Implications for future research

The thesis seeks to contribute to future research in several ways. First, the potential for elite studies to be extended to cases beyond those analysed here is one of great interest to this author. The lack of systematic data collections on elites has long plagued elite studies outside Western Europe: analyses of elite behaviour were more often based on assumptions, albeit valid, than on evidence-grounded arguments (Perthes 2004). Today, the greater availability of data means that it is possible to draw inferences within and across states, providing a more extensive and nuanced understanding of how elites operate in a variety of contexts. Elite studies would benefit not only from the widening of its scope, but also from a vertical integration of elites at multiple levels of the power hierarchy. In particular, incorporating local elites into the analyses is of great relevance for understanding how power is negotiated and exercised around specific policy issues.

This research project has highlighted the changing nature of contemporary political elites across Africa and the Middle East. Independent, non-party elites, greater hybridisation between formal and informal institutions, and an overall greater ethno-regional inclusivity mean that the region’s elite landscape is characterised by an ostensible heterogeneity of political actors that has transformed deeply-rooted practices of power.

Understanding how these domestic dynamics are reproduced, and to what effect, is key to identify future patterns of change. Additionally, while not specifically addressed in this study, interactions with increasingly transnational political economies and changes in international alliances are also of great significance: appropriation of military, development and humanitarian aid, integration into international energy and commodities markets, and geopolitical shifts are only some of the ways in which domestic political elites are being constrained, and likewise manipulating, these dynamics. Future research should further investigate the conditions and modes of such interactions.

Second, for decades, discourses on democracy and democratisation meant that the academic literature has emphasised studies of democracy over autocracies. Reflecting a widely shared ideological bias, “much of [this literature] is saturated with the dubious assumption that democratization is a natural, normal, and even inevitable process that all states everywhere would undergo if only certain pesky barriers were removed” (Lynch 2004: 341). A focus on a regime’s atomic elements – its political elites – instead allows studying the factual dynamics of power, beyond the specific regimes in which they are situated or supposedly progressive or regressive trajectories of democratisation and

autocratisation. In Chapter 6, the thesis has shown that understanding political change as a cyclical process could better explain why states have often deviated from these teleological movements towards democracy or autocracy.

Future research should further interrogate whether the dynamics explored in this research are indeed a distinctive feature of this region, or rather constitute a recurring element of elite behaviour across the globe. Existing scholarship on democratic and authoritarian learning (Hall and Ambrosio 2017) has highlighted how regime elites absorb political survival practices from others in an effort to weather acute crises. The greater availability of both disaggregated conflict and elite data should make it possible to extend the scope of the investigations – in this research limited to a specifically defined region – and to also make broader generalisations into elite behaviour.

Third, the relationship between elites and violence has wider implications for state-building discourses. Although academic and policy audiences have increasingly incorporated institution- and state-building priorities in their agendas, the ways in which state-building processes can contribute to the greater militarisation of political and social orders, along with the entrenchment of violence, are still under-explored. In particular, this thesis has argued that, in order to understand these processes, it is crucial to further explore how collusive exchanges between state and non-state agents are transforming governance institutions in conflict or post-conflict settings. Evidence of this is the emergence of areas of limited statehood, in which sovereign authority, state functions and law enforcement are exercised beyond the boundaries of the state. Rather than reflecting state failure, this is a sign of fragmented conflict environments populated by elites competing for power.

Emphasis on the role and the behaviour of elites is equally significant for peacebuilding and conflict management policies in violence-affected societies. Policy responses that fail to appreciate the networked and relational dimension of power, are unlikely to create lasting conditions for the reduction of violence. In doing so, power-sharing agreements often design institutional arrangements that are broadly representative on paper, but in fact crystallise unequal relations of power and end up exacerbating mistrust among elites and groups. This partially explains the failures of international mediation efforts in Libya and Yemen, and the ostensibly intractable character of these conflicts. Without adequate attention to the local configurations and practices of power, and to the role that spoilers,

mediators and stabilisers can play in these contexts, the result will be highly volatile political settlements characterised by the continued deterioration and manipulation of governance institutions.

In sum, this research project has sought to demonstrate the heterogeneity of political elites across Africa and the Middle East, and how domestic political violence is embedded in local competitions for power. In doing so, it has explored several cross-cutting themes using a comparative approach, along with a variety of case studies arising from the region, singling out their significance, limitations and comparability.

Future research should continue to further combine comparative work with in-depth case studies, bridging the gap between a focus on locally situated contexts and wider generalisations across the region and beyond. A more integrated approach that takes into consideration both the local, specific conditions of elite behaviour, and the broader political patterns and environments in which elites operate, would greatly benefit the understanding of the mechanisms of power.