North Korean Situation and Military Threat
2. Military Threats
| Military strategy |
Under the cloak of the Juche ideology, North Korea sticks to the Self-Defense Principle to justify its continuous buildup of military power. Since adopting the Four–Point Military Lines7 in 1962, the North has continued to put military power first. Since Kim Jong Il attained power, under the banner of the Military First Policy, the top priority of the North has been to possess a military capacity superior to that of South Korea.7KHEDVLFQDWLRQDOJRDORI1RUWK.RUHDLV³XQL¿FDWLRQRIWKHWZR.RUHDV under communist control,” which is unlikely to change as long as the current Kim Jong Il and the Kim Jong Un regime retains power. To realize this goal, the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has used surprise attacks, composite warfare and a short-term blitzkrieg strategy, while seeking various tactics and mixed warfare in consideration of the ROK forces’ high-tech weaponry and the nature of modern warfare. In addition, the North has been concentrating on its asymmetric military capabilities, including WMDs, special forces, long-range artillery, underwater forces and cyber attacks, while selectively increasing its conventional weapons. The KPA’s asymmetric forces, in particular, pose a serious threat to the ROK military because they can be used as a core means of attack during war time and for local provocations during peace time.
| Military command organizational structure |
The National Defense Commission (NDC) is the highest-ranking military command organization in North Korea. It directs overall military matters and defense-related construction programs. (The Socialist Constitution of North Korea, Articles 106 and 109). As the Chairman of the NDC, the Chairman of the Control Military Committee of the Worker's Party, and a Presidium member of the Worker's Party, Kim Jong Il controls military organizations, such as the General Political Bureau, the General Staff Department, and the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces.7. Four-Point Military Lines
· Instilling cadre potential in every soldier
· Modernizing the entire military
· Arming the entire population
· Turning the whole nation into a fortress
Section 3. North Korean Situation and Military Threat
29
The military organizations that Kim Jong Il's directions directly receive are the Body Guard Command and the Military Security Command. The former is in charge of protecting Kim Jong Il, his family and high-ranking officials of the Worker's Party as well as guarding Pyongyang. The latter serves as the secret police within the military that remains vigilant for anti-Kim Jong Il factions. The General Political Bureau controls matters concerning the organization of the party within the military and political ideology. The General Staff exercises military command authority, i.e., the right to conduct military operations. The Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces represents the military externally and exercises military administrative rights, i.e., rights concerning military diplomacy, logistics, DGPLQLVWUDWLRQDQG¿QDQFHV7KH1RUWK¶VPLOLWDU\FRPPDQGRUJDQL]DWLRQLV as shown in Figure 1-2.
| Military capabilities |
Under the General Staff Department, the ground forces are organized into nine regular corps, two mechanized corps, the Pyongyang Defense Command, the Border Security Command, the 11th corps previously known as the Light Infantry Training & Guidance Bureau (LITGB), and the Missile Guidance Bureau, numbering a total of 15 corps level units.North Korea has deployed about 70 percent of its ground forces to south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line, and some of its forces are ready to make a surprise attack from secure positions around the Northern Boundary of the MDL. The 170mm self-propelled artillery and 240mm multiple rocket
㹑㥉㾌ạ
Regulars Mechanized Pyongyang Defense Command
Border Security
Command 11th Corps Missile Guidance
Bureau Armor Mechanized
Infantry Artillery Navy Command Air Force
Command
(9)
××× : Corps, ×× : Division
11th Corps: Previously known as the Light Infantry Training & Guidance Bureau
(2) (4)
Figure 1-2. North Korea’s Military Command Organization
Firing 170mm self-propelled artillery
launchers have been kept in place, and with those weapons, the KPA is capable of carrying out a massive surprise artillery attack on the Greater Seoul metropolitan area.
The mainstay of the armored and mechanized units now involves the T-54 /55 tanks and the 'Cheonmaho' tank that is an upgrade over the T-62 tank. Recently, some of the units subordinate to the mechanized corps were moved to the frontline and new tanks replicated after the T-72 tank were developed and operationally deployed. Due to the deployment of the new tanks, the replaced ones are being used in the rear areas. Likewise, North Korea is maintaining the short-term blitzkrieg strategy and is improving its RSHUDWLRQDOÀH[LELOLW\E\UHLQIRUFLQJWKHPRELOLW\DQGVWULNHFDSDELOLWLHVRI its mobile units.
The North has been strengthening its special warfare capabilities by deploying light infantry divisions8 to the frontline corps and adding an infantry regiment to the frontline. The number of special force troops is estimated to reach approximately 200,000. It is assumed that these troops have been trained to conduct composite operations, such as major target VWULNHVDVVDVVLQDWLRQRILPSRUWDQW¿JXUHVDQGGLVUXSWLRQRIUHDUDUHDVDIWHU LQ¿OWUDWLQJWKHUHDUDUHDVRIWKH6RXWKWKURXJKHLWKHUXQGHUJURXQGWXQQHOV or AN-2 planes. The current major weapons possessed by the North Korean ground forces are shown in Figure 1-3.
March of special warfare units 8. Light infantry division
Organized under the frontline corps, this division for special warfare contributes to the operations of the regular corps by infiltrating into mountainous regions. In addition, it conducts large-scale composite operations and operations to disrupt rear areas.
Figure 1-3. The North Korean Ground Forces’ Major Weapons
approx. 4,100 Tanks
approx. 2,100 Armored
vehicles
approx. 8,500 Field artillery
approx. 5,100 MRL
approx. 3,000 River-crossing equipment
K-61/S type pontoon bridge
Section 3. North Korean Situation and Military Threat
31
The NavyFRQVLVWVRIWZRÀHHWFRPPDQGVVTXDGURQVEDVHVDQG two maritime sniper brigades for special operations organized under the Naval Command.
While it is assumed that there have not been major changes in the Navy’s operational capabilities, new submarines and torpedoes are believed to be under development. About 60 percent of the Navy is deployed in forward naval bases south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line. Thus, the North is capable of springing ambush attacks. However, rather than operating independently, the Navy conducts operations in tandem with the ground forces by supporting the deployment of ground forces and by defending coastal areas.
As for its military capabilities for surface warfare, the Navy is equipped with the surface battle group consisting of guided missile patrol boats (PTG), torpedo ERDWVVPDOOSDWUROERDWVDQG¿UHVXSSRUWSDWUROFUDIW3&)6WKDWDOOKDYHWKH DELOLW\WR¿JKWDVLQGLYLGXDODWWDFNVKLSV+RZHYHUWKHVHVXUIDFHFRPEDWDQWV are mostly comprised of small high-speed vessels that have poor mobility under bad weather conditions and limited operational capabilities at sea.
As for underwater warfare, the Navy possesses 70 submarines, including Romeo-class, Sang-o (Shark)-class and Yeon-o (Salmon)-class submarines, and its missions are to lay mines, attack surface ships and support the infiltration of corps for special warfare. As witnessed in its attack on the ROK Ship Cheonan, when it used new torpedoes to attack the ROK ship, North Korea will continuously develop asymmetric tactics to attack ROK naval vessels that feature weapons systems far superior to those of the North.
The North Korean Navy also operates landing vessels produced since the early 1970s, including a total of 260 vessels such as Landing Craft Air Cushion and personnel landing craft and 30 mine sweeping boats. The maritime sniper brigades and the navy reconnaissance battalions strike at PDMRUIDFLOLWLHVVXFKDVUDGDUVDQGQDYDOEDVHVE\VHFUHWO\LQ¿OWUDWLQJLQWR those target facilities. In addition, they will secure major strategic ground areas along with coastal lines to support short-range amphibious operations that do not require large landing craft. The number of vessels possessed by the North Korean Navy is shown in Figure 1-4.
The Air Force is comprised of four air divisions, two tactical transportation brigades, two sniper brigades, and air defense units all of which are under the direct control of the Air Force Command. Except for the aircraft introduced after 1980, most North Korean aircraft are decrepit.
However, an apparent change in its military capacity has not been seen with WKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIDQHZ¿JKWHU
The Air Force divided the entire territory into four districts when deploying its units. Of the total force size, 40 percents are deployed to forward bases located south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line, thus guaranteeing a readiness to launch surprise attacks on the South’s major facilities.
The North Korean Air Force will carry out surprise attacks at the beginning of a war so as to destroy South Korea’s air defense assets, supply routes, industrial and military facilities and national infrastructure. In particular, with AN-2s and helicopters, the North is capable of dropping its special warfare forces deep in the South’s rear areas.
The North’s air defense system is centered on the Air Force Command, in which are the integral parts of the system: aircraft, ground-to-air missile units, anti-aircraft artillery units and radar units. Dividing the air space into four zones, the first stage of air defense is assigned to the Air Division.
SA-3 missiles have been placed in the Pyongyang area and major military facilities and SA-2/5 ground-to-air missiles have been deployed in defense of the whole Military Demarcation Line (MDL) area and the east and west coasts. Anti-aircraft artillery has been heavily deployed in mobile units to protect major cities, ports and military-industrial facilities.
KN-06 Ground-to-Air Missiles
Figure 1-4. The number of vessels possessed by the North Korean Navy
approx. 420 Surface combatants
approx. 70 Submarines
approx. 260 Landing
vessels
approx. 30 Mine sweeping
boats
approx. 30 Others
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33
Radar units, including ground controlled interception bases and early warning bases, are spread evenly across North Korea to cover not only the entire Korean Peninsula but also parts of China. In addition, the automated air defense control systems have been enhanced so as to shorten response time and improve accuracy. The North Korean aircraft inventory is shown in Figure 1-5.
The reserve forces are comprised of the Reserve Military Training Unit, the Worker and Peasant Red Guard, the Red Youth Guard, and para-military units. Civilians between the ages of 14 and 60, approximately 30 percent (7.7 million) of the entire population, are subject to wartime mobilization in North Korea. The status of the reserve forces is shown in Table 1-1.
Figure 1-5. North Korea’s Air Force Aircraft
approx. 820 Fighters
approx. 30 Reconnaissance
aircraft
approx. 330 Transport aircraft
(AN-2 included)
approx. 300 Helicopters
approx. 170 Trainers
Table 1-1. The Reserve Forces of North Korea
Division Strength Note
Reserve Military
Training Unit approx. 0.6 million
ǩ6XEMHFWWRFRPEDWPRELOL]DWLRQ - men between 17 and 50 - women between 17 and 30 Worker and Peasant
Red Guard approx. 5.7 million ǩ(TXLYDOHQWWRWKH52.ǢV+RPHODQG Reserve Forces
Red Youth Guard approx. 1 million ǩ0LOLWDU\RUJDQL]DWLRQRIPLGGOH school students
Para-military units approx. 0.4 million
ǩ%RG\*XDUG&RPPDQG0LQLVWU\RI People’s Security
ǩ/RJLVWLFV0RELOL]DWLRQ*XLGDQFH%XUHDX Speed War Youth Shock Troops Total approx. 7.7 million
Among all of these units, the Reserve Military Training Unit is the core reserve force, and its training is as intense as that of the standing forces.
In addition, the Unit continuously enhances its combat capabilities by receiving old equipment from the regular army whenever their equipment is upgraded. The Reserve Military Training Unit undergoes intensive training to enable it to replace the regular forces, if need be, during wartime.
To secure strategic weapons, North Korea has been continuously developing nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and biochemical weapons.
In the 1960s, North Korea constructed a nuclear complex in Yongbyon and, in the 1970s, concentrated its nuclear research on nuclear fuel milling, conversion, and fabrication technologies. From the 1980s to 2009, it has extracted nuclear material from a 5-megawatt reactor and reprocessed spent fuel rods four times. Pyongyang is now presumed to have acquired approximately 40 kilograms of plutonium. Indeed, the North conducted nuclear tests in October 2006 and May 2009. In an announcement by a foreign affairs department spokesperson in April 2009, North Korea suggested that it had completed the ‘enrichment of uranium,’ followed by its claim in November 2010 that it was running around 2,000 centrifuges.
Considering the above mentioned, it is suspected that the North has pursued a highly enriched uranium (HEU) program.
North Korea embarked on the development of ballistic missiles in the 1970s, and by the mid-1980s, it had produced and operationally deployed 300km-range Scud-Bs and 500km-range Scud-Cs.
In the 1990s, North Korea deployed 1,300km-range Rodong missiles for operational purposes. In 2007, it began to develop new intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) called the Musudan9 with a range that extended beyond 3,000km and which were capable of direct strikes on neighboring countries, including South Korea, Japan and Guam. Since the 1990s, North Korea has been carrying out ICBM development and conducted a test-launch of the Taepodong-1 and Taepodong-2 missiles in 1998 and 2006, respectively. In April 2009, the North launched a long-range missile. The ranges of the missiles are shown by type in Figure 1-6.
9. Musudan
Named after Musudan, Hwadae-gun, Hamgyeongbuk-do, where the North’s missile development facilities are located.
Musudan missiles on display at the anniversary of the KWP (October 2010)
Section 3. North Korean Situation and Military Threat
35
It is believed that approximately 2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons remain stored in the facilities scattered across the country. The North is also suspected of being able to independently cultivate and produce such biological weapons as anthrax, smallpox, and cholera.
To maintain its war sustainability and logistical mobilization capabilities, North Korea has prioritized its military industry, despite its energy and economic crises.
The North retains about 300 logistics factories. In addition, non-military production facilities that are designated as logistics factories can also, on short notice, be used for logistical mobilization during wartime. Most of the war stockpile is kept in hardened underground storage facilities, and the quantity of WKHZDUVWRFNSLOHKDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGWREHVXI¿FLHQWIRUWZRWRWKUHHPRQWKV However, without additional purchases from the outside or external support, North Korea’s ability to engage in a protracted war would be limited.
Figure 1-6. The Ranges of the North’s Missiles by Type
Australia India
Japan
Hawaii Alaska
China Moscow
Guam Taepodong
Rodong Scud
Musudan 1,300km
3,000km
6,700km 500km
Section 1. National Security Strategic Guidance