Pastoralists’ Vulnerability to Multiple Risks

The preceding sections discussed the socio-political processes, external encroachments and government policies that have influenced the current situation of pastoral societies in Ethiopia. As it is indicated earlier pastoralists have become vulnerable to multiple risks. This section presents a summary of main risks that pastoral groups are facing in Ethiopia.

i. Recurrent Drought Risk. The pastoral areas are characterized by frequent drought with high livestock mortality followed by famine and a high death rate in human population.

Drought has increasingly become the major deterring factor of pastoral production. When a drought occurs it substantially increases livestock mortality; reduces livestock prices and raises the prices of food grains, a situation that aggravates the problems of pastoralists by shifting the terms of trade in favour of their purchase than their sales (Futterknecht, 1997 cited in Ahmed et al., 2002). Since 1972-1974, severe drought occurrences decimated a high percentage of livestock population with little time for recovery. The following table depicts the size of livestock lost to the past drought events.

Table 3.5 Size of Livestock Loss to Major Droughts

Affected livestock species (%) Drought

year

Regions

Cattle Sheep Goats Camels Equines

1972/1974 Afar 72 45 34 37 -

1983/1985 Oromiya/Borana 60 - - - -

1995/1997 Oromiya/Borana 78 - - 45 -

Afar up to 45 up to 15 up to 15 up to 25

Oromiya/Bale 50 35 20 15 20

Somali up to 80 60 40 35 -

1999/2000

SNNPR/South Omo 50 20 20 15 -

Source: Sandford and Yahannes (2000:6)

There is a general idea that drought is a normal state of affairs in drylands where pastoral groups inhabit and have developed adaptive strategies to escape drought effects. This has been in fact true for long time where pastoral groups’ capacity to withstand the effects of drought was high. As a result of mounting pressure from outside and increased frequency of drought, indigenous coping mechanisms have been insufficient to cope with impacts of prolonged and recurrent droughts. Moreover, the natural resource base of the pastoral economy has been undermined by a number of socio-political processes that have taken place in the past half a century. Consequently, drought risk has become a number one threat to livestock production and to pastoral livelihoods. This is mainly because of the loss of drought

99 “Failure of human beings to minimize vulnerability is blamed for famines since 1950; and much of the blame lies on failure of governments i.e. lack of good governance, lack of pro-poor policies, and lack of preparedness and sound EWS” (Degefa, 2005:346).

and dry seasons grazing areas and the restriction of herders’ movements that are the main drought-impact escaping mechanisms. Furthermore, the direct impacts of drought have been severe, and recovery has been extremely difficult for pastoral groups. Resources or assets both at household and community levels have been eroded overtime and community level fallbacks have been insufficient either to cope with crisis or recover quickly. For instance a recent study (Devereux, 2006:47-48) of pastoral livelihoods in the Somali Region of Ethiopia showed that:

i. The recent series of droughts in the Somali Region have caused widespread and seemingly irreversible losses of livestock in thousands of pastoralist households.

ii. Many of these households have been forced out of livestock-based livelihoods and into urban areas or internally displaced person (IDP) camps as a consequence, possibly permanently.

iii. Pessimism about the future viability of livestock-based livelihoods is high, especially among women and young people in parts of the Region.

Therefore, some pastoral households are forced out of their traditional livelihood system and/or to rely on external assistance as they are not able to cope with shocks through traditional mechanisms. Generally recurring and prolonged droughts have become the main risks to the pastoralists in Ethiopia.

ii. Risk of Political Marginalization (Persistence of State Neglect). In recent decades pastoral groups have gained some degree of “representation” at the national, regional and local levels. This seems a promising start, though it has yet to be fruitful. The potential to influence state policy and to assert pastoral needs and priorities has not yet reflected at the surface. This needs a significant and a true decentralization, local autonomy, fair and effective representation at all levels which in turn enhance trust and smooth state-society relationship.

Nevertheless, a recent study from the Somali Region came up with discouraging results after a decade of “political decentralization” processes. The findings “suggest that three-quarters of the people in the Somali Region feel disenfranchised (not fairly represented) and believe that the Government is not working effectively to serve their interests (ineffectively represented)”

(Devereux, 2006:117). The same study also explored critical views with respect to the government-local people relationship. In one of the discussions with the community, the people expressed the following critical views about their relationship and interaction with the government.

Box 3.4: Some views of pastoralists towards government

1. We do not know if we have representation. It seems no one is conveying our problems to the government.

2. Nothing changes. Electing leaders is a waste of time.

3. Government, government - what government are you talking about? We only see the army, if that is what you mean.

4. No one talks to us to ask what we need. The government does not exist here.

5. The government does nothing at all for us.

Source: Devereux, 2006:118

In the same study key informants also reinforced the above views. An elder from Kelafo District expressed it as follows:

… successive regimes have marginalized the district and the Somali Region in general. […] elected local representatives cannot have any positive impact, because they are effectively voiceless and quickly forget their roots in the rural constituencies: The elected representatives do not look back, they go and disappear in Jijiga”¹⁰⁰ (Devereux, 2006:18)

Alternatively other informants “recognized the potential for decentralization to make a difference to local people, but identified serious shortcomings in its implementation”

(Devereux, 2006:118). One of the focus group participants expressed this as follows:

Decentralization can be a good process, but there must be clear communication between the different levels. The District must pass messages to the Regional Government and then they must pass it onto the Federal Government. At the moment, decentralization only means that we have these different levels, but not that there is any communication between the levels (Devereux, 2006:118)

In general what can be drawn from the case of the Somali Region is that political marginalization of pastoral groups still persists. Representation is inadequate at all levels.

Moreover communication gaps between the local people and other actors have been pervasive at all levels. In this case the situation in other pastoral areas may not be significantly different from that of the Somali Region. This point is examined in the context of my study community in Chapter 6.

iii. Risk of Violent Conflict. In Ethiopia despite the political developments since 1991, various forms of conflicts have been intensified. Conflicts occur at different levels, from widespread commercialized animal theft, to political rebellion and secessionism¹⁰¹. Given pastoralists’ position along the state’s boundaries, conflicts from neighbouring countries also spill over across borders, and aggravate inter-state conflicts. Typical examples are the Ethio-Eritrea border war and Ethiopia’s invasion to Somalia.

Conflicts among and between pastoral groups for pastureland, water and access routes are also intensified. Clashes between herders and cultivators have become more frequent.

Frequent clashes also occur between indigenous people and authorities of national parks and private investors, as livestock-herders move their stock into parks and private commercial farms, especially during drought periods.

The ethnic-based political process also involves contention over control of government offices and resources at local level. Tension and conflict among power-mongers has been pervasive at all levels. “Ironically, the modicum of politico–administrative resources brought to the pastoralist domain lately by the move towards decentralization has also become a bone

100 Jijiga is the capital of the Somali national regional government.

101 In most regions, insurgent groups are operating at different levels for political power, some with agenda of seceding or broader autonomy (e.g. OLF, ONLF, ARDUF).

of contention” (Markakis, 2004:26). Control of state office and resources at the local level has sparked inter and intra group conflicts. For instance, Anuak and Nuer contention for dominance in the Gambella Regional State climaxed in massive violence in 2003 (Markakis, 2004:26).

The policy of ethnic federalism has also brought a risk of increased conflicts at the regional frontiers. Some authors argue that “the ethnic based regionalization and mapping of administrative regions has created or added more tension to what is a conflict-prone part of Ethiopia” (Alem, 2001 cited by Flintan and Imeru, 2002:284). This has been common between Somalis and Oromos in the south-east and between Afar and neighbouring sedentary cultivators in the north-east. For instance, changes in distribution of land with the recently defined regions between Somali and Oromiya Regions have escalated ethnic conflict in the Borana area (especially between the Somali clans in Liben and Arrero ward in the Borana lowlands (Flintan and Imeru, 2002:284). The conflicts between the Borana and Hamar pastoralists, and between the Borana and Arbore pastoralists have been ongoing for many years. One major conflict area is the Chewbahir Lake where pastoral groups from Hamar and Borana bring their animals for pasture and water during the prolonged dry seasons or drought periods (Mohammed, 2004: 20-21).

New transport links that cross the lowlands represent a new resource and source of conflict in Awash. The Afar and Issa Somali in eastern Ethiopia are locked into a bitter conflict over the control of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti road. Similarly, the Borana and Gerri have been fighting for more than a decade over a section of the Ethiopia–Kenya road, north of Moyalai (Markakis, 2004:26).

Pastoralists are also affected by larger conflicts between states and/or between the national government and rebel groups. For instance the conflicts between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and conflicts between the Ethiopian government and rebel groups (OLF and ONLF) have affected pastoral groups in the north, and south and south-east respectively. In general, in recent decades inter and intra-ethnic conflicts over resources, access routes and territory boundaries have been intensified due to increased scarcity of resource, and accelerated by curtailment of mobility, high incidence of drought, proliferation of weapons, etc. In a net shell both vertical and horizontal conflicts among various ethnic groups have been pervasive in different parts of the pastoral areas. Therefore, violent conflict has become a risk to livelihoods of many pastoral groups in Ethiopia.

iv. Risk of exclusion from market. Currently there emerge modern ranching schemes and animal fattening for both domestic and foreign markets. These schemes often fulfil standards, since they have access to services and can also invest in disease prevention. Moreover, animals are trucked by modern transport and risks of animal weight loss or morality are avoided. On the contrary, pastoralists live in remote areas and have little access to infrastructures and services or they do not have the means to purchase drugs for disease prevention. Moreover for the pastoralists transport involves major costs. Animals are either trekked or trucked to markets. Trekking is the dominant mode of transportation in pastoral areas. However, trekking has high costs due to animal mortality, weight loss, risk of raid or conflict, taking inconvenient time and bad routes as a result of water point or grass, etc. Taxes

or transit fees may be high, or livestock may be repeatedly taxed. As a result of these constraints, pastoralists face a high risk of exclusion from market. This is due to either their livestock may not meet sufficient health standard for export or for local market, or may not compete in open markets. Sporadic crackdown by the government on “illegal cross-border livestock trade”, and bans by Gulf States on livestock import also contributed to market exclusion. Consequently, pastoral groups are facing constraints to get access to regional markets and cross-border livestock trade due to internal and external factors.

v. Risk of flood (hazard). Geographically, nearly all pastoral areas are found in the lowlands which are crossed by major rivers (Awash, Wabe-Shebelle, Genale, Omo and Baro-Akobo).

The highland areas are highly degraded and the runoff from these areas has been very high in recent decades. Therefore, flash flood is becoming an emerging disaster risk. For instance in summer 2006, a dozen of local people were affected and displaced by flood in South Omo, Somali and Afar; and a number of people were drowned. As a result communities, especially pastoral groups inhabiting in low-lying areas are at risk of flood hazard. This is particularly true in Afar and Somali regions, Southern Omo (SNNP region) and in western Ethiopia (see map 3 for flood prone areas). Therefore, flood hazard is leading to a disaster in marginal areas where pastoral societies are living.

Map 3 Flood Prone Areas in Ethiopia

vi. Risk of HIV/AIDS. HIV/AIDS spread rapidly reaching epidemic proportions by the end of the last century in all the countries of East Africa. In Ethiopia HIV/AIDS is a growing new source of vulnerability with serious economic, social and demographic impacts. The rate of infection in Ethiopia is estimated at about 10% of the adult population (Markakis, 2004:19).

Its prevalence is higher in urban than in rural areas.

In pastoral areas there are conditions that are conducive to the spreading of HIV/AIDS. These include lack of education and information; lack of health services, testing facilities and condoms; poverty and insecurity; and traditional harmful practices. For instance according to the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey report (DHS) the lowest use of modern contraceptive methods is in Somali Region (CSA, 2001:vii). Besides, traditional harmful practices such as female genital mutilation, polygamy, wife inheritance, early marriage, under-age marriage to older men, etc. are other conducive factors for the spread of HIV/AIDS in pastoral areas. Moreover, nowadays small towns are emerging, and the number of animal traders and migrant labourers is increasing in pastoral areas¹⁰². Such developments also indirectly contribute to spread of the HIV/AIDS. A recent study in Somali Region of Ethiopia indicated that prostitutes who migrated from highlands; internally displaced persons; and refugees from Somalia were blamed for the spread of the disease in the Region (Devereux, 2006:154). Therefore, given all these factors the spread of HIV/AIDS pandemic is a risk for pastoral population in Ethiopia.

With special emphasis on pastoralism in East Africa and Ethiopia, this chapter has presented a review of empirical researches carried out on pastoralism, pastoralists’ adaptive and coping strategies, pastoral development policies and strategies pursued by the national governments and their consequences on pastoralists, etc. It is also attempted to depict the pastoralists’

predicaments, marginalization, and transformation caused by internal and external factors.

With this review of the previous empirical works as background, the next four chapters will focus on the Afar pastoralists. Chapters 4&5 will discuss on the Afar political structure, social organizations, livelihood systems and their constraints, adaptive and coping strategies to external pressures and extreme events, etc. Discussions in these two chapters mainly constitute regional level analyses. Chapter 6 presents community and household level analyses focusing on the case study community. Chapter 7 summaries the main findings, and provides conclusions and recommendations.

102 For instance a study carried out in pastoral district (i.e. Maasai-populated Kadjado) of Kenya indicated that animal traders are suspected of being the main conduit of transmission, because they have a high incidence rate of sexually transmitted diseases (Koech, 2001 cited in Markakis:2004:19).