Ecological Sustainability of Regional Development

Ecological Sustainability of Regional Development

P r o c e e d i n g s of a workshop held in Vilnius, Lithuania, USSR, June 22-26,

1987

Editors:

L. K A I R I U K S T I S

+

A. BURACAS + A. STRASZAK +++

+

Environment Program. IIASA A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

** Lithuanian Academy of S c i e n c e s Vilnius, Lithuania, USSR +** S y s t e m s Research Institute

Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

I N T E R N A T I O N A L I N S T I T U T E FOR A P P L I E D S Y S T E M S A N A L Y S I S

P O L I S H ACADEMY 'OF S C I E N C E S . S Y S T E M S R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E

1989

FOREWORD .

In J u n e 1987, a n important international Workshop was held in Vilnius. Lithuaniar.

SSR on t h e topic, "Ecological Sustafnability of ~ s ~ i o n d l Development". The n ~ m b ~ l of p a r t i c i p a n t s numbered 65, coming from nine countries.

Many of t h e papers d e a l t with ecological-economic assessment methods used in Easl European countries f o r regional devalopment planning. Some of t h e ideas were quite new to environmental p l a n n e r s from western Europe. and a r e of g r e a t I n - t e r e s t to them. This i s one kind of s s r v l c e t h a t IlASA provides v e r y well

-

brine- ing people t o g e t h e r and bridglng language b a r r l e n in t h e East-Yes1 c n n l e x l IlASA is pleased to be associated with t h e 1987 Workshop and with t h e s e P r o c c e d - irqs

R.E. Munn L e a d e r

Environment Program. I I AS.4

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

G r a t e f u l a c k n o w l e d g m e n t is g i v e n to:

-

T h e L i t h u a n i a n Academy of S c i e n c e s , USSR, and t h e C o ~ n m i t t e e f o r S y s t e m s Analysis, Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e U S S R

-

f o r o r g a n i z i n g t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l W o r k s h o p on E c o l o g i c a l S u s t a i n a - b i l i t y of R e g i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t , Vilnius, L i t h u a n i a n SSR,

22-26

June, 1987.

-

T h e P o l i s h Academy of S c i e n c e s

-

f o r a s s i s t a n c e in p u b l i c a - t i o n of t h e s e Proceedings.

-

Many i n d i v i d u a l s w h o a s s i s t e d in o r g a n i z i n g t h e W o r k s h o p ( p a r t i c u l a r l y Ms. 0. V B l k e r a t I I A S A ) a n d in p r e p a r i n g t h e t h e p r o c e e d i n g s f o r p u b l i c a t i o n ( p a r t i c u l a r l y Ms.K.O'Connell

a t IIASA).

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

1.1 Ecological S u s t a i n a b i l i t y of Regional Development : Background

to

the Problem

-

L - K a i r i l k s t i s

...

¹

1.2 Ecological Problems: Their Study and Solution i n t h e USSR

-

g l o b a l

and

Local Aspects

-

A.L.Yanshin

...

5

2. PERCEPTION

OF

REGIOMAL SOCIO-ECONOUIC A N D ENVIRONMENTAL

SYSTEMS

2 . 1 The

Challerge

of S u s t a i n a b i l i t y

-

^The Search f o r a Dynarnical RelatiOnship between E a s y s t e m i c , Social and Emnamic Factors

-

U s m d i n

...

2.2 S o c i a l

Criteria ^and

Preference within b l c g l c a l l y Sustainable

...

Regional D w e l o p ~ e n t

-

^h.8uracas

2.3

EanaRic Criwia and

Tools i n Regional E n v i r m n t a l Manage-

mt -

^{K.Gcirm and}

1 . m t w ... .;. ...

3.

IMTERIPEPEWDEBCY BF REGIONAL, TRAUSREGIOIIAL ANTI 6L08AL

SYSTEMS

3.1

The 1 r b r n a t i o n a l Geasphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP): The Role

of

Observations

from

Swce

-

K.Ya.KondratYev

...

3-2 U.S.

and

Intematiorral Planning

for

the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Geo- sphere-Biosphere P r o g r a m

-

^J,A.Eddy

...

3 . 3 Acid Rain i n Europe: Modelling Reglonal and National

Implications

-

J.-P.MAelir@

and

L , W i j k

...

3.4 ~ r o c h r o n o l q j y

- an

Im+aumnt

t o

h a s u r e E n v i r o m n t a l

Changes -

0.Edcstein

...

3.5

Ecological Assessment of

the

Influence of Physical F i e l d s on

Living Drganisas

-

^6.Bmacas

...

-

^{v i i}

-

--.--- .

- -

4.

METHODOLOGIES FOR ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS

4.1 Evaluation and Methods of the Rational Use of Natural Resources

- V.Misauskas ... ¹⁰⁵

4.2 The Application of Ecological Strategies to Territorial Plan- ning - ^V.Statdas ... ¹¹⁷

4.3 Hierarchy of planning Levels as a Basis for Optimized Regional Ecological Management -

^H.Uuk

... ¹²³

4.4 Integrating Ecological Data Into Local and National Management of Wetland Ecosystems in the Williamstown, Massachusetts Area

-

U.R.Cbooaw

and

A.D.SouUnarth

... ¹²⁷

4.5 The Data Base for Forest Management in Lithuania -

L-Kairiukstis, J-Grigalimas and

S.Mitaras

... ¹⁴³

4.6 The Great Lakes: Experience in International Resource Management

-

V.V.Adadtus ... ¹⁵¹

4.7 Polish Case Study: Regional Impact of Large-Scale Mining and Energy Development

-

K.tblubowicz

and J.Y.llwsi&ki

and A.Stra- szak ... ¹⁵⁷

4.8 Improvement of the Organizational Structure for Managing the National Economy of a Union Republic taking into Account Ter- ritorial and Branch Interests - B.S.Bairiev and N.S.Kozerskaya 173 4.9 8io-Rational System of Farming in the Lithuanian SSR (USSR)

...

-

A.Onaitis 177

4.10 Path Studies of the Development of Agricultural Production in the Federal Republic of Germany: Systems Analysis Scenarios

and Corrprehensive Impact Assessment - H.Bassel ... ¹⁸³

4.11 Management of Forest Resources in Lithuania - Y.Antanaitis

and R-Oeltuvas ... ¹⁹⁵

4.12 Analysis of the Forest Sector in Regional Development -

...

L-Kairiukstis, S-Wizaras, L-Balcevic and A-V-Rutkauskas 203

...

4.13 Recreational Forest Use in Lithuania, USSR

-

E.A.Riepshas 229 4.14 Control of a Forest Policy System and its Optimizing Simulation

- T.Ki&ine ... ²³⁹

4.15 Future ~oliciei and International Cooperation in Reducing

Fores Oamage - L-Schotte ... ²⁵³ ...

4.16 Lithuania: An Example of a Regional System

-

6-Zaikauskas 263

4.17

Strategy of Natural Resource Utilization in the Lithuawian SSR

...

-

E . h 265

- ^viii -

5. M E T H O D Q L O G I E S FQR ECQNOMIC ASSESSMENTS

5.1 Economic Oevelopnent and Ecological Sustainabi1ity:Methodolo- gical Framework for Conflicts and Comprises

-

P . N i m and

F.Soetesran ... ²⁷¹

5.2 Interaction between Scientific Experts and Managers on the Basis of Systems for Analysing and Forecasting Productivity

- A.V.Ltkauskas and L-Kairilkstis ... ²⁸¹

5.3 Overall Structure of Decision Making with the Help of Expert Systems: A Modular Approach to Ecological Sustainable Develop- ment - ^J,Cbrovic ... .;.. . . . ^30s

6.

LONG-TERM I S S U E S

6.1 Stages and Trends in the Interactions between Human Society and the Environment from Neolithic to Present Times

- K.D.JagerandA.Bernhardt ... ³¹⁵

6.2 The Impact of Industry on Landscape and Enviro~lent on Austria from the Second Part of the 19th Century to 1914 - E - W a r n .. ³²⁷

6.3 Environmental Prospects for the 21st Century: Implications

for Long-Term Policy and Research Strategies - R.E.).Csm ... ³³⁵

6.4 Development of a Regional System of Industrial Waste Deconta- mination and Its Realization in the Lithuanian SSR

- J.Ya.&ldilovskij ... ³⁴⁵

6.5 The Profitable Combination of Waste Incineration and Wet Flue Gas Cleaning - A.Wahlstrh ... ³⁵³

6.6 An Approach to the Evaluation of Regional Environmental Programs

- R-Rayatskas and 1.Tchekanavitchyus ... ³⁵⁹

Appendix 1: Final Statement ... ³⁶⁶

Appendix 2: List of Participants ... ³⁶⁹ ...

Appendix 3: Agenda 375

PART I

INTRODUCIlON

1.1 ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABUJTY

OF

EtEGIONAL DEVELOF'MENT:

BACKGROUND

TO nu

P B O B u p

L

kid*

Drpul y Leader, h v l r o n m s n t Program

h%tanathnaL M i t u t e j b r App1i.d Wrnr A n d y &

A - W I Lcrrmnburg. A u r t t i o

Dmlng t h e M decade. a l m d all r e g l a n s of t h e world h a v e been u n d e r t h e process d ~ x r i a l . e o a r o a l o . demographic and snvironmental r e s t r u c t u r l z a t i o n . ilk f a c t r e s u l k from ihrw p r w e s s e s having world-wide Importance: globaUza- Uon of euoMmic p r o c e s a m . ahifta in teohnology a n d c h a n g e s In n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and b i o s p h o r l o oonditions.

The g l o b a l i e a h of t h e eoonomy and new b c h n o l o g l e s c r e a k new issues and almost e v e r y r e g i o n in e v e r y c o u n t r y shrb to f a c e new c h a l l e n g a . I r r e s p a c U v e of t h e acmial or insUtutional mechanism of eoonomic life. In an economlc s e n s e in t h e damatn of rmgional development problems, p r i o r i t y i s given to t h e question of c o m p e t i l i u m u s s o f a r e g i o n au o o m p a r d Lo o t h e r r e ~ i o n s . In o r d e r to r e a l i z e t h e p o t e n t i a l of a rugion, or to a c h i e v e t h e competitiveness of a n y region, human a c U v l t i e s h a v e usually been d i r e c t e d toward economic development of computer- alded manufacturing a n d oomputer-dded design of regional development s t r a - t e g i s s . l l e r e s o u r c e s and environment of the region h a v e b e e n c o m l d e r e d only as o o n s t r a i n i s , v a t ELL. But in f a c t , a region i s a human a c t i v i t y system, produc- ing economic, environmental, demographlc, and o t h e r transformaUons t h a t a r e p e r c e i v e d as m i e v a n t to t h e s u r v i v a l of a s p e c i f i c populaUon. T h e r e f o r e t h e s u s t a i n a b l e s u r v i v a l o f t h e h u m a n m i c r o - p o p u k t w n o r e t h n i c group within e a c h dofined g a c g r a p h i a a l s p a c e , within t h e region mrrst be considered as t h e main g o a l of m g l o n a l development.

Nevertheless. I n d W r l a l , a g r i c u l t u r a l and social development usually leads to t h e depletion of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and human environmental d e t e r i o r a t i o n . F o r e s t decline, land d e s e r t l f i c a t i o n , soil eroslon. and l a k e acidification a r e all examples of this. In some m g l o n s . t h i s p r o c e s s i s rapidly a p p r w c h l n g a d a n g e r o u s level, n o t only f o r t h e regions in question. b u t also f o r t h e b i o s p h e r e as a whole. T h e r e f o r e , t h e second domain i s emLoqical s u s t a i n a b i l i t ~ of r e g i o n a l systems which today a p p e a r s to be more imporlant t h a n e v e r b e f o r e and must b e c o n s i d e r e d on t h e same level as compatlMveness of regional systems as was previously considered in a n economic s e n s e . Only equallty of both domains c a n errnure p r o d u c t i v e human a c t i v i t i e s In a given region f o r a n indefinitely long Ume.

Environmental and socio-eoonomic systems are closely I n k r r e l a t e d at t h e local a n d regional levels. They are likely to be simultaneously sensltlve both t o global b i o s p h e r l c o h a n g e s as well as to c h a n g e s caused by r e s o u r c e depletion, a t m a r p h e r l c pollution and eco-cllmatic variations a t t h e regional level An I n t e g r a t e d a p p r o a c h to t h e assessment of the impact of ecological c h a n g e s i s

=In! E c o l ~ l m l J k u t a l n o b U l l y qfRe~LonaI &vclopruni, Procssdlngm o! a V~I3tCthop held I n VII- nlus. U L h u s ~ s . USSB, 22-26 J c n o 1987. L. KnIrluksLls. A. Buracas. and A. SLramcak mdm.), 1988, S y m t e m B w e s r c h InmtlLuLa. PoIlsh Academy d Sclsnces, Varmau. Poland.

- 2 -

therefore cruolal Lo the development of comprehensive m e m e n t strategies.

which Include a slOnIficant r e a b r a t k m component qnd p!~fide bdh ocmpstitfvs- ness and ecological s n ~ W m b i l . t k d raglcmal -.I.

The l n b m U o d l n s t l t u b fer A m & &~&'d8

QUSA)

has, slnce the early 1560s r l t N n Ib Progrw. b a n wdin d u d i a s on a d d rain, blosphem. and l won60 dn&m. rlhloh have M e rmfqps oonMbrrtfons b a b e t b r rmdsrrhndiq d r e g i d and pfoblem, and have also d e v d c p d math& and bdrr f o r thdr

e.

'ih. author baa p d k t p a b d In U ~ i s work. o&buUng 6paoiflnaUy ta dodiem M r b d m & m d o g y

and

lta appli- oaUom, and I n t e p r a t d eocutmh lrad r&ad ia#=a.

Uslng a mtwork of ccdlsboraUw arganlzaUoN~ &Uuhed in tmqre. Asia.

and Nor& Amorha. IIASA ha^ wanltsd I n b m a k h d rwtlngs on dlf- f e r e n t aqmob d e o a h g i a a l s & b t a t ~ d r e g l a d devebpmant.

Among thwe mwtinga us: _larkshrrp

oa

"Regfanal R m o e Ianagementw held In M b m , Bwarla in autumn 1985, w h n r t h e priwlpal approach to a n a l p ecaloglcal amhatmbiltty d m g l d -has k e n a s ~ h d . '

Dimensiom m q d r s r l in hflntng the bctondarlm

ab

r e g i d sy3tem%

-

b a s i a ~ l o n a l ~ L R o c - m w m w h ;

-

m a l ~ e w s w d o matar to be a d y m d ;

-

main factors caoltng inpseb or dMmbnma

an

e o d O g l c d s a t a l n a b l l l t y of regional syatams (mtutnl d m t b ohaapw and envfranrnenhl pdluhnta *re rho-.

PlnaUy, a class d hvmstigaticm ras dssfpned b: 1. rapor?,

en

the state-of- the-art In c a m st* regions; 2. undertake ecological aDdeUqg; 3. underlake ecologicdaoonomic modding; 4. aeek lnterfaae arEth potloy m e n .

Following the aaW abwe.

tbe

f a r a t wzm chossn ambmg t h e basic e w s p t e m components f o r spedal studias. As a f a a h cad- an ilapaaL on ecoloftcal sus- kinability of the r e g i d s y s t e m . chemical and physfcal snvLronmenhl changes w e n investipatod.

Wtth r e g a r d ta ahemioal anvironmenhl ohanges. aoM r a i n has been con- aidered. Within IUSA's Envinmment Program. _We Acid Raln h j e o t has o a r r i e d wt InvarUgatio118 oa the l ~ - l u r r n s f f s a b of soid deposition In Europe A p o l l c y d e n L e d model has been developed l o r me by intsrnatlonal and fegional or national deolslon h e r s . ~ s k l n g batter s t r a t e g i e s for emlsslon r d u c U o n . Several InLernatlonsl r non p r o b l e m ~ of ~aofdifloaUon have been organized.

Special d d a s on the f o r d as t h e m o d Imporbad Mcepherlc strbsystarn and on t h e f o n a i ~ c b r as o m of the c o n p o n e n b d regional eoonomlc environrnenhl systems have bum &ad out within lhe tnvlronment Program a t I U S A . In the framework ofl h t m a a U 4 t i e s an I n L a r ~ U o n a l Workshop on 'Torest DacLine and RsproduoUon: R e g f o w l und G l o b d ~ e q m n o e s " *ss oonvmed wlth t h e oblec- Uve of seeking m co~lseluu shad. t h e 6latls and knwledge of forest decllne espe- c l d y in Europe. The Workshop. hald in Krakow.

Paknd

in Paroh of ID87 has b w n oonsidersrl an m m n t 6-d I n b n m U d meeting. In addition Lo presentations of 80 papara on for& d6olln0.2 a met of resdutlona was lReginrol &=#urer Ra-. Vol- 1 U. I, Wrlllhdl# (Ed.), Jnly l W 6 , GP4%-24, h t e r - rrLlowJ 1ratlt.tr for A m a d Sptam AwaL+e, A mL u . n k r & A M # .

2 ~ sk c l i n e t and Reproduetim. Rcg(onol and -1 C b r u q u m o . ~ . P r o e a d l n p of a Workmllop bold In -01. Poland, 2&Z? March 1961. L. W.ln.t.tl#. S. I I l n o n . and A. Strasnak m a . ) , S.pt.mb.r lm. TP-87-7% 1nL.rlatloR.l I n s t l t l t . for Appllad S y d e a u A n d y d s , A-2361 Lu.nburl. A u t r h .

cldopkd. Ih- oaU far redocti- d d r pdlohnt emlsslons. d e rraglonal

pallolsa, improved mod- d UH azbat md rda d farest deolina.

mom maanrob In sparlfio

-.

^{ad lnorjrwd} t m m m g i a m l and L a b r n r r t i o ~ l coopaaCkoa.

-at *gpmmohd'. Y.Lbodr d a b i b h i n g rodern r e g i d .nd tzyura$ioaal -md lmva b.U, d o v ~ l o p s d and call- b m k d Tb. -Uoa m o t h & p d h d a r l y far mu17 Lndl~Uars of f o r e s t

&CUM b a n d 0 & p d d ad abadcal &m@wrb abarrgm h a v e been Improved.

Actual -ar d pant ell*

m

rseiaml dnd bmrmroglanrl up b t h e

he^^

W he*. beon mrakd. Tklr y lmlp b iba evahmtion of f u t u r e ocologbd mdabmMlib d d r w @ o d

corpawntr

as forest. agriculture,

~quaslluw*Cnd-w-pbdo-.

Sau

8 b p m for eao#p@m

ara aL.o

-may In c u r r e n l a o t i v i l t i s d ooU&amtotl d W'. P-rm.

~~

^{b e idea of}

wonphem.

torardtbd 4

4 * A o r w h d o b r V. %nm&ky at lha h g l n a l u g ol t h l s cen- t u r y , a rodd d Yaplmm dewdqmmt ta xndu W a n In Ib Cornpuling Contar d Uw Amdm87 d Sokn#. d UH USSR (Academician N.N. Hoiseev) S s v e r r l f a .od r s g f m l r a p r c d W o n h a v e been c r s a L d &J M m m n b (USSR).

Ih. Wm,

Japan, PoLand. ale Also, a W o ~ k s h o p m Rmlsvo-t: Eoonaric Ecological and Soc~al Arpsds* rar h.M rlthin the d USA'. Biosphere P r o j e c t In Budapesl In

wrtag m.

-.

^{Lbr, praot(aal .L.a rMch}

^tm

^{Won i n the} f u t u r e l o meel t h e ob@oUva d hero&- - I d s&ahmMUtj d the bl-re must be met t h r o u g h regiuml andams.

Pb.

vknml8y&m1 b d i l l a r a m g o a b l e m ( n m . and If tsl, pro&awm d

YO

^Pd d e w l a p w n l r l t h f n t h e r e g i a n a l ~ ~ B & W E S acu dearly mdurtoDd and managed. a o d o g f c d sushi- m b i l t t y d r- kvahpma& a w a l l a uronoaie oampaUUwnss and sustain- able Eawiolll d the brnan

n o -

dll & a o h i e v d .

trLirg dt Lhb tnb

w.

a -W m '2oolaglcal S w b i n a b i l i t y d R e g i d -lopadm m beJd In Jmm Sm7, a p a n i t r d by t h e Lithuanian A o a d m d S a h i u a d Lh. Cord- l a Symtam Analpis. Academy of Sci- e n c e s d l b ~ USSR md c-qmmmd by IIASA. Ihe p a r U c l p a n b d t h e Workshop

held prod- m Uu bpi-:

1.

Arch #

rroloML .odoaorronic and m v i r o n r w r J d rystwms (dlmen- Idom,

- ^oowmenb,

^{rad -0mOnt orlkia).}

2. h~rrd.pmdmy

w

^{trpbno~, t -} ard g ~ o m ^~ wet- e l ~ b a l

a -

o -a. h r p m g i a m l W p b e r i o p d l u U m . and e c w l l m a t i c

-1.

3. Ibnagmnmd # -r -fa8 ( ~ m b l e / ~ u s h i ~ b l e Utlllzallon of m t d

-,

ourrent a d tdum drrtagla).

4 . E c o ~ n i c and S C O L O ~ U ~ ~ d . l i n q

c3

r e g l o n d syhf.ms ( a p p r ~ a c h e s . methods. models. software and dnta base c ~ m t r p a t l o n ) .

5 . C?ptinizatwn of r e g w n d d c w l o p m d / r e d r w l o p ~ t d r d @ e s (criteria

o f optimiked regional ecological management, multiple land use, and regional (national) physical planning and e n v l r a u n e n h l management).

The discussions a t the Workahop a c h i e w d the following:

Substantlation of wmmpttml a p p m a a h w tn eoologioally balanaed regional s a r i w c o n o m i c and envlronmenhl s p b n s .

Glimpse at t h e o m n l b v e l of k n o w w e on mutual idordependency of regional, transmglod, and global aoonomic and envltonmental -tams am evldent f n m :

-

anthropogenlc pollutant..

-

s o w U m t i c f l w t m t l o n s , and

-

global biwpheric ahange.

Contribution to develop an appraach to regional (mtianal) rasource management which is beat f o r long-term sociwconomio and envlronmen- h l regional development and for aushlmbilfty of t h e b i e p h e r a . Examination of passfbiUWes of generalizing exisl.Ing economic and environmental models and fadUtetion of t h d r adaptability f o r managerial use in East and W e a t d w c o n o m i c ~ y 6 l e m s .

Attempt to consolidab dive- approaches on s&inablr regional development.

Dotarmination of p r i o r l t i w In r e s e a r c h aimed a t improving regional s a i o a c o m d c and envlrarrwntal policies.

The Workshop adopted a final alahmenL.

Providing these Prateedings lo t h e broad oommuntty of regional environmentalists. economists. ecologists, agricultural f o r e s t and dendr- chronology specialists, as well as to i n i e r a t l o n a l organlzatlons and decision makers, I sincerely hope that consensus will be achieved on ecological sus- taimbiHty of regional development and ways will be found lo s w h l n a b l e sur- vlval of the htmran population within each geographical lagion.

1.2 ECOLOGICAL PUOBLEMS: TREIR STUDY

AND

SOLUllON M THE USSR

--

^{GLOBAL AND W C A L ASPECTS*}

A c a d e m i c i a n A . 1 Y a n s h i n Rm R s s i d a t ,

Academy ofScicnces of the Moscow. U.S.S.R.

The t e r m "ecology" was suggested o n e hundred y e a r s a g o by t h e German Darwinist E r n s t Haeckel Lo d e n o t e a s c i e n c e t h a t includes s t u d i e s of t h e r e l a t i o n - s h i p s of p l a n b and animals r l t h c e r t a i n physico-geographical conditions. Studies of t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s w e r e t h e n being c a r r i e d o u t but t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s them- s e l v e s w e r e assumed Lo be unchangeable. In t h e XlXth c e n t u r y t h e problem 01 t h e i r c h a n g e s . a n d of t h e evolution of ecological r e l a t i o n s h i p s , had not y e t been formulated; e v e n t h e problem of human ecology had not a r i s e n . This probably r e s u l t e d from old religious notions t h a t human beings a r e a b o v e n a l u r e and human s o c i e t y develops a c c o r d i n g t o i t s own laws independent of t h e laws of t h e develop- ment of n a t u r e . Only t h e most intelligent p e o p l e a t t h a t time r e f l e c t e d on whal we now c a l l 'human biosocial nature", belleving t h a t human society should develop a c c o r d i n g t o t h e laws of n a t u r e and n o t c o n t r a r y t o them. That idea was e x p r e s s e d mosl c l e a r l y by F r i e d r i c h Engels, who was o n e of t h e g r e a t e s t n a t u r a l s c i e n t i s t s .

The time f o r e s e e n by Engels h a s now come. The g e n e r a l laws of evolution t h a t a r e common t o both human s o c i e t y and living and non-living natur* which s u r r o u n d s us h a v e b e e n c o n s i d e r e d by o u r contemporaries-including t h e Soviet s c i e n t i s t s V.G. Afanasyev. N.N. Molseev. D.K. Belyaev. I.T. Prolov, S . P . Mikul~nsky and o t h e r s , b y t h e s c i e n t i s b from t h e Club of Rome. and in t h e r e c e n l l y published book by E r v i n Laszlo. Evolutiorc The Recent S y n t h e s i s . In t h e s e works a n a t t e m p t h a s b e e n made to c o n s i d e r t h e s o c i a l evolution of human sociely a s a his- t o r i c a l l y inevitable n a t u r a l p r o c e s s . Some p e r s o n a l i t i e s c a n slow down, o r h i n d e r t h a t p r o c e s s , b u t t h e y c a n n o t s t o p i t .

The f i r s t s c i e n t i s t who c o n s i d e r e d human s o c i e t y a s p a r t of t h e h i s l o r y 01 t h e b i o s p h e r e of t h e Earth rvas Vladimir Vernadsky. The 1 2 5 t h a n n i v e r s a r y of h i s b i r t h will b e c e l e b r a t e d in March 1988 in t h e S o v i e t Union and many o t h e r coun- t r i e s , e.g.. Czechoslovakia, F r a n c e , and t h e United Sbtes of America. although Vernadsky's work i s n o t sufficiently known in western c o u n t r i e s . In h i s e a r l y p a p e r s a t t h e - e n d of t h e XIXth o e n t u r y , V.I. Vernadsky pointed t o t h e huge a n d r a p l d l y growing s c a l e of human activity. q u i t e c o m p a r a b l e with t h e most powerful geological a n d geochemical p r o c e s s e s o c c u r r i n g in t h e u p p e r s h e l l of t h e E a r t h . In t h e s e p a p e r s Vernadsky warned Lhat a d r a m a t i c growth of human a c t i v i l y would inevitably p r o d u c e s i t u a t i o n s d a n g e r o u s f o r mankind i t s e l f , if t h a l activity did not p r o c e e d in a c c o r d a n c e WIUY n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s . b u t conflicted with them, d i s r u p t - ing t h e n a t u r a l c o u r s e of e v e n t s . He warned t h a t i g n o r a n c e of n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s a n d of t h e ways of t h e i r development and n e g l e c t f o r t h e s e p r o c e s s e s may r e s u l t -In: Ecologtcul Sustufnubfltty qffigtonal Drvelopmrnt. Proceedings of a Workshop held I n V l 1 -

dua. Uthuanla. USSR, 22-26 June 19117. L. Kalrlukstls, A. Burmcas, and A . Straszak (Eds ). 1988.

Systems Rarmrch Institute, Pollsh Academy of Sciences, Warsaw. Poland.

in c o n f l ~ c k between hmnan society and -Lure.

In his l a t e r works a t the t u r n of t h e century. Vernadsky focused on the prob- lem of a new s c ~ e n c e - g e o c h e m i s l r y . which was emerging a t t h a t time and of an old sclence-mineralogy, which he had considerably renewed by his genetlc approach. In these works Vernadsky carefully studied t h e behavior of each ele- ment in t h e biosphert-Lhe E a r t h ' s shell where living matter exists. h e discoversd the r o l e of aach chemical element in human acuvities. A t t h a t time some of t h e chemical elements of t h e Mendeleyev's periodic s p b m were not known l o be of practical value. Now. ail of them a r e not only used, but also chemi- cal compounds of these elements a r e c r e a t e d t h a t do not o c c u r in nature. For instance, such elements as gold and s i l v e r were never found in a natural s t a t e but only as compounds. Now, p u n aluminum, iron and titanium a r e produced in vast quantities. People have obtained t h e e absolutely new forms of chemical elements unknown in nature.

A t the General Assembly of t h e Academy of Sciences in 1811. Vernadsky presented a very i n t e n d i n g report. He pointed ollC t h a t in b l u r s , mankind will definitely l e a r n h w b use t h e energy of a b m i c fission and thus g e t a s o u r c e of energy of such a power t h a t was not known before. That is very significant since t h e r e p o d was made only about. 10 y e a r s sRa Baoquerel and P i m e and Mane Curle d ~ s c o v e r e d radioactivity. In lQll no scientist iook this prediction s e r i - ously. In 1922. Vernadsky mpaalsd t h a t prediction and said t h a t the t i m e of rnas- Lering nuclear energy was at hand. For the f i r s t time h e raised Iha question. will mankind u s e this tremendous source of energy f o r increasing i l s wealth or f o r self-destruction? A c l e a r warning was issued by Vernadsky back in 1922! A little l a t e r , in 1923. Vernadsky l e f t Russia f o r Prapua and P a r i s where f o r two y e a r s h e lectured in geochemistry. In his l e c t u r e s he revealed t h e rob of each chemi- cal element in t h e processes in t h e b i ~ s p h e r e including human activity, t h a t activity was considered by Vemaadsky Lo be a bioapheric process.

As a result of his investigation. a new science appeared-bio-geochemistry.

i.e.. geochemlslsy associated with life, with t h e acLivity of living organisms and llving maLter of t h e biosphere.

During t h e following y e a r s Vernadsky paid a I d of a t t a r t i a n t o t h e investiga- L~ons of all t h e -tan of t h e w h e r e and not only to the chemical processes In it. The questions he & d i e d included: how much solar energy i s con- sumed by g r e e n plank; what is t h e mechanism af thQ f a m a t i o n of elementary organic substancas by plants powered by solar energy: and. what is t h e m a s s o f living matter in t h e p r s p a t biasphers. At t h e soma time t h e f i r s t s t e p had been taken in investigations of t h e evolution of t h e bicrsph41-e as part of the history of t h e Earth.

In 1926. Vernadsky's fundamenW ralc Y h BLoaphra pablished. 1 r e g r e t very much Chat this work has not yet bean published in English. We will d o i t in t h e m a r e s t future. The leetures Vetnadsky held at t h e Sorbonne were pub- lished in Rmsian and French in hta bods Em-ys on Omchmuutty. Having gen- eralized in t h e m works his e a r l y studies of tbe biosphere. Yemadsky continued lo d u d y these p r o b l e m until h b death In lB45.

In 1940. a n d h e r l a r p e and v e n l m p o r b n t p a p e r a m published in Russia entitled On t h Autotrophy qfMunt(nd (this ras published in R e n c h in 1925).

The term "aubCrophicw was i n t r o d w a d by t h e German physiologist W. P f e f f e r to denole g r e e n piants. b e c a m e only theso plants consume w l a r energy by chloro- phyll grains. Then these plants produce elemenhr). organic substances. mostly carbohydrates. and in minor quanfftias. praLsirn and various f a t s wing carbon dioxide, water and mineral substances t h a t a r e e x t r a c t e d -ether with water by t h e mots of t h e plants. A l l animals am hebro(saphic; they cannot produce

o r g a n i c s u b s t a n c e s o u t of inorganic ones. they e i t h e r f e e d on plants o r p r e y on e a c h other. Hrrman beings are also h e t e r o t r o p h i c , a s were t h e primitive people of t h e Stone b e , They w e r e e n t i r e l y d e p e n d e n t on t h e n a t u r a l environment.

d r e s s e d in animal s k i n s , Uvjng in h u t s of s t a k e s c o v e r e d by animal skins. and fed am planLs and animal meat. Vernadsky pointed o u t t h a t in t h e p r o c e s s of t h e dsvclopment of civillzhtjon p-le gradually ariquired some a u t d r o p h i c f e a t u r e s . They l e a r n e d Lo build Cheir how- d b r i c l u and c o n c r e t e . Modern people a r e l n c r a a s i n g l j using synLhUc f a b r i o s f o r t h e i r c l o t h e s and e v e n produce s y n t h e t i c f u r s o u t of n a t u r a l g a s grid other. inorganic s u b s t a n c s s e c a l l meeting with o u r late P r e s i d e n t . Alexander Nssmeyanov. Lo disouss t h e organization of new r e s e r v e s f o r p a s e r v i n g fur-bearing animals. He a s k e d us. w h y do we need f i r - bearing a n i m a l s when c h m i s t r y i s now abk to p r o d u c e f i r ?

V.I. V e r n a d s k j followed v e r y closely t h e e a r l y a t t e m p t s Lo c r e a t e s y n t h e t i c food. Ye now know Chat rnicrobidogioal p r o c e s s e s pekmit production of p r o t e i n s out of gas. and leaven o u t d timber w e t a s . Vernadsky believed t h a t t h e c r e a t i o n of s y n t h e t i c food will be a big s l s p Loward t h e a u t o t r o p h y of mankind and i t s independence f r o m t h e environment. Following h i s idea we c a n formulate a p r o b - lem of synthesizing g r e e n chlorophyll plastids by which g r e e n p l a n k consume solar e n e r g y . When people l e a r n how Lo make s y n t h e t i c chlorophyll, t h e y will b e a b l e to p r o d u c e unlimited amounts of food and fodder. This problem h a s not ye:

b e e n p r o p e r l y formulated by s c i e n t i s t s ; however, i t will undoubtedly h a p p e n in t h e n e x t 100 y e a r s .

In t h e middle of t h e 1930s. during t h e Lsst d e c a d e of h i s life. Vernadsky paid s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n to problems of t h e evolution of t h e b i o s p h e r e , i t s qualiLaLive c h a n g e s beginning from t h e E a r t h ' s e a r l y d a y s when only microbes inhabited Lhe s e a s a n d o c e a n s and t h e land was devoid of life and until t h e l a l e s t s t a g e in Lhe development of t h e b i o s p h e r e when human beings a p p e a r e d t o c h a n g e t h e bio- s p h e r e . R e t u r n i n g Lo h i s e a r l i e r works Vernadsky studied t h e s c a l e s of human a c t i v i t y in more d e t a i l t h a n b e f o r e . He believed t h a t collective human inteliecl will t r a w f o r m t h e spontaneously organized b i o s p h e r e i n t o a rationally controlled noosphere (noos i s "intellect" in Greek). The n o o s p h e r e i s t h a t s t a g e of bio' s p h e r e development w h e r e a collective human intellect h a s transformed i t Lo meel t h e m a l e r i a l , s p i r i t u a l and e s t h e t i c demands of mankind.

In 1977. long a f t e r t h e d s a t h of V.I.

erna ad sky.'

h i s p a p e r S c i r n t f i c thought a s a planetary phenomenon was published. T h e r e h e formulated 12 conditions e s s e n t i a l Lo t h e transformation of t h e b i o s p h e r e i n t o t h e n a o s p h e r e . I will not d i s c u s s a l l 12 conditions, a n d merely s a y t h a t a c c o r d i n g Lo Vernadsky t h e main condition f o r t h e formation of t h e ntxlsphere i s removal of t h e t h r e a t of wars. As long as t h e possibility of wars exists. t h e b i o s p h e r e c a n n o t b e transformed into t h e asph here. O n l j t h e aboliLion of w a r s , only a friendly and peaceful life of all t h e people of o u r p l a n e t c a n e n s u r e t h e r i g h t conditions f o r a noasphere.

V e m a d s k y d l 4 on J a n u a r y 5 . 1945. A few months l a t e r n u c l e a r bombs exploded wer Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Vernadsky's prediction had come t r u e : t h e e n e r g y of n u c l e a r fission had been n a s t s r e d . Unfortunately up t o now a con- s i d e r a b l e part of t h e e f f o r t s of mankind h a s been s p e n t on stockpiling nucle;:- weapons. Yet we trrrst t h a t a n a g r e e m e n t will b e r e a c h e d on uses of n u c l e a r e n e r g y f o r p e a c e f u l p u r p o s e s . At t h e same time, during t h e 42 postwar y e a r s . p e a c e f u l uses of n u c l a a r e n e r g y have been increasing. In aarLier times f e a r l e s z e x p l o r e r s r e a c h e d t h e Nwth Pole. Nowadays i c e - b r e a k e r s h i p s with powerful n u c l e a r e n g i n e s easily pass t h r o u g h i c e hummocks and p o l a r i c e on Lheir way Lo t h e North Pole. By means of t h e s e i c e - b r e a k e r s a f r e e p a s s a g e i s opened t h r o u g h t h e i c e of t h e A r c t i c Oceans-fmm E u r o p e to t h e s h o r e s of t h e F a r F a s t . Nuclear w a t e r d i s t i l l e r s are working in d e s e r t s . on t h e c o a s t of s e a s and s a l t l a k e s . They

provide water f o r drinking and f o r technical p u r p o s e s and g e n e n l e considerable amounts of watur f o r i r r i g a t i o n and planting of g a r d e n s a n d v i n e y a r d s in d e s e r t s . A considerable amount of e l e c t r i c e n e r g y i s now produced by n u c l e a r power plants (502 in P r a n c e and 172 in t h e Soviet Union). The Chernobyl t r a g e d y warns all people of t h e E a r t h m a t they should deal with n u d e a r e n e r g y ' e r t r e m e l y c a r e - fully. We cannot, however. s t o p developing new s o u r c e s d e n e r g y . S c i e n t i s t s in many c o u n t r i e s a r e working h a r d on controlled n u c l e a r fusion. We will p r o b a b l y b e a b l e Lo use t h e e n e r g y of n u c l e a r fusion In t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . The power of mankind will i n c r e a s e tremendously if we a g r e e to u s e t h i s e n e r g y only f o r peaceful purposes.

The p a s t 30 y e a r s can 'be rightfully called '%he Age of t h e Scientific and Technological Ravolution". This i s d u e n o t only to t h e tapping of n u c l e a r e n e r g y . People have gone Into o u b r s p a c e and hundreds of sablliles a r e now orbiting t h e E a r t h , studying both s p a c e and t h e E a r t h ' s s u r f a c e . An e n t i r e l y new s c i e n c e h a s appeared--studies of t h e E a r t h by s p a c e methods to m d t o r t h e condition of f o r e s t s , c o r r e c t t o p o g r a p h i c ~ ~ p s , f o r e c a s t snow melt and r i v e r floods, and a s s e s s c r o p s . E a r t h s t u d i e s by s p a c e methods a r e useful i n many ways.

The dream of Jules Verne h a s cqme t r u e : people have walked on t h e Moon.

S p a c e instruments a c q u i r e data a b o u t all planets of t h e s o l a r system and c o m e k t h a t s t r a y inLo it. We now have a n i d e a a b o u t t h e physical conditions and t h e s u r - f a c e relief of Venus. Mars, J u p i t e r ' s s a t a l l i t e s and t h e s t r u c t u r e of S a t u r n ' s r i n g s . At t h e same time, during t h e s e 3 0 y e a r s , detailed s t u d i e s of t h e m i c r w o s m . of t h e elementary p a r t i c l e s have been conducted. New b r a n c h e s of i n d u s t r y have a p p e a r e d as e l e c t r o n i c s and microbiology have continued to advance. The molec- u l a r mechanism of t h e t r a n s f e r of h e r e d i t a r y f e a t u r e s h a s been d i s c o v e r e d . On t h a t basis a completely new s c i e n c e has emerged, i.e., 6eneLic engineering, t h a t h a s a l r e a d y b r o u g h t important p r a c t i c a l r e s u l t s . During t h i s 30-year period powerful computers h a v e b e e n built; n o r e s e a r c h c e n t e r c a n ncw work without them

The changes t h a t have o c c u r r e d during t h e p a s t 3 d e c a d e s a r e tremendous They b e n e f i t mankind. G r e a t advances have been made combating infectious diseases. In t h e XIXth c e n t u r y . smallpox wiped o u t t h e whole population of many islands in t h e P a c i f i c . Twelve y e a r s ago, t h e World Health Organization in Geneva announced a reward of $6.000 f o r t h e d o c t o r who would r e p o r t one c a s e of smallpox. The r e w a r d h a s n o t been claimed. Smallpox h a s been eliminated from o u r p l a n e t . S t r i d e s h a v e been made in combating o t h e r infectious diseases.

Mankind's impact on n a t u r e h a s a t t h e same time resultud in t h o s e conflict situations t h a t V.I. Vernadsky warned against at t h e end of t h e l a s t c e n t u r y . The s h e e r s c a l e of c u l t u r a l activity r e s u l t e d in t h e pollution of t h e a t m o s p h e r e , t h e h y d r o s p h e r e (including t h e o c e a n ) and t h e u p p e r c r u s t .

At t h e same time a r a p i d growth d t h e population began, leading to s e r i o u s ecological problems. In my youth nobody thought or wrote a b o u t t h e s e problems.

e x c e p t V.I. Vernadsky. a s c i e n t i s t d true distinction.

A number of new global ecological problems h a v e a p p e a r e d . I will only men- tion some of them. I t h a s now b e e n a c c e p b d by all t h e climaLologisLs of t h e world t h a t t h e i n c r e a s e of c a r b o n dioxide c o n c e n t r a t i o n s in t h e a t m o s p h e r e i s due t o t h e burning of v a s t q u a n t i t i e s of fuel In i n b r n a l combustion engines of vehicles.

coal-fired power s h t i o m , etc. W e know t h a t t h e c a r b o n dioxide c o n c e n t r a t i o n s h a v e not b e e n c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e h i s t o r y of t h e Earth. I r e c e n t l y had g r e a t p l e a s u r e in p r e s e n t i n g to the IlASA l i b r a r y t h e book Thc H i s i o r y of t h e Atmo- a p h r r c t h a t I w r d s in collaboration with Corresponding Members of t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR. M.1. Budyko and A.B. Ronov. W e followed c h a n g e s in t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of v a r i o u s g a s e s In t h e a m p h e r e during t h e p a s t 500 million

y e a r s s i n c e s k e l e t a l life forms a p p e a r e d on E a r t h . But. l e t us n o t g o s o f a r back.

Let us dwell mn what h a s happened during t h e p a s t 50 millim y e a r s . From t h e geological point of view t h a t i s a ver)' s h o r t p e r i o d . Recent c a r b o n dioxide con- c e n t r a t i o n s a r e within 0.032; 50 million y e a r s a g o i t was 0.42, i.e.. g r e a t e r by one o r d e r of magnitude. W e know definitely t h a t a t t h a t time even t h e Antarctic had no i c e c o v e r and t h a t i t was inhabited by animals whose s k e l e t o n s h a v e been found. T h e r e w e r e n o drifting ice-floes in t h e Arctic Ocean. High f o r e s t s were growing on S p i k b e r g e n ; t h i s i s b o r n e o u t by c o a l deposits in B a r e n t s b u r g . At Chat time, a t 0.42 of c a r b o n dioxide, t h e g r e e n h o u s e e f f e c t w a s s o intense t h a t t h e climate of t h e E a r t h was e v e r y w h e r e warm, mild and t h e r e w e r e n o i c e c a p s n e a r t h e poles. W e are of c o u r s e v e r y f a r from t h e s e conditions now. The c o n c e n t r a - tion of c a r b o n dloxide Is increasing, however. And i t i s i n c r e a s i n g not only in t h e urban areas b u t n e a r t h e South Pole (according lo t h e measurements of t h e Amundsen-Scott s t a t i o n ) and on small c o r a l islands in +he Pacific. as well. These measurements show t h a t in some c a s e s Che c o n c e n t r a t i o n of c a r b o n dioxide is 0.045, i.e.. i t h a s i n o r e a s e d by 502 in comparison with what i t was in t h e f i r s t half of t h e c e n t u r y . Climatologists h a v e r e v e a l e d a n i n c r e a s e in t h e a v e r a g e t e m p e r a - t u r e of t h e lower atmosphere. I t i s still not l a r g e , only one or two t e n t h s of a d e g r e e . b u t t h e t e m p e r a t u r e is increasing. Nobody doubts i t and climatologists a r e now studying how t h i s warming will influence t h e distribution of precipitation Cerlain t h e o r i e s seem t o b e developing in t h i s connection. They need of c o u r s e checking.

In t h e S o v i e t Union t h r e e I n s t i t u t e s work in t h i s field: t h e Central Hydro- g r a p h i c Institute of t h e S t a t e Committee f o r Hydrometeorology in Leningrad. t h e Institute of Geography, and t h e Institute of Physics of t h e Atmosphere of t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR in Moscow. The l a t t e r h a s a big l a b o r a t o r y on t h e t h e o r y of t h e climate. The t h r e e Institutes h a v e r e p o r t e d i n t e r e s t i n g d a t a . t h e s i g n s are t h a t by t h e y e a r 2000 a s t r i p of climate more a r i d t h a n a t p r e s e n t will form in t h e s o u t h of E u r o p e , t o c o v e r Spain. Italy, t h e n o r t h e r n Balkans, and t h e U k r a i n e in t h e S o v i e t Union. I t will n o t s t r e t c h f u r t h e r t o t h e e a s t , however.

North of t h i s a r e a and, what i s v e r y important to us, s o u t h of i t , i . e . . in Central Asia t h e amount of p r e c i p i t a t i o n should c o n s i d e m ~ l y i n c r e a s e . We now o b s e r v e t h a t t h e snow c w e r n e a r Moscow r e a c h e s 00-90 cm. The run-off of t h e Volga h a s considerably increased: i t was especially l a r g e in t h e f i r s t half of 1986, when t h e level of t h e Caspian S e a rose b y 0 cm. That amounL of w a t e r was provided mostly by t h e Volga and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t by t h e U r a l River. Not e v e r y t h i n g i s c l e a r , however; a b s o r p t i o n of c a r b o n dioxide by t h e World Ocean h a s not been d e t e r - mined a c c u r a t e l y enough, various s c e n a r i o s a r e still being developed, b u t t h e g e n e r a l t r e n d of t h e climatic p r o c e s s e s h a s a l r e a d y been r e v e a l e d . One of t h e most i m p o r t a n t problems of our times t h e r e f o r e i s t o w o r k , o u t a s c e n a r i o of f u t u r e climatic c h a n g e s not only f o r one c o u n t r y o r a comparatively small con- t i n e n t s u c h as E u r o p e . b u t f o r t h e whole world.

L e t m c o n s i d e r some d h e r global problems t h a t h a v e a p p e a r e d r e c e n t l y . I h a v e a l r e a d y s a i d t h a t large-scale a i r pollution i s o n e of t h e main negative fac- tors t h a t h a v e emerged during t h e past 30 y e a r s . The International l n s t i t u t e f o r Applied Systerns Analysis i s studying t h e important problem of acid r a i n . Smoke laden with s u l p h u r i c , n i t r i c , and sometimes, hydrofluoric a c i d s i s c a r r i e d by t h e wind. o v e r g r e a t d i s t a n c e s . As a r e s u l t , a c i d r a i n o c c u r s in a l l t h e industrialized c o u n t r i e s . When studying t h i s problem, i t is v e r y important n o t only Lo determine the h a r m f u l e f f e c t of a i r pollution on t h e s u r r o u n d i n g l a n d s c a p e but Lo involve economisls in t h i s work to show t h a t c o n t r o l technologies c a n bring p r o f i t This c a n b e t h e case when t h e c o n c e n k a t i o n of t h e v a p o r of s u l p h u r i c o r hydrofluoric a c i d s is sufficiently high. At low concenLrations i t will be unprofitable. 1 would l i k e lo give you the following example: in t h e O m n b u r g r e g i o n in t h e S o u t h e r n

Urals l a r g e c o p p e r deposits were discovered in t h e 1930s. In t h e s e d e p o s i t s c o p p e r i s combined with s u l p h u r in t h e form of c h a l c w i n e , c h a l c o p y r i t e and bor- nite. A plant and t h e city of Mednogorsk were built in t h e Urals. 1 2 0 km e a s t of Orenburg. The plant produced high-quality c o p p e r ; s u I p h u r g a s e s of high con- c e n t r a t i o n were discharged i n t o t h e a i r , whlch r e s u l t e d in t h e following conse- quences: a t f i r s t , t r e e t o p s withered and t h e n f o r e s t s underwent a complete degradation o v e r a considerable t e r r i t o r y . Our technologisls and economisls cal- culated, however. t h a t i t would b e v e r y p r o f i t a b l e f o r t h e plant b r e t a i n t h i s sul- phurous g a s and p r o d u c e p u r e s u l p h u r r a t h e r t h a n s u l p h u r i c acid. The p l a n t now p r o d u c e s c o p p e r and about 7.000 lars of p u r e s u l p h u r p e r ye,ar. As a r e s u l t t h e plant is m o r e p r o f i h b l e . The Ministry of Nan-Far- Metallurgy did not a c c e p t t h e p r o j e c t f o r a long time because s u l p h u r i s produced in t h e USSR by a n o t h e r ministry, t h e Ministry of Chemical Industry. S u l p h u r emissions c a n n o doubt b e reduced a t a p r o f i t f o r t h a s e f a c t o r i e s and companies l h a t are melting sulphide o r e s .

R i v e r s and l a k e s have been polluted d u r i n g the r e c e n t decades. I will l a t e r s p e a k a b o u t what h a s been done to d e a l with t h i s problem in t h e USSR. i t i s a p e - c ~ a l l y disturbing t h a t t h e World Ocean h a s a l s o b e e n polluted.. This i s to a g r e a t e x t e n t d u e to t h e increasing o f f s h o r e e x l r a c t i o n of oil a n d g a s from t h e shelf.

The e n t i r e North S e a in Europe, t h e P e r s i a n Gulf. t h e Gulf of Mexico. t h e South China Sea--ail t h e s e shallow-water sem a r e c o v e r e d by a thick n e t of oil- and gas-extracting platforms. S u c h platforms a r e hugging t h e n o r t h e r n and southerm s h o r e s of Alaska, t h e s h o r e s of California. E c u a d o r , P e r u , and N o r t h e r n Chile, t h e western s h o r e s of Australia, and t h e s h o r e s of India n e a r Bombay. They a r e located in t h e Bass S t r a i t between Australia and Tasmania, in t h e Bay of Siam and i n t h e Gulf of Guinea in Africa.

In 1985, 680 million tons of oil were e x t r a c t e d off s h o r e . More was e x t r a c t e d in 1986. 1 d o not know t h e e x a c t f i g u r e but i t should b e o v e r 7 0 0 million tons.

Moreover, many c o u n t r i e s t h a t h a v e no d e p o s i t s on land e x t r a c t hundreds of thousand tons from h y d r o c a r b o n a e p a s i t s u n d e r t h e sea floor. These a r e , e . g . , Nigeria. Norway. Denmark, and t h e Netherlands. These oil fields a r e in f a c t t h e main p o l l u t e r s of t h e World Ocean, s i n c e a c e r t a i n amount of oil is lost d u e to drill f a i l u r e s , and in t h e p r o c e s s of pumping oil i n t o t a n k e r s . Of c o u r s e shipping h a s i n c r e a s e d and t h i s a l s o pollutes t h e ocean. H e r e i s a n example. In 1947. Thor Heyerthal sailed on t h e 'Xon-Tiki" from P e r u ' s s h o r e s to a small island in t h e Paumotu Archipelago. On h i s a a y h e s a w c l e a n w a t e r , plenty of fish and o t h e r animals. Twenty-three y e a r s l a t e r in 1970, h e made a t r i p on t h e sailing boat

"Rha" from Morocco to t h e s h o r e s of Venezuela. All t h e way a c r o s s t h e Atlantic Ocean h e saw no flying fish, b u t obserwed oil s l i c k s and encounLered drifting plas- t i c b o t t l e s and wastes.

The u p p e r c ~of t h e E a r t h t and underground w a t e r are a l s o being polluted.

In many cases, u n d e r t h e influence of hwnan aclivtty, k a r s t p r o c e s s e s develop.

This h a s o c c u r r e d even in Madcow as a r e s u l t of w a t e r leakage o u t of sewage and w a t e r s u p p l y systems.

A m a s s movement f o r environmental p r o t e e l i o n b e g a n in t h e 1960s, a b o u t 25 y e a r s ago. In l g n , a s p e c i a l session of t h e U n i b d Nalions focused on t h i s p r o b - lem. I t was decided to form an i n t e r n a t i o n a l body o n environmental programs- UNEP-that n o w h a s i l s h e a d q u a r l e r s In Nalrobi. UNESCO also adopted a number of international e n v i r o n m e n h l p r o j e c t s while t h e Soviet Union began to introduce environmental p r o t e c t i o n m e a s u r e s a t a b o u t t h e same time. A s o c i e t y f o r n a t u r e conservation w a s organized in t h e Soviet Union b a c k in 1923, b u t i t was a n o n g e v e r ~ n s n h l organization. i n Lhe 1860s and 1970s the USSR Supreme Soviet adopted a number of laws on m i l p r o t e c l i o n , w a t e r p r o t e c t i o n , air-space

p r o t e c t i o n and a l s o resolutions on t h e protection of t h e Black and Baltic S e a s The Council of M i n ~ s t e r s established a commission on e n v i r o n m e n h l p r o t e c t i o n t o enforce t h e laws. This commission does no r e s e a r c h but i t e n s u r e s t h a t ministries a n d facti-xy managers abide b y t h e adopted l a w s . Moreover. t h e commission can impose l a r g e f i n e s and dismiss o f f e n d e r s from t h e i r posts. The head of t h e com- mlssion i s o n e of t h e f l r s t Deputy Chairmen of t h e Council of Ministers of t h e USSR, p r e s a n t l y V.S. Murakhovsky.

An i n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l committee f o r environmental p r o t e c t i o n w a s e s t a l b u s h e d at t h e Stab Cammitlae f o r Science and Technology at t h e same time. In 1972. t h e S c i e n W i c Comtcll

on

t h e problems of b i o s p h e r e was organized a t t h e Acadbmy of S c i e n o a of t h e USSR. Academician A.P. Vinogradov. iLs f i r s t c h a i r - man, was a well-known geochemLbt. N k r Academician Vinogradov's d e a t h in 1976.

Academician A.V. S l d o r e n k o was appointed to t h e past: a n d now I am in c h a r g e o r t h e Council. 1 shaU d e s c r i b e some aspeck of i t s work.

W e e g a n i z e fact-finding o o n f e r e n c e s in various regions of t h e Soviet Union where abnormal ecological eftuations arise. I have p a r t i c i p a t e d in a number of s u c h g o n f e r e n c m : in Yakutsk on p r o b c t f n g t h e t u n d r a and defining conditions f o r mining minerals in the t u n d r a ; in Kishinev. Moldavia. and in Y a l b on improv- ing t h e h e a l t h resod t o n e in Kialovcdsk and an t h e n o r t h e r n coast of t h e Black Sea. In 1- 1 organized a vlsiting session i n Yerevan. As a r e s u l t , a governmen- hl ~ a a s p h e r e s t u d i e s c e n t e r was organized in Armenia. During t h e l a s t two and a balf y e a r s , t h i s c e n b r h a s accomplished much: t h e proposed s i t e f o r construction of a n u c l e a r power p l a n t h a s been changed, and i t will b e built in a remote and uninhabited valley in t h e mountains; t h e amount of S e w n water used by a chain o i small hydro-power s t a t i o n s h a s b e e n reduced; f a c t o r i e s t h a t polluted t h e a l r in t h e A r a r a t valley have b e e n c l a r e d down. The las,t meeting of t h a t kind Wac organized in 1986 in Ashkhabad, c a p i t a l of Turkmenia. I t was devoted t o human bcology and n a t u r a l c o n d l t i m s in t h e a r i d zone of Central Asia and Azerbaijan The meetiw conaidered what should ba done to improve t h e environment in t h i s a r i d region. w h e r e many oil and g a s fields h a v e b e e n discovered. The meeting a l s o examined health rsswb i n piedmontane and mountain r e g i o n s of Central Asia, t h e stabilization of moving sands. c o n t r o l of desertificatlon, and t h e rational use of t h e limited w a t e r in thte d e s e r t .

In addltfon to t h e s e visiting sessions during t h e p a s t t h o y e a r s . o u r Sclen- Ufic Council on problems o! t h e b i o s p h e r e p r e p a r e d t h e scientific basis f o r a number of governmental r a s d o t l o n s . W e began with a r s f u d y of a p r o j e c t t o t r a n s f e r a a b m of Lhe r i v e r s of N o r t h e r n E u r o p e and S i b e r i a to t h e South of t h e corn-. W e h a v e comprehensively studied t h i s question from t h e ecological and economic points

ef

view. and h a v e managed to p r o v e t h a t t h e t r a n s f e r of t h e w a t e r s of t h e norlhern r i v e r s (the N o r t h e r n Dvina and Onega) i n t o t h e Volga basin is afp r a c U c a l l y n o tue d w to climatic c h a n g e s t h a t h a v e begun. Over t h e past e i g h t pan t h e a v e r a g e Volga r m n , f f h a s b e e n 26 km3 larger t h a n t h a t o v e r t h e preceding o n e hundred years and i s increasing Building new r e s e r v o i n o n t h e U p p e r Snkhona and Onaga on f e r t i l e s o i l s wastes money f o r only 6 km3 of addi- Uonal w a k r is t r a n s f e r r e d i n t o t h e Caspian Sea. But t h e Caspian S e a does not n e e d -tar. I t s level ham begun to increase.. O m should s M thinking of how t o d e c r e a s e t h i s level. e.g.. by t r a n s f e r r i n g Large amorrnb of w a t e r to t h e Carabo- g a z Bay t h a t e a r l l e r e v a p o r a t e d abwt 6 km3 of w a b r .

As f o r t h e S i b e r i a n r i v e r s , t h e problem h a s not been removed from t h e agenda. The population of C e n t r a l Asia i s r a p i d l y growing d u e to a high b i r t h - rate and t h e migration of Soviets from S i b e r i a a n d t h e F a r East to a region with b e t t e r cLimatic conditions. C e n M Asia r(ll need water. The r e s o u r c e s of t h e Amu-Darya a r e p r a c t i c a l l y exhausted. The completely exhausted Syr-Darya does

noL r e a c h t h e Aral S e a . But t h e p r o j e c t on which work began i s not s a t i s f a c t o r y IL would give Central Asia only 8 or 1D km3 of w a t e r . This i s t o o l i t t l e b e c a u s e due Lo faulty i r r i p a t i o n , Central Asia now loses a b o u t 26 km3 of water. Measures on waLer economy should be t a k e n t h e r e b e f o r e w a t e r t r a n s f e r from S i b e r i a begins.

IL is p r o b a b l e t h a t in t h e XXlst c e n t u r y w e s h a l l r e c o n s i d e r t h i s p r o j e c t . In a n y c a s e , we r e p o r t e d o u r calculations and p r e s e n t e d them lo t h e government and on Augrst 1 4 . 1986 i t was announced t h a t t h e Lransfer lo t h e S o u t h of p a r t of t h e run-off of t h e n o r t h e r n and S i b e r i a n r i v e n had b e e n cancelled.

The second problem being studied u n d e r t h e s u p e r v i s i o h of o u r S c i e n t i f i c Council i s t h a t of Baikal. t h e wonderful lake. a b o u t 2 km (1741 m) deep. in e a s t e r n S i b e r i a with amazingly c l e a r water. Baikal w a t e n a r e c l e a n d u e to t h e r e s i d e n t fauna: a tiny swimming c r a y f i s h " e p i s c h u r a baikaleruis" i n h a b i t s t h e u p p e r Layer of t h e water. I t f i l t e r s w a t e r t h r o u g h ita body leaving t h e suspended p a r t i c l e s in i t s tiny shell. Six g e n e r a t i o n s of c r a y f i s h live a n d d i e during t h e summer p e r i o d . and six times t h e s e e p i s c h u r a s h e l l s with t h e i r loads of srnrpended p a r t i c l e s d r o p t o t h e bottom. This explains t h e amazing p u r i t y of t h e Baikal waters. In 1955 i t was decided to build a pulp-and-paper mill o n Baikal. I t was s u p p a s e d to p r o d u c e cellulose c o r d f o r t h e aviation i n d u s t r y . However, t h e i n d u s t r y s t o p p e d using cellulose c o r d and began lo r s e a metallic o n e . T h e f a c t o r y began lo p r o d u c e o r d i n a r y p a p e r . And though t h e r e w e r e water-treatment facilities, t h e f a c t o r y pollutad Baikal. We suggested moving t h e production of cellulose down t h e Angara r i v e r to t h e North where conditions a r e r i g h t f o r t h e production of cellulose. In April-May. 1987. o u r governmental bodies announced t h e i r decision t o p u r i f y not only Baikal itself b u t all t h e r i v e r s flowing i n t o it. t o e n h a n c e t h e sewage systems of t h e c i t i e s o n t h e s e r i v e r s , t o s t o p t h e production of cellulose on Baikal and t o move t h e f a c t o r y lo t h e new c i t y of Ust-Ilim. being built on t h e Angara.

A t h i r d problem t h a t o u r Scientific Council h a s c o n s i d e r e d i s how t o k e e p Lake Ladoga c l e a n . This i s t h e s o u r c e of t h e Neva R i v e r , which p r o v i d e s Len- ingrad with w a t e r . This problem was mostly c o n s i d e r e d by o u r colleagues from Leningrad, b u t we discussed t h e i r p r o p o s a l s a t meetings of o u r Council and t h e n p r e s e n t e d them to t h e government. A governmental resolution o n t h e p r o t e c t i o n of Lake Ladoga h a s r e c e n t l y been published. This means t h a t a n o t h e r of o u r r e g i o n a l ecological p r o j e c t s h a s been successful.

We a r e now examining t h e p r o j e c t t o build a n o t h e r water r e s e r v o i r on t h e t i p p e r Volga n e a r Rzhev t o p r o v i d e Moscow with w a t e r . According lo t h i s pro- j e c t , 60 k m 2 a r e lo b e f l w d e d b u t w? are a g a i n s t building r e s e r v o i r s in plains (they c a n b e built in montain clefts). FerLile lands are loo valuable t o b e l o s t lo waLer r e s e r v o i r s . We h a v e s u c c e e d e d in demonstrating t h a t underground s o u r c e s a r o u n d Moscow c a n p r o v i d e more w a t e r t h a n could b e obtained from t h i s new r e s e r v o i r . The l a t t a r was supposed to give 23 m3 p e r s e c o n d . We h a v e shown t h a t t h e u n d e r g r o u n d s o u r c e s a r o u n d Moscow c a n give 35 m3/sec. That was t h e main argument a g a i n s t building a new w a t e r r e s e r v o i r . The Council of Ministers of t h e Russian F e d e r a t i o n h a s a l r e a d y c o n s i d e r e d o u r p r o p o s a l s and a g r e e d with them.

The resolution is u n d e r consideration b y t h e Council of Ministers of t h e USSR and will p r o b a b l y be adopted.

1 h a v e used t h e s e examples to show how e n v i r o n m e n h l p r o t e c t i o n i s develop- in t h e USSR. Of c o u r s e , our S c i e n t i f i c Council i s n o t t h e only body working in t h i s field. W e h a v e a powerful S o v i e t Committee f o r t h e lnbzrnational P r o g r a m 'Wan and t h e Biosphere", headed by Academician V.E. Sokolov. This committee h a s b e e n v e r y successful in establishing n a t u r e r e s e r v e s and saving many e n d a n g e r e d animals. During t h e war. t h e E u r o p e a n buffalo was p r a c t i c a l l y e x t e r - l ~ i n a t o d in t h e Soviet Union; Now buffalo live in Belovezhskaya P u s h c h a on t h e b o r d e r with Poland, a r e s e r v e on t h e l e f t bank of t h e Oka R i v e r n e a r M a s c o w , and