Objectives of the study
World Energy Scenarios 2016
T. Kober*, E. Panos, K. Volkart, S. Hirschberg
Energy Economics Group,
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis (LEA), Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)
* tom.kober@psi.ch
Performance of scenarios in view of the Energy Trilemma Results
Reference
World Energy Scenarios 2016 – The Grand Transition https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2016/world- energy-scenarios-2016-the-grand-transition/
Energy systems modelling
In partnership with the World Energy Council and
Accenture, the Energy
Economics Group of PSI, quantified and analysed three scenarios (named
Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock) in order to explore alternative development pathways for
the global energy system by 2060.
The Modern Jazz scenario describes a market-driven world oriented towards economic and affordable access to energy. The Unfinished Symphony scenario characterizes a rather government-driven world with coordinated international action to mitigate climate change. The Hard Rock scenario represents a rather fragmented world with low global cooperation and with priority on local energy security and
exploitation of local energy resources.
The scenario analysis was carried out by PSI using its global multi-regional
MARKAL (GMM) model . This optimisation tool
represents around 400
different energy technologies (e.g. power plants, heating devices, vehicles, etc.) with their technical, economic and environmental characteristics, and determines the least-cost configuration of the global
energy system based on 15 world regions and their
specific boundary conditions.
Results (cont.)
1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600
1970 2000 2030 2060
Global average primary energy consumption (Watt per capita)
Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 2000 Watt society
Dampened growth of world primary energy consumption and a
peaking in per capita energy consumption before 2030 due to significant efficiency gains created by new technologies and tightening policies
Demand for electricity expected to double to 2060: meeting this
demand with cleaner energy sources requires substantial infrastructure investments and system integration to deliver benefits to all consumers
Modern Jazz
Unfinished Symphony
Hard Rock
Coal 2500 1600 4200
Oil 300 300 400
Gas 9800 8100 7600
Nuclear 2300 3500 3200
Hydro 2800 3400 2700
Biomass 2500 3300 2300
Wind 12200 12900 8800
Solar 7700 10200 6600
Others 900 1300 60
Total 41000 44600 36400
Global cumulative undiscounted power generation investments
(2011-2060) billion US$2010
Wind and solar continue to grow at an unprece-
dented rate and create new
opportunities and challenges for
energy systems
Transitioning global transport forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in order to decarbonise future energy systems
Global car fleet in 2060
Reaching the 2oC climate target will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments, and with high carbon prices
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (GtCO2)
Hard Rock:
+5% compared to 2014
∫ (2010-2060)=1800 GtCO2 Modern Jazz:
-28% compared to 2014
∫ (2010-2060)=1600 GtCO2
Unfinished Symphony:
-61% compared to 2014
∫ (2010-2060)=1200 GtCO2
Paris pledges
Global cooperation, sustainable economic growth, and technology innovation are needed to balance the Energy Trilemma
The challenge is to maintain the current integrity of energy systems worldwide while steering towards a new transformed future. This
requires new policies and strategies, and consideration of novel and risky investments. The decisions taken in the next 10 years will have
profound effects on the development of the energy sector in the coming decades. To this end, the WEC/PSI scenarios provide support to the development of robust medium to long-term strategies, govern-
ment policies, as well as investment and disinvestment decisions.
w/o CCS
with CCS 0
5 10 15 20 25
Gas Coal Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar Europe
0 10 20 30 40 50
America (North+South)
~15%
~20%
0 20 40 60 80 100
~50%
Asia + Australia
total share of global annual new capacity additions
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Gas Coal Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar
historic capacity additions Modern Jazz
Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock
2011-2060
Average annualnewcapacityadditions(GW/yr)
with CCS w/o CCS
N.B.: Historical data correspond to 2000-2010 for coal and gas, to 1980-1990 for nuclear energy, and to 2010-2015 for wind and solar. The data is assembled from: EPIA (2014, 2016), GWEC (2016), IEA-PVPS (2016), IEA-CCS (2012) and Platt’s (2013).
New global capacity investments in the power sector
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1990 2013 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 Modern
Jazz
Unfinished Symphony
Hard Rock
Global primary energy consumption (EJ/yr)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East &
North Africa Latin America &
Caribbean
South East Asia
& Pacific East Asia
South & Central Asia
North America Europe
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
Global electricity generation (PWh/yr)
Other Geothermal
Solar Wind
Biomass (with CCS) Biomass
Hydro Nuclear
Gas (with CCS) Gas
Oil Coal (with CCS)
Coal
Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony
Hard Rock
2060
Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Nuclear
Coal w/o CCS Gas with CCS Gas w/o CCS
Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Electric vehicles /
Plug-in hybrids Hydrogen
Natural gas
Petroleum products (excluding hybrids) Petroleum product/
electric hybrid (excl.
plug-in hybrids)
