AnEconometricStudyforLaborMarketinEgyptbyUsingtheGeneralEquilibriumModel Khalifa,AliAbdElaalandEl-Batran,MohsenMahmoudandAtta,SahraKhaleelandShehata,EmadAbdElmessih MunichPersonalRePEcArchive

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

An Econometric Study for Labor Market in Egypt by Using the General

Equilibrium Model

Khalifa, Ali Abd Elaal and El-Batran, Mohsen Mahmoud and Atta, Sahra Khaleel and Shehata, Emad Abd Elmessih

Cairo University - Faculty of Agriculture - Department of Economics - Egypt, Agricultural Research Center - Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Egypt

24 September 2003

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42609/

MPRA Paper No. 42609, posted 14 Nov 2012 14:08 UTC

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺈﺒ ﺭﺼﻤ ﻰﻓ لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴﻟ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﻗ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩ ﺃ

ﺩ

.

ﺔﻔﻴﻠﺨ لﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺩﺒﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ

.

ﺃ

ﺩ

.

ﻥﺍﺭﻁﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﻤﺤﻤ ﻥﺴﺤﻤ

.

ﺩ

ﺎﻁﻋ لﻴﻠﺨ ﺓﺭﻬﺴ

.

ﺩ

ﺔﺘﺎﺤﺸ ﺢﻴﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺩﺒﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﻋ

.

،ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻺﻟ ﺔﻴﺭﺼﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻌﻤﺠﻟﺍ

ﻥﻴﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻺﻟ ﺭﺸﻋ ﻯﺩﺎﺤﻟﺍ ﺭﻤﺘﺅﻤﻟﺍ

،ﻰﻔﻴﺭﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻴﺭﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ،

،ﺭﺒﻤﺘﺒﺴ ٢٠٠٣

١

:

٢٤

-

An Econometric Study for Labor Market in Egypt by Using the General Equilibrium Model

Dr. Ali Abd Elaal Khalifa Dr. Mohsen Mahmoud El-Batran Dr. Sahra Khaleel Atta Dr. Emad Abd Elmessih Shehata

The Egyptian Society of Agricultural Economics, The 11th Conference of Agricultural Economists,

"Human Development in the Rural Sector",

24-25 September 2003; 1-24.

٢

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺈﺒ ﺭﺼﻤ ﻰﻓ لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴﻟ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﻗ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩ

ﺃ ﺩ . ﺔﻔﻴﻠﺨ لﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺩﺒﻋﻰﻠﻋ .

١)

ﺃ (

ﺩ . ﻥﺍﺭﻁﺒﻟﺍﺩﻭﻤﺤﻤ ﻥﺴﺤﻤ .

٢) (

ﺩ ﺎﻁﻋ لﻴﻠﺨﺓﺭﻬﺴ .

٣)

ﺩ (

ﺔﺘﺎﺤﺸ ﺢﻴﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺩﺒﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﻋ .

٤) (

ﻪﻤﺩﻘﻤ : ﺕﻨﺎﻜ ﺍﺫﺈﻓ ،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺎﺒ ﺽﻭﻬﻨﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﺴﻷﺍ ﺓﺯﻴﻜﺭﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻤﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﺩﺤﺃ ﻯﺭﺸﺒﻟﺍ لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺼﻨﻋ ﺭﺒﺘﻌﻴ

ﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺔﻴﺭﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺏﺼﻋ ﻰﻫ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ﻙﻟﺫﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﻨﺎﺼ ﻰﻫ ﺔﻴﺭﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﺭ

لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺼﻨﻋ ﺎﻬﻤﻫﺃﻭ ﺝﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍﺭﺼﺎﻨﻋ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻑﻗﻭﺘﻴ ﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘ ﻉﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻫﺎﺴﻤﻟﹰﺍﺭﻅﻨﻭ .

ﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺓﺭﻴﺒﻜﺔﺒﺴﻨلﻴﻐﺸﺘﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻠﻟ ﺓﺩﺌﺍﺭﻟﺍﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍﺩﺤﺃ ﻩﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺈﺒﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻰﻓﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟ

ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜ ﻰﺼﻗﺃ ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﻰﺘﺤ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﺠﻋ ﻊﻓﺩ ﺓﺭﻭﺭﻀ ﺏﻠﻁﺘﻴ ﺭﻤﻷﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺔﻠﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺙﻠﺜ ﺯﻭﺎﺠﺘ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻴﻭﺍﺯﻟﺍ ﺭﺠﺤ ﺎﻬﻨﺃ ﻕﻠﻁﻨﻤ ﻥﻤ ﻙﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺼﺎﺨﻭ ﺔﺤﺎﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﺇ ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍﺝﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘ .

ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻠﻟ ﹰﺍﺭﻅﻨﻭ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺹﻴﻠﻘﺘ ﻥﻤ ﻙﻟﺫ ﺏﺤﺎﺼ ﺎﻤﻭ ،ﻯﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺡﻼﺼﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﺕﺒﻘﻋﺃ ﻰﺘﻟﺍ

ﻡﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟﺎﺒ ﻡﺎﻤﺘﻫﻹﺍﺏﻨﺎﺠﺒ ﺍﺫﻫ ،ﻰﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍ ﻑﻴﻅﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﻌﻤ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ ،ﺹﻴﺼﺨﺘﻟﺍﻭﺤﻨ ﻩﺎﺠﺘﻹﺍﻭ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﺹﺭﻓﺔﻌﻴﺒﻁﻭ ﺔﻀﻭﺭﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻬﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍﻕﻓﺍﻭﺘ ﻡﺩﻋ ﻥﻋ ﹰﻼﻀﻓ ،ﻰﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﻡﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟﺍﺏﺎﺴﺤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻰﻌﻤﺎﺠﻟﺍ لﻴﻐﺸﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﻡﻗﺎﻔﺘﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ لﻤﻌﻟﺍﻕﻭﺴ لﻜﻴﻫ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘﻰﻠﻋﹰﺎﻴﺒﻠﺴ ﺭﺜﺃ ﻯﺫﻟﺍﺭﻤﻷﺍ،لﻤﻌﻟﺍﻕﻭﺴﻰﻓ ﺔﺒﻭﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻜﻤﻴﻭ .

ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﺯﻜﺭﺘ ﹰﺎﻤﺎﻫ ﹰﺍﺭﺼﻨﻋﻭ ،ﺔﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺠﻴﺘﺍﺭﺘﺴﺇﻥﺎﻜﺭﺃ ﺩﺤﺃ ﺭﺒﺘﻌﻴ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍﻭﺽﺭﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ لﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻐﺘﻟﺎﻓ ،ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﻁﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟ لﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍ ﻰﻘﻴﻘﺤﻟﺍ ﺭﺸﺅﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﻰﺴﺎﺴﻷﺍ ﻯﺩﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺒﺘﻌﻴ ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍﺕﻻﺎﺠﻤ ﺔﻓﺎﻜ ﻰﻓﺔﻴﻘﻴﻘﺤ ﺔﺠﺘﻨﻤ لﻤﻋ ﺹﺭﻓ ﺭﻴﻓﻭﺘ لﻼﺨ ﻥﻤ،ﺭﺼﻤ ﻰﻓﻯﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺡﻼﺼﻹﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻤﻟﺍ . ﻪﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ :

،ﺔﻴﺭﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﺒ ﺽﻭﻬﻨﻟﺍ ﻭﺤﻨ ﺔﻟﻭﺫﺒﻤﻟﺍﺔﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﻬﺠ ﻥﻤ ﻡﻏﺭﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻤﻋ ﺹﺭﻓ ﺩﺎﺠﻴﺇ ﺔﻟﻭﺎﺤﻤﻭ

ﻙﺎﻨﻫ ﻥﺃ ﻻﺇ ،ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺎﻋﻭﻨﻭ ﹰﺎﻤﻜ لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻴﻬﻟﺍﺕﻻﻼﺘﺨﻹﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺩﺤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻘﻴﻘﺤ

،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻭﻤﻨ لﺩﻌﻤ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﺎﻬﻤﻫﺃ ﻥﻤ ﻰﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﺠﻋ ﻊﻓﺩ ﻕﻭﻌﺘ ﻰﺘﻟﺍ لﻜﺎﺸﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺩﻴﺩﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﻌﻤ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ لﻅ ﻰﻓ ﻯﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍﺡﻼﺼﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓﻯﺩﻤ ﻰﻓ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﻥﻤﻜﺘ ﻙﻟﺫﻟﻭ ،

لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴﻭ ﺔﻤﺎﻋ ﺔﻔﺼﺒ ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴ لﻜﻴﻫ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻌﺒﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻭﻅﻨﻤ ﺔﺼﺎﺨﺔﻔﺼﺒﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ .

__________________________________________

١) ﺫﺎﺘﺴﺃ ( ﺘﻗﻹﺍﻡﺴﻗ ﺱﻴﺌﺭﻭ- ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍﺩﺎﺼ

ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍﺔﻴﻠﻜ- ﺓﺭﻫﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﻤﺎﺠ-

.

٢) ﺫﺎﺘﺴﺃ ( ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﻡﺴﻗ- ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻜ-

ﺓﺭﻫﺎﻘﻟﺍﺔﻌﻤﺎﺠ- .

٣) ﺱﺭﺩﻤ ( ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﻡﺴﻗ-

ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍﺔﻴﻠﻜ- ﺓﺭﻫﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﻤﺎﺠ-

.

٤) ﺙﺤﺎﺒ ( ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍﺙﻭﺤﺒ ﺩﻬﻌﻤ- ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺙﻭﺤﺒﻟﺍﺯﻜﺭﻤ -

.

٣

ﻪﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻑﺩﻫ :

ﻼﻁﻨﺇ ﻑﻠﺘﺨﻤﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘ ﻯﺩﻤﻰﻠﻋ ﻑﺭﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻓلﺜﻤﺘﻴﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍﻙﻠﺘﻟ ﻰﺴﻴﺌﺭﻟﺍﻑﺩﻬﻟﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ،ﺔﻴﺜﺤﺒﻟﺍﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻤﹰﺎﻗ

ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁ لﻅ ﻰﻓ ،ﻯﺭﺼﻤﻟﺍ لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴ لﻜﻴﻫ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺨﺍﺩ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻼﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺯﻭﺘﻭ ﻙﻭﻠﺴ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺜﺅﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻌﺒﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﻯﺭﺼﻤﻟﺍ ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻗ ل

ﻡﺎﻋﻰﻨﺯﺍﻭﺘ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﺭﺎﻁﺇ .

ﻪﻴﺜﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻪﻘﻴﺭﻁﻟﺍ :

ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻹﺍ ﻡﺘ ،ﺭﺼﻤ ﻰﻓ لﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻯﺩﻤ ﺢﻴﻀﻭﺘﻟ

"

لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ "

“Liverpool Model”

ﻵﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺈﺒ ﻙﻟﺫﻭ ،ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘﻠﻟ ﻰﻜﻴﻤﺎﻨﻴﺩﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨ

“Simultaneous Equations Models” ﺔﻠﻤﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﻭﻠﻌﻤﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﺘﺤﺇ ﻡﻴﻅﻌﺘ ﺏﻭﻠﺴﺃ ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘ لﻼﺨ ﻥﻤ ،

“Full

Information Maximum Likelihood” (FIML)

ﻰﻤﺘﺭﺎﻏﻭﻠﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﺘﺤﻹﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺩ ﺫﺨﺄﺘ ﺙﻴﺤ ،

“Log

Likelihood Function”

(LLF) ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺍ لﻜﺸﻟﺍ

٢١)

:(

( )

( , , )

( )

( ) ( )

Γ Β Σ Σ Γ

Σ

LLF MT T

T Y

^t

Z

^t

Y

^t

Z

^t

= − + +

− − ⊗ −

−

−

2 2

2 0 5

1

1

ln ln | | ln

. ' I^T

π

β β

ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘ ﻥﻜﻤﻴﻭ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ

(FIML) ﺔﻘﻴﺭﻁﺒ

"

ﻥﺎﻤﺴﻭﻫﻯﺭﻴﺠ "

“Jerry Hausman” ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜ

١٤)

:(

[ ]

( ) ( [ ] ) [ ^{( )} ]

β=

Z

$_t' Σ^−1⊗IT

Z

t ⁻¹

Z

$t' Σ^−1⊗IT

Y

t

;

Σβ=

Z

$t' Σ^−1⊗IT

Z

$t ⁻¹

ﺙﻴﺤ :

= Y

_t

ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻠﺨﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﺔﺠﺘﻤ ﺩﺎﻌﺒﺃﺕﺍﺫ (M)

(MT×1) .

= X

t

ﺩﺎﻌﺒﺃﺕﺍﺫﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤ (T K× xM)

.

[ Y X

_t

:

_t

] = Z

_t

ﺔﻴﺭﻁﻗ ﺔﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﺨﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤ

“Block Diagonal Matrix” ﺕﺍﺫ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻠﻟ

ﺩﺎﻌﺒﺃ (MT×K) .

= β

ﺩﺎﻌﺒﺃ ﺕﺍﺫﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇ ﺕﻼﻤﺎﻌﻤﺔﺠﺘﻤ (K×1)

.

ﺘﺨﻤﻟﺍلﻜﺸﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇﺕﻼﻤﺎﻌﻤ = Γ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻠﻟ لﺯ

“Reduced Form” .

= Σ ﻥﻴﺎﺒﺘﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤ ﺭﻴﺎﻐﺘ-

“Variance-Covariance Matrix” ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻠﻟﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ

.

=IT

ﺓﺩﺤﻭﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤ

“Identity Matrix” ﺩﺎﻌﺒﺃ ﺕﺍﺫ

(T T)

×

.

=

M

،ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﺩﺩﻋ ﻤﺩﺩﻋ = K

،ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇﺕﻼﻤﺎﻌ

=

T

ﺔﻨﻴﻌﻟﺍ ﻡﺠﺤ .

ﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋلﻭﺼﺤﻟﺍ ﻡﺘﻴﻭ

{ Z

$_t=

[ Y X

$_t

:

t

]}

ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺍﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤ ﻥﻤ .

ﺭﻴﻏ ﺔﻴﻁﺨ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﻘﻤ لﻀﻓﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻭﺼﺤﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺩﻜﺄﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻨﻵﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺹﻴﺨﺸﺘ ﺓﺭﻭﺭﻀﻟ ﹰﺍﺭﻅﻨﻭ

ﺌﺎﺘﻨ ﺔﻗﺩ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﺎﻨﺌﻤﻁﻹﺍ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﺓﺯﻴﺤﺘﻤ ﻕﺭﻁﻭ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ لﻜﺎﺸﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻋ ﻑﺸﻜﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﻹﺍ ﻥﻴﻌﺒ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﺫﺨﺃ ﺩﻘﻓ ،ﺎﻬﺠ

ﺞﻨﺍﺭﺠﻻ ﻑﻋﺎﻀﻤ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻠﻘﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﻰﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺝﺍﻭﺩﺯﻹﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻠﺜﻤﺘﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺎﻬﺠﻼﻋ

“Lagrange Multiplier Tests” (LM-Tests)

ﻡﺩﻋﻭ ،ﺱﻨﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺩﻋ ،ﻰﺘﺍﺫﻟﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﻹﺍ لﻜﺎﺸﻤ ﻥﻋ ﻑﺸﻜﻠﻟ

ﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺍﻭﺤﻨﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋﻰﺌﺍﻭﺸﻌﻟﺍ ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍﺩﺤﻟ ﻰﻌﻴﺒﻁﻟﺍﻊﻴﺯﻭ :

ﻰﺘﺍﺫﻟﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﻹﺍ -

“Autocorrelation” ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ ﻡﺘ :

“Breusch-Pagan LM-test”

٨)

ﻥﺎﻜ ﺍﺫﺈﻓ ،(

ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇ (LMa) ﻥﻤ لﻗﺃ ﻯﺃ ﹰﺎﻴﺌﺎﺼﺤﺇ ﻯﻭﻨﻌﻤ ﺭﻴﻏ

(

χ =₁²

384 . )

ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﺇ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻡﺩﻋ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﺍﺫﻬﻓ ،

٤

ﻰﺘﺍﺫ ﺫﺇ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ .

،ﻰﺌﺍﻭﺸﻌﻟﺍ ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺩﺤ ﻰﻓ ﻰﺘﺍﺫ ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﺇ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﺍﺫﻬﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﺌﺎﺼﺤﺇ ﻯﻭﻨﻌﻤ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﻹﺍ ﻥﺎﻜ ﺍ

ﻰﺘﺍﺫﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﻹﺍ ﺏﻭﻠﺴﺄﺒ ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺘﻴ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ

“Autoregressive-FIML” ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻕﻠﻁﻴ ﺙﻴﺤ ،

(A-FIML)

ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇ ﺔﻘﻴﺭﻁﻟ ﹰﺎﻘﻓﻭ

“Beach-Mackinnon Regression” ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜ

٦)

:(

( )

( , , , )

* * * *

| | ( )

( ) ( )

Γ Β Σ Ρ Ρ Σ Γ

Σ

LLF M MT T

T Y

^t

Z

^t

Y

^t

Z

^t

= − − + +

− − ⊗ −

−

−

2 2 2

2 0 5

1

1

ln ln ln | | ln

. ' I^T

π

β β

ﺱﻨﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺩﻋ -

“Heteroscedasticity” ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ ﻡﺘ :

“Engel LM-test”

١١)

ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇ ﻥﺎﻜ ﺍﺫﺈﻓ ،(

(LMh) ﻥﻤ لﻗﺃ ﻯﺃ ﻯﻭﻨﻌﻤ ﺭﻴﻏ

(

χ =₁²

384 . )

ﻥﺎﻜ ﺍﺫﺇ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺩﺤ ﻰﻓ ﺱﻨﺎﺠﺘ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﺍﺫﻬﻓ

ﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ ،ﺱﻨﺎﺠﺘ ﻡﺩﻋ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﺍﺫﻬﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﺌﺎﺼﺤﺇ ﻯﻭﻨﻌﻤ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﻹﺍ ﺏﻭﻠﺴﺄﺒ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘ ﻡﺘﻴ ﻰﻟ

“Generalized Method of Moments” ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻕﻠﻁﻴﻯﺫﻟﺍﻭ،

(GMM-FIML) ﺔﻘﻴﺭﻁﻟ ﹰﺎﻘﻓﻭ،

“Halbert

White” ﻥﻴﺎﺒﺘﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤﺢﻴﺤﺼﺘﻟ

ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﺎﻐﺘ-

٢٢)

:(

( ) ( ) [ ]

( ) [ [ ( ) ] [ ^{( )} ] ] ^{( )}

GMM t t t t GMM t t

t t t t t it t

Z Z Z Y Z Z

X E X E X Z X

β = β =

= ⊗ ⊗ ⊗ ⊗ ⊗ ⊗

− −

−

1 1

1

$' $'

;

$' $

IM IM ' IM IM '

Ψ Ψ Σ Ψ

Ψ

ﺙﻴﺤ

=Εt : ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻠﻟﻰﺌﺍﻭﺸﻌﻟﺍ ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍﺩﻭﺩﺤ ﺔﺠﺘﻤ ﺕﺍﺫ(M)

ﺩﺎﻌﺒﺃ (MT×1) .

ﻰﻌﻴﺒﻁﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﺯﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺩﻋ -

“Non-Normality”

ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ ﻡﺘ :

“Jarque-Bera LM-test”

١٥)

ﻥﺎﻜ ﺍﺫﺈﻓ ،(

ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇ (LMn) ﻥﻤ لﻗﺃ ﻯﺃ ﹰﺎﻴﺌﺎﺼﺤﺇ ﻯﻭﻨﻌﻤ ﺭﻴﻏ

(

χ =₂²

5 99 . )

ﺕﺍﺫ ﻰﺌﺍﻭﺸﻌﻟﺍ ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺩﺤ ﻥﺃ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﺍﺫﻬﻓ

ﺒﺘﺨﻹﺍ ﻥﺎﻜ ﺍﺫﺇ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﻰﻌﻴﺒﻁ ﻊﻴﺯﻭﺘ ﺩﺤ ﻰﻓ ﻰﻌﻴﺒﻁﻟﺍﻊﻴﺯﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺩﻋﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﺩﻭﺠﻭﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﺍﺫﻬﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﺌﺎﺼﺤﺇﻯﻭﻨﻌﻤ ﺭﺎ

ﺏﻭﻠﺴﺄﺒ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘ ﻡﺘﻴ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ ،ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ

“Box-Tidwell FIML” ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇ ﺔﻘﻴﺭﻁﻟ ﹰﺎﻘﻓﻭ ﻙﻟﺫﻭ ،

“Box-

Tidwell Regression”

ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜ

٧)

:(

( ) ( )( )

( , , , )

( )

( ) / ( ) /

Γ Β Σ Σ Γ

Σ

λ

λ λ

π

β λ β λ

LLF MT T

T

Y

t

Z

t

Y

t

Z

t

= − + +

− − − ⊗ − −

−

−

2 2

2

0 5 1 1

1

1

ln ln | | ln

. ' IT

ﻰﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺝﺍﻭﺩﺯﻹﺍ -

“Multicollinearity”

ﻯﻭﺘﺤﻴ : ﻰﻠﻋ لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ٢٨

ﻭﺤﻨ لﻤﺸﺘ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤ ١٢١

ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ

ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﻭﺃ ﺭﻴﺨﺄﺘﺓﺭﺘﻔﺒ ﺔﻴﻠﺨﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﺕﻨﺎﻜ ﺀﺍﻭﺴ ،ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟ ﻥﻤﻴﻷﺍ ﻑﺭﻁﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﹰﺎﻔﻠﺴ ﺩﺩﺤﻤ لﻘﺘﺴﻤ ﻭﺤﻨ لﻤﺸﻴ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨ ١٤٩

ﺏﻭﻠﺴﺃ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ ﻡﺘ ﻰﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺝﺍﻭﺩﺯﻹﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻐﺘﻠﻟﻭ ،ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇ لﻤﺎﻌﻤ

ﻰﻓﺭﻁﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﻹﺍ ﻯﺩﺎﻌﻟﺍ

“Ordinary Ridge Regression” (ORR)

ﺔﻘﻴﺭﻁﺒ

“Marquardt

Algorithm”

١٦)

ﻰﻁﺨ ﺝﺍﻭﺩﺯﺇ ﺎﻬﺒ ﻰﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻘﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍﻑﺫﺤ ﻥﻭﺩ ﻰﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺝﺍﻭﺩﺯﻹﺍﺔﺠﻟﺎﻌﻤﺒ ﻡﺴﺘﺘ ﻰﺘﻟﺍ (

ﺔﺒﺠﻭﻤ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﻊﻀﻭﺒ

( )

δ

ﺓﺩﺤﻭﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﻭﻔﺼﻤ ﺭﻁﻗ ﻰﻓ ﺎﻬﺒﺭﻀ ﻡﺘﻴ

( )

Ik

ﺒﺃ ﺕﺍﺫ ﺩﺎﻌ

( k k

×

)

لﺜﻤﺘ ﺙﻴﺤ ،

(k)

ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜﻰﻨﻵﺍﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇﺕﻼﻤﺎﻌﻤ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺩﺩﻋ :

[ ]

( ) ( [ ] ) [ ^{( )} ]

β=

Z

$_t' Σ⁻¹⊗IT

Z

t+δIk ⁻¹

Z

$t' Σ⁻¹⊗IT

Y

t

;

Σβ=

Z

$t' Σ⁻¹⊗IT

Z

$t+δIk ⁻¹

ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻤ :

لﻼﺨ ﻯﺭﺼﻤﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻫﻷﺍ ﻙﻨﺒﻟﺎﺒ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺓﺭﺸﻨﻟﺍﻭﻁﻴﻁﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺯﻭ ﻥﻤ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻭﺼﺤﻟﺍ ﻡﺘ

ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ١٩٨٠) ٢٠٠٢- ﺠ لﻴﺩﻌﺘ ﻡﺘ ﺩﻘﻟﻭ ،( ﻙﻠﻬﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴﻟ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺴﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻡﻗﺭﻟﺎﺒ ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺭﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﻤ

١٩٨٦) ١٠٠= ﺭﺎﻌﺴﻷﺍ ﻰﻓﺔﻴﻤﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺜﻵﺍﺩﺎﻌﺒﺘﺴﻹ ﻙﻟﺫﻭ،( .

٥

لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟ ﻯﺭﻅﻨﻟﺍﺭﺎﻁﻹﺍ Liverpool Model

:

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨ ﻥﻤ لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺭﺒﺘﻌﻴ

“General Equilibrium Model” (GEM)

ﺙﻴﺤ ،

ﺒ ﻡﻭﻘﻴ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩ

“Monetary Policy” ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ ﻰﻓ ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻠﺜﻤﻤ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘﻭ ،ﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴﻭ

“Fiscal Policy” ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍﻭ ﻰﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻨﻹﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻠﺜﻤﻤ

١٧)

ﺎﻤﻜ ،(

ﺠﻭ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻤﺘﺸﺘ ﻰﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻜﻴﻤﺎﻨﻴﺩﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﹰﺎﻀﻴﺃ لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺭﺒﺘﻌﻴ ﻥﻤﻀ ﺭﻴﺨﺄﺘ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﺒ ﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩ ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ لﻜ ﺩﻭ

ﻰﺌﺯﺠﻟﺍ لﻴﺩﻌﺘﻠﻟﻑﻭﻟﺭﻴﻨ ﻙﺭﺎﻤ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨلﺎﺨﺩﺇلﻼﺨ ﻥﻤﻙﻟﺫﻭ،ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺎﺒ ﺔﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨﻟﺍﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ :

“Marc Nerlove’s Partial Adjustment Model” ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜ

١٨)

:(

it it i i it

Y

= +β ρ0

Y

−1+ ∑k=1β

X

ﺙﻴﺤ

= ρ : لﻴﺩﻌﺘﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻌﻤ

“Coefficient of Adjustment”

( 0

< ≤ρ

1 )

.

ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤ لﻜ ﻰﻓ ﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻠﻟ ﻯﻭﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺎﺠﺘﺴﻹﺍ لﻤﺎﻌﻤ ﻥﻭﻜﻴﻭ (λ= −1 ρ)

ﺔﻴﻨﻤﺯﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻜ ،

ﻥﻭﻜﺘ ﺔﻠﻤﺎﻜﻟﺍﺔﺒﺎﺠﺘﺴﻹﺍﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ﺎﻫﺅﺎﻀﻘﻨﺇﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ

( Tm

=

1 / )

λ

ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺍﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍﻥﻤ ﹰﺍﺀﺩﺒ .

ﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺕﺎﻨﻭﺭﻤﺏﺎﺴﺤ ﻡﺘﻴﻭ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜلﻴﻭﻁﻟﺍ ﻯﺩﻤﻟﺍﻭﺭﻴﺼﻘﻟﺍﻯﺩﻤﻟﺍﻰﻓ ل

:

- Short Run Elasticity:

SRE

= βi

X

it

/ Y

t

- Long Run Elasticity:

LRE

=

SRE /

λ

لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ لﻴﻟﺩ :

= GNP - ﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﻹﺍ ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ

Gross National Product ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ)

(

= NNP - ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍﻰﻓﺎﺼ

Net National Product ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ)

(

= GDP - ﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﻹﺍﻰﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ

Gross Domestic Product ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ)

(

= Inv - ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ National Investment

ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ) (

= Con - ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﻹﺍ

National Consumption ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ)

(

= Gov - ﻰﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍﻕﺎﻔﻨﻹﺍ

Government Expenditure ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ)

(

= Tax - ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍ Taxes

ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ) (

= Exp - ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ Exports

ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ) (

= Imp - ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭﻟﺍ Imports

ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ) (

= Md - ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁ Money Demand

ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ) (

= Ms - ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍﺽﺭﻋ Money Supply

ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ) (

= WL - ﺭﻭﺠﺃ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ لﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ

Labor Wages ﻪﻴﻨﺠﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ)

(

= W - ﻯﻭﻨﺴﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍﺭﺠﺃ Labor Wage

ﻪﻴﻨﺠ) (

= Lpd - لﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﺇ Labor Productivity

ﻪﻴﻨﺠ) (

= Ld - ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍﺏﻠﻁ Labor Demand

لﻤﺎﻋ ﻥﻭﻴﻠﻤ) (

= Ls - ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ Labor Supply

لﻤﺎﻋ ﻥﻭﻴﻠﻤ) (

= Pop - ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍﺩﺩﻋ Population

ﻤ) ﺔﻤﺴﻨ ﻥﻭﻴﻠ (

= Un - ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍلﺩﻌﻤ Unemployment Rate

(%)

= Inf - ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍلﺩﻌﻤ Inflation Rate

(%)

= R - ﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴ Interest Rate

(%)

٦

= Tcn - ﻰﺠﻭﻟﻭﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ Technology

ﻥﻤﺯﻟﺍ) (

ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺭﺎﺸﻹﺍ ﻡﺘ ﺙﻴﺤ ،ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻗ ﺔﺜﻼﺜ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﻊﻴﻤﺠ ﻡﻴﺴﻘﺘ ﻡﺘ ﺩﻘﻟﻭ ﻉﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ

ﺯﻤﺭﻟﺎﺒ ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺯﻤﺭﻟﺎﺒ ﺔﻴﻌﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍﻭ ،(a)

ﺯﻤﺭﻟﺎﺒ ﺔﻴﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍﻭ ،(c) ﺏﻠﻁ ﺀﺎﻨﺜﺘﺴﺈﺒ ﻙﻟﺫﻭ ،(s)

ﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴﻭ،ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍلﺩﻌﻤ،ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍ لﺩﻌﻤ،ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ،ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ،ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍﺽﺭﻋ،ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ .

ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻴﻌﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ لﺜﻤﺘﺘﻭ ﻟﺍ :

ﺎﺒﺭﻬﻜﻟﺍ ،لﻭﺭﺘﺒﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻡﺘ ﻥﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺩﻴﻴﺸﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺀ

ﺔﻴﻌﻠﺴﻟﺍﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍﺔﻋﻭﻤﺠﻤلﺨﺍﺩﻰﻗﺎﺒﻟﺍﺞﻤﺩﻡﺘ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﺔﺼﺎﺨﺔﻔﺼﺒﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻁﻗﻰﻠﻋﺯﻴﻜﺭﺘﻟﺍ .

ﺩﻘﻟﻭ ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻗ لﻤﺸﺘﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻁﻗ لﺨﺍﺩ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺠﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻗ ﺞﻤﺩ ﻡﺘ

ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﺕﻼﺼﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍﻭ لﻘﻨﻟﺍ) :

ﻤﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ لﺎﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ - ﻥﻴ

ﻕﺩﺎﻨﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﻡﻋﺎﻁﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﺤﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ - لﻤﺸﺘ ﺎﻤﻜ ،(

ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺠﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻗ ﺔﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﻓﺍﺭﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻹﺍ) :

ﺔﻴﺼﺨﺸﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺠﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ - ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ -

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺠﻹﺍﺕﺎﻨﻴﻤﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭﺔﻴﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍ .(

لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤ ﻑﻴﺼﻭﺘ :

ﻥﻤلﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ لﻜﻴﻫﻥﻭﻜﺘﻴ ٢٨

ﺔﻴﻜﻭﻠﺴ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤ

“28 - Behavioral Equations” ﻭﺤﻨ ﹰﺎﻀﻴﺃﻭ،

٩

ﺔﻴﻔﻴﺭﻌﺘﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤ

“9 - Identitiy Equations” ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜﺢﻀﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﻭﺤﻨﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋ،

:

ﹰﻻﻭﺃ) ٣٤ ( ﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ

“34 - Endogenous Variables” :

at ct st t at ct st at ct st

at ct st at ct st at ct st t at ct st t

at ct st t at ct st t t t

GNP GNP GNP GNP GDP GDP GDP NNP NNP NNP Inv Inv Inv Con Con Con Ld Ld Ld Ls W W W W WL WL WL WL Tax Tax Tax Inf Md Ms

, , , , , , , , , ,

, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

, , , , , , , , , .

ﹰﺎﻴﻨﺎﺜ) ٤٤ ( ﹰﺎﻔﻠﺴ ﺩﺩﺤﻤﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ

“44 - Predetermined Variables” :

ﺃ ٢٨- ﻐﺘﻤ ﺩﺤﺍﻭﻡﺎﻋﺭﻴﺨﺄﺘ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﺒﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩ ﺭﻴ

“28 - Lagged Endogenous Variables” :

at ct st at ct st at ct st

at ct st at ct st t at ct st

at ct st at ct st t t t

GNP GNP GNP GDP GDP GDP Inv Inv Inv

Con Con Con Ld Ld Ld Ls W W W

WL WL WL Tax Tax Tax Inf Md Ms

− − − − − − − − −

− − − − − − − − − −

− − − − − − − − −

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

, , , , , , , , ,

, , , , , , , , , ,

, , , , , , , , .

ﺏ ١٦- ﻰﺠﺭﺎﺨ ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ

“16 - Exogenous Variables” :

at at ct ct st st t t

t at ct st at ct st t

Exp p Exp p Exp p R Un Tcn Lpd Lpd Lpd Gov Gov Gov Pop

, Im , ,Im , ,Im , ,

, , , , , , , .

,

ﹰﺎﺜﻟﺎﺜ) ٩ ( ﺔﻴﻔﻴﺭﻌﺘﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤ

“9 - Identitiy Equations” :

t t t t t t t t t

GNP NNP GDP Inv Con Gov Tax Ld WL , , , , , , , , .

٧

ﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺍ لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺔﻴﻠﻜﻴ

Structural Equations of Liverpool Model :

at at at at t at at

ct ct ct ct t ct ct

st st st st t st st

GNP GNP Gov Inv Ms Exp p

GNP GNP Gov Inv Ms Exp p

GNP GNP Gov Inv Ms Exp p

= + + + + + −

= + + + + + −

= + + + + + −







−

−

−

10 11 1 12 13 14 15 16

20 21 1 22 23 24 25 26

30 31 1 32 33 34 35 36

β β β β β β β

β β β β β β β

β β β β β β β

Im Im Im

at at at at t

ct ct ct ct t

st st st st t

GDP GDP Ld Inv Tcn

GDP GDP Ld Inv Tcn

GDP GDP Ld Inv Tcn

= + + + +

= + + + +

= + + + +







−

−

−

40 41 1 42 43 44

50 51 1 52 53 54

60 61 1 62 63 64

β β β β β

β β β β β

β β β β β

at at at t

ct ct ct t

st st st t

Inv Inv GNP R

Inv Inv GNP R

Inv Inv GNP R

= + + −

= + + −

= + + −







−

−

−

70 71 1 72 73

80 81 1 82 83

90 91 1 92 93

β β β β

β β β β

β β β β

at at at at t at

ct ct ct ct t ct

st st st st t st

Con Con NNP WL Ms Tax

Con Con NNP WL Ms Tax

Con Con NNP WL Ms Tax

= + + + + −

= + + + + −

= + + + + −







−

−

−

100 101 1 102 103 104 105

110 111 1 112 113 114 115

120 121 1 122 123 124 125

β β β β β β

β β β β β β

β β β β β β

at at at t at at t

ct ct ct t ct ct t

st st st t st st t

Ld Ld GNP Inf W Inv Tcn

Ld Ld GNP Inf W Inv Tcn

Ld Ld GNP Inf W Inv Tcn

= + + + − ± ±

= + + + − ± ±

= + + + − ± ±







−

−

−

130 131 1 132 133 134 135 136

140 141 1 142 143 144 145 146

150 151 1 152 153 154 155 156

β β β β β β β

β β β β β β β

β β β β β β β

Ls

t=β₁₆₀+β₁₆₁

Ls

t₋1+β162

Pop

t+β163

GNP

t+β164

W

t−β165

I

nft

at at at t t

ct ct ct t t

st st st t t

W W Lpd Inf Un

W W Lpd Inf Un

W W Lpd Inf Un

= + + + −

= + + + −

= + + + −







−

−

−

170 171 1 172 173 174

180 181 1 182 183 184

190 191 1 192 193 194

β β β β β

β β β β β

β β β β β

at at at at t

ct ct ct ct t

st st st st t

WL WL GNP Inv Tcn

WL WL GNP Inv Tcn

WL WL GNP Inv Tcn

= + + + ±

= + + + ±

= + + + ±







−

−

−

200 201 1 202 203 204

210 211 1 212 213 214

220 221 1 222 223 224

β β β β β

β β β β β

β β β β β

at at at at

ct ct ct ct

st st st st

Tax Tax GNP WL

Tax Tax GNP WL

Tax Tax GNP WL

= + + +

= + + +

= + + +







−

−

−

230 231 1 232 233

240 241 1 242 243

250 251 1 252 253

β β β β

β β β β

β β β β

Inf

t=β₂₆₀+β₂₆₁

Inf

t₋1+β262

WL

t−β263

Ms

t−β264

Un

t−β265

R

t

Md

t=β270+β271

Md

t−1+β272

GNP

t−β273

R

t

Ms

t=β₂₈₀+β₂₈₁

Ms

t₋1+β282

GNP

t+β283

R

t

٨ Identity:

t at ct st t t t

t t t

t at ct st t t

t at ct st

t at ct st

t at ct st

t at ct st

t at ct st

t at ct st

GNP GNP GNP GNP Inv Con Gov NNP GNP Tax

GDP GDP GDP GDP Inv Con Inv Inv Inv Inv

Con Con Con Con Gov Gov Gov Gov Tax Tax Tax Tax Ld Ld Ld Ld

WL WL WL WL

= + + = + +

= −

= + + = +

= + +

= + +

= + +

= + +

= + +

= + +



















لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻰﻓﺔﻴﻨﻵﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻼﻌﻟﺍﺔﻌﻴﺒﻁﻟ ﻯﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍﻕﻁﻨﻤﻟﺍ :

ﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋﺔﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨﻟﺍﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘ ﺭﻴﺴﻔﺘﺢﻴﻀﻭﺘﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﻜﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤلﻜﺒ

:

ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ لﺍﻭﺩ -

،ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ،ﻰﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻨﻹﺍ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﻰﻟﺇﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻯﺩﺅﺘ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻰﻟﺇ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍﻭ،ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍﺽﺭﻋ .

ﻰﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ لﺍﻭﺩ - لﻜ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

،ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ،ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﻰﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ

ﻰﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻰﻟﺇﻰﺠﻭﻟﻭﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤﻭ .

ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ لﺍﻭﺩ - ﻰﻓ،ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻰﻟﺇﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍﻭ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍﻰﻓﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍﻥﻤ لﻜﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﻹﺍ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇﻰﻟﺇﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴﻉﺎﻔﺘﺭﺇ ﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﻥﻴﺤ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴ

.

ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﻹﺍ لﺍﻭﺩ -

،لﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺠﺃ ،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻓﺎﺼ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﻹﺍﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﻹﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍﻉﺎﻔﺘﺭﺇﻯﺩﺅﻴﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﻹﺍﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻟ ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍﺽﺭﻋﻭ .

ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ لﺍﻭﺩ - ﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍﻰﻓلﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺩﺩﻋﻥﻤلﻜﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﻰﻟﺇﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ لﺩﻌﻤﻭ،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍﺞ

ﻯﺩﺅﺘ ﻥﺃ ﻥﻜﻤﻴﺎﻤﻜ،ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﻰﻟﺇلﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺠﺃ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﺔﻗﻼﻋ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﺔﻟﺎﺤ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻰﺠﻭﻟﻭﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋﺎﻤﻬﻨﻴﺒﺔﻴﻠﻤﺎﻜﺘﻭﺃﺔﻴﻟﻼﺤﺇ ﺏ

.

ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ ﺔﻟﺍﺩ -

،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇ ،ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍﺩﺩﻋ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋﻥﻤ لﻜﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍﺽﺭﻋ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﻹﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍلﺩﻌﻤﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻟلﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺠﺃﻭ .

لﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍﺭﺠﺃ لﺍﻭﺩ - لﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﺇ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍﻰﻓ لﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍﺭﺠﺃ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ لﺩﻌﻤﻭ،

لﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺠﺃﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﻰﻟﺇﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍلﺩﻌﻤﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ،لﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺠﺃ .

لﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺠﺃ لﺍﻭﺩ - ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻟ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍﻭ ،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﺭﻭﺠﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﺨﻨﺇﻭﺃﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻰﻟﺇ ﻰﺠﻭﻟﻭﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﻥﺃﻥﻜﻤﻴﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ،ﺭﻭﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﻭﺠﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻗﺽﺎﻔ

.

ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍلﺍﻭﺩ - ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻟ لﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍﺭﻭﺠﺃﻭ،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺩ - لﺩﻌﻤ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋﻭ ،لﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺠﺃ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ لﺩﻌﻤ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﻴ :

ﻟﺇ ﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍﺭﻌﺴﻭ ،ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍلﺩﻌﻤﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ لﺩﻌﻤﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﻰ

.

ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁ ﺔﻟﺍﺩ - ﺏﻠﻁ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇﻭ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇ ﻰﻟﺇﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴﻉﺎﻔﺘﺭﺇﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﻥﻴﺤ ﻰﻓ،ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ .

٩

ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ ﺔﻟﺍﺩ - ﺍ ﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇ ،ﻕﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻯﺩﺅﺘ :

ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻟ ﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴﻭ ،ﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟ

ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍﻭ ﻰﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻨﻹﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﺩﺤﺄﻜ ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺭﺜﺅﻴ ﺙﻴﺤ .

لﻴﻭﻁﻟﺍ ﻯﺩﻤﻟﺍﻰﻓﻰﻤﻭﻘﻟﺍﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇ ﻰﻠﻋﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃﺩﺤﺄﻜ .

ﻠﻋﺩﻤﺘﻌﻴﺔﻟﻭﺩﻟﺎﺒﻯﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍﻁﺎﺸﻨﻟﺍﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇﺏﻭﻠﺴﺃ ﻥﺃ لﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﻥﻜﻤﻴﻭ ﺎﻤﻫ ﻥﻴﺘﺴﺎﻴﺴﻰ

:

١ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ - ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻯﺩﺅﻴ ﺎﻤﻤ ،ﺓﺩﺌﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴ ﺽﻴﻔﺨﺘﺒ ﺔﻴﻌﺴﻭﺘ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻉﺎﺒﺘﺇ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﺙﻴﺤ :

ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍلﺩﻌﻤ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺇﻭﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻭﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﻹﺍﻭلﺨﺩﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﺒﺯﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ .

٢ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ - ﻰﻓ ﺔﺼﺎﺨﻭ ﻰﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻨﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﺙﻴﺤ :

ﺩﺎﺠﻴﺇﻭ لﺨﺩﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻑﺩﻬﺒ ﺩﺎﺴﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺃ

ﺹﺭﻓ ﺭﻴﻓﻭﺘ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺒﻭ ،ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘﻭ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻤﻌﻴ ﺎﻤﻤ ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍ ﺽﻴﻔﺨﺘ ﻙﻟﺫﻜﻭ ،لﻤﻋ ﺹﺭﻓ ﺔﻟﺎﻁﺒﻟﺍﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﻡﻗﺎﻔﺘﻥﻤ ﺩﺤﻴﺎﻤﻤﺓﺩﻴﺩﺠ ﺔﺠﺘﻨﻤلﻤﻋ .

لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨ (Liverpool)

:

لﻭﺩﺠ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ١)

ﻟ ﻕﻴﻓﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﻭﺠ ﺭﻴﻴﺎﻌﻤ ( ﺩﻴﺩﺤﺘﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻌﻤ ﻰﻫﻭ ،ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤ لﻜ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ

(R²) ﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻰﻓ ﺔﺜﺩﺎﺤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺡﺭﺸ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻠﻘﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺜﺃ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﻯﺫﻟﺍ ﺱﻔﻨ ﺢﻀﻭﻴﻭ .

لﺩﻌﻤﻟﺍﺩﻴﺩﺤﺘﻟﺍلﻤﺎﻌﻤﹰﺎﻀﻴﺃ لﻭﺩﺠﻟﺍ (R²)

ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇﻙﻟﺫﻜﻭ ، (F-test)

لﻜﺒﺹﺎﺨﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺔﻴﻭﻨﻌﻤ ﻥﻴﺒﺘﺙﻴﺤ،ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤ

ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤﺩﻨﻋﹰﺎﻴﺌﺎﺼﺤﺇ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤ ٠^,٠١

.

ﺞﻨﺍﺭﺠﻻ ﻑﻋﺎﻀﻤ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇﺢﻀﻭﺘﻭ (LM-Tests)

لﻭﺩﺠﺒﺓﺩﺭﺍﻭﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ لﻜﺎﺸﻤﻟﺍﻥﻋ ﻑﺸﻜﻠﻟ ١)

،(

ﻡﻗﺭ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺎﺒ ﻰﺘﺍﺫ ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﺇ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ٢٠)

ﻡﺩﻋ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻥﻴﺒﺘ ﺎﻤﻜ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﻋ ﺭﻭﺠﺃ ﺔﻟﺍﺩﺒ ﺔﺼﺎﺨﻟﺍ (

ﺠﺘ ﻡﻗﺭ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺎﺒ ﺱﻨﺎ ١٣)

،( ١٧)

،( ٢٣)

،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻋ ﺭﺠﺃ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ لﺍﻭﺩﺒ ﺔﺼﺎﺨﻟﺍ (

ﺏﻴﺘﺭﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍﻭ ﻰﺌﺍﻭﺸﻌﻟﺍ ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺩﺤ ﻰﻓ ﻰﻌﻴﺒﻁ ﻊﻴﺯﻭﺘ ﻡﺩﻋ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻥﻴﺒﺘ ﻙﻟﺫﻜﻭ .

ﻡﻗﺭ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺎﺒ ١)

،( ٨)

،( ١٨)

،( ١٩)

،( ٢٥) ﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇ لﺍﻭﺩﺒ ﺔﺼﺎﺨﻟﺍﻭ (

،ﺔﻴﻌﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ،ﻰﻋ

ﺏﻴﺘﺭﺘﻟﺍﻰﻠﻋﺔﻴﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻋﺭﺠﺃ،ﻊﻠﺴﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻋﺭﺠﺃ .

ﺩﻘﻓ ،لﻤﺎﻜﺘﻤ ﻰﻨﺁ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺭﺎﻁﺇ ﻰﻓ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ لﻜﺎﺸﻤﻟﺍ ﻙﻠﺘ ﻥﻤ ﻰﻨﺎﻌﺘ ﻰﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﺠﻭﻟ ﹰﺍﺭﻅﻨﻭ

ﻡﻗﺭ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍﺩﺤﻟﻰﺘﺍﺫﻟﺍﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﻹﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤﺝﻼﻋ ﻡﺘ ٢٠)

ﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺒﻭ ،ﻁﻘﻓ ( ﻡﺘ ﺩﻘﻓ،ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍﺩﺤﺱﻨﺎﺠﺘﻡﺩﻋ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤﻟﺔ

ﺔﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻡﻭﺯﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻴﺭﻁ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ (GMM)

ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇ ﺏﻭﻠﺴﺃ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺇ ﻡﺘ ﺎﻤﻜ ،ﹰﻼﻤﺎﻜ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ

“Box-

Tidwell” ﺄﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺩﺤﻟ ﻰﻌﻴﺒﻁﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﺯﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺩﻋ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤ ﻥﻤ ﻰﻨﺎﻌﺘ ﻰﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻏ ﻪﺘﺭﻭﺼ ﻰﻓ

ﹰﺍﺭﻅﻨﻭ .

ﺩﺩﺤﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻷ ﻊﻴﻤﺠ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﹰﻼﻤﺎﻜ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﻔﻠﺴ ﺓﺩﺩﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻗﺃ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤ لﻜﺒ ﹰﺎﻔﻠﺴ ﺓ

ﺯﻴﻴﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﻭﻜﺘ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤ

“Over Identification”

ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﺇ ﺏﻭﻠﺴﺄﺒ لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘ ﻡﺘ ﻙﻟﺫﻟﻭ ،

ﺔﻴﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻏﺔﻠﻤﺎﻜﻟﺍﺕﺎﻤﻭﻠﻌﻤﻟﺍلﺎﻤﺘﺤﺇ ﻡﻴﻅﻌﺘ (NL-FIML)

.

لﻭﺩﺠ ﺢﻀﻭﻴ ﹰﺍﺭﻴﺨﺃﻭ ١)

ﺍﺩﻘﻤ ( ﺔﻴﻭﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺎﺠﺘﺴﺇ ﺭ

( )

λ

ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﻤﺯﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍﻭ ،

ﺔﻠﻤﺎﻜﻟﺍﺔﺒﺎﺠﺘﺴﻹﺍﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟﺎﻫﺅﺎﻀﻘﻨﺇ ﻰﻟﺎﺘﻟﺍﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍﻥﻤﹰﺍﺀﺩﺒﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤ لﻜﺒﺔﻘﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍﺀﻭﻀﻰﻓ (Tm)

.

١٠

لﻭﺩﺠ ١) لﻭﺒﺭﻔﻴﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇﻭ ﻕﻴﻓﻭﺘﻟﺍﺓﺩﻭﺠ ﺭﻴﻴﺎﻌﻤ :(

(Liverpool Model)

.

λ Tm LM-Tests

2 F

2 R Eq. R ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤلﻜﻰﻓ ﻰﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ

LMn LMh LMa Test

Endogenous Variable

1.14 0.88 7.23* 0.19 0.94 10.8**

0.727 0.801 ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯﺞﺘﺎﻨﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇ 1

(GNPa)

5.26 0.19 1.69 0.24 1.11 16.2**

0.805 0.858 ﻰﻌﻠﺴﺞﺘﺎﻨﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇ 2

(GNPc)

1.22 0.82 1.27 3.72 0.98 20.4**

0.841 0.884 ﻰﻤﺩﺨ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻰﻟﺎﻤﺠﺇ 3

(GNPs)

2.04 0.49 1.28 1.90 0.91 90.9**

0.942 0.953 ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻰﻠﺤﻤﺞﺘﺎﻨ 4

(GDPa)

2.08 0.48 1.05 1.28 0.36 84.8**

0.938 0.950 ﻰﻌﻠﺴ ﻰﻠﺤﻤﺞﺘﺎﻨ 5

(GDPc)

1.67 0.60 2.84 0.14 0.21 142.4**

0.963 0.969 ﻰﻤﺩﺨﻰﻠﺤﻤﺞﺘﺎﻨ 6

(GDPs)

4.17 0.24 0.49 0.94 0.50 46.7**

0.862 0.881 ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﺇ 7

(Inva)

4.17 0.24 82.24* 0.04

2.37 16.2**

0.817 0.836 ﺔﻴﻌﻠﺴ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﺇ 8

(Invc)

3.03 0.33 1.17 0.28 1.22 65.6**

0.898 0.912 ﺔﻴﻤﺩﺨﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﺇ 9

(Invs)

1.37 0.73 1.28 0.62 0.17 40.3**

0.899 0.922 ﻰﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﺇ 10

(Cona)

2.08 0.48 2.04 0.23 1.25 59.2**

0.930 0.946 ﻰﻌﻠﺴﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﺇ 11

(Conc)

1.49 0.67 3.18 1.32 0.45 177.3**

0.976 0.981 ﻰﻤﺩﺨﻙﻼﻬﺘﺴﺇ 12

(Cons)

3.33 0.30 5.93 4.46* 2.61 551.8**

0.993 0.995 ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍلﺎﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ 13

(Lda)

3.23 0.31 1.30 1.46 1.35 248.3**

0.985 0.989 ﻊﻠﺴﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ 14

(Ldc)

2.08 0.48 1.62 2.83 1.05 542.4**

0.993 0.995 ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍلﺎﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋﺏﻠﻁﻟﺍ 15

(Lds)

2.22 0.45 2.20 0.17 0.07 391.0**

0.989 0.991 ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ 16

(Ls)

6.67 0.15 2.58 9.96* 2.21 64.3**

0.920 0.935 ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍلﻤﺎﻋ ﺭﺠﺃ 17

(Wa)

2.33 0.43 9.06* 0.86 3.36 10.2**

0.626 0.694 ﻊﻠﺴﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻋﺭﺠﺃ 18

(Wc)

1.33 0.75 81.02* 0.27

3.49 10.1**

0.623 0.692 ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍ لﻤﺎﻋ ﺭﺠﺃ 19

(Ws)

1.56 0.64 0.21 2.86 3.98*

31.8**

0.848 0.876 ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﻋﺭﻭﺠﺃ 20

(WLa)

2.27 0.44 1.04 1.18 2.69 108.1**

0.951 0.960 ﻊﻠﺴﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﻋ ﺭﻭﺠﺃ 21

(WLc)

1.39 0.72 5.59 0.04 3.00 26.0**

0.820 0.853 ﺕﺎﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍلﺎﻤﻋ ﺭﻭﺠﺃ 22

(WLs)

1.18 0.85 4.20 7.80* 0.21 14.7**

0.805 0.825 ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀ 23

(Taxa)

1.61 0.62 3.08 1.28 0.38 12.2**

0.605 0.659 ﺔﻴﻌﻠﺴﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀ 24

(Taxc)

2.63 0.38 8.22* 0.16 0.30 16.2**

0.871 0.895 ﺔﻴﻤﺩﺨ ﺏﺌﺍﺭﻀ 25

(Taxs)

1.28 0.78 0.22 0.05 0.72 19.7**

0.665 0.741 ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ 26

(Inf)

2.38 0.42 1.04 0.01 0.71 219.9**

0.968 0.972 ﺏﻠﻁ 27

ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ (Md)

11.11 0.09 3.93 0.28 0.89 61.5**

0.892 0.907 ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻋ 28

(Ms)

(*) ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺇﺕﺤﺘ : (LM-Tests)

ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻤﻟﺎﺒﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﻗﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤﺩﻭﺠﻭﻟﺭﻴﺸﺘ (**).

ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤﺩﻨﻋﺔﻴﻭﻨﻌﻤﻟﺍﻰﻟﺇﺭﻴﺸﺘ : ٠,٠١

.

ﺭﺩﺼﻤﻟﺍ ﻊﺠﺍﺭﻤﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻥﻤﺕﺒﺴﺤﻭﺕﻌﻤﺠ : ١)

،( ٥) .(