WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Focus on Oil & Gas
François CATTIER, International Energy Agency Francois.cattier@iea.org
Workshop on Oil & Gas Resources February 27, 2004
Berne
World Primary Energy Demand World Primary Energy Demand
Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mtoe
Oil
Natural gas Coal
Nuclear power
Hydro power Non-hydro renewables
Incremental Oil Demand by Sector (2000-2030)
-4 1 6 11 16 21
OECD Non-OECD
Power Generation Industry
Transport Other Sectors mb/d
Change in World Oil Production
-5 0 5 10 15 20
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
mb/d
OPEC M iddle Eas t Othe r OPEC Non-OPEC Non-conve ntional oil
World oil Supply
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
mb/j
non-conventionnal conventionnal
2030
World Oil Reserves and Expected Production
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
USGS 2000 BP 2003 W orld Oil 2002 W EO 2002
billion barrels
Cumulative production 2001-2030 Undiscovered
Mean reserves growth Mean remaining Reserves
USGS Resource Estimates USGS Resource Estimates
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
1.1.81 1.1.85 1.1.90 1.1.93 1.1.96
Effective assessment date
billion barrels
Cumulative production Remaining reserves
Reserves growth Undiscovered recoverable resources
1984 1987
1991 1994
2000
Year of Publication
World Natural Gas Demand World Natural Gas Demand
Most of the projected increase in gas demand comes from the power sector, while GTL plants emerge as a new outlet
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mtoe
Residential/services Industry Transport
Power generation GTL Other sectors
Gas Production by Region Gas Production by Region
The Middle East sees the biggest jump in production, but the transition economies remain the largest producing region
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300
OECD N.America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Transition economies
Asia Africa Middle East
Latin America
bcm
1990 2000 2010 2030
Net Gas
Net Gas - - Trade Flows, 2030 Trade Flows, 2030
The Middle East overtakes the transition economies as the world’s biggest gas-exporting region
Bcm
Resources are sufficient BUT
The Energy Sector will have to face 4 major Challenges :
z Security of energy supplies
z Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use
z Uneven access of the world’s population to modern energy
z Investment in energy-supply infrastructure
World oil and gas proven reserves
Gas (Tcm)
Oil (billion barrels)
56.7
58.5
6.4
11.6
14.9
7.7
8.2
520
169
61
52
61 32
53
Source : USGS 2000, cedigaz 2001
OPEC Share in World Oil Production
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
md/d
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
%
OPEC Production OPEC Share
OPEC Share in world oil production will reach 54% in 2030 from 38% today
Resources are sufficient BUT
The Energy Sector will have to face 4 major Challenges :
z Security of energy supplies
z Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use
z Uneven access of the world’s population to modern energy
z Investment in energy-supply infrastructure
Energy-Related CO
Energy-Related CO 2 2 Emissions Emissions
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
million tonnes of CO2
World OECD Transition economies Developing countries
World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels
Resources are sufficient BUT
The Energy Sector will have to face 4 major Challenges :
z Security of energy supplies
z Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use
z Uneven access of the world’s population to modern energy
z Investment in energy-supply infrastructure
Map of Global Energy Poverty Map of Global Energy Poverty
Millions of People Without Electricity Millions of People Relying on Biomass
28 20
509 530
56 96
815
221 332 801
18 570
1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
Resources are sufficient BUT
The Energy Sector will have to face 4 major Challenges :
z Security of energy supplies
z Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use
z Uneven access of the world’s population to modern energy
z Investment in energy-supply infrastructure
World Energy Investment
2001-2030
Total investment: 16 trillion dollars
Oil 19%
Electricity 60%
Coal 2%
Gas 19%
Other Refining
E&D 72%
13%
15%
E&D LNG Chain
T&D and Storage
55%
37%
8%
Power generation
T&D 54%
46%
Mining
Shipping and ports 12%
88%
Global investment of $3 trillion needed in 2001-2030 for oil and gas, respectively
Energy Investment Share in GDP
2001-2030
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
OECD Latin America Other Asia India China Middle East Other transition economies Africa Russia
per cent World average
The share of energy investment in the economy is much higher in developing countries and the transition economies than in the OECD
