0 sohphqwdu| dqg Vxevwlwxwdelolw|/ plphr Vwdqirug Xqlyhuvlw|

Vkohlihu/ D1 +4<;8, D Wkhru| ri \dugvwlfn Frpshwlwlrq/ Udqg Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 49 +6,/ 64<05:

5<

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

7KH G\QDPLF FRQGLWLRQDO FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ JROG DQG FUXGH RLO IRU WKH SHULRG XQGHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ LVUHSRUWHGLQ )LJ:HFDQREVHUYHWKDWWKHFRUUHODWLRQ LVWLPH

$SDUW IURP WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ ODWHUDO FRQGXFWLYLW\ DQG FRQWDFW UHVLVWLYLW\ WKH REVHUYHG )) 5VHULHV GLVSDULWLHV IRU WKH GLIIHUHQW5 VKHHW

7KH GHIHFW UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH %2/,' LV NQRZQ WR IHDWXUHDWOHDVWWKUHHGLIIHUHQWVWDWHVVHH)LJ&gt;@WKH UHFRPELQDWLRQ LQDFWLYH µDQQHDOHG¶ VWDWH$ ZKLFK LV LQVWDEOH XQGHU LOOXPLQDWLRQ

,Q WKH ILUVW VHFWLRQZHKDYH GLVFXVVHG TXHVWLRQVRIVRFLDO FKDQJH IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYHRI VRFLRGHPRJUDSKLF FKDQJHV HVSHFLDOO\ GHFOLQLQJ IHUWLOLW\ DQG LQFUHDVLQJ ORQJHYLW\ LQ

)LJXUH D LV WKH )(6(0 LPDJH WLWDQLXP IRLO EHIRUH DQRGL]DWLRQ $V VHHQ XQGHU KLJK PDJQLI FDWLRQ WKH VXUIDFH FRQVLVWV RI SRVVLEO\ D WKLQ OD\HU RI DLU IRUPHG R[LGH $IWHU DQRGL]DWLRQ

Zh vkrz wkdw fdslwdo dffxpxodwlrq lv frqvwlwxwhg ri vhyhudo skdvhv dqg wkdw wkh hfrqrplf wudqvlwlrq surfhvv ghshqgv rq wkh iudjlolw| ri wkh qdqfldo v|vwhp ghqhg dv wkh ghjuhh ri

Zkhq lw lv wkh uhjxodwhg up zklfk lv lq wkh Vrxwk/ surylghg wkdw wkh olqh fdsdflw| g lv vx!flhqwo| kljk/ wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| srolf| qhyhu lqyroyhv sxuh wrwdo vxusoxv

2QFH WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG YDULDEOH VHOHFWLRQ LV GRQH DOO WKH GDWD LV VDYHG LQ D 5227 ILOH FRQ WDLQLQJ RQH RU PRUH VR FDOOHG WUHHV ZLWK WKH YDULDEOHV VDYHG IRU D VSHFLILF SDUWLFOH