In view of t h e importance of Lhis reglon, both d i r e c t l y and as a n example, a l a r g e number of sLudies w e r e undertaken r e f e r r i n g to a variety of n a t u r a l . economic and social questions. In p a r t i c u l a r , special attention was devoted t o studying Vle poteniial and a c t u a l crop yield d e c r e a s e s due to a d r o p in groundwa- Ler level and o t h e r influences. While opinlons d i f f e r e d concerning potential c r o p changes, s t u d i e s of a c t u a l c r o p yields showed no significant d e c r e a s e s in field c r o p yields and only v e r y limfted d e c r e a s e s in p a s t u r e and meadow productivity
This, in t h e e y e s of many specialists, w a s a sufficient basis f o r stating t h a t agriculLure would ulLimaLely noL b e a f f e c i e d negatively by t h e developmen1 a1 hand. Lhereby corroboraLing Hypothesis 1.
Still. Table 2 In Lhis p a p e r Indicates Vlat even under condilions of no change.
especially n o p m d u c t l v l t y d r o p ("None") and only a water c u r t i n c r e a s e ("A").
only a minority or e v e n a small minority of f a r m s c a n s e c u r e incomes comparable to t h o s e in IndusLry. Since, however, h i s Table was a r e s u l t of a n h priori study and i t was meant to indicate t h e policy p a t h , an e f f o r t was undertaken to analyze Lhe positlon of regional a g r i c u l t u r e on Vle basis of a c t u a l data.
Data m a s eolLcLed describing in a n a g g r e g a l e way Lhe agriculture of 30 b a s i c adrninisLraLive units ("gmina." equivaleni roughly to county) of t h e region.
Of t h e s e 30, only 14 were to some e x t e n t touched by t h e d i r e c t e f f e c t of mining in t e r m s of a d r o p in groundwaLer t a b l e . Thereby, a background c o n t r o l situation could b e studled. M h e r m o r e , t h e gminas considered formed a contiguous a r e a . allowing a s p a t l a l a n a i p i s .
Ench gmina was c h a r a c b r l z e d by t h e following variables:
1. AgrfculLure inlenriiy, a n a g g r e g a t e assessment In polnts (0-100). a v e r - a g e f o r t h e y e a r s 1993-85, rro as to g e t r l d of climatic flucluations 2. P e r c e n t a p e of d a c e outside t h e groundwater decrease' a r e a ; f o r 16
gminas t h i s v a r i a b l e was 1002. f o r 12 gminas between 0 and 1002, and f o r 2 g m i w iL was OX.
'Weighborhood dislance"' from t h e mine. ranging from 0 (gmina where t h e mine and power p h t a r e locatad) Lo 4 f o r t h e f a r t h e s t gmina.
S h a r e of a g r i c u l t u r a l land. In I.
S h a r e of p s m m h e n t grasslands in a g r i c u l t u r a l land, in I.
Soil quallty. on t h e 0-100 s c a l e . Fertilizer use, in l a m of NPK psr ha.
Manure fertilization, in rolu per ha.
L a b o r r e s o u r c e s , in full Urns equivalents par 1 0 0 ha.
Traction power p e r 1 0 0 ha, traclws and h o m e s . Traction power p e r 1 0 0 h a , tractam only.
In t h e modest d a t a analysis e x e r c h e u n d e r t a k e n f o r Lhis dala set. f a c t o r analysis was f i r s t performed. At t h e a b e t . a oorreLaUon matrix was a a l c u l a l a d , as shown in Table 3. Then, Table 4 shows, f o r e a c h r o w v a r t a b l e , r a n k s of o t h e r v a r i a b l e s according Lo t h e absolula values of t h e c o r r e l a t i o n coefficients with t h e r o w v a r i a b l e , s b r t i n g with r a n k
=
1 f o r t h e column v a r i a b l e which h a s t h e s t r o n g e s t c o r r e l a t i o n with a given row variable.On t h e b a s i s of t h i s Table, t h e following conclusions c a n b e d r a m : a g r i c u l t u r a l intensity c l e a r l y i n c r e a s e s with distance from t h e mine;
Lhis can b e mainly a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e f a c r t h a t t h e s h a r e of permanent grarrslands i n c r e a s e s with d i s t a n c e from t h e mine, t h i s s h a r e being negatively c o r r e l a l e d with soil quality;
f u r t h e r m o r e , mechanization a n d / o r t r a c t i o n power a l s o i n c r e a s e with dlstance from t h e mine;
on t h e o t h e r hand, t h e use of f e r t i l i z e r s slightly d e c r e a s e s with dis- t a n c e from t h e mine, but i t c l e a r l y d o e s not influence t h e intensity index,
t h e influence of l a b o r f o r c e r e s o u r c e s , although quite low, amplified t h i s p i c t u r e s i n c e t h e s e r e s o u r c e s slightly i n c r e a s e d with distance from t h e mine and had a positive. though low, influence on t h e intensity of a g r i c u l t u r a l activities.
Two f u r t h e r phenomena should a l s o be nolad, namely:
low, b u t negaLive c o r r e l a t i o n of t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l land s h a r e of t h e Lotal land s u r f a c e with t h e s h a r e of permanent g r a s s l a n d s in a g r i c u l t u r a l land;
v e r y high
-
0.856-
c o r r e l a t i o n of t o t a l t r a c t i o n powe- with t h a t f o r tractors a l o n e (alLhough t h e Lattar v a r i a b l e cohsLILutss !zss t h a n 72% of t h e f o r m e r a t t h e a g g r e g a t e regional level), which means t h a t substitu- Lion playa qulla a s e c o n d a r y r o l e h e r e .W e s h a l l come back to t h e s e conclusions l a b r .
1 C . l c t ~ a t . d u roll-. o n u ~ m ~ a n u o 1. n ~ o t t d to ~ f t . a ~ a e a n L IL arc a t l o t ~ a d a s - h c a 1, thma dl C M r H l f i b o n di-ncr f
...
Ibbh 3 Coorralatlon matrix f o r v a r i a b l e s dascribing agriculLure s u b a r e r a s of t h e region considerad.
TubLe 4 Ranks of column-variable c o r r e l a t i o n coefficienls with a p p r o p r i a t e row v a r i a b l e s .
*-
negative c o r r e l a l i o , **- c o r r e l a L ~ o n between - 2' and +.25: ***- both.Variable No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 9 10
2 3 4 5 6 7 B 9 10 11 (
i .53 .K? .50 -.61 .62 .86 .53 .20 .60 .52
1
.67 .35 -.30 .13 -.55 .29 .42 -.2B -.I2 .32 .31 .24 .22 .46 .47 4 0 .31
.
-.30 4 .20 .39 -.25 .47 . 5 6 , -.62 .34 -.I0 .04 -.46 -.37
j
-.09 ,510 .07 .67 .58 .06 .04 .02 .13 .17 .69 69
-.
.16 .03
.~ -- ..
- - -~ 96 .. -
IL was tnLeresLing Lo look a t Lhe f a c b r s In o r d e r Lo s e e whaLher Lhelr s h a p t would c o r r o b o r a L e previously formulaLed p a r t i a l c o n c l u s ~ o n s
- - - -
Two examples of f a c b r analysis r e s u l t s a r e cited h e r e , s e e Table 5 B o l t \ w e r e calculaLad f o r t h e s h o r t e n e d s e t of v a r i a b l e s , namely 9 ouL of t h e LoLal o!
! 1 w h e r e v a r i a b l e s N o s . 4 and 11 were omitted In Lhe l i n t c a s e Lwo f a c t o r s arc:
in t h e second c a s e t h r e e f a c b n ware sought
Variable No. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 . - 11
.
i
1
1
6 1 8 3* 2lo**
5 E 4 7Pable 5 Two c a s e s of f a c t o r analysis r e s u l t s . Asterisks d e n c t e t h e "factor- forming " v a r i a b l e s .
F o r t h e s a k e of b r e v i t y , only a few resulLs a r e shown. This p o r t i o n , how- e v e r , i s quite sufficient to s e e full a g r e e m e n t with c o r r e l a t i o n s discussed previ- ously. Thus. in t h e f i r s t c a s e , when two f a c t o r s a r e established, they r e p r e s e n t , verbally
Case
F a c t o r 1 - lntensity and soil conditions
F a c t o r 2. Distance from t h e mine and permanent g r a s s l a n d s h a r e . Case 2 Variables
while in t h e second c a s e . Case
F a c t o r 1 . lntensity and n a t u r a l conditions F a c t o r 2 : P e r f o r m a n c e and d i s t a n c e from t h e mine
F a c t o r 3: Distance from t h e mine, permanent g r a s s l a n d s h a r e and f e r t i l i z e r w e .
F a c t o r 1
/
F a c t o r 2I
F a c t o r 1 F a c t o r 2I
F a c t o r 3 Case 1Hence, d e p e n d e n c e upon t h e distance from t h e mine a p p e a r s again to b e r e l a t e d to g r a s s l a n d s h a r e . Looking a t t h e r e s u l t s f o r Case 2. one c a n distinguish t h e fol- lowing .
a g r i c u l t u r a l intensity (1) i s clarply connected with g r a s s l a n d s h a r e (5).
s o i l qualfty (6), manure use as f e r t i U z e r (8). and t r a c t i o n power avail- a b l e (10);
on t h e o t h e r hand. (1) i s a l s o connected with d i s t a n c e to t h e mine (3) a n d g r o u n d w a t e r d r o p (2);
t h e Unkage between t h a r s two 1s provided by t h e dependence of mineral f e r t l l l z e r use (7) and g r a s s l a n d s h a r e ( 5 ) upon d i s t a n c e from t h e mine
0).
T h r e e q u s s t l o m c l e a r l y a r i s e :
a ) Is I t r e a l l y t r u e t h a t l i g n i t e d e p o s i t s h a p p e n Lo b e l o c a t e d in t h e l o c a l c e n t e r of b a d s o i l s a n d g r a s s l a n d [arming?
b) assuming t h i s . La what e x t e n t d o e s t h i s e x p l a i n t h e d e c l i n e of a g r i c u l - t u r a l i n t e n s i t y Laward t h e mine?
c ) how d o e s t h i s relate to t h e l a b o r f o r c e a n a l y s i s , whose r e s u l t s w e r e p r e s e n t e d b e f o r e ?
B e f o r e commenting u p o n t h e s e q u e s t i o n s , let us l a k e a n o t h e r look a t t h e r e g i o n
T h e s a m e set of d a b w a s s u b j e c t La s e v e r a l runs of c l u s t e r a n a l y s i s a s d e s c r i b e d , e.g., i n O w s i h k i (1904). T h e r u n s w e r e m e a n t La r e v e a l some of t h e g e o g r a p h i c a l r e l a t i o n s within t h e r e g i o n .
F i r s t . r u m w e r e p e r f o r m e d Caking also inLa a c c o u n t v a r i a b l e s 2 a n d 3, i . e . . t h m e r e l a t e d La d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e mine. The r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n d i c a t e d , o b v i - o u s l y , s u c h g r o u p s of gminas in t h e r e g i o n t h a t w e r e to a l a r g e d e g r e e c o n c e n t r i c with r e s p e c t Lo t h e mine. Then, a n u m b e r of r u n s w e r e t r i e d without t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s . T h e optimum p a r t i t i o n f o r o n e s u c h r u n is p r e s e n t e d s c h e m a t i c a l l y in F i g u r e 2.
C I S U S E 2. Results of c l u s t e r analysis f o r t h e r:lr. 'lth:;: . : tance-from-the-mine variables.
c r o u p i
-
':.
n r o u p 2
-
c r c u p 3
-
s r o u n I
-
:-D o u b l e boundary denotes "gni!ia'. I:, j;n;c!. r. -c 3 :.. . = l o c a t e d .
Thus. t h e r e s u l t s of clusbr a n a l y s i s c l e a r l y c o r r o b o r a t e p r e v i ~ u s c o n c l u s i o n s r e l a b d to g e o g r a p h i c a l s h a p e of a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s These r e s u l t s p r o v i d e a s t r i k i n g image of Ule s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of t ~ r r i t o r i a l unlLs in t h e a b s e n c e of v a r i a b l e s e x p r e s s i n g somehow t h e d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e c e n t e r of t h e mine.
S t i l l , h o w e v e r . t h e q u e s t i o n of tine u l t i m a t e d e p e n d e n c e i s l e f t u n r e s o l v e d
A f u r t h e r s t e p towards clarification was made with r e g r e s s i o n analysis.
again using t h e s a n e data s e t . The analysis was intended to yield only a qualita- tive insight in@ t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e phenomena. Thus, only l i n e a r models were t r i e d . Their forms were as follows:
In addition, e a c h software r u n was made in two v a r i a n t s : without elimination of v a r i a b l e s a p p e a r i n g in t h e model. a n d with elimination of t h e s e variables. elimina- tion being performed on t h e basis of a 1-Student test c r i t i c a l value. Thus, i t was in p r i n c i p l e passible to obtain similar models f o r a l l o a s e s with elimination of only t h o s e v a r i a b l e s used in c a s e s I. and Il. i.e.. those with highest c o r r e l a t i o n with xi ( v a r i a b l e s No. 2,5,6 and 10. s e e Tables 3 and 4) p r o v e d to be significant f o r t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l intensity model. This. however. p r o v e d not b e t h e c a s e , as c a n b e s e e n from Table 6.
As indicated. t h e b e s t r e s u l t s were o b h i n e d f o r c a s e s IO. 11,. IIIo with vari- a b l e elimination. On t h e basis of t h e s e r e s u l t s . Lhe following conclusions c a n b e formulaCed:
* t h e decline of a g r i c u l t u r a l intensity toward t h e devalopment c e n b r of Lhe r e g i o n Is only p a r t l y d w to t h e c o r r e l a U o n with g r a s s l a n d s h a r e distribution, o t h e r v a r i a b l e s having equal or even g r e a t e r weight (see.
e.g., v a r i a b l e 8. 1.0.. r a e of manure as f e r t i l i z e r , which, surprisingly.
influences v a r i a b l e 1 in t h e opposite d i r e c t i o n to v a r i a b l e 5. g r a s s l a n d s h a r e ) ; models imply a "disembodied" l n f l w n c e . n o t fully conlalned in t h e v a r i a b l e s mad;
model of Illo with ellmination c l e a r l y indicates t h e influence of l a b o r f o r o e r e s o u r c e s , equaling t h a t of Lhe g r a s s l a n d s h a r e , c o r r o b o r a t i n g Lhe findings of l a b o r f o m e analyses, oommanted upon p r e v i o m l y .
7bbls 8 Coafficlentv of Lhe agrlculLural lnlenslly for 12 caaea considered. All models were slgnlflcanl. Lowest slgnlflcance was for case "lI1l. No ellmlnallon", and generally for cases 1,. Ill. and Ill1 wllhoul el- Imlnallon, whlle Lhe highest was for case "lo Ellmlnallon". and gen- erally for cases I,. 11,. 111, wllh ellmlnaLlon. The lowesl error value was obLalned for "Ill, ELlmlnatlon".
.
-
. . : a -amp,rx r e g i o n a l s e t t i n g , c o n t r a d i c t o r y j u s t i f i c a t i o n s and a r g u m e n k
.
- . ., . I: : * : s e t r o g a r d r n g a developmenL u n d e r t a k i n g a n d i t s c o n s e q u e n c e s . For.
. . . , . ; - i t 0 :
.
. r e g i o n a l sustainabiliLy, e s p e c i a l l y when s u c h a n u n d e r t a k i n g i s impor- - a n t 137 Lne r e g l o n , infiuences. if n o t n e c e s s a r i l y c a u s e s a n d e f f e c t s , h a v e t o be;:+:-l!iec Only t h e n c a n r e a l l y r a t i o n a l long-ierm p o l i c i e s b e f o r m u l a t e d . The cam c o n s i d e r e d h e r e i s a clinical o n e . The i n s t i t u t i o n a l s e t t i n g a r o u n d
~ h c . development in q u e s t i o n has g e n e r a t e d c e r t a i n h y p o t h e s e s . r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s
..
....- . fl ;jo:lc:ez. Our s t u d y i n d i c a t e s that t h e s e constituLe only a p a r t i a l r e s p o n s e .:'rj:. v : L i ~ ~ i o r t IS i l l u s t n t d d by T a b l e 7 below.
l a t l c :' R e s e a r c h and policy g e r m r a t i o n s f t u a t i o n f o r t h e case c o n s i d e r e d .
. - -
A r e a
.- . . . -- . . - .- - - R e s e a r c h P o l i c y
Cap~Lal n e e d s vs a v a i i a b i : i ~ ?
Abundant Little
P a r t l y a d e q u a t e P a r t l y a d e q u a t e i a b x . . . . - . f o r c e . . - - - -. ..- - -- L i t t l e I n a d e q u a t e
:.. o r a t r ?LC e m u r e s w b i n a b i l i l y of t h i s r e g i o n , p r o p e r p o l i c i e s s h o u l d b e
.
..
.
i :-a:?.- ::,s .mpirmen:ec airnine aL t h e mechanism c a u s l n g a g r i c u l t u r a l d e c l i n e.. . . .. 'I.!,: :.:1c rI!;7:*
4 . 8 IYCPROWENT OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE FOR MANAGING