Cost-effective technology choices in personal transport
Timur Gül, S. Kypreos, H. Turton, L. Barreto
Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute Switzerland
1st International Conference on Mobility and Energy
Vienna, February 29, 2008
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 2 of 20
Presentation Outline
1. Technology Assessment
• Alternative fuels production & distribution (hydrogen & biofuels)
• Vehicle / drivetrains
2. Modeling Framework
3. Scenario Analyses
4. Conclusions
Part 1: Technology Assesment
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 4 of 20
Hydrogen Production Cost
Sources: adapted from US DoE (2006) and Felder (2007) Note: Interest rate 5%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Coal gasification Coal gasification with CCS Natural gas reforming Natural gas reforming with CCS Biomass gasification Central wind + electrolysis Electrolysis Nuclear sulphur-iodine cycle High-pressure (HP) electrolysis Nuclear high-pressure electrolysis Nuclear high-temperature electrolysis Solar zinc/zinc-oxide cycle Solar coke gasification
US$/GJ
Current Technology
Future Technology
Hydrogen Delivery Options
Key assumptions:
- Demand centers request 250 t H
2/day - delivery distance 80 km on average
CITY
Terminal Hydrogen
Production Plant
Hydrogen Production
Plant
Hydrogen Production
Plant Pipeline
Pip eline
Pipeline
Hydrogen Fueling Station Hydrogen
Fueling Station
Truck
Truck Pip
eline
CITY
Terminal Hydrogen
Fueling Station Hydrogen
Fueling
Station T
ruck Truck
Pipeline Truck
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 6 of 20
Cost of Delivered H 2 from Coal Gasification 2030
Source: US DoE (2006)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Liquid Direct Truck Delivery,
Small FS
Gaseous Direct Truck Delivery,
Small FS
Liquid Direct Truck Delivery,
Large FS
Pipeline Ring System, Large
FS
Pipeline, Terminal, Liquid Truck Delivery, Large
FS
Pipeline, Terminal, Gaseous Truck Delivery, Large
FS
US$2000/GJ
Large Fueling StationSmall Fueling Station Gaseous Truck Delivery Liquid Truck Delivery Terminal
Liquefaction Pipeline Compression Production
Gasoline $0.5/litre
Biofuels Costs
Source: Ragettli (2007)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Wood-to Biodiesel Wood-to-FT-Diesel Wood-to-DME Wood-to-SNG Wood-to-MeOH Stover-to-EtOH Corn-to-EtOH Sugar Beet-to-EtOH Oil Crops-to-FAEE Waste-to-SNG
US$2000/GJ
Production [$/GJ] Biomass [$/GJ] Energy [$/GJ] T&D [$/GJ]
Gasoline $0.5/litre
2nd Generation
1st Generation
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 8 of 20
Technologies in Personal Transport
X X
Hydrogen
X X
Natural Gas
X X
Biofuels
X X
X Oil Products
Fuel Cell Electric Hybrid ICE Electric
Hybrid
ICE
Key learning components personal transport
US$ per vehicle 2‘800
6‘500 8.2 kWh
Plug-In Hybrid
US$ per vehicle 12‘000
16‘250 48 kWh
Battery Electric
US$ per vehicle 800
2‘500 28
Hybrid Battery System
25 90
40 Reformer
40 250
40 Fuel Cell
[US$/kW]
[US$/kW]
[kW]
Future Cost Initial Cost
Assumptions Size
Source: Turton (2006), Kromer (2007), own assumptions
• All these new vehicles assumed available as of 2010
• All vehicle costs are reduced along the same time trajectory, i.e. they reach their future
lowest costs at the same time
Part 2: Modeling Framework
European Hydrogen Model EHM
• developed at Paul Scherrer Institute
• MARKAL-class model
• „bottom-up“ energy-system model with detailed representation of technologies
• cost-optimization model: identifies least-cost solutions for the energy system under given sets of assumptions and constraints
• based on IPCC-SRES B2 scenario („middle-of-the-road“), calibrated to year 2000 statistics from IEA
• represents the energy system of EU-29
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 12 of 20
EHM Reference Energy System - Structure
Resource Extraction
•Oil
•Gas
•Coal
•Renewables
•Uranium
Conversion Technologies
•Electricity / Heat Generation
•Fuels Production (Oil products,
Biofuels, Hydrogen, etc.)
T&D
End-Use Technologies
•Transportation
•Industrial Thermal
•Industrial Specific
•Res./Comm.
Thermal
•Res./Comm.
Specific
•Feedstocks Primary
Energy Carriers
Final Energy Carriers
Each Technology is represented by its costs
and efficiency!
Key Modeling Assumptions
• Oil price max. US$ 110 /bbl in 2100, natural gas price linked to oil price
• No restriction on the availability of fossil resources
• Only European biomass potential (7.2 EJ), no import of biomass or
biofuels allowed
Part 3: Scenario Analyses
1. Baseline Scenario: Personal Transport EU-29
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
b ill io n v e h ic le -k m
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Biofuels Hybrid
Oil Products Hybrid
Biofuels ICEV
Gas ICEV
Diesel ICEV
Gasoline ICEV
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 16 of 20
2. 50% CO 2 Reduction Target in 2050
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
b ill io n v e h ic le -k m
Hydrogen FCV Biofuels Hybrid Gas Hybrid
Oil Products Hybrid Biofuels ICEV Gas ICEV Diesel ICEV Gasoline ICEV
Hybrids
Hydrogen FCVs
3. Varying CO 2 Reduction Targets
Hybrids
Hydrogen FCVs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Biofuels H2 Biofuels H2 Biofuels H2
40% Target 50% Target 60% Target
M a rk e t S h a re
Year 2030 Year 2050 Year 2100
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 18 of 20
4. The Role of Oil Prices under a 50% CO 2 target
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Oil 50 Oil 70 Oil 90 Oil 110 Oil 130 Oil 150 Oil 170 Oil 190
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Share in Personal Transport
2030 2050
Baseline Oil Price
Biofuels Market Share Hydrogen Market Share
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Oil 50 Oil 70 Oil 90 Oil 110 Oil 130 Oil 150 Oil 170 Oil 190
Biofuels Share in Personal Transport
2030 2050
Baseline Oil Price
5. How could fuel cells contribute ealier?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2020 2030 2050
Hydrogen Market Share in Personal Transport
40$/kW 50$/kW 60$/kW 70$/kW 80$/kW
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2020 2030 2050
Hydrogen Market Share in Personal Transport
40$/kW 50$/kW 60$/kW 70$/kW 80$/kW
Floor cost in 2020
Floor cost in 2050
Timur Gül COME Vienna, 29 February 2008 Slide 20 of 20
