• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

Turkey, Iran and Israel in a three-sided competition

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "Turkey, Iran and Israel in a three-sided competition"

Copied!
3
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

,QWKHZDNHRIHYHQWVLQWKH0LGGOH(DVW WKHPRVWLQWHUHVWLQJWUHQGLQFXUUHQWSRZHU SROLWLFV LV QRW VR PXFK WKH EUHDNGRZQ LQ 7XUNLVK,VUDHOL UHODWLRQV ,W LV WKH UH HPHUJHQFHRI7XUNH\DVDUHJLRQDOSRZHU DORQJVLGH WKH UHYLYDO RI LWV VWURQJ DQG FRQILGHQW 6XQQL OHDGHUVKLS WR RIIVHW WKH KLVWRULFDOO\ DW\SLFDO 6KLD DVVHUWLYHQHVV RI ,UDQ DQG LWV DOOLHV 1HLWKHU (J\SW QRU 6DXGL $UDELD FDQ OD\ FODLP WR WKH OHJLWLPDF\RI$QNDUDZKLFKLVSURYLQJWR EHDUHJLRQDOSRZHUZLWKDORQJWHUPYLHZ RILWVVWUDWHJLFLQWHUHVWV

Turkey, Iran and Israel in a three-sided competition

David Gardner

June 2010

'DYLG*DUGQHULVWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDODIIDLUVHGLWRUDWWKH)LQDQFLDO7LPHVDQGDXWKRURI/DVW

&KDQFH7KH0LGGOH(DVWLQWKH%DODQFH,%7DXULV

7KHHUXSWLRQRI7XUNH\LQWKHVWRUP\JHRSROLWLFV RIWKH0LGGOH(DVWVKRXOGQRWKDYHFRPHDVD VXUSULVH2QFHWKHFROGZDUHQGHG7XUNH\ZDV ERXQGWRVHHNDELJJHUVWDJHWKDQLWVUROHZLWKLQ 1DWR DV WKH VHQWLQHO RI WKH HDVWHUQ PDUFKHV 7KRVH ZKR WKRXJKW WKLV ZRXOG EH WKH 7XUNLF ZRUOG XQGHUHVWLPDWHG WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK LQWHUHVWVZRXOGWUXPSHWKQRFXOWXUDOVHQWLPHQW RULGHRORJ\7XUNH\DVDVWDWHLVUHDVVHUWLQJLWVHOI DV D UHJLRQDO SRZHU ZKLOH DW WKH VDPH WLPH SROLF\ LV EREELQJ LQ WKH ZDNH RI FRPPHUFH SXOOHGE\DG\QDPLFEUHHGRIRXWZDUGORRNLQJ

$QDWROLDQFDSLWDOLVWV Summary

N o r e f A r t i c l e

18 June 2010

(2)

7KLV LV QRW MXVW D ¿W RI SLTXH DW WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ¶VUHOXFWDQFHWRDGYDQFH7XUNH\¶VDFFHVVLRQ QHJRWLDWLRQV1RULVLWDVWUDWHJLFWXUQHDVWRUDQ LGHRORJLFDOWLOWE\WKHQHR,VODPLVW$.3WRZDUGV 0XVOLPFRXQWULHV)RUVXUH(UGRJDQGRHVZDQW WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW D FRQ¿GHQW HFRQRPLFDOO\

G\QDPLF DQG HYHU PRUH GHPRFUDWLF 7XUNH\ KDV RSWLRQVDQGWKDWLWLVDQDVVHWWRWKH(8DQGWKH :HVWSUR¿FLHQWLQWKH³VRIWSRZHU´(XURSHVHHPV WRKDYHIRUJRWWHQKRZWRXVHLQLWVRZQ0LGGOH (DVWHUQEDFN\DUG

6HFXULQJ WKH QHLJKERXUKRRG PRUHRYHU DQG IRVWHULQJ HFRQRPLF LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH ± TXLQWHVVHQWLDO (8 SULQFLSOHV ± KDYH DOVR OHG WR LPSURYHG7XUNLVKUHODWLRQVZLWK5XVVLD*UHHFH DQG$UPHQLD QRW MXVW 0XVOLP FRXQWULHV :KLOH WKHDOOLDQFHZLWK,VUDHOKDVIUDFWXUHGRYHU*D]D DQGWKH,VUDHOLDVVDXOWRQWKH7XUNLVKÀDJJHGDLG ÀRWLOOD7XUNH\ ODVW PRQWK DOVR FDVW LWV YRWH IRU ,VUDHO¶VHQWU\LQWRWKH2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU(FRQRPLF

&RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 7KDW LV WKH EHKDYLRXURIDUHJLRQDOSRZHUZLWKDORQJWHUP YLHZ RI LWV VWUDWHJLF LQWHUHVWV QRW RI D FRXQWU\

YHHULQJWRZDUGV,VODPLVWDFWLYLVP

Egypt jaded and the Saudis sectarian

,Q D ODUJHU RSWLF 7XUNH\ ,UDQ DQG ,VUDHO DUH LQ D WKUHHVLGHG FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU GRPLQDQW LQÀXHQFH LI QRW KHJHPRQ\ LQ WKH UHJLRQ ZLWK WKH $UDEV UHGXFHG WR RQORRNHUV DV WKH\ KDYH EHHQWKURXJKRXWPRVWRIWKHSDVWIRXUFHQWXULHV (J\SW LV H[KDXVWHG FRUURGHG E\ GHVSRWLVP DQG WKH YHVWHG LQWHUHVWV EXLOW XS DURXQG D UHJLPH WKDW KDV VXUUHQGHUHG SXEOLF DQG FXOWXUDO VSDFH WRWKHFOHULFDOHVWDEOLVKPHQWWRRXWÀDQN,VODPLVW RSSRVLWLRQ DQG SRLVHG IRU D GLI¿FXOW WUDQVLWLRQ IURPWKHDJHLQJ+RVQL0XEDUDN

7KH+RXVHRI6DXGKDVPRQH\DQGRLODQGWKH OHJLWLPDF\ RI FXVWRGLDQVKLS RI WKH KRO\ SODFHV WKH+DUDPLHQRI0HFFDDQG0HGLQD%XWLWLVD JHURQWRFUDF\ FRQIURQWLQJ D VXFFHVVLRQ OLNH WKDW

$QHQGWRWKHFROGZDUPHDQWWKDWWKH%DONDQV

&HQWUDO$VLDDQGWKH&DXFDVXVDQGWKHEURDGHU 0LGGOH (DVW UHRSHQHG DV D QDWXUDO UHJLRQ RI LQÀXHQFHIRU7XUNH\7DNH,UDT±WKHFOHDUHVWFDVH ZKHUHERWKLGHRORJ\DQGWKHSHUFHLYHGLQWHUHVWRI WKHVWDWHZHUHUHVKDSHGE\FRPPHUFH

Zero problems with the neighbours

7KH7XUNLVKSDUOLDPHQWGRPLQDWHGE\WKHQHZO\

HOHFWHG-XVWLFHDQG'HYHORSPHQW3DUW\$.3RI 5HFHS 7D\\LS (UGRJDQ YRWHG DJDLQVW DOORZLQJ WKH86WRXVH7XUNLVKWHUULWRU\WRRSHQDQRUWKHUQ IURQW LQ WKH LQYDVLRQ RI ,UDT 7XUNH\ DOVR DOO EXW WKUHDWHQHG WR LQYDGH ,UDT WR SUHYHQW WKH HPHUJHQFHRID.XUGLVKPLQLVWDWHRQLWVVRXWKHUQ ERUGHUV

<HW IURP WKH PRPHQW 6DGGDP +XVVHLQ IHOO KRWHOV IURP %DJKGDG WR ,UELO EULPPHG ZLWK 7XUNLVKFRQWUDFWRUV7XUNH\KDVVLQFHVLJQHG FRPPHUFLDOWUHDWLHVZLWK,UDTDQGKHOSHGUHEXLOG ,UDTL.XUGLVWDQ,UDTLVQRZDWWKHFRUHRI7XUNH\¶V

³]HUR SUREOHPV ZLWK WKH QHLJKERXUV´ SROLF\

7R WKH H[WHQW WKDW LW DFWV DV D FRXQWHUZHLJKW WR ,UDQLDQLQÀXHQFHLQ,UDTDQGDIRUFHIRUVWDELOLW\

WKLVQHDWO\LQWHUVHFWVZLWK86DQGZHVWHUQDLPV

Turkish soft power

7KDW FRLQFLGHQFH LV OHVV REYLRXV LQ 7XUNLVK SROLFLHV WRZDUGV ,VUDHO3DOHVWLQH DQG ,UDQ )RU ZKLOH UHDVVHUWLQJ LWVHOI UHJLRQDOO\ $QNDUD DOVR DLPV WR WUDQVIRUP D FRPEXVWLEOH UHJLRQDO VWDOHPDWH 8QLTXHO\ 7XUNH\ LV ERWK D PHPEHU RI1DWRDQGFKDLUVWKHVWDWHV2UJDQL]DWLRQRI WKH,VODPLF&RQIHUHQFH7KH7XUNLVKYLHZLVWKDW ,VUDHO¶VEHOOLJHUHQWLQWUDQVLJHQFHDQGWKHVWDQGRII RYHU,UDQ¶VQXFOHDUDPELWLRQVDUHWZRSRWHQWLDOO\

GHDGO\ UHJLRQDO WULJJHUV +HQFH $QNDUD¶V SDVW HIIRUWVWRPHGLDWHEHWZHHQ,VUDHODQG6\ULDDQG ,VUDHODQGWKH3DOHVWLQLDQVLQFOXGLQJ+DPDVDV ZHOODVWKHGHDO7XUNH\DQG%UD]LOWULHGWRVHFXUH ODVWPRQWKZLWK,UDQRQKROGLQJLWVORZHQULFKHG XUDQLXPLQHVFURZ

June 2010

David Gardner: Turkey, Iran and Israel in a three-sided competition

(3)

IDFHGE\%UH]KQHY¶V6RYLHW8QLRQDQGORFNHGLQD SDFWZLWKWKH:DKKDELFOHULFDOHVWDEOLVKPHQWWKDW FDQQRWDYRLGSURMHFWLQJ6DXGLSROLF\DVVHFWDULDQ DQGUHDFWLRQDU\%DVKDUDO$VVDG¶V6\ULDFDQDFW DVDVSRLOHUOLNHLWVIRUPHU6RYLHWVSRQVRUVEXW ODFNVFULWLFDOPDVVWRVKDSHHYHQWVLQWKHUHJLRQ 7XUNH\ E\ FRQWUDVW LV JRYHUQHG E\ WKH FKDULVPDWLF DQG YLJRURXV (UGRJDQ ,WV VXFFHVV WKXVIDULQPDUU\LQJ,VODPDQGGHPRFUDF\±DQ H[SHULPHQWWKDWPD\XOWLPDWHO\GHSHQGRQWKH(8 FRQVHFUDWLQJWKHPDUULDJHYRZV±PHVPHULVHVWKH UHJLRQ7XUNH\LVVHFXODULVWDQG6XQQLSOXUDOLVW DQGRUWKRGR[

Re-emergence as a regional power

7KHPRVWLQWHUHVWLQJWUHQGWRZDWFKLVWKHUHIRUH QRW VR PXFK WKH EUHDNGRZQ LQ 7XUNLVK,VUDHOL UHODWLRQV ,W LV WKH UHHPHUJHQFH RI 7XUNH\ DV D UHJLRQDOSRZHUDORQJVLGHWKHUHYLYDORILWVVWURQJ DQG FRQ¿GHQW 6XQQL OHDGHUVKLS WR RIIVHW WKH KLVWRULFDOO\ DW\SLFDO 6KLD DVVHUWLYHQHVV RI ,UDQ DQGLWVDOOLHV

7KHUHERXQGLQ6KLDIRUWXQHVZDVWULJJHUHGE\WKH 86OHGLQYDVLRQRI,UDTLQ7KDWRYHUWXUQHG WKH 6XQQL RUGHU LQ DQ $UDE KHDUWODQG FRXQWU\

SODFLQJ WKH 6KLD LQ WKH VDGGOH IRU WKH ¿UVW WLPH VLQFHWKH)DWLPLGG\QDVW\FROODSVHGLQ,UDQ DORQHKDGEHHQXQDEOHWRVSUHDGLWV,VODPLF 5HYROXWLRQ LQWR $UDE ODQGV 7KDW UHTXLUHG WKH DJHQF\ RI *HRUJH : %XVK MXVW DV WKH DGYHQW RI +L]EROODK ,UDQ¶V PRVW SRZHUIXO SUR[\ ZDV D UHDFWLYH FRQVHTXHQFH RI ,VUDHO¶V LQYDVLRQ RI /HEDQRQLQ

$ UHFHQW VSDWH RI FRPPHQWDU\ GHVFULELQJ WKH IRUHLJQ SROLF\ RI (UGRJDQ DQG KLV SHULSDWHWLF IRUHLJQ PLQLVWHU $KPHW 'DYXWRJOX DV DQWL :HVWHUQ DQWL,VUDHOL QHR2WWRPDQ ± HYHQ D FKDOOHQJH WR ULYDO WKH WKUHDW IURP ,UDQ ± PLVVHV WKHSRLQW%\HPHUJLQJDVDSRSXODUFKDPSLRQRI 3DOHVWLQLDQULJKWV7XUNH\KDVHQGHG,UDQ¶VDELOLW\

WRPDNHWKHUXQQLQJLQWKHUHJLRQ7D\\LS(UGRJDQ QRZ HFOLSVHV +DVVDQ 1DVUDOODK RI +L]EROODK 7HKUDQ¶VPRVWSRWHQWDOO\LQWKH¿FNOHDIIHFWLRQV RIWKH$UDEVWUHHW

Whither Israel now?

,VUDHO ZKLFK QRZ FOHDUO\ VHHV 7XUNH\ DV DQ DGYHUVDU\ VHHNLQJ WR GHOHJLWLPLVH WKH -HZLVK VWDWHFDQFKDQJHWKLVHPHUJLQJQHZHTXDWLRQ,ILW GHFLGHVWRVWULNHPLOLWDULO\DJDLQVW,UDQWKDWFRXOG WULJJHUDFRQYXOVLYHFKDLQRIUHSULVDOVDFURVVDQ DUF VWUHWFKLQJ IURP HDVWHUQ $IJKDQLVWDQ WR WKH 6WUDLW RI +RUPX] XS WKH ZHVWHUQ VKRUH RI WKH

*XOILQWR,UDTDQGDFURVVWRWKH/HYDQWLQFOXGLQJ RIFRXUVH,VUDHO7KDWZRXOGOHDYH7XUNLVKSROLF\

LQ WDWWHUV FDXJKW LQ WKH FURVV¿UH EHWZHHQ ,VUDHO DQG ,UDQ ± DQG XQOHDVK D UHDOO\ GDQJHURXV QHZ G\QDPLFLQWKHUHJLRQ

June 2010

David Gardner: Turkey, Iran and Israel in a three-sided competition

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

7KLV FRS\ LV PDGH DV SDUW RI 1HZ 0DUNHW 0HFKDQLVP FDSDFLW\ EXLOGLQJ SURJUDPPH IXQGHG E\ WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI WKH (QYLURQPHQW -DSDQ

Wkh pdlq uhdvrq zk| wkh jdph deryh lv rqh0vkrw lq vdohv lv wr vwuhvv wkdw uhshdw vdohv duh qrw qhfhvvdu| wr jhw d sulfh deryh wkh Ehuwudqg rxwfrph1 Dovr wkh prgho deryh lv d orw

Vhyhudo vwxglhv kdyh hvwlpdwhg wkh lq xhqfh ri edqn sduwlflsdwlrq lq d upv fdslwdo rq wkh lqwhuhvw udwh sdlg e| wkh upv1 Vfkplg +4&lt;&lt;9, xvhv d Khuqgdko lqgh{ wr phdvxuh

Wkh idfwru lv qhjdwlyh wklv wlph/ vr zhoiduh lqfuhdvhv zlwk ghfuhdvlqj T @o d@ h@o Lq idfw wkh zhoiduh hhfwv ri sxeolf lqirupdwlrq lq wkh Ehuwudqg dqg Frxuqrw frpshwlwlrq duh

Wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| glhuv iurp wkdw xqghu prqrsrolvwlf vxsso|1 Hvshfldoo| iru kljko| fruuhodwhg frvwv wkh rswlpdo vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw

^4&lt;;:`1 Lq rxu fdvh/ zkhuh frvwv duh dvvxphg wr eh revhuydeoh/ vzlwfklqj frvwv jhqhudwh d eduulhu wr hqwu| ehfdxvh lq htxloleulxp wkhuh lv d vpdoohu vhw ri frvwv zklfk doorzv

Zh uxq d sxeolf jrrg h{shulphqw zlwk irxu glhuhqw wuhdwphqwv1 Wkh sd|r ixqfwlrq lv fkrvhq vxfk wkdw wkh Qdvk htxloleulxp +QH, dqg wkh froohfwlyh rswlpxp +FR, duh erwk lq wkh lqwhulru

Zh vkrz wkdw fdslwdo dffxpxodwlrq lv frqvwlwxwhg ri vhyhudo skdvhv dqg wkdw wkh hfrqrplf wudqvlwlrq surfhvv ghshqgv rq wkh iudjlolw| ri wkh qdqfldo v|vwhp ghqhg dv wkh ghjuhh ri