Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria

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Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Massacres in Syria

Adam Scharpf,

University of Mannheim

Gerald Schneider,

University of Konstanz

Anna Nöh,

University of Konstanz

Aaron Clauset,

University of Colorado Boulder

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1. Introduction

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2. Predicting political violence: Structural versus procedural approaches

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of the specialists, inaccurate forecasts do not necessarily lead to a loss of reputation.

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3. Using power laws as a tool for procedural conflict forecasts

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the Srebrenica massacre is readily identifiable. The estimated power law feanrres a scaling parameter of a= 1.84 (± 0.08) which implies that the probability distribution is considerably heavy-tailed.⁴¹

Figure 1-B depicts om prediction results for the historical probability of the Sre- brenica massacre.⁴²Given the finite sample, we need to accmmt for tmcertainty in the estimated power law parameters, which is done by estimating slightly diverging power law models.⁴³We accmmt for tmcertainty in parameters by estimating 10,000 bootstrapped power laws. 90% uncertainty inteiVals of the ex post probabilities are constructed by sampling 1,000 synthetic data sets from evety bootstrap power law model. For the Bosnian war, we ascertain an historical probability of 49% (25o/o- 73%) for at least one violent event of 6,000 or more civilians killed between 1990 and 1995.⁴⁴These probabilities suggest that the massacre in Srebrenica was not a statistical outlier but rather a typical outcome of tl1e process w1derlying this conflict.

Figure 1: Predicting massive violence against civilians during the Bosnian war.

1990-1995. using power laws.

1-A: Identifying the probability distribution of violence severity

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41 We checked the goodness-of-fit between the estima~d power-law distnbuuon and the dallL The power-law dutnbuuon IS a plaus1ble model of the data. Please note, however, thai thu IS also ~ for olhcr heavy-tailed d!stnbuhons which can therefore not be rejected as plansible models

42 The Srebreruca massacre was excluded from the data before esrunaung 11S butoncal probability.

43 Clauset IUld Woodard, op. cit., pp. 184~1841.

44 The eslunauon method allows us to bold the lower bound of the power law models x.,.. constant. The resulting

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XQUHVWULFWHG DFFHVV WR WKHLU RQOLQH GDWDEDVHV 7KH ZHEVLWHSyrian Shuhada⁵⁵ main WDLQV D GHWDLOHG GDWDEDVH ZLWK LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH ORFDWLRQ GDWH DQG FDXVH RI GHDWK DV ZHOO DV RQ WKH QDPHV DJH DQG VH[ RI WKH YLFWLPV 5HSRUWV E\ WKH 86 Congressional Research Service⁵⁶DUH PDLQO\ EDVHG RQ GDWD RI WKHSyrian Shuhada⁵⁷GDWDEDVH ZKLFK GUDZV XSRQ YDULHV VRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ QHZV VRXUFHV RSSRVLWLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV DQG )DFHERRNJURXSV WR FROOHFW LQIRUPDWLRQ HJThe Martyrs of Syrian Revolution⁵⁸ It also lists VDC⁵⁹DV D VRXUFH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KH 9'& IRU LWV SDUW ZRUNV WRJHWKHU ZLWK RSSRVLWLRQDO DFWLYLVW QHWZRUNV VRFDOOHGLocal Coordination Committees, and UHFRUGV DFFRUGLQJ WR LWV RZQ VWDWHPHQW ³PDUW\UV DQG GHWDLQHHV RI WKH 5HYROXWLRQ LQ OLQH ZLWK LQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV WR GRFXPHQW KXPDQ ULJKWV YLRODWLRQV´⁶⁰ Various

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UHOLDEOH´ and the Foreign Policy Magazine uses it for their analyses.⁶³ Because the Syrian Shuhada⁶⁴GDWDEDVH LQWHJUDWHV GDWD RI WKH 9'&⁶⁵LQ WKHLU FDVXDOW\ ¿JXUHV ZH GUDZ RQ WKH IRUPHU GDWD VRXUFH IRU RXU DQDO\VLVSyrian Shuhada⁶⁶DOORZV XV WR GLV WLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ FLYLO DQG PLOLWDU\ FDVXDOWLHV 7R SURMHFW WKH VXIIHULQJV RI WKH 6\ULDQ FLYLO SRSXODWLRQ DV XQELDVHGO\ DV SRVVLEOH ZH ZLOO IRFXV LQ RXU DQDO\VLV H[FOXVLYHO\

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55 Syrian Shuhada, op. cit.

56 -HUHP\ 0 6KDUS &KULVWRSKHU 0 %ODQFKDUG ³$UPHG &RQÀLFW LQ 6\ULD 86 DQG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 5HVSRQVH´

Congressional Research Service-XO\ DYDLODEOH KWWSISFVWDWHJRYGRFXPHQWVRUJDQL]DWLRQ SGI DFFHVVHG )HEUXDU\

58 7KH )DFHERRNGroup of The Martyrs of Syrian RevolutionFDQ EH IRXQG XQGHU KWWSVZZZIDFHERRNFRP6\U Martyr.

59 VDC, op. cit.

60 Ibid.

61 These NGOs include Human Rights Watch, Fédération Internationale des Droits de l’Homme or the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies.

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65 VDC, op. cit.

(12)

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(14)

5. Forecasting violent events in Syria

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Figure 3: Predicting violence against civilians in Syria between March 2011 and Febnuuy 2013 using power laws.

3 A: Identifying the probability distribution of violence severity

0 Empirical data

···--·Power law

Number of civilians killed Note: Data taken from Syrian Shuhada database.

3-B: Ex post prediction of violence against civilians

Horns Offensive

0 Empirical data - -Prediction models

Number of civilians kiUed

Note: The figure displays l 00 of 10.000 bootstrap power law tail models with fL'Ced Xmin = 45 and varying scaling parameters for a massacre of at least 250 civilians killed. Data taken from Syrian Shuhada database.

(16)

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79 7DOHEop. cit., p. 396.

Number of civilian fatalities

Probabilities of occurrence

90% uncertainty intervals

250 79.8% 59.4% - 94.1%

360 46.7% 25.4% - 68.7%

500 24.0% 10.6% - 41.0%

750 8.9% 2.9% - 17.7%

1,000 4.4% 1.2% - 9.5%

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Number of civilian casualties

Tail model

µ2SWLPLVWLF¶

scenario with N90day = 412

µStatus quo¶

µPessimistic¶

Power law 65.1% 87.3% 98.1%

125 Stretched exponential 61.6% 84.6% 97.3%

Log-normal 60.1% 83.4% 96.7%

Power law 15.4% 28.2% 47.6%

Log-normal 10.7% 20.0% 35.6%

Power law 2.6% 5.2% 10.0%

Log-normal 1.3% 2.6% 5.0%

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LV UHODWLYHO\ XQOLNHO\ WR RFFXU 7KH FKDQFH RI VXFK DQ HYHQW LV QRW PRUH WKDQ even under the pessimistic scenario.

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Evaluation:⁸¹+RZ DFFXUDWH DUH RXU IRUHFDVWV" 7KH RYHUDOO DLP RI WKLV DUWLFOH LV WR SURYLGH SROLF\ PDNHUV ZLWK DQ HDUO\ ZDUQLQJ V\VWHP WR DVVHVV WKH ULVN RI H[WUHPH PDVVDFUHV $FFRUGLQJO\ ZH IRFXV RQ D PDVVDFUH RI FLYLOLDQV NLOOHG WR HYDOXDWH WKH DFFXUDF\ RI RXU PRGHO 5HDGHUV PD\ NHHS LQ PLQG WKDW LQ WKH GDWD WKDW ZH XVH WR WUDLQ RXU PRGHO WKH PRVW VHYHUH HYHQW H[KLELWV NLOOHG FLYLOLDQV :H WKHUHIRUH FRQVLGHU WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI D ¿FWLRQDO JRYHUQRUDWHGD\ RI FLYLOLDQ GHDWKV WR EH D crucial test to our system. Given the extremely rare character of events of this size DQG WKH KLJKO\ GLVDJJUHJDWHG QDWXUH RI RXU GDWD ZH DUJXH WKDW D ULVN RI JUHDWHU WKDQ IRU DQ HYHQW RI WKLV PDJQLWXGH VKRXOG EH D VWURQJ DODUP IRU SROLWLFDO GHFLVLRQ makers to react to the continuing violence. To assess the accuracy of our ex ante SUHGLFWLRQ ZH FROOHFWHG GDWD IURP WKHSyrian ShuhadaGDWDEDVH IRU RXU GD\ IRUH FDVWLQJ ZLQGRZ ZKLFK ZHUH QRW DYDLODEOH DW WKH WLPH ZH XQGHUWRRN RXU IRUHFDVW 7KH GDWD VKRZV WKDW WKH RYHUDOO OHYHO RI YLROHQFH LQ 6\ULD KDV UHPDLQHG UHODWLYHO\ VWDEOH 7KHUH DUH JRYHUQRUDWHGD\V RI GHDGO\ YLROHQFH DJDLQVW FLYLOLDQV 7KH µVWDWXV TXR¶

VFHQDULR ZKLFK FRQVLVWV RI JRYHUQRUDWHGD\V SURYLGHV XV WKXV ZLWK WKH DSSURSUL ate setting to evaluate our forecasts.

/RRNLQJ DW WKH µVWDWXV TXR¶ VFHQDULR LQ 7DEOH ZH HVWLPDWH WKH ULVN RI REVHUYLQJ DW OHDVW RQH H[WUHPH HYHQW ZLWK RU PRUH FLYLOLDQV NLOOHG WR EH WZLFH WKH SUREDELO LW\ RI RXU EHQFKPDUN IRU UDUH DQG H[WUHPH HYHQWV XQGHU WKH ORJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ 8QGHU WKH SRZHUODZ GLVWULEXWLRQ WKH OLNHOLKRRG LQFUHDVHV ¿YHIROG :LWK WKLV LQIRU PDWLRQ DW KDQG SROLF\ PDNHUV VKRXOG WKHUHIRUH KDYH H[SHFWHG VXFK D JRYHUQRUDWH day of this magnitude to occur.

&KHFNLQJ WKH GDWD IRU RXU IRUHFDVWLQJ ZLQGRZ EHWZHHQ 0DUFK DQG 0D\

ZH REVHUYH WKDW WKHUH LV LQGHHG RQH JRYHUQRUDWHGD\ RI VXFK PDJQLWXGH 2Q $SULO JRYHUQPHQW IRUFHV UHFDSWXUHG WKH FLW\ RI -GDLGHW DO)DGO RXWVLGH RI 'DPDVFXV LQ WKH JRYHUQRUDWH RI 5LI 'LPDVKT DIWHU VHYHUDO GD\V RI KHDY\ ¿JKWLQJ 2Q WKH ODVW GD\ RI

¿JKWLQJ WKH 6\ULDQ $UP\ DOOHJHGO\ SHUSHWUDWHG D PDVVDFUH E\ VXPPDULO\ H[HFXWLQJ civilians.⁸³ Syrian Shuhada⁸⁴UHSRUWV WKH GHDWKV RI FLYLOLDQ IRU WKLV GD\ WKHUHE\

marking the most violent day in one of the Syrian governorates since the start of the FLYLO ZDU %DVHG RQ RXU IRUHFDVW SUREDELOLWLHV RXU HDUO\ ZDUQLQJ V\VWHP KDV QRW RQO\

SUHGLFWHG WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI WKLV PDVVDFUH EXW LW FRXOG KDYH SXW GHFLVLRQVPDNHUV LQ D position of anticipating this event and of undertaking adequate steps to prevent this tragic event from occurring.

81 7KH HYDOXDWLRQ RI RXU IRUHFDVW ZDV QRW SDUW RI WKH RULJLQDO DUWLFOH SXEOLVKHG Syrian Shuhada, op. cit.

83 %%& ³6\ULD DUP\ VHL]HV -GDLGHW DO)DGO ÃNLOOLQJ GR]HQVµ´BBC News$SULO DYDLODEOH KWWSZZZEEF FRXNQHZVZRUOGPLGGOHHDVW DFFHVVHG )HEUXDU\

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6. Discussion and conclusion

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