Indus Basin Knowledge Forum, June 2018
MESSAGE-basin
Model applied to
Indus
Overview
• Contestualization
• MESSAGEix
• MESSAGE-basin
• Progress
• Next steps
Develop new nexus tool to identify sustainable development pathways at the river basin-scale
• Balances human development and environmental objectives
• Integrates water and energy infrastructure planning
• Incorporates key global change processes in the assessment of resource availability
• Interacts with global tools used to provide international market and policy guidance
• Incorporates key regional and local indicators from stakeholders
• Addresses issues and provides results for the whole basin
Research Objectives
Prioritized nexus challenges for the Indus basin assessment
Water and land
• Complex canal and irrigation system
• Groundwater depletion and water storage
• Lack of wastewater treatment
• Burning of crops leads to air pollution
• Very little flow reaches the sea
Energy systems
• Electricity can be unreliable
• Electricity can be too cheap
• Air pollution and GHGs increasing
• Hydropower generation
Livelihoods
• Transformations and employment impacts
Laghari and others (2012)
MESSAGEix framework
Why using the MESSAGEix framework?
• Well consolidated
• Open source: sharing, capacity building
• Online IIASA scenario database
• Prerequisites for transferability
Possible future opportunities
1. Application of the model to other basins 2. Multi-basin analysis
3. Nesting basin model with the MESSAGEix global model
MESSAGEix: basic concepts
Technology 1
Technology 2
C om m odity 1.lev el 1 C om m odit y 2. lev el 1 C om m odit y 2. lev el 2
Resource extraction/
availability
Demand
Optimization variables
associated to each technology:
CAPACITY ACTIVITY
Investment cost Fixed and variable costs
Linear optimization model
• minimization the total system costs
• Commodity balance with demand
MESSAGE-basin: Indus
An integrated tool for nexus analysis
Key features
• Focus on medium- to long-term technological pathways
• Optimization of technology size (capacity), location and inter- linkages between technologies
• Technology output optimized to meet varying demands and resource constraints through time
• Computes economic and environmental impacts of technologies and policies
Novelties of MESSAGE-basin
1. Co-optimization of water and energy technologies
2. Linkage to land-use and hydrological modeling
3. Flexible approach for application in other regions
Multi-scale assessment of pathways
Indus River Basin
Reduced-form River network
Outlet to sea
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM IAM
International trade
Climate policies and impacts Socioeconomic pathways
Global transformations 11 Regions
NAM
LAM
MEA
SSA WEU
EEU
FSU
CPA
PAO PAS
SAS
MESSAGE-Indus Integrated water-energy systems modeling
Optimal system transformations under combined policy objectives
MESSAGE-basin
GLOBIOM
CWatM Technology and
Policy Database
Water Availability Irrigation Pathways
freshwater.retrun_flow
urban_sw_diversi urban_gw_diversion
on
rural_sw_diversio rural_gw_diversion
n
irrigation_sw_dive rsion irrigation_gw_dive
rsion
urban_piped_distr ibution urban_unpiped_di
stribution
rural_piped_distri bution rural_unpiped_dis
tribution
irrigation_drip irrigation_sprinkle
irrigation_floodr urban_wastewate
r_collection urban_wastewate
r_release
rural_wastewater _collection rural_wastewater
_release urban_return_flo
w
rural_return_flow internal_runoff
groundwater river_flow (from
upstream)
river_flow (to downstream)
Irrigation_desal
urban_wastewate r_treatment urban_wastewate
r_recycling rural_wastewate
r_treatment rural_wastewate
r_recycling rural_desal
urban_desal
urban_withdrawal
rural_withdrawal
irrigation_withdraw al
conveyance (to downstream) conveyance (from
upstream)
Fixed Demand Resource Extraction Technology
Legend
sea
energy sector freshwater techs
energy sector seawater techs
spill
freshwater.rural_secondary freshwater.rural_final freshwater.irrigation_final freshwater.irrigation_field
wastewater.urban_secondary wastewater.rural_secondary wastewater.urban_final wastewater.rural_final
freshwater.river freshwater.aquifer salinewater.sea
Water sector
freshwater.urban_secondary freshwater.urban_final
freshwater.retrun_flow
urban_sw_diversi urban_gw_diversion
on
rural_sw_diversio rural_gw_diversion
n
irrigation_sw_dive rsion irrigation_gw_dive
rsion
urban_piped_distr ibution urban_unpiped_di
stribution
rural_piped_distri bution rural_unpiped_dis
tribution
irrigation_drip irrigation_sprinkle
irrigation_floodr urban_wastewate
r_collection urban_wastewate
r_release
rural_wastewater _collection rural_wastewater
_release urban_return_flo
w
rural_return_flow internal_runoff
groundwater river_flow (from
upstream)
river_flow (to downstream)
Irrigation_desal
urban_wastewate r_treatment urban_wastewate
r_recycling rural_wastewate
r_treatment rural_wastewate
r_recycling rural_desal
urban_desal
urban_withdrawal
rural_withdrawal
irrigation_withdraw al
conveyance (to downstream) conveyance (from
upstream)
gas_cl_freshwater
gas_ot_freshwater
gas_ot_seawater gas_air_cooling
Coal: different cooling technologies Oil: different
cooling technologies
hydropower
Nuclear: different cooling technologies Geothermal:
different cooling technologies
solar_pv Fixed Demand wind
Resource Extraction Technology commodity.level
Legend
water flow
urban_elec_demand
rural_elec_demand
industry_elec_dema nd electricity_distributi
on_urban electricity_distributi
on_rural electricity_distributi
on_irrigation electricity_distributi
on_industry sea
energy sector freshwater techs
energy sector seawater techs
spill
water sector urban, rural and
irrigation techs
freshwater.rural_secondary freshwater.rural_final freshwater.irrigation_final freshwater.irrigation_field
wastewater.urban_secondary wastewater.rural_secondary
wastewater.urban_final wastewater.rural_final electricity.ittigation_final
oil.energy_secondary coal.energy_secondary
freshwater.river freshwater.aquifer salinewater.sea gas.energy_secondary electricity.urban_secondary electricity.urban_final electricity.rural_final electricity.industry_final
Water sector
Energy sector
freshwater.urban_secondary freshwater.urban_final
Water
withdrawals for power plants
Electricity for water
technologies Water
discharges from power plants
Under development:
• Irrigation technologies
• different crops,
• food demand/price
irrigation_drip irrigation_sprinkle
r
