3 RESTS OF COUNTRIES
4. COUNTRY CASE STUDIES
This Chapter presents four case studies on individual countries, outlining their implemented climate policies, emission profiles and projections, vulnerability and key incentives to participate in a climate regime. The cases include Mexico, India, China and the USA.
60 4.1 CASE STUDY: MEXICO
4.1.1 National climate policy
In 1993, Mexico ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Following ratification, the government of Mexico appointed the Secretariat for Environment and Natural Resources (Semarnat) as the legal entity responsible for planning, coordinating, supervising and evaluating climate change policies in the country. In April 1997, the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change was formed to coordinate climate change issues. In 2000, Mexico ratified the Kyoto Protocol as the first large oil-exporting developing country.
Mexico has implemented several specific measures and policies to reduce GHG emissions, particularly from the energy sector and through forestry projects. Table 5 outlines some specific examples for each of these measures implemented in Mexico during the last deca .
s implemented in Mexico
de Table 5: Examples of GHG mitigation measure
Measures Examples
Energy conservation and Creation of the National Commission for Energy Saving (CoNAE), to
utility based program for savings
energy efficiency promote energy savings at national level and the use of renewable energy;
Creation of a fund aimed at saving electric energy to assist in the implementation of a
Use of new and advanced technologies
Introduction of electric power plants using combined cycle in the electric system;
Several demonstration projects which have increased the industrial capacity for solar technologies
Fuel substitution and Fuel switch from oil to natural gas;
improvements of fuel uc carb ten ajo fue
quality
Red tion of on con ts in m r fossil ls
Fuel price chan uc pe rg die
ea ol s
ges Red tion of s cific ene y subsi s;
Incr sing gas ine taxe Policy change in
n
em fore con
forest conservatio
Impl enting st fire trol
Source: Second al ni nd e in n
P nter (2002)
Implementation of these measures has considerably contributed to avoiding additional nergy sector and the possibilities of private investment into cleaner energy els. The Mexican constitution is the principal bottleneck to allow increasing investments into
of the main state-owned energy companies were sold through funds to be invested in infrastructure.
Nation Commu cation a “Climat change mitigation developi g countries” and EW Ce
emission growth. The success of future energy-related emission reductions will depend on the evolution of the e
fu
renewable energy in Mexico since it currently limits participation of the private sector in the production and distribution of energy. The Congress has not yet approved the President’s efforts pushing free market reforms in the energy sector. The National Energy Plan for the period 2001 to 2006 presented by the Fox Administration proposed a greater share of the involvement of the private sector in Mexico in producing and distributing energy. In May 2002 a historical step was taken into the direction of energy sector privatization when shares of two
61 missions
and Past Emiss In 1990 M GHG emi s reached 188 MtCeq. and rcent until 1996 reachin MtCeq. d Nation municati The predomin s was ca ioxide (79%), followed by methane (20%
1%). Fig hows how GHG emissions are distributed a the secto 4.1.2 Emission profile: current and future e
Current ions: exican ssion grew
about 16 pe g 217 (Secon al Com on of
Mexico). ant ga rbon d ) and
nitrous oxide ( ure 2 s mong rs.
9% Waste
Forestry Agriculture Industrial Process Fugitive emissions 24%
33%
Transport 4% 8%
15% 7% Combustion
Source: Second National Communication by Mexico
Figure 2: Greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 eq. according to sectors
Table 6 illustrates the development of energy-related GHG emissions during the period 1990 to1998 from Mexico’s second national communication of 2001. Energy related CO2 emissions have increased by 30% from 1990 to 1998.
Mexico is the 12th largest GHG emitting country. Mexico’s per capita emissions are slightly below global average (sources: Höhne et al. 2003, WRI climate analysis indicator tool).
Table 6: Energy-related CO2 Emissions per sector (MtCO2)
Sector 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Industrial 55.769 55.345 55.757 56.149 59,926 61,070 62,083 60,935 62,408 Utilities 37,872 38,380 35,586 35,980 37,059 32,201 38,976 41,606 47,301 Residential 18,784 19,490 20,114 20,676 21,608 21,985 22,361 22,471 22,580 Commercial 3,725 4,690 5,370 5,306 5,878 5,377 5,828 6,043 6,418 Agriculture 4,984 5,138 5,169 5,204 4,927 5,072 5,421 5,797 5,738 Electricity 66,992 69,237 67,761 70,350 84,200 77,958 82,868 92,146 101,343 Total
Without Biomass
188,126 192,280 192,757 193,665 213,598 203,663 217,537 228,998 245,788 Source: Second National Communication of Mexico under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, 2001
Future Emissions: Table 7 illustrates the projection of carbon dioxide emissions sector and forestry until 2010. These projections were calculated assumin
for the energy g an average
se by 20%.
growth of the GDP of 4.5 percent and an average population growth rate of 1.2% for the decade 2000-20103. According to this source, emissions from energy are expected to almost double (+80%) from 2000 to 2010. Emissions from forestry are expected to decrea
3 For more information on the methodology used read the Second National Communication of Mexico under the UNFCCC
Table 7: Projected CO2 emissions (MtCO2)
Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Energy4 292,1 333,4 397,9 546,3 726,0
Forestry 228,9 206,7 186,6 168,9 152,9
Total 521,0 540,1 584,5 715,2 878,9
Source: see 2nd NC Mexico: Sheinbaum C. y O. Masera 2000. Mitigating carbon emissions while advancing national development priorities; the case of Mexico climatic change
4.1.3 Vulnerability
Changes in climate can already be observed in Mexico. In northwestern Mexico, there is a tendency for more winter precipitation, which has resulted in positive trends in river water levels. However, inter-annual climate variability has also increased. On the other hand some parts of southern Mexico and Central America exhibit positive or negative rainfall trends, depending on the orientation of the catchment.
Future climate scenarios of Global Climate Models predict an increase in mean temperature changes for the next century between 0,2-2% for large parts of Latin America. Downscaled
g the central American coastline that includes parts of Mexico, sea level rise will affect infrastructure, agriculture and natural resources, as well a potentially
and salinization of aquifers and increased flood risks and the CC, Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 2001).
s carried out, in order to analyze a scenario of s city in the case of doubling of CO2 concentrations in the
in Mexico are the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) a
state-n
4 ive for Mexic in further action on climate change
M d 6,
Mexico confirmed suppor to
continue with implementing
T rm ntry
w ort
global climate model experiments for Mexico suggest that the climate in Mexico in general will be drier and warmer. Several hydrological regions in Mexico are highly vulnerable to decreased precipitation and higher temperature having a substantial impact on agriculture and land use. Alon
exacerbate coastal erosion impacts of severe storms (IP
In 1998 a Vulnerability Study of Mexico City wa the bioclimatic conditions of thi
atmosphere. With one of the models a possible increase of 2.1°C in the annual temperature was obtained for a specific part of this urban area.
The 1982-1983 droughts and forest fires registered in Mexico and Central America caused damages estimated at more than US$600 million. The extended drought over the past decade in Mexico seems to be the result of general climate changes. The “El Nino” events have been occurring more frequently and more intensively since the eighties, as compared with previous periods (Magana 1999)
4.1.4 Domestic interest groups supporting climate change activities Amongst the major interest groups
owned oil and gas company and the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE), the national electricity utility. PEMEX (in contrary to CFE) has a rather proactive position towards climate protection. It has implemented internal energy saving programs, and is at the moment developing plans to deal with climate change issues. In addition, the firm has developed a voluntary company-based emission trading system to early gain knowledge and hands o experience with such a new mechanism.
62 .1.5 Incent o to engage
exico has demonstrate a positive position towards combating climate change. At COP ting the Kyoto Protocol and announced political willingness
additional GHG regulations in the country.
wo conditions were info ould be willing to supp
ally mentioned by Mexico’s government under which the cou further actions on climate change. First, future actions on climate
4
transport sector.
The energy sector includes; industrial, self-consumption, residential, commercial, electricity and
63
c d need to be gress by industrialized countries to
reduce emissions. This co
countries” that the global a capita emissions or global average emission intensity
d further pplied
t olicies.
In spite of its active nationa licy, Mexico is one of the two OECD countries that are
n x I
this was that the Framew became a member of the O
Becoming member of the O olicy implemented in the
e Organisation) and signed everal bilateral and multilateral international trade agreements. Within the most relevant s are the EU-Mexico and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with
ange and appointed responsibility for national climate change issues to the MoEF. In August 2002, India ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
One of the key challenges for GHG emissions reductions is the substantial development need that India faces today. In order to increase economic growth India has developed an open and market based economy and developed a highly sophisticated science and technology sector. This market reform has, among others measures, improved India’s fuel quality, technological standards, infrastructure and operating practices in the power and coal sector.
Another important change was implemented with price reforms, which brought the coal price in India to world coal price levels.
Despite technology improvements local environmental protection initiatives are a second important factor that have contributed to GHG emissions reductions. Pressure from citizens to reduce air pollution has pushed the court to enforce existing laws to improve air quality. Table 8 below provides some examples of the GHG mitigation measures implemented in India.
able 8: Examples of GHG mitigation measures implemented in India