Envisioning desirable pathways for the Indus Basin
2 June 2018
Systems Approach
needed!
FORECAST …
… fails in complex realities
Consistent and coherent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures
that reflect different perspectives
on past, present, and future developments, which can serve as a basis for action.
Philippe van Notten
Notten, P. van, 2006. Chapter 4 Scenario development: a typology of approaches, Published in Think Scenarios, Rethink Education, available at http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/27/38/37246431.pdf
Scenarios
Example: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
https://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Scenarios.html
EXTERNAL
Scenarios
INTERNAL Pathways, Strategies
Challenges Trade-offs
Solutions Synergies
Pathways Elements & Spatial representation
VIDEO
Business as Usual
Gathering data, representing current situation
Developing stakeholders’
pathways
Developing model pathways
provide input for
provide feedback
and …
CURRENT
SITUATION STAKEHOLDER
PATHWAYS MODEL
PATHWAYS
Sustainability Sustainability Desirable future 1
… revisions suggestions is a basis for
Thanks
CURRENT SITUATION
STEP 1
2018 2050
Desired Future Pathway
STEP 3
Demand
WATER
Availability
ENERGY
Demand Production
LAND
Demand Availability
FOOD
Demand Production
Outflow
Precipitation
Runoff
Evapotranspiration
Population Urbanization
CURRENT SITUATION
STEP 1
CURRENT SITUATION
STEP 1
2018 2050
Business as Usual Pathway
STEP 2
2018 2050
Desired Future Pathway
STEP 3
STEP 4
Robustness of Pathways
CURRENT SITUATION
STEP 1
Work in groups - Current state
- infrastructure,
- socio-economic factors, - policies
- Main challenges
Presentations of group results
2018 2050
Business as Usual Pathway
STEP 2
Work in groups
- use current state (previous step) as a reference - discuss changes under the current trends in:
- infrastructure,
- socio-economic factors, - policies
- record changes:
- on the map
- on the timeline
Presentations of group results
Business as Usual Pathway
STEP 2
