RESULTS

In the following sections, we provide the emission allowances under different approaches for the global emission levels given in Figure 29, which aim towards CO2 concentration of 550, 450 and 400 ppmv. We use the following default settings (see also Appendix E):

• Including emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6

• Including international aviation and marine transport

• Excluding CO2 emissions from land-use change and forestry

• All Annex I countries (including the USA) reach their Kyoto target in 2010

• Future emissions are based on the six marker scenarios of the IPCC special report on emission scenarios (IPCC 2000)

We have included the following approaches:

their Kyoto target. Since the post SRES scenarios were not harmonized, absolute global emissions of the scenarios in 1990 and 2000 are not the same for all scenarios

We selected global emission levels in 2020 and 2050, which have to be met by all approaches for the following quantification of emission allowances for the various proposals.

These are taken from Figure 29 to be in line with 550 ppmv CO2 (roughly 650 ppmv CO2eq.) 450 ppmv CO (roughly ppmv 550 CO eq.) and towards 400 ppmv (roughly 450 ppmv

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• Contraction and Convergence (C&C): Per capita emissions converge from 2010 to 2050 (see Chapter 7.2.2). The countries’ emissions share of the global total converges from the share in 2010 to an equal per capita share in 2050. These shares are applied to the prescribed global emission levels in 2020 and 2050. Hence all six cases for the different reference scenarios have the same global emission level.

• Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC): Annex I countries’ per capita emissions converge within several decades to a low level. Individual non-Annex I countries also converge to the same level within the same time period years but starting when their per capita emissions are a certain percentage above global average (see Chapter 7). The parameters described in Chapter 7 were slightly changed so that the prescribed global emission levels are met. The parameters are chosen so that on average over the six scenarios, the prescribed global emission levels are met.

• Compromise Proposal (multistage): Countries participate in several stages with differentiated commitments. The parameters and results are the same as described in chapter 9.2. All six cases for the different reference scenarios have the same global emission level.

• Triptych: Common rules are applies to the sectoral emissions of all countries (see Chapter 8). For the long term (2050), the parameters are chosen as provided in Chapter 8. For 2020 additional cases were calculated that are slightly more relaxed so that the global emission level in 2020 is met. For 2020 and 2050, the parameters are chosen so that on average over the six scenarios, the prescribed global emission levels are met.

w 1990 levels and Russia and Eastern European States are well below In the following sections, the results will be displayed as reductions below or increases above 1990 emission levels. Already from 1990 to 2000 the emissions have changes substantially (see Figure 30). USA, Japan and the Rest of Annex I have increased emissions substantially.

The EU is slightly belo

1990 levels. Most developing countries have increased emissions substantially.

Change from 1990 to 2000 30%

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rovides the change in emissions from 1990 to 2020 and 2050 under Contraction and Convergence, Common but Differentiated Convergence, the Compromise Proposal (Multistage) and Triptych aiming at 550 ppmv CO2 concentration. In all cases, global emissions in 2020 are 50% above 1990 levels, in 2050 45% above 1990 levels. The error bars show the spread using different reference scenarios.

20%

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Figure 30. Change in emissions from 1990 to 2000

10.2.1 550 ppmv CO2

Figure 31 p

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Figure 31. Change in emissions from 1990 to 2020 and 2050 under various approaches aiming at 550 ppmv CO2 concentration. Error bars show the spread using different reference scenarios

20). Yet many Non-Annex I

ssume action by developed countries first and action by developing countries later. Hence, the reductions necessary for Annex I under these approaches are higher in 2020 than for the other approaches.

Most approaches depend on many free parameters, so it often depends on the setting of these parameters whether one approach is favourable for a country or not.

Under all approaches, Annex I countries need to reduce emissions substantially. Under the approaches shown here, Annex I countries need to reduce emissions below 1990 levels in the order of 5% to 25% in 2020 and 50 to 70% in 2050.

Some Non-Annex I counties do not yet participate in 2020 (mainly in South Asia, Africa, Centrally Planned Asia), e.g. in the CDC and multistsage approach. The may even receive more allowances than their reference scenarios, e.g. under Contraction and Convergence (in South Asia and Africa) or under Triptych (South Asia in 20

countries (especially in Latin America, Middle East and East Asia) would need to deviate from their reference scenarios under these approaches already in 2020. In 2050 most countries need to deviate from the reference, especially in Latin America and Middle East.

As we have kept the global emission level constant over all approaches, one can observe how the approaches distribute these global emissions over the countries regions. E.g. under C&C, all countries participate and developing countries with high per capita emissions may need to reduce substantially, Annex I countries as a group have to reduce less relative to other cases. This is even more pronounced for the results of the Triptych approach. For the particular assumptions used, especially on future economic growth, developing countries (especially the coal intensive countries in Africa and South Asia in 2050) have contribute more to the global reduction effort than for other cases. On the other hand, the multistage and the CDC approach a

10.2.2 450 ppmv CO₂

150 from 1990 to 2020 and 2050 under Contrac

Triptych 30% ab using d

Figure 32 also provides the change in emissions

tion and Convergence, Common but differentiated convergence, Multistage and but aiming at 450 ppmv CO2 concentration. In all cases, global emissions in 2020 are ove 1990 levels, in 2050 -25% below 1990 levels. The error bars show the spread ifferent reference scenarios.

450 ppmv 2020 450 ppmv 2020

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Figure 0 and 2050 under various approaches

aim refe n

One can observe that more reductions are required for all countries compared to the 550 case described above. Annex I countries need to reduce emissions below 1990 levels in the order of -10% to -30% in 2020 and 70 to 90% in 2050.

Fewer non-Annex I counties do not yet participate in 2020 (mainly in South Asia and Africa).

Only under a few scenarios countries receive more allowances than required under the reference scenarios with Contraction and Convergence (in South Asia and Africa). Many Non-Annex I countries (especially in Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally planned Asia) would need to deviate from their reference scenarios under these approaches already in 2020. In 2050 most countries need to deviate from the reference, especially in Latin America and Middle East.

We have assumed that all countries reached their Kyoto target in 2010. As the USA has rejected the Kyoto Protocol, one could also assume that the USA will reach the target that it has voluntarily committed to: an improvement in intensity (emissions/GDP) of 18% from 2002 to 2012. At an annual GDP growth rate of 3%, this would translate to an emission increase of around 23 percent from 1990 to 2020. Figure 33 shows a multistage case, where only this assumption was changed. The USA would have to reduce emissions substantially less, if they

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