Pastoralists’ Vulnerability to Multiple Risks in East Africa

As stated above, pastoralists in East Africa face a multitude of risks. These include the natural covariant of drought; the idiosyncratic risk of human illness and risk of livestock diseases (which can turn into epidemic diseases); the economic risk of exclusion from markets; the social risk of violent conflict over increasing scarce resources (risks of civil strife), the political risk of marginalization, and the environmental risks of pasture degradation (Rass, 2006:2). This section presents a brief discussion on some of these risks.

i. Drought and its Characteristics: Drought as a natural hazard has been the subject of many studies and defined in many ways according to the needs for water or moisture. Drought may be considered in general terms as a consequence of a reduction over an extended period of time in the amount of precipitation that is received, usually over a season or more in length. It is a temporary aberration, unlike aridity which is a permanent feature of certain climates (ISDR, 2003:4). Drought is a temporary departure from ‘normal’ rainfall patterns, distribution and amount in a climate (Ifejika Speranza, 2006:14). Several terms and definitions for drought include seasonal drought, contingent drought, meteorological drought, agricultural drought and hydrological drought (Ahmed et al., 2002; Ifejika Speranza, 2006). The most common ones are described as follows:

i. Meteorological/climatological drought refers to precipitation deficit in relation to some expected or ‘normal’ (average) amount over an extended period of time.

ii. Agricultural drought refers to deficit in soil moisture available for crop growth.

iii. Hydrological drought is defined best by deficiencies in surface and subsurface water supplies, which lead to lack of water to meet normal and specific water demands.

iv. Socio-economic drought implies an extended and significant negative departure in rainfall, relative to the regime around which society has stabilized (Rasmusson, 1987 cited in Ifejika Speranza, 2006:14).

The first three types are commonly noted in many writings. “Common to all droughts is that they originate from precipitation deficit, which results in water shortage for various uses”

(Ifejika Speranza, 2006:14). Other terms were proposed to qualify a drought according to land use or need such as “pastoral drought” and “ecosystem drought” (FAO, 2002, cited in Ahmed et al., 2002: 21).⁶⁴ Droughts differ from one another in three characteristics:

64 Pastoral drought could be defined as lack of forage availability as a result of particular sequences of meteorological drought, in terms of length, seasonal timing and the intensity of the deficit (Bruins, 2000 cited in Morton, 2006:5).

i. Intensity, which refers to the degree of the precipitation shortfall and/or the severity of impacts associated with shortfall.

ii. Duration, which refers to the timing of the onset of the precipitation shortfall, though the start of a drought is difficult to pinpoint (it can continue for months or years).

iii. Spatial coverage, drought-affected areas evolve gradually as drought shifts from one area to another (Ifejika Speranza, 2006:14).

Drought impacts also vary significantly between locations, because of differences in economic, social, and environmental characteristics at micro and macro levels (ISDR, 2003:4). The same source also stated that drought definitions should be impact or application specific and region specific⁶⁵. Mitigating drought consequences means activities related to the prediction of drought and intended to reduce the vulnerability of society and natural systems to drought (FAO 2002 cited in Ahmed et al., 2002).

ii. Drought and other related risks in pastoral areas of East Africa: In the arid and semi-arid areas of the Horn of Africa drought is a normal part of climate. It is intricately related to the lives of the pastoralists of the Horn of Africa for centuries; however it had projected itself to famine disaster (Ahmed et al., 2002). In general terms drought is a normal part of life in the arid climate, often described as a natural hazard. Whether it leads to disaster depends on its severity and peoples’ vulnerability to such shock. Impacts of drought vary considerably, and the ability of people to cope with drought consequences also varies from one social system to the other. In the Horn of Africa, most of the severe droughts that occurred within past 3-4 decades have developed into famine disasters.

The bulk of land in the Horn of Africa that pastoralists inhabit lies in the semi-arid and arid zone which is characterized by high variability of rainfall. This zone has been severely affected by droughts. Recurrent droughts over the past three to four decades have had their impacts on the human and livestock population as well as reshaping the ecological scene (Abdel Ghaffar and Abdel, 1996:3). For instance the extra-dryness that occurred in the 1980s resulted in loss of livestock and famines that took the lives of many people. Those drought consequences and subsequent droughts constrained quick recovery and asset rebuilding.

Though drought is a recurrent reality in East African drylands with which pastoralists have developed various forms of adaptation, the compounded impacts of internal and external pressures have undermined the means of escaping drought consequences. Therefore, the process of change among pastoral communities is not only a function of physical conditions (e.g. drought), but also a result of their interaction with and/or encroachment of external systems (Abdel Ghaffar and Abdel Ati, 1996:7).

65 For instance the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proposed two definitions for drought: (a) prolonged absence or poor distribution of precipitation; and (b) period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. And the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines drought as “the naturally-occurring phenomenon that exists when precipitation has been significantly below normal recorded levels, causing serious hydrological imbalances that adversely affect land resource production systems” (Ahmed et al., 2002:21).

Therefore, it can be said that the present situation of the dryland of East Africa has become very complex and the predicaments of pastoral groups have increased as a result of socio-political processes as well as ecological or environmental crises. Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are striving to make use of this zone through managing existing resources via their adaptive strategies. However, their resource base (natural resources, livestock) have been eroded and their strategies are undermined due to mounting external interventions and internal processes. As a result, recurring droughts and their consequences have challenged pastoralists’ livelihoods and coping strategies. Therefore, pastoralists in East African countries have become more vulnerable to drought-related famines than they were in the past.

In fact the local people still use their indigenous knowledge to manage their natural resources/environment and to cope with various crises. In some cases, this might have worked. However, in many cases due to internal or/and external factors, the local people had to abandon their traditional ways of land and pasture conservation and try to utilize natural resources to satisfy their immediate needs. The cutting of trees (deforestation), production of charcoal to satisfy the needs of rapidly growing urban areas; forced sedentarization which results in overgrazing and degradation of land, etc. can be cited as consequences of external pressures that exacerbated the impacts of droughts (Abdel Ghaffar and Abdel, 1996:3).

In general many Sub-Saharan Africa countries have been afflicted by the prolonged and recurrent droughts, especially since the 1980s. Many empirical studies also showed that Sub-Saharan African countries were repeatedly affected by droughts, most of which developed into disasters like famines (Ifejika Speranza, 2006:24; Markos, 1997:140). Markakis (2004:4) also describes drought occurrence in East Africa in the following terms:

Drought is a frequent visitor to the region, which the pastoralists regard as ‘an act of God’. A rough collation of recorded incidents in the previous century suggests major incidents occur every 10 years. Anecdotal evidence suggests that drought cycles have shortened from 5-10 years in the past to 3-5 five years at present. Droughts are remembered because they are usually accompanied by famine.

Yet drought does not necessarily lead to disaster which therefore cannot be called “natural”.

Instead drought interplays with other factors to develop into a disaster (e.g. famine crisis).

Ifejika Speranza (2006:22) noted that “there is general notion that if a (drought) hazard and its consequences are not properly managed and controlled, a hazard might develop into a disaster”. Ifejika Speranza further mentions that “a hazard occurrence may become a disaster in one society but may only cause negligible impacts in another society”. Therefore, other social, economic and political processes play major roles in creating vulnerability conditions.

Many studies from East African countries showed that pastoralists’ livelihoods and their drought escaping strategies have been undermined by external encroachments (Ahmed et al., 2002; Markakis, 2004; Devereux, 2006). The combined effects of internal and external forces have eroded the capacity of pastoralists. Traditional pastoral societies are increasingly unable to cope with drought, as indicated by large losses of herd capital, widening poverty and frequent famine (Coppock, 1994 cited in Ahmed et al., 2002:36). The incidence of extreme poverty ranges from 25-55% among African pastoralists/agro-pastoralists (Rass, 2006:1).

Therefore, pastoralists of the region represent a particularly vulnerable group due to their exposure to multiple risks (Rass, 2006: 6).

This suggests the need for intervention of external agencies (government and NGOs) in terms of development investment and risk management to enhance pastoralists’ capacity for coping with risks. External interventions (investment and risk management strategies) should be based on existing livelihood systems, indigenous knowledge (e.g. local adaptive strategies) and on understanding whether risks are preventable (e.g. pasture degradation or violent) or manageable (e.g. drought risk). While an outbreak of epidemics, violent conflicts, or degradation of pastureland can, in theory, be prevented, in the case of drought only risk mitigation⁶⁶ strategies can be set in place (Rass, 2006:2). Moreover, not all pastoralists are vulnerable. They often utilize their indigenous knowledge and strategies to adapt and cope with different circumstances. Therefore, pastoral strategies and adaptive responses have to be taken into consideration in order to understand local livelihood systems and peoples’

resilience.