• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

!740.90/:,

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "!740.90/:,"

Copied!
10
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

Anali za istrske in mediteranske {tudije Annali di Studi istriani e mediterranei Annals for Istrain and Mediterranean Studies

VHULHVKLVWRULDQDWXUDOLV Supplement

3URMHFW0HGX]D

6ORYHQLDQ5HVHDUFK$JHQF\

0LQLVWU\RI6FLHQFH7HFKQRORJ\DQG3URGXFWLYH,QQRYDWLRQ0,1&\7$UJHQWLQD 0LQLVWU\RI6FLHQFH(GXFDWLRQDQG6SRUWVRIWKH5HSXEOLFRI&URDWLD

861DWLRQDO6FLHQFH)RXQGDWLRQ

862IILFHRI1DYDO5HVHDUFK

(2)

$11$/(6©6HUKLVWQDW©©©©6XSSOHPHQW

8'. /HWQLN.RSHUÊWHYLOND ,661;

96(%,1$,1',&(*(1(5$/(&217(176

-RKQ+&267(//26HDQ3&2/,1 :LOOLDP0*5$+$0-RKQ2'$%,5,

$GDP%(129,Û'DYRU/8Ý,Û 9ODGLPLU212)5,0LUD02529,Û

$OHQND0$/(-9DOHQWLQD785.

9HVQD)/$1'(53875/(+HUPHV0,$1=$1

*XVWDYR$/9$5(=&2/20%2 (0DUFHOR$&+$

3URMHFW0HGX]DLQWKHFRQWH[W

RILWVKLVWRULFDOWLPH 3URMHNW0HGX]DYNRQWHNVWX]JRGRYLQVNHJDUD]YRMD -XDQ&DUORV02/,1(52(PPDQXHOOH%8(&+(5 'DYRU/8Ý,Û$OHQND0$/(-

0DULMDQD0,/26/$9,Û

&OLPDWHDQG0HGLWHUUDQHDQMHOO\ILVKDVVHVVLQJ WKHHIIHFWRIWHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHVRQMHOO\ILVK

RXWEUHDNG\QDPLFV 3RGQHEMHLQVUHGR]HPVNHPHGX]HRFHQDYSOLYD

WHPSHUDWXUQLKUHÊLPRYQDGLQDPLNRPDVRYQHJD SRMDYOMDQMDPHGX]

:LOOLDP0*5$+$0-RKQ+&267(//2 6HDQ3&2/,1$OHQND0$/(-'DYRU/8Ý,Û 9ODGLPLU212)5, $GDP%(129,Û

,QVLWXPDQLSXODWLRQRIYHUWLFDOO\PLJUDWLQJ JHODWLQRXV]RRSODQNWRQXVLQJQLJKWWLPHEOXH

ZDWHU6&8%$LQWKHVRXWKFHQWUDO$GULDWLF6HD 8SRUDEDQRßQLKSRWRSRYYRGSUWLKYRGDK

MXÊQHJD-DGUDQD]DLQVLWXSRVNXVH]YHUWLNDOQR PLJULUDMRßLPÊHODWLQR]QLPSODQNWRQRP 'DYRU/8Ý,Û$GDP%(129,Û ,YRQD212)5,0LUQD%$7,67,Û

%DUEDUD*$1*$,0DULMDQD0,/26/$9,Û 9ODGLPLU212)25,-DNLFD1-,5(,JRU

%5$8729,Û'XEUDYND%2-$1,Û9$5(=,Û 0LUD02529,Û 7MDÇD.2*29Æ(.

3ODQNWRQLFFQLGDULDQVLQWKHRSHQVRXWKHUQ

$GULDWLF6HDDFRPSDULVRQRIKLVWRULFDO

DQGUHFHQWGDWD 3ODQNWRQVNLRÊLJDONDUMLYRGSUWLKYRGDKMXÊQHJD

-DGUDQVNHJDPRUMDSULPHUMDYDSRGDWNRY L]SUHWHNOLKLQQRYHMÈLKUD]LVNDY

:LOOLDP0*5$+$0/XFLDQR&+,$9(5$12 ,VDEHOOD'¡$0%5$+HUPHV0,$1=$1

*XVWDYR$/9$5(=&2/20%2 (0DUFHOOR$&+$$OHQND0$/(- -RKQ+&267(//29ODGLPLU212)5, $GDP%(129,Û

)LVKDQGMHOO\ILVKXVLQJWKHLVRODWHGPDULQH

£ODNHV¤RI0OMHW,VODQG&URDWLDWRH[SORUHODUJHU PDULQHHFRV\VWHPFRPSOH[LWLHVDQGHFRV\VWHP

EDVHGPDQDJHPHQWDSSURDFKHV 5LEHLQPHGX]HXSRUDEDL]ROLUDQLKPRUVNLK

¡MH]HU¢QDRWRNX0OMHWX+UYDÈND SULUD]LVNRYDQMXNRPSOHNVQRVWLYHßMHJD PRUVNHJDHNRVLVWHPDLQSULVWRSRY HNRVLVWHPVNHJDXSUDYOMDQMD

$OHQND0$/(-9DOHQWLQD785.

7MDÇD.2*29Æ(.7LKRPLU0$.29(&

9ODGLPLU212)5,/XFLDQR&+,$9(5$12 7LQNDUD7,17$9HVQD)/$1'(53875/(

'DYRU/8Ý,Û

$XUHOLDVS6F\SKR]RDSRSXODWLRQLQWKH 0OMHW/DNHWKHVRXWKHUQ$GULDWLFWURSKLF

LQWHUDFWLRQVDQGOLQNWRPLFURELDOIRRGZHE 3RSXODFLMDYUVWH$XUHOLDVS6F\SKR]RD

Y0OMHWVNHPMH]HUXMXÊQR-DGUDQVNRPRUMH WURILßQHLQWHUDNFLMHLQSRYH]DYD]PLNUREQLP SUHKUDPEHQLPVSOHWRP

,VDEHOOD'¡$0%5$ :LOOLDP0*5$+$0 (DUO\GHYHORSPHQWDOVHTXHQFHRIDQDQWKR]RDQ SDUDVLWHRIWKHMHOO\ILVK$XUHOLDVS

LQDQLVRODWHGPDULQHODNH0OMHW&URDWLD

=JRGQMDUD]YRMQDVHNYHQFDNRUDOQMDÈNHJD SDUD]LWDQDPHGX]LYUVWH$XUHOLDVS YL]ROLUDQHPPRUVNHPMH]HUX0OMHW+UYDÈND

$GDP%(129,Û(0DUFHOR$&+$

$OHQND0$/(-*XVWDYR$/9$5(=&2/20%2 ÈHOMNR%$Ý( +HUPHV0,$1=$1

$FRXVWLFREVHUYDWLRQVRIMHOO\ILVKGLVWULEXWLRQ

LQ0DOR/DNH0OMHW,V&URDWLD

$NXVWLßQDRSD]RYDQMDGLVWULEXFLMHPHGX]

Y0DOHPMH]HUXRWRN0OMHW+UYDÈND

(3)

5HYLHZDUWLFOH 8'&

5HFHLYHG

&/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&7 2)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+287%5($.'<1$0,&6

-XDQ&DUORV02/,1(52

/HLEQL],QVWLWXWHRI0DULQH6FLHQFHV,)0*(20$5)%0DULQH(FRORJ\([SHULPHQWDO(FRORJ\

'.LHO'€VWHUQEURRNHU:HJ*HUPDQ\

(PDLOMPROLQHUR#LIPJHRPDUGH (PPDQXHOOH%8(&+(5

=RRORJ\'HSDUWPHQW8QLYHUVLW\RIWKH:HVWHUQ&DSH%HOOYLOOH3ULYDWH%DJ;6RXWK$IULFD 'DYRU/8Þ,Ü

8QLYHUVLW\RI'XEURYQLN,QVWLWXWHIRU0DULQHDQG&RDVWDO5HVHDUFK+5'XEURYQLN'DPMDQD-XGH&URDWLD

$OHQND0$/(-

0DULQH%LRORJ\6WDWLRQ1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI%LRORJ\3LUDQ)RUQDáH6ORYHQLD 0DULMDQD0,/26/$9,Ü

8QLYHUVLW\RI'XEURYQLN,QVWLWXWHIRU0DULQHDQG&RDVWDO5HVHDUFK+5'XEURYQLN'DPMDQD-XGH&URDWLD

$%675$&7

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

.H\ZRUGVFOLPDWHFKDQJH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ6HDWHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHJHODWLQRXVFDUQLYRURXV]RRSODQNWRQRXWEUHDNV

&/,0$(0('86(0(',7(55$1((9$/87$=,21('(*/,())(77,'(,5(*,0, ',7(03(5$785$68//$',1$0,&$',(63/26,21('(//(0('86(

6,17(6,

*OLDXWRULKDQQRDQDOL]]DWRXQDVHULHGLDQQLGLVHJQDOD]LRQLGL]RRSODQFWRQJHODWLQRVRFDUQLYRURDOILQHGL DFFHUWDUHO¢HIIHWWRGLGLIIHUHQWLUHJLPLGLWHPSHUDWXUDVXOO¢DEERQGDQ]D/DUHOD]LRQHIUDODWHPSHUDWXUDHODJUDQGH]]D GHOODSRSROD]LRQHGHLFDUQLYRULJHODWLQRVLoGLVFRQWLQXDHQRQoVWDWDULVFRQWUDWDDOFXQDVLJQLILFDWLYLWiVWDWLVWLFDSHU UHJLPLGLEDVVDWHPSHUDWXUD,QRJQLFDVRHVSRVL]LRQLSUROXQJDWHDGDOWHWHPSHUDWXUHKDQQRDOWHUDWRODGLQDPLFDGL HVSORVLRQHGHOODSRSROD]LRQH,QSDUWLFRODUHDOWHWHPSHUDWXUHHGXQDIRUWHVWUDWLILFD]LRQHGHOODFRORQQDG¢DFTXDVRQR VWDWHVLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWHUHOD]LRQDWHDOORVYLOXSSRPDVVLFFLRGHOOHSRSROD]LRQLGHLFDUQLYRULJHODWLQRVL4XHVWLULVXOWDWL VRWWROLQHDQR O¢LPSRUWDQ]D GHOOR ]RRSODQFWRQ JHODWLQRVR FDUQLYRUR TXDOH LQGLFDWRUH HFRORJLFR GL FDPELDPHQWL QHOO¢HFRVLVWHPDGHOPDUH0HGLWHUUDQHR

3DUROHFKLDYHFDPELDPHQWLFOLPDWLFLPDUH0HGLWHUUDQHRUHJLPHGLWHPSHUDWXUD]RRSODQFWRQJHODWLQRVRFDUQLYRUR HVSORVLRQL

(4)

-XDQ&DUORVet al.: 02/,1(52 &/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&72)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+,

,1752'8&7,21

6\QHUJLHVEHWZHHQHFRV\VWHPGHJUDGDWLRQRYHUH[

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

*UDKDPHWDO;LDQJHWDO7KH\LPSDFW WRXULVWVWKURXJKEHDFKFORVXUHV5LFKDUGVRQHWDO DQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQDQGWKHLUFRQWDFWPD\FDXVHDO OHUJLFDQGWR[LFUHDFWLRQVLQEDWKHUV%XUQHWW7KH UHSRUWHGUHFXUUHQWPDVVLYHSUROLIHUDWLRQVRIJHODWLQRXV SODQNWRQGXULQJWKHODVWGHFDGHPD\DOWHUWKHHQWLUHHFR V\VWHPG\QDPLFV+D\

7KHUHLVDOVRJURZLQJHYLGHQFHWKDWLQWHUDQQXDODQG ORQJWHUPFOLPDWHFKDQJHVDIIHFWSODQNWRQFRPPXQLWLHV DQGPDULQHHFRV\VWHP+D\VHWDO7KH0HGLWHU UDQHDQ EDVLQ LV DIIHFWHG E\ ERWK VXEWURSLFDO DQG 1RUWK

$WODQWLF FOLPDWHV 5HGGDZD\ %LJJ DQG LW UH IOHFWV VHFXODU WUHQGV RI 1RUWKHUQ +HPLVSKHUH WHPSHUD WXUH %HWKRX[HW DO 4XDQWLI\LQJ WKH LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH UHJLPH FKDQJHV RQ PDULQH SRSXODWLRQV LV QHHGHG WR LPSOHPHQW VRXQG HFRV\VWHP PDQDJHPHQW SROLFLHV

+HUH ZH HYDOXDWH D \HDU UHFRUG RI JHODWLQRXV ]RRSODQNWRQ DEXQGDQFH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WHPSHUDWXUH DQG GHPRQVWUDWHWKDWKLJKZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHDQGVL]HRIJH ODWLQRXVFDUQLYRUHSRSXODWLRQVDUHUHODWHG

0(7+2'6

3K\VLFDOGDWD$YHUDJHGPRQWKO\GDWDRIVHDVXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH667IURP‚WR‚1DQGIURP‚WR‚(

ZHUH XVHG DV D SUR[\ RI FOLPDWH IRUFLQJ 7KH GDWDVHW XVHG ZDV IURP WKH 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU (QYLURQPHQWDO 3UHGLFWLRQ 1DWLRQDO &HQWHU IRU $WPRVSKHULF 5HVHDUFK 1&(3Ÿ1&$5 JULGGHG UHDQDO\VLV GXULQJ WKH SHULRG

Ÿ .DOQD\HW DO ,Q DGGLWLRQ ZHHNO\

ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUH UHFRUGV LQ WKH QRUWKHUQ /LJXULDQ 6HD DWDQGPGHSWKZHUHXVHGWRLQYHVWLJDWH WKHORQJWHUPYDULDELOLW\RIZDWHUFROXPQVWUDWLILFDWLRQ

%LRORJLFDOGDWD'DWDDQDO\]HGFRYHUWKH\HDUV WR7KURXJKRXWWKLVSHULRGSODQNWRQZDVVDPSOHG

DW ZHHNO\ LQWHUYDOV IURP D GHSWK RI P 3RLQW %

‚¤1‚¤ ( LQ WKH /LJXULDQ 6HD QRUWKZHVW 0HGL WHUUDQHDQ'HWDLOVRIVDPSOLQJORFDOLW\DUHJLYHQLQ0R OLQHURHWDO6DPSOLQJZDVSHUIRUPHGE\PHDQV RI YHUWLFDO KDXOV RI D ]RRSODQNWRQ QHW -XGD\%RJRURY ‘P PHVK VL]H IURP ERWWRP WR VXUIDFH 7KH JHODWL QRXV FDUQLYRUHV DQDO\]HG ZHUH WKH KRORSODQNWRQLF K\

GURPHGXVDH/LULRSH WHWUDSK\OOD6ROPXQGHOOD ELWHQWDFX ODWDDQG5KRSDORQHPDYHODWXPDQGWKHVLSKRQRSKRUHV

$E\ORSVLVWHWUDJRQDDQG&KHORSK\HV DSSHQGLFXODWD $OO WKHVH VSHFLHV DUH FRPPRQ LQKDELWDQWV RI WKH :HVWHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQEDVLQ7KHPHVKVL]HRIWKHQHWSUHYHQWHG DVVHVVPHQWVRILQGLYLGXDOVVPDOOHUWKDQXPEXWWKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI VDPSOHV FROOHFWHG ZDV FRQVLGHUDEOH VDPSOHVDQGFRQVLVWHQF\RIVDPSOLQJDQGTXDQ WLILFDWLRQ SURWRFROV SURGXFHG D ELRORJLFDO GDWD VHW WKDW ZHEHOLHYHWREHFRPSDUDEOHWKURXJKWLPH

'DWDDQDO\VLV7LPHVHULHVZHUHORJWUDQVIRUPHGDQG DQDO\VHGLQVWDQGDUGL]HGDQGQRQGLPHQVLRQDOIRUPLH ]HUR PHDQ DQG XQLW YDULDWLRQ 6WDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV ZDV SHUIRUPHGXVLQJ0DWODE6RIWZDUH

7KHLQWHUDQQXDOYDULDELOLW\RIVHDVRQDO667JUDGLHQW EHWZHHQZLQWHU-)0DQGVXPPHU-$6ZDVFDOFXODWHG DQG XVHG DVD SUR[\ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO YDULDELOLW\ /RQJ WHUP UHFRUGV RI 667 LGHQWLI\ DOWHUDWLRQV LQ SHODJLF HFR V\VWHPV SDUWLFXODUO\ ZLWK FKDQJHV LQ SK\WRSODQNWRQ FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH 5LFKDUGVRQ 6FKRHPDQ :H IXUWKHU FDOFXODWH WKH WKHUPDO VWUDWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH ZDWHUFROXPQDVWKHDYHUDJHWHPSHUDWXUHGLIIHUHQFHP RIWKHŸPGHSWKOD\HU

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

7KH HIIHFW VL]H RI WHPSHUDWXUH WUHDWPHQW RQ WKH JH ODWLQRXVFDUQLYRUHSRSXODWLRQZDVLQYHVWLJDWHGIRU DQGIRUHDFKWHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHLGHQWLILHG3HUVRQ SURGXFWPRPHQWFRUUHODWLRQVDVZHOODVWKHSUREDELOLW\

GHQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRIFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVDIWHUERRW VWUDSUHVDPSOLQJZHUHFRPSXWHG7KHDQDO\VLVLQYROYHG D UDQGRP SDLUZLVH VDPSOLQJ ZLWK UHSODFHPHQW ZKHUH HDFKWLPHVHULHVZDVUHVDPSOHGWLPHV7KHQXP EHU RI HOHPHQWV LQ HDFK ERRWVWUDS VDPSOH HTXDOV WKH QXPEHU RI HOHPHQWV LQ WKH RULJLQDO GDWD VHW 7KH SURE DELOLW\GHQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJFRUUHOD WLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV ZDV FRPSXWHG XVLQJ QRQSDUDPHWULF .HUQHOVPRRWKLQJ

(5)

-XDQ&DUORVet al.: 02/,1(52 &/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&72)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+,

)LJ/RQJWHUPYDULDELOLW\RIWKHDEXQGDQFHRIKRORSODQNWRQLFJHODWLQRXVFDUQLYRUHVSHFLHV$EXQGDQFHVDUHH[

SUHVVHGDVORJ[

6O'ROJRURàQDYDULDELOQRVWÉWHYLOàQRVWLKRORSODQNWRQVNLKËHODWLQR]QLKPHVRMHGLKYUVWÈWHYLOàQRVWMHL]UDËHQDNRW ORJ[

7KHG\QDPLFVRIJHODWLQRXVFDUQLYRUHRXWEUHDNVZDV DVVHVVHGE\PHDQVRISHDNWRSHDNSORWV5LQDOGLHWDO 7KHPHWKRGFRQVLVWVLQ H[WUDFWLQJ IURP WKH WLPH VHULHV\VLJQLILFDQWSHDNVLHRXWEUHDNVVD\\LL QDQGSORWWKHPRQHDJDLQVWWKHSUHYLRXVRQH WKXVREWDLQLQJDVHWRISRLQWV\L\L7KHSRLQWVLQWKH SHDNWRSHDNSORW333OLHRQDFORVHGUHJXODUFXUYHWKH VOLFHRIDWRUXVZKHQWKHG\QDPLFVRIWKHSKHQRPHQRQ LVTXDVLSHULRGLFDQGOLHURXJKO\RQDFXUYHZKHQWKHDW WUDFWRULVDORZGLPHQVLRQDOVWUDQJHDWWUDFWRU

5(68/76$1'',6&866,21

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

7KHLQWHUDQQXDOYDULDELOLW\RIWKHWHPSHUDWXUHGLIIHU HQFH EHWZHHQ ZLQWHU -)0 DQG VXPPHU -$6 LQ WKH QRUWKHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ RYHU WKH VHFRQG KDOI RI WKH WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\LVVKRZQLQILJXUH D 9DOXHV DUH H[

SUHVVHGDVVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVIURPWKHORQJWHUPPHDQ RI WKH WLPH VHULHV 7KH YDULDELOLW\ RI WKH VLJQDO UHYHDOV WZR PDMRU UHJLPHV RI WHPSHUDWXUH WKDW ZHUH FKDUDFWHU L]HG E\ ORZHU YDOXHV WKDQ WKH ORQJWHUP PHDQ IURP WRWKHODWHVDQGKLJKHURQHV DIWHU WKH HDUO\

V $ UHPDUNDEO\ VLPLODU SDWWHUQ LV REVHUYHG LQ WKH ZDWHUFROXPQVWUDWLILFDWLRQGXULQJWKH\HDUVŸ

)LJ E ZKLFK DOVR VKRZ JHQHUDOO\ ORZ YDOXHV EHIRUH WKH HDUO\ V DQG KLJKHU YDOXHV DIWHUZDUGV 7KH OLQN EHWZHHQ ODUJH DQG ORFDOVFDOH WHPSHUDWXUH YDULDELOLW\

ZDV VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW DV VKRZQ E\ WKH 3HDUVRQ¤V FRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWDQGWKHHIIHFWLYHSUREDELOLW\DIWHU FRUUHFWLRQ IRU WHPSRUDO DXWRFRUUHODWLRQ U S 7KH FXPXODWLYH VXP RI ]VFRUHV GHSLFWHG WKH PDLQ WHPSHUDWXUHV UHJLPHV WKDW FKDUDFWHUL]HG WKH SH ODJLF HQYLURQPHQW IRU JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUHV 6XFK UH JLPHVZHUHXVHGDIWHUZDUGVDVWUHDWPHQWHIIHFW

7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH SRSXOD WLRQ VL]H RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUHV DQG WHPSHUDWXUH LV VKRZQ LQ ILJXUH D &RQVLGHULQJ WKH ZKROH SHULRG WKH 3HDUVRQ¤VFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWDQGWKHHIIHFWLYH SURE DELOLW\DIWHUFRUUHFWLRQIRUWHPSRUDODXWRFRUUHODWLRQZHUH U DQGSUHVSHFWLYHO\DOWKRXJKWKHSURE DELOLW\ GHQVLW\HVWLPDWLRQ RI FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV RE WDLQHGDIWHUERRWVWUDSUHVDPSOLQJWLPHVUHYHDOHGD KLJK YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH OLQN PHDQ VWG +RZHYHUDQDO\VLVRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSGXULQJWKHUHJLPH RIORZWHPSHUDWXUHVGRHVQRWSURYLGHVWDWLVWLFDOVXSSRUW

(6)

-XDQ&DUORVet al.: 02/,1(52 &/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&72)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+,

)LJD,QWHUDQQXDOYDULDELOLW\RIWKHVHDVRQDOVHDVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUH667JUDGLHQWEHWZHHQZLQWHU-)0DQG VXPPHU-$67KHWLPHVHULHVZDVREWDLQHGIURPPHDQGRWWHGOLQHDQGPD[LPXPFRQWLQXRXVOLQHVHDVRQDOYDO XHVE7LPHVHULHVRI667JUDGLHQWPHDQYDOXHVDQGWKHUPDOVWUDWLILFDWLRQRIWKHZDWHUFROXPQžPJUH\

OLQH7KHFXPXODWLYH]VFRUHVGLDJUDPRIWKHWLPHVHULHVLQVHWLOOXVWUDWHVWKHLQIOH[LRQSRLQWWKDWVHSDUDWHVWKHWZR WHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHVLQWKHQRUWKHUQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQ

6OD0HGOHWQDYDULDELOQRVWJUDGLHQWDVH]RQVNHSRYUÉLQVNHWHPSHUDWXUHPRUMD667PHG]LPR-)0LQSROHWMHP -$6ßDVRYQLUD]SRUHGMHELOQDUHMHQQDSRGODJLVUHGQMLKàUWNDQDàUWDLQQDMYLÉMLKSROQDàUWDVH]RQVNLKYUHG QRVWLEßDVRYQLUD]SRUHG667JUDGLHQWDVUHGQMDYUHGQRVWLQWHUPDOQHVWUDWLILNDFLMHYRGQHJDVWROSDžPVLYD àUWD.XPXODWLYQLGLDJUDPàDVRYQHJDUD]SRUHGDYORËHQLJUDISULND]XMHSUHYRMNLORàXMHGYDWHPSHUDWXUQDUHËLPD YVHYHUQHP6UHGR]HPOMX

(7)

-XDQ&DUORVet al.: 02/,1(52 &/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&72)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+,

7DE5HODWLYHDEXQGDQFHRIJHODWLQRXVFDUQLYRUHVSH FLHVLQWKHWKHUPDOUHJLPHVLQYHVWLJDWHG7KHVWUXFWXUH OHGE\WKHVSHFLHVFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHWRWDODEXQGDQFH LVVLPLODULQWKHWZRSHULRGVZLWK/WHWUDSK\OODDQG5 YHODWXPDVWKHGRPLQDQWVSHFLHVLQWKHWZRSHULRGV 7DE 5HODWLYQD ÉWHYLOàQRVW ËHODWLQR]QLK PHVRMHGLK YUVWYREUDYQDYDQLKWHPSHUDWXUQLKUHËLPLK6WUXNWXUDV SULVSHYNRPYUVWHNSROQLÉWHYLOàQRVWLMHSRGREQDYREHK REGREMLK ] YUVWDPD/ WHWUDSK\OOD LQ5 YHODWXP NRW GRPLQDQWQLPDYUVWDPDYREHKREGREMLK

3HULRG

œ

3HULRG

œ

5KRSDORQHPDYHODWXP

/LULRSHWHWUDSK\OOD

6ROPXQGHOODELWHQWDFXODWD

&KHORSK\HVDSSHQGLFXODWD

$E\ORSVLVWHWUDJRQD

WKDW YDULDWLRQV LQ SRSXODWLRQ VL]H RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQL YRUHV DUH UHODWHG WR WHPSHUDWXUH DV LOOXVWUDWHG E\ WKH SUREDELOLW\GHQVLW\HVWLPDWLRQRIFRUUHODWLRQVFRHIILFLHQWV )LJDPHDQ VWG ,QFRQWUDVWGXULQJWKH KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH UHJLPH WKH OLQN ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ HQ KDQFHG DQG WKH SRSXODWLRQ VL]H FKDQJHV ZHUH FORVHO\

FRXSOHGWRWHPSHUDWXUHYDULDWLRQV)LJDPHDQ VWG 7KHVHUHVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDWWKHUHODWLRQVKLSRI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUHV ZLWK WHPSHUDWXUHHYROYHV DFFRUG LQJ WR WKH VWUHQJWK RI FOLPDWH VLJQDO ,W LV ZRUWK QRWLQJ WKDWWKHVWUXFWXUHOHGE\WKHVSHFLHVFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKH WRWDODEXQGDQFHLVVLPLODULQWKHWZRSHULRGVZLWK/WHW UDSK\OODDQG5YHODWXPDVWKHGRPLQDQWVSHFLHVLQWKH WZRSHULRGV7DE

)LJ D 3UREDELOLW\ GHQVLW\ HVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH FRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVEHWZHHQWHPSHUDWXUHDQG WKH SRSXODWLRQ VL]H RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUHV 7KH GHQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQZDVREWDLQHGE\ERRWVWUDSUH VDPSOLQJWLPHVLQWKHZKROHVWXG\SHULRG GRWWHGOLQHDQGLQWKHWZRWHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHV FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKH\HDUVžORZWHP SHUDWXUH RSHQ V\PEROV DQG ž KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH ILOOHG V\PEROV E /RQJ WHUP G\

QDPLFV RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUHV RXWEUHDNV LOOXV WUDWHGE\WKHSHDNWRSHDNSORW;L;LZKHUH;L

GHQRWHVDVLJQLILFDQWSHDNRIDEXQGDQFHHJRXW EUHDNDWWLPHWDQG;LWKHQH[WVLJQLILFDQWSHDN DW WLPH W 7KH GDUN FLUFOH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH RXW EUHDN G\QDPLFV XQGHU WKH ORZ WHPSHUDWXUH UH JLPH ZKHUHDV WKH HOOLSVRLG SRLQWV RXW WKH QHZ RXWEUHDN G\QDPLFV XQGHU WKH KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH UHJLPH

6OD2FHQDJRVWRWHYHUMHWQRVWLNRUHODFLMVNHJD NRHILFLHQWDPHGWHPSHUDWXURLQYHOLNRVWMRSRSXOD FLMH ËHODWLQR]QLK PHVRMHGRY 3RGDWNL ]D GLVWULEX FLMR JRVWRWH VR ELOL SULGREOMHQL ] ERRWVWUDS Y]RUàHQMHP ] YUDàDQMHP NUDW WHNRP FH ORWQH UD]LVNDYH àUWNDQD àUWD LQ Y GYHK WHP SHUDWXUQLKUHËLPLKYOHWLKžQL]NDWHP SHUDWXUD NYDGUDWL LQ ž YLVRND WHP SHUDWXUH SROQL NURJFL E 'ROJRURàQD GLQDPLND PDVRYQHJD SRMDYOMDQMD ËHODWLQR]QLK PHVRMHGRY SULND]DQD ] JUDIRP YUKRY ;L ;L NMHU ;L

R]QDàXMHL]UD]LW YUKÉWHYLOàQRVWL QSU L]EUXK PD VRYQHJD SRMDYOMDQMD RE àDVX W LQ ;L QDVOHGQML L]UD]LW YUK RE àDVX W 7HPQHMÉL NURJ SULND]XMH GLQDPLNR PDVRYQHJD SRMDYOMDQMD Y QL]NHP WHP SHUDWXUQHP UHËLPX PHGWHP NR HOLSVD SULNDËH QRYR GLQDPLNR PDVRYQHJD SRMDYOMDQMD Y YLVRNHP WHPSHUDWXUQHPUHËLPX

(8)

-XDQ&DUORVet al.: 02/,1(52 &/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&72)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+,

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

%HVLGH WKH GLUHFW HIIHFW WKDW WHPSHUDWXUH FKDQJHV PD\KDYHRQWKHSRSXODWLRQG\QDPLFVRIJHODWLQRXVFDU QLYRUHVWKHREVHUYHGFKDQJHVDUHOLNHO\UHODWHGWRFRQ FRPLWDQW HIIHFWV RI FOLPDWHIRUFLQJ RQ WKH SHODJLF HQYL URQPHQW RI WKH ZHVWHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ 0HQDUGHW DO )RULQVWDQFH*RPH] *RUVN\LGHQWLILHG PRGLILFDWLRQV LQ WKH ZHVWHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ UHODWHG WR KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG KLJK DWPRVSKHULF SUHVVXUH WKDW DIIHFWHG FKDQJHV DW WKH ERWWRP RI WKH IRRG ZHE LH D IODJHOODWHGRPLQDQFHRQWKHPLFURSODQNWRQFRPPXQLW\

7KHKLJKWHPSHUDWXUHUHJLPHZDVUHODWHGWRSHUVLVWHQWO\

KLJK YDOXHV RI WKH 1RUWK $WODQWLF 2VFLOODWLRQ 1$2 SDUWLFXODUO\WRWKHORQJHVWDQGKLJKHUSRVLWLYHSKDVHRYHU WKH WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ 7KH JHQHUDOO\ ZDUP DQG VWDEOH ZDWHU FROXPQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV DIWHU WKH V KDV SURYLGHG VXLWDEOH HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGL WLRQV IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUH RXW

EUHDNV0ROLQHURHWDODQGVXEVWDQWLDOO\DOWHUHG WKHLURXWEUHDNG\QDPLFV7KLVLVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKSUH YLRXVLQYHVWLJDWLRQVLQWKHVDPHDUHDWKDWIRXQGDSRVL WLYHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHVXUYLYDORIJHODWLQRXVFDU QLYRUH ODUYDH DQG VWUDWLILHG ZDWHU *R\HW DO

%XHFKHU 7KHVH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH QRUWKHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ SHODJLF SRSXODWLRQV DUH SRWHQWLDOO\ YXO QHUDEOH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG ORQJ WHUP YDULDWLRQV RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUH SRSXODWLRQV DUH LQGLFDWLYH RI HFR V\VWHPVWDWHPRGLILFDWLRQV

,Q WKH JOREDO FKDQJH FRQWH[W FOLPDWH SURMHFWLRQV VXJJHVWDGRPLQDQFHRIWKHSRVLWLYHSKDVHVRIWKH1$2 ,3&& 7KLV PHDQV WKDW JHQHUDOO\ KLJK DWPRV SKHULFSUHVVXUHKLJKWHPSHUDWXUHV DQG ORZ ZLQG VWUHVV DUHH[SHFWHGWRGRPLQDWHDWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQVLQWKH QRUWKHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ ZKLFK LQ WXUQ SRLQW WRZDUGV HQKDQFHPHQW RI ZDWHU FROXPQ VWUDWLILFDWLRQ $V VKRZQ E\ RXU DQDO\VLV WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV VHHP WR DOWHU WKH G\

QDPLFV RI JHODWLQRXV FDUQLYRUH RXWEUHDNV ZKLFK PD\

MHRSDUGL]HWKHSHODJLFGLYHUVLW\DQGHFRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQ DQGUHVLOLHQFH

$&.12:/('*0(176

:H DFNQRZOHGJH WKH VWDII RI WKH /DERUDWRU\ RI 2FHDQRJUDSK\ RI 9LOOHIUDQFKH 6HUJH 'DOORW ZKRVH HI IRUWVPDGHWKLVORQJWHUPVXUYH\SRVVLEOH:HDUHJUDWH IXOWRDQDQRQ\PRXVUHIHUHHIRUFRPPHQWVRQWKHPDQX VFULSW

(9)

-XDQ&DUORVet al.: 02/,1(52 &/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&72)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+,

32'1(%-(,165('2=(06.(0('8=(2&(1$93/,9$7(03(5$7851,+5(Ë,029 1$',1$0,.20$6291(*$32-$9/-$1-$0('8=

-XDQ&DUORV02/,1(52

/HLEQL],QVWLWXWHRI0DULQH6FLHQFHV,)0*(20$5)%0DULQH(FRORJ\([SHULPHQWDO(FRORJ\

'.LHO'€VWHUQEURRNHU:HJ*HUPDQ\

(PDLOMPROLQHUR#LIPJHRPDUGH (PPDQXHOOH%8(&+(5

=RRORJ\'HSDUWPHQW8QLYHUVLW\RIWKH:HVWHUQ&DSH%HOOYLOOH3ULYDWH%DJ;6RXWK$IULFD 'DYRU/8Þ,Ü

8QLYHUVLW\RI'XEURYQLN,QVWLWXWHIRU0DULQHDQG&RDVWDO5HVHDUFK+5'XEURYQLN'DPMDQD-XGH&URDWLD

$OHQND0$/(-

0DULQH%LRORJ\6WDWLRQ1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI%LRORJ\3LUDQ)RUQDáH6ORYHQLD 0DULMDQD0,/26/$9,Ü

8QLYHUVLW\RI'XEURYQLN,QVWLWXWHIRU0DULQHDQG&RDVWDO5HVHDUFK+5'XEURYQLN'DPMDQD-XGH&URDWLD

329=(7(.

,]YHGHQDMHELODDQDOL]DOHWQHJDßDVRYQHJDUD]SRUHGDSRMDYOMDQMDÊHODWLQR]QHJDPHVRMHGHJD]RRSODQNWRQD]

QDPHQRP RFHQH XßLQND UD]OLßQLK WHPSHUDWXUQLK UHÊLPRY QD ÈWHYLOßQRVW 5D]PHUMH PHG WHPSHUDWXUR LQ YHOLNRVWMR SRSXODFLMHÊHODWLQR]QLK PHVRMHGRY MH GLVNRQWLQXLUDQR]D QL]NH WHPSHUDWXUQH UHÊLPH SD QL XJRWRYOMHQD VWDWLVWLßQD SRYH]DYD -H SD GLQDPLNR PDVRYQHJD SRMDYOMDQMD SRSXODFLMH VSUHPHQLOR SRGDOMÈDQR L]SRVWDYOMDQMH YLVRNLP WHP SHUDWXUDPÇHSRVHEHMYLVRNHWHPSHUDWXUHLQPRßQDVWUDWLILNDFLMDYRGQHJDVWROSD VR L]UD]LWR SRYH]DQH ] UD]YRMHP PDVRYQLK SRSXODFLM ÊHODWLQR]QLK PHVRMHGRY 7L UH]XOWDWL NDÊHMR QD YHOLN SRPHQ ÊHODWLQR]QHJD PHVRMHGHJD ]RR SODQNWRQDNRWHNRORÈNHJDLQGLNDWRUMDHNRVLVWHPVNLKVSUHPHPEY6UHGR]HPVNHPPRUMX

.OMXÞQHEHVHGHNOLPDWVNHVSUHPHPEH6UHGR]HPVNRPRUMHWHPSHUDWXUQLUHÌLPÌHODWLQR]QLPHVRMHGL]RRSODQNWRQ PDVRYQRSRMDYOMDQMH

5()(5(1&(6

%HWKRX[ - 3 % *HQWLOOL - 5DXQHW ' 7DLOOLH]

:DUPLQJ WUHQG LQ WKH :HVWHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ GHHSZDWHU1DWXUHŸ

%XHFKHU ( $SSHDUDQFH RI &KHORSK\HV DSSHQ GLFXODWD DQG $E\ORSVLV WHWUDJRQD &QLGDULD 6LSKRQR SKRUDLQWKH%D\RI9LOOHIUDQFKHQRUWKZHVWHUQ0HGLWHU UDQHDQ-6HD5HVŸ

%XUQHWW - : 7UHDWPHQW RI $WODQWLF &QLGDULDQ HQYHQRPDWLRQV 7R[LFRQ GRLMWR[LFRQ

&,(60*HODWLQRXV=RRSODQNWRQ2XWEUHDNV7KH RU\ DQG 3UDFWLFH &,(60 :RUNVKRS 6HULHV 1R S KWWSZZZFLHVPRUJRQOLQHPRQRJUDSKV1DSOHV SKS

*RPH] ) * *RUVN\ 0LFURRSODQNWRQ F\FOH LQWKH1RUWKZHVWHUQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQ-3ODQNWRQ5HV

Ÿ

*R\-30RULQ 0(WLHQQH/RQJWHUPIOXF WXDWLRQV RI3HODJLD QRFWLOXFD&QLGDULD 6F\SKRPHGXVD LQWKHZHVWHUQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQ6HD3UHGLFWLRQE\FOLPDWLF YDULDEOHV'HHS6HD5HVŸ

(10)

-XDQ&DUORVet al.: 02/,1(52 &/,0$7($1'0(',7(55$1($1-(//<),6+$66(66,1*7+(())(&72)7(03(5$785(5(*,0(621-(//<),6+,

*UDKDP:0'/0DUWLQ'/)HOGHU9/$VSHU + 0 3HUU\ (FRORJLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF LPSOLFD WLRQVRIDWURSLFDOMHOO\ILVKLQYDGHULQWKH*XOIRI0H[LFR

%LRO,QYDVLRQVŸ

+D\ 6 0DULQH (FRORJ\ *HODWLQRXV %HOOV PD\

ULQJFKDQJHLQPDULQHHFRV\VWHPV&XUU%LROŸ

+D\V*$5LFKDUGVRQ &5RELQVRQ&OLPDWH FKDQJH DQG PDULQH SODQNWRQ 7UHQGV (FRO (YRO GRL MWUHH

,3&& 6XPPDU\ IRU 3ROLF\PDNHUV ,Q 6RORPRQ 6'4LQ00DQQLQJ=&KHQ00DUTXLV.%$Y HU\W 0 7LJQRU + / 0LOOHU HGV &OLPDWH &KDQJH 7KH 3K\VLFDO 6FLHQFH %DVLV &RQWULEXWLRQ RI :RUNLQJ*URXS,WRWKH)RXUWK$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWRIWKH ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH&DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH 8. DQG 1HZ <RUN 1<

86$

.DOQD\ ( DQG RWKHUV 7KH10&1&$5\HDU UHDQDO\VLV SURMHFW %XOO $P 0HWHRURO 6RF Ÿ

0HQDUG ) 6 'DOORW * 7KRPDV - & %UDFRQQRW 7HPSRUDOIOXFWXDWLRQVRIWZR0HGLWHUUDQHDQVDOS SRSXODWLRQIURPWR$QDO\VLVRIWKHLQIOXHQFH RIHQYLURQPHQWDOYDULDEOHVXVLQJD0DUNRYFKDLQPRGHO 0DU(FRO3URJ6HUŸ

0LOOV & -HOO\ILVK EORRPV DUH SRSXODWLRQV LQ FUHDVLQJJOREDOO\LQUHVSRQVHWRFKDQJLQJRFHDQFRQGL WLRQV"+\GURELRORJLDŸ

0ROLQHUR - & ) ,EDQH] 3 1LYDO ( %XHFKHU 6 6RXLVVL1RUWK$WODQWLFFOLPDWHDQGQRUWKZHVWHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ SODQNWRQ YDULDELOLW\ /LPQRO 2FHDQRJU

Ÿ

0ROLQHUR - & ) ,EDQH] 6 6RXLVVL ( %XHFKHU 6 'DOORW 3 1LYDO &OLPDWH FRQWURO RQ WKH ORQJ WHUPDQRPDORXVFKDQJHVRI]RRSODQNWRQFRPPXQLWLHVLQ WKH 1RUWKZHVWHUQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ *OREDO &KDQJH %LRO

Ÿ

3LWW.$0-.LQJVIRUG'5LVVLN ..RRS -HOO\ILVKPRGLI\WKHUHVSRQVHRISODQNWRQLFDVVHPEODJHV WRQXWULHQWSXOVHV0DU(FRO3URJ6HUŸ

3XUFHOO-&OLPDWHHIIHFWVRQIRUPDWLRQRIMHOO\

ILVKDQGFWHQRSKRUHEORRPVDUHYLHZ-0DU%LRO$V VRF8.Ÿ

5HGGDZD\ - * %LJJ &OLPDWLF FKDQJH RYHU WKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQDQGOLQNVWRWKHPRUHJHQHUDODWPRV SKHULFFLUFXODWLRQ,QW-&OLPDWROŸ

5LFKDUGVRQ$ '6FKRHPDQ&OLPDWHLPSDFW RQ SODQNWRQ HFRV\VWHPV LQ WKH 1RUWKHDVW $WODQWLF 6FL HQFHŸ

5LFKDUGVRQ $ $ %DNXQ * +D\V 0 *LEERQV 7KHMHOO\ILVKMR\ULGHFDXVHVFRQVHTXHQFHVDQG PDQDJHPHQW UHVSRQVHV WR D PRUH JHODWLQRXV IXWXUH 7UHQGV(FRO(YROŸ

5LQDOGL 6 0 &DQGDWHQ 5 &DVDJUDQGL (YL GHQFHRISHDNWRSHDNG\QDPLFVLQHFRORJ\(FRO/HWW

Ÿ

:HVW ( ' :HOVK . 3LWW D ,QIOXHQFH RI GH FRPSRVLQJ MHOO\ILVK RQ WKH VHGLPHQW R[\JHQ GHPDQG DQGQXWULHQWG\QDPLFV+\GURELRORJLDŸ

:HVW(.3LWW':HOVK..RRS '5LVVLNE 7RSGRZQDQGERWWRPXSLQIOXHQFHVRIMHOO\ILVKRQSUL PDU\ SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG SODQNWRQLF DVVHPEODJHV /LPQRO 2FHDQRJUŸ

;LDQJ:%.DQJ 5/LX-HOO\ILVKEORRPVLQ WKH<DQJW]H(VWXDU\6FLHQFHSS

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

7KH MHW RI WKH VHFRQG UXQ IORZV VOLJKWO\ WR WKH OHIW VHFWLRQ RI WKH PROG IRU VHFRQGV )LJXUH D $IWHUZDUGV WKH EHDP FKDQJHV WR D VWUDLJKW GRZQZDUGV IORZ ZKLFK

Vhyhudo vwxglhv kdyh hvwlpdwhg wkh lq xhqfh ri edqn sduwlflsdwlrq lq d upv fdslwdo rq wkh lqwhuhvw udwh sdlg e| wkh upv1 Vfkplg +4&lt;&lt;9, xvhv d Khuqgdko lqgh{ wr phdvxuh

Wkh idfwru lv qhjdwlyh wklv wlph/ vr zhoiduh lqfuhdvhv zlwk ghfuhdvlqj T @o d@ h@o Lq idfw wkh zhoiduh hhfwv ri sxeolf lqirupdwlrq lq wkh Ehuwudqg dqg Frxuqrw frpshwlwlrq duh

Wkh rswlpdo uhjxodwru| vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw lqsxw vxsso| glhuv iurp wkdw xqghu prqrsrolvwlf vxsso|1 Hvshfldoo| iru kljko| fruuhodwhg frvwv wkh rswlpdo vfkhph xqghu lqghshqghqw

FDSLWDO )LUPV LQ WKH VHUYLFHV VHFWRUV RI WKH HFRQRP\ HQMR\ KLJKHU PDUJLQDO SURGXFWV RI ,7 DOPRVW WZR WLPHV WKDQ WKHLU PDQXIDFWXULQJ FRXQWHUSDUWV 6HFRQG RUJDQL]DWLRQDO FKDQJHV

2QFH WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG YDULDEOH VHOHFWLRQ LV GRQH DOO WKH GDWD LV VDYHG LQ D 5227 ILOH FRQ WDLQLQJ RQH RU PRUH VR FDOOHG WUHHV ZLWK WKH YDULDEOHV VDYHG IRU D VSHFLILF SDUWLFOH

Zh vkrz wkdw fdslwdo dffxpxodwlrq lv frqvwlwxwhg ri vhyhudo skdvhv dqg wkdw wkh hfrqrplf wudqvlwlrq surfhvv ghshqgv rq wkh iudjlolw| ri wkh qdqfldo v|vwhp ghqhg dv wkh ghjuhh ri

7KHGDWDDQDO\VLVSURYLGHVDQRWKHULPSRUWDQWSRLQWRIYLHZRIWKHRZQHUVKLSVWUXFWXUHLQ%XOJDULDWKDW RI WKH W\SHV RI LQYHVWRUV 7DEOH LV GLYLGHG LQWR SDQHOV 3DQHO $ VKRZV WKH DYHUDJH VL]H RI