The contested border between Southern Darfur and Northern Bahr el Ghazal has seen an extensive military build-up since the signing of the CPA, and increas-ingly since 2010. Part of what is at issue is the growing power of JEM, as its forces move east from their bases in Darfur. The successful spread of JEM, its use of positions inside South Sudan, and SAF’s loss of control of the south of Southern Darfur could produce what the NCP wants least of all: a united front, no matter how tenuous the alliances, against the GoS, stretching from Darfur through to South Kordofan.
The current phase of military build-up began in October 2010, when parts of the SPLA’s 3rd Division occupied Kiir Adem, a village next to the only bridge over the River Kiir in the area. When SAF bombed these positions in October and November 2010, the SPLA increased its force on the river to a battalion, re-inforced with T-55 tanks (Gramizzi and Tubiana, 2012, p. 67–68). As of 1 January 2013, the SPLA maintains positions at least 5 km north of Samaha (see Map 4).91 In 2011, SAF built up a presence north of Kiir Adem, with UNMISS sources reporting that there was a company-sized unit positioning itself between Abu Matareq and the Kiir in December 2011. In 2012, SPLA sources reported a con-tinuous build-up of SAF forces near the river, with SAF using helicopters to fly in infantry in mid-June 2012.
The first half of 2012 saw not only an extensive SAF air campaign, both along the border with Southern Darfur and in areas clearly within South Sudan’s sovereign territory, but also ground attacks on northerly SPLA positions. From 12 April 2012, Warguit was subjected to continuous aerial bombardment and ground attacks. The attacks lasted until 28 May, and resulted in five civilian deaths and roughly 750 internally displaced people. Nonetheless, the SPLA managed to retain control of Warguit, as well as Kiir Adem, and Samaha, the market town just north of the river, opposite Kiir Adem.
Aweil
Map 4 Clashes and military positions
along the Northern Bahr el
Throughout 2011, JEM also maintained a presence along the border between South Kordofan and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Up until the occupation of Hejlij, which focused attention on the relationship between JEM and the SPLA, there were extensive reports of JEM bases close to Aweil town. Since May 2012, JEM have relocated away from urban centres in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, though they maintain positions in the border area: if the SDBZ is to be implemented, one of the most difficult decisions will be what to do about JEM positions south of Meiram.
Some of the anger in Northern Bahr el Ghazal over the 27 September Security Agreement is due to the casualties and suffering endured by the SPLA in the clashes of April and May. Withdrawing from those hard-won positions was a bitter pill to swallow. In a sense, the 27 September agreements offer an inversion of the May 2011 invasion of Abyei. If, during that invasion, the NCP achieved on the ground what it could not achieve at the negotiating table, in the 27 September agreements they attempted to negotiate an SPLA withdrawal from areas they failed to occupy during conflict.
Since the signing of the 27 September agreements, events have done little to increase security in the border region. While President Kiir engaged in intense diplomacy in Northern Bahr el Ghazal to mollify those aggrieved by the 27 Sep-tember Security Agreement, SAF continued to bomb SPLA positions along the Kiir in November and December 2012, making an SPLA withdrawal increas-ingly difficult to envisage (Sudan Tribune, 2012l, 2012w). On 20–22 November, SAF bombed positions just north of the river, and responded to GRSS criticisms by saying they were bombing SRF positions. The argument was that, if the GRSS was claiming these SRF positions as its own, this showed it was still supporting rebel movements inside Sudan. Ground assaults and air bombardments of SPLA positions at Kiir Adem continued in December. Governor Paul Malong Awan, who visited Kiir Adem shortly after the attacks, was bellicose (Sudan Tribune, 2012x). Some of these clashes involved the Rizeigat, with between 8 and 28 killed around Warguit. Mohamed Isa Aleu, a member of the Rizeigat Shura council, said the SPLA had shelled SAF positions. It appears that SAF launched attacks on SPLA positions at Warguit, before being driven back beyond Meiram. As of December 2012, Rizeigat pastoralists had not come south of positions 20 km north of the River Kiir (Radio Dabanga, 2012a). As it becomes increasingly
apparent the SDBZ will not be implemented, the NCP has shifted to trying to drive the SPLA away from the Kiir, and sever links between the SRF and the SPLA by force.
As in Unity state, successful migrations are also a function of broader mili-tary currents, and the ongoing conflict in Northern Bahr el Ghazal is likely to massively disrupt the migratory season currently under way. SAF’s continued attacks will only intensify the feeling among the Malual Dinka that it is not safe to withdraw from the 14-Mile Area, leading to a political impasse on the Northern Bahr el Ghazal–East Darfur border.