The Future of Hydrogen: An Analysis at World Level, With Special Look at Air Transport

W O R K I N G P A P E R

THE mPIZTRE OF I-IYDROGEN An Analysis a t W o r l d Ievel,

W i t h Special

b k

_{a t} Air Transport

Cesare Marchetti

May 1986 IQ-36-925

I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e for Applied Systems Analysis

NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR

THE FUTURE

OF

HYDROGEN An

Analysis at World Level.

With

Special Look at Air Transport

C e s a r e M a r c h e t t i

May 1986 WP-86-25

Invited p a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t 7 h e H y d r o g e n L i n k C o n f e r e n c e of t h e Hydrogen Industry Council, Montreal, March 24-26, 1986.

W o r k i n g P a p e r s a r e interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d herein d o not necessarily r e p r e s e n t t h o s e of t h e Institute or of i t s National Member Organizations.

INTEXNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract

Technologies are usually introduced at t h e market level when t h e context r e q u i r e s them. To f o r e c a s t when hydrogen will be introduced as a n e n e r g y v e c t o r , I analyzed t h e context of t h e level of t h e energy system, and at t h e level of t h e a i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system. Both contexts indicate f o r hydrogen fuel a commercial introduction toward t h e end of t h e century. The main d r i v e in t h e area of aviation is t h e bottleneck in t h e i n c r e a s e in jet engines' power t h a t c a n b e solved only by going hypersonic.

THE FUTURE OF HYIIROGEN

An Analysis at World Level, With Special Look at Air T r a n s p o r t

Forecasting has become a really interesting t r a d e since I accidentally discovered t h a t t h e V o l t e m - L o t k a equations of competition, originally developed f o r t h e biological realm, f i t s o w e l l human affairs. After all, t h e most penetrating analysis of human v i r t u e s and f r a i l t i e s have often been done using images from the animal world.

What comes out from a n extended diagnosis of economic. social and cultural p r o c e s s e s i s t h a t t h e "system" i s e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y well organized and behaves with long term self-consistency. This means o u r will and initiative a r e certainly t h e n e c e s s a r y driving f o r c e t o keep it ticking, but t h a t t h e objectives and timing have b e t t e r t o b e adapted t o t h e system context if w e are chasing f o r success.

The analysis of t h e dynamics of e n e r g y markets in physical terms, o r t h e pri- mary energy substitution at world level. i s r e p o r t e d in Figure 1, fitted with t h e system of logistics solution of t h e V o l t e m equations. I have probably shown this figure a thousand times. Taking t h e equations in a predictive mode, i t shows coal and oil as t h e loosers, gas t h e winner in t h e medium term and nuclear plus fusion in t h e long term.

The equations r e p o r t e d in Figure 1 give not only t h e t r e n d s but t h e p r e c i s e time p a t t e r n of events t o come, and in o r d e r t o boost t h e confidence of t h e listeners, I usually show a forecasting-backcasting experiment (Figure 2) done into t h e past, s o t h a t we do not have t o waste time waiting f o r t h e f u t u r e t o come t o us.

The experiment consists in slicing twenty y e a r s of d a t a out of a time s e r i e s of about one hundred y e a r s . t h a t of primary energy markets shown in Figure 1. The slice is t h a t between 1900 and 1920. Using o n l y t h e s e 20 y e a r s of d a t a , w e can f i t a set of equations and p r o j e c t them forward and backward in time. Then w e s u p e r - pose a c t u a l s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a and compare them with t h e p r o j e c t e d equations (Figure 2). Et v o i l d . I t might s e e m p r e p o s t e r o u s t h a t in 1920 one could p r e d i c t t h e market s h a r e of oil in 1980 with a precision of a few p e r c e n t , b u t i t is just like t h a t . And I r e i n f o r c e t h e dose by saying o n e could have a l s o predicted t h e flare of oil p r i c e s a t t h e beginning of t h e seventies and t h e i r e b b a dozen y e a r s later. I certainly predicted t h e e b b , if only in 1980.

Reexamining Figure 1, one sees t h e system moving progressively from wood t o coal, to oil, to gas. This means toward fuels r i c h e r and r i c h e r in hydrogen. This is even more evident from t h e consumer side, were, e.g. oil p r o d u c t s are all r i c h e r in hydrogen than oil itself. From a Darwinian point of view, i t looks as if hydrogen competes with c a r b o n inside t h e fuel system and moves to win.

The observation c a n b e p u t t o test by looking at t h e r a t i o

H/C

f o r t h e mix of fuels at any given time. These primary e n e r g i e s are v e r y inhomogeneous stuff. but I took some s o r t of weighted means, 0 . 1 f o r wood, 1 f o r coal. 2 f o r oil and 4 f o r gas.

The r e s u l t is r e p o r t e d in Figure 3. Extraordinarily enough, t h e competition fol- lows a logistic path. as i t should in a 1:l context. I t should also give complete vic- t o r y t o t h e winner, but h e r e t h e fuel r i c h e s t in hydrogen, n a t d gas, h a s only a r a t i o of hydrogen t o c a r b o n of 4:l. Should victory s t a y at 80X? A t t h i s point w e can make t h e hypothesis t h a t t h e system k e e p s going as it likes, in i t s usual way, and we have to t a k e c a r e of i t s d e s i d e r a t a by providing e x t r a hydrogen from a n e x t e r n a l s o u r c e , obviously water.

Such simple hypothesis gives us t h e possibility t o calculate t h e time when industrial water-splitting will s t a r t , using obviously nonfossil primary energies.

This means using h y d r o o r nuclear. The next question is if t h e indications s o con- s t r u c t e d make s e n s e in t h e g e n e r a l context. The dates, one can g e t from t h e fig- u r e , are l a t e nineties f o r t h e world, and e a r l y nineties for t h e FRG, analyzed in t h e same way. They are not c o n t r a d i c t o r y as t h e FRG i s a s m a l l nick at t h e world level.

As t h e primary s o u r c e cannot be fossil fuels, because t h e y are a l r e a d y counted. w e are l e f t with h y d r o and n u c l e a r as said already. Let us look now at t h e situation m o r e in detail. Hydro, at world level, is still a f a i r l y unexploited primary r e s o u r c e , even in a developed and capitalized country like Canada. The main rea- son for t h a t i s most probably t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y is a stuff q u i t e difficult and expen- sive to t r a n s p o r t o v e r thousands of kilometers. The thin power lines I can ^{s e e n} when I fly o v e r n o r t h e r n Canada are sitting in no man's land, going from nowhere into nowhere. and make me shudder at t h e thought of t h e construction and mainte- nance problems.

Being a i r b o r n e , I r e p e a t e d l y estimated t h a t a couple of planes concocted by joining t h e body of a S u p e r Guppy ( f o r volume) to a wing plus power plant of a n Antonov 2 2 ( f o r lift), could shove t h e LHZ from a one Gigawatt (primary) electro- lysis plant in Canada to a r o c k e t s i t e in t h e US. Even if t h e Gigawatts were 50, t h e scale and complication seem t r e a t a b l e , and, if t h e final p r o d u c t has t o b e LH2, t h e scheme looks more a e s t h e t i c t h a n a maze of power lines or a f l e e t of t r u c k s . This small d e t o u r into aviation i s a l s o motivated from t h e f a c t t h a t LH2 h a s to learn t o fly, as w e will see in a moment. The s o o n e r t h e b e t t e r !

In t h e primary e n e r g y analysis of Figure 1, hydro does not even a p p e a r , being less t h a n 1% of world level and finally n u c l e a r energy will c a r r y t h e t h r u s t . The equation. against which i t i s p r e s e n t e d in Figure 1, does not f i t i t s a c t u a l p e n e t r a - tion r a t e , but i t shows how n u c l e a r e n e r g y should behave if i t would follow t h e rules of p e n e t r a t i o n of t h e fossil fuels. I t p e n e t r a t e s actually much f a s t e r , and this is due to t h e fact t h a t n u c l e a r h e a t is sold to a preexisting system with a dis-

tribution network a l r e a d y in place. Coal, oil, and g a s had t o dig t h e i r own.

The e l e c t r i c g r i d is a mixed blessing f o r n u c l e a r e n e r g y because i t makes i t s life easy, e x c e p t f o r t h e f a c t t h a t i t s c a p a c i t y will b e soon s a t u r a t e d . A similar thing did happen to n a t u r a l g a s when i t e n t e r e d European c o u n t r i e s , where city- gas distribution w a s a l r e a d y in place. P e n e t r a t i o n had t o kink t o a slower p a c e when t h i s niche filled up. In s p i t e of all t h e e f f o r t s t o make nuclear small and cozy, t h e only viable v a r i e t y seems big and distant in t h i s configuration. The only pro- d u c t a l t e r n a t i v e to e l e c t r i c i t y seems to b e hydrogen.

Time i s t h e n e c e s s a r y ingredient of s t r a t e g y , s o let us look at t h e situation in a time frame. F o r t h a t I will use two concepts, one, w e h a v e a l r e a d y s e e n , an inno- vation, develops logistically to fill i t s niche. In multiple competition t h e situation is a l i t t l e more complicated, but t h a t is t h e message. The second c o n c e p t is t h a t o u r Western s o c i e t i e s o p e r a t e in a pulsed way, with a period of about 55 y e a r s . Most innovations start a n d s a t u r a t e inside o n e of t h e s e time boxes. I t c a n restart and s a t u r a t e at a h i g h e r level during t h e following time box. Our box ends around 1995 (it s t a r t e d in 1940) and t h a t i s why all markets look s a t u r a t e d . And why r e c e s s i o n i s going t o last until then. And why everybody runs exagitated in o r d e r to start something new.

S o let u s use o u r diagnostic eyeglasses to t h e case of n u c l e a r e n e r g y (Figure 4) at world level. I t s a t u r a t e s around 350 GW about 1995, as i t should. These 350 GW are not bad as t h e y r e p r e s e n t about o n e Terawatt primary h e a t , or more than 10X of world p r i m a r y e n e r g y consumption. The p e n e t r a t i o n is still more advanced in F r a n c e , where about one-third of t h e primary e n e r g y w i l l b e available from nuclear in 1995. This means t h e e l e c t r i c network will b e s a t u r a t e d , and if Frama- tome does not want t o recess into a maintenance configuration, i t h a s to fight i t s way into a new p r o d u c t , i.e. hydrogen. A s o u r French colleagues h e r e will tell you, t h e r e are many signs of moving into action t h e r e . Just f o r illustrative p u r p o s e s ,

t h e c a s e of F r a n c e , Canada and Japan are r e p o r t e d in Figures 5, 6 and 7, f o r what c o n c e r n s n u c l e a r ' s penetration. e x p r e s s e d in Gigawatt e l e c t r i c installed. P r i m a r y thermal power is roughly t h r e e times as much.

If hydrogen from nonfossil primary e n e r g i e s i s going t o start penetrating s w n , t h e next question is in what markets. Usually t h e m a r k e t s p e n e t r a t e d f i r s t are t h e ones where t h e stuff i s at a premium. Curiously enough both oil and elec- t r i c i t y s t a r t e d t h e i r careers in t h e illumination business. My suspicion is t h a t avi- ation h a s many r e a s o n s to b e i n t e r e s t e d in hydrogen, and I will make a n analysis of t h e whys. Because t h e scheme of this analysis i s of genercrl character, i t c a n b e applied to e a c h o t h e r b r a n c h of business using e n e r g y t o see when t h e times are r i p e . Ammonia synthesis and fuels hydrogenation are areas of obvious i n t e r e s t .

Coming t o t h e a i r t r a n s p o r t system, i t s "product" is e x p r e s s e d in ton km/h o r p a s s e n g e r km/h. Figure 8 shows t h e evolution of air t r a n s p o r t from 1945 t o p r e s e n t f i t t e d with a logistic growth function. Just in passing I attract y o u r atten- tion t o t h e fact t h a t t h e dynamics of t h e growth did p a s s absolutely unscathed through t w o m a j o r i n c r e a s e s in t h e p r i c e of jet fuel, in 1973 and in 1979. This powerful homeostasis of l a r g e systems i s v e r y useful to make f o r e c a s t s a work of precision. About 95% of t h e s a t u r a t i o n point of around 200 x 1 0 pass-km/h will b e 6 r e a c h e d in t h e middle nineties. The f i g u r e a l s o r e p o r t s t h e d a t e s when successful f i r s t level a i r c r a f t s were introduced.

Air t r a f f i c c a n b e visualized as a flux. but also a n a i r p l a n e , where produc- tivity can b e e x p r e s s e d in ton km/h or pass-km/h. Because also t h i s productivity grows logistically in time, i t c a n b e shown in a renormalized form t o g e t h e r with t r a f f i c (Figure 9). In t h i s f i g u r e also t h e pre-war t a i l is r e p o r t e d ( 1% of t h e s a t u r a t i o n point!), basically t o locate a l s o t h e mythical DC-3. The v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g point is t h a t t h e t r a f f i c line (dashed) and t h e productivity line are almost parallel, meaning planes productivity i s always a constant f r a c t i o n of t r a f f i c . This finally

t r a n s l a t e s into t h e f a c t t h a t t h e number of planes is independent of traffic. IIATA members, t h e c o r e of commercial a i r t r a n s p o r t , always had about 4000 planes in s p i t e t r a f f i c increased about 8 0 times since 1950. If we look forward t o t h e next 1 0 y e a r s , we s e e t h a t t h e Jumbo-1000 with thousand passengers and t h e usual Mach-0.8 speed will satisfy t h e i n c r e a s e in demand developing now. I t is a l r e a d y designed, with t h r e e decks, although not y e t certified. The 'long humps" now sel-

ling a r e just i t s p r e c u r s o r s . This plane may r e q u i r e engines with a t h r u s t of around 30,000 kg. We c a n now c o n s t r u c t a link between t r a f f i c demand and engine size. This will give t h e link t o hydrogen.

The history of engines i s r e p o r t e d in Figure 10. I t splices into two logistics, one p e r Kondratief box, as usual f o r many technologies,. The problem f o r piston engines was not speed. After all, one c a n r u n a jet system using a piston engine as t h e Italians did in 1937. Their problem w a s power. The most sophisticated ver- sions r e a c h e d just above a couple of Megawatts. An engine i s a thermodynamic machine, and i t s power depends on t h e mass of working fluid i t c a n process. The i n t r i c a t e inlets and working s p a c e s did limit t h e breathing capacity and t h e power of t h e piston engine. A jet engine i s s t r a i g h t and c a n p r o c e s s a l l a i r i t s c r o s s sec- tion c a n inhale.

A s we see from Figure 1 0 , t h e t h r u s t of subsonic jets a p p e a r s to s a t u r a t e at about 28,000 kg, which v e r y roughly c o r r e s p o n d s t o a c r u i s e power of just above 20 MW. Saturation points to i n t e r n a l difficulties f o r t h e system just as in t h e c a s e of t h e piston engine. The problem h e r e i s t h a t t h e cross-section, which i s t h e p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r power, grows as t h e s q u a r e of l i n e a r dimensions, but weight tends t o grow as t h e cube. A i r c r a f t o p e r a t o r s like t o have two engines, and not twenty, s o engine manufacturers have t o improve technologies t o overcome t h e handicaps t h a t come from size. A s Figure 1 0 shows, they managed v e r y w e l l but t h e y now seem t o be out of b r e a t h .

Because t h e flux of a i r depends not only on t h e cross-section but also on speed. i t i s t h i s v a r i a b l e one could t a c k l e f o r t h e next jump. The same engine size at Mach-8 c a n provide t e n times more power t h a n a t Mach-0.8. Rule of thumb, naturally. On t h e o t h e r side t h e airplane, flying at Mach-8 will a l s o have i t s pro- ductivity i n c r e a s e d by a f a c t o r of ten. S o w e may have t h e potential to i n c r e a s e a i r t r a f f i c by a n o r d e r of magnitude, with a i r p l a n e s c a r r y i n g no more t h a n 1000 passengers which has t h e s c a l e of a t r a i n . I t looks also t h a t t h e hypersonic plane, s o forcefully predicted by President Reagan, will be a necessary p i e c e of furni- t u r e in o u r n e a r future.

T h e r e i s no need t o make a n e f f o r t in guessing what kind of fuel t h e s e planes will use. All maquettes manufacturers wave in t h e twilight, are suspiciously fat.

What I will t r y to assess is t h e when and how l a r g e may b e t h e i r fuel demand. A s indicated in Figure 9, t h e Jumbo-1000 will b e in demand in 1990 and will remain t h e work h o r s e of t h e a i r t r a n s p o r t well t o t h e end of t h e century.

Following t h e r u l e s , t h e next logistic wave will formally start in 1995, like t h e last one in 1940, and w e have all r e a s o n s t o e x p e c t a substantial growth in passenger kilometer. A hint in t h a t direction i s given in Figure 1 1 , where pass-km f o r t h e main intercity t r a n s p o r t systems f o r t h e US are r e p o r t e d . Train and bus are out, and t h e competition i s now between c a r and plane, t h e l a t t e r winning with a c r o s s o v e r b e f o r e 2010. Because t h e t h e constant of t h i s substitution i s about a Kondra cycle, as usual, i t will go from 10% of 90% of t h e pass-km b e f o r e t h e end of t h e n e x t cycle. Air t r a f f i c w i l l t h e n i n c r e a s e by a n o r d e r of magnitude even without taking into account t h e evolution of

total

traffic. I t is in f a c t well known from t h e Zahavi model on t r a v e l demand, t h a t people t r a v e l consistently about one h o u r p e r day, and consequently t h e i r mileage i n c r e a s e s when more time i s allo- cated on f a s t e r t r a n s p o r t media, like t h e a i r p l a n e v e r s u s t h e c a r . On top of t h a t f o r such relatively long time periods one should a l s o account population increase.

What did happen during the p r e s e n t Kondra, was a n i n c r e a s e in pass-km by two o r d e r s of magnitude. Analogies with successful technologies spanning two o r more Kondra, e.g. s t e e l production (Figure 12), a f a c t o r of ten i n c r e a s e in a i r t r a n s p o r t c a n b e considered conservative.

The fuel demand of such a system can be estimated on t h e basis of g e n e r a l con- siderations. What happens in f a c t i s t h a t fuel consumption p e r pass-km a p p e a r s fairly insensitive t o t r a n s p o r t mode. Technological p r o g r e s s seems in f a c t a way to g e t more speed almost f o r free. Let us s a y a i r c r a f t engineers will have t o make miracles in o r d e r to k e e p t h a t t r u e . Incidentally, t h e physics of hypersonic flight s a y s t h a t t h i s is in principle possible. Because p r e s e n t aviation (extrapolated to 1995) consumes about 100 GW of fuel, t h e nezt r o u n d

4P

p l a n e s w i l l consume about 2000 GW. I t will b e inevitably LH2 and t h e estimate i s conservative.

One c a n o b j e c t t h a t most s h o r t - t o medium-range t r a f f i c will still b e done by subsonic planes. True. But one should not f o r g e t t h a t t h e f i r s t level planes are t h e workhorses. Today t h e 747 c a r r y about 75% of all t h e world t r a f f i c e x p r e s s e d

in passenger o r ton kilometer.

The n e x t question is when. P a s t e x p e r i e n c e f o r introducing new successful models c a n b e enlightening. A s shown in Figure 13, t h e "flux" of a plane i s matched t o t h e world t r a f f i c "flux". But a i r frame makers have a l s o t o match t h e i r manufacturing capacity t o t h e demand pulse when i t materializes. F o r t h a t t h e y have t o start manufacturing with a c e r t a i n anticipation in o r d e r t o build up and streamline t h e i r capacity. An analysis of two extremely successful a i r c r a f t s , t h e 727 and t h e 747, shows a n identical p a t t e r n and a n anticipation of about 9 y e a r s (Figure 13 shows t h e case f o r t h e 727).

The timing of t h e f i r s t commercial version of a supersonic-to-hypersonic plane would b e t h e n around t h e end of t h e c e n t u r y , which by t h e way i s only 1 4 y e a r s from now. Such a period of time i s well matched t o a determined e f f o r t in

R&D

t o fly such airplanes. It i s obvious that t h e United S t a t e s i s t h e only place where this can occur, and as the presidential message indicates, where this may o c c u r . As d e Gaulle once said, "L'intendance suivra". We are L'intendance.

Figure 1

P r i m a r y e n e r g y m a r k e t s h a r e dynamics using t h e logistic function system solution of Volterra-Lotka e q u a t i o n s to f i t t h e s t a t i s t i c s .

Figure

1

Fraction ( F )

0.99

1850 1 900 1950 2000 2050 21 00

World primary energy substitution. Source: N. Nakicenovic (IIASA).

Figure 2

An experiment in forecasting. Twenty y e a r s (1900-1920) of primary e n e r g y market s h a r e a r e taken as d a t a base (Figure 2a). A s e t of logistic equations is fitted t o t h e d a t a and extended outside t h e d a t a b a s e (Figure 2b). The extended equations a r e compared with a c t u a l d a t a (Figure 2c). The c a s e of oil s h a r e s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r i k i n g as t h e s h a r e in 1980 could have been p r e d i c t e d in 1920 with a precision of a few p e r c e n t .

Figure 2

World-Primary Energy Substitution (Short Data)

-

F

1-F Fraction F

-= 0.90

.-

^0.70

--

^0.50

lo2

-,

l o 1

loo

0.99

-.

coal

.-

--

^0.30

--

^0.10

.

^0.01

10-1

1 0 - 2 - 1 8 ~ 0

1 & 0 1 P & ~ 0 : 1 ~ 4 0 ~ 1 9 6 0 ~ 1 ~ 8 0 ~ 2 d o O ~ 2 ~ 2 ~

Z D ~ O Wood

-.

Oil Gas

Figure 3

The r a t i o of H/C is r e p o r t e d from 1860 f o r t h e mix of fuels f o r t h e corresponding y e a r s . Hydrogen and c a r b o n behave as

.i4

they where competing f o r t h e e n e r g y market, revealing a s e c u l a r dynamics in t h e techniques of e n e r g y use. One c a n i n f e r t h e s e technologies imply a l a r g e r s h a r e of hydrogen t h e fossil fuel system can provide, when t h e e x t r a p o l a t e d H/C c u r v e s t a r t s deviating from t h e data. The special case of a i r t r a n s p o r t technologies is t r e a t e d in t h e t e x t .

0 \

m I 0 0 0 r

=? I1 =?

*

r.

9

o u

0 0 0 0

0 0

-

N

0 0 0 hl

0 0

Q)

-

0 0 00

F

0 0 f-

LL ^F

-

^{h l -}

hl 0

0 0 I

0 I

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-

Figure 4

N u c l e a r e n e r g y h a s b e e n t h e s u b j e c t of immense d e b a t e , a n d i t might b e consoling t o o b s e r v e i t w a s mostly h o t a i r . The p e n e t r a t i o n c u r v e (Gigawatts!) show a busi- n e s s as usual t r e n d as f o r a n y o t h e r technology. S a t u r a t i o n a r o u n d 1995 just shows t h e e n d of a Kondratief c y c l e . F r e s h p e n e t r a t i o n c u r v e s will start from t h e r e , a n d t h e i r s a t u r a t i o n p o i n t s will d e p e n d on t h e way t h e n u c l e a r - h y d r o g e n i n d u s t r y will create a p p r o p r i a t e p a c k a g e s .

Figures 5. 6. and 7

One could m e l t t h e t h r e e i n t o a single p i c t u r e . Nuclear e n e r g y h a s grown in a q u i t e inhomogeneous way in v a r i o u s p a r t s of t h e world, as t h e Gigawatts of s a t u r a - tion show. Countries more p e n e t r a t e d will h a v e to start soon developing t h e nuclear-hydrogen p a c k a g e , at least t o give a c h a n c e of s u r v i v a l a n d growth t o t h e i r n u c l e a r industry.

Figure 8a

Passenger-km/h t r a n s p o r t e d by world airways. Also t h i s s e r v i c e s a t u r a t e s around 1995-2000, following t h e usual Kondratief r u l e s .

Figure 8 b

Ton-km/yr t r a n s p o r t e d by world airways. I t is interesting t o note t h a t a i r t r a f f i c w a s absolutely unaffected by t h e l a r g e change in oil and jet fuel p r i c e s in 1974 and 1979.

CY 0

F

"I?. -

Figure 9

Passenger-km/h t r a n s p o r t e d by a n a i r p l a n e is t h e measure of i t s productivity. The world t r a f f i c of Figure 8a is r e p o r t e d on t h e same s c a l e as a dashed line. The f a c t t h e two lines a r e almost parallel means airplanes' productivity i s always p r o p o r - tional t o t r a f f i c . A consequence of t h a t i s t h a t t h e number of commercial planes remains basically constant in time. An approximate d a t e f o r t h e s t a r t of t h e Jumbo-1000 is indicated.

L ' i g u r e

9

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE (1 000 Passenger - km/h)

Fraction (1)

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

N. Nakicenovic, 1986

Figure 10

L a r g e r planes, as demanded by increasing t r a f f i c (Figure 9) r e q u i r e more powerful engines. Piston engines seem t o have gone o u t of b r e a t h at t h e beginning of t h e fifties. J e t engines seem t o b e in a similar position now. The analysis points t o a new technology n e c e s s a r y , which w e individuate in s u p e r and hypersonic a i r p l a n e s and engines. These engines are v e r y likely t o use LHZ as fuel.

Figure 11

The competition between i n t e r c i t y modes of p e r s o n a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n in t h e U.S. i s analyzed h e r e f o r t h e l a s t 30 y e a r s . The a i r p l a n e a p p e a r s t h e final winner, with a n i n c r e a s e t o i t s m a r k e t s h a r e up t o 904 d u r i n g t h e n e x t Kondratief c y c l e . The analysis i n d i c a t e s a possible i n c r e a s e of a i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n at t h e world l e v e l by at l e a s t a n o r d e r of magnitude.

Figure 1 2

The c a s e of t h e expansion of a successful industry i s h e r e r e p o r t e d f o r t h e l a s t two Kondratief c y c l e s . Expansion was logistic, a n d t h e s a t u r a t i o n point f o r t h e second wave h a s b e e n just a n o r d e r of magnitude h i g h e r t h a n f o r t h e f i r s t one.

Figure 13

S u c c e s s f u l a i r p l a n e s seem t o follow a fixed s t r a t e g y of m a r k e t p e n e t r a t i o n , which p e r m i t s calculating t h e i r commercial a p p e a r a n c e from t h e time when t h e y are needed, w e c a n c a l c u l a t e f r o m t r a f f i c expansion.