Working Paper
I
OPTIONS FOR IIASA'S
FUTURE
AGRICULTURtU PROJECT:PRELWINAKY FINDINGS OF THE FEASIBILITY
zmJm: srm
U a d i m i r Iakimets, DoneLLa Meadows, Ferenc Rabar
April, 1987 WP-87-35
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
OPTIONS FOR IIASA'S
FUTURE AGRICULTURAL
PROJJXT:PRE3JMINARY FINDINGS OF
THE
F E A S I B ~Srm
~ :U a d i m i r Iakimets. Donella Meadows, Ferenc Rabar
April, 1987 WP-87-35
Working Papers are interim reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views o r opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute o r of its National Member Organizations.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
FOREWORD
The feasibility study "Strategies and Tactics f o r Agriculture Reconstruction and Transformation" w a s planned
to
investigate t h e possibility of a new f u t u r e agricultural project a t IIASA. In o r d e r t o specify possible options f o r r e s e a r c h in this field and to discuss t h e NMOS' proposals, a seminar on sustainable agriculture w a s held in Sopron, Hungary, f r o m 2nd to 5th March 1987. In this p a p e r t h e au- t h o r s summarize t h e preliminary findings of t h e feasibility study, including also ideas raised and discussed during t h e seminar. A more detailed description of t h e s e findings will b e available in t h e Proceedings of t h e seminarto
be published later in 1987.Ferenc Rabar Program Leader Food and Agriculture Program
-
iii-
CONTENTS
Introduction
Outline of Elaborated Options
Options Revisited, Evaluated and Combined More about 'Technological" Combinations Conclusion; Next Steps
Options for IIASA's Future Agricultural Project:
Preliminary Findings of the Feasibility Study START
Madimir Iak5mets. Donella Meadows, Ferenc R a b a r
A. Iutrodndion
IIASA's Research Activity Plan f o r 1987 includes a feasibility study about t h e interaction of strategical and tactical decisions in agriculture (STA). The general problem statement and outline of t h e STA can be found in t h e Plan.
An informal seminar w a s held in Sopron, Hungary from 2-5 March 1987 t o
-
discuss t h e NMO's proposals concerning a feasibility study,-
narrow t h e field of possible r e s e a r c h ,-
specify alternative r e s e a r c h tasks,-
identify future possible collaborating institutions.Seventeen representatives from 9 NMO countries (Austria, Czechoslovakia, Federal Republic of Germany, German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Japan, The Nether- lands, USA and USSR) participated in t h e meeting and t h e round table discussion.
4 presentations made by IIASA staff, and 10 presentations made by non-IIASA parti- cipants, and t h e subsequent discussions showed that:
An investigation of economic, social, ecological, and technological conditions of a sustainable agriculture and t h e integration of agricultural and environ- mental policies a r e of g r e a t importance f o r both Eastern and Western coun- t r i e s alike. To study t h e transition of agricultural systems to a more sustain- able state is an appropriate interdisciplinary r e s e a r c h f o r IIASA. Such a study i s important f o r t h e analysis of the agro-industrial complexes as well a s f o r t h e choice among development strategies.
There are r e s e a r c h results available in various countries which can be used as building blocks f o r t h e study. Long-run consequences of short-term management decisions, impacts of technical decisions on t h e natural resources, emerging new technologies and changing social and economic situa- tions have all been subjects of investigation. All t h e NMO proposals ask f o r a complex approach and an appropriate methodology which combines these fields.
The following studies could be especially important as a starting point f o r IIASA's r e s e a r c h .
A West-German study on t h e long-term development of agricultural pro- duction in t h e FRG.
Research concerning t h e effect of Conservation Reserve under t h e Food Security A c t 1985 in t h e USA.
International activities on t h e analysis of ways f o r integrating agricul- t u r a l and environmental policies under sponsorship of t h e OECD Secre- tariat.
Soviet studies devoted t o problems of reconstruction and intensification of agricultural production.
Japanese activities on studying t h e impact of extremely new technologies in agriculture.
a Hungarian study on agricultural adaptivity.
To s e l e c t a p p r o p r i a t e topics f o r a possible f u t u r e IIASA agricultural study w e have taken into account s e v e r a l important c r i t e r i a , such as methodological and finan- cial feasibility, relevance t o IIASA, i n t e r e s t s f o r both East and West, and relevance t o decision makers.
This p a p e r contains t h e description of some options f o r an agricultural study at IIASA and i t can b e considered as background material f o r developing t h e final proposal.
B.
Outline of Elaborated OptionsDuring t h e meeting in Sopron t h e initial set of 11 possible options f o r a new IIASA study on sustainable agriculture, outlined in t h e p a p e r by Donella Meadows, were discussed, refined, and extended to 20. Some new options w e r e generated as a r e s u l t of t h e presentations made by t h e participants, and o t h e r s w e r e elaborated during t h e round table discussions. For t h e s a k e of simplicity and clarity, a full list of t h e various options are given below. When analyzing t h e list one should b e a r in mind t h a t t h e o r d e r has no p a r t i c u l a r meaning from t h e point of view of priority o r significance of a p a r t i c u l a r option.
1. Clearinghouse for Sustainable Agriculture
IIASA should b e considered as t h e "base" f o r t h e network, where extensive exchange of information and experience about sustainable agriculture would t a k e place. The activities would include international workshops, review of l i t e r a t u r e and models, and dissemination of this knowledge by means of a Newsletter.
2. Comparative Studies of Technologies
A comparative analysis of t h e c u r r e n t state and tendencies of t h e application of conventional and alternative agricultural technologies, and t h e i r performance at t h e level of experimental plots in various countries i s very much needed. Such a comparison could be done in a unbiased way by an international organization like IIASA.
3. Resources-Production Feedbacks
The problem of "endogenization" of many effects, r e g a r d e d currently as externali- t i e s (like environmental effects in economic models), is likely t o be t h e most promising way to clarify t h e interdependencies among basic natural r e s o u r c e s (such as soil, and water) and agricultural production. Comparing t h e simulation r e s u l t s of a model with and without feedback effects between production and r e s o u r c e s , t h e distortions caused by disregarded externalities can be quantified.
Some of t h e already existing models could b e used f o r such an analysis.
4. Adoption of a Particular Technology
Investigate possible ways of adopting a particular technology and project t h e dynamics of i t s implementation under various policies and various conditions. Cal- culate t h e long-run environmental impacts. This study could b e based on a "histor- ical case" (adoption of a currently widely used technology) o r i t can b e focused on t h e implementation of a new technology (for example, biotechnology).
5. Investigating Particular Agroecological Problems
A long list of p a r t i c u l a r agroecological problems exists. This list includes nutrifi- cation of groundwater, soil compaction, e t c , f o r which possible solutions are of i n t e r e s t to decision makers and social communities in both Eastern and Western countries. The necessary methodology should b e elaborated in o r d e r to b e able t o handle these types of problems.
6. Problem-Oriented Illustrative Models
Lack of d a t a about interactions among resources, technologies, and t h e environ- ment make i t v e r y difficult build a complete scientific model which includes all t h e important causal relationships, even if s o m e of them are properly described.
Therefore a small illustrative model approximating complex processes of agricul- t u r e interacting with t h e environment, could b e useful both as a pilot study for m o r e sophisticated approaches (scientific objective) and as a n information tool f o r policy makers, farmers, and students application. IIASA could develop, collect and disseminate such models.
7. Forecasting Ecological Effects of Conventional Technology
An analysis of likely f u t u r e ecological effects and economic consequences of con- ventional a g r i c u l t u r e could b e done in o r d e r to make decision makers a w a r e of t h e possible r i s k s should p r e s e n t t r e n d s continue. This analysis could b e done not only by using models but also by drawing on t h e experience of t h e experts. I t is clear t h a t a "comprehensive" f o r e c a s t w i l l b e t h e r e s u l t if a multidisciplinary and inter- disciplinary t e a m of e x p e r t s i s involved. Techniques f o r collecting, and analyzing t h e s e opinions and making a f o r e c a s t could be considered as a theme f o r IIASA.
8. Consequences of a Largescale Shift to Pore Sustainable Technologies
In almost all t h e countries d a t a are available on a small-scale o r experimental usage of sustainable agricultural-technologies. These d a t a show t h a t they can have many advantages from t h e point of view of t h e economic use of natural r e s o u r c e s as w e l l as of t h e i r environmental and ecological suitability. A systems analysis of economic and ecological implications of a large-scale shift towards sus- tainable technologies seems to b e of g r e a t i n t e r e s t to policy makers, farmers and industry. What will happen t o t h e agrochemical industries? What will be t h e neces- s a r y f l o w s of organic substances? Will t h e r e b e sufficient organic fertilizers?
What will b e t h e implications on recycling of organic wastes, on new transportation p a t t e r n s , on total c r o p production, and on food prices? How sustainable are these methods really o v e r t h e long-run? What o t h e r industries will b e stimulated? What will b e t h e implications f o r all s e c t o r s of a n economy?
9. Complex Economic Analysis of Alternatives
In o r d e r to make a decision, a comprehensive calculation of all economic conse- quences of conventional and of alternative agricultural methods, as w e l l as of t h e i r possible and most likely combinations is needed. This calculation should include also externalities and long-term effects. In t h e c a s e of uncertainty a possible a c c u r a t e statement of t h e d e g r e e of uncertainty should b e given. IIASA could ela- b o r a t e a methodology f o r t h e comprehensive economic comparison.
10. Decision Support Systems
P r e p a r e management-level decision support systems f o r t h e use of sustainable methods o r t h e combination of sustainable and conventional methods, e i t h e r at t h e level of t h e farm, o r at t h e level of t h e national o r regional planner.
11. Agroecological Cogwheel [Flywheel Examples
In various countries a cogwheel/flywheel phenomenon can b e found in t h e history of agriculture. The short-run decisions responding t o t h e day
-
to-day economic p r e s s u r e s , bring into motion long-run environmental and technical processes-
like a high energy cogwheel brings into motion a flywheel. Once t h e flywheel (environmental degradation processes, a specific technical development) begins to move, i t t a k e s o v e r t h e driving of t h e system and more and more short-run deci- sions will b e determined by it.
A r e s e a r c h activity could b e s t a r t e d in o r d e r t o analyze r e t r o s p e c t i v e examples, t o explore and simulate t h e dynamics of long-run/short-term interactions, and t o find "new" examples. I s t h e r e a point where t h e flywheel becomes unstoppable o r i r r e v e r s i b l e ? A r e t h e r e any e a r l y warning systems when thresholds are crossed?
How real and how generalizable i s t h e cogwheel/flywheel system s t r u c t u r e ?
12. System of Agroecological Monitoring
An integration of agricultural and environmental policies i s t h e inevitable outcome of agricultural development. The p r e s s u r e of conventional technologies on natural r e s o u r c e s in developed countries i s extremely high. Negative environmental consequences of applying c u r r e n t agricultural technologies were revealed in cer- tain regions with highly industrialized agriculture. For instance, impacts on t h e quality of drinking water, due t o overfertilization and t h e application of pesti- cides, have had negative e f f e c t s on human life and f o r wildlife. The profit-seeking orientation of c u r r e n t agricultural policies can b e considered as t h e main driving f o r c e f o r such a tendency. Most statistics about agricultural systems at various levels place heavy emphasis on d a t a concerning t h e economic a s p e c t s of agricul- t u r e .
A t t h e s a m e time due t o t h e lack of reliable information about changes in environ- mental quality t h e r e is little change in c u r r e n t agricultural policies. If such infor- mation w e r e available then integration of agricultural and environmental policies would b e possible. The f i r s t s t e p s towards an analysis of t h e opportunities f o r such a n integration have already been made in many developed countries during r e c e n t years. IIASA's e x p e r i e n c e in systems analysis, in environmental issues and in agricultural systems could b e used t o create a framework f o r such agroecologi- c a l statistics.
13. Principles of Technological Choice
Technical development i s heavily influenced by t r a n s i e n t market p r e s s u r e s , by fac-
tor
p r i c e changes and by short-term government policies. T h e r e f o r e t h e choices among t h e possible technical p a t h s seem t o b e random and a r b i t r a r y . I t would b e n e c e s s a r yto
investigate p a s t developments in o r d e r t o d e r i v e some principles of technical choices f o r t h e f u t u r e .14. Effect of Changing Input Structure of Agriculture
Conventional a g r i c u l t u r a l technologies, especially in developed countries, r e l y heavily on t h e application of chemicals, big machinery, fossil fuel, and o t h e r pur- chasable inputs. Some of t h e s e inputs c a n b e considered as non-renewable. If one o r s e v e r a l of t h e s e inputs were in g r e a t s c a r c i t y , what impacts would i t h a v e on a g r i c u l t u r e ? What will b e t h e r e s p o n s e of o t h e r industries? Which s u b s e c t o r s of a g r i c u l t u r e , and how, will t h e y b e a f f e c t e d ? A comprehensive analysis of t h e s e e f f e c t s c a n b e done on a national and global s c a l e , f o r a p a r t i c u l a r input, ( f o r instance fossil fuel,) o r f o r s e v e r a l inputs.
15. Possible Ecological Disasters
In t h e history of a g r i c u l t u r e t h e r e a r e a lot of examples showing how mismanage- ment of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and ignorance of ecological "laws1' led t o ecological d i s a s t e r s . The p r e s s u r e on n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and on ecological systems i s increasing o v e r time. S u r v e y s of soil f e r t i l i t y , of t h e o r g a n i c content of soil, and t h e quality of t h e water t a b l e in regions with intensive a g r i c u l t u r a l production, show t h i s tendency. S e v e r a l s u r p r i s e - r i c h s c e n a r i o s , describing possible ecologi- cal d i s a s t e r s in a g r i c u l t u r a l regions c a n b e constructed. Consequences of t h e s e d i s a s t e r s on t h e global o r national economy, on social welfare, on v a r i o u s s e c t o r s of economies could b e investigated.
16. Social Consequences of Technological Changes in Agriculture
Introduction of new technologies in a g r i c u l t u r e lead not only
to
increasing inputs and productivity b u t i t creates a l s o social problems, because of changes in t h e rates of unemployment, in t h e income formation, t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e l a b o r f o r c e , etc. Such consequences are sometimes painful f o r t h e rural communities. Possible social consequences of d r a s t i c technological transformations in a g r i c u l t u r e ( f o r instance, transition from conventional t o a l t e r n a t i v e p r a c t i c e s ) will b e o b s e r v e d not only in a g r i c u l t u r a l b u t a l s o in t h e industrial s e c t o r s of t h e economy. Their investigation i s of primary importance.17. Institutional and Organizational Structure for National Agro-Industrial Complexes
In many developed and developing c o u n t r i e s agroindustrial complexes have been established during t h e last 5-10 y e a r s . This s u b s e c t o r a l breakdown, institutional and organizational s t r u c t u r e and management p r o c e d u r e s are different. An analysis of t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s could b e a worthwhile e x e r c i s e f o r comparative international studies. On t h e basis of t h i s analysis t h e interaction between t h e main components of a g r o i n d u s t r i a l complexes, like "input" industries, a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r s , food processing, distribution and t r a d e could b e described. Bottlenecks in management p r o c e d u r e s could b e r e v e a l e d and recommendations f o r improve- ment made.
18. Impact of Industrial Development on Agriculture
Both industry and a g r i c u l t u r e are v e r y complex, interdependent and intercon- nected s e c t o r s of a n economy. T h e r e f o r e changes in t h e industrial development, in any country, will induce a "wave of consequences" in a g r i c u l t u r e , and vice v e r s a . An analysis of such impacts, a n investigation of p a s t examples with both positive and negative consequences, and a study of f u t u r e p a t h s could a l s o b e considered of i n t e r e s t t o t h e NMO countries.
19. Changes in the World Market under Sustainable Agriculture
If conventional a g r i c u l t u r e i s substituted by more sustainable p r a c t i c e s on t h e national scale t h e n t h e world market will b e heavily affected. Of c o u r s e t h e scale of t h e d i s t u r b a n c e will b e determined by t h e speed and scale of such a substitution.
This will induce changes in t h e world market f o r p u r c h a s a b l e r e s o u r c e s , such as mineral f e r t i l i z e r s and o t h e r chemicals, machinery, etc. I t will a l s o influence t h e s t r u c t u r e and p r o p o r t i o n s among corresponding industrial s e c t o r s . Some shift in usage of fossil fuels in a g r i c u l t u r e will have a n impact on t h e e n e r g y s e c t o r s of t h e economy. These and many o t h e r changes will definitely h a v e a n influence on t h e p r i c e s of a g r i c u l t u r a l commodities, p a t t e r n s of consumption, demand and supply, income formation and distribution, and t r a d e , etc. IIASA's e x p e r i e n c e in macroeconomic modeling of national and international a g r i c u l t u r a l m a r k e t interac- tions could b e useful f o r such a n analysis.
20. Environmental and Social Effects of Extremely Nen Technologies
Results of many investigations made in various c o u n t r i e s a b o u t f u t u r e a g r i c u l t u r a l technologies show t h a t technological p r o g r e s s in t h i s sector of t h e economy i s con- nected with developing biotechnology, genetic engineering, computerization of management p r o c e d u r e s and robotization. When applied on a l a r g e r s c a l e , some of t h e s e new technologies will h a v e a s t r o n g impact on a g r i c u l t u r e and will lead to a change in t h e s t r u c t u r e of i n t e r r e l a t i o n s influencing l a b o r , levels of productivity, educational background of f a r m e r s , etc. Apart from t h e s e social consequences new technologies will a l s o change t h e relationships between a g r i c u l t u r e and t h e environment. Developing a methodology t o investigate t h e new technologies and t h e i r social and environmental e f f e c t s , as w e l l as its application in case studies could b e done at IIASA.
C. Options Revisited. Evaluated and Combined
W e have a r r i v e d t o t h e s e 20 topics d e s c r i b e d above by s e v e r a l brain storming ses- sions. A s i t h a s been mentioned, v e r y important inputs were provided by t h e dif- f e r e n t p r e s e n t a t i o n s and by t h e discussions following them. However at t h e end of t h e discussions i t t u r n e d out, t h a t t h e big number of options as w e l l as t h e various formulations of t h e d i f f e r e n t topics make t h e choice among them extremely diffi- cult.
To overcome t h i s difficulty w e h a v e t r i e d t o introduce a n ad h o c evaluation system.
To find out t h e r e l a t i v e importance of t h e topics assigned t o them by t h e individual p a r t i c i p a n t s , w e a s k e d them t o answer c e r t a i n questions. These questions were r e l a t e d t o t h e feasibility, t h e uniqueness, t h e urgency, t h e East-West n a t u r e of t h e topics and t o t h e i r r e l e v a n c e t o IlASA as w e l l as t h e i r potential f o r t h e advance- ment of science.
The lists of options and c r i t e r i a f o r t h e i r evaluation were given t o participants of t h e seminar. Each of them was requested t o evaluate each option with a s e p a r a t e c r i t e r i a by using 4 as t h e best and 0 as t h e worst estimate. Two examples of d a t a received from t h e 18 participants are given in Tables 1 and 2. Table 1 contains individual judgements about t h e methodological feasibility f o r t h e options and Table 2 judgements about t h e i r relevance f o r t h e problematique of IIASA.
In trying t o formulate t h e collective wisdom, w e have applied a simple procedure t o add up t h e numbers f o r each option. On t h e basis of t h e s e estimates all options were ranked. (In o r d e r t o avoid any misinterpretation of t h e r e s u l t s w e will not provide t h e s e r e s u l t s in this paper.) From t h e rigorous point of view of mathemati- c a l statistics, o u r procedure might well b e criticized, y e t i t gave u s a feeling about a consensus of t h e participants of t h e meeting. W e have found t h a t significant p r e f e r e n c e s were given t o c e r t a i n topics like e.g.the methods t o f o r e c a s t ecologi- cal consequences of t h e c u r r e n t l y used and sustainable agricultural technologies, t h e exploration of t h e highly complex feed-back loops between production and environment, t h e social consequences of t h e technological development in agricul- ture, etc.
There w a s a n o t h e r lesson which w e have learned from t h i s "voting" procedure. I t turned out t h a t because of t h e various interpretation possibilities
-
c e r t a i n evaluation principles were ambiguous,-
sometimes not t h e topic w a s important, r a t h e r i t s formulation made i t"unique", "relevant ", "feasible" etc.
Accordingly w e have decided t h a t in addition t o t h e approach used t o a r r i v e t o t h e maximum consensus w e shall t r y t o combine t h e revealed i n t e r e s t s of t h e partici- pants. This p r o c e d u r e helped us also in reducing t h e number of topics into some combined r e s e a r c h t a s k s which then became equally interesting f o r a l a r g e number of participants.
Looking at t h e list of t h e 20 options one can see t h a t they c o v e r not only a v e r y wide spectrum of possible themes but many of them c a n b e studied at various levels (farm, regional, national, global). Furthermore some of them could b e considered a s intermediate stages f o r t h e implementation of a more complex study.
It i s clear f o r instance t h a t at l e a s t t h e options numbered 4,7,13,16 and 20 could b e studied at e a c h of t h e above levels. Options 6 and 1 0 could b e t h e final product of almost all of t h e o t h e r options. Options 2,3,7,9,11,13,14,16 and 1 9 could b e con- sidered as e i t h e r theoretical e x e r c i s e s o r systems analysis studies t h a t are impor- t a n t preliminary s t e p s f o r implementing a more integrated investigation. The main conclusion t o b e drawn from t h e s e examples i s t h a t one should t r y t o define a n a p p r o p r i a t e combination of t h e above options.
Careful analysis of t h e options and of t h e available NMO proposals has enabled us t o outline 3 possible combinations f o r t h e purpose of investigating long-term consequences of agricultural development. Because each of t h e s e combinations accentuated a p a r t i c u l a r side of a study t h e s e were named as follows:
-
macroeconomic analysis-
ecological and environmental study-
strategical technological investigation.A "macroeconomic" combination includes ideas which were formulated in options 2,3,6,8,9,12,14,16,17,18 and 19. The "ecological" combinations could b e compiled with t h e problems t h a t were outlined in options 1,2,5,7,8,9,11,12,15 and 19. In this p a p e r w e would not like t o specify t h e details about all of t h e combinations, e x c e p t t h e last one. I t is o u r opinion t h a t f u r t h e r studies and discussions will help us t o
Table 1: Individual Estimates of Options of Methodological Feasibility
Options Experts
1. Clearinghouse f o r sustainable agriculture 2. Comparative studies of technologies
3. Resources-Production feedbacks
4. Adoption of a particular technology 5. Investigating aolutions of a particular agro- ecological problem 6. Problem-oriented illustrative models 7. Forecasting remote ecological effects of conventional technology 8. Consequences of a large-shift t o more acknowledged technologies
9. Complete economic analysis of alternatives 10. Decision support systems
11. Agroecological cog- wheel/flywheel examples 12. System of agro- ecological monitoring 13. Principles f o r technological choice 14. Effect of changing input s t r u c t u r e of agriculture
15. Possible ecological d i s a s t e r s
16. Social consequences of technological changes in agriculture 17. Institutional and organizational s t r u c t u r e f o r national agro- industrial complexes 18. Impact of industrial development on
agriculture 19. Changes in t h e world market under sustainable agriculture 20. Environmental and social effects of extremely new technologies
Note: (-) means t h a t an expert did not estimate an option f o r t h i s c r i t e r i a
Table 2: Indindud Emtimatem of Relerance d OpfSorm for IIASA
Options Experts
Note: (-) means t h a t an e x p e r t d i d not estimate an option on t h i s criteria 1. Clearinghouse for
sustainable agriculture 2. Comparative studies o f technologies
3. Resources-Production feed backs
4. Adoption o f a particular technology 5. Investigatingsolutions o f a particular agro- ecological problem 6. Problem-oriented i l l u s t r a t i v e models 7. Forecasting remote ecological e f f e c t s o f conventional technology 8. Consequences o f a large-shift t o more acknowledged technologies
9. Complete economic analysis o f alternatives 10. Decision support s y s t e m s
11. Agroecological cog- wheel/f lywheel examples 12. S y s t e m o f agro- ecological monitoring 13. Principles for technological choice 14. E f f e c t o f changing input structure o f agriculture 15. Possible eco- logical d i s a s t e r s 16. Social consequences o f technology changes in agriculture
17. Institutional and organizational structure f o r national agro- industrial complexes 18. Impact o f
industrial development on agriculture
19. Changes in t h e world market under sustainable agriculture 20. Environmental and social e f f e c t s o f
extremely new technologies
14 4
1 2
0 3
4 4
4
4 4
-
0
2
0
0
0
0 1
2
15 3
4 3 4
2 2
4
3 2
2
2
1 2
0
2
3 2
2
16
1 2
0 2 0 0
0
0 0
1 0
1 0
1 4
3
2 0
0
0
1 4
3
3
17
3 3 3 2
3
1 2
1 4
2 3 3 2 3
3 2
2
1 0
2
3 4
3
1 8 4 4 2 1 4
1 1
3
1 3 1 3 1
1 1
2 3
1
2
2
3 5
3 4 1 3 - 2 2 3 3
-
0 4 4 4 - 4 3 1 3
4 4 4 4 - 2 3 2 4
6
0 4 1 4 - 2 3 4 3 3
1 4 2 4 - 3 0 3 3 1
2 2 2 2 - 3 4 3 3 2
3
0 2 2 2 - 3 4 4 3 3
3 3 4 2 - 4 4 3 3 3
3 4 4 2 - 4 4 4 3 3
0 2 4 2 - 4 4 2 3 4
3 2 3 4 - 4 4 1 3 1
0 3 4 2 - 4 4 1 3 3
4 4 3 3 - 4 3 2 3 2
2 4 3 2 - 2 3 1 3 3
0 2 4 4 - 2 2 1 2 3
1 4 3 3 - 2 3 2 4 3
0 4 2 3 - 3 1 1 3 1
2 3 3 2 - 1 1 1 4 3
0 2 4 4 - 4 2 3 4 2
7
2 8
4 9
3 1 0
1 1
1
3 11
3
1 2
2
2
3
3
2
2 2
2
3
2
2
1 2
12 4
2 3 2
1 1
3
3
2
1 3
3 3
1 3
3
1 3
4
3
4
1 4
2 13
3 2
1 3
0 2
2 3
2
3 0 2 3
1 0
2
3 0
1 0
3
2
0
find more additional specifications of combined t a s k s in o r d e r t o make t h e final selection of a f u t u r e r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t at IIASA.
However, with o u r c u r r e n t understanding and knowledge in t h i s field w e think t h a t a "technological" study i s likely t o b e t h e most a p p r o p r i a t e one. This "technologi- cal" combination i s based on t h e ideas d e s c r i b e d in options 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,11,12,13,14,16,17 and 20.
D. More A b o u t "Technological" C o m b i n a t i o n s
Accordingly w e s t a r t e d o u t with a n a t t e m p t t o specify which a g r i c u l t u r a l technolo- gies will b e used o v e r t h e long term. Since t h a t i s a n impossible f o r e c a s t to make, a n a l t e r n a t i v e i s t o specify a r a n g e of possible technological scenarios. The s c e n a r i o s should span t h e full r a n g e of what i s e v e r remotely possible, not because t h e real world will likely follow t h e e x t r e m e edges of such a r a n g e , b u t b e c a u s e investigating t h e e x t r e m e s c l a r i f i e s t h e choices and usually points up t h e advan- t a g e s of t h e middle ground.
The group in Sopron, in discussing t h e technical options available in agricul- t u r e known now and visible on t h e horizon, k e p t coming back t o t h r e e distinct paths, o r mindsets, or "technical bundles", which seemed to s p a n t h e visible f u t u r e choices and t o c a p t u r e t h e c u r r e n t schools of thought. They c a n b e loosely labeled t h e "conventional", t h e "organic", and t h e '!high-techH paths. F o r pur- poses of c l a r i t y t h e y will b e d e s c r i b e d h e r e as much more distinct and mutually exclusive t h a n t h e y r e a l l y are. Elements of all t h r e e p a t h s c a n in f a c t b e found in p r a c t i c e on some present-day farms, and in t h e f u t u r e t h e y might b e mixed t o g e t h e r in intriguing combinations, as t h e i r c o s t s and benefits become b e t t e r understood.
I t i s not at all clear whether in a IIASA p r o j e c t on a g r i c u l t u r a l sustainability t h e s e p a t h s should b e explored as s e p a r a t e and p u r e options. But i t i s worth lay- ing them o u t h e r e as distinct, t o help organize t h e l a r g e a r r a y of p r e s e n t and f u t u r e technologies now under discussion. And t h e r e i s some validity t o distin- guishing t h e s e 'bundles" of technologies, because underlying e a c h set t h e r e is a n identifiable mindset o r philosophy or set of assumptions. The technologies will probably b e intermixed in t h e f u t u r e t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t human beings c a n mix dif- f e r e n t guiding philosophies in t h e i r minds, or t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e y c a n choose technologies by purely pragmatic c r i t e r i a , r a t h e r t h a n by t h e congruence of a technology with a comfortable mindset.
The following specification of t h e t h r e e technical bundles is preliminary and incomplete. I t would need t o b e developed and made more comprehensive by many discussions and much r e s e a r c h b e f o r e i t would b e sufficient as a guide to p r e c i s e s c e n a r i o s of f u t u r e a g r i c u l t u r a l technical paths.
In introducing t h e s e "technological bundles" w e should distinguish t h e i r guid- ing philosophy:
O r g a n i c
-
utilize a n d enhance cost-free n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s ; d e a l with living things differently from inanimate things; r e s p e c t n a t u r a l systems a n d existing r u r a l social s t r u c t u r e s .C o n v e n t i o n a l
-
maximize output, minimize c o s t , b e guided by short-term economic rationality.H i g h - t e c h
-
bring biological systems under more control, i n c r e a s e predicta- bility and uniformity, b e guided by t h e logic of c u r r e n t industrial methods."Technical h d l e "
CROP Organic
PRODUCTION
Soil d i s t u r b s o i l a s l i t - moldboard plow;
Reparation t l e a s p o s s i b l e t o r e g u l a r c u l t i v a t i o n p r e v e n t e r o s i o n w i t h d i s k s and h a r - and t o k e e p weed r o w s , s a m e no-till s e e d s f r o m germi- ( w i t h h e r b i c i d e s ) nation. C o n t o u r
ploughing, no-till ( w i t h o u t h e r b i c i d e ) ridge-till, build humus c o n t e n t t o k e e p s o i l f r i a b l e
n i t r o g e n
o t h e r n u t r i e n t s
water SPppb
mmt
protectioni n s e c t s
p a t h o g e n s
f i x a t i o n w i t h legumes, compost- i n g and manuring, r e c y c l i n g of r e s i - dues, g r e e n manur- ing, s l o w r e l e a s e f rom humus
s a m e a s a b o v e plus m i n e r a l i z a t i o n by s o i l m i c r o b e s f r o m p a r e n t s o i l m a t e r i a l
s a m e a s conven- t i o n a l , w i t h t r a c k s o r o v e r h e a d s u s p e n s i o n t o r e d u c e compaction, i n c r e a s e d r o b o t i z a - t i o n or no s o i l ( s e e below)
chemical f e r t i l i z e - g e n e t i c a t t a c h m e n t t i o n combined w i t h of N-fixation abil- u s e of o r g a n i c i t y t o a l l p l a n t s , w
methods chemical f e r t i l i z e r
i n c o m p u t e r i z e d hydroponic s o l u t i o n s a m e a s a b o v e
high humus c o n t e n t i r r i g a t i o n w h e r e t o hold w a t e r , s t r i p n e c e s s a r y p l a n t i n g and con-
t o u r ploughing t o enhance i n f i l t r a - t i o n and r e d u c e runoff, some irri- g a t i o n w i t h c a r e f u l a t t e n t i o n t o e f f i - c i e n t w a t e r u s e and a v o i d a n c e of s a l t - i n g o r of groundwa- t e r drawdown
n a t u r a l p r e d a t o r s , i n s e c t i c i d e s , some n a t u r a l r e s i s t a n c e , breeding f o r r e s i s - companion planting, t a n t v a r i e t i e s a v o i d a n c e of mono-
c u l t u r e , u s e of r e s i s t a n t v a r i e t i e s
c r o p r o t a t i o n , f u n g i c i d e s breeding a v o i d a n c e of mono- f o r r e s i s t a n c e c u l t u r e , u s e of
r e s i s t a n t v a r i e t i e s
chemical f e r t i l i z e r i n optimized a m o u n t s i n hydro- ponic s o l u t i o n c o n t r o l l e d eupply a u t o m a t i c a l l y d e l i v e r e d when r e q u e s t e d by s o i l m o i s t u r e probes, p e r h a p s enclosed f i e l d s f o r r e c a p t u r e of e v a p o t r a n s p i r a - t i o n and t o t a l cli- m a t e c o n t r o l
e i t h e r complete e n c l o s u r e f r o m i n s e c t s o r g e n e t i - c a l l y e n g i n e e r e d r e s i s t a n c e g e n e t i c a l l y - e n g i n e e r e d r e s i s - t a n c e
w e e d s r i d g e - t i l l o r con- v e n t i o n a l t i l l a g e , mulching c r o p r o t a - t i o n , r e l a y c r o p - ping a l l e l o p a t h y
c o n v e n t i o n a l t i l - l a g e and h e r b i c i d e s
e i t h e r complete e n c l o s u r e o r herbi- c i d e s combined w i t h c r o p s g e n e t i c a l l y - e n g i n e e r e d f o r her- b i c i d e r e s i s t a n c e u s u a l l y l i g h t w e i g h t
and small-scale t o a v o i d compaction, f l e x i b l e t o handle
high-powered spe- c i a l i z e d and l a r g e t o p a s s q u i c k l y o v e r l a r g e f i e l d s of monoculture
highly r o b o t i z e d and computerized, s e l f - a d j u s t i n g many c r o p s i n a
r o t a t i o n
u l t i m a t e l y biogas and some non-
non-renewable f o s - s i l f u e l and s o l a r
f o s s i l f u e l and renewable?
e n e r g y s o u r c e ( o t h e r t h a n
s o l a r ) renewable f o s s i l
f u e l
ANlEAL organic
PBODUCTION
n a t u r a l m e t h o d s on a r t i f i c i a l insemina- t i o n
a r t i f i c i a l insernina- t i o n
g e n e t i c engineer- ing, cloning, t e s t - t u b e i n s e m i n a t i o n and i m p l a n t a t i o n
feeding g r a z i n g on highly-
mixed p a s t u r e s , s e l f - s e l e c t i o n of f e e d s , o r g a n i c g r a i n s , g r e e n s . No a d d i t i v e s
high-density f e e d l o t s , g r a i n s mixed t o minimize c o s t and d e l i v e r b a s i c (known) n u t r i e n t s . Hor- monal and a n t i b i - o t i c a d d i t i v e s
c o m p u t e r i z e d indi- vidualized
a u t o m a t i c f e e d d e l i v e r y . Hor- mones g e n e t i c a l l y manipulated f o r maximum y i e l d t i g h t confinement
t o minimize motion and maximize y i e l d and t o minimize building c o s t
complete confine- m e n t i n c l i m a t e c o n t r o l l e d build- i n g s
normal b a r n s w i t h a c c e s s t o f r e s h a i r , s u n l i g h t
low d e n s i t y , n a t u r a l h e a l t h of animal, some v a c c i - n a t i o n
a n t i b i o t i c s i n f e e d , r e g u l a r m e d i c a t i o n f o r p a r a s i t e s , vac- c i n a t i o n
e n c l o s u r e t o minim- ize e x p o s u r e t o p a t h o g e n s g e n e t i c a l l y - e n g i n e e r e d resis- t a n c e
r e g u l a r l y r e t u r n e d t o f i e l d s , which a r e n e a r l y , o r made i n t o b i o g a s
sold t o cash-crop f a r m e r s f o r r e t u r n t o f i e l d s , o r r e g a r d e d a s a t r o u - blesome w a s t e pro- d u c t
biogas?
organic comentional hkh-tech k n o w l e d g e and high
i n f o r m a t i o n
c a p i t a l m o d e r a t e l a b o r
land
m o d e r a t e high
v e r y high
v e r y high (much o f f - f a r m )
m o d e r a t e l o w m o d e r a t e ( h i g h l y s k i l l e d ,
( m o d e r a t e l y s k i l l e d ) ( m o d e r a t e l y s k i l l e d ) o f f - f a r m )
high l o w very l o w
n a t u r a l e c o s y s t e m high s e r v i c e s
m o d e r a t e very l o w
c h e m i c a l s l o w high m o d e r a t e
e n e r g y ( o t h e r t h a n l o w m o d e r a t e high?
s o l a r )
E. Conclusion: N e x t S t e p s
A s i t h a s been said t h e s e technical paths should b e explored f u r t h e r and only afterwards will i t b e possible t o decide whether w e should investigate t h e i r dynam- ics and s t r u c t u r a l consequences in t h e i r above defined p u r e form o r should w e r a t h e r create those mixed technical bundles which s e e m t o b e t h e most realistic from t h e point of view of t h e p r e s e n t and expected r e s o u r c e scarcity.
Looking at t h e possible combinations of t h e topics listed above, as a f i r s t tentative approach w e can define t h e following r e s e a r c h t a s k s f o r o u r feasibility study:
1. Define t h r e e technical bundles (sustainable, conventional and high tech.) o r t h e i r a p p r o p r i a t e combinations and
-
using t h e i r production-environment feedback loops (option 3.)-
look at t h e i r f u t u r e development (option 8.)-
calculate t h e i r environmental (option 4.)-
social, (option 16.) and-
economic consequences (option 14 and 9)and by evaluating t h e r e s u l t s assess t h e t r a d e offs between t h e i r s h o r t run economic efficiency and long r u n sustainability.
This r e s e a r c h would not deal with all t h e f a c t o r s influencing t h e technical choices in t h e real world. If required, t h e s e could be embodied in t h e predetermined technical bundles. The investigation would r a t h e r be oriented towards t h e conse- quences of development, t h e question being not s o much how t h e technologies ori- ginate but r a t h e r where do they lead to? In t h e r e a l world t h e r e would not b e any guarantee t h a t t h e p a r t i c u l a r bundles chosen f o r t h e analysis will b e realized.
Their f u t u r e existence and development will only be assumed. Y e t by comparing t h e s e assumed technical bundles and evaluating them in t h e i r largest possible con- t e x t , t h e r e s e a r c h will show
-
t h e different consequences of t h r e e technical development paths (a market driven, an ecological and an autonomous one) in t h e economic, social and environmental fields,-
t h e complexity and interdependence of t h e extended system,-
t h e different dynamics of t h e t h r e e development p a t t e r n s originating from t h e different environmental feedback systems involved in them,-
t h e economic, social and ecological vulnerability and possible b r e a k down points of t h e s e development p a t h s and-
t h e e x t e n t of t h e n e c e s s a r y s t r u c t u r a l changes resulting from them.2. Analyze economic f a c t o r s (markets, p r i c e s , subsidies, t a x e s , t a r i f f s , quotas e t c . ) t o assess how t h e y are r e l a t e d t o t h e p r o d u c e r s ' choices concerning techni- c a l development. Find o u t what kind of long term considerations are involved in t h e p r e s e n t investment and technological decisions. Analyze t h e long r u n conse- quences of t h e s e decisions and t h e possible conflicts between long r u n and s h o r t r u n a s p e c t s (option 11). Describe t h e interaction and t h e dynamics of t h e involved s h o r t r u n and long r u n p r o c e s s e s . Identify t h e underlying principles in t h e techni- c a l choices (option 13). Identify important e x t e r n a l i t i e s and e f f e c t s beyond t h e generally used time horizon t o assess how much are t h e p r e s e n t decisions d i s t o r t e d by using a myopic, narrow microeconomic view (options 3 and 4). Develop small illustrative models t o r e f l e c t t h e dynamics of s h o r t r u n vs.long r u n decisions (option 6).
The s t a r t i n g point of t h i s r e s e a r c h would be a n empirical investigation of t h e r e a l world f a c t o r s influencing investment and technological decisions. Accordingly t h e genesis of t h e s e decisions would b e in t h e focus of t h e analysis. However a c r i t i c a l point of view would b e used concentrating a l s o on t h e missing elements and neglected a s p e c t s and showing how c a n s h o r t r u n decisions lead t o unexpected and a d v e r s e long t e r m consequences.
I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t as t h e r e s u l t of t h i s r e s e a r c h
