Wealth and Happiness: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia
Landiyanto, Erlangga Agustino and Ling, Jeffrey and Puspitasari, Mega and Irianti, Septi Eka
2011
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50012/
MPRA Paper No. 50012, posted 21 Sep 2013 16:48 UTC
:HDOWKDQG+DSSLQHVV(PSLULFDO(YLGHQFHIURP,QGRQHVLD
(UODQJJD$JXVWLQR/DQGL\DQWR -HIIUH\/LQJ
0HJD3XVSLWDVDUL 6HSWL(ND,ULDQWL
$EVWUDFW
/RRNLQJ DW WKH HFRQRPLFV RI KDSSLQHVV LV DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ ZD\ WR SURYLGH D EURDGHU FRQFHSWRIZHDOWK,WJLYHVLQVLJKWRQUHODWLYHXWLOLW\WKDWGRHVQRWGHSHQGH[FOXVLYHO\RQLQFRPH DV PHGLDWHG E\ LQGLYLGXDO FKRLFHV RU SUHIHUHQFHV ZLWKLQ PRQHWDU\ EXGJHW FRQVWUDLQWV EXW DOVR FRQVLGHUVQRQPRQHWDU\IDFWRUV5HFHQWHFRQRPLFVWXGLHVRQKDSSLQHVVRUVXEMHFWLYHZHOOEHLQJ PRVW LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV JLYH XV VRPH LQVLJKW RQ ZKDW FRQWULEXWHV WR LQGLYLGXDO·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
.H\ZRUGV+DSSLQHVV:HDOWK
1 This paper is personal view of authors and did not represent the views of UNICEF or other United Nations Body. Previous version of this paper was presented at 10th Indonesian Regional Science Association International Conference, July 28-29, 2010, in Surabaya, Thanks in advance for Karen
2 !"#$%& #!
3 Research fellow, School of Business and Economics, University Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia
4 Student of Faculty of Economics, Airlangga University
5 Student of Faculty of Economics, Airlangga University
,QWURGXFWLRQ
´7KRVHZKRVD\WKDWPRQH\FDQ·WEX\KDSSLQHVVGRQ·WNQRZZKHUHWRVKRSµ
$QRQ
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
6LQFH WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ RI (DVWHUOLQ 3DUDGR[ E\ 5LFKDUG (DVWHUOLQ KH PDNHV SURPLQHQW XVH RI KDSSLQHVV GDWD ZKHQ KH UHSRUWHG WKDW GHVSLWH LQFUHDVHV LQ SHUVRQDO LQFRPH RYHU WLPH SHRSOH ZHUH QRW UHSRUWLQJ DQ LQFUHDVLQJ OHYHO RI KDSSLQHVV 7KH IRFXV RI VLJQLILFDQFH EHWZHHQ ZHDOWK DQG KDSSLQHVV HFRQRPLFV KDV UDLVLQJ PRUHDWWHQWLRQIURPHFRQRPLVWVDURXQGWKHZRUOGDVDQLPSRUWDQWVXEMHFWLQVFKRODUO\
UHVHDUFK ,I ZH EDFN WR WZHQW\ILYH \HDUV DJR (DVWHUOLQ SRVHG DQ LPSRUWDQW TXHVWLRQ´:LOOUDLVLQJWKHLQFRPHVRIDOOLQFUHDVHWKHKDSSLQHVVRIDOO"µ7KRXJKPRVW FLWL]HQV DQG HFRQRPLVWV KDYH LPSOLFLWO\ DVVXPHG WKDW WKH DQVZHU LV ¶\HV· WKHRULHV RI UHODWLYH SUHIHUHQFH SUHGLFW WKDW WKH DQVZHU PD\ EH ¶QR· ,QWXLWLRQ PD\ RIWHQ FRQWUDVW DJDLQVW WKHRUHWLFDO DQVZHUV DQG WKLV UDLVHG LQWHUHVWLQJ UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ LQ WKLV SDSHUSDUWLFXODUO\WRDGHYHORSLQJFRXQWU\OLNH,QGRQHVLD+DSSLQHVVVXUYH\VFDQDOVR EHXWLOL]HGWRJDXJHWKHZHOIDUHHIIHFWVRIYDULRXVSXEOLFSROLFLHV+RZGRHVDWD[RQ DGGLFWLYH VXEVWDQFHV VXFK DV WREDFFR DQG DOFRKRO IRU H[DPSOH DIIHFW ZHOOEHLQJ"
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
SV\FKRORJLVWV
7KH HFRQRPLFV RI KDSSLQHVV GRHV QRW SXUSRUW WR UHSODFH LQFRPHEDVHG PHDVXUHV RI ZHOIDUH EXW LQVWHDG WR FRPSOHPHQW WKHP ZLWK EURDGHU PHDVXUHV RI ZHOOEHLQJ 7KHVH PHDVXUHV DUH EDVHG RQ WKH UHVXOWV RI ODUJHVFDOH VXUYH\V DFURVV FRXQWULHV DQG RYHU WLPH RI KXQGUHGV RI WKRXVDQGV RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DUH DVNHG WR DVVHVV WKHLU RZQ ZHOIDUH 7KH VXUYH\V SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI D UDQJH RI IDFWRUV ZKLFK DIIHFW ZHOOEHLQJ LQFOXGLQJ DVVHW EXW DOVR RWKHUV VXFK DV KHDOWKPDULWDOHGXFDWLRQDQGDJH
7KH RQO\ FRPSUHKHQVLYH HYDOXDWLRQ RI TXDOLW\ RI OLIH WKDW GRHV QRW UHTXLUH PL[LQJ YDULRXV LQGLFDWRUV LQ D PRUH WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV PDNH WKHPVHOYHV ZKHQ DVNHG DERXW WKHLU OHYHO RI KDSSLQHVV RU KRZ VDWLVILHG WKH\ IHHO ZLWK WKH OLIH WKH\ OHDG +RZHYHU IRU WKHVH YHU\ UHDVRQV SROLWLFLDQV DQG OHDGHUV PXVW WU\ WR XQGHUVWDQG KRZ SHUFHSWLRQV DUH IRUPHG DQG KRZ WKH\ LQIOXHQFH WKH DWWLWXGHV RI LQGLYLGXDOV DQG WKHLU UHODWLRQVZLWKLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGSXEOLFSROLFLHV
7R DQVZHUV WKH TXHVWLRQV WKLV SDSHU LV GLYLGHG LQWR VHFWLRQV 6HFWLRQ SURYLGHV D EULHI LQWURGXFWLRQ DERXW KDSSLQHVV 6HFWLRQ GLVFXVVHV KRZ D KDSSLQHVV LQGH[LVXVXDOO\PHDVXUHGDQGFRQVWUXFWHGIROORZHGE\UHVXOWV6HFWLRQRXWOLQHVWKH GDWD XVHG LQ WKLV SDSHU DQG SUHVHQWV VRPH YDOLGDWLRQV IRU WKH GDWD XVHG 6HFWLRQ SURYLGHVILQGLQJV6HFWLRQFRQFOXGHVWKHDUWLFOH
/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ
7RJHWKHU ZLWK RWKHU VRFLDO VFLHQWLVWV HFRQRPLVWV KDYH EHJXQ WR UHVHDUFK WKH SDWWHUQV LQ VXEMHFWLYH ZHOOEHLQJ GDWD (DVWHUOLQ VXJJHVWHG D WHVW IRU ZKHWKHU JUHDWHUULFKHVKDGPDGH$PHULFDQVKDSSLHU+HORRNHGDWZKHWKHUUHSRUWHGKDSSLQHVV URVH DV QDWLRQDO LQFRPH GLG +LV SDSHU FRQFOXGHV ´ LQ WKH RQH WLPH VHULHV VWXGLHG WKDWIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVVLQFHKLJKHULQFRPHZDVQRWV\VWHPDWLFDOO\DFFRPSDQLHG E\JUHDWHUKDSSLQHVVµS7KLVUHVXOWZRXOGVXJJHVWWKDWHFRQRPLFJURZWKKDGIDLOHG WR EX\ ZHOOEHLQJ$ QXPEHU RI VRFLDO REVHUYHUV KDYH SRLQWHG RXW WKDW WKH HQRUPRXV LQFUHDVHVLQLQFRPHLQWKHLQGXVWULDOGHPRFUDFLHVRYHUWKHODVWFHQWXU\GRQRWVHHPWR EH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ OHYHOV RI KDSSLQHVV ,Q D VHPLQDO SDSHU (DVWHUOLQ VKRZHG WKDW RQH FRXOG DSSURDFK WKHVH LVVXHV XVLQJ ZKDW DUH QRZ FDOOHG
´KDSSLQHVV GDWDµ QDPHO\ WKH UHVSRQVHV WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV JLYH FRQFHUQLQJ D VLPSOH ZHOOEHLQJ TXHVWLRQ VXFK DV ´$UH \RX +DSS\"µ 8VLQJ GDWD IRU WKH 86 KH VKRZHG WKDW KDSSLQHVV UHVSRQVHV LQ D SDUWLFXODU \HDU ZHUH SRVLWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK DQ LQGLYLGXDO·VLQFRPH%XWRYHUWLPHWKHDYHUDJHKDSSLQHVVUHVSRQVHZDVXQWUHQGHGLQ VSLWH RI D VKDUS LQFUHDVH LQ DYHUDJH LQFRPH OHYHOV 0RUH UHFHQWO\ %ODQFKIORZHU DQG 2VZDOGKDYHVKRZHGDVLPLODUSDWWHUQIRUWKHSHULRGIROORZLQJWKHSXEOLFDWLRQ RI(DVWHUOLQ·VSDSHUVHHDOVR(DVWHUOLQ6LPLODUILQGLQJVRUILQGLQJVZLWKYHU\
VOLJKWGHWHFWDEOHWUHQGVKDYHEHHQREVHUYHGLQDYDULHW\RIFRXQWULHVVHHIRUH[DPSOH 9HHQKRYHQ,QJOHKDUWDQG.OLQJHPDQQLQWHUDOLD
$FFRUGLQJ WR (DVWHUOLQ DYHUDJH KDSSLQHVV UHPDLQV UHODWLYHO\ FRQVWDQW RYHU WLPH LQ VSLWH RI ODUJH LQFUHDVH LQ LQFRPH SHU FDSLWD ZKLFK PHDQV WKDW ZHDOWK LQFUHDVH LQ OLIH GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ WUDQVODWH LQWR LQFUHDVHV LQ KDSSLQHVV VHH DOVR
&DPSEHOO &RQYHUVH DQG 5RGJHUV 2VZDOG (DVWHUOLQ /D\DUG FODLP WKDW WKH DYDLODEOH GDWD GR QRW HQFRXUDJH WKH LGHD WKDW HFRQRPLF JURZWK OHDGVWRJUHDWHUZHOOEHLQJ
6XEMHFWLYH ZHOOEHLQJ UHVHDUFK KDV IRFXVHG ODUJHO\ RQ GHYHORSHG HFRQRPLHV VLPSO\EHFDXVHDGHTXDWHGDWDDUHPRUHUHDGLO\DYDLODEOHIURPWKHVHFRXQWULHV)LJXUH FOHDUO\ VKRZV DQ (DVWHUOLQ JUDSK IRU WKH 86 RYHU WKH SHULRG :KLOH UHDO LQFRPH SHU FDSLWD DOPRVW GRXEOHV KDSSLQHVV VKRZV HVVHQWLDOO\ QR WUHQG )URP WKLV ILJXUHLWORRNVDVLILQGLYLGXDOVLQWKH86DUH´IODWRIWKHFXUYHµWKDWPHDQVDGGLWLRQDO LQFRPH EX\V OLWWOH LI DQ\ H[WUD KDSSLQHVV /DQH KDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WKDW RQFH DQ LQGLYLGXDO ULVHV DERYH WKH SRYHUW\ OLQH RU ´VXEVLVWHQFH OHYHOµ WKH PDLQ VRXUFH RI LQFUHDVHGZHOOEHLQJLVQRWLQFRPHEXWUDWKHUIULHQGVDQGDJRRGIDPLO\OLIH
6FLWRYVN\K\SRWKHVLVHGWKDWEH\RQGDFHUWDLQOHYHORIPDWHULDOFRPIRUW IXUWKHU ZHDOWK GRHV QRW DGG WR ZHOOEHLQJ ² DQG PD\ HYHQ GHWUDFW IURP LW ² XQOHVV LW LV DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VDWLVI\LQJ VRFLDO QHWZRUNV DQG LQWHOOHFWXDOO\ VWLPXODWLQJ OHLVXUH DFWLYLWLHV ,Q FRQWUDVW D IHZ SURPLQHQW DXWKRUV OLNH %ODQFKIORZHU 2VZDOG 'L 7HOOD HW DO DQG 6WHYHQVRQ :ROIHUV ZKR KDYH GRQH UHVHDUFK ZLWKLQFRXQWU\ FURVVVHFWLRQDO DQG SDQHO GDWD FRQFOXGHG WKDW ULVLQJ LQFRPHV ´EX\µ DGGLWLRQDOVDWLVIDFWLRQDOWKRXJKWKHPDJQLWXGHRIZLWKLQFRXQWU\FURVVVHFWLRQDOHIIHFW RILQFRPHRQVDWLVIDFWLRQLVXQGHUGLVSXWH
,W ZRXOG DSSHDU WKDW LQ WKH 86$ DQG (XURSH VRPH RWKHU IDFWRUV WKDW DIIHFW KDSSLQHVV DOVR 2VZDOG QRWHV WKDW ´KDSSLQHVV LV KLJK DPRQJ WKRVH ZKR DUH
6RXUFH 2ULJLQDOO\ IURP:RUOG 'DWDEDVH RI +DSSLQHVV DQG 3HQQ:RUOG7DEOHV EXW FLWHG IURP &ODUN )ULMWHUVDQG6KHLOGVE
)LJXUH+DSSLQHVVDQG5HDO,QFRPH3HU&DSLWDLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV
PDUULHGWKRVHZLWKKLJKLQFRPHZRPHQZKLWHVWKHZHOOHGXFDWHGWKHVHOIHPSOR\HG WKHUHWLUHGDQGWKRVHORRNLQJDIWHUWKHKRPH+DSSLQHVVLVDSSDUHQWO\8VKDSHGLQDJH PLQLPL]LQJDURXQGWKHVµ7KHVHUHVXOWVDUHFRQVLVWHQWQRWRQO\ZLWKWKHILQGLQJVRQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH RI SV\FKRORJ\ IRU LQVWDQFH VHH :LOVRQ EXW DOVR VHHP WR KROG DFURVVGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVGLIIHUHQWWLPHSHULRGVDQGHYHQUHODWHGWRGLIIHUHQWPHDVXUHV RI ZHOOEHLQJ VHH IRU H[DPSOH )UH\ 6WXW]HU IRU 6ZLW]HUODQG *HUGWKDP -RKDQQHVVRQIRU6ZHGHQ)ULMWHUVHWDOIRU*HUPDQ\
7R VROYH WKH FKDOOHQJH RI KRZ WR PHDVXUH DQ LQWDQJLEOH LQ WKLV FDVH +$33,1(66 WKH OLWHUDWXUH KDV VR IDU UHOLHG SULPDULO\ RQ VHOIUHSRUWHG PHDVXUHV RI KDSSLO\ DQG KDV HPSOR\HG VXUYH\ GDWD VHH )UH\ DQG 6WXW]HU D E &ODUN HWDO7KHOLWHUDWXUHKDVDWWHPSWHGWRILOOXWLOLW\ZLWKFRQWHQWDQGKDVDVVXPHG WKDW XWLOLW\ FDQ EH FDUGLQDOO\ PHDVXUHG LQ WKH IRUP RI VXEMHFWLYH ZHOOEHLQJ )UH\
DQG 6WXW]HU D (DVWHUOLQ ILUVW XVHG FURVVVHFWLRQDO FRPSDULVRQ DFURVV QDWLRQVZLWKGLIIHULQJOHYHOVRI*3'SHUFDSLWD
0HDVXUHPHQWRI+DSSLQHVVDQGLWV/LPLWDWLRQ
,Q WKLQNLQJ DERXW KDSSLQHVV PHDVXUHPHQW WKHUH LV QR REYLRXV DOWHUQDWLYH WR VHOIUHSRUWHG GDWD &RQYHQWLRQDOO\ VXUYH\ HYLGHQFH KDV LWV OLPLWDWLRQV RI FRXUVH DQG ZH PD\ ZRQGHU ZKHWKHU WKHUH LV UHDOO\ DQ\ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ KRZ KDSS\
SHRSOHVD\WKH\DUHDQGKRZKDSS\WKH\DFWXDOO\IHHO'HVSLWHDODUJHOLPLWDWLRQWRWKH KDSSLQHVV PHDVXUHPHQW WKHUH LV D YDVW OLWHUDWXUH RQ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI VXEMHFWLYH ZHOOEHLQJDQGSV\FKRORJLVWVKDYHORQJEHHQHOLFLWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQE\XVLQJUHVSRQVHV WRTXHVWLRQQDLUHV
)RU WKH XVXDO XQLWURRW PHDVXUHPHQW ZH FDQ KDUGO\ UHJUHVV KDSSLQHVV RQ WUHQGHG YDULDEOHV VXFK DV *URVV 'RPHVWLF 3URGXFW 7KH SDSHU H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK HTXDWLRQV LQ ZKLFK WKHUH DUH L \HDU GXPPLHV LL FRXQWU\VSHFLILF WLPH WUHQGV DQG LLL FKDQJHLQ*'3 YDULDEOHV 7KH VHFRQG FRQFHSWXDO SUREOHP LV WKDW YDULDEOHV VXFK DV *'3 SHU FDSLWD XQHPSOR\PHQW DQG LQIODWLRQ DUH QRW H[RJHQRXV 7KHVH YDULDEOHV DUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ SROLWLFLDQV· FKRLFHV WKHLU FKRLFHV DUH VKDSHG E\ UHHOHFWLRQ SUREDELOLWLHV WKRVH SUREDELOLWLHV LQ WXUQ FDQ GHSHQG RQ WKH IHHOLQJ RI FRQWHQWPHQW DPRQJ D FRXQWU\·V FLWL]HQV$ IXUWKHU SRVVLEOH VRXUFH RI VLPXOWDQHLW\ LV WKDW KDSSLHU SHRSOHPD\ZRUNKDUGHUDQGWKXVSURGXFHPRUHRXWSXWDQGWKLVLVQRWVWUDLJKWIRUZDUG WR ILQG EHOLHYDEOH PDFURHFRQRPLF LQVWUXPHQWV WKDW FDQ LGHQWLI\ WKH ZHOOEHLQJ HTXDWLRQ ,QVWHDG WKH SDSHU H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW IRUPV RI ODJ VWUXFWXUHV WR DWWHPSW WR VHH LI PRYHPHQWV LQ PDFURHFRQRPLF IRUFHV OHDG ODWHU RQ WR PRYHPHQWV
6HH)RUG\FHDQG.RQRZDQGDQG(DUOH\IRUH[FHOOHQWOLWHUDWXUHVXUYH\VRQWKHKLVWRU\RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQV XVLQJ VXEMHFWLYH KDSSLQHVV PHDVXUHV 0HDVXUHPHQW RI VXEMHFWLYH ZHOOEHLQJ KDV EHHQ RQJRLQJLQSV\FKRORJ\DWOHDVWVLQFH:LOVRQ
LQ ZHOOEHLQJ 'L7HOOD 0DF&XOORFK DQG 2VZDOG 0RUHRYHU LQ PHDVXUHPHQW ZLWKWKHFURVVVHFWLRQDOGDWDLWFDQ·WFRQWUROIRUFXOWXUDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOIDFWRUVWKDW FRYDU\ ZLWK QDWLRQDO LQFRPH VXFK DV LQFUHDVHG IUHHGRP LPSURYHG SXEOLF VHUYLFHV DQGSRVVLEOHFXOWXUDOELDVHVWRZDUGKDSSLQHVV
'DWD&ROOHFWLRQDQG0RGHOOLQJ 'DWD&ROOHFWLRQ
7KHPDMRUGDWDVRXUFHIRUWKLVWKHVLVLV,QGRQHVLDQ)DPLO\/LIH6XUYH\,)O6 IURP5$1'&RUSRUDWLRQLQ6DQWD0RQLFD86$7KHGDWDLVORQJLWXGLQDOVXUYH\GDWD DWKRXVHKROGDQGFRPPXQLW\OHYHO7RLQYHVWLJDWHWKHVRXUFHVRIKDSSLQHVVWKHIRXUWK ZDYH RI WKH ,QGRQHVLD )DPLO\ /LIH 6XUYH\ ,)O6 LV XVHG EHFDXVH DYDLODELOLW\ RI WKH TXHVWLRQ DERXW UHVSRQGHQWV· KDSSLQHVV 7KH ,)O6 FRQVLVWV RI WZR VXUYH\V ² RQH KRXVHKROG DQG RQH FRPPXQLW\ DQG IDFLOLWLHV 7KH GDWD IRU WKLV VWXG\ LV FRQVWUXFWHG EDVHG RQ YDULDEOHV WKDW ZHUH FRPELQHG IURP WZR GDWD VHWV $IWHU FRPELQHG DQG FOHDQHGWKHGDWDRIUHVSRQGHQWVDJH\HDUVROGDQGPRUHZHUHDQDO\]HG 7KLV VWXG\ XVH GDWD RQ DJH HGXFDWLRQ KHDOWK DVVHW PDUULDJH KRXVHKROG H[SHQGLWXUH DQG VH[ ZKLFK DUH GHWHUPLQHG LQ KDSSLQHVV 0HDVXULQJ LQ QDWLRQDO OHYHO WU\ WR DGGUHVVLQJ ZKDW GHWHUPLQHG KDSSLQHVV LQ ,QGRQHVLD DQG KRZ VWURQJ LWV GHWHUPLQDQWLQWKHLUDFWLYLW\
'DWD0RGHOLQJ
7R LQGHQWLI\ WKH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI KDSSLQHVV ZH DGRSW D KDSSLQHVV PRGHO IXQFWLRQFRPHVIURP%ODQFKIORZHUDQG2VZDOGLQWKHIROORZLQJIRUP
U KX\]WH
ZH WDNH WKH WHUPV ZHOOEHLQJ XWLOLW\ KDSSLQHVV OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ DQG ZHOIDUH WR EH LQWHUFKDQJHDEOH DQG PHDVXUHG E\ WKH DQVZHU WR D TXHVWLRQ VXFK DV WKDW DVNHG LQ WKH ,QGRQHVLDQ)DPLO\/LIH6XUYH\,)O6%HFDXVHWKHUHDUHVRPHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV WKDWQRWFDSWXUHGLQWKHPRGHOVVRZHDGRSWLWDQGEHFRPHDIROORZLQJIRUP
U K>XHGXFDWLRQKHDOWKOQDVVHWPDUULDJHDJHOQH[SHQVH[H@
:KHUHUGHQRWHVLQGLYLGXDOVHOIUHSRUWHGKDSSLQHVVZKHWKHUKDSS\RUQRW
K GHQRWHV D QRQGLIIHUHQWLDEOH IXQFWLRQ UHODWLQJ WR DFWXDO ZHOOEHLQJ WR UHSRUWHG ZHOOEHLQJ
XGHQRWHVWKHLQGLYLGXDO·VWUXHZHOOEHLQJRUXWLOLW\
HGXFDWLRQ GHQRWHV LQGLYLGXDO·V KLJKHVW HGXFDWLRQ OHYHO :H GLYLGH HGXFDWLRQ LQWR WZR JURXSV EDVLF HGXFDWLRQ DQG KLJK HGXFDWLRQ ´%DVLF HGXFDWLRQµ LQFOXGHV HOHPHQWDU\ VFKRRO DQG MXQLRU KLJK VFKRRO ´+LJK HGXFDWLRQµ LQFOXGHV VHQLRU KLJK
VFKRRODQGFROOHJHXQLYHUVLW\
+HDOWKGHQRWHVLQGLYLGXDO·VKHDOWKVWDWXV:LWKUHIHUHQFHWRKHDOWKWKHFULWLFDOLVVXH LVZKHWKHUVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVLQKHDOWKKDYHDODVWLQJHIIHFWRQKDSSLQHVV
OQDVVHW GHQRWHV D ORJDULWKPLF QDWXUDO OQ RI WRWDO DVVHWV WKDW UHSUHVHQW D SUR[\ RI WKH ZHDOWK RI HDFK KRXVHKROG:KDW LV WKH WRWDO" YDOXH RI MHZHOU\ VDYLQJV ODQG YHKLFOHVDQGRWKHUDVVHWRIKRXVHKROGV
0DUULDJHGHQRWHV PDUULDJH VWDWXV RI HDFK LQGLYLGXDO 5HJDUGLQJ WKH HIIHFW RI PDUULDJH DQG GLVVROXWLRQ RI PDUULDJH LW FDQ EH DVVXPH WKDW HVWDEOLVKLQJ FORVH LQWLPDWH UHODWLRQV RI WKH VRUW UHSUHVHQWHG E\ PDUULDJH ZRXOG W\SLFDOO\ PDNH WKH SDUWQHUVLQVXFKDUHODWLRQVKLSKDSSLHUDQGPRUHVDWLVILHGZLWKOLIHLQJHQHUDO
$JHGHQRWHVDJHRIHDFKLQGLYLGXDO
7KHWRWDOH[SHQGLWXUHOQH[SHQGHQRWHVORJDULWKPLFQDWXUDOOQRIWRWDOFRQVXPSWLRQ RIKRXVHKROG7KLVYDULDEOHDFWVDVDSUR[\RILQFRPHRIKRXVHKROG
6H[GHQRWHVJHQGHURIHDFKLQGLYLGXDOV
7KH HUURU WHUPH VXEVXPH DPRQJ RWKHU IDFWRUV WKH LQDELOLW\ RI KXPDQ EHLQJV WR FRPPXQLFDWHDFFXUDWHO\WKHLUKDSSLQHVVOHYHO
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·V SHUFHSWLRQV DQG UHSRUWLQJ RI VDWLVIDFWLRQ RU KDSSLQHVV LQ OLIH 7KLV LV REYLRXVO\ H[SUHVVHG E\ 0DQVNL ZLWK WKH LQIOXHQFH RI FKDQJHV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ WKH FRPPXQLW\ XQHPSOR\PHQW RU FULPH ZLOO DIIHFW WKH UHSRUWHG OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ DW WKH KRXVHKROG OHYHO GLUHFWO\ UDWKHU WKDQ LQGLUHFWO\ DV ZH KDYH SRUWUD\HGWKHPWKURXJKRXWRXUDQDO\VLV
0RUH LPSRUWDQWO\ FURVVVHFWLRQDO VWXGLHV RQ KDSSLQHVV PD\ EH XQUHOLDEOH LI LQGLYLGXDOV· VXEMHFWLYH UHVSRQVHV DUH GRPLQDWHG E\ ODWHQW SHUVRQDO SV\FKRORJLFDO GLIIHUHQFHV 3RZGWKDYHH 7KH FRQFHUQ LV WKDW FURVVVHFWLRQDO HTXDWLRQV PLJKW EH ELDVHG DQ\ WLPH XQREVHUYHG SHUVRQDOLW\ WUDLWV DUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK REVHUYDEOH VRFLRHFRQRPLF IDFWRUV XQHPSOR\PHQW RU HGXFDWLRQ DQG VXEMHFWLYH ZHOOEHLQJ UHVSRQVHV $V D UHVXOW LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI FURVVVHFWLRQDO HVWLPDWHV VKRXOG DOZD\V EH WUHDWHG ZLWK FDUH NHHSLQJ LQ PLQG /D\DUG·V REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW ZH QHHG
D´UHYROXWLRQµLQDFDGHPLDZKHUHHYHU\VRFLDOVFLHQWLVWVKRXOGDWWHPSWWRXQGHUVWDQG WKHGHWHUPLQDQWVRIKDSSLQHVVDQGLWVKRXOGEHKDSSLQHVVZKLFKLVWKHH[SOLFLWDLPRI JRYHUQPHQWLQWHUYHQWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQDO'HILQLWLRQ
,Q WKLV SDSHU ZH HVWLPDWH ZKDW PD\ EH WKH ILUVW HFRQRPHWULF KDSSLQHVV HTXDWLRQV LQ ZKLFK HGXFDWLRQ WRWDO FRQVXPSWLRQ VH[ DJH PDULWDO VWDWXV DQG DVVHW WKDW WKH\ KDYH DUH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH /LNH WKH UHVW RI WKH UHFHQW ZHOOEHLQJ OLWHUDWXUH ZH VWXG\ WKH QXPEHUV WKDW SHRSOH UHSRUW ZKHQ DVNHG TXHVWLRQV DERXW KRZ KDSS\WKH\IHHOZLWKWKHLUOLIH7RLGHQWLI\WKHVRXUFHRIKDSSLQHVVZHFODVVLI\YDULDEOHV DVWZR)LUVWDUHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVVHFRQGDUHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV+HUHWKH\DUH
Dependent Variables
Description Level of Measurement
and Data Management Happiness This variable measure respondents’ subjective well being
through indentify their self perception on happiness. Whether they are feeling happy or not.
Nominal 1 = Happy 0 = Not Happy Age Age is related to maturity, experience and the way to see
live. Age also related to physical condition of respondent.
Ratio Education This variable refers highest formal school attended by
respondents. In Indonesia, basic education is nine years education (graduate from junior high school or equivalent).
Nominal
1 = have minimum basic education
0 = not achieve basic education Health This variable is self perception of respondents’ health status.
It measure what is respondents’ feeling about their health.
Nominal 1 = Healthy 0 = Not Healthy Asset This variable provide total value of non-business assets (e.g.,
land, livestock, jewelry), as well as asset ownership and ownership shares. To control variation between households, logistic natural are being used for regression analysis.
Ratio
Marriage Formal Marital status related to secure relation between couples. This relation are protected by law and should provide more stable relation.
Nominal
1 = Formal Marriage 0 = Unmarried, Non formal marriage and ever married Household
Expenditure
This variable combine expenditures for a variety of food and nonfood goods and services, including foods purchased and the value of foods consumed from self-production or transfers in the last week, personal care and household items bought during the last month, and durable goods bought in the last year. Quantities and purchase prices for the last purchase of several staples were also collected for various foods. To control variation between households, logistic natural are being used for regression analysis.
Ratio
Gender Gender related to difference physical condition between male and female. In some culture, gender related to difference gender role.
Nominal 1 = Male 0 = Female
0HWKRGRORJ\
,Q WKLV SDSHU ZH XVH WZR PHWKRGV RI DQDO\VLV HPSOR\HG LQ WKLV VWXG\ )LUVW GHVFULSWLYH VWDWLVWLFV GHVFULEHG KRZ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ OHYHO LQGLYLGXDO DQG KRXVHKROG WKH GHVFULSWLYH VWDWLVWLFV FRYHU XQLYDULDWH DQG ELYDULDWH DQDO\VLV 6HFRQG LQIHUHQFH VWDWLVWLFVFRYHUELYDULDWHDQGPXOWLYDULDWHDQDO\VLV7KHPXOWLYDULDWHDQDO\VLVIRFXVHVRQ H[DPLQLQJWKHHIIHFWRILQWHUYHQWLRQDQGLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVRQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV /RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQLVDPDMRUDSSURDFKIRUPXOWLYDULDWHDQDO\VLV
)LQGLQJV
7DEOH'HVFULSWLYH6WDWLVWLFV
9DULDEOH 2EV 0HDQ 6WG'HY 0LQ 0D[
+DSS\
(GXFDWLRQ
+HDOWK
OQDVVHW
PDUULDJH
OQH[SHQ
$JH
*HQGHU
7KHGDWD7DEOHVKRZVWKDWDERXWPRUHWKDQRIUHVSRQGHQWVIHHOKDSS\
LQWKHLUOLIH,WPHDQVWKDWDOPRVWRXWRI,QGRQHVLDQLVKDSS\LQWKHLUGDLO\OLIHDQG WKHORZHUVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKLVYDULDQFHLVFRQVWDQWDQGJRRGWRXVHDV YDULDEOHLQRXUGDWDPRGHOLQJ
,Q RXU ILQGLQJV ZH FDPH DFURVV WKDW HGXFDWLRQ LV RQH RI WKH EDVLF REMHFWLYHV RI GHYHORSPHQW WKH\ DUH LPSRUWDQW HQGV LQ WKHPVHOYHV (GXFDWLRQ LV HVVHQWLDO IRU DVDWLVI\LQJDQGUHZDUGLQJOLIHERWKDUHIXQGDPHQWDOWRWKHEURDGHUQRWLRQRIH[SDQGHG KXPDQ FDSDELOLWLHV WKDW OLH DW WKH KHDUW RI WKH PHDQLQJ RI GHYHORSPHQW$W WKH VDPH WLPH HGXFDWLRQ SOD\V D NH\ UROH LQ WKH DELOLW\ RI D GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWU\ WR DEVRUE PRGHUQ WHFKQRORJ\ DQG WR GHYHORS WKH FDSDFLW\ IRU VHOIVXVWDLQLQJ JURZWK DQG GHYHORSPHQW,WLVLQWHUHVWLQJVLQFHRQO\RIUHVSRQGHQWVDWWHQGKLJKHUWKDQEDVLF HGXFDWLRQWKDWPHDQVJRYHUQPHQWQHHGWRLPSURYHIRUWKHEDVLFHGXFDWLRQVLQFHZLWK KLJKHU HGXFDWLRQ HTXLSSHG SHRSOH FDQ EH HDVLO\ FRQQHFWHG LQ WKH JOREDOL]HG ZRUOG DQGVWDWXVRISHUVRQDOLW\LVKLJKO\UHZDUGHG
+HDOWK LV FHQWUDO RI KXPDQ EHLQJ DQG RQH PDMRU FRPSRQHQWV RI KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW 7KH GDWD VKRZV WKDW RQO\ RI UHVSRQGHQW SHUFHLYHG WKDW WKH\ DUH
KHDOWK\ %HVLGHV VHOI SHUFHSWLRQ KHDOWK\ IHHOLQJ LV WKHRUHWLFDOO\ GHWHUPLQHG DOVR E\
LQWHQVLW\ RI SXEOLF KHDOWK VXSSRUW QRW RQO\ LQ XUEDQ EXW DOVR LQ UXUDO DUHD$QG ORZHU SULFHV RI SUHVFULSWLRQ VR SHRSOH FRXOG UHDFK WKHLU KHDOWK\ OLIH PRUH WKDQ EHIRUH /RZOHYHORIKHDOWK\SHUFHSWLRQVKRZWKDWWKHUHVSRQGHQWVGRQRWIHHOVHFXUHGRQWKHLU KHDOWK7R LQFUHDVH WKH OHYHO RI KDSSLQHVV ,QGRQHVLDQ JRYHUQPHQW PDNHV JUHDW HIIRUW LQ KHDOWK SROLF\ WR LPSURYH WKH QXWULWLRQ DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH QDWLRQV QRWRQO\WRWKHULFKEXWDOVRWRWKHORZLQFRPHJURXS
$GGLWLRQDOO\ RI UHVSRQGHQWV KDYH IRUPDO PDUULDJH WKH UHVW RI WKHP DUH HYHU PDUULHG GLG QRW PDUULHG RU ZLGRZHG RI UHVSRQGHQWV DUH PDOH DQG RIWKHPDUHIHPDOH0LQLPXPDJHRIUHVSRQGHQWVLV\HDUVROGDQGPD[LPXPRILW \HDUVROG 0DMRU JURXS RI ,QGRQHVLDQ KDV UHSRUWHG KDSS\ LQ WKHLU PDUULDJH OLIH LQ WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH FRXSOH IHHOV PRUH VHFXUHG LQ WKH OLIH ZLWK DQRWKHU
´KHOSHUµZKHQHYHUDQ\EDUULHUVHQFRXQWHUHGLQOLIH 7DEOH&RUUHODWLRQ
KDSS\ HGXFDWLRQ KHDOWK /QDVVHW PDUULDJH /QH[SHQ DJH
+DSS\
(GXFDWLRQ
+HDOWK
OQDVVHW
PDUULDJH
OQH[SHQ
$JH
*HQGHU
)URPWKHFRUUHODWLRQUHVXOWVKRZQLQ7DEOHLWLVFOHDUO\WREHVHHQWKDWDJHLV WKH KLJKHVW FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK EHLQJ KDSS\ ,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ VLQFH ZH DQDO\]HG WKH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ DJH DQG KDSSLQHVV LV QHJDWLYH7KH VHFRQG KLJKHVW DUH HGXFDWLRQ ZLWK WKH SRVLWLYH YDOXH *HQGHU LV YDULDEOHV ZLWK ORZHVW FRUUHODWLRQ WR KDSSLQHVV +HDOWK DVVHW PDUULDJH DQG H[SHQGLWXUH KDYH WKH FRUUHODWLRQ YDOXHV WR KDSSLQHVV EHWZHHQHGXFDWLRQ·VDQGJHQGHU·V
7DEOH6RXUFHRI+DSSLQHVV0RGHO
7DEOH6RXUFHRI+DSSLQHVV0RGHO
7KHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQRQ7DEOHDQG7DEOHFRQVLVWHQWO\VKRZWKDWDJHLVRQH RIPDMRUVRXUFHRIKDSSLQHVV7KHRGGUDWLRVKRZVWKDWWKHUHVSRQGHQWVZLWKROGHUDJH OHVV OLNHO\ EHLQJ KDSS\ UDWKHU WKDQ \RXQJ UHVSRQGHQW 2GG 5DWLR ZLWK FRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDO,WPLJKWZHUHLQIOXHQFHGE\SV\FKRORJLFDOVLWXDWLRQRIKXPDQEHLQJ 7KH UHVSRQGHQWV ZLWK ZKR DWWHQGHG PRUH WKDQ EDVLF HGXFDWLRQ VHQLRU KLJK VFKRRO RU KLJKHU DUH PRUH OLNHO\ EHLQJ KDSS\ UDWKHU WKDQ UHVSRQGHQW ZKR RQO\
DFKLHYH EDVLF HGXFDWLRQ MXQLRU KLJK VFKRRO RU ORZHU 2GG 5DWLR ZLWK FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDO *RYHUQPHQW FRXOG KDYH PRUH DWWHQWLRQ HGXFDWLRQ WR LQFUHDVH RI WKH SHRSOH·V KDSSLQHVV EHFDXVH DOWKRXJK RQO\ RI UHVSRQGHQWV DWWHQGHG KLJKHU WKDQEDVLFHGXFDWLRQWKHYDULDEOHKDYHVLJQLILFDQWWRUHVSRQGHQWV·KDSSLQHVV
7KH UHVSRQGHQWV ZLWK ZKR IHHO KHDOWK\ DUH PRUH OLNHO\ EHLQJ KDSS\ UDWKHU WKDQUHVSRQGHQWVZKRDUHQRWIHHOLQJKHDOWK\2GG5DWLRZLWKFRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDO$OWKRXJK IURP WKH GDWD PLJKW SHRSOH EH KDSS\ HYHQ WKH\ DUH QRW IHHOLQJ KHDOWK\ JRYHUQPHQW QHHG WR SD\ PRUH DWWHQWLRQ LQ SURYLGH EDVLF VHUYLFH IRU KHDOWK VLQFH RQO\ RI UHVSRQGHQWV IHHOLQJ KHDOWK\ DQG LW VHHPV WKDW LPSURYLQJ KHDOWK VLWXDWLRQZLOOHIIHFWLYHO\LQFUHDVHKDSSLQHVV
$VVHWRZQHUVKLSLVRQHRIVRXUFHRIKDSSLQHVV5HJUHVVLRQFRHIILFLHQW ZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDO3HUVRQZLWKKLJKHUYDOXHVRIDVVHWDUHPRUHOLNHO\WR EHKDSS\UDWKHUWKDQSHRSOHZLWKORZHUYDOXHRIDVVHW,WPLJKWKDSSHQEHFDXVHSHRSOH ZLWK VXIILFLHQW DVVHW PLJKW IHHO PRUH VHFXUH WKDQ SHRSOH ZKR KDV LQVXIILFLHQW RQH
$VVHWFDQEHXVHGDVLQYHVWPHQWDVZHOODVSUHYHQWLRQ
&RQVLVWHQW ZLWK 2VZDOG·V 7KH UHVSRQGHQWV ZLWK ZKR KDYH IRUPDO PDUULDJH DUH PRUH OLNHO\ EHLQJ KDSS\ UDWKHU WKDQ UHVSRQGHQWV ZKR DUH QRW PDUULHG ,W LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW D FRXSOH ZLWK IRUPDO PDUULDJH DUH KDSSLHU WKDQ VLQJOH PD\ EH LWV UHDVRQ EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH FRXSOH WKDW WKHLU OLIH FRXOG VKDUH LQ D SDLU ² XSV DQG GRZQV LQOLIHUDWKHUWKDQLIKHLVDVLQJOHKLVOLIHZLOOEHGRQHDQGILQLVKHGE\KLPVHOIVROHO\
$GGLWLRQDOO\IRUPDOPDUULDJHVSURYLGHOHJDODQGVRFLDOSURWHFWLRQPRUHWKDQLQIRUPDO PDUULDJH
([SHQGLWXUHLVDOVRRQHRIVRXUFHRIKDSSLQHVV5HJUHVVLRQFRHIILFLHQW ZLWKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDO:HXVHWKLVYDULDEOHWRDGGUHVVLQJKRZPXFKPRQH\
GLGPHPEHUVSHQWE\KRXVHKROGV,QWHUHVWLQJO\WKHUHJUHVVLRQFRHIILFLHQWLVQHJDWLYH LW PHDQV SHUVRQ ZLWK KLJKHU H[SHQGLWXUH DUH OHVV OLNHO\ WR KDSS\ ,W PLJKW FDXVHG E\VRXUFHVRIH[SHQGLWXUHLWVHOI,IWKHSHRSOHKDYHWRERUURZPRQH\WRIXOILOOWKHLUQHHG RUWKH\KDYHWRVSHQGDORWRIPRQH\EHFDXVHRILQIODWLRQWKH\PLJKWEHXQKDSS\
,QWHUHVWLQJO\ JHQGHU GLIIHUHQFHV GLG QRW DIIHFW WR UHVSRQGHQWV· KDSSLQHVV ,WLVGLIIHUHQWWRWKHUHVXOWIURPVWXGLHVWKDWZDVFRQGXFWHGE\2VZDOGDW(XURSH DQG86,QWKLVVWXG\ZHFDQFRQFOXGHWKDWJHQGHUGLIIHUHQFHVIHPDOHRUPDOHGRHVQ·W DIIHFWRQKDSSLQHVV7KHUHLVQRVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQJHQGHUDQGKDSSLQHVV 7KLV PLJKW UHIOHFW D JRRG VRFLDO EDODQFH LQ VRFLHW\ ,W PLJKW UHIOHFW FXOWXUDO YDOXHV
YDOLGDWLQJH[SUHVVLRQRIVDWLVIDFWLRQRUGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQDERXWRQH·VOLIHVLWXDWLRQ$VZLWK VHYHUDORWKHUYDULDEOHVWKHUHLVPXFKIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQZKLFKFRXOGEHFDUULHGRXW WRH[SORUHWKLVLVVXHIXUWKHU
&RQFOXVLRQ
%DVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV WKHUH DUH VRPH YDULDEOHV WKDW DUH LQGLFDWHG DV VRXUFHV RIKDSSLQHVVIRU,QGRQHVLDQ7KHYDULDEOHVDUHDJHHGXFDWLRQKHDOWKDVVHWPDUULDJH H[SHQGLWXUH$QGWKHUHLVDOVRYDULDEOHZKLFKKDYHQ·WLPSDFWRQ,QGRQHVLDQKDSSLQHVV ZKLFKLVJHQGHUGLIIHUHQFHV
:H IRXQG WKDW RXU UHVXOWV UHFHLYH W\SLFDO UHVSRQVH IURP WKH ,QGRQHVLDQ RQ
´ZHDOWK DQG KDSSLQHVVµ UHVHDUFK )URP WKH HPSLULFDO UHVXOWV WKH OLYLQJ EHKDYLRU DQG SDWWHUQ RI KDSSLQHVV LQ ,QGRQHVLD LV FRQVLVWHQWO\ ZHOO 7KLV LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKRVH YDULDEOHV DUH EDVLF QHHG IRU ,QGRQHVLDQ ZKLFK LV LPSRUWDQW LQ RXWSXW SHU FDSLWD WKDW FRQWULEXWHWRHFRQRPLFJURZWK
7KLVQDWLRQFRXOGKDYHPRUHDWWHQWLRQHGXFDWLRQDQGKHDOWKWRLQFUHDVHRIWKH SHRSOH·VKDSSLQHVVEHFDXVHDOWKRXJKRQO\RIUHVSRQGHQWVIHHOKHDOWK\DQGRI UHVSRQGHQWVDWWHQGHGKLJKHUWKDQEDVLFHGXFDWLRQERWKRIYDULDEOHVDUHKDYHVLJQLILFDQW WRUHVSRQGHQWV·KDSSLQHVV
3ROLWLFDODUUDQJHPHQWVDOVRPDWWHU0XFKRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHILQGVWKDWERWKWUXVW DQG IUHHGRP KDYH SRVLWLYH HIIHFWV RQ KDSSLQHVV +HOOLZHOO /D\DUG
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² VXFK DV DGDSWDWLRQDQGFRSLQJGXULQJHFRQRPLFFULVHV²EXWGRQRWWUDQVODWHLQWRYLDEOHSROLF\
UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
+DSSLQHVVHFRQRPLFVDOVRRSHQVDILHOGRIUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVZKLFKVWLOOQHHG WR EH DGGUHVVHG 7KHVH LQFOXGH WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI ZHOOEHLQJ ILQGLQJV IRU QDWLRQDO LQGLFDWRUVDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKSDWWHUQVWKHHIIHFWVRIKDSSLQHVVRQEHKDYLRXUVXFKDV ZRUNHIIRUWFRQVXPSWLRQDQGLQYHVWPHQWDQGWKHHIIHFWVRQSROLWLFDOEHKDYLRXU,QWKH FDVH RI WKH ODWWHU VXUYH\V RI XQKDSSLQHVV RU IUXVWUDWLRQ PD\ EH XVHIXO IRU JDXJLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU VRFLDO XQUHVW LQ YDULRXV FRQWH[WV ,Q RUGHU WR DQVZHU PDQ\ RI WKHVH TXHVWLRQV UHVHDUFKHUV QHHG PRUH DQG EHWWHU TXDOLW\ ZHOOEHLQJ GDWD SDUWLFXODUO\
SDQHO GDWD ZKLFK DOORZV IRU WKH FRUUHFWLRQ RI XQREVHUYHG SHUVRQDOLW\ WUDLWV DQG
FRUUHODWHGPHDVXUHPHQWHUURUVDVZHOODVIRUEHWWHUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHGLUHFWLRQRIFDXVDOLW\
IRU H[DPSOH IURP FRQWH[WXDO YDULDEOHV OLNH LQFRPH RU KHDOWK WR KDSSLQHVV YHUVXV WKHRWKHUZD\DURXQG7KHVHDUHPDMRUFKDOOHQJHVLQPRVWKDSSLQHVVVWXGLHV+RSHIXOO\
WKHFRPELQDWLRQRIEHWWHUGDWDDQGLQFUHDVHGVRSKLVWLFDWLRQLQHFRQRPHWULFWHFKQLTXHV ZLOODOORZHFRQRPLVWVWREHWWHUDGGUHVVWKHVHTXHVWLRQVLQWKHIXWXUH
)LQDOO\ IRU WKH IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK ZH QHHG WR FRQVLGHU FRQGXFWLQJ VSHFLILF VWXG\ RQ WKH HIIHFW RI HGXFDWLRQ WR KDSSLQHVV DQG LGHQWLI\LQJ D VSHFLILF LPSDFW RI HGXFDWLRQ OHYHO W\SH RI HGXFDWLRQ DQG JRYHUQPHQW·V LQWHUYHQWLRQ LQ HGXFDWLRQ VHFWRU WR SHRSOH·V KDSSLQHVV$GGLWLRQDOO\ LW ZLOO EH DOVR LQWHUHVWLQJ LGHQWLI\ WKH HIIHFW RI VSHFLILFKHDOWKSUREOHPDVZHOODVSXEOLFKHDOWKVHUYLFHWRSHRSOH·VKDSSLQHVV
5HIHUHQFHV
%ODQFKIORZHU '* DQG 2VZDOG$- :HOOEHLQJ RYHU 7LPH LQ %ULWDLQ DQG
WKH86$-RXUQDORI3XEOLF(FRQRPLFV
&DPSEHOO$&RQYHUVH3(DQG5RGJHUV:/7KH4XDOLW\RI$PHULFDQ/LIH 3HUFHSWLRQV(YDOXDWLRQVDQG6DWLVIDFWLRQV5XVVHOO6DJH)RXQGDWLRQ1HZ<RUN
&ODUN $ )ULMWHUV 3 DQG 6FKLHOGV 0$ D 5HODWLYH ,QFRPH +DSSLQHVV DQG 8WLOLW\ $Q ([SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH (DVWHUOLQ 3UDGR[ DQG 2WKHU 3X]]OHV
-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF/LWHUDWXUH
&ODUN$ )ULMWHUV 3 DQG 6FKLHOGV 0$ E 5HODWLYH ,QFRPH +DSSLQHVV DQG 8WLOLW\$Q([SODQDWLRQIRUWKH(DVWHUOLQ3DUDGR[DQG2WKHU3X]]OHV-RXUQDORI
(FRQRPLF/LWHUDWXUH
'L 7HOOD 5 +DLVNHQ'H1HZ - DQG 0DF&XOORFK 5 +DSSLQHVV$GDSWDWLRQ WR,QFRPHDQGWR6WDWXVLQDQ,QGLYLGXDO3DQHO1%(5:RUNLQJ3DSHU 'L 7HOOD 5 0DF&XOORFK 5 DQG 2VZDOG $- 7KH 0DFURHFRQRPLFV RI +DSSLQHVV5HYLHZRI(FRQRPLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFV
(DVWHUOLQ 5$ 'RHV (FRQRPLF *URZWK ,PSURYH WKH +XPDQ /RW" 6RPH (PSLULFDO(YLGHQFH,Q1DWLRQVDQG+RXVHKROGVLQ(FRQRPLF*URZWK(VVD\V LQ+RQRXURI0RVHV$EUDPRYLW]HGV3$'DYLGDQG0:5HGHU$FDGHPLF 3UHVV1HZ<RUN
(DVWHUOLQ5$:LOO5DLVLQJWKH,QFRPHVRI$OO,PSURYHWKH+DSSLQHVVRI$OO"
-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF%HKDYLRXUDQG2UJDQL]DWLRQV
(DVWHUOLQ 5$ 7RZDUGV D %HWWHU 7KHRU\ RI +DSSLQHVV LQ (FRQRPLFV 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH ¶¶7KH 3DUDGR[HV RI +DSSLQHVV LQ
(FRQRPLFV··0DUFK0LODQ
)HUUHUL&DUERQHOO$ DQG )ULMWHUV 3 +RZ ,PSRUWDQW LV 0HWKRGRORJ\ IRU WKH(VWLPDWHVRI'HWHUPLQDQWVRI+DSSLQHVV"(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO )RUG\FH0$5HYLHZRI5HVHDUFKRQWKH+DSSLQHVV0HDVXUHV$V,QGH[
RI+DSSLQHVVDQG0HQWDO+HDOWK6RFLDO,QGLFDWRUV5HVHDUFK
)UH\ %6 DQG 6WXW]HU$ +DSSLQHVV (FRQRP\ DQG ,QVWLWXWLRQV(FRQRPLF
-RXUQDO
)UH\ %6 DQG 6WXW]HU$ D+DSSLQHVV DQG (FRQRPLFV 3ULQFHWRQ 3ULQFHWRQ 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
)UH\ %6 DQG 6WXW]HU$ E :KDW &DQ (FRQRPLVWV /HDUQ IURP +DSSLQHVV 5HVHDUFK"-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF/LWHUDWXUH
)ULMWHUV 3 +DLVNHQ'H1HZ -3 DQG 6KLHOGV 0$ 0RQH\ GRHV 0DWWHU (YLGHQFHIURP,QFUHDVLQJ5HDO,QFRPHDQG/LIH6DWLVIDFWLRQLQ(DVW*HUPDQ\
IROORZLQJ5HXQLILFDWLRQ$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
*HUGWKDP 8* DQG -RKDQQHVVRQ 0 7KH 5HODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ +DSSLQHVV +HDOWK DQG 6RFLRHFRQRPLF )DFWRUV 5HVXOWV EDVHG RQ 6ZHGLVK 0LFUR 'DWD
-RXUQDORI6RFLR(FRQRPLFV
*UDKDP & DQG )HOWRQ$ 'RHV ,QHTXDOLW\ 0DWWHU WR ,QGLYLGXDO :HOIDUH $Q ([SORUDWLRQ %DVHG RQ +DSSLQHVV 6XUYH\V LQ /DWLQ$PHULFD &HQWHU RQ 6RFLDO DQG (FRQRPLF '\QDPLFV :RUNLQJ 3DSHUV 6HULHV 1R :DVKLQJWRQ '&7KH%URRNLQJV,QVWLWXWLRQ
*UXEHU - DQG 0XOODLQDWKDQ 6 'R &LJDUHWWH7D[HV 0DNH 6PRNHUV +DSSLHU"
:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R&DPEULGJH0$1%(5
+HOOLZHOO - :HOOEHLQJ DQG 6RFLDO &DSLWDO 'RHV 6XLFLGH 3RVH D 3X]]OH"
8QSXEOLVKHGPDQXVFULSW9DQFRXYHU8QLYHUVLW\RI%ULWLVK&ROXPELD
,QJOHKDUW5DQG.OLQJHPDQQ+'*HQHV&XOWXUHDQG+DSSLQHVV0,73UHVV .RQRZ-DQG(DUOH\-7KH+HGRQLF3DUDGR[,V+RPR(FRQRPLFXV+DSSLHU"
0LPHR
/DQH 5( 7KH /RVV +DSSLQHVV LQ 0DUNHW 'HPRFUDFLHV <DOH ,636 6HULHV 1HZ+DYHQDQG/RQGRQ<DOH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
/D\DUG55HWKLQNLQJ3XEOLF(FRQRPLFVWKH,PSOLFDWLRQVRI5LYDOU\DQG+DELW
/6(/RQGRQ0LPHR
/D\DUG5+DSSLQHVV/HVVRQVIURPD1HZ6FLHQFH$OOHQ/DQH/RQGRQ 0DQVNL &) ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ RI (QGRJHQRXV 6RFLDO (IIHFWV 7KH 5HIOHFWLRQ
3UREOHP5HYLHZRI(FRQRPLF6WXGLHV
2VZDOG$-+DSSLQHVVDQG(FRQRPLF3HUIRUPDQFH(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO
3RZGWKDYHH 1 (FRQRPLFV RI +DSSLQHVV $ 5HYLHZ RI /LWHUDWXUH DQG $SSOLFDWLRQV&KXODORQJNRUQ-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLFV
5D\R / DQG %HFNHU * +DELWV 3HHUV DQG +DSSLQHVV $Q (YROXWLRQDU\
3HUVSHFWLYH$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
6FLWRYVN\7 7KH -R\OHVV (FRQRP\$Q ,QTXLU\ LQWR +XPDQ 6DWLVIDFWLRQ DQG &RQVXPHU'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQ2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV1HZ<RUN
6WHYHQVRQ % DQG :ROIHUV - (FRQRPLF *URZWK DQG 6XEMHFWLYH :HOOEHLQJ 5HDVVHVVLQJWKH(DVWHUOLQ3DUDGR[:RUNLQJ3DSHU:KDUWRQ6FKRRO8QLYHUVLW\
RI3HQQV\OYDQLDSUHSDUHGIRU%URRNLQJV3DSHUVRQ(FRQRPLF$FWLYLW\6SULQJ
9HHQKRYHQ5,V+DSSLQHVVD7UDLW"7HVWVRIWKH7KHRU\WKDWD%HWWHU6RFLHW\
GRHV QRW 0DNH 3HRSOH DQ\ +DSSLHU6RFLDO ,QGLFDWRUV 5HVHDUFK
:LOVRQ : &RUUHODWHV RI$YRZHG +DSSLQHVV3V\FKRORJLFDO %XOOHWLQ