• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

Polityqualities:howgovernanceaffectspoverty Moore,MickandLeavy,JenniferandHoutzager,PeterandWhite,Howard MunichPersonalRePEcArchive

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "Polityqualities:howgovernanceaffectspoverty Moore,MickandLeavy,JenniferandHoutzager,PeterandWhite,Howard MunichPersonalRePEcArchive"

Copied!
31
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Polity qualities: how governance affects poverty

Moore, Mick and Leavy, Jennifer and Houtzager, Peter and White, Howard

Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex

1999

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9467/

MPRA Paper No. 9467, posted 07 Jul 2008 02:27 UTC

(2)

3 2 / , 7 < 4 8 $ / , 7 , ( 6 + 2 : * 2 9 ( 5 1 $ 1 & (

$ ) ) ( & 7 6 3 2 9 ( 5 7 <

, ' 6 : 2 5 . , 1 * 3 $ 3 ( 5

0 L F N 0 R R U H - H Q Q L I H U / H D Y \ 3 H W H U + R X W ] D J H U D Q G + R Z D U G : K L W H

6800$5<

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

DQG QHJDWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK 5,&( *RYHUQPHQWV WKDW DUH GHSHQGHQW RQ WKHLU RZQ FLWL]HQV IRU FULWLFDOUHVRXUFHVDSSHDUPRUHHIIHFWLYHDWFRQYHUWLQJPDWHULDOUHVRXUFHVLQWRKXPDQGHYHORSPHQW 'HPRFUDF\ DSSHDUV QHLWKHU WR VWUHQJWKHQ WKLV SDUWLFXODU DFFRXQWDELOLW\ PHFKDQLVP QRU WR SOD\ DQ LQGHSHQGHQWUROHLQUDLVLQJ5,&(VFRUHVZHFRXOGILQGQRVWDWLVWLFDOFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQ5,&(DQG WKHGHJUHHRIGHPRFUDF\

7KLV LV D UHYLVHG YHUVLRQ RI D SDSHU SURGXFHG IRU WKH *RYHUQDQFH 'HSDUWPHQW RI WKH 8. 'HSDUWPHQW IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW '),' DV D FRQWULEXWLRQ WR D UHVHDUFK SURMHFW RQ WKH 5HVSRQVLYHQHVV RI 3ROLWLFDO 6\VWHPVWR3RYHUW\5HGXFWLRQ$QHDUOLHUGUDIWZDVGLVFXVVHGDWDPHHWLQJKHOGDW&DVWOH'RQQLQJWRQ8.RQ DQG$XJXVW:HDUHJUDWHIXOWRWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVDERYHDOOWR)HUQDQGR/LPRQJLIRUYHU\XVHIXOFRPPHQWV

(3)

(4)

$,1752'8&7,21:+$7,6$¶3523225·32/,7<"

2XU UHVHDUFK WDVN ZDV WR DVVHVV KRZ IDU RQH FRXOG GUDZ FRQFOXVLRQV DERXW WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI QDWLRQDO SROLWLFDO V\VWHPV ZHUH ¶SURSRRU·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

3ROLWLFDOYDULDEOHV→DJJUHJDWHHFRQRPLFJURZWK3ROLWLFDOYDULDEOHVVXFKDVWKHVWDELOLW\RI JRYHUQPHQWPD\GLUHFWO\LQIOXHQFHWKHUDWHRIHFRQRPLFJURZWK7KHPDLQSUDFWLFDOSUREOHP OLHVLQLQWHUSUHWLQJWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVWKDWXQGHUOLHVFODLPVDERXWWKHVHNLQGVRISURFHVVHV%\

RQHHVWLPDWHUHFHQWVWDWLVWLFDODQGHFRQRPHWULFDQDO\VLVKDVXQHDUWKHGGLIIHUHQWYDULDEOHVWKDW DSSHDU WR ¶H[SODLQ· YDULDWLRQV LQ QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF SHUIRUPDQFH 0DQ\ RI WKHVH H[SODQDWRU\

YDULDEOHVDUHLQWHUFRUUHODWHG)HZRIWKHVWDWLVWLFDOILQGLQJVDUHUREXVWLQWKHIDFHRIYDULDWLRQVLQ GDWD VHWV DQG LQ WKH VSHFLILFDWLRQ RI HTXDWLRQV ,W LV QRW GLIILFXOW WR JHQHUDWH VWDWLVWLFDOO\

VLJQLILFDQWFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQSROLWLFDOYDULDEOHVDQGDJJUHJDWHHFRQRPLFJURZWKSHUIRUPDQFH ,W LV H[WUHPHO\ GLIILFXOW WR DVVHVV ZKHWKHU WKHVH UHVXOWV UHDOO\ LPSO\ D FDXVDO UHODWLRQVKLS IURP SROLWLFV WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK :H ZHUH XQZLOOLQJ DQG LOOHTXLSSHG WR HQWHU WKLV YHU\ FURZGHG DQGFRQWHVWHGWHUULWRU\

3ROLWLFDO YDULDEOHV→ WKH SDWWHUQ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK 3ROLWLFDO YDULDEOHV PLJKW DOVR DIIHFW WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKH EHQHILWV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK DFFUXH WR WKH SRRU E\ DIIHFWLQJ PDUNHW UHODWLRQV DQG WKXV LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ )RU H[DPSOH D VWURQJ WUDGHV XQLRQ PRYHPHQW ZLWK FORVHWLHVWRJRYHUQPHQWPLJKWKHOSHQVXUHWKDWDKLJKSURSRUWLRQRIDGGLWLRQDOQDWLRQDOLQFRPH DFFUXHVWRRUJDQLVHGODERXUDQGWKHUHIRUHSHUKDSV WR WKH SRRU +RZHYHU WKH SUREOHPV RI WHVWLQJIRUWKLVNLQGRIRXWFRPHWKURXJKFURVVQDWLRQDOTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVDUHVLPLODUWRWKRVH VHWRXWDERYH,QSDUWLFXODUWKHUHLVWKHSUREOHPRIWDNLQJDFFRXQWRIDOOWKHRWKHUHFRQRPLF YDULDEOHVVXFKDVFKDQJHVLQSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV DQG LQ SDWWHUQV RI GHPDQG IRU GLIIHUHQW SURGXFWVDQGIRUODERXUWKDWPLJKWDOVRDIIHFWWKHVKDUHRIDGGLWLRQDOQDWLRQDOLQFRPHDFFUXLQJ WRODERXU

(5)

3ROLWLFDOYDULDEOHV→SURSRRUGLVWULEXWLRQSROLFLHV3ROLWLFDOYDULDEOHVPLJKWGLUHFWO\DIIHFW SRYHUW\ WKURXJK WKHLU HIIHFW RQ QRQPDUNHW UHGLVWULEXWLRQ )RU H[DPSOH ZHOOLQVWLWXWLRQDOLVHG VPDOO IDUPHU RUJDQLVDWLRQV PLJKW FRQWULEXWH WR SURSRRU JURZWK E\ UHGXFLQJ XUEDQ ELDV LQ SXEOLFSROLF\$OOJRYHUQPHQWVUHGLVWULEXWHQDWLRQDOLQFRPHWKURXJKWKHLUILVFDORSHUDWLRQV7R DVVHVVWKHLUSHUIRUPDQFHRQDFRPSDUDWLYHEDVLVRQHQHHGVGHWDLOHGGDWDRQKRZWKH\UDLVHDQG VSHQG PRQH\ 7KHVH GDWD DUH UDUHO\ DYDLODEOH IRU WKH SRRUHVW FRXQWULHV $ JUHDW GHDO RI ZRUN ZRXOGEHQHHGHGWRDILQGUHOLDEOHGDWDRQJRYHUQPHQWLQFRPHDQGH[SHQGLWXUHSDWWHUQVIRUD ODUJH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI SRRU FRXQWULHV DQG E WU\ WR H[SODLQ WKH SROLWLFDO GHWHUPLQDQWV RI YDULDWLRQV

3ROLWLFDOYDULDEOHV→WKHFRQYHUVLRQRIQDWLRQDOLQFRPHLQWRKXPDQGHYHORSPHQW7KLVLV WKH DSSURDFK ZH KDYH FKRVHQ WR IROORZ KHUH +RZ HIILFLHQW DUH QDWLRQDO SROLWLFDOHFRQRPLF V\VWHPV UHODWLYH WR RQH DQRWKHU LQ FRQYHUWLQJ D JLYHQ YROXPH RI QDWLRQDO PDWHULDO UHVRXUFHV

*13SHUFDSLWDLQWRKXPDQGHYHORSPHQWORQJHYLW\HGXFDWLRQDQGOLWHUDF\IRUWKHLUFLWL]HQV"

% 7+( '(3(1'(17 9$5,$%/( 5(/$7,9( ()),&,(1&< ,1

&219(57,1* 1$7,21$/ 0$7(5,$/ 5(6285&(6 ,172 +80$1 '(9(/230(17

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

• /LIHH[SHFWDQF\

• (GXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWWKDWLVLQWXUQFRPSRVHGRIWZRVXEFRPSRQHQWVDDGXOWOLWHUDF\UDWHV JLYHQDWZRWKLUGVZHLJKWLQJDQGFRPELQHGSULPDU\VHFRQGDU\DQGWHUWLDU\VFKRROHQUROPHQWV ZLWKDRQHWKLUGZHLJKWLQJ

• *'3SHUFDSLWD

7DNLQJ WKH ODWHVW DYDLODEOH +', ILJXUHV ZH UHFDOFXODWHG D PRGLILHG +', E\ RPLWWLQJ WKH

*'3 FRPSRQHQW )ROORZLQJ 81'3 SUDFWLFH ZH FDOO WKLV +', +', WKHUHIRUH FRPSULVHV WZR

)RUSUHFLVHGHWDLOVRQWKHFDOFXODWLRQSURFHGXUHVVHHWKHDQQXDO81'3+XPDQ'HYHORSPHQW5HSRUWV

(6)

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

1RWHWKDW5,&(OLNHWKH+',GDWDVHWIURPZKLFKLWGHULYHVPHDVXUHVWZRGLVWLQFWO\GLIIHUHQW YDULDEOHVORQJHYLW\DQGOLWHUDF\HGXFDWLRQ2XUUHVXOWVLOOXVWUDWHWKHSRLQWWKDWLVNQRZQIURPHDUOLHU VWXGLHV3 DQG LQGHHG SURYLGHV WKH ZKROH UDWLRQDOH IRU SURGXFLQJ WKH +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW ,QGH[

WKDWWKHVHWZRYDULDEOHVDUHQRWDOZD\VFORVHO\FRUUHODWHG:HKDYHDWWHPSWHGWRH[SODLQVHSDUDWHO\

WKHORQJHYLW\DQGWKHOLWHUDF\HGXFDWLRQ FRPSRQHQWV RI 5,&( LH 5,&(/21* DQG 5,&(('

:HDOVRGHILQHG5,&(XVLQJWZRDOWHUQDWLYHPHDVXUHVRISHUFDSLWDLQFRPH*13DQG*'3DWSXUFKDVLQJ SRZHUSDULW\7KHFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVEHWZHHQWKHWKUHHPHDVXUHVRI5,&(DOOH[FHHGHG+HQFHDVLVWR EH H[SHFWHG VHQVLWLYLW\ WHVWV RQ WKH FRHIILFLHQWV RI VSHFLILFDWLRQV XVLQJ DV WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH WKH DOWHUQDWLYH PHDVXUHVRI5,&(GLGQRWJUHDWO\DIIHFWWKHUHVXOWVLQWHUPVRIVL]HVLJQDQGVLJQLILFDQFHRIFRHIILFLHQWV7KH\GLG QRWDIIHFWRXUPDLQILQGLQJVDWDOO

)RU VLPLODU ILQGLQJV VHH $ 6HQ 3XEOLF $FWLRQ DQG WKH 4XDOLW\ RI /LIH LQ 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWULHV 2[IRUG

%XOOHWLQRI(FRQRPLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFVDQG3'DVJXSWD:HOO%HLQJDQGWKH([WHQWRI,WV5HDOLVDWLRQ LQ3RRU&RXQWULHV(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO&RQIHUHQFH

(7)

UHVSHFWLYHO\RQO\EHFDXVHWKLVKDVKHOSHGWRWKURZOLJKWRQDPLQRUSX]]OHWKDWZHKDYHODEHOOHG WKH$IULFDUHODWHGLVVXHVHH6HFWLRQ'

,Q VXP ZKLOH ZH DUH KXQJU\ IRU EHWWHU PHDVXUHV RI RXU GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH ZH DUH QRW GHVSHUDWH7KHVLWXDWLRQLQUHODWLRQWRWKHH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVLVOHVVURV\

&7+((;3/$1$725<9$5,$%/(6

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

,QJHQHUDORXUH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVDUHOHVVVDWLVIDFWRU\WKDQRXUGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH5,&(LQ WKHVHQVHWKDWWKH\RIWHQDUHLQGLUHFWSUR[LHVIRUWKHWKLQJVZHZRXOGOLNHWRPHDVXUH*LYHQWKHVH OLPLWDWLRQVLWZDVVRPHWKLQJRIDVXUSULVHWKDWVHYHUDOWXUQHGRXWWREHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWDQG WKDWWKH\MRLQWO\H[SODLQXSWRRIWKHREVHUYHGLQWHUFRXQWU\YDULDQFHLQ5,&(

2XU PRGHOV DOO LQFRUSRUDWH D WLPH ODJ 7KH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 5,&( UHODWHV WR 7KH H[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVDUHLQPRVWFDVHVPHDVXUHGDVDQDYHUDJHIRUWKHV:HGLGQRW WHVWDOWHUQDWLYHWLPHODJVGDWDFRQVWUDLQWVZRXOGPDNHWKLVGLIILFXOWVHH$QQH[2QH7KHUHZDVD SDUWLFXODU UHDVRQ IRU PHDVXULQJ RXU LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV RYHU WKH V ,QFRPH IURP PLQHUDO H[SRUWV ZDV K\SRWKHVLVHG WR EH DQ LPSRUWDQW H[SODQDWRU\ IDFWRU DQG LQGHHG SURYHG WR EH %XW ZRUOGPLQHUDOSULFHVDUHQRWYHU\VWDEOH7KHGHFDGHRIWKHVZDVDSHULRGRIUHODWLYHVWDELOLW\

0RVWRIWKHH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVWKDWZHKDYHXVHGLQRXUSUHIHUUHGUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOGHULYH IURP WKH XQGHUO\LQJ K\SRWKHVHV ZH ZHUH WHVWLQJ RU IURP LQVSHFWLRQ RI HDUO\ UHJUHVVLRQ UHVXOWV +RZHYHUZHXVHGDFOXVWHULQJSURFHVVWRVHOHFWIURPDZLGHUDQJHRISRWHQWLDOH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHV WKDWDUHSROLWLFDOLQWKHQDUURZVHQVHRIWKHWHUP)LUVWZHLGHQWLILHGIRXUWHHQSRWHQWLDOO\LQWHUHVWLQJ SROLWLFDO YDULDEOHV IURP WZR PDLQ FURVVQDWLRQDO SROLWLFDO GDWD VHWV QLQH IURP 3ROLW\ ,,,4 DQG ILYH

$XWRFUDF\ $872& 'HPRFUDF\ '(02& ([HFXWLYH 5HFUXLWPHQW 5HJXODWLRQ ;55(* ([HFXWLYH 5HFUXLWPHQW &RPSHWLWLRQ ;5&203 ([HFXWLYH 5HFUXLWPHQW 2SHQQHVV ;523(1 ([HFXWLYH &RQVWUDLQWV

;&2167 5HJXODWLRQ RI 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ 3$55(* &RPSHWLWLYHQHVV RI 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ 3$5&203

&HQWUDOLVDWLRQRI6WDWH$XWKRULW\&(17

(8)

IURP,&5*5,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RXQWU\5LVN*XLGH )RXUWHHQ LV VWLOO ODUJH QXPEHU %HFDXVH VRPH RI WKHP DUH OLNHO\ WR EH KLJKO\ LQWHUFRUUHODWHG LW ZRXOG QRW EH VHQVLEOH WR HQWHU WKHP DOO LQWR D UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ WKH UHVXOWLQJ PXOWLFROOLQHDULW\ ZRXOG UHGXFH WKH PHDVXUHG VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH RI WKH UHVXOWLQJ FRHIILFLHQWV +HQFH ZH WHVWHG IRU DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKHVH IRXUWHHQ SROLWLFDOYDULDEOHVDLPLQJWRJURXSWKHPLQWRFOXVWHUVDQGFKRRVHRQHYDULDEOHIURPHDFKFOXVWHU6

7KHUHZDVDKLJKGHJUHHRIDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQPDQ\RIWKHSROLWLFDOYDULDEOHV 7KHUH DUH SRVVLEOH FRPELQDWLRQV RI WKH YDULDEOHV $ERXW KDOI WKH SDLULQJV RXW RI WKH ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ DVVRFLDWHG DW WKH OHYHO DQG DERXW D WKLUG DW WKH OHYHO :H JURXSHG WRJHWKHU WKRVHYDULDEOHVWKDWZHUHVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWHGDWWKHOHYHO7KLVOHIWHLJKWRXWRIWKHQLQH3ROLW\

,,,YDULDEOHVLQRQHFOXVWHUZLWK&HQWUDOLVDWLRQRI6WDWH$XWKRULW\ &(17 VWDQGLQJ DORQH DQG DOO ILYH ,&5* YDULDEOHV LQ D VHFRQG FOXVWHU ,Q SULQFLSOH RQH YDULDEOH ZDV WR EH FKRVHQ IURP HDFK FOXVWHULQRUGHUWRJHWFLUFXPYHQWWKHSUREOHPRIVWURQJFRUUHODWLRQVDPRQJWKHVHSDUDWHLQGLFDWRUV DQG WKH FRQVHTXHQW ULVN RI PXOWLFROOLQHDULW\ )URP WKH FOXVWHU RI 3ROLW\ ,,, YDULDEOHV 'HPRFUDF\

'(02&ZDVVHOHFWHGDVDQH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHIRURXUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHODV ZDV FHQWUDOLVDWLRQ

&(17 )RU UHDVRQV H[SODLQHG EHORZ ZH XVHG D FRPSRVLWH PHDVXUH RI DOO ILYH RI WKH ,&5*

YDULDEOHVPHDVXULQJWKH4XDOLW\RI*RYHUQPHQW,QVWLWXWLRQV

,QPRUHGHWDLOWKHYDULDEOHVDFWXDOO\XVHGLQUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVDUH

3RSXODWLRQGHQVLW\

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

GHPDQGVLGHUHODWLRQVKLSGHQVHSRSXODWLRQIDFLOLWDWHVSROLWLFDOPRELOLVDWLRQDQGWKXVLQFUHDVHV WKHSROLWLFDOSUHVVXUHIRUHIIHFWLYHZLGHVSUHDGVHUYLFHSURYLVLRQ7KHSRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\YDULDEOH 323'(16( LV PHDVXUHG DV WKH DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI SHRSOH SHU VTXDUH NLORPHWUH RYHU WKH

5LVN RI 5HSXGLDWLRQ RI &RQWUDFWV E\ *RYHUQPHQW 5LVN RI ([SURSULDWLRQ &RUUXSWLRQ 5XOH RI /DZ DQG

%XUHDXFUDWLF4XDOLW\

:H XVHG D FKLVTXDUH WHVW IRU DVVRFLDWLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ FRUUHODWLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU WZR UHDVRQV )LUVW WKH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWLVDPHDVXUHRIWKHH[WHQWRIDOLQHDUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHWZRYDULDEOHV,WZLOOSLFNXSQRQOLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLSVRQO\LPSHUIHFWO\6HFRQGWKHVFRUHVXVHGLQPHDVXULQJVRPHRIWKHYDULDEOHVDUHFDWHJRULFDOLHWKH LQFUHPHQWEHWZHHQDQGQHHGQRWEHWKHVDPHDVWKDWEHWZHHQDQG7KH\DUHWKHUHIRUHLQDSSURSULDWHIRUWKH FRUUHODWLRQPRGHO

(9)

V7 9LVXDO LQVSHFWLRQ RI WKH GDWD LQGLFDWHG WKDW %DQJODGHVK LV DQ DQRPDO\ LWV SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\LVWKUHHWLPHVWKHOHYHO RI WKH QH[W FRXQWU\ RQ WKH VFDOH VHH )LJXUH LQ $QQH[ )LYH 7KLV RXWO\LQJ REVHUYDWLRQ ZDV JRLQJ WR GLVWRUW WKH UHJUHVVLRQ UHVXOWV :H WKHUHIRUH RPLWWHG

%DQJODGHVKIURPWKHVDPSOH

'HPRFUDF\

7KH PHDVXUHPHQW RI GHPRFUDF\ LV D FRPSOH[ EXVLQHVV ZLWK DQ LQGLIIHUHQW UHFRUG IRU SURGXFW TXDOLW\ :H GR QRW KDYH D VLQJOH FRPSUHKHQVLYH LQWHUQDWLRQDO GDWD VHULHV WKDW LV JHQHUDOO\

DFFHSWHGWREHUHOLDEOHDQGWREHPHDVXULQJWKHULJKWWKLQJV2QHPDLQD[LVRIGLVSXWHKDVGHHS WKHRUHWLFDO DQG LGHRORJLFDO URRWV 6KRXOG GHPRFUDF\ EH FRQFHLYHG DQG PHDVXUHG EDVLFDOO\ LQ HOHFWRUDOWHUPVLHDFFRUGLQJWRWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWVDUHFKRVHQWKURXJK IUHH HOHFWLRQV KHOG XQGHU XQLYHUVDO DGXOW VXIIUDJH" 2U VKRXOG RQH DOVR WR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW

¶GHHSHU·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

:H WULHG WR GHDO ZLWK WKLV SUREOHP E\ XVLQJ WZR GLIIHUHQW GDWD EDVHV EDVHG RQ FRQWUDU\

SULQFLSOHV7KHGHPRFUDF\LQGLFDWRUXVHGLQRXUUHSRUWHGUHVXOWV'(02&LVIURPWKH3ROLW\

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

:H WRRN DQ DYHUDJH IRU WKH \HDUV DQG 1RWH WKDW DYHUDJH SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ LV QRW WKH SHUIHFW PHDVXUHRIRXUXQGHUO\LQJFRQFHSWWKDWILJXUHZRXOGEHWKHVDPHIRUDFRXQWU\ZLWKSRSXODWLRQHTXDOO\GLVSHUVHG DQGDQRWKHULGHQWLFDOLQDUHDDQGWRWDOSRSXODWLRQZKHUHRIWKHSRSXODWLRQOLYHGLQRIWKHDUHD<HWWKH ODWWHUZRXOG\LHOGPRUHHFRQRPLHVLQVHUYLFHSURYLVLRQ

)RU VRPH GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKHVH LVVXHV VHH IRU H[DPSOH 0 $OYDUH] HW DO &ODVVLI\LQJ 3ROLWLFDO 5HJLPHV 6WXGLHV LQ &RPSDUDWLYH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW )RU HYLGHQFH RQ WKH LQFRQVLVWHQF\ RI GLIIHUHQW GDWD VHULHVVHH'HDQ(0F+HQU\4XDQWLWDWLYH0HDVXUHVRI'HPRFUDF\LQ$IULFD'HPRFUDWL]DWLRQIRUWKFRPLQJ

(10)

ELQDU\ PHDVXUH RI GHPRFUDF\ IURP D GDWD VHULHV WKDW JRHV EDFN WR IRU PDQ\ FRXQWULHV

$OYDUH] HW DO :H DOVR WRRN DGYDQWDJH RI WKLV KLVWRULFDO GHSWK WR WHVW WKH SURSRVLWLRQ WKDWWKHLQIOXHQFHRIGHPRFUDF\RQ5,&(LVREVHUYDEOHRQO\RYHUDORQJHUWLPHVFDOHWKDQWKH RQH ZH KDYH RWKHUZLVH XVHG LQ WKLV DQDO\VLV :H IRUPXODWHG WKLV DOWHUQDWLYH PHDVXUH RI WKH '(02&YDULDEOHLQWZRGLIIHUHQWZD\VDVWKHQXPEHURI\HDUVWKDWFRXQWULHVKDGEHHQVFRUHG DVGHPRFUDFLHVDRYHUWKHWHQ\HDUSHULRGDQGERYHUWKH\HDUSHULRG

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

YHU\VLJQLILFDQWLVDQLQGLFDWLRQWKDWGHPRFUDF\LVFHUWDLQO\QRWDVWURQJGHWHUPLQDQWRI5,&(

6WDWH6RFLHW\5HODWLRQV

7KHPDLQK\SRWKHVLVWKDWZHVHWRXWWRWHVWLQLWLDOO\ZDVWKHUHODWLYHO\DEVWUDFWSURSRVLWLRQWKDW 5,&( ZRXOG EH VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ D EURDG VHW RI YDULDEOHV HQFRPSDVVHG XQGHU WKH FRQFHSW RI WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKH VWDWH LV GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH PDVV RI LWV FLWL]HQV IRU NH\

UHVRXUFHV 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV VWHPV IURP RQJRLQJ ZRUN E\ 0RRUH RQ WKH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI YDULDWLRQVLQWKHTXDOLW\RIJRYHUQDQFHLQSRRUFRXQWULHV7KDWZRUNKDVEHHQRULHQWHGPDLQO\

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

7KHUHDUHYDULRXVZD\VLQSULQFLSOHRIWHVWLQJWKHILVFDOGLPHQVLRQVRIWKHEURDGHUDUJXPHQW DERXWWKHPDOLJQHIIHFWVRIVWDWHLQGHSHQGHQFHRIFLWL]HQVIRUNH\UHVRXUFHV$OOWKHPRUHGLUHFW DQGREYLRXVVSHFLILFDWLRQVUHTXLUHGDWDWKDWVLPSO\DUHQRWDYDLODEOHIRUPDQ\FRXQWULHVUHOLDEOH

$QHDUO\YHUVLRQRIWKHVHLGHDVIRFXVLQJPDLQO\RQDLGDVDW\SHRIXQHDUQHGLQFRPHLV0LFN0RRUH¶'HDWK ZLWKRXW7D[HV'HPRFUDF\6WDWH&DSDFLW\DQG$LG'HSHQGHQFHLQWKH)RXUWK:RUOG·LQ05RELQVRQDQG*

:KLWHHGV7KH'HPRFUDWLF'HYHORSPHQW6WDWH3ROLWLFVDQG,QVWLWXWLRQDO'HVLJQ2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV

(11)

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

%DQN:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV,WZRXOGKDYHEHHQSUHIHUDEOHWRPHDVXUHWKHUDWLR RI DLG WR JRYHUQPHQW LQFRPH RU H[SHQGLWXUH UDWKHU WKDQ WR *'3 WKDW LV LPSOLHG E\ RXU XQGHUO\LQJK\SRWKHVHV7KHODFNRIDGHTXDWHGDWDRQJRYHUQPHQWLQFRPHDQGH[SHQGLWXUHIRU SRRUHUFRXQWULHVFORVHGRIIWKDWDYHQXH

7KH4XDOLW\RI*RYHUQPHQW,QVWLWXWLRQV

7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RXQWU\ 5LVN *XLGH ,&5* SURYLGHV D VHW RI PHDVXUHV RI WKH TXDOLW\ RI SXEOLF LQVWLWXWLRQV WKDW KDYH EHHQ XVHG H[WHQVLYHO\ IRU TXDQWLWDWLYH UHVHDUFK $OO DUH EDVHG RQ H[SHUW MXGJHPHQW 7KH\ DUH SURGXFHG IRU LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQYHVWRUV DQG OHQGHUV 7ZR RI WKHLU FRPSRQHQW PHDVXUHV *RYHUQPHQW &RUUXSWLRQ VFDOHG DQG %XUHDXFUDWLF 4XDOLW\

SXUSRUWWRPHDVXUHWKHTXDOLW\RIJRYHUQPHQWSHUIRUPDQFHLQJHQHUDO7KUHHRWKHUVUHODWHPRUH GLUHFWO\ WR FRQWUDFW HQIRUFHPHQW DQG WKXV WKH FRQFHUQV RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQYHVWRUV 5LVN RI ([SURSULDWLRQ 5XOH RI /DZ PHDVXULQJ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKHUH DUH HVWDEOLVKHG SHDFHIXO PHFKDQLVPV IRU DGMXGLFDWLQJ GLVSXWHV DQG 5LVN RI 5HSXGLDWLRQ RI FRQWUDFWV E\

JRYHUQPHQW 7KH ILYH FRPSRQHQWV DUH KLJKO\ LQWHUFRUUHODWHG :KHQ WKH\ DYHUDJH IRU HDFK\HDUZHUHXVHGDVVHSDUDWHYDULDEOHVLQHDUO\UHJUHVVLRQVWKH\ZHUHQRWJHQHUDOO\

VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW :H WKHQ IROORZHG .QDFN DQG .HHIHU12 DQG FRPELQHG WKHP LQWR RQH

7KLVLVVLPSO\GHPRQVWUDWHGE\ORRNLQJDWWKHSURSRUWLRQRIFRXQWULHVLQGLIIHUHQWLQFRPHJURXSVIRUZKLFKWKH :RUOG%DQNIHHOVLWFDQFRQILGHQWO\FLWHUHFHQWILJXUHVRQDVWDWLVWLFDVEDVLFDVWRWDOFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXH RIKLJKLQFRPHFRXQWULHVRIPLGGOHLQFRPHFRXQWULHVDQGRIORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHV:RUOG 'HYHORSPHQW5HSRUW7DEOHUHODWLQJWR

7RUHGXFHWKHODERXULQSXWZHWRRNWKHDYHUDJHRI\HDUVDQG

6 .QDFN DQG 3 .HHIHU ,QVWLWXWLRQV DQG (FRQRPLF 3HUIRUPDQFH &URVV&RXQWU\ 7HVWV 8VLQJ $OWHUQDWLYH ,QVWLWXWLRQDO0HDVXUHV(FRQRPLFVDQG3ROLWLFV

(12)

FRPSRVLWHPHDVXUHRQDVFDOHRI²E\VLPSOHDJJUHJDWLRQ13:HFDOOWKLV48$/32/WKH JHQHUDOTXDOLW\RIJRYHUQPHQWLQVWLWXWLRQV7KHKLJKHUWKHVFRUHWKHEHWWHUWKHTXDOLW\

&HQWUDOLVDWLRQRI*RYHUQPHQW'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ

$VH[SODLQHGDERYHWKLVYDULDEOHZDVXVHGLQSDUWEHFDXVHLWZDVQRWFRUUHODWHGZLWKRWKHUVLQ WKH3ROLW\,,,GDWDEDVH,WIRUPHGDVHSDUDWHFOXVWHU:KLOHLWZDVSRVLWLYHO\UHODWHGWR5,&(DQG DSSHDUHG VLJQLILFDQW LQ HDUO\ UHJUHVVLRQV LH PRUH FHQWUDOLVDWLRQ KLJKHU 5,&( LWV HIIHFWV HYDSRUDWHG ZKHQ RWKHU YDULDEOHV ZHUH DGGHG 1RWH WKDW LW DSSHDUV WR EH D SRRU PHDVXUH RI DFWXDOFHQWUDOLVDWLRQWKHVFRUHVDUHGHWHUPLQHGE\IRUPDODGPLQLVWUDWLYHDUUDQJHPHQWVZLWKQR DOORZDQFHIRUGLIIHUHQFHVLQFRXQWU\VL]H

7KH$IULFDUHODWHG'XPP\

9LVXDO LQVSHFWLRQ RI WKH GDWD LQ 7DEOH DQG H[DPLQDWLRQ RI HDUO\ UHJUHVVLRQ UHVXOWV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKHUH ZDV VRPHWKLQJ ZH ZHUH QRW SLFNLQJ XS LQ RXU WKHRU\ DQG UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO ,W PDQLIHVWHG LWVHOI PRVW FOHDUO\ LQ WKH IDFW WKDW D KLJK SURSRUWLRQ RI FRXQWULHV ZLWK WKH ORZHVW 5,&( VFRUHV ZHUH LQ )UDQFRSKRQH $IULFD :H XVHG IRXU GLIIHUHQW $IULFDUHODWHG GXPP\

YDULDEOHV WR WU\ WR FDSWXUH WKLV HIIHFW 7KH FRXQWULHV WKDW DUH FRYHUHG E\ HDFK DOWHUQDWLYH IRUPXODWLRQDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOHLQ$QQH[7KUHH

• $IULFDVLPSO\EHLQJLQ$)5,&$

• )UDQFRSKRQH$IULFD)5$)5,&$

• 'HSHQGHQW,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKH LGHDV DERXW VWDWHVRFLHW\ UHODWLRQV VNHWFKHG RXW DERYH ZH K\SRWKHVLVHG WKDW LQWHUQDWLRQDO SROLWLFDO DQG PLOLWDU\ GHSHQGHQFH PLJKW EH D VLJQLILFDQW IDFWRU KHUH7RWKHH[WHQWWKDWJRYHUQPHQWVFDQUHO\RQSROLWLFDODQGPLOLWDU\VXSSRUWIURPDIRUPHU FRORQLDO SRZHU WKH\ KDYH OHVV LQFHQWLYH WR WUHDW FLWL]HQV ZHOO RU WR FXOWLYDWH LQWHUQDO SROLWLFDO VXSSRUW7KLVZRXOGOLNHO\OHDGWRORZ5,&(VFRUHV1LQHFRXQWULHVDOO$IULFDQZHUHFODVVLILHG DVEHLQJGHSHQGHQWLQWKLVVHQVH'(3(1'14

• :HVW$IULFD:$)5,&$

.QDFNDQG.HHIHUSVLPSO\DJJUHJDWHGWKHILYHLQGLYLGXDOVFRUHVILQGLQJWKDWLWPDGHQRGLIIHUHQFHWRWKHLU UHVXOWVWRXVHWKLVSURFHGXUHRUWRUHVFDOHWKUHHRIWKHPHDVXUHVRQWRDVFDOHDQGWKHPFRPELQHWKHPLQWRD FRPSRVLWHVFDOH:HIROORZHGWKHODWWHUSURFHGXUH

7KHFODVVLILFDWLRQZDVPDGHE\FRQVXOWLQJWKUHHH[SHUWVRQFRQWHPSRUDU\$IULFDZLWKRXWWHOOLQJWKHPWKHSXUSRVHV EHKLQGLW7KHFRXQWULHVFODVVLILHGDVGHSHQGHQWDUH%XUNLQD)DVR&DPHURRQ&{WH'·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

(13)

'0$,15(68/76

)RU D VDPSOH VL]H RI UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQV RI WKH IROORZLQJ IRUP ZHUH VSHFLILHG DQG HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ2UGLQDU\/HDVW6TXDUHV2/6

< αβL;Lε

:KHUH L «

7KH IROORZLQJ LV D FRPSOHWH OLVWLQJ RI WKH YDULDEOHV WKDW ZHUH DW YDULRXV SRLQWV XVHG LQ UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV

< 7KUHHGLIIHUHQWIRUPXODWLRQVRIWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH5,&(5,&(/21*UHODWLQJ RQO\WRWKHORQJHYLW\FRPSRQHQWRI+',DQG5,&(('UHODWLQJRQO\WRWKH OLWHUDF\HGXFDWLRQFRPSRQHQWRI+',

; $,'DLGDVRI*13

; 0,1(5$/PLQHUDOH[SRUWVDVRI*13

; 48$/32/LQGH[RIJHQHUDOTXDOLW\RIJRYHUQPHQWLQVWLWXWLRQV

; 323'(16(SRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\

; )RXUGLIIHUHQWIRUPXODWLRQVRIWKH$IULFDUHODWHGGXPP\YDULDEOH$)5,&$

)5$)5,&$'(3(1'DQG:$)5,&$

; '(02&GHPRFUDF\PHDVXUHGLQWKUHHGLIIHUHQWZD\V

; &(17FHQWUDOLVDWLRQRIJRYHUQPHQW

; '/$&GXPP\IRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQG&DULEEHDQ

; '$6,$GXPP\IRU$VLD

([SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHV;WR;ZHUHGURSSHGZKHQHDUO\UHJUHVVLRQHTXDWLRQVDQGH[DPLQDWLRQRI SDUWLDO UHVLGXDO SORWV LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH\ ZHUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ LQVLJQLILFDQW 7KLV JDYH XV RXU SUHIHUUHG PRGHOWKDWZDVUHHVWLPDWHGZLWKILYHH[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV DQG IRXU GLIIHUHQW GHILQLWLRQV RI ; WKH $IULFDORFDWLRQ GXPP\ DQG WKUHH GLIIHUHQW GHILQLWLRQV RI WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 3DUWLDO UHVLGXDOSORWVVXJJHVWHGWKDWLQWKHFDVHRIWKH$,'DQG0,1(5$/YDULDEOHVWKHUHZHUHFOXVWHUVRI LQIOXHQWLDOSRLQWVRXWOLHUVZKLFKFRXOGEHH[HUWLQJVXEVWDQWLDOLQIOXHQFHRQWKHUHVXOWV)LJXUHV DQGLQ$QQH[7KHPRGHOZDVHVWLPDWHGZLWKDQGZLWKRXWWKHVHFOXVWHUVRILQIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV

7KHUHVXOWVRIPXOWLSOHUHJUHVVLRQHTXDWLRQVDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOHVWRRI$QQH[)RXU 1RWH WKDW ZH DUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ WKH HTXDWLRQV LQ ZKLFK 5,&(/21* DQG 5,&((' DUH XVHG DV GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV RQO\ WR WKH H[WHQW WKDW WKH\ KHOS XV LQWHUSUHW WKH VLJQLILFDQFH RI WKH $IULFD UHODWHGGXPP\YDULDEOH:HGRQRWRWKHUZLVHFRPPHQWRQWKHP7KHPDLQUHVXOWVDUHDVIROORZV

(14)

7KH FRHIILFLHQWV RQ 0,1(5$/ DQG 323'(16( HVSHFLDOO\ WKH IRUPHU ZHUH FRQVLVWHQWO\

QHJDWLYHDQGVLJQLILFDQWDWOHDVWDWWKHOHYHO

7KH$,'YDULDEOHZDVQHJDWLYHO\UHODWHGWR5,&(DQGVLJQLILFDQWLQVRPHFDVHV+RZHYHULWLV HYLGHQWIURPWKHVFDWWHUSORWRIWKHUHVLGXDOVIURPWKHUHJUHVVLRQ)LJXUHLQ$QQH[)LYHWKDW WZR SDUWLFXODU REVHUYDWLRQV DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GULYLQJ WKLV UHVXOW 7KHVH DUH WKH REVHUYDWLRQV UHODWLQJWRWKH*DPELDDQG*XLQHD%LVVDXWZRYHU\VPDOOFRXQWULHVZLWKWKHKLJKHVWDLGOHYHOV LQ WKH VDPSOH DQG RI *13 UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH WZR $,' LQIOXHQWLDO SRLQWV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKH GDWD VHW DQG WKH PRGHO UHHVWLPDWHG Q $,' LV QRZ QR ORQJHU D VLJQLILFDQWH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHHYHQDWWKHOHYHO:HKDYHSUHVHQWHGPRVWRIRXUIXUWKHU VHWVRIUHVXOWVERWKLQFOXGLQJDQGWKHQH[FOXGLQJWKHVHWZRLQIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV:HFDQFRQFOXGH WKDW YHU\ KLJK OHYHOV RI DLG GHSHQGHQFH DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ORZ 5,&( VFRUHV EXW WKDW WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS GRHV QRW KROG RYHU WKH UDQJH RI DLG GHSHQGHQFH ORZ DLG GHSHQGHQFH GRHV QRW LPSO\ KLJK 5,&( VFRUHV15 2YHUDOO WKHVH UHVXOWV LPSO\ WKDW WKHUH PD\ EH VRPH YDOLGLW\ LQ WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW KLJK DLG GHSHQGHQFH OHDGV WR ORZ 5,&( VFRUHV YLD WKH FDXVDO SURFHVVHV VNHWFKHGRXWLQ6HFWLRQ&

7KHUHDUHILYH0,1(5$/LQIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV²%RWVZDQD*DERQ6DXGL$UDELD2PDQ$QJROD²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

2QH RI RXU YDULDEOHV 48$/32/ JHQHUDWHG D VXUSULVH :H IRXQG WKDW LW LV FRQVLVWHQWO\

VLJQLILFDQWO\ EXW QHJDWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK 5,&( WKH KLJKHU WKDW JRYHUQPHQW LQVWLWXWLRQV DUH VFRUHGIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOLQYHVWRUVDQGOHQGHUVWKHZRUVHWKHJRYHUQPHQWV SHUIRUPLQFRQYHUWLQJQDWLRQDOLQFRPHLQWRKXPDQGHYHORSPHQW,WZDVQRJUHDWVXUSULVHWKDW 48$/32/ZDVQRWSRVLWLYHO\UHODWHGZLWK5,&(WKHSULRULWLHVRILQWHUQDWLRQDOLQYHVWRUVDQG WKH ZD\ WKDW VWDWHV UHVSRQG WR WKHP DUH GLIIHUHQW IURP WKRVH RI SRRU SHRSOH DQG JHQHUDOO\

:HDUHGHDOLQJKHUHZLWKDVPDOOZLQGRZLQWRDFRPSOH[SDWWHUQRIUHODWLRQVKLSV,WLVSRVVLEOHIRUH[DPSOHWKDW VRPHDLGGRQRUVDUHDFWLYHDJHQWVDQGWU\WRHQVXUHWKDWDLGLVXVHGWRSURPRWHKXPDQGHYHORSPHQW

(15)

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

PHDVXUHV RI YHU\ VLPLODU FRQFHSWV IRU WKH VDPH FRXQWULHV DW WKH VDPH SRLQW LQ WLPH ZDV VWDWLVWLFDOO\LQVLJQLILFDQW7KLVLVVWURQJHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHJRYHUQDQFHIDFWRUVWKDWPDWWHU WRLQWHUQDWLRQDOLQYHVWRUVDQGOHQGHUVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKRVHWKDWUHODWHWRSRYHUW\

UHGXFWLRQ7KLVUHPLQGVXVWKDWJRRGJRYHUQDQFHLVLWVHOIDSROLWLFDODQGFRQWHVWHGFRQFHSW $OOIRXUDOWHUQDWLYHGHILQLWLRQVRIWKH$IULFDUHODWHGGXPP\YDULDEOHZHUHQHJDWLYHO\UHODWHGWR

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

3(YDQVDQG-5DXVFK%XUHDXFUDF\DQG*URZWK$&URVV1DWLRQDO$QDO\VLVRIWKH(IIHFWVRI:HEHULDQ6WDWH 6WUXFWXUHVRQ(FRQRPLF*URZWK%HUNHOH\

)RU D XVHIXO GLVFXVVLRQ RI ORFDWLRQ DQG GLVHDVH LQFLGHQFH VHH - / *DOOXS - ' 6DFKV DQG $ ' 0HOOLQJHU

*HRJUDSK\ DQG (FRQRPLF 'HYHORSPHQW LQ % 3OHVNRYLF DQG - 6WLJOLW] HGV :RUOG %DQN &RQIHUHQFH RQ 'HYHORSPHQW(FRQRPLFV:DVKLQJWRQ'&7KH\SURYLGHPDSVRIGLVHDVHLQFLGHQFHRQO\IRUPDODULD 2WKHUSDUWVRIWKHWURSLFVIDFHVLPLODUSUREOHPVRILQWHQVLYHGLVHDVHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ7KHUHDVRQWKLVGRHVQRWFRPH WKURXJK LQ RXU DQDO\VLV LV SUREDEO\ WKDW ZH KDYH D ODUJH QXPEHU RI REVHUYDWLRQ SRLQWV FRXQWULHV ORFDWHG :HVW

$IULFD 7KH WURSLFDO DUHDV RI $VLD DQG /DWLQ $PHULFD FRYHU IHZHU FRXQWULHV $QG VRPH RI WKHVH FRXQWULHV HJ

%UD]LOKDYHODUJHSRSXODWLRQVOLYLQJLQQRQWURSLFDODUHDV

(16)

SURFHVVHVGRQRWDSSHDUWRFRPSULVHWKHIXOOVWRU\:KHQZHDWWHPSWHGWRH[SODLQVHSDUDWHO\WKH ORQJHYLW\ 5,&(/21* DQG WKH OLWHUDF\HGXFDWLRQ FRPSRQHQWV 5,&((' RI 5,&( WKH :HVW $IULFD GXPP\ :$)5,&$ LV YHU\ VLJQLILFDQW LQ ERWK FDVHV :HVW $IULFDQ ORFDWLRQ DSSHDUVWRUHGXFHWKHHIILFLHQF\ZLWKZKLFKPDWHULDOUHVRXUFHVDUHFRQYHUWHGLQWRERWKORQJHYLW\

DQGOLWHUDF\HGXFDWLRQ

(&21&/86,216$1',03/,&$7,216

7KHUHVXOWVUHSRUWHGLQ5HJUHVVLRQVDQG7DEOH$QQH[)RXUDUHRXUEHVWHVWLPDWHRI WKHGHWHUPLQDQWVRI5,&(1DWLRQDOSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFV\VWHPVFRQYHUWPDWHULDOUHVRXUFHVLQWR KXPDQGHYHORSPHQWPRVWHIIHFWLYHO\ZKHQ

D *RYHUQPHQWLVQRWKLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQPLQHUDOUHVRXUFHVIRUUHYHQXHUHVXOWVLJQLILFDQWDW OHYHO

E *RYHUQPHQWLQVWLWXWLRQVDUHSRRUO\UDWHGIURPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOLQYHVWRUVDQG OHQGHUVUHVXOWVLJQLILFDQWDWOHYHO

F 7KHSRSXODWLRQLVGHQVHUHVXOWVLJQLILFDQWDWOHYHO

G 7KHFRXQWU\LVQRWORFDWHGLQ:HVW$IULFDUHVXOWVLJQLILFDQWDWPRUHWKDQOHYHO 7KHVHUHVXOWVDUHDWOHDVWFRQVLVWHQWZLWKDQGWRVRPHGHJUHHVXSSRUWWKHJHQHUDOSURSRVLWLRQ

WKDWVWDWHVWKDWDUHGHSHQGHQWRQWKHPDVVRIWKHLUFLWL]HQVIRUFULWLFDOUHVRXUFHVDUHPRUHOLNHO\

WUHDWFLWL]HQVUHODWLYHO\ZHOODQGWRJRYHUQZHOO

3UHYLRXV UHVHDUFK KDV GUDZQ RXU DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH SDUWLFXODU FDVHV DQG FDWHJRULHV RI VXFFHVVIXO KXPDQGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJLHVLQSRRUFRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJDYDULDQWVRIPRELOLVLQJVRFLDOLVP

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

2XUUHVXOWVVKRXOGQRWEHUHDGWRLPSO\WKDWEHWWHUJRYHUQDQFHLQWKHVSHFLILFVHQVHLQZKLFKLW LVGHILQHGKHUHLVLQDGGLWLRQWRHFRQRPLFJURZWKWKHEHVWRURQO\ZD\RILPSURYLQJKXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW SHUIRUPDQFH RU DOOHYLDWLQJ SRYHUW\ LQ DQ\ VSHFLILF VLWXDWLRQ 1HLWKHU VKRXOG WKH\

EHUHDGDVLQGLFDWLQJDSULRULW\IRUEHWWHUJRYHUQDQFHRYHUDVVHWRULQFRPHUHGLVWULEXWLRQRUD UDQJH RI RWKHU DSSURDFKHV :H KDYH DW EHVW H[SODLQHG RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ KXPDQ

(17)

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

(18)

$11(;21(+$9(:(0($685('5,&($335235,$7(/<"

7KHUHDUHWKUHHPDLQTXHVWLRQVDERXWZKHWKHU5,&(LVWKHEHVWZD\RIPHDVXULQJRXUXQGHUO\LQJ FRQFHSW WKH UHODWLYH HIILFLHQF\ RI QDWLRQDO SROLWLFDOHFRQRPLF V\VWHPV DW FRQYHUWLQJ PDWHULDO UHVRXUFHVLQWRKXPDQGHYHORSPHQW

• +XPDQGHYHORSPHQWLVDEURDGFRQFHSW+HUHZHDUHPHDVXULQJ LW RQO\ LQ WHUPV RI ORQJHYLW\

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

• 7KH ZHLJKWLQJV DWWDFKHG WR WKH FRPSRQHQWV RI +', D KDOI IRU ORQJHYLW\ D WKLUG IRU DGXOW OLWHUDF\DQGDVL[WKIRUDFRPSRVLWHRISULPDU\VHFRQGDU\DQGWHUWLDU\VFKRROHQUROPHQWVDUH HVVHQWLDOO\DUELWUDU\+RZGRZHNQRZWKDWLVDJRRGPHDVXUHRIWKHLUUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFH"7KH EHVWUHVSRQVHLVSXUHO\SUDJPDWLFZHFRXOGWHVWDOWHUQDWLYHZHLJKWLQJVLQWKHVHDUFKIRU¶EHWWHU·

UHJUHVVLRQUHVXOWVEXWDQ\VXFK¶WUDZO·LVVXVSHFWRQPHWKRGRORJLFDOJURXQGV,WLVPRUHKRQHVW WRVWLFNZLWKWKHVWDQGDUGPHDVXUHV

• :H KDYH PHDVXUHG RXU GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH DV WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ DFWXDO DQG ¶SUHGLFWHG·

KXPDQGHYHORSPHQWSHUIRUPDQFHRYHUDVLQJOHSRLQWRIWLPH7KHH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHV DUHVLQJOHSHULRGPHDVXUHVDYHUDJHOHYHOVRYHUDSHULRGRIFRQVHFXWLYH\HDUVPRVWO\

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

+RZHYHU ZH ZRXOG LQ SULQFLSOH ZLVK RXU LQGH[ RI SXEOLFO\SURYLGHG KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW VHUYLFHV WR LQFOXGH D PHDVXUHRIWKHTXDOLW\RIODZSROLFLQJDQGMXGLFLDOVHUYLFHV

(19)

7KHUHDUHWZRUHDVRQVZK\ZHGRQRWPXFKUHJUHWWKLV7KHILUVWLVSXUHO\SUDJPDWLFSXEOLVKHGGDWD VHULHV RQ OLWHUDF\ DQG ORQJHYLW\ LQ PDQ\ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DUH EDVHG WR D VLJQLILFDQW H[WHQW RQ LQWHUSRODWLRQ LH RQ HVWLPDWHV DVVXPLQJ VWHDG\ JURZWK PDGH RQ WKH EDVLV RI RFFDVLRQDO SRLQW PHDVXUHPHQW'DWDVHULHVWKDWDSSHDUWRKDYHKLVWRULFDOGHSWKPD\EHPLVOHDGLQJDQGEHFDXVHWKH\

OLNH VR PDQ\ SRSXODWLRQUHODWHG QXPEHUV KDYH EHHQ LQFUHDVLQJ VWHDGLO\ IRU GHFDGHV PD\ JHQHUDWH DSSDUHQW FRUUHODWLRQV RYHU WLPH WKDW DUH D SURGXFW RI WKH HVWLPDWLRQ SURFHGXUHV WKHPVHOYHV 7KH VHFRQG UHDVRQ LV PRUH VXEVWDQWLYH :H NQRZ WKDW RYHU WKH VKRUW DQG PHGLXP WHUPV OHYHOV RI HGXFDWLRQDQGKHDOWKLQPRVWGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVDUHRIWHQLQVHQVLWLYHWRFKDQJHVLQLQFRPHOHYHOV 0RUWDOLW\IRUH[DPSOHFRQWLQXHVWRGHFOLQHHYHQZKHQQDWLRQDOLQFRPHVIDOO197KLVLVEHFDXVHWKHUH LV DQ LQVWLWXWLRQDO G\QDPLF WR LPSURYHG KHDOWK DQG HGXFDWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH WKDW LV QRW HDVLO\

GHIOHFWHGLQWKHVKRUWWHUP7RVRPHGHJUHHQXUVHVFRQWLQXHWRLQMHFWDQGVFKRROVWRHGXFDWHHYHQ ZKHQ WKH HFRQRP\ LV LQ FULVLV DQG WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFH GRHV QRW DFFHOHUDWH GUDVWLFDOO\ ZKHQ WKH HFRQRP\ ERRPV ,Q VXP ZKHQ ZH DUH H[DPLQLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW SHUIRUPDQFH DQG DYHUDJH *13 SHU FDSLWD ZH DUH GHDOLQJ ZLWK D ORQJ WHUP UHODWLRQVKLS 7KH EHQHILWVLQWHUPVRIVWDWLVWLFDOO\YDOLGH[SODQDWLRQWRVOLJKWO\GHHSHUKLVWRULFDOGDWDDUHXQOLNHO\WREH YHU\ODUJHLQWKHSUHVHQWFDVH

7KLV ZDV QRW WKH FDVH LQ SDUWV RI WKH IRUPHU 6RYLHW 8QLRQ RYHU WKH V )RU WKH JHQHUDO SRLQW VHH 81'3 +XPDQ'HYHORSPHQW5HSRUWS

(20)

$11(;7:2$1$/7(51$7,9(5(*5(66,2102'(/

7KH SXUSRVH RI RXU DQDO\VLV LV WR H[SODLQ YDULDWLRQV LQ 5,&( 5,&( LV KRZHYHU GHULYHG WKURXJK UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV DQG HVWLPDWLRQ RI UHVLGXDOV IURP WKH YDULDEOH +', )URP D VWDWLVWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYHZHKDYHXVHGDWZRVWHSSURFHGXUHWKDWFDQEHGHVFULEHGDVDKDOISDUWLDOUHJUHVVLRQ²D PL[WXUH RI VLPSOH DQG SDUWLDO UHJUHVVLRQ $Q DOWHUQDWLYH ZD\ RI FRQGXFWLQJ WKH DQDO\VLV LV WR XQGHUWDNH VLQJOH VWHS PXOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV LQ ZKLFK ZH WU\ WR H[SODLQ YDULDWLRQV LQ +', XVLQJRXUPHDVXUHRILQFRPHDVRQHRIWKHH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHV)HUQDQGR/LPRQJLVXJJHVWHGWRXV WKDWWKHPHWKRGZHFKRVHPLJKWELDVWKHUHVXOWVLQFHUWDLQZD\VDQGWKDWWKHVLQJOHVWHSSURFHGXUH ZRXOGEHSUHIHUDEOH$WWKHFRQFHSWXDODQGWKHRUHWLFDOOHYHOZHSUHIHUWKHWZRVWHSSURFHGXUHWKDW LQYROYHVDFOHDUVSHFLILFDWLRQRIZKDWLWLVZHDUHWU\LQJWRH[SODLQLHYDULDWLRQVEHWZHHQFRXQWULHV LQ 5,&( +RZHYHU ZH DOVR UHHVWLPDWHG RXU PRGHO DV D VLQJOH VWHS PXOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQ WR WHVW /LPRQJL·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

DQGFOHDUO\WKHXQGHUO\LQJFRQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUN

(21)

$11(;7+5(('$7$6(7

7DEOH7KH6DPSOH&RXQWULHVDQG9DOXHVRIWKH([SODQDWRU\DQG0DLQ,QGHSHQGHQW 9DULDEOHV

&RXQWU\ 5,&( $,' 0,1(5$/ 48$/32/ 323'(16(

([SODQDWRU\

YDULDEOH

$LGDV

*'3

0LQHUDO H[SRUWVDV

RI*'3

4XDOLW\RI JRYHUQPHQW LQVWLWXWLRQV VFDOH

3RSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\

9LHWQDP

6UL/DQND

3KLOLSSLQHV

-DPDLFD

+RQGXUDV

.HQ\D

3DUDJXD\

-RUGDQ

&RVWD5LFD

,QGLD

7ULQLGDG 7RE

3HUX

'RPLQLFDQ5HS

0DODZL

(O6DOYDGRU

&RQJR%UD]]D

(FXDGRU

=DPELD

7DQ]DQLD

1LJHULD

,QGRQHVLD

%ROLYLD

8UXJXD\

6\ULDQ$UDE5HS

3DQDPD

0DODJDV\

&RORPELD

(WKLRSLD

$UJHQWLQD

=LPEDEZH

0H[LFR

7KDLODQG

*KDQD

&KLOH

&DPHURRQ

9HQH]XHOD

(J\SW$UDE (PLUDWHV

7XQLVLD

%UD]LO

7XUNH\

3DNLVWDQ

+DLWL

*XDWHPDOD

(22)

8JDQGD

3DSXD1*XLQHD

*XLQHD%LVVDX

0DOD\VLD

0RURFFR

0DOL

$QJROD

6LHUUD/HRQH

&RWHG,YRLUH

*DPELD

2PDQ

6HQHJDO

6DXGL$UDELD

%XUNLQD)DVR

1LJHU

*DERQ

*XLQHD

%RWVZDQD

(23)

7DEOH&RXQWU\&ODVVLILFDWLRQIRU/RFDWLRQ$IULFD'XPP\9DULDEOHV

$IULFD 'HSHQG )UDQFRSKRQH

$IULFD :HVW$IULFD

$QJROD

%RWVZDQD

%XUNLQD)DVR

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

&DPHURRQ

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

&RQJR%UD]]DYLOOH

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

&RWHG,YRLUH

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

(J\SW$UDE(P

(WKLRSLD

*DERQ

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

*DPELD

*KDQD

*XLQHD

✓ ✓ ✓

*XLQHD%LVVDX

.HQ\D

0DGDJDVFDU

✓ ✓ ✓

0DODZL

0DOL

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

0RURFFR

✓ ✓

1LJHU

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1LJHULD

6HQHJDO

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

6LHUUD/HRQH

7DQ]DQLD

7XQLVLD

✓ ✓

8JDQGD

=DPELD

=LPEDEZH

(24)

$11(;)2855(*5(66,215(68/76

7DEOH5HJUHVVLRQUHVXOWV²'(3(1'GXPP\

5HJUHVVLRQ

Q

'HSHQGHQW

YDULDEOH α β

$,'

β 0,1(5$/

β 48$/32/

β 323'(16(

β '(3(1'

5 )

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO30 5,&( ( ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO SRLQWV

5,&( ( ( ( ( (

30PLQXV0,1(5$/

,QIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV 5,&( ( ( ( ( ( (

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO

5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO

SRLQWV 5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO 5,&((' ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO

SRLQWV 5,&((' ( ( ( (

6LJQLILFDQFHOHYHOVJLYHQLQSDUHQWKHVHV 'HSHQGHQW9DULDEOHV

5,&(,QFRPH&RQYHUVLRQ(IILFLHQF\IRUFRPSRVLWHLQGH[FRPSULVLQJORQJHYLW\DQGHGXFDWLRQLQGLFHV 5,&(/21*,QFRPH&RQYHUVLRQ(IILFLHQF\IRUORQJHYLW\LQGH[

5,&((',QFRPH&RQYHUVLRQ(IILFLHQF\IRUHGXFDWLRQLQGH[

(25)

7DEOH5HJUHVVLRQUHVXOWV²$)5,&$GXPP\

5HJUHVVLRQ

Q

'HSHQGHQW

YDULDEOH α β

$,'

β 0,1(5$/

β 48$/32/

β 323'(16(

β

$)5,&$

5 )

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO30 5,&( ( ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO SRLQWV

5,&( ( ( ( ( (

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO

5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO

SRLQWV 5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO 5,&((' ( ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO

SRLQWV 5,&((' ( ( ( (

(26)

7DEOH5HJUHVVLRQUHVXOWV)5$)5,&$GXPP\

5HJUHVVLRQ

Q

'HSHQGHQW

YDULDEOH α β

$,'

β 0,1(5$/

β 48$/32/

β 323'(16(

β ')$)

5 )

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO30 5,&( ( ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO

SRLQWV 5,&( ( ( ( ( (

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO 5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO

SRLQWV 5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO 5,&((' ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,',QIOXHQWLDO

SRLQWV 5,&((' ( ( ( (

(27)

7DEOH5HJUHVVLRQUHVXOWV²:$)5,&$GXPP\

5HJUHVVLRQ

Q

'HSHQGHQW

YDULDEOH α β

$,'

β 0,1(5$/

β 48$/32/

β 323'(16(

β :$IULFD

5 )

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO30 5,&( ( ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,' ,QIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV

5,&( ( ( ( ( (

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO

5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

30PLQXV$,'

,QIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV 5,&(

/21*

(

(

(

(

(

(

3UHIHUUHG0RGHO 5,&((' ( ( ( (

30PLQXV$,'

,QIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV 5,&((' ( ( ( (

(28)

7DEOH5HJUHVVLRQUHVXOWV2QH6WHS0RGHOZLWK:$)5,&$GXPP\

5HJUHVVLRQ

1

'HSHQ GHQW YDULDEOH

α β

$,'

β 0,1(5$/

β 48$/32/

β 323'(16(

β :)$5,&$

β /1*13

5 )

2QH6WHS0RGHO

260 +',

(

(

(

(

260PLQXV$,'

,QIOXHQWLDOSRLQWV +',

(

(

(

(

6LJQLILFDQFHOHYHOVJLYHQLQSDUHQWKHVHV

(29)

$11(;),9(6&$77(53/2762)5$:'$7$

)LJXUH6FDWWHU3ORWRI5,&(RQ$,'

3$57, $/5( *5(66,21 3/27

'HSHQGHQW9DULDEOH5,&(

DYHUDJHDLGDVRI*13V

5,&(

(30)

)LJXUH6FDWWHU3ORWRI5,&(RQ0,1(5$/

3$57,$/5(*5(66 ,213/27

'HSHQGHQW9DULDEOH5,&(

0,1(5$/

5,&(

(31)

)LJXUH6FDWWHU3ORWRI5,&(RQ323'(16(

3$57,$/5(*5(66 ,213/27

'HSHQGHQW9DULDEOH5,&(

$YHUDJHQRRISHRSOHSHUVTNPV

5,&(

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

Zh uxq d sxeolf jrrg h{shulphqw zlwk irxu glhuhqw wuhdwphqwv1 Wkh sd|r ixqfwlrq lv fkrvhq vxfk wkdw wkh Qdvk htxloleulxp +QH, dqg wkh froohfwlyh rswlpxp +FR, duh erwk lq wkh lqwhulru

Zh vkrz wkdw fdslwdo dffxpxodwlrq lv frqvwlwxwhg ri vhyhudo skdvhv dqg wkdw wkh hfrqrplf wudqvlwlrq surfhvv ghshqgv rq wkh iudjlolw| ri wkh qdqfldo v|vwhp ghqhg dv wkh ghjuhh ri

Wkh sodq ri wklv sdshu lv dv iroorzv= Lq Vhfwlrq 5 zh vkrz krz wkh RJ\ dssurdfk fdq eh h{whqghg wr frqwuro dq| xqvwdeoh htxloleulxp dqg jhqhudol}h lw iru fkdrwlf v|vwhpv lq U 1

$IWHU FRILULQJ LQ GLIIHUHQW JU SHDN WHPSHUDWXUH WKH FHOOV DUH HY ZDYHOHQJWKLQWHUQDOTXDQWXPHIILFLH ,W FDQ EH VHHQ IURP )LJ WKDW YHORFLW\ RI DQ $O 2 SDVVLYDWHG UHD ,Q WKH

$OWKRXJK QR VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJHV ZHUH REVHUYHG LQ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI VSHFLHV WR WKH WRWDO DEXQGDQFH RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUH SRSXODWLRQ WKH SHDNWRSHDN SORW XQYHLOV FRQWUDVWLQJ

Wkh uvw srlqw vkrzv wkdw wkh glvwulexwlrq ri fdslwdo ehwzhhq upv grhv pdwwhu1 Wr ghprqvwudwh wklv zh frpsduh wkh sulfhv fkdujhg e| wzr xsvwuhdp upv zklfk kdyh glhuhqw dprxqwv ri

7KHPRVWLQWHUHVWLQJWUHQGWRZDWFKLVWKHUHIRUH QRW VR PXFK WKH EUHDNGRZQ LQ 7XUNLVK,VUDHOL UHODWLRQV ,W LV WKH UHHPHUJHQFH RI 7XUNH\ DV D UHJLRQDOSRZHUDORQJVLGHWKHUHYLYDORILWVVWURQJ

2QFH WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG YDULDEOH VHOHFWLRQ LV GRQH DOO WKH GDWD LV VDYHG LQ D 5227 ILOH FRQ WDLQLQJ RQH RU PRUH VR FDOOHG WUHHV ZLWK WKH YDULDEOHV VDYHG IRU D VSHFLILF SDUWLFOH