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Table 1 Short History of Key Actors, Resources, and Regulations, 1974–1992

1974 Molina-Rowland Hypothesis

1975 US government task force (IMOS) sees “considerable cause for concern”

1976 First report of the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) estimates 6 –7.5%

ozone depletion

1977 US Clean Air Act: Aerosol ban. First intergovernmental meeting in Washington 1978 Canada, Sweden, Norway impose an aerosol ban

1979 Second NAS report: estimate of 16.5% ozone depletion 1980 EC: 30% reduction in aerosols, production capacity cap 1982 Third NAS report: estimate of 5–9% ozone depletion 1984 Fourth NAS report: estimate of 2–4% ozone depletion 1985 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer

British Antarctic Survey: Ozone dramatically low over Antarctica 1986 “Ozone hole” accepted as real:

• Activation of most atmospheric scientists

• Germany in favor of international regulations

• Du Pont in favor of international regulations

1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer: US, Japan, Soviet Union and EC agree on CFC controls, immediate freeze and 50% cut- back by 1999 of 5 ozone-depleting substances

1988 Scientists working in WMO-UNEP framework:

• Ozone hole caused by CFCs

• Global ozone depletion detected Du Pont declares CFC phase-out 1990 London Amendments:

• Great Britain and EC in favor of tighter regulations

• Developing countries not opposed, depending on monetary aid 1991 • German CFC halon ban

• US Clean Air Act amended

1992 Copenhagen Amendments: Multilateral Fund established

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Figure 1 Variations in Predictions of Long-term, Global Ozone Depletion

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Source: based on Benedick (1991: 13) and Brodeur (1986)

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Costs

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72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 0

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

World USA EC

Year 1000 t

Source: Dudek et al. (1990)

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74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

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Year Number of articles

Source: German sources were Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Frankfurter Rund- schau, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Der Spiegel, Die Welt, Die Zeit (data base according to the Zeitschriftenindex). For the US, only the New York Times was chosen, because it is the only paper with an index for the whole pe- riod. I am grateful to Jürgen Aretz for his assistance on collecting the data.

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