W O R K I N G P A P E R
E N V I R 0 ~ A . L P R O B U X S AND TECHNOLOGICAL
OPPORTUNITIES
1
Cesate MatchettiNovember 1985 WP-85-80
I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e for Applied Systems Analysis
NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR
ENYIRONHEKTAL
PROBIJBBAND TECHNOLOGICAL
OPPORTUNITIES
Cesare Marchetti
November 1 9 8 5 WP-85-80
Keynote a d d r e s s , Internationai Conference on Man's Role i n C h a n g i n g the GLobal E n v i r o n m e n t . Venice, October 21-26, 1985.
Working P a p e r s are interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views o r opinions expressed h e r e i n do not necessarily r e p r e s e n t those of t h e Institute o r of its National Member Organizations.
INTERKATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Resume
The argument of t h e p a p e r is t h a t environmental problems are a d i r e c t conse- quence of a c e r t a i n Weltanschauung Christianism brought into Western societies.
Fairly simple solutions exist f o r the l a r g e ecological problems generated by t h e intrusion of humanity in t h e ecosphere, including at t h e limit an almost com- plete withdrawal.
Because cultural changes have long time constants, t h e r e i s no hope of short- term application of t h e solutions. Ecologists have to learn thinking long term and recognize t h a t p e r s e v e r a n c e i s more important than argument.
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITLES
When man f i r s t emerged a s a talking m o n ~ e y , his way of living was w e l l embed- ded into t h e ecosystem. Men were v e r y few, and, like any o t h e r animal s p e c i e s they just c a r v e d a thin s l i c e in t h e big flux of negentropy: from sun light, through plants, t o t h e dust bin.
The f i r s t b r e a k t h r o u g h came with fire. Because f i r e , breaking down physical and chemical defenses, made available as food a l a r g e spectrum of vegetable pro- ducts. A l a r g e food b a s e means l a r g e populations, and a more noticeabie intru- s i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , f i r e w a s used f o r hunting or cleaning wooded areas, s o giving l e v e r a g e to t h e force of man.
As a n i n t r u d e r .however, man got his long t r o u s e r s when h e s t a r t e d i n t e r f e r - ing with ecological equilibria by favoring c e r t a i n plants against o t h e r s . I think a g r i c u l t u r e i s still today t h e number one r a p i s t , in s p i t e of all t h e fuss about car emissions and industrial smokes.
Man and n a t u r e , however, did live t o g e t h e r reasonably w e l l f o r t h e half mil- lion y e a r s o r s o a f t e r t h e invention of f i r e , and t h e t e n thousand a f t e r t h a t of a g r i - c u l t u r e . W e must look f o r t h e mechanisms in t h e way man did behave in t h e p a s t , in o r d e r t o r e a c h t h a t effective compromise. If w e define a c u l t u r e as a formula f o r survival, w e shouid look t h e r e t o find t h e a p p r o p r i a t e c u l t u r a l p a t t e r n .
Such c u l t u r a l a t t i t u d e s being of necessity long t e r m , they must have been embedded d e e p , i.e. into reiigion. J u s t t o s t a y specific, in o u r greco-roman anti- quity, t h e most important element of t h e r e c i p e is probably animism. E v e r y tree, e v e r y spring, e v e r y stream, e v e r y hill had i t s g e n i u s Loci, i t s guardian s p i r i t . Before one c u t a tree, mined a mountain, o r dammed a brook, i t w a s important t o p l a c a t e t h e s p i r i t in c h a r g e and to keep i t placated. That provided t h e p r o p e r
r i t u a l t o keep t h e problem of t h e intrusion in sight and work out a p p r o p r i a t e compromises.
By destroying pagan animism, Christianity made i t possible t o exploit n a t u r e in a mood of indifference t o t h e feelings of n a t u r a l objects. For nearly two millennia Christian missionaries have been chopping down s a c r e d grooves which a r e idola- t r o u s because they assume s p i r i t in n a t u r e . The oniy countervoice w a s St. Francis of Assisi. He talked t o b r o t h e r wolf and persuaded him of t h e e r r o r of his ways.
The wolf r e p e n t e d , died in o d o r of sanctity and was buried in consecrated ground.
The r e a l miracle is t h a t St. Francis did not end at t h e s t a k e , but his message w a s certainly buried away. The C h r i s t i a n a r r o g a n c e toward n a t u r e i s now more vital than e v e r , although in t h e last twenty y e a r s a t h i n v e i n of d o u b t seems to be creeping in. Curiously, both in science a n d in technology. That is why we a r e h e r e in Venice by t h e way, pondering t h e issue.
My point i s t h a t the ecological problem i s before all c u l t u r a l , a n d because i t l a y s deep, r e l i g i o u s . I t f e e d s on o u r basic attitudes toward t h e world. These a r e v e r y slow to change, and t h a t is why t h e problem will b e difficult t o solve.
Coming t o b r a s s t a c k s , t h e f r u i t s of Christian a r r o g a n c e , Western science and technology, a r e making man's intrusion into t h e ecosystem s t a r t look quite dangerous. In s p i t e of t h e alarm signals we a r e not y e t as big as we think. The metabolism of t h e world f o r e s t s i s a good o r d e r of magnitude above a l l energy we consume, and t h e amount of materials they mine from t h e ground, i s a good match t o o u r mining industry. The d a n g e r i s more in t h e potential. When t e n billion people will behave as w e "the Western" do, t h e wolf will a l r e a d y be in t h e house.
On t h e o t h e r side e v e r y selfreproducing system keeps multiplying till t h e niche is full. Although man surreptitiously took t h e soul away from o t h e r living c r e a t u r e s , and endowed himself with rational wisdom, if w e look quantitatively at his behavior in t h e l a s t t e n thousand y e a r s , h e kept t h e niche duly filled up like
any o t h e r living c r e a t u r e . This means he will use t h e g r e a t powers t h a t science a n a technology c o n f e r t o him, t o k e e p numbers growing. Let us look how w e may f a c e t h e situation.
The g r e a t e s t b r e a k t h r o u g h of humanity a f t e r t h e discovery of f i r e in my opin- ion i s t h e discovery of n u c l e a r energy. This is because up t o now o u r only primary source of e n e r g y w a s t h e sun, mediated by plants, or d i r e c t l y , or via geological s t o r a g e s in form of coal and hydrocarbons. In a way or a n o t h e r this plugs us into t h e ecosystem.
But if w e zoom into t h e mechanisms, w e see t h e privileged position of plants in t h e system, and consequently of a g r i c u l t u r e , stems from t h e i r c a p a c i t y t o split water into oxygen and hydrogen with t h e f r chlorophyll. A l l t h e r e s t , including t h e reduction of C02 with hydrogen, c a n b e done by all s o r t of organisms.
This means if w e split water by a n o t h e r mean, e.g., through n u c l e a r e n e r g y and electrolysis, and w e feed i t to a p p r o p r i a t e p r o c e s s o r s , e.g., t o Ifydrogenomo- nus, we c a n brew o u r food a n d w r i t e o# a g r i c u l t u r e . This i s not a gleam in t h e eye. T h e r e are pilot plants in t h e universities of Graz and Gottingen producing p r o t e i n s and o t h e r things t h a t way. Selection and genetic engineering c a n expand t h e menu.
For t h e food conscious, I c a n tell t h a t taste and eating habits belong again to c u l t u r a l p a t t e r n s and c a n b e r e l e a r n e d . On t h e o t h e r side, t w o classes of food I think t h e most sophisticated in t e r m s of subtlety and v a r i e t y , come from t h e bland- est and insignificant r a w materials one c a n imagine, g r a p e juice and milk. On top of t h a t w e c a n c e r t a i n l y " b r e w " vegetable cells f o r special e f f e c t s , as i t i s done a l r e a d y to produce special chemicals.
Reversing t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l intrusion, and t h a t linked to t h e use of fossil fuels, aoes go o r d e r s of magnitude beyond t h e wild dreams of t h e ecologists today, but I would aad a n o t h e r s t e p t o t h e logic, saying t h a t man h a s t h e basic technologies t o
retreat into his "walled c i t i e s " and symbolically switch the sun
on.
i.e. decouple completely from t h e ecosystem. Apart f o r t h e f e w p e r c e n t of t h e e a r t h s u r f a c e n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e city, and a c t u a l d e s e r t s would do i t , all t h e rest could b e left wild, f o r t h e children t o see t h e lions in p r o p e r context.Some y e a r s ago, t o tease my f r i e n d s in t h e Club of Rome ligue, I wrote a s h o r t essay, sketching how more o r less c u r r e n t technology could be used f o r t h e pur- pose. J u s t t o s t a y ferocious I took as c a r r y i n g capacity of t h e e a r t h
lo1',
onetrillion people. And I did show they c a n live a materially abundant life, at least f o r a thousand y e a r s , without depleting any r e s o u r c e .
J u s t t o give a n example of t h e solutions, t h e e f f e c t of t h e 1013 KW they use c a n b e easily canceled by painting white all human a r t i f a c t s , t o i n c r e a s e t h e albedo of t h e e a r t h . I t would b e just enough.
For t h e dowry of materials this intense humanity should dismantle a couple of mountain chains a n d r e c o v e r t h e elements. J u s t as r a r i t y led t h e bronze a g e into t h e i r o n a g e , aiuminum, magnesium and organics would b e t h e work h o r s e s .
The s i n i s t e r conclusion is t h a t if I a m r i g h t , humanity will in due time r e a c h t h e 10'' level. No niche in t h e e a r t h ' s history w a s e v e r i e f t half empty. The suggestion t h a t man will behave "rationally" although not t o b e r e j e c t e d in princi- ple, i s certainly against t h e g r a i n of ten thousand y e a r s of history.
An i n t e r e s t i n g example is given by development of a g r i c u l t u r e , s e e n from t h e point of view of i t s e n e r g e t i c s . Curiously, t h e r a t i o between edible e n e r g y output, and e n e r g y input in t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l system h a s been always constant ( b e f o r e t h e u s e of t h e fossil fuels) a n d equal to 40-50. I t w a s like t h a t in neolitic a g r i c u l t u r e as in t h e Chinese a g r i c u l t u r e of today. The only thing t h a t changed w a s t h e s p a t i a l density of production. The neolitic hunter-farmer needed approximately a s q u a r e kilometer of land p e r person supported. A Chinese f a r m e r one hundred m e t e r s s q u a r e . The densification i s by a f a c t o r of t e n thousand! The r a t i o n a l e i s t h a t t h e
maximization of numbers w a s privileged against any o t h e r possible objective. E.g., reduction of labor through t h e improved. technologies.
These considerations loom long. But w e can zoom into t h e next f u t u r e with t h e same logic. Much of man's intrusion is linked t o t h e massive use of fuels. W e s t a r t e d a t IIASA a conceptual scheme, later developed at t h e Kernforschungsan- lage Jiilich (KFA), and of MIT, w e christened "zero emissions". Here again t h e use of fossil fuels is "decoupled" from t h e atmosphere, with little o r negative economic penalty. But t h e problem of implementation wiil be above all cultural, and in any case it will t a k e long. The typical constant f o r t h e acceptance of a n innovation of this kind will be in t h e r a n g e of about fifty y e a r s .
This is t h e c o r e of my message: the core of the probLem is cuLturaL, and t h e a p p r o p r i a t e modifiers have t o be applied t h e r e . The intrusion of man is still puny if w e compare i t , e.g. with t h e intrusion of plants and t h e megacatastrophe caused by t h e introduction of oxygen in a reducing context. On t h e o t h e r side a whole panoply of "decoupling" measures a r e technically possible, including t h e total switch off. Like Longino's lance, o u r Christian a r r o g a n c e c a r r i e s inside t h e com- pensatory mechanisms.
Concerning t h e willingness of t h e system t o do t h a t , I am quite optimistic. The fact t h a t a bunch of expensive people m e e t in a n expensive place like Venice, t o discuss problems t h a t may become a c u t e a century from now, is certainly a good omen. But I will say something beyond this point observation. The analysis of hun- d r e d of cases on t h e dynamics of social and economic s t r u c t u r e s shows t h a t t h e system behaves like a n organism, with f e e l e r s , reactions, wisdom, occasional folly, and above all, rock solid selfconsistency.
The Leviatan revisited? Well, I will give only two examples out of t h e hundreds I worked out. The number of fatalities due t o motor car circulation did increase in t h e US t o g e t h e r with t h e number of c a r s . It was 25 p e r hundred thousand
population in 1928. A t t h a t time t h e r e where in t h e U S about 20 million c a r s . In 1985 t h e c a r s a r e about 140 million and t h e death toll is still 25 p e r hundred thousand, oscillating plus o r minus one. For t h e benefits of using automobiles, t h e system i s r e a d y t o pay i t s pound of flesh, but not more. What s t r i k e s me is t h e p r e - cision of t h e feedback regulation, and in p a r t i c u l a r t h e precision of t h e measure- ment. How t h e "system" may feel t h e difference between 25 and 26 i s jet-black mistery t o me. On t o p of t h a t c a r t r a f f i c death r a t e in most Western countries is just 25 p e r hundred thousand.
The second example is of different c h a r a c t e r and shows t h e cohordination, o r b e t t e r syncronization of t h e system at world level. All railway n e t s were s t a r t e d around t h e world during a period of about 50 y e a r s (again!) in t h e centerpoint of t h e last century. The cumulative numbers of " s t a r t e r s " (the inauguration d a t e s of t h e f i r s t line of e a c h net) f i t perfectly a logistic c u r v e . This means t h e whole operation w a s c o h o r d i n a t e d presumably through information links. And t h e system i s s o selfconsistent t h a t by taking t h e f i r s t half of t h e inaugurations, one would have predicted e a c h one in t h e second half with a precision of months. (Although not where. I have not yet developed a model f o r spatial cohordination!)
S o o u r real task is t o clarify, quantify, discover. invent, p r e p a r e t h e context f o r t h e "system", which i s all of us informationally linked, t o wisely a c t .
