Some Demographic Aspects of Aging in the German Democratic Republic

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W O R K I N G P A P E R

SOME DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF AGING IN THE GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

Thomas Bfittner Wolfgang Lutz Wulfram Speigner

November 1987 WP-87-116

I n l e r n a l t o n a l I n s l l t u l e lor Applted Systems A n a y s ~ s

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SOME

DEIIOGRAPHIC

ASPEXX'S OF

AGING

IN THE

GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

Thomns B u t t n e r WoUgang L u t z WuZpram m e i g n e r

November

1987 WP-87-116

W o r k i n g P a p e r s a r e interim r e p o r t s on work of the International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and have r e c e i v e d only limited review. Views or opinions e x p r e s s e d herein d o not necessarily r e p r e s e n t t h o s e of t h e Institute or of i t s National Member Organizations.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

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Preface

If p e o p l e a r e going to l i v e l o n g e r , t h e n t h e community will h a v e a l a r g e r p r o - p o r t i o n of old p e o p l e . This i s t r u e , b u t o n l y if o t h e r t h i n g s r e m a i n t h e s a m e , a n d e s p e c i a l l y if b i r t h rates r e m a i n t h e s a m e . Rising b i r t h rates c o u l d c o u n t e r a c t im- p r o v e d s u r v i v a l . In f a c t b i r t h rates h a v e f a l l e n , i n t h e GDR as i n o t h e r i n d u s t r i a l - ized c o u n t r i e s , s o to t h e s u r v i v a l e f f e c t i s a d d e d a low b i r t h rate e f f e c t , a n d t h e l a t t e r i s t h e m a j o r c o m p o n e n t of a g i n g as i t i s a c t u a l l y o c c u r r i n g .

What a g i n g h a s t a k e n p l a c e so f a r , i n t h e GDR as e l s e w h e r e in t h e i n d u s t r i a l - i z e d w o r l d , i s s l i g h t c o m p a r e d with what i s e x p e c t e d t o t a k e p l a c e b e f o r e t h e new c e n t u r y i s much a d v a n c e d . T h e r e l a t i v e l y high b i r t h s t h a t followed World War I1 a r e now a d u l t s moving t o w a r d s t h e middle working y e a r s , and a g i n g will i n t e n s i t y in t h e f u t u r e . T h e p e o p l e b o r n in t h e l a t e 1 9 4 0 s a n d 1 9 5 0 s o f f e r p l e n t i f u l e x p e r i - e n c e d l a b o r , a n d t h a t h a s a l w a y s b e e n a c l e a r a d v a n t a g e f o r p r o d u c t i o n . But when t e c h n o l o g y moves v e r y r a p i d l y e x p e r i e n c e may b e c o m e i n a p p l i c a b l e , a n d t h e q u e s - t i o n i s t h e n w h e t h e r p e o p l e a t middle a g e s c a n u n l e a r n what t h e y know a n d d e v e l o p new s k i l l s . If t h e y a r e slow to d o so t h e s h o r t a g e of young p e o p l e will s e r i o u s l y h a n d i c a p p r o d u c t i o n .

This a n d a l l i e d q u e s t i o n s a r e n o t d i r e c t l y a d d r e s s e d in t h e p r e s e n t p a p e r , b u t i t d o e s p r o v i d e t h e d e m o g r a p h i c f r a m e w o r k f o r t h e i r a n a l y s i s . T h e p o p u l a t i o n p r o b l e m , w h e r e v e r t h e r e i s o n e , s h o w s i t s e l f as t e n d e n c i e s t h a t will d e v e l o p t h e i r a c u t e s t f o r m in t h e f u t u r e . T h a t i s why s o much of d e m o g r a p h y i s c o n c e r n e d with p r o j e c t i o n s or f o r e c a s t s . The p r o s p e c t s f o r i n d u s t r y with i t s p r e s e n t l y a g i n g l a - b o r f o r c e , t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r t h e o v e r a l l e f f i c i e n c y of t h e economy when l a r g e n u m b e r s s t a r t t o r e t i r e a b o u t 2 0 1 5 , t h e s o c i a l as well as t h e e c o n o m i c c o n s e - q u e n c e s of a n a g i n g s o c i e t y , t h e s e a r e t h e i s s u e s t h a t u n d e r l y t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of t h i s p a p e r . I t i s a n e x a m p l e of f r u i t f u l c o l l a b o r a t i o n b e t w e e n IIASA a n d s c h o - l a r s of a m e m b e r c o u n t r y .

N a t h a n K e y f i t z L e a d e r

P o p u l a t i o n P r o g r a m

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Contents

Page

INTRODUCTION

1. CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE GERMAN

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

1.1. Population Age S t r u c t u r e a n d S e x R a t i o 1.2. R e p r o d u c t i o n

1.3. Mortality

1.4. Migration a n d Regional S t r u c t u r e

1.5. Nuptiality a n d Marital S t a t u s Distribution

2. COMPONENTS OF THE AGING PROCESS

2.1. Age Distributional Changes 2.2. Mortality

2.3. F e r t i l i t y 2.3.1 P a s t T r e n d s

2.3.2 Sociological Findings: Social Conditions, Value P a t t e r n s a n d Needs

2.3.3 F u r t h e r T r e n d s

3. SELEClZD MULTI-STATE MODEL

3.1. Aging a n d Changes in t h e Marital S t a t u s Distribution

3.1.1 P e r i o d Multi-State Tables 3.1.2 Marital S t a t u s F o r e c a s t s

3.2. Changes in t h e S p a t i a l Population Distribution CONCLUDING REMARKS

REFERENCES

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DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF

AGING IN

THE

GEIUliIAN

DEMOCRATIC REFUBLIC

Thomas Biittner, WoZJgang Lutz a n d W u w a m a e i g w

INTRODUCTION

Like most o t h e r E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s t h e German Democratic Republic e x p e r i - e n c e s fundamental c h a n g e s in t h e a g e composition of i t s population. This d o e s n o t only h a v e direct e f f e c t s o n t h e s o c i a l s e c u r i t y system b u t also e x e r t s i n d i r e c t in- f l u e n c e o n a number of v e r y i m p o r t a n t s o c i a l v a r i a b l e s ranging f r o m living ar- r a n g e m e n t s to family l i f e s t y l e s a n d t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e l a b o r f o r c e up to socio- c u l t u r a l values.

Adverse q u a n t i t a t i v e e f f e c t s of c h a n g e s in t h e population's a g e s t r u c t u r e will n o t become a c t u a l l y d r a m a t i c until t h e end of t h i s c e n t u r y . However, socio- political m e a s u r e s to c o u n t e r a c t some of t h e s e problems should a l r e a d y b e implemented by t h e e n d of t h e c e n t u r y . F o r t h i s r e a s o n i n t h e German Democratic Republic, as in many o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , t h e r e i s n o t i c e a b l e political demand f o r s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h i n t h e field of aging.

The p r e s e n t p a p e r g r e w o u t of c o l l a b o r a t i v e r e s e a r c h between t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r Sociology a n d S o c i a l Policy (ISS) of t h e GDR Academy of S c i e n c e s a n d IIASA's Population P r o g r a m . This p a p e r i s b a s e d on two p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s p r e p a r e d by t h e ISS f o r IIASA, namely

-

Major r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d from t h e f i r s t a n a l y s e s of c a u s e s , c o u r s e a n d e f f e c t s of t h e s h i f t of a g e s t r u c t u r e i n t h e GDR, t h e p e r i o d 1982 to 2010" (December 1984).

-

"Demographic p r o c e s s e s in t h e r e g i o n s of t h e GDR, 1980 to 2010" (April 1986).

In t h e c u r r e n t p a p e r we t r y to highlight some of t h e major findings of t h i s p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h a n d a d d some new a s p e c t s to g i v e a c o n c i s e a n d r e l e v a n t p i c t u r e of demographic f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d with population aging i n t h e German Democratic Republic.

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1. CURRENT D E Y O G W H I C PROFILE OF THE GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

1.1.

Population Age Structure and

Scx

B a t i o

Population size and a g e s t r u c t u r e as well as t h e s e x r a t i o a r e not simply components of c u r r e n t social developments but have a l s o been affected by historical e v e n t s and social, economic, and demographic settings of t h e past. Moreover, t h e c u r r e n t demographic situation will determine to some e x t e n t t h e demographic, social, and economic future. For t h i s r e a s o n w e choose t h e c u r r e n t s t a t u s of t h e population as o u r point of d e p a r t u r e f o r this study.

The last census held on 31 December 1981 r e c o r d e d 16.706 million inhabitants (resident population) in t h e German Democratic Republic. With 154 persons p e r s q u a r e kilometer t h e GDR i s among t h e most densely populated c o u n t r i e s of Eu- r o p e .

By t h e end of 1985 t h e population amounted t o 16.640 million inhabitants. The uneven a g e distribution and t h e disproportions of s e x e s within t h e h i g h e r a g e g r o u p s (preponderance of women) have imparted and will impart special dynamics t o t h e population development. I t is, to a l a r g e e x t e n t , f o r t h i s r e a s o n t h a t demo- g r a p h i c p r o c e s s e s often exhibit g r e a t annual fluctuations.

For historical r e a s o n s mainly, two world w a r s and a history of higher life expectancy of females, t h e r e i s a t o t a l e x c e s s of women o v e r men beginning at a g e 40. In 1985 1.092 million females more t h a n males were r e c o r d e d in t h e a g e g r o u p s above a g e 40.

In 1985 t h e o v e r a l l s e x r a t i o (defined as t h e number of females p e r 100 males) w a s 111; i t i s of d i f f e r e n t size f o r t h e main a g e g r o u p s of t h e population. The s e x r a t i o f o r t h e a g e g r o u p of children (0-14) w a s 95, f o r people in working a g e about 100, but f o r p e m o n s in pension a g e , i t deviates with a value of 195 significantly from t h e a v e r a g e .

With r e s p e c t t o t h e a g e composition of t h e population, different definitions and a p p r o a c h e s are possible. Especially in a planned economy g r e a t demand e x i s t s f o r detailed information on size, composition and development of a v a r i e t y of dif- f e r e n t a g e groups. T h e r e f o r e a system of a g e g r o u p definitions w a s e l a b o r a t e d and introduced into planning mechanisms. These definitions are r e l a t e d to such prede- fined c a t e g o r i e s as working a g e delimitation, but a l s o f o r smaller and more specif- i c a g e groups to b e applied t o t h e analysis of demand f o r k i n d e r g a r t e n o r school

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F i g u r e 1. Age s t r u c t u r e of t h e population by a g e a n d s e x in 1985.

y e a r s of a g e

men

e x c

95

h

^women

t h o u s a n d s o f p e r s o n s

enrollment.

The most i m p o r t a n t a g e groups-children, working a g e , pension a g e h e t i r e m e n t age--are i n t h e

GDR

officially defined as follows:

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c h i l d r e n : from 0 t o 13 y e a r s , plus 7/12 of p e r s o n s a g e d 1 4 ;

working a g e : from 15 t o 6 4 (males) o r 5 9 (females), plus 5/12 of p e r s o n s a g e d 1 4 ;

r e t i r e m e n t age: from 65 f o r males o r 6 0 f o r females r e s p e c t i v e l y .

F o r r e a s o n s of i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparability in t h i s s t u d y , we u s e a n o t h e r classifica- tion of b r o a d a g e g r o u p s :

children: 0 t o 1 4 ; working a g e : 15 to 59;

a g e d p e r s o n s : 60 and o l d e r .

F o r t h e t o t a l population in 1 9 8 5 t h e t h r e e main a g e g r o u p s amounted to 3.19 million of c h i l d r e n , 10.40 million f o r p e o p l e in working a g e , and 3.04 million in old- er a g e s (pension a g e ) .

Consequently, t h e p e r c e n t a g e of c h i l d r e n was 19.21., of p e o p l e in working a g e 62.52, a n d of a g e d p e r s o n s 18.3x.l Superimposed t o t h i s are significant d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e s e x e s . The p e r c e n t a g e of a g e d women (23.9%) i s r e m a r k a b l y h i g h e r t h a n t h a t of a g e d males (13.1%).

Table 1 . Dependency r a t i o s , G D R , 1985.

Population a g e d Dependency r a t i o s 0-14 p e r 1000

of population I Total 0-14 6 0 t a g e d 6 0 t i

599 307 292 1050 I

The dependency r a t i o s which a l s o r e f l e c t t h e population a g e s t r u c t u r e indicate a f a i r l y f a v o r a b l e demo-economic c u r r e n t situation as compared with t h e p a s t , as well as with mid-term p r o j e c t i o n s of c h a n g e s in t h e population a g e struc- t u r e (section 2.1). In o t h e r words, c u r r e n t l y t h e c o h o r t s b o r n d u r i n g t h e high f e r - tility p e r i o d a f t e r World War I1 ( t h e so-called "baby boom") are in t h e i r working

here

i s , of course, a slight difference between such indicators based on the age breakdown offi- cially used in the CDR and those used here. For instance, the percentages according t o national de- finitions are (for t o t a l population): 18.6% chiIdren, 64.8% in working age, and 16.6% in pension age.

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ages. Not b e f o r e t h e s e c o h o r t s r e a c h retirement a g e , will t h e situation become critical.

1.2. Reproduction

In 1985 227,648 life b i r t h s had been r e c o r d e d which makes a c r u d e birth r a t e of 13.7. A t t h e same time t h e r e were 225,353 deaths, implying a c r u d e death rate of 13.5. This setting yielded a n e x c e s s of 2,295 thousand life b i r t h s o v e r d e a t h s - o r 0.2 p e r thousand inhabitants.

The Total Fertility R a t e (TFR) w a s 1.73 in 1985 which c a n b e viewed as about 0.83X of replacement. A special f e a t u r e of fertility in t h e GDR i s i t s concentration on young a g e g r o u p s .

Figure 2. Age-specific fertility in t h e GDR, 1985.

The highest age-specific fertility r a t e w a s observed in t h e a g e group 22-23 (166.4); a l r e a d y around t h e a g e of 35 y e a r s t h e r e p r o d u c t i v e c a r e e r of women i s almost finished: more t h a n 98% of t h e TFR happened up t o t h i s age. Even up t o t h e

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a g e of 30 more than 91% of period fertility i s completed. This special p a t t e r n of high a g e concentration of fertility h a s also been r e f l e c t e d by t h e a c t u a l p a r i t y distribution of births. In 1985 t h e p e r c e n t a g e of f i r s t o r d e r b i r t h s was 48.5%; of second o r d e r 37.0% t h i r d o r d e r 10.6%. and all o t h e r o r d e r s t o g e t h e r amounted t o not more than 3.9%.

1.3. Mortality

Figure 3. Age-specific d e a t h r a t e s (according t o life table f o r 1984/85).

Due t o t h e specific a g e s t r u c t u r e of t h e GDR population t h e absolute number of annual d e a t h s h a s been relatively high during r e c e n t y e a r s . Already since 1955 t h e c r u d e d e a t h rates have always been somewhat above 1 2 p e r thousand (13.5 in 1985).

The latest life t a b l e available ( f o r t h e 1984/85 period) shows a life expectan- c y f o r newborn males of 69.45 y e a r s and of 75.29 y e a r s f o r newborn females. The infant mortality rate was f a i r l y low (9.4 p e r thousand in 1985). The a g e p a t t e r n of

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mortality follows t h e well-known J-curve, w h e r e at e a c h a g e male mortality i s h i g h e r t h a n female mortality with t h e g r e a t e s t g a p between a g e s 2 0 a n d 25. This d i f f e r e n c e i s mainly d u e to a h i g h e r r i s k of a c c i d e n t s f o r males.

1.4. Migration and Regional Structure

T h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n c e n t r a t i o n in t h e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of population between t h e c a p i t a l Berlin, t h e 1 4 d i s t r i c t s , 2 8 u r b a n a n d 1 9 1 r u r a l c o u n t i e s to- g e t h e r with 7550 communities. A r e m a r k a b l e s h a r e of t h e population i s living in l a r g e c i t i e s . 26.4% of t h e population live in 15 c i t i e s with more t h a n 100,000 inhabitants. Only 23.41 of t h e population i s living in communities with l e s s t h a n 2,000 inhabitants. This s e t t l e m e n t s t r u c t u r e , as well as t h e t o t a l distribution of t h e population at l a r g e , i s substantially influenced by p a s t s t r e a m s of i n t e r n a l migration r a t h e r t h a n d i f f e r e n t i a l s in n a t u r a l growth. The t o t a l s c o p e of i n t e r n a l migration h a s , in t h e long r u n , declined in i t s volume.

Table 2. I n t e r n a l migration flows: number of migrants c r o s s i n g c o u n t y - b o r d e r , 1955-1983 (in thousands).

Y e a r M a l e s F e m a l e s T o t a l

S t i l l at t h e beginning of t h e 1960s more t h a n 600,000 p e r s o n s c h a n g e d t h e i r p l a c e of r e s i d e n c e annually (e.g. i n t e r n a l migration beyond t h e b o r d e r s of coun- t i e s ) . Within t h e 1 9 6 0 s t h e volume of i n t e r n a l migration was r e d u c e d to half a n d in t h e 1970s it remained unchanged at a b o u t 300,000 cases of migration p e r annum.

The i n t e r n a l migration of t h e GDR i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a well-balanced s e x r a t i o . Migration in t h e

GDR

h a s , f o r d e c a d e s , b e e n done f r o m t h e small communities i n t o medium-type communities a n d especially i n t o t h e l a r g e s t towns or c i t i e s . The biggest migration losses h a v e a g a i n been s u f f e r e d by t h e smallest communities with a s i z e of below 2000 inhabitants. w h e r e a s t h e big c i t i e s with m o r e t h a n 100,000 in- h a b i t a n t s show t h e g r e a t e s t gain f r o m migration.

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E x t e r n a l migration had contributed to changes in t h e a g e composition on t h e national level. In t h e fifties t h e r e had been a population loss of around 2 million people, mainly in working a g e due to migration into t h e

GFR.

1.5. Nuptiality and Marital Statas Distributions

Table 3. Marital s t a t u s : population o v e r 18 y e a r s by s e x and marital s t a t u s (in p e r c e n t a g e s ) .

1

N e v e r

I

Y e a r T o t a l M a r r i e d M a r r i e d W i d o w e d D i v o r c e d M A L E S

(

F E M A L E S

I

1

In 1985 131,514 m a r r i a g e s were c o n t r a c t e d . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e dissolutions of m a r r i a g e s (by death of spouse and divorce) amounted to 140,143, t h a t i s a n e x c e s s of dissolutions o v e r m a r r i a g e s by 8,629. The death of a spouse contributed with 88,903 and d i v o r c e with 51,240 to t h e t o t a l amount of marriage dissolutions.

With 30.8 d i v o r c e s p e r 10,000 of population, t h e t o t a l level of d i v o r c e i s f a i r l y high. Under t h e c u r r e n t nuptiality p a t t e r n about e v e r y fifth m a r r i a g e i s e x p e c t e d to b e divorced.

In t h e last f o u r d e c a d e s we may distinguish between two periods. From t h e e a r l y f i f t i e s to 1964 o n e could o b s e r v e a continuous e x c e s s of m a r r i a g e s and r e m a r r i a g e s o v e r m a r r i a g e dissolutions. As a r e s u l t t h e number of m a r r i e d couples i n c r e a s e d by half a million. From 1964 until now in e v e r y y e a r , with t h e exception of 1977. _moredissolutions of m a r r i a g e s o c c u r r e d t h a n m a r r i a g e s were c o n t r a c t e d . This r e s u l t e d in a d e c r e a s e of t h e t h e number of m a r r i e d couples d e c r e a s e d by some 140 thousand. Consequently, t h e marital s t a t u s s t r u c t u r e of r e s i d e n t population changed slowly b u t significantly. The changes r e l a t e , in p a r t i c u l a r , to t h e a g e s

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between 18 and 40 y e a r s .

A s a r e s u l t of d e c r e a s i n g frequencies of m a r r i a g e s as w e l l as increasing f r e - quencies of d i v o r c e , t h e proportion of married population fell in f a v o r of n e v e r married and divorced persons. In t h e explanations of t h i s phenomenon, s e x dif- f e r e n t i a l s play a major r o l e . The i n c r e a s e in t h e number of n e v e r married p e r s o n s originates t o a l a r g e e x t e n t from a growing number and proportion of n e v e r m a r - r i e d males; t h e p e r c e n t a g e of n e v e r married females h a s i n c r e a s e d only slightly.

A t t h e s a m e time t h e proportion of married m a l e s h a s d e c r e a s e d .

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2. COMPONENTS OF THE A G M G PROCESS

The p r o c e s s of population aging i s t o b e viewed as a long-term p r o c e s s . Many of t h e c u r r e n t phenomena s e e n as aging-related are outcomes of e v e n t s in t h e p a s t . Hence, t h e c u r r e n t d e m o g r a p h i c s i t u a t i o n will h a v e i m p a c t s on t h e f u t u r e as well. The g e n e r a t i o n s who will e x p e r i e n c e a t h o r o u g h l y a g e d s o c i e t y are a l r e a d y b o r n t o d a y . Assuming t h e same r e t i r e m e n t r e g u l a t i o n s as today, t h e newborn gen- e r a t i o n of 1987 will r e t i r e i n 2047 if female, a n d in 2052 if male, a p e r i o d t h a t i s n o t c o v e r e d by usual population p r o j e c t i o n s .

F e r t i l i t y a n d mortality are t h e main d e m o g r a p h i c components of population aging. Because of t h e overwhelming i m p o r t a n c e f e r t i l i t y h a s f o r t h e population development, t h e main a t t e n t i o n h a s b e e n given to f e r t i l i t y . F e r t i l i t y i s t h e com- p o n e n t t h a t h a s e x h i b i t e d t h e most r e m a r k a b l e dynamics of c h a n g e , in t e r m s of t h e a b s o l u t e a n d r e l a t i v e amount of c h a n g e within t h e l a s t f o u r d e c a d e s . Much m o r e t h a n m o r t a l i t y , f e r t i l i t y i s s u b j e c t t o a high amount of individual a n d s o c i e t a l con- t r o l , which makes i t d e p e n d e n t on a wide v a r i e t y of non-demographic f a c t o r s .

F o r t h i s r e a s o n , in t h e following s e c t i o n w e will e x t e n d t h e p u r e l y demograph- i c a n a l y s i s t o look a t some sociological dimensions of r e p r o d u c t i v e b e h a v i o r , t h a t i s to a s k f o r t h e motivations a n d value p a t t e r n s behind t h e d e m o g r a p h i c e v e n t s re- g i s t e r e d in v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s .

Less a t t e n t i o n i s given to mortality as a component of aging. The f i g u r e s a n d estimations given in t h i s s t u d y s e e m to s u p p o r t t h e assumption t h a t c u r r e n t mortality p a t t e r n s a r e r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e , b u t t h e y d o n o t p r o v i d e u s with a c e r t a i n mortal- i t y s c e n a r i o . N o d o u b t , m o r e a t t e n t i o n h a s to b e given to t h e a n a l y s i s of possible f u t u r e c h a n g e s in mortality which seems to b e a t a s k of i t s own.

B e f o r e studying t h e individual components of aging, w e will h a v e a c l o s e look at p a s t , p r e s e n t , a n d p r o j e c t e d f u t u r e c h a n g e s in t h e population's a g e s t r u c t u r e . Our f o c u s will b e t h e p e r i o d 1950 to 2010 f o r m o r e d e t a i l e d s t a t i s t i c s a n d t o 2030 f o r a long-run p r o s p e c t i v e .

2.1.

Age Distributional Chawes

When studying t h e p r o c e s s of aging i t i s of c e r t a i n i n t e r e s t t o look at both t h e a b s o l u t e c h a n g e s in t h e s i z e of c e r t a i n / b r o a d a g e g r o u p s a n d t h e r e l a t i v e s h a r e s of t h e s e a g e g r o u p s in t h e t o t a l population. F o r some socio-economic q u e s t i o n s t h e a b s o l u t e numbers a p p r o a c h i s m o r e a p p r o p r i a t e , f o r o t h e r s t h e r e l a t i v e a p p r o a c h .

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In this study we will consider both.

Besides t h e quantitative description of a g e distributional changes by c e r t a i n indicators, e.g. dependency r a t i o s , i t i s v e r y instructive t o study t h e development visually. A visual 3-D view helps t o identify t h e major f e a t u r e s of t h e p a t t e r n and, on t h e o t h e r hand, includes t h e complete age-specific information, t h a t i s lost in t h e c a s e of summary indicators.

Figures 4 and 5 give an impression of a g e distributional changes f o r both t h e past t h r e e decades and t h e next f o u r decades by using a 3-D plot of population a g e distribution f o r male and females, respectively. The plots are based on t h e population by five-year a g e groups f o r e v e r y five-year period from 1950 t o 2030. F o r t h e period 1950 t o 1985 d a t a from national s t a t i s t i c s had been used, and f o r t h e period from 1990 t o 2030, t h e r e s u l t s of s t a t u s q u o f o r e c a s t had been plotted with t h e initial d a t a of 1985.

Although somewhat smoothed, t h e plots clearly show t h e long-term conse- quences of t h e i r r e g u l a r a g e distribution of GDR population, reflecting both population losses during t h e time a f t e r World War I and t h e e f f e c t s of World War 11. The p i c t u r e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by s e v e r a l ridges running along t h e c o h o r t lines from back t o f r o n t . To t h e v e r y r i g h t you have g r e a t c o h o r t s born b e f o r e World War I t h a t still were s u b j e c t t o high mortality; f o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e ridge declines rapidly.

A f t e r t h e low c o h o r t s of t h e w a r and depression y e a r s , fertility r e a c h e s a n o t h e r peak r i g h t a f t e r World War 11, followed by t h e peak of t h e baby boom t h a t was b o r n at t h e end of t h e fifties and during t h e 1960s. The r i d g e of t h e baby boom i s expected t o d e c r e a s e much l e s s t h a n previous r i d g e s because of lower mortality (and possibly reduced outmigration). To t h e v e r y l e f t w e see a n o t h e r r a t h e r weak r i d g e , t h e e c h o of t h e baby boom, i.e. t h e g r e a t c o h o r t s of young women will again give birth t o a g r e a t e r absolute number of children when t h e y a r e in t h e i r prime child- bearing ages.

Considering broad a g e g r o u p s t h e a g e s t r u c t u r e changed from 1950 up t o t h e 1980s as follows (see Table 4). From 1950 t o t h e beginning of t h e 1970s t h e p e r - centage of people in economic a c t i v e a g e s d e c r e a s e d significantly from 61% t o 54.7% and t h e s h a r e of aged persons increased from 16.2% t o 22%. In t h e same period t h e p e r c e n t a g e of children fell and r o s e again.

A c l e a r t r e n d towards a n aging of t h e population w a s broken by t h e influences of a highly disturbed a g e s t r u c t u r e and t h e e f f e c t s of t h e post-war baby boom.

Consequently, a f t e r 1970 t h e r e w a s a temporary i n c r e a s e of t h e p e r c e n t a g e of people in working a g e , and a d e c r e a s e in t h e s h a r e of aged persons. The percen-

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Figure 4. Age distributional changes f o r females in t h e GDR, 1950-2030.

t a g e of children d e c r e a s e d , due to t h e l o w level of b i r t h rates.

A s compared to 1950, at t h e beginning of t h e 1980s t h e r e w a s a slightly lower Total Dependency Ratio (TDR). This i s also t r u e f o r t h e Children Dependency Ratio (ChDR) as w e l l as f o r Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR). In o t h e r words, at t h e beginning of t h e p e r i o d u n d e r consideration 1,000 p e r s o n s in working a g e were relat- e d to 640 people in non-working a g e , but in 1985 i t w a s only 599. may b e e x p r e s s e d through dependency r a t i o s as well. a significant i n c r e a s e in t h e TDR had o c c u r r e d , caused by a n i n c r e a s e in both t h e ChDR and OADR.

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Figure 5. Age distributional changes f o r males in t h e GDR, 1950-2030.

The GDR population continues to a g e up to t h e y e a r 2010 a t a rate t h a t may b e considered a c c e p t a b l e from a social and economic perspective. The t o t a l number of population will c h a n g e only marginally in t h e time p e r i o d u n d e r consideration.

The GDR population will by and l a r g e maintain i t s quantitative level until t h e middle of t h e 1990s followed by a decline to about 971. of i t s c u r r e n t level by t h e y e a r 2010.

The s t r u c t u r e of t h e b r o a d a g e g r o u p s considered h e r e will b e shifted in t h e direction of increasing s h a r e s of people in working a g e , and especially t h e aged.

While t h e number of people in working a g e i s e x p e c t e d t o remain relatively s t a b l e

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Table 4. Population by b r o a d a g e groups, 1950-1980, end of t h e y e a r .

Age groups 1950' 1955 1960 1964 1970 1975 1980

P o p u l a t t o n t n t h o u s a n d s

Total 18,388 17,832 17,188 17,004 17,068 16,820 16,740 0-14 4,202 3,718 3,678 4,045 3,970 3,591 3,271 15-59 ll.214 10,852 10,013 9,320 9,334 9,592 10,261 60

+

^2,972 ^3,262 ^3,497 ^3,639 ^3,764 ^3,637 ^3,208

I

P o p u l a t i o n t n p e r c e n t a g e s

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1 I

0-14 22.8 20.8 21.4 23.8 23.3 21.4

15-59 61.0 60.9 58.3 54.8 54.7 57.0 61.3

60+ 16.2 18.3 20.3 21.4 22.0 21.6 19.2

population a t 31 August

Table 5 . Dependency r a t i o s , 1950-1985.

Dependency ratios Population aged 0-14 per 1,000 population Year Total 0-14 60+ aged 60+

1950 640 375 265 1,414 1955 643 343 300 1,140 1960 716 367 349 1,052 1965 824 434 390 1,112 1970 828 425 403 1,055

1975 735 374 379 987

1980 632 319 313 1,020 1985 599 307 292 1,050

in absolute numbers, t h e number of aged people will i n c r e a s e . Compared with 1980, in 2010 t h e r e will b e 215 thousand less people in working a g e (i.e. a d e c r e a s e by 2%), but 9 3 thousand aged people more t h a n 1980 (i.e. a n i n c r e a s e by about 3%).

Both s e x e s will b e a f f e c t e d by t h i s dynamic. T h e r e will b e a g r e a t e r d e c r e a s e in t h e total number f o r women t h a n of men.

The s h a r e of t h e male working a g e population i s expected to i n c r e a s e until t h e mid-1990s approaching t h e same level as i t had in 1980 (64.4%). The r e s p e c t i v e p e r c e n t a g e of women will also i n c r e a s e . Especially t h e t r e n d in t h e p e r c e n t a g e of aged population indicates significant changes in t h e age-sex-composition which will happen in t h e f u t u r e . The relatively high s h a r e of aged females (23.5% in 1980) will not have changed at t h e end of t h e projection period (23.3% in 2010). On t h e o t h e r

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Table 6. Population by broad a g e g r o u p s 1990-2010, end of t h e y e a r .

Age groups 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

P o p u l a t i o n i n t h o u s a n d s

Total 16,702 16,606 16,462 16,309 16,110

0-14 3,387 3,262 2,999 2,811 2,763 15-59 10,324 10,296 10,105 10,091 10,046

60+ 2.991 3,048 3,358 3,407 3,301

P o p u l a t i o n C n p e r c e n t a g e s

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

0-14 20.3 19.6 18.2 17.2 17.1

15-59 61.8 62.0 61.4 61.9 62.4

60

+

^17.9 ^18.4 ^20.4 ^20.9 ^20.5

Table 7. Population by s e x and b r o a d a g e g r o u p s 1990-2010. end of t h e y e a r

Age groups 1990 1995 2000 2005

P o p u l a t i o n i n p e r c e n t a g e s

Males 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

0-14 21.7 20.8 19.2 18.1

15-59 65.1 67.7 63.8 64.1

60

+

^13.2 ^14.5 ^17.0 ^17.8

Females 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

0-14 19.0 18.5 17.3 16.4

15-59 58.7 59.5 59.1 59.7

60+ 22.3 22.0 23.6 23.9

hand, t h e p e r c e n t a g e of aged males will i n c r e a s e from 14.42 in 1980 t o 17.62 in 2010.

Population estimates until 2010 indicate t h a t t h e dependency r a t i o s are expected to f l u c t u a t e f u r t h e r , b u t not to t h e same e x t e n t as before. In t h e n e x t few d e c a d e s until t h e t u r n of t h e c e n t u r y , t h e TDR will slightly i n c r e a s e due to a signi- f i c a n t i n c r e a s e of t h e OADR. In t h e same time t h e ChDR will d e c r e a s e . A f t e r t h e y e a r 2000 t h e d e c r e a s e in ChDR will overcompensate t h e increasing OADR.

Although t h e TDRs in 1985 a n d 2010 are by a n d l a r g e equal in a quantitative s e n s e , a t u r n o v e r in t h e r e l a t i o n between children and aged people will h a v e happened.

P e r 1,000 aged people t h e r e will then b e 837 people aged 0-14.

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Table 8. Dependency r a t i o s , 1990-2010.

Dependency r a t i o s Population aged 0-14 p e r 1,000 population

Y e a r Total 0-14 60+ aged 60+

1990 618 328 290 1.132

2000 629 297 332 893

2010 604 275 329 837

Summarizing t h e s e findings b r i n g s u s t o t h e conclusion t h a t in t h e n e x t few de- c a d e s some i m p o r t a n t economic conditions as e x p r e s s e d in t e r m s of dependency ra- t i o s will remain o n a l e v e l c o m p a r a b l e to t h e c u r r e n t situation, while at t h e same time t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between a g e d p e o p l e a n d c h i l d r e n will b e i n v e r t - e d .

2.2. Mortality

Due t o l a t e e f f e c t s of World War 11, t o c h a n g e s in morbidity, a n d t o t h e specif- i c a g e s t r u c t u r e of GDR population, t h e C r u d e Death R a t e (CDR) i s r e l a t i v e l y high as compared t o o t h e r developed c o u n t r i e s (Table 9). F o r males t h e C r u d e Death R a t e (CDR) i s almost 13 ( d e a t h s p e r 1,000), a n d f o r females more t h a n 11. S i n c e 1970 a slight tendency t o w a r d s a d e c l i n e in t h e male CDR h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d . Between 1 9 7 0 a n d 1 9 8 0 t h e male CDR declined f r o m 14.4 t o 13.8, b u t f o r females i t r o s e from 13.9 to 14.7. S i n c e 1 9 8 0 t h e t r e n d of slightly d e c r e a s i n g CDR c a n b e o s e r v e d f o r both male a n d female r a t e s , as d a t a f o r 1984 (12.6 f o r males, 1 4 . 4 f o r females) shows.

Age-specific mortality declined especially in t h e youngest a g e g r o u p s . Infant mortality h a s b e e n r e d u c e d significantly f o r both male a n d female b a b i e s ; f r o m 68.5 (1952) t o 1 4 . 2 (1980) f o r baby boys a n d f r o m 54.7 t o 10.3 f o r baby g i r l s . In t h e 1980s a f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n in infant mortality h a s b e e n achieved. The middle a g e g r o u p s show d i f f e r e n t b u t i n most cases falling tendencies. F o r h i g h e r a g e g r o u p s mortality r o s e t e m p o r a r i l y , e s p e c i a l l y f o r males. S i n c e 1 9 8 0 a t r e n d to- w a r d s a d e c l i n e h a s begun (Figures 6 a n d 7).

One of t h e m o s t s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e s of t h e mortality p a t t e r n i s t h e significant a n d r i s i n g d i f f e r e n c e between t h e s e x e s . In a l l a g e g r o u p s male mortality i s h i g h e r t h a n female mortality.

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Figure 6. Age-specific mortality in t h e GDR, males aged 60 and o v e r .

In t h e a g e group of 1 5 t o 60 t h e mortality of men i s about twice as high a s t h e mortality of women. F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e r e i s a t r e n d towards a n increasing s e x dif- ferentiation. The underlying causes are still, t o a l a r g e e x t e n t , unexplored. One known f a c t o r contributing t o t h i s situation is t h e o b s e r v e d d i f f e r e n c e in a t t i t u d e s towards one's own health and t h e use of medical c a r e , which r e s u l t s in a n advan- t a g e f o r women.

The m o s t obvious d i f f e r e n c e between male and female mortality i s between a g e s 15 and 20 where t h e m o s t significant mortality e x c e s s i s due to a c c i d e n t s (especially motorbikes). Among t h e aged population (60 y e a r s and o v e r ) differ- e n c e s between t h e s e x e s s t i l l e x i s t but t h e y s e e m not as important as i n younger a g e groups.

The t r e n d in life e x p e c t a n c y , especially those of newborn children, h a s docu- mented s u c c e s s in t h e country's health policy. In t h e p a s t decades i t w a s possible to achieve a marked i n c r e a s e in life expectancy. During t h e period 1955-1983 t h e l i f e expectancy of a newborn male rose by 3.68 y e a r s and t h a t of a newborn female

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- 18 -

Figure 7 . Age-specific mortality in the GDR, females aged 60 and o v e r .

500

Figure 8. S e x differentials in mortality in the GDR, population aged 60 and o v e r ; male mortality as a p e r c e n t a g e of female.

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by e v e n 5.5 y e a r s . A s mentioned b e f o r e , t h e i n c r e a s e in l i f e e x p e c t a n c y i s p r i m a r i - ly d u e to a marked a n d s u s t a i n e d r e d u c t i o n in i n f a n t a n d c h i l d mortality. By con- t r a s t , l i f e e x p e c t a n c y for males a b o v e a g e 30 o r females o l d e r t h a n 60 h a s remained almost c o n s t a n t or shows only l i t t l e p r o g r e s s . The d i f f e r e n t i a l s between males a n d females h a v e also grown in terms of life e x p e c t a n c y .

Table 9. Male age-specific mortality rates as a p e r c e n t a g e of female a g e - s p e c i f i c mortality r a t e s , 1952-1980.

Age 1952 1955 1960 Total 118.8 119.1 117.5 0 125.2 128.0 129.6 1-4 117.4 110.0 126.7 5-9 142.9 160.0 150.0 10-14 180.0 150.0 166.7 15-19 144.4 183.3 260.0 20-24 142.9 177.8 200.0 25-29 126.7 130.8 180.0 30-34 105.3 112.5 150.0 35-39 119.2 115.0 122.2 40-44 125.0 124.1 137.5 45-49 137.0 142.1 142.1 50-54 158.5 153.4 160.7 55-59 162.1 170.9 184.5 60-64 158.2 161.3 188.3 65-69 134.3 146.7 164.7 70-74 122.2 128.2 140.2 75-79 112.5 114.1 121.1 80-84 112.2 113.8 113.2 85-89 112.9 111.5 113.4 90+ 106.2 111.0 119.1

With r e s p e c t to s o c i a l f a c t o r s mortality a n d life e x p e c t a n c y show only l i t t l e d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n s . The d i f f e r e n c e s between m a r i t a l s t a t u s e s are negligible at y o u n g e r a g e s b u t i n c r e a s e slightly with a g e . Regional d i f f e r e n t i a l s in l i f e e x p e c - t a n c y are a n o t h e r socially induced phenomenon. Between t h e r e g i o n with t h e h i g h e s t a n d t h a t with t h e lowest life e x p e c t a n c y f o r a newborn t h e r e i s a d i f f e r - e n c e of .9 y e a r s f o r males a n d of .72 y e a r s f o r females. With i n c r e a s i n g a g e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s diminish.

The g a n e r a l i n c r e a s e in life e x p e c t a n c y was accompanied by a significant c h a n g e in t h e s t r u c t u r e of c a u s e s of d e a t h . The m a j o r t e n d e n c i e s h a v e e x i s t e d a l - r e a d y s i n c e t h e s e c o n d half of t h e p a s t c a n w r y . The c a u s e s of d e a t h "infectious

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d i s e a s e s " and "tuberculosis" t h a t w e r e still significant in t h e y e a r s a f t e r World War I1 are today s c a r c e l y of a n y importance. By c o n t r a s t , t h e "malignant neo- plasms" h a v e i n c r e a s e d in weight up to t h e middle of t h e 1960s a n d s i n c e t h e n t h e y h a v e stabilized o n a r e l a t i v e l y high level. The d i s e a s e s of t h e h e a r t a n d c i r c u l a t o - r y system h a v e continuously h a d a n i n c r e a s i n g t e n d e n c y as c a u s e of d e a t h . They c l e a r l y mark t h e t o t a l c h a r a c t e r of t h e d e m o g r a p h i c p r o c e s s u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n .

Summarizing t h e points made a b o v e i t seems justifiable to assume s t a b l e mor- t a l i t y p a t t e r n s f o r a mid-term p r o j e c t i o n p e r i o d .

Table 10. A v e r a g e l i f e e x p e c t a n c y of newborns, 1955-1984.

Difference

j

Year Males Females (males - females)

1

4 1955 65.78 69.92 4.14 1

1960 66.49 71.35 -4.86 I

I

2.3. Fertility

2.3.1. P a s t Trends

During t h e l a s t f o u r d e c a d e s t h e GDR population h a s shown a r e l a t i v e l y wide r a n g e of d i f f e r e n t f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s . The annual number of live b i r t h s f l u c t u a t e d between 310.8 thousand (1951), 271.4 thousand (1958), 301.5 thousand (1963), 179.1 thousand (1974), a n d 245.1 thousand in 1980. In 1984 in t h e GDR 227.648 c h i l d r e n w e r e b o r n . The Total F e r t i l i t y R a t e (TFR) in t h e p a s t t h r e e d e c a d e s was a l s o c h a r a c t e r i z e d by g r e a t fluctuations. The h i g h e s t values w e r e o b s e r v e d in 1951 with 2.49 a n d in 1964 with 2.44, r e s p e c t i v e l y . In 1974 a minimum was r e a c h e d with a

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TFR of only 1.54. Since t h e y e a r 1971 t h e TF'R has fallen below t h e replacement level. After t h e minimum of 1974 t h e total fertility r a t e recovered somewhat and in 1980 i t reached a local peak a t 1.94. The most r e c e n t figure f o r 1985 gives a

TF'R

of 1.73.

Figure 9. The period-TFR f o r t h e GDR, 1947-1985.

C d e n d o r Years

Because t h e total fertility r a t e s summarizes t h e information from all age groups in one indicator, s o m e information i s lost when t h e analysis is r e s t r i c t e d to t h e mean only. To avoid this shortcoming in Figure 10 w e will present a shaded contour map of a g e s p e c i f i c fertility rates (single y e a r s of age) o v e r time (also single years). A s described by Vaupel, Gambill, and Yashin (1987), such contour maps use the observer's geographical intuition and plot a 3-dimensional relation- ship on a plane life t h e map of a mountain, where d a r k shadings r e f e r to high lev- els of fertility.

Immediately a f t e r World W a r I1 t h e women in all f e r t i l e age groups experi- enced a n increase in age-specific fertility r a t e s . This w a s , with s o m e certainty, a compensation f o r t h e postponement of b i r t h s during t h e period of w a r . The r e a l

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Figure 1 0 . Shaded contour maps of trends in age-specific fertility r a t e s , GDR, 1950-1985.

Y e a r

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b a b y boom with i t s v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e in t h e l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y took p l a c e at t h e beginning of t h e 1 9 6 0 s . This phenomenon was s t r o n g e s t among y o u n g e r women.

At t h e s a m e time t h e o l d e r a g e g r o u p s s t a r t e d to d e c r e a s e t h e i r f e r t i l i t y c o n t i n u - o u s l y until t h e mid-1970s, so t h a t t h e e n d of t h e high f e r t i l i t y p e r i o d in t h e 1960s was c a u s e d mainly b y t h e r e d u c t i o n of f e r t i l i t y in o l d e r a g e s . T h e r e s u l t i n g c o n c e n - t r a t i o n of b i r t h s in t h e a g e g r o u p b e t w e e n 2 0 a n d 3 0 a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h e t r a n s i t i o n to a f e r t i l i t y r e g i m e w h e r e t h e two-child family d o m i n a t e s . W e c a n a l s o see t h e e f - f e c t s of t h e l e g a l i z a t i o n of a b o r t i o n at t h e beginning of t h e 1 9 7 0 s followed by a c o m p e n s a t i o n p e r i o d which was p a r t l y i n d u c e d b y a c o m p r e h e n s i v e p r o g r a m of socio-political m e a s u r e s . A s a r e s u l t t h e f e r t i l i t y l e v e l of most of t h e a g e g r o u p s s e e m to h a v e b e c o m e s t a b l e at a low l e v e l i n t h e 1980s.

T h e s e t r e n d s h a v e to b e s e e n a g a i n s t t h e b a c k g r o u n d of long-term a n d impor- t a n t c h a n g e s in t h e d e m o g r a p h i c b e h a v i o r of families, c o u p l e s , a n d individuals which in t u r n are d e t e r m i n e d by c h a n g e s in living c o n d i t i o n s , v a l u e p a t t e r n s a n d n e e d s of t h e families as mentioned a b o v e . In o r d e r to u n d e r s t a n d t h e t r e n d s in f e r - t i l i t y , i d e n t i f y i t s p o s s i b l e c a u s e s , a n d p e r h a p s a n t i c i p a t e f u t u r e t r e n d s , i t i s use- f u l to look a t r e a l g e n e r a t i o n s or c o h o r t s a n d t h e i r l i f e c y c l e . M o r e o v e r , a c o h o r t p e r s p e c t i v e e n a b l e s u s to i n c o r p o r a t e s o c i o l o g i c a l a n d o t h e r findings in o u r e x p l a - n a t i o n s .

T h e 1981 GDR C e n s u s p r o v i d e d , f o r t h e f i r s t time, d a t a of t h e b i r t h h i s t o r y a n d t h e f i n a l p a r i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n of women i n t h e GDR. As a v e r y i n t e r e s t i n g indicator of m a j o r c h a n g e s in t h e p r o c r e a t i o n b e h a v i o r , t h e Completed F e r t i l i t y R a t e (CFR) was c a l c u l a t e d . T h e r e s u l t s shown i n F i g u r e 1 2 p r o v i d e , b e s i d e s o t h e r s , a n o t h e r p i c t u r e of t h e post-war b a b y boom i n t h e GDR. But t h e most s u r p r i s i n g r e s u l t i s t h a t t h e s e c u l a r t r e n d of d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y c a n n o t b e s e e n at f i r s t a n d t h a t g e n e r a t i o n s b o r n b e t w e e n 1 9 1 0 a n d 1925 e x p e r i e n c e d a r e l a t i v e l y low f e r t i l i t y l e v e l .

While women b o r n b e t w e e n 1910 a n d 1920 r e a c h e d a CFR which a p p r o a c h e s r e p l a c e m e n t l e v e l , t h e f e r t i l i t y of women b o r n b e t w e e n 1920 a n d 1925 f e l l m a r k e d l y below t h i s level. Obviously t h e l a t t e r c o h o r t s w e r e p a r t i c u l a r l y a f f e c t e d by t h e immediate r e p e r c u s s i o n s of World War I1 in t h e i r f e r t i l e l i f e s p a n . T h e c o h o r t s b o r n 1926 to 1 9 4 0 ( b e t w e e n 1 9 7 1 a n d 1980 t h e y l e f t t h e f e r t i l e a g e ) a c h i e v e d a f e r - t i l i t y rate s i g n i f i c a n t l y a b o v e r e p l a c e m e n t l e v e l . T h e s e are t h e g e n e r a t i o n s of t h e post-war b a b y boom. I t i s r e m a r k a b l e t h a t t h e 1932 c o h o r t with a f i n a l n u m b e r of 2.315 c h i l d r e n p e r women s h o w s o n e of t h e h i g h e s t c o h o r t f e r t i l i t i e s of women b o r n i n t h i s c e n t u r y . All t h e following c o h o r t s h a v e shown s u c c e s s i v e l y l o w e r f e r t i l i t y r a t e s .

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-

24

-

E'igure 11. 3-D p l o t of age-specific f e r t i l i t y rates in t h e GDR, 1950-1985.

The d a t a on final p a r i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s e n a b l e u s to calcukate t h e R a t e of Child- l e s s n e s s (RoCln) of c o h o r t s . This i n d i c a t o r , defined as t h e p e r c e n t a g e of women without c h i l d r e n , may b e r e g a r d e d as both a q u a n t i t a t i v e a n d a q u a l i t a t i v e a t t r i - b u t e of f e r t i l i t y .

In t h e GDR t h e r e h a s b e e n a s t r o n g tendency towards a d e c r e a s i n g rate of childlessness. While t h e c o h o r t s b o r n b e f o r e 1920 had rates of childlessness between 16% a n d 17% a n d t h e 1922 c o h o r t e v e n of 18.7%, t h e following c o h o r t s de- c r e a s e d t h e i r childlessness significantly. In t h e 1932 c o h o r t 11.5% of women

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Figure 12. Cohort f e r t i l i t y in t h e GDR f o r women b o r n 1910-1940. Source:

Census 1981.

B ~ r t h Years

CI CFR - CFRM

remained without children, f o r t h e c o h o r t 1946 t h i s p e r c e n t a g e had a l r e a d y de- c r e a s e d to 7.7X. Note, t h a t at t h e time of t h e 1981 Census, t h e c o h o r t s b o r n a f t e r 1936 had not yet completed t h e i r f e r t i l e life span.

Combining t h e information from t h e c o h o r t f e r t i l i t y rate and t h e rate of childnesses yields a n o t h e r interesting result. To assess p r o c r e a t i v e behavior as well as to understand how society determines fertility, i t i s useful to c a l c u l a t e Com- pleted Fertility R a t e s not only f o r all women of t h e same b i r t h c o h o r t (and still alive) but also f o r mothers only. This means to sort t h e childless women o u t of t h e population at r i s k , which yields t h e so-called Completed Fertility R a t e of Mothers (CFRM). This identifies a s p e c i a l g r o u p of persons, who h a v e to solve t h e problems of aompatibility of motherhood and economic activity, f o r example (see also Figure 12). While t h e s h a p e of t h e a u r v e f o r completed f e r t i l i t y rate of mothers i s similar to t h e t r e n d of t h e a v e r a g e f e r t i l i t y (CFR), fluctuations b e f o r e t h e post-war baby boom are significantly smaller, especially f o r c o h o r t s which e x p e r i e n c e d p a r t s of t h e i r f e r t i l e life span during World W a r 11. A conclusion t h a t could b e drawn from

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Figure 13. R a t e s of childlessness in t h e GDR f o r c o h o r t s of women born 1910-1950. Source: Census 1981.

t h i s i s t h a t t h e temporary reduction of CFR by some c o h o r t s may have been caused by difficulties finding p a r t n e r s , because of t h e distorted a g e distributions and because of w a r activities which r e s u l t e d in a n increased childlessness f o r t h e s e cohorts.

On t h e o t h e r hand, f o r generations experiencing t h e i r f e r t i l e life s p a n e n t i r e - ly a f t e r World War I1 t h a t f a c t o r lost i t s importance. I t seems t h a t one of t h e rea- sons f o r a n increasing RoCln i s t h e f a c t t h a t more and m o r e women give b i r t h to a ohild i r r e s p e c t i v e of t h e stability of t h e i r relationships. Therefore, since t h e 1970s, t h e number and proportion of children b o r n out of wedlock have increased significantly. This p r o p o r t i o n amounts c u r r e n t l y to about one t h i r d of all live b i r t h s (34% in 1984). I t h a s to b e added, of c o u r s e , t h a t in t h e GDR unmarried mothers are not discriminated against and t h a t special help i s given to ^{them by}a set of specific social policy measures. Today t h e CFR, measuring a n a v e r a g e phenomenon, and t h e CFRM, indicating a n a s p e c t of heterogeneity in t h e population, d i f f e r only slightly.

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The finding i s o n e of t h e most i m p o r t a n t r e s u l t s of t h e p o p u l a t i o n p o l i c y a n d s o c i a l policy which i s aimed at making i t p o s s i b l e f o r e v e r y woman to fulfill h e r d e s i r e to h a v e o n e c h i l d o r m o r e c h i l d r e n . A s a r e s u l t i t h a s to b e r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e t e n d e n c y of lowering t h e a v e r a g e n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n p e r woman was accom- p a n i e d by a n i n c r e a s i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women in p r o c r e a t i o n . Note, t h a t d u r i n g t h e s a m e time p e r i o d t h e f e m a l e l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n rate also h a s i n c r e a s e d .

2.3.2. Sociological Findings: Social Conditions. Value Patterns. and Needs T h e m a t e r i a l living c o n d i t i o n s a n d t h e g e n e r a l v a l u e s p r e v a i l i n g in t h e s o c i e t y d e t e r m i n e t h e r e p r o d u c t i v e b e h a v i o r of s o c i a l g r o u p s , families, a n d individuals.

This i s p a r t of t h e way of l i f e of t h e s o c i e t y which t h u s f o r m s t h e s o c i o - c u l t u r a l f r a m e w o r k f o r t h e r e p r o d u c t i o n of i t s p o p u l a t i o n . T h e most e s s e n t i a l s o c i a l condi- t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g t h e c u r r e n t a n d f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t of f e r t i l i t y in t h e GDR a r e t h e following :

-

On t h e b a s i s of economic g r o w t h , s o c i a l s e c u r i t y f o r e v e r y c i t i z e n h a s b e e n e n s u r e d . S o c i e t y g u a r a n t e e s t h e s a t i s f a c t i o n of t h e b a s i c n e e d s f o r w o r k , f o r a d e q u a t e income, f o r e d u c a t i o n , l e i s u r e time a n d r e c r e a t i o n , f o r medical a n d s o c i a l care as well as f o r a s s i s t a n c e in case of i l l n e s s , a c c i d e n t , d i s a b l e m e n t . - The s t a t u s of t h e family a n d t h e i r way of living h a s b e e n h e a v i l y influenced by

i m p o r t a n t c h a n g e s i n t h e s t a t u s of women in s o c i e t y a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y in t h e family. Both s e x e s h a v e e q u a l r i g h t s in a l l s p h e r e s of s o c i e t y a n d p e r s o n a l life. In 1 9 8 4 49.4% of t h e l a b o r f o r c e w a s female. More t h a n 91% of t h e female p o p u l a t i o n c a p a b l e of working e i t h e r e x e r c i s e d t h e i r r i g h t to w o r k , or w e r e being p r e p a r e d to work. T h e d e g r e e of employment of women u p to t h e a g e of 50 d o e s n o t show a n y e s s e n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s as to a g e s t r u c t u r e , n o t e v e n in t h o s e a g e g r o u p s c a r i n g p r i m a r i l y f o r i n f a n t s .

The i n t e g r a t i o n of women i n t o t h e l a b o r f o r c e h a s b e e n c o u p l e d with m a j o r c h a n g e s in t h e i r l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n a n d t r a i n i n g . In 1983 a b o u t 80% of working women h a d a c o m p l e t e d v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g .

-

T h e two-generation family ( c o r e family) h a s b e e n g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d a n d p r e - v a i l s i n u r b a n a n d r u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t s . B i r t h , e d u c a t i o n , a n d care f o r chil- d r e n h a v e r e m a i n e d o n e of t h e p r i m a r y s o c i a l v a l u e s . T h e e s s e n t i a l p r e c o n d i - t i o n s h a v e b e e n c r e a t e d b y s o c i e t y making i t p o s s i b l e f o r women b o t h to care f o r s e v e r a l c h i l d r e n a n d b r i n g t h e m u p , a n d to b e employed at t h e s a m e time.

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Thus in 1 9 8 6 81% of c h i l d r e n in t h e a g e u p to t h r e e y e a r s w e r e p r o v i d e d with a p l a c e in a creches ( n u r s e r y ) , a n d in t h e a g e g r o u p t h r e e t o s i x y e a r s m o r e t h a n 90% went to t h e k i n d e r g a r t e n .

N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e e d u c a t i o n a n d care f o r t h e c h i l d r e n i s a g r e a t r e q u i r e m e n t to b e met by t h e l i f e of t h e family. T h e c o m p a t i b i l i t y b e t w e e n m o t h e r h o o d , family a n d p r o f e s s i o n a l employment h a s r e m a i n e d a p r o b l e m f o r t h e m a j o r i t y of working women with c h i l d r e n .

- T h e p o s s i b i l i t y of t h e woman a n d h e r p a r t n e r to d e c i d e f r e e l y o n t h e n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n as well as o n t h e time of t h e i r b i r t h h a s b e e n implemented in t h e GDR. This i s a t t a i n e d by a high l e v e l of family planning a n d t h e l i b e r a l i z a t i o r ~ of a b o r t i o n as well as by a f a r d e v e l o p e d p r o - n a t a l i s t i c s o c i a l policy.

T h e s e m a t e r i a l c o n d i t i o n s a n d s o c i a l v a l u e s a r e main c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h c way of l i f e of a l l s o c i a l g r o u p s . But t h e v a r i o u s s o c i a l strata e x h i b i t a l s o d i f f e r e n t . c o n d i t i o n s , t r a d i t i o n s , a n d h a b i t s . This i s t h e r e a s o n why v a l u e p a t t e r n s a r i s e in r e l a t i o n t o t h e b i r t h of c h i l d r e n which a r e , by a n d l a r g e , r a t h e r uniform, y e t at t h e s a m e time d i f f e r e n t (Meyer a n d Wendt 1 9 8 4 ) . The c e n t r a l v a l u e s are t h e following:

- family a n d p a r t n e r s h i p with c h i l d r e n

-

s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s within c o l l e a g u e s a n d f r i e n d s - p r o f e s s i o n a l a t t a i n m e n t s a n d d e v e l o p m e n t

-

a c q u i s i t i o n of c u l t u r a l v a l u e s .

The high p r i o r i t y a s s i g n e d to t h e c h i l d i s t y p i c a l f o r a l l s o c i a l g r o u p s . The g e n e r a l v a l u e p a t t e r n s are o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s a 2-child family. I t i s s e l f - e v i d e n t t h a t t h e e x p e c t e d n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n i s always somewhat l o w e r t h a n t h a t implied by t h e v a l u e p a t t e r n s , b e c a u s e i t c o m e s as a demand to b e c o n s i d e r e d in making t h e t o t a l i t y of n e e d s c o m p a t i b l e with e a c h o t h e r . S o c i o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s h a v e shown t h e following:

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- 29

-

T a b l e 1 1 . E x p e c t e d n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n : p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n , f e m a l e s .

Number of

children expected P e r c e n t a g e

0 1.5

I 19.9

1-2 7.1

2 53.0

2-3 8.4

3 7.6

more than 3 2.5

T h e r e i s a n a v e r a g e s i z e of 1.9 p e r female. This means a b o u t 90% of r e p l a c e - ment l e v e l .

T h e e x p e c t e d n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n i s d i f f e r e n t i a t e d in t h e s o c i a l s t r a t a . Socio- l o g i c a l s t u d i e s allow u s to d r a w t h e following c o n c l u s i o n s o n t h e f e r t i l i t y t r e n d f o r t h e n e x t d e c a d e :

W o r k e r s a n d e m p l o y e e s will n o t s u b s t a n t i a l l y modify t h e i r e x p e c t e d n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n . This means t h a t t h e y will fulfill t h e i r d e s i r e f o r 1-2 c h i l d r e n (1.8 c h i l d r e n o n a n a v e r a g e ) , with t h o s e e x p r e s s i n g a d e s i r e f o r t h r e e c h i l d r e n

( w o r k e r s 7 . 7 % , e m p l o y e e s 7.6%) fulfilling i t to a h i g h e r d e g r e e t h a n in f o r m e r times.

The a c t u a l family s i z e of f a r m e r s , who a r e s t i l l o r i e n t a t e d t o w a r d s s e v e r a l c h i l d r e n , will p r o b a b l y b e s o m e w h e r e a r o u n d t h e l e v e l of r e p l a c e m e n t . Spon- s o r e d b y a n u m b e r of s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l m e a s u r e s m o r e women t h a n h i t h e r t o will comply with t h e i r d e s i r e f o r t h r e e c h i l d r e n .

More highly e d u c a t e d p e o p l e will c o n t i n u e t o p r o n o u n c e a p e r c e p t i b l y h i g h e r d e s i r e f o r c h i l d r e n t h a n e x p r e s s e d by t h e n u m b e r of t h e i r a c t u a l l y b o r n chil- d r e n (1.7 c h i l d r e n o n a n a v e r a g e ) .

2.3.3. Further Trends

T h e a b o v e o u t l i n e d f i n d i n g s c a n b e summarized i n t h e following way: I t may b e e x p e c t e d t h a t u p to t h e t u r n of t h e c e n t u r y t h e a v e r a g e n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n p e r women will l i e b e t w e e n 1.7 a n d 1.9 c h i l d r e n . This c o r r e s p o n d s to t h e a c t u a l n e e d s a n d d e s i r e s of young families (Winkler a n d S p e i g n e r 1 9 8 6 ; S p e i g n e r 1987). This fig- u r e h a s also b e e n o b t a i n e d f r o m a p r e l i m i n a r y c a l c u l a t i o n b a s e d o n incomplete c o h o r t d a t a a n d using s o m e s i m p l e m e t h o d s a n d a s s u m p t i o n s . One a p p r o a c h w a s to

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assume s t a b l e f e r t i l i t y r a t e s f o r a l l women o l d e r t h a n 30 y e a r s and estimate t h e completed f e r t i l i t y r a t e s f o r c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o h o r t s .

This estimated t r e n d in c o h o r t f e r t i l i t y c a n b e accompanied by fluctuations i n t h e p e r i o d f e r t i l i t y r a t e s from y e a r to y e a r , having noticeable e f f e c t s on t h e number of b i r t h s . The a b s o l u t e number of b i r t h s up to t h e e n d of t h e twentieth c e n t u r y i s , on t h e o t h e r hand, l a r g e l y influenced by t h e f a c t t h a t s m a l l e r c o h o r t s of women will e n t e r t h e f e r t i l e a g e g r o u p s .

Table 12. Number of women in f e r t i l e a g e s p a n .

Number of women Year in f e r t i l e age 1982 100.0%

1985 97.9%

1990 95.6%

2000 96.1%

2010 89.1%

Under t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h e annual number of live b i r t h s t o b e e x p e c t e d in t h e n e x t 15 y e a r s will b e c l e a r l y below t h o s e s i n c e t h e beginning of t h e 1980s.