Holzikofenweg 36, 3003 Bern
Distribution: Tel. +41 (0)31 324 08 60, Fax +41 (0)31 323 50 01, 08.2013 100 www.seco.admin.ch, wp-sekretariat@seco.admin.ch
13 THE FINANCIAL SECTOR AND THE ECONOMY: A PILLAR OR A BURDEN? (B
Martin Eichler Michael Grass Alessandro Torti Max Künnemann
The Financial Sector and the Economy:
A Pillar or a Burden?
Study on behalf of the State
Secretariat of Economic Affairs SECO Strukturberichterstattung
Nr. 50/1
Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research EAER
State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO Economic Policy Directorate
!% ! !""
""! !%
( ' %!
% ) ! ! &!
%&) % %%
!%!% !"
! *#
&RQWHQWV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0RWLYDWLRQ DQG DSSURDFK
)UDPHZRUN DQG GHILQLWLRQV
7KH UHVHDUFK FRQWH[W
7KH QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK PRGHO
7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK PRGHOV
)XQFWLRQV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
7RR PXFK RI D JRRG WKLQJ"
)LQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG JURZWK
(PSLULFDO UHVHDUFK RQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG JURZWK
7KH QLQHWLHV OLWHUDWXUH
7DNLQJ WKH FULWLTXH LQWR DFFRXQW
(IIHFWV RQ VPDOO DQG ODUJH ILUPV
&DXVDOLW\ EHWZHHQ DJJUHJDWH JURZWK DQG ILQDQFLDOVHFWRU GHYHORSPHQW
&KDSWHU VXPPDU\
6HOHFWHG IDFWV DERXW WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
6L]H DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
9DULDWLRQ LQ UHJLRQV DQG FRXQWULHV
*URZWK FRQWULEXWLRQV RI NH\ LQGXVWULHV RI 6ZLW]HUODQG
6XEVHFWRUDO VWUXFWXUH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO OLQNV RI WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
&KDSWHU VXPPDU\
5HVHDUFK VHWXS
0HDVXULQJ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
([FXUVXV ,QGLFDWRUV RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH
,QGLFDWRUV RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW
)LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH 6ZLVV HFRQRP\
7KH WUDQVPLVVLRQ FKDQQHOV XQGHU VFUXWLQ\
,VRODWLQJ WKH FDWDO\WLF LPSDFW RQ JURZWK
.H\ FRQWULEXWLRQV WR UHVHDUFK
&RQFHQWUDWLRQ RQ 2(&' HFRQRPLHV
0XOWLSOH VSHFLILFDWLRQV DQG LQGLFDWRUV
'DWD DW WKH VHFWRU OHYHO
'DWD DW WKH UHJLRQDO OHYHO
0HWKRGRORJ\ DQG GDWD
'DWD
'HSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV
.H\ H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV
&RQWURO YDULDEOHV
(FRQRPHWULF 0RGHO
&KRLFH RI UDQGRP DQG IL[HG HIIHFWV HVWLPDWRU
6WDWLRQDULW\
&RUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW LQGLFDWRUV
&DXVDOLW\ DQG K\SRWKHVLVOHG DQDO\VLV
5HVXOWV
+\SRWKHVHV VXPPDU\
6L]H RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
6SHFLILFDWLRQ
5HVXOWV IRU JURZWK RI DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
5HVXOWV IRU VSHFLILF LQGXVWULHV
6L]H RI WKH UHJLRQDO ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
6SHFLILFDWLRQ
5HVXOWV IRU JURZWK RI WKH UHJLRQDO HFRQRP\
5HVXOWV IRU JURZWK LQ VSHFLILF LQGXVWULHV DW UHJLRQDO OHYHO
,QQRYDWLRQ
6SHFLILFDWLRQ
5HVXOWV IRU 3DWHQWV *URZWK LQ WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
6\VWHPLF ULVNV YRODWLOLW\
6SHFLILFDWLRQ
5HVXOWV IRU 2XWSXW *URZWK 9RODWLOLW\ LQ WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
5HVXOWV IRU 2XWSXW *URZWK 9RODWLOLW\ LQ WKH UHJLRQDO DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
&RQFOXVLRQ DQG VXPPDU\
/LWHUDWXUH
/LVW RI WDEOHV
7DE (FRQRPLF JURZWK FRPSRQHQWV
7DE )LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW LQGLFDWRUV
7DE &RQWURO YDULDEOHV
7DE (FRQRPHWULF PRGHO
7DE 8QLW URRW WHVWV
7DE )LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW LQGLFDWRUV FRUUHODWLRQV 7DE *UDQJHU &DXVDOLWLHV ± /DJ VSHFLILFDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO GHSWK DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ QDWLRQDO OHYHO ±
EDVHOLQH HVWLPDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO GHSWK DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ QDWLRQDO OHYHO ±
UREXVWQHVV FKHFNV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO GHSWK DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ QDWLRQDO OHYHO ±
FUHGLW WR ILUPV RQO\
7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO GHSWK LQGXVWULHV QDWLRQDO OHYHO ± EDVHOLQH HVWLPDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO GHSWK LQGXVWULHV QDWLRQDO OHYHO ± FUHGLW WR
ILUPV RQO\
7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG UHJLRQDO 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO ± EDVHOLQH HVWLPDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG UHJLRQDO 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW DJJUHJDWH
HFRQRP\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO ± 5REXVWQHVV FKHFNV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG UHJLRQDO 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW LQGXVWU\
VSHFLILF UHJLRQDO OHYHO VSHFLDOL]HG UHJLRQV ± EDVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG UHJLRQDO 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW LQGXVWU\
VSHFLILF UHJLRQDO OHYHO VSHFLDOL]HG UHJLRQV± UREXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV *URZWK DQG UHJLRQDO 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW LQGXVWU\
VSHFLILF UHJLRQDO OHYHO IXOO VDPSOH UHJLRQV± UREXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV ,QQRYDWLRQ 3DWHQWV *URZWK DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ QDWLRQDO OHYHO ±
EDVHOLQH HVWLPDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV ,QQRYDWLRQ 3DWHQWV *URZWK DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ QDWLRQDO OHYHO ±
UREXVWQHVV HVWLPDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV 2XWSXW *URZWK 9RODWLOLW\ DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ QDWLRQDO OHYHO ±
EDVHOLQH HVWLPDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV 2XWSXW *URZWK 9RODWLOLW\ DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO ±
EDVHOLQH HVWLPDWLRQV 7DE (VWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV 2XWSXW *URZWK 9RODWLOLW\ DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO ±
DOWHUQDWLYH HVWLPDWLRQV
/LVW RI ILJXUHV
)LJ 3UREOHP GHILQLWLRQ
)LJ 7UDQVPLVVLRQV FKDQQHOV EHWZHHQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG JURZWK GHWHUPLQDQWV )LJ )LQDQFLDO VHFWRU UHDO YDOXHDGGHG JURZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU VKDUH RI WRWDO YDOXH
DGGHG )LJ 9DULDWLRQ DPRQJ UHJLRQV DQG FRXQWULHV LQ DJJUHJDWH YDOXHDGGHG JURZWK DQG LQ
ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU VKDUH RI WKH DJJUHJDWH YDOXHDGGHG )LJ *URZWK FRQWULEXWLRQV RI NH\ LQGXVWULHV RI 6ZLW]HUODQG )LJ 6XEVHFWRUDO VWUXFWXUH LQ WHUPV RI YDOXHDGGHG )LJ 'RPHVWLF YDOXHDGGHG E\ ILQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDWLRQ HPERGLHG LQ IRUHLJQ ILQDO GHPDQG
DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI WRWDO YDOXHDGGHG )LJ ([SRUWV LPSRUWV DQG WUDGH EDODQFHV E\ WKH EDQNLQJ DQG LQVXUDQFH LQGXVWULHV RI WKH
VDPSOH FRXQWULHV )LJ 6ZLVV EDODQFH RI SD\PHQWV E\ EDQNLQJ DQG LQVXUDQFH LQGXVWU\
)LJ )LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW LQGLFDWRUV IRU VHOHFWHG FRXQWULHV RYHU WLPH \HDU DYHUDJHV )LJ 6FKHPDWLF RUJDQLVDWLRQ RI WKH HPSLULFDO DQDO\VLV )LJ 6KDUH RI YDOXHDGGHG LQ VHOHFWHG UHJLRQV RI 6ZLW]HUODQG WKH 8. DQG *HUPDQ\
)LJ *HQHUDO K\SRWKHVHV
)LJ +\SRWKHVHV E\ UHVHDUFK ILHOGV
)LJ 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW IRU WKH =XULFK &DQWRQ )LJ 5HJUHVVLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV SORW ± 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW ± DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
UHJLRQDO OHYHO )LJ 5HJUHVVLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV SORW ± 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW ± 3KDUPDFKHPLFDO
LQGXVWU\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO )LJ 5HJUHVVLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV SORW ± 6KDUH RI )LQDQFLDO (PSOR\PHQW ± %XVLQHVV 6HUYLFHV
LQGXVWU\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO
/LVW RI DFURQ\PV
%)6 %XQGHVDPW IU 6WDWLVWLN )HGHUDO 6WDWLVWLFDO 2IILFH RI 6ZLW]HUODQG
)' )LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW
*9$ *URVV YDOXHDGGHG
*'3 *URVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW
,36 ,P3HVDUDQ6KLQWHVW
//& /HYLQ/LQ&KXWHVW
2(&' 2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU (FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW
2/6 2UGLQDU\ /HDVW 6TXDUHV PHWKRG
5 ' 5HVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW
6(&2 6WDWH 6HFUHWDULDW IRU (FRQRPLF $IIDLUV RI 6ZLW]HUODQG
7)3 7RWDO IDFWRU SURGXFWLYLW\
12*$ 1RPHQFODWXUH *pQpUDOH GHV $FWLYLWpV pFRQRPLTXHV
61% 6ZLVV 1DWLRQDO %DQN
&RXQWU\ FRGHV
$7 $XVWULD
%( %HOJLXP '. 'HQPDUN ), )LQODQG ). )UDQFH '( *HUPDQ\
(' *UHHFH
,5 ,UHODQG ,7 ,WDO\
-3 -DSDQ /8 /X[HPERXUJ 1/ 1HWKHUODQGV 12 1RUZD\
37 3RUWXJDO
(6 6SDLQ 6( 6ZHGHQ
&+ 6ZLW]HUODQG 8. 8QLWHG .LQJGRP 86 8QLWHG 6WDWHV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
³,Q 6ZLW]HUODQG WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU JHQHUDWHV D FRQVLGHUDEOH VKDUH RI WKH JURVV GRPHVWLF SURG XFW 7KH FRUH IXQFWLRQ LV RIIHULQJ RU PHGLDWLQJ LQYHVWPHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV WKDW SHUPDQHQWO\ WLH IUHHO\FLUFXODWLQJ OLTXLG FDSLWDO WR UHDOFDSLWDO LQYHVWPHQWV *URZWK WKHRU\ VWDWHV WKDW HIIHFWLYH ILQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDWLRQ FUHDWHV JURZWK VWLPXOL WKDW HYHQ H[FHHG WKRVH RI WKH LQWHUPHGLDULHV JDLQV IURP LQWHUHVWV DQG FRPPLVVLRQV´
7KHVH DUH WKH ILUVW VHQWHQFHV IURP WKH 6(&2V WHQGHU RIIHU ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH 6WUXNWXUEHULFKWHU VWDWWXQJ LQ 7KLV VWXG\ LQWHQGV WR DQDO\VH DQG WR VFUXWLQL]H WKLV WKHRUHWLFDO VWDWHPHQW HP SLULFDOO\
0RWLYDWLRQ DQG DSSURDFK
7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DV SDUW RI WKH HFRQRP\
6LQFH WKH HLJKWLHV GHYHORSPHQWV LQ LQGXVWU\UHOHYDQW WHFKQRORJLHV DQG UHJXODWLRQV KDYH FRQVLG HUDEO\ H[WHQGHG WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRUV HFRQRPLF SRWHQWLDO ,Q EHWZHHQ WKLV OHG WR YHU\ G\QDPLF JURZWK LQ WKH ILQDQFLDO LQGXVWU\ DQG KDV DFFHOHUDWHG WKH VWUXFWXUDO FKDQJH WRZDUGV D VHUYLFHV EDVHG HFRQRP\ 0DQ\ SROLWLFLDQV DQG HFRQRPLVWV FRQVLGHUHG WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DV D IODJVKLS LQGXVWU\ WKDW FDQ KHOS WR FRPSHQVDWH WKH REVHUYHG GHFOLQH LQ PDQXIDFWXULQJ YDOXHDGGHG LQ :HVWHUQ HFRQRPLHV
7KH GHYHORSPHQWV LQ UHFHQW \HDUV KRZHYHU KDYH WDUQLVKHG WKH UHSXWDWLRQ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHF WRU DV D IODJVKLS LQGXVWU\ $IWHU WKH 6XESULPH FULVLV LQ WKH 86$ DQG WKH ODWHU FULVLV LQ WKH (XUR DUHD WKH SXEOLF LV LQFUHDVLQJO\ FULWLFDO WRZDUGV WKH ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV 7KLV FKDQJH RI SHUVSHFWLYH LV UHIOHFWHG LQ D SDUWO\ UDGLFDO UHWKLQNLQJ LQ SROLWLFV ,Q WKH 86$ DQG 8QLWHG .LQJGRP IRU H[DP SOH FXUUHQW KHDGV RI JRYHUQPHQW SRVWXODWHG D SROLWLFDO DJHQGD RI UHLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ )XUWKHU
&\SUXV FDQ EH FLWHG DV DQ H[DPSOH ZKHUH D UHGLPHQVLRQLQJ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU ZDV H[SOLFLW O\ FDOOHG IRU LQ WKH FRXUVH RI WKH EDLORXW $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKH SUHVVXUH RQ WKH ILQDQFLDO LQGXV WU\ KDV LQFUHDVHG GXH WR LQWHQVLILHG QDWLRQDO DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO UHJXODWRU\ UHVWUDLQWV
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
7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK
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
FRPSHWHQFHV DQG HFRQRPLF IXQFWLRQV
,Q IDFW D ZHOOIXQFWLRQLQJ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU FDQ EH FRPSDUHG WR WKDW RI WKH KHDUW LQ WKH KXPDQ ERG\ -XVW OLNH WKH KHDUW WDNHV FDUH RI WKH FRQVWDQW FLUFXODWLRQ RI EORRG WKH ILQDQFLDO V\VWHP
HDVHV WKH IORZ RI FDSLWDO LQ PRGHUQ HFRQRPLHV7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU FRQVWLWXWHV D GHFLVLYH SDUW RI WKH HFRQRPLF LQIUDVWUXFWXUH RI D FRXQWU\ ,Q GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\ ZLWKRXW DQ\ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV OLWHUDOO\ XQWKLQNDEOH
+RZHYHU WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG WKH ZD\ LW LQIOXHQFHV WKH HFRQRP\ DOVR KDV EHFRPH VXEMHFW RI FULWLFDO YLHZV $ JURZLQJ ERG\ RI UHVHDUFK KDV KLJKOLJKWHG SRWHQWLDO ULVNV HPDQDWLQJ IURP LW HVSHFLDOO\ DV WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU ³JURZV ELJ´ 6\VWHPLF ULVNV WKURXJK H[FHVVLYH SURYLVLRQ RI FUHGLW WR ILUPV PLJKW GHHSHQ EXVLQHVV F\FOHV DQG KHQFH LQFUHDVH WKH YRODWLOLW\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK 6LPLODUO\ EXVLQHVV GLVLQFHQWLYHV IRU ³WRR ELJ WR IDLO´ ILQDQFLDO SOD\HUV SRWHQWLDOO\ LQFUHDVH PDFURHFRQRPLF XQFHUWDLQW\ :KHQ D FRXQWU\ LV IORRGHG E\ PDVVLYH FDSLWDO LQIORZ WR LWV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU V\PSWRPV RI WKH IDPRXV 'XWFK GLVHDVH PD\ RFFXU )XUWKHUPRUH WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU PLJKW DEVRUE WRR PXFK VNLOOHG ODERXU WR WKH GLVDGYDQWDJH RI RWKHU KXPDQFDSLWDO LQWHQVLYH VHFWRUV DQG SRVVLEO\ WR WKH GLVDGYDQWDJH RI WKH HFRQRP\ DV D ZKROH
'LVHQWDQJOLQJ WKH PXOWLIDFHWHG UHODWLRQVKLS RI ILQDQFH DQG JURZWK LV WKH DLP RI RXU DQDO\VLV 6SHFLILFDOO\ ZH DVN KRZ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LWV VHUYLFHV DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK UHODWH LQ WKH VSHFLILF FRQWH[W RI WKH KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG HFRQRPLHV RI 2(&' FRXQWULHV
7KH DSSURDFK
)RU WKLV SXUSRVH WKH DQDO\VLV SURFHHGV DV IROORZV
,Q &KDSWHU WKH H[LVWLQJ UHVHDUFK FRQWH[W LV WUHDWHG LQ GHWDLO 7KH WKHRUHWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH GH SDUWV IURP QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK WKHRU\ DV ZH DQDO\VH WKH HIIHFW RI D GHWHUPLQDQW RI JURZWK ± WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG LWV VHUYLFHV ,Q RUGHU WR GHILQH WKHLU HIIHFW RQ JURZWK PRUH LQ GHWDLO WKH IXQGDPHQWDO IXQFWLRQV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DV ZHOO DV WKH PDMRU SRLQWV RI FULWLTXH DUH RXWOLQHG LQ GHSWK 7KH FKDSWHU FRQFOXGHV ZLWK D FRPSUHKHQVLYH UHYLHZ RI WKH PLOHVWRQH HPSLULFDO OLWHUD WXUH RQ WKH WRSLF
&KDSWHU IRFXVHV RQ WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQ RUGHU WR JLYH DQ LGHD RI WKH UHOHYDQFH RI WKH DQDO\VLV DQG UHVXOWV IRU WKH FRXQWU\ DQG LWV HFRQRP\ ,W GLVFXVVHV VWUXFWXUH DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQ ERWK WKH QDWLRQDO FRQWH[W RI GLIIHUHQW LQGXVWULHV DV ZHOO DV WKH LQWHUQD WLRQDO FRQWH[W RI WKH VDPSOH
&KDSWHU LQWURGXFHV WKH VSHFLILF UHVHDUFK VHWXS IRU WKH SUHVHQW DQDO\VLV .H\ SRLQWV DUH 2XU WHFKQLFDO VSHFLILFDWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO DOORZV IRU QRQOLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLSV RI DJJUHJDWH
HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DV D GHWHUPLQDQW RI JURZWK
:H VFUXWLQL]H VHYHUDO SRVVLEOH ZD\V KRZ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK PLJKW UHODWH ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH PXOWLSOLFLW\ RI IXQFWLRQV DQG UROHV WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU WDNHV RQ LQ KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG HFRQRPLHV
$W WKH GDWD IURQW ZH LQWHQG WR FRQWULEXWH DQ DUUD\ RI LQVLJKWV WR WKH FXUUHQW VWDWH RI UH VHDUFK )LUVWO\ ZH XVH PRUH GHWDLOHG GDWD WKDQ HDUOLHU DQDO\VHV RQ WKH WRSLF QDPHO\
GDWD DW WKH UHJLRQDO DQG VHFWRUDO OHYHO 6HFRQGO\ ZKLOH WKH PDMRULW\ RI DQDO\VHV LV EDVHG RQ GDWD LQFOXGLQJ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV WKH SUHVHQW DQDO\VLV LV RQH RI IHZ FRQFHQWUDWLQJ RQ 2(&' FRXQWULHV
,Q &KDSWHU WKH UHVXOWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ D VWDQGDUGL]HG ZD\ VWDWLQJ WKH WUDQVPLVVLRQ FKDQQHO K\SRWKHVLV DQG HVWLPDWLRQ UHVXOW IRU HDFK VSHFLILF FRPELQDWLRQ RI GDWD DQG WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVLGHU DWLRQ &KDSWHU VXPPDUL]HV DQG FRQFOXGHV RQ WKH PDMRU UHVXOWV RI WKH SDSHU
7KH PDLQ ERG\ RI WKH SDSHU LV IROORZHG E\ D FRPSUHKHQVLYH DSSHQGL[ LQFOXGLQJ WKH HQWLUH ERG\
RI HVWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV
7KH RULJLQ RI WKLV SRSXODU TXRWH LV XQFOHDU DPRQJ RWKHUV ( 'DODGLHU )UHQFK SULPH PLQLVWHU
)LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW 2XWSXW
JURZWK 3RVLWLYH OLQHDU
3RVLWLYH EXW GHFUHDVLQJ VLJQLILFDQFH
4XDGUDWLF VKRZLQJ PD[LPXP
)UDPHZRUN DQG GHILQLWLRQV
7KH SULQFLSDO UHODWLRQVKLS DV GLVFXVVHG LQ UHVHDUFK
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
+RZHYHU WKH OLJKWHU OLQHV UHSUHVHQW WKH UHVXOWV RI \RXQJHU VWXGLHV LQ WKH SDVW GHFDGH UHSUH VHQWHG E\ (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW] $UFDQG %HUNHV DQG 3DQL]]D DV ZHOO DV
&HFFKHWWL DQG .KDUURXEL 7KH\ H[WHQGHG WKH HFRQRPHWULF PRGHOV EDVHG RQ PRUH FULWLFDO WKHRUHWLFDO JURXQG ± WKHLU SRLQW ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW PLJKW EH H[DJJHUDWHG DQG DW VRPH GH JUHH HLWKHU GHFUHDVH LQ VLJQLILFDQFH RU HYHQ VKRZ D PD[LPXP EH\RQG ZKLFK DGGLWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW LV WUXO\ KDUPIXO WR RXWSXW JURZWK
7KH SUHVHQW VWXG\ E\ %$.%$6(/ SXUVXHV LWV DSSURDFK IROORZLQJ WKH ODWWHU VWUDQG RI OLWHUDWXUH DQG LQWHQGV WR ILQG PRUH GHWDLOHG UHVXOWV ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH TXHVWLRQ LI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW LV UDWKHU D EXUGHQ RU D SLOODU IRU WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
:KHUH WR ILQG WKH LPSDFW RQ WKH HFRQRP\
(YDOXDWLQJ WKH LPSDFW RI D VSHFLILF LQGXVWU\ DV SDUW RI WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ XVXDOO\ PHDQV WR TXDQWLI\ LW E\ LWV VKDUH LQ WKH RYHUDOO HPSOR\PHQW DQG LQ WKH DJJUHJDWH JURVV YDOXHDGGHG
*9$ )ROORZLQJ WKLV DSSURDFK WKH JHQHUDOO\ FRQVLGHUDEOH VKDUH LQ WKH *9$ WKH DERYHDYHUDJH ZDJH OHYHO DQG WKH DW OHDVW WHPSRUDULO\ KLJK FRQWULEXWLRQ WR DJJUHJDWH JURZWK DUH HYLGHQFH RI WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH ILQDQFLDO LQGXVWU\ 6XFK DQ DQDO\VLV KRZHYHU RQO\ FDSWXUHV D VPDOO VKDUH RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRUV WUXH FRQWULEXWLRQ
7KH WKHRUHWLFDO LGHD EHFRPHV FOHDU ZKHQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV FRPSDUHG WR WKH HQHUJ\ VHFWRU ,Q ERWK VHFWRUV WKH HFRQRPLF FRQWULEXWLRQ LV JHQHUDWHG LQ WKH PRPHQW RI XWLOL]DWLRQ RI WKH LQ IUDVWUXFWXUH WKH\ SURYLGH UDWKHU WKDQ LQ WKH PRPHQW RI SURGXFWLRQ ,Q FDVH RI WKH HQHUJ\ VHFWRU LWV VKDUH LQ WKH 6ZLVV *'3 DPRXQWV WR MXVW DURXQG WZR SHU FHQW WKLV PHDQV 7KH HQHUJ\ VHF
)LJ 3UREOHP GHILQLWLRQ
6RXUFH %$.%$6(/
WRU WDNHV FDUH RI WKH FRXQWU\ZLGH VXSSO\ ZLWK HOHFWULFLW\ (FRQRPLF DFWLYLW\ ZLWKRXW WKLV LQGLV SHQVDEOH LQSXW IDFWRU LV XQLPDJLQDEOH
+HQFH WKH IRFXV OLHV RQ WKH VXSSO\ VLGH 7KH EHWWHU WKH TXDOLW\ WKH EHWWHU WKH SULFH SHUIRUPDQFH UDWLR RI LWV SURGXFWV DQG WKH PRUH UHOLDEOH LWV FRQWLQXHG SURYLVLRQ WKH JUHDWHU WKH FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV DQG WKH SURGXFWLRQ SRWHQWLDO RI WKH HFRQRP\ DV D ZKROH 6XFK HIIHFWV DUH FDOOHG SRVLWLYH H[WHUQDOLWLHV
7KH HFRQRPLF LPSDFW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU FDQ EH FRPSDUHG WR WKDW RI WKH HQHUJ\ VHFWRU ,Q GHHG WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU KDV D PXFK KLJKHU YDOXHDGGHG DQG HPSOR\PHQW VKDUH WKDQ WKH HQ HUJ\ VHFWRU %XW MXVW DV WKH HQHUJ\ VHFWRU WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DOVR FRQWULEXWHV FRQVLGHUDEO\
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
1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH WRWDO HIIHFW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU FDQ DOVR LQFOXGH QHJDWLYH H[WHUQDOLWLHV IRU WKH HFRQRP\ DV H[WHQVLYHO\ GLVFXVVHG LQ &KDSWHU
'HILQLWLRQ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG LWV VHUYLFHV
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± ZKLFK LQ 6ZLW]HUODQG DPRXQWV WR D FRQVLGHUDEOH VKDUH
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
,Q RXU VWXG\ WKH SULPDU\ IRFXV OLHV RQ WKH VHFRQG SDUW RI WKH GHILQLWLRQ WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU VHUYLFHV 2QH UHDVRQ LV WKDW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI SRVLWLYH H[WHUQDOLWLHV PLJKW EH IDU PRUH LPSRUWDQW WKDQ WKDW RI ILQDQFLDO FRPSDQLHV %XW XOWLPDWHO\ WKH HIIHFW RI H[WHUQDOLWLHV LV OHVV FOHDU DQG KDUGHU WR REVHUYH WKDQ WKH IRUPHU VKDUH RI WKH WRWDO HIIHFW UHTXLULQJ DGYDQFHG PHWKRGV IRU WKHLU HYDOXDWLRQ
7KH UHVHDUFK FRQWH[W
7KH VWXG\ ³7KH )LQDQFLDO 6HFWRU DQG WKH (FRQRP\ D 3LOODU RU D %XUGHQ"´ IRFXVHV RQ WKH UHOD WLRQVKLS RI DJJUHJDWH HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DV RQH RI LWV GHWHUPLQDQWV ,Q WKH IROORZLQJ D VKRUW VXPPDU\ WUHDWV WKH UHOHYDQW DVSHFWV RI JURZWK WKHRU\DQG VKRZV KRZ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQIOXHQFHV JURZWK LQ DOO UHOHYDQW IDFHWV
7KH QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK PRGHO
,Q WKH SDVW \HDUV HFRQRPLFV KDV H[WHQGHG DQG GHYHORSHG LWV XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI JURZWK (DUO\ H[RJHQRXV JURZWK WKHRU\
7KH DLP RI WKH HDUO\ QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK PRGHOV ZDV WR GHFRPSRVH WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH EDVLF IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ RQ HFRQRPLF JURZWK QDPHO\ FDSLWDO DQG ODERXU (DUO\ HPSLULFDO UHVHDUFK KRZHYHU LQGLFDWHG WKDW FDSLWDO DQG ODERXU DORQH FRXOG QRW H[SODLQ JURZWK FRPSOHWHO\ 6RORZ 6RPH JURZWK RFFXUUHG IURP RWKHU VRXUFHV WKDQ MXVW WKH TXDQWLW\ RI WKH EDVLF SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV
)XUWKHU GHYHORSPHQWV DWWHPSWHG WR H[SODLQ WKLV ODUJH UHVLGXDO VKDUH RI JURZWK LQ IRUP RI VRPH WKLQJ RWKHU WKDQ WKH TXDQWLW\ RI WKH PDLQ SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV 7RWDO IDFWRU SURGXFWLYLW\ 7)3 ZDV LQWURGXFHG LQ RUGHU WR FDSWXUH IDFWRUV RQ JURZWK WKDW SULPDULO\ LQIOXHQFH WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKH SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV 6RORZ 7KH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI QHZ WHFKQRORJLHV ZDV FRQVLGHUHG WKH PDLQ VRXUFH RI LQFUHDVLQJ SURGXFWLYLW\ +RZHYHU WKLV VLPSOH FRQFHSW RI 7)3 FRXOG QRW H[
SODLQ GLIIHULQJ ORQJWHUP JURZWK SDWKV LQ GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV 3DUWLFXODUO\ WKH IDFWRUV H[SODLQLQJ WRWDO IDFWRU SURGXFWLYLW\ RU WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI QHZ WHFKQRORJLHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZHUH H[RJHQRXV WR WKHVH PRGHOV
(QGRJHQRXV JURZWK WKHRU\
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
2SHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ RI HQGRJHQRXV JURZWK PRGHOV 5HGXFHG IRUP DSSURDFK
7KH QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK PRGHO LV JHQHUDOO\ KDUG WR RSHUDWLRQDOL]H IRU HPSLULFDO UHVHDUFK %H VLGHV PHWKRGRORJLFDO SUREOHPV WKH PDLQ UHDVRQ LV WKDW SK\VLFDO FDSLWDO LV EDUHO\ TXDQWLILDEOH DQG WKDW H[LVWLQJ GDWD LV KDUGO\ FRPSDUDEOH DW WKH LQWHUUHJLRQDO QRW WR PHQWLRQ DW WKH LQWHUQD WLRQDO OHYHO 7KH UHGXFHG IRUP RI JURZWK PRGHOV ZDV DQ DQVZHU WR GHPXU LQ WKLV FRQWH[W 7KH QHFHVVDU\ DVVXPSWLRQ ZDV WKDW WKH TXDQWLWLHV RI FDSLWDO DQG RI ODERXU FDQ WKHPVHOYHV EH H[
SODLQHG E\ DGGLWLRQDO UHVLGXDO YDULDEOHV SDUWO\ DOVR E\ WKH VDPH HQGRJHQRXV IDFWRUV DV 7)3 +HQFH FDSLWDO DQG ODERXU ZHUH QR ORQJHU QHFHVVDU\ H[SOLFLW YDULDEOHV LQ JURZWK PRGHOV
7KH QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK WKHRU\ LV H[WHQVLYHO\ GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH 6RORZ $UURZ 0DQNLZ 5RPHU :HLO 5RPHU *URVVPDQ XQG +HOSPDQ $JKLRQ XQG +RZLWW %DUUR &RU WULJKW ,Q %$.%$6(/ D YHU\ VLPLODU DSSURDFK LV WDNHQ DQG WKH HYROXWLRQ RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK WKHRU\
ZLWK VSHFLILF UHOHYDQFH WR WKH DSSURDFK XVHG LV RXWOLQHG LQ GHSWK
,Q WKH ORQJ UXQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ RXWSXW WKH TXDQWLW\ RI ODERXU DQG WKH TXDQWLWL\ RI FDSLWDO DUH GHWHUPLQHG VLPXOWDQH RXVO\ (VWLPDWLQJ WKH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ FDQ FRQVHTXHQWO\ OHDG WR D V\VWHPDWLF VLPXOWDQHLW\ ELDV
7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK PRGHOV
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
)XQFWLRQV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
7UDGLWLRQDOO\ FDSLWDO PDUNHWV DUH DVVXPHG WR EH IULFWLRQOHVV ,QFOXGLQJ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQWR WKH JURZWK PRGHOV LV SRLQWOHVV XQGHU WKLV DVVXPSWLRQ DV WKHUH LV QR GHPDQG IRU WKH VHUYLFHV RI FUHGLW LQVWLWXWHV LQVXUHUV RU RWKHU UHODWHG FRPSDQLHV :KLOH WKH DVVXPSWLRQ LV XVHIXO IRU FRQ VWUXFWLQJ OHDQ WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUNV LW LV QDWXUDOO\ D VLPSOLILFDWLRQ ,Q IDFW DV WZR RI PDQ\
.XQW DQG /HYLQH FODLP WKDW WKHUH LV D YDULHW\ RI IULFWLRQV RQ FDSLWDO PDUNHWV WKDW ³PRWL YDWH WKH HPHUJHQFH RI ILQDQFLDO FRQWUDFWV PDUNHWV DQG LQWHUPHGLDULHV´ .XQW DQG /HYLQH ,Q RUGHU WR WU\ DQG PDNH VHQVH RXW RI WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI FDSLWDO PDUNHWV D EULHI VXP PDU\ RI PDUNHW IULFWLRQV DQG EDVLF IXQFWLRQV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV SURYLGHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ ,Q HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ IXQGDPHQWDO IXQFWLRQV DUH DVFULEHG WR WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU7KH PRVW SRSX ODU RQHV DUH HJ 5HKNXJHO DQG 6FKLQGHO .XQW DQG /HYLQH /HYLQH
7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI WHUPV DQG YROXPHV 'LYHUVLILFDWLRQ RI ULVN
&ROOHFWLRQ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ PRQLWRULQJ RI LQYHVWPHQWV DQG H[HUWLRQ RI FRUSRUDWH JRYHUQ DQFH
7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI WHUPV DQG YROXPHV
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³FDVK´ +RZHYHU HVSHFLDOO\ KLJK UHWXUQ LQYHVWPHQWV WHQG WR UHTXLUH ORQJWHUP FDSLWDO FRPPLWPHQW 7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG LWV LQVWLWXWLRQV KDUPRQL]H WKHVH GLIIHULQJ LQWHUHVWV E\
PDNLQJ OLTXLG IXQGV VXFK DV GHPDQG GHSRVLWV ERQGV DQG HTXLW\ DYDLODEOH IRU ORQJWHUP LQ YHVWPHQWV WHUP WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ IXQFWLRQ 5HKNXJHO DQG 6FKLQGHO
,QGHHG PDQ\ RI WKHVH IXQFWLRQV DUH QRW H[FOXVLYHO\ GLVFXVVHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH IXQFWLRQV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU EXW DUH SDUW RI WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKH IXQFWLRQV RI PRQH\ ZLWKLQ DQ HFRQRP\
'LYHUVLILFDWLRQ RI ULVN
7KH DYHUDJH VDYHU LV ULVN DYHUVH EXW IDFHV WKH IDFW WKDW KLJKUHWXUQ LQYHVWPHQWV DUH RQ DYHU DJH ULVNLHU WKDQ WKRVH ZLWK ORZ UHWXUQV $V ILQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDULHV JUDQW FUHGLWV WR D PXOWLSOLFLW\
RI ILUPV DQG PDQDJH D ODUJH QXPEHU RI LQYHVWPHQWV VLQJOH GHIDXOWV GR QRW EULQJ DERXW D PDMRU ULVN IRU WKH ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQ DQG LQ WXUQ WR LWV FOLHQWV VDYLQJV +HQFH WKLV ULVN GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ DOORZV SURILWLQJ IURP KLJKUHWXUQKLJKULVN LQYHVWPHQWV GHVSLWH WKH VDYHUV ULVN DYHUVLRQ .XQW DQG /HYLQH /HYLQH
&ROOHFWLRQ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG PRQLWRULQJ RI LQYHVWPHQWV
)RU WKH LQGLYLGXDO DYHUDJH VDYHU LW ZRXOG EH DQ HQRUPRXV LI QRW LPSRVVLEOH HIIRUW WR FROOHFW WKH QHFHVVDU\ LQIRUPDWLRQ RI ILUPV LWV OHDGHUV DQG WKH UHOHYDQW PDUNHW LQ RUGHU WR DFKLHYH DQ RSWL PDO DOORFDWLRQ IRU KLV RU KHU VDYLQJV WR VSHFLILF LQYHVWPHQWV 'XH WR WKH VSHFLDOLVDWLRQ DOORZHG E\
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
%HQFLYHQJD 6PLWK 6XVVPDQ
)XUWKHU GLVFXVVLRQV RI EDVLF IXQFWLRQV DQG WUDQVPLVVLRQ FKDQQHOV WR DJJUHJDWH JURZWK
/HYLQH DV ZHOO DV .XQW DQG /HYLQH GLVFXVV WKH FRQFUHWH OLQNV EHWZHHQ D VHW RI IXQFWLRQV DQG LPSRUWDQW JURZWK GHWHUPLQDQWV LQ GHSWK DQG DGG IXUWKHU GHWDLOHG DUJXPHQWV WR RXU GLVFXVVLRQ ,Q )LJXUH ZH KDYH YLVXDOL]HG WKHLU GLVFXVVLRQ 7KH IXQFWLRQV DUH OLVWHG LQ WKH OLJKW ER[HV WKH JURZWK GHWHUPLQDQWV LQ WKH GDUN ER[HV
,QIRUPDWLRQ IRU FDSLWDO DOORFDWLRQ
&RUSRUDWH JRYHUQ DQFH PRQLWRULQJ RI LQYHVWPHQWV
5LVN PDQDJHPHQW
3RROLQJ VDYLQJV
(DVLQJ H[FKDQJH RI JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV
&DSLWDO LQYHVWPHQW
6DYLQJV
,QQRYDWLRQ
%\ UHGXFLQJ FRVWV RI DFTXLU LQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ
+XPDQ FDSLWDO /DERXU
,PSURYH FDSL WDO DOORFDWLRQ
&DSLWDO HIILFLHQF\
,QFUHDVH ZLOOLQJQHVV WR LQYHVW VDYLQJV
%\ SURWHFWLQJ VKDUHKROGHUµV ULJKWV
%\ (DVLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ DV\PPHWULHV
%\ UHGXFLQJ WUDQVDFWLRQ FRVWV
%\ GLYHUVLI\LQJ ULVNV
)LJ 7UDQVPLVVLRQV FKDQQHOV EHWZHHQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG JURZWK GHWHUPL QDQWV
6RXUFH .XQW DQG /HYLQH /HYLQH %$.%$6(/
$QRWKHU SRLQW WR EH FRQVLGHUHG LV WKDW GLIIHUHQW HFRQRPLF DFWLYLWLHV GR KDYH GLIIHULQJ ILQDQFLQJ QHHGV )RU LQVWDQFH ERWK ILUPV DQG LQYHVWRUV IDFH ULVNV ZKHQ DOORFDWLQJ FDSLWDO WR 5 ' SURMHFWV ZLWK XQFHUWDLQ VXFFHVV +RZHYHU ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV FDQ PDQDJH ULVNV HIIHFWLYHO\ LQ IRUP RI GLYHUVLILHG SRUWIROLRV 7KDW ZD\ LQYHVWPHQWV LQ 5 ' EHFRPH PRUH DWWUDFWLYH IRU ULVNDYHUVH LQYHVWRUV .LQJ DQG /HYLQH 7KLV LGHD ZLOO EH SLFNHG XS LQ WKH HPSLULFDO &KDSWHU DQG WHVWHG HFRQRPHWULFDOO\
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
7RR PXFK RI D JRRG WKLQJ"
7KH SRSXODU GLVFXVVLRQ GHYHORSHG VRPH VFHSWLFLVP DERXW WKH HIIHFWV RI D ODUJH ILQDQFLDO VHF WRU 3DUWLFXODUO\ ZLWK UHFHQW FULVHV WULJJHUHG E\ HYHQWV LQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU ± WKH EXUVWLQJ RI WKH 'RW&RP%XEEOH WKH HFRQRPLF GRZQWXUQ RI DQG WKH RQJRLQJ FULVLV LQ WKH (XUR DUHD ± WKLV GLVFXVVLRQ JDLQHG VWHDP DJDLQ 6FKRODUV KDYH LQFUHDVLQJO\ DVVLPLODWHG WKLV GLVFXVVLRQ
DQG SRLQWHG DW ULVNV WKDW ILQDQFLDO DFWLYLWLHV PLJKW EULQJ DERXW 0RVW RI WKH FULWLFLVP LV OHVV EDVHG RQ D FRPSOHWH WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHO RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU EXW UDWKHU RQ HPSLULFDO REVHUYDWLRQV 7KH PRVW SRSXODU SRLQWV RI FULWLFLVP DUH WKH IROORZLQJ
6\VWHPLF ULVNV DQG YRODWLOLW\
³7RR ELJ WR IDLO´GLVLQFHQWLYH %UDLQ GUDLQ
'XWFK GLVHDVH
6\VWHPLF ULVNV DQG YRODWLOLW\
9RODWLOLW\ LQ HFRQRPLF JURZWK H[SUHVVHG E\ GLVWLQFW EXVLQHVV F\FOHV LV FRQQHFWHG WR FRQVLG HUDEOH VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF FRVWV (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW] SURSRVH WKDW D WRR VWURQJ ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW SRWHQWLDOO\ UHLQIRUFHV JURZWK YRODWLOLW\ ,Q IDFW LQ D UHODWLYHO\ HDUO\ VWDJH D
³PRUH´ RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW PLWLJDWHV YRODWLOLW\ +RZHYHU WKH DXWKRUV VKRZ WKDW ZKHQ ³3UL YDWH &UHGLW E\ GHSRVLW PRQH\ EDQNV UHODWLYH WR WKH *URVV 'RPHVWLF 3URGXFW *'3´ H[FHHGV D FHUWDLQ WKUHVKROG DGGLWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DJJUDYDWHV EXVLQHVV F\FOHV ³&RXQWULHV LQ ZKLFK ILUPV KDYH VXIILFLHQWO\ KLJK GHEW HTXLW\ UDWLRV DQG LQ ZKLFK ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DUH KLJKO\
OHYHUDJHG PD\ WKHPVHOYHV LQYLWH VKRFNV´ (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW] 7KH UDWLRQDOH LV WKDW LQ WKH HYHQW RI DQ H[RJHQRXV VKRFN EDQNV RI WKHVH FRXQWULHV DUH HVSHFLDOO\ SXW XQGHU SUHVVXUH WR FXW WKH YROXPH RI FUHGLWV JUDQWHG WR ILUPV &RQVHTXHQWO\ HFRQRPLF GRZQWXUQV DUH PRUH VHYHUH WKDQ LQ OHVV LQGHEWHG HFRQRPLHV 7KH DXWKRUV ORFDWH WKH FULWLFDO OHYHO DW DERXW SHU FHQW RI 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR *'3 (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW]
³7RR ELJ WR IDLO´GLVLQFHQWLYH
(VSHFLDOO\ WKH ODWHVW FULVLV SURYLGHV WKH JURXQG IRU WKH VHFRQG SRLQW RI FULWLTXH $V D FRQVH TXHQFH RI WKH 6XESULPH DQG WKH RQJRLQJ (XUR DUHD FULVLV JRYHUQPHQWV JUDQWHG EDLORXWV DQG JXDUDQWHHV IRU OLDELOLWLHV WR ODUJH V\VWHPLF ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR DYRLG D SRWHQWLDO EUHDN GRZQ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO V\VWHPV 7KLV KRZHYHU LV LUUHFRQFLODEOH ZLWK PDUNHW HFRQRP\ SULQ FLSOHV 8QVXFFHVVIXO RU IDLOHG ILUPV RXJKW WR YDQLVK IURP WKH PDUNHWV
,I ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV LQWHJUDWH H[SHFWDWLRQV IRU EDLORXWV LQWR WKHLU EXVLQHVV VWUDWHJ\ WKH\ PD\
LQFUHDVH WKHLU ULVNV EH\RQG WKH GHJUHH RI D FRPSDQ\ DFWLQJ RQ D FRPSHWLWLYH PDUNHW DQG SDVV RQ WKH FRVWV UHODWHG WR WKHVH DGGLWLRQDO ULVNV WR VRFLHW\ 7KDW ZD\ WKH\ V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ FUHDWH WKH EDVLV IRU WKH QH[W FULVLV HJ (QQLV DQG 0DOHN 7KLV ³7RR ELJ WR IDLO´GLVLQFHQWLYH FUHDWHV LWVHOI D V\VWHPLF ULVN DQG LV FORVHO\ UHODWHG WR WKH DERYH GLVFXVVHG SUREOHP RI JURZWK YRODWLOLW\
%UDLQ GUDLQ
7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG WKH UHDO HFRQRP\FRPSHWH IRU VFDUFH UHVRXUFHV 7KDW FRXQWV HVSHFLDOO\
RQ WKH PDUNHW IRU VNLOOHG ODERXU ³ZH DUH WKURZLQJ PRUH DQG PRUH RI RXU UHVRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH FUHDP RI RXU \RXWK LQWR ILQDQFLDO DFWLYLWLHV UHPRWH IURP WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI JRRGV DQG VHU YLFHV >«@´ 7RELQ +HQFH WKHVH SHRSOH PD\ EH PLVVLQJ LQ DFDGHPLF UHVHDUFK RU RWKHU SDUWV RI WKH HFRQRP\ 7KH DUJXPHQW LV XQGHUOLQHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW LQQRYDWLRQ RIWHQWLPHV GH SHQGV RQ WKH LGHDV RI D YHU\ VPDOO JURXS RI SHRSOH &HFFKHWWL DQG .KDUURXEL H[DPLQH KRZ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG LWV JURZWK UHODWH WR SURGXFWLYLW\ JURZWK RI WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
)URP WKHLU UHVXOWV WKH\ ILJXUH WKDW WKH DWWUDFWLYHQHVV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU PLJKW LQ IDFW NHHS UHOHYDQW UHVRXUFHV DZD\ IURP WKH UHDO HFRQRP\
'XWFK GLVHDVH
,Q HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ WKH 'XWFK 'LVHDVH GHVFULEHV WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH LQFUHPHQWDO H[SORLWD WLRQ RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV DQG WKH GHFOLQH LQ PDQXIDFWXULQJ YDOXHDGGHG LQ WKH VDPH HFRQRP\
7KH UHDO HFRQRP\ LV GHILQHG DV WKH HQWLUHW\ RI HFRQRPLF VHFWRUV EXW WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
7KH LQWHQVLI\LQJ H[SRUW RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV FDXVHV D UHYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH ORFDO FXUUHQF\ ZKDW LQ WXUQ WUDQVODWHV LQWR D UHGXFWLRQ LQ FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV RI WKH UHPDLQLQJ PDQXIDFWXULQJ FRPSDQLHV HJ &RUGRQ DQG 1HDU\ =UFKHU
7KH LQLWLDO VWLPXOXV IRU WKH ³GLVHDVH´ FDQ DOVR KDYH RWKHU RULJLQV WKDQ PDVVLYH QDWXUDO UHVRXUFH H[SRUWDWLRQ &RUGRQ DQG 1HDU\ 6LQFH WKH RQJRLQJ FULVLV LQ WKH (XUR DUHD IRU LQVWDQFH ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV RI VPDOO VXFFHVVIXO FRXQWULHV ZLWK LQGHSHQGHQW FXUUHQFLHV DQG ORZ SXEOLF GHEW OHYHOV ZHUH IORRGHG E\ IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO LQ VHDUFK IRU D ³VDIH KDYHQ´ ± DV LW KDV RFFXUUHG LQ 6ZLW ]HUODQG =UFKHU 7KLV GHYHORSPHQW FDQ UHVXOW LQ D UHOHYDQW FRQVWUDLQW IRU WKH EXVLQHVV RI SRWHQWLDOO\ FRPSHWLWLYH H[SRUWRULHQWHG VHFWRUV DQG LI SHUVLVWHQW WULJJHU D IDUUHDFKLQJ UH VWUXFWXULQJ RI WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ 6XFK UHVWUXFWXULQJ FDQ JR DORQJ ZLWK WKH LUUHYRFDEOH ORVV RI FULWLFDO NQRZKRZ DQG DFWXDOO\ KDPSHU WKH FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV RI WKH HFRQRP\ DV D ZKROH
)LQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG JURZWK
7KHVH IRXU SRLQWV RI FULWLFLVP 6\VWHPLF ULVNV DQG YRODWLOLW\ WKH ³7RR ELJ WR IDLO´
GLVLQFHQWLYH WKH %UDLQ GUDLQ DQG WKH 'XWFK GLVHDVH WHQG WR KDYH RQH DVSHFW LQ FRP PRQ DOO ILQGLQJV GRFXPHQW WKDW WKH QHJDWLYH LPSDFW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU WHQGV WR EHFRPH PRUH UHOHYDQW LI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU RU FUXFLDO SDUWV RI LW JURZV ELJ 7KLV FRPPRQ NH\ UHVXOW WKDW WKHUH PLJKW EH ³WRR PXFK RI D JRRG WKLQJ´ KDV EHHQ WKH PDMRU SRLQW RI RULHQWDWLRQ LQ UH VHDUFK RQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQ SDVW \HDUV
$ ZHOOIXQFWLRQLQJ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU KRZHYHU LV WR PLQLPLVH PDUNHW IULFWLRQV DQG HDVH FRQVWUDLQWV IDFHG E\ ILUPV DQG KRXVHKROGV LQ RUGHU WR IRVWHU HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\ 7KH IXQFWLRQV RI WUDQV IRUPDWLRQ RI WHUPV DQG YROXPHV RI GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ RI ULVN RI H[DQWH FROOHFWLRQ RI LQIRU PDWLRQ DQG RI PRQLWRULQJ RI LQYHVWPHQWV DUH YLWDO IRU WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ ,Q GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\ ZLWKRXW D ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU WKDW IXOILOV WKHVH IXQGDPHQWDO IXQFWLRQV LV OLWHUDOO\ XQWKLQNDEOH %XW WKHUH PLJKW EH GLPLQLVKLQJ HIIHFWV RI HYHU PRUH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ GLYHU VLILFDWLRQ DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ FROOHFWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH RQFH WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV ZHOO GHYHORSHG DG GLWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV PLJKW SURYLGH VPDOOHU EHQHILWV WKDQ DW DQ HDUOLHU VWDJH RI GHYHORS PHQW
%RWK WKH IXQFWLRQV DV ZHOO DV ULVNV HPDQDWLQJ IURP D ³WRR ELJ´ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU FDQ EH LQWHJUDWHG LQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK PRGHO 2QH ZD\ WR VHH WKLV LV WKDW WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQIOXHQFHV WKH DYDLODEOH TXDQWLWLHV RI WKH EDVLF SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV QDPHO\ FDSLWDO (J EDQNV WKDW DGHTXDWHO\
IXOILO WKH ILQDQFLDOVHFWRU IXQFWLRQV FRQYLQFH VDYHUV WR GHSRVLW WKHLU VDYLQJV LQ WKHLU EDQN DF FRXQWV ,Q WXUQ WKHVH VDYLQJV LQFUHDVH WKH FDSLWDO DYDLODEOH IRU ILUPV¶ LQYHVWPHQWV ,Q IDFW FRXQWULHV ZLWK LQHIIHFWLYH EDQNLQJ V\VWHPV PLJKW VXIIHU IURP VDYHUV NHHSLQJ PRQH\ ³XQGHU WKH PDWWUHVV´ 0RUHRYHU ILQDQFLDOVHFWRU VHUYLFHV KHOS WR LQFUHDVH WKH WRWDO IDFWRU SURGXFWLYLW\ 7)3 LQ DQ HFRQRP\ (J LI EDQNV VXFFHVVIXOO\ DOORFDWH FDSLWDO WR WKH PRVW SURILWDEOH LQYHVWPHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV WKLV WUDQVODWHV LQWR D KLJKHU SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKH HFRQRP\ DV D ZKROH
$OVR FRQFHUQLQJ WKH SRLQWV RI FULWLTXH WKH WRWDO IDFWRU SURGXFWLYLW\ LV RQ IRFXV ,I ³WRR ELJ´
EDQNV LQFUHDVH WKHLU LQYHVWPHQW ULVNV WKDW LW H[SHFWV WR EH FRYHUHG E\ SXEOLF EDLORXWV EH\RQG FRPSHWLWLYHPDUNHW OHYHOV SRWHQWLDO VXEVHTXHQW PDFURHFRQRPLF FULVHV FDQ JR DORQJ ZLWK SHU PDQHQW ODUJHVFDOH GHSUHFLDWLRQV GHSUHVVLQJ WKH DJJUHJDWH SURGXFWLYLW\ 6LPLODUO\ EUDLQ GUDLQ DQG WKH 'XWFK GLVHDVH FDQ EH YLHZHG DV WR GDPSHQ WKH WRWDO IDFWRU SURGXFWLYLW\ 2YHUDOO WKHUH LV VXEVWDQWLDO VXSSRUW WR FRQVLGHU WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DV D SRZHUIXO GHWHUPLQDQW RI JURZWK LQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO IUDPHZRUN
7KH SXEOLFDWLRQ 7KH (FRQRPLVW ILUVW XVHG WKH WHUP 'XWFK 'LVHDVH 1RY LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI DQ DUWLFOH RQ WKH GHWULPHQWDO HIIHFW RI QDWXUDO JDV H[SRUWV RQ WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ VHFWRU LQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV DW WKDW WLPH
(PSLULFDO UHVHDUFK RQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG JURZWK
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
7KH QLQHWLHV OLWHUDWXUH
7KH HDUO\ HPSLULFDO UHVHDUFK FDQ EH JURVVO\ LGHQWLILHG ZLWK WKH ZRUN LQLWLDWHG E\ /HYLQH DQG IHOORZ UHVHDUFKHUV LQ WKH QLQHWLHV 7ZR DPRQJ WKH PRVW LQIOXHQWLDO SXEOLFDWLRQV LQ WKH ILHOG DUH WKRVH E\ .LQJ DQG /HYLQH E\ %HFN /HYLQH DQG /RD\]D DV ZHOO DV 'H *UHJRULR DQG *XLGRWWL
:LWKLQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH RI WKH QLQHWLHV WKHUH KDV EHHQ D FRQVHQVXV DPRQJ VFKRODUV RYHU WKH SRVL WLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ D ODUJH ZHOOGHYHORSHG ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK /RRNLQJ EDFN LQ WKLV VWUDQG RI UHVHDUFK PRVW VWXGLHV VHH D SRVLWLYHOLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHO RSPHQW DQG JURZWK +HQFH WKHLU UHVXOWV ZHUH RSWLPLVWLF 7KH ELJJHU WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV WKH PRUH WKH HFRQRP\ EHQHILWV DV D ZKROH
.LQJ DQG /HYLQH VWXG\ WKH ILQDQFHJURZWK UHODWLRQVKLS DQG WZR RI LWV PDLQ WUDQVPLVVLRQ FKDQQHOV QDPHO\ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI ILQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV IRU WKH UDWH RI SK\VLFDO FDSLWDO DFFXPXOD WLRQ DQG LPSURYHPHQWV LQ WKH SK\VLFDO FDSLWDO HIILFLHQF\ )RU WKHLU FURVVFRXQWU\ DQDO\VLV WKH\
XVH D ODUJH VDPSOH RI FRXQWULHV IRU WKH SHULRG IURP WR )URP WKHLU HVWLPDWLRQ UHVXOWV WKH\ FRQFOXGH WKDW WKHUH H[LVWV D SRVLWLYH OLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ILQDQFH DQG JURZWK
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
.LQJ DQG /HYLQH DV ZHOO DV %HFN /HYLQH DQG /RD\]D DQG IXUWKHU VFKRODUV KRZ HYHU ZHUH FULWLFL]HG IRU VHYHUDO DVSHFWV )LUVWO\ WKH\ WHQGHG WR HPSOR\ UDWKHU VLPSOH PHWKRGV DQG SDUWO\ GLG QRW XVH GDWD VHWV ZLWK WHPSRUDO YDULDWLRQ ,Q JHQHUDO WKHLU UHVXOWV UHPDLQHG IDLUO\
KRPRJHQRXV LQ SDUW GXH WR WKHLU KRPRJHQRXV PHWKRGV
6HFRQGO\ .LQJ DQG /HYLQH DUH KDUGO\ FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH SRVVLEOH GUDZEDFNV DIIHFWLQJ WKHLU ZRUN DQG WKHLU UHVXOWV )RU H[DPSOH 'H *UHJRULR DQG *XLGRWWL SRLQW RXW WKH SRVVL ELOLW\ RI DQ HQGRJHQHLW\ SUREOHP DIIHFWLQJ WKHLU PDLQ YDULDEOH 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR *'3 DGYLVLQJ WR ³LQWHUSUHW WKH UHJUHVVLRQ UHVXOWV DV LQGLFDWLYH RI EURDG FRUUHODWLRQ´ $OVR 5DMDQ DQG =LQJDOHV DUJXH WKDW ³LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI D ZHOODFFHSWHG WKHRU\ RI JURZWK WKH OLVW RI SRWHQWLDO RPLWWHG YDULDEOHV WKDW ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU GHYHORSPHQW PLJKW EH D SUR[\ IRU LV ODUJH´ 5DMDQ DQG
=LQJDOHV
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± LH WKH 2(&' FRXQWULHV 7KLV ZRXOG RE YLRXVO\ KDYH LPSRUWDQW SROLF\ LPSOLFDWLRQV DV LW ZRXOG PHDQ WKDW PDWHULDO SURGXFHG E\ .LQJ DQG /HYLQH DQG %HFN /HYLQH DQG /RD\]D RYHU VHYHUDO GHFDGHV PD\ QRW EH DV UHOHYDQW DV RULJLQDOO\ WKRXJKW IRU SROLF\ DGYLFH LQ GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV
7DNLQJ WKH FULWLTXH LQWR DFFRXQW
,Q WKH OLWHUDWXUH DIWHU WKH WXUQ RI WKH PLOOHQQLD D QHZ ZDYH RI UHVHDUFK RQ WKH WRSLF FDPH XS DQG UHSUHVHQWHG D PRUH FULWLFDO SRVLWLRQ 7KH REVHUYDWLRQ RI WKH 'RW&RP FULVLV WKH VXESULPH FULVHV DV ZHOO DV WKH RQJRLQJ FULVLV LQ WKH (XUR DUHD UHFHQWO\ DGGHG VWHDP WR WKH GLVFXVVLRQ ,Q WKLV \RXQJHU OLWHUDWXUH WRSLFV DV LQHTXDOLW\ YRODWLOLW\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK EUDLQ GUDLQ DQG RWKHU VRUWV RI VSLOORYHU HIIHFWV KDYH VWDUWHG WR JDLQ LPSRUWDQFH DQG WR UHHYDOXDWH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ILQDQFH DQG JURZWK +HQFH WKLV OLWHUDWXUH FKDOOHQJHG WKH PRVW IXQGDPHQWDO UHVXOWV QDPHO\ WKH XQLTXHO\ SRVLWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG JURZWK ,W DUJXHV WKDW WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS PD\ LQ IDFW EH QRQOLQHDU DQG QRQPRQRWRQH ,Q WKLV FDVH LWV SROLF\ LPSOL FDWLRQV ZRXOG VD\ WKHUH PLJKW LQ IDFW EH ³WRR PXFK ILQDQFH´
6WXG\LQJ WKH FDXVH RI HFRQRPLF EUHDNGRZQV (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW] DUH DPRQJ WKH ILUVW ORRNLQJ LQ PRUH GHWDLO DW WKLV SRWHQWLDOO\ QRQOLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ILQDQFH DQG JURZWK 8VLQJ SDQHO GDWD UHJUHVVLRQV WKH\ SURYH WKH SUHGRPLQDQW LPSRUWDQFH RI IDFWRUV VXFK DV ILQDQFLDO GHEW 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR *'3 )LQDQFLDO LQGLFDWRUV WKH\ DUJXH FDSWXUH PRUH RI WKH FUXFLDO DQG FRPSOH[ G\QDPLFV LQYROYLQJ ILUPV DQG ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV ZKLFK KDYH WUDGLWLRQDOO\
EHHQ RPLWWHG LQ EXVLQHVV F\FOH DQG JURZWK PRGHOV 8QOLNH PRGHOV VWXG\LQJ WKH HIIHFWV RQ JURZWK LWVHOI YRODWLOLW\ FRXOG FDSWXUH WKH PRUH FRPSOH[ G\QDPLFV DULVLQJ DW KLJKHU OHYHOV RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW VSHFLILFDOO\ WKH LQFUHDVLQJ ULVN LQ WKH FROODSVH RI ILQDQFLQJ PHFKDQLVPV WR ILUPV SRWHQWLDOO\ FDXVHG E\ D KLJKHU H[SRVXUH WR H[RJHQRXV VKRFNV DQG KLJKHU OHYHOV RI LQ YHVWRU XQFHUWDLQW\
7KH\ FRQVLGHU WKH HIIHFWV RI ³EDQNUXSWF\ ULVNV´ PHDVXUHG E\ ILQDQFLDO LQGLFDWRUV DV SUHSRQ GHUDQW RYHU RWKHU ULJLGLWLHV VLQFH WKH\ DUH DEOH WR DPSOLI\ VKRFNV WR WKH HFRQRP\ EDQNUXSWF\
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³WRR ODUJH´ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU ZRXOG QRW RQO\ LQFUHDVH WKH JURZWK YRODWLOLW\ EXW UHGXFH WKH ORQJ WHUP JURZWK SHUVSHF WLYHV DV ZHOO
6XPPLQJ XS (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW] DUH SULPDULO\ FRQFHUQHG ZLWK GHWHUPLQLQJ ZKLFK YDULDEOHV DUH GHWHUPLQDQW IRU LQFUHDVHV LQ YRODWLOLW\ DQG DW ZKLFK OHYHO QHJDWLYH HIIHFWV GRPLQDWH RYHU WKH SRVLWLYH G\QDPLFV $ PHULW RI WKHLUV VHHPV WR EH WKDW (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW]
KDYH DQWLFLSDWHG E\ DERXW D GHFDGH WKH PRUH UHFHQW WUHQGV LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH 'HVSLWH GLIIHULQJ
DSSURDFKHV WKHLU SDSHU KDV EHHQ DPRQJ WKH ILUVW WR PHQWLRQ WKH SHU FHQW RI 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR *'3 WKUHVKROG DV D WXUQLQJ SRLQW IRU WKH WUDGLWLRQDOO\ SRVLWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK 7KHUHE\ WKH\ LGHQWLI\ D WXUQLQJ SRLQW EH\RQG ZKLFK ³PRUH´
ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU RU D VSHFLILF DFWLYLW\ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDULHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZRXOG UHGXFH ORQJWHUP JURZWK SHUVSHFWLYHV
7ZHOYH \HDUV ODWHU DPRQJ RWKHUV &HFFKHWWL DQG .KDUURXEL FRQILUP WKLV UHVXOW WKURXJK D PRUH VWDQGDUG DSSURDFK 6SHFLILFDOO\ WKH PDLQ IHDWXUH RI WKHLU DQDO\VLV LV WKH LQFOXVLRQ RI D TXDGUDWLF WHUP LQ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ DOORZLQJ IRU QRQOLQHDULW\ LQ WKH RXWFRPH 7KHLU OLQH RI UHDVRQ LQJ LV QRW VR PXFK FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI ILUPILQDQFH G\QDPLFV EXW UDWKHU ZLWK WKH YLHZ WKDW WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU ³FRPSHWHV´ IRU UHVRXUFHV ZLWK RWKHU VHFWRUV RI WKH HFRQRP\
7KHUHIRUH DQ H[FHVVLYHO\ KLJK JURZWK UDWH LQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU GLUHFWO\ DIIHFWV WKH RXWSXW FDSDFLWLHV RI WKH UHVW RI WKH HFRQRP\
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
$UFDQG %HUNHV DQG 3DQL]]D VKRZ WRR WKDW WKH EHQHILWV RI D ³GHYHORSHG´ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU RQ JURZWK PD\ EH XSSHUERXQGHG ,Q DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK SUHYLRXV ILQGLQJV OLNH WKDW RI (DVWHUO\
,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW] WKH\ ILQG WKDW DW OHYHOV RI &UHGLW WR WKH 3ULYDWH 6HFWRU H[WHQGHG E\
GHSRVLW EDQNV DQG RWKHU ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DERYH RI *'3 LW PLJKW EH WKH FDVH RI WKHUH EHLQJ ³WRR PXFK ILQDQFH´ 7KH DXWKRUV LQWHUSUHW WKH UHVXOWV RI WKHLU UHGXFHG IRUP PRGHO DV SRVVLEO\ GHSLFWLQJ WKH H[FHVVLYH YRODWLOLW\ ZKLFK RFFXUV DW KLJKHU OHYHOV RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW WKXV LQKLELWLQJ WKH FDSDFLW\ WR DOORFDWH UHVRXUFHV HIILFLHQWO\
)XUWKHUPRUH DOO WKUHH SDSHUV \LHOG VLPLODU UHVXOWV ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH OHYHO RI GHEW FRQVLGHUHG DV PD[LPXP SRLQW ± HYHQ LI WKH GHEW YDULDEOH LV GHILQHG GLIIHUHQWO\ LQ GHWDLO 7KLV VKRZV D FHUWDLQ GHJUHH RI UREXVWQHVV LQ WKH UHVXOWV QRW MXVW UHJDUGLQJ GLIIHUHQW WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUNV EXW DOVR UHJDUGLQJ GLIIHUHQW WLPH SHULRGV DQG GLIIHUHQW VDPSOHV XVHG LQ WKH DQDO\VHV
(IIHFWV RQ VPDOO DQG ODUJH ILUPV
$SDUW IURP SXUHO\ PDFURHFRQRPLF VWXGLHV HJ .LQJ /HYLQH WKHUH LV DOVR OLWHUDWXUH IRFXV LQJ RQ WKH KHWHURJHQHRXV HIIHFW RI ILQDQFH RQ VPDOO DQG ODUJH ILUPV 5DMDQ DQG =LQJDOHV
&HWRUHOOL DQG *DPEHUD %HFN HW DO 7KH\ DVVXPH WKDW WKH WZR ILUP FODVVHV KDYH GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI GHSHQGHQF\ RQ ILQDQFH 7KHLU UHVXOWV FRQILUP WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW PD\ OHDG WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK WKURXJK HDVLQJ ERUURZLQJ FRQVWUDLQWV SDUWLFXODUO\ RQ VPDOOHU PRVWO\ OHVV PDWXUH ILUPV
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
&DXVDOLW\ EHWZHHQ DJJUHJDWH JURZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU GHYHORSPHQW
'HVSLWH WKH HDUO\ OLWHUDWXUHV RSWLPLVP UHJDUGLQJ WKH DFKLHYHPHQWV LQ HVWDEOLVKLQJ D FDXVDO OLQN EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG JURZWK WKH LVVXH RI FDXVDOLW\ UHPDLQV IDLUO\ VKDN\ 7KLV FDQ HDVLO\ EH XQGHUVWRRG IURP WKH IDFW WKDW GHVSLWH WKH WHQGHQF\ WR UHIHU WR WKH JHQHUDO UHVXOW RI /HYLQHV DQG KLV FRDXWKRUV PDQ\ SDSHUV ± WKDW VD\V WKDW ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DFWLYLW\ EHLQJ JHQHUDO O\ GHVLUDEOH IRU JURZWK ± LW VD\V PXFK OHVV UHJDUGLQJ KRZ WKLV FDQ EH DFKLHYHG
/HYLQH KDV EHHQ FULWLFLVHG HVSHFLDOO\ E\ 5DMDQ DQG =LQJDOHV IRU KLV SRWHQWLDO ³FXP SRVW KRF HUJR SURSWHU KRF´ MXVWLILFDWLRQ WKDW KH VXSSRVHGO\ DSSOLHG WR KLV HPSLULFDO UHVXOWV 6LQFH WKH HDUOLHVW GHYHORSPHQWV LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH WKRXJK WKH SRVVLELOLW\ IRU VLPXOWDQHRXV FDXVDOLW\ EH WZHHQ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DFWLYLW\ DQG JURZWK KDV EHHQ SRVWXODWHG HJ *ROGVPLWK 7HVWV KDYH EHHQ FDUULHG RXW LQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V LQ RUGHU WR HVWDEOLVK ZKHWKHU WKLV ZDV WKH FDVH $PRQJ WKH PRVW SRSXODU DUH WKRVH E\ /HYLQH HW DO DQG RWKHU ZRUNV $V PHQWLRQHG DERYH WKH\
GHDOW ZLWK FDXVDOLW\ WKURXJK DQ DSSURDFK WKDW 5DMDQ DQG =LQJDOHV ODWHU GHVFULEHG DV D
³SRVW KRF HUJR SURSWHU KRF´ MXVWLILFDWLRQ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV LW LV WKH ORJLFDO IDOODF\ RI LQIHUULQJ FDXVDOLW\ VLPSO\ EHFDXVH RI D WHPSRUDO VHTXHQFH LQ WKH HYHQWV 0RUHRYHU WKHLU WHFKQLTXH LV ZHDNHQHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW WKHLU ZRUN LV EDVHG RQ SDQHO GDWD SRROHG RYHU \HDU SHULRGV ZLWK D WRWDO RI RQO\ REVHUYDWLRQV SHU FRXQWU\ 7KLV OLPLWV WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH UHVXOWV LQFUHDVLQJ WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI RPLWWHG YDULDEOHV
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³IROORZV´ JURZWK HJ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU GHYHORSV ZKHUHYHU IXWXUH EXVLQHVV RSSRUWXQLWLHV FDQ EH IRUHVHHQ 2QO\ DW D ODWHU VWDJH LW ³FDXVHV´ JURZWK E\ DFWLQJ DV WKH IDPRXV OXEULFDQW IRU HFRQRPLF IULFWLRQV
&KDSWHU VXPPDU\
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pODQJH RI SRVLWLYH DQG QHJDWLYH LPSDFWV PDNHV LW LPSRVVLEOH WR VLPSO\ DQDO\VH WKH VLQJOH HIIHFWV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU RQ JURZWK 'R WKH SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH LPSDFWV GRPLQDWH" 2U PRUH VSHFLILFDOO\ PLJKW D ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU EHFRPH RYHUVL]HG DQG LWV DFWLY LWLHV KDUP DJJUHJDWH RXWSXW JURZWK" ,W LV LPSRVVLEOH WR ILQG DQ DQVZHU WR WKHVH TXHVWLRQV E\
PHDQV RI DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH VLQJOH HIIHFWV )RU WKLV UHDVRQ LQGHSWK DQDO\VHV GHSHQG RQ HPSLUL FDO WHFKQLTXHV (FRQRPHWULF PHWKRGV DUH WKH WRRO WKDW LV DEOH WR GLVHQWDQJOH WKH HIIHFWV DQG DSSURDFK WKH TXHVWLRQ LI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV D SLOODU RU EXUGHQ %XW HYHQ WKRXJK WKH HPSLULFDO OLWHUDWXUH DOUHDG\ RIIHUV LQWHQVLYH LQVLJKWV WKH ILQDO TXHVWLRQ DERXW WKH RYHUDOO JURZWK FRQWULEX WLRQ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU KDV QRW EHHQ DQVZHUHG
6HOHFWHG IDFWV DERXW WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
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¶V FRQWULEXWLRQ WR JURZWK 7R ILQG RXW PRUH DERXW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI ILQDQFLDOVHUYLFHV DYDLODELOLW\ LV WKH FRUH JRDO RI RXU HPSLULFDO DQDO\VLV RI &KDSWHU
6L]H DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
,Q )LJXUH WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRUV RI WKH VDPSOH FRXQWULHV DUH FRPSDUHG ZLWK UHJDUG WR YDOXH DGGHG JURZWK DQG YDOXHDGGHG VKDUHV UHODWLYH WR WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ IRU WKH SHULRG RI WR
6L]H
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
'HYHORSPHQW
:KLOH WKH JURZWK UDWH RI WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU OLHV RQ WKH DYHUDJH WKH ODUJH (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV WHQG WR VKRZ FRPSDUDWLYHO\ ORZ JURZWK UDWHV 7KH ³JURZWK OHDGHUV´ DUH *UHHFH (' DQG ,UHODQG D IDFW UHYHDOLQJ WKHLU HFRQRPLF FDWFKLQJXS SURFHVV GXULQJ WKH QLQHWLHV -DSDQ H[SHULHQFHG D SHULRG RI TXLWH VOXJJLVK ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU JURZWK LQ WKH SDVW WZR GHFDGHV QRW VXU SULVLQJ JLYHQ WKH IDFW WKDW WKH VOXJJLVK RYHUDOO HFRQRPLF JURZWK LQ -DSDQ ZDV GXH WR ± IRU ORQJ XQVROYHG ± SUREOHPV LQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
9DULDWLRQ LQ UHJLRQV DQG FRXQWULHV
7KH ULJKWKDQG KDOI RI )LJXUH GHSLFWV WKH YDULDWLRQ DPRQJ FRXQWULHV LQ WHUPV RI DYHUDJH DJJUHJDWH JURZWK UDWHV YHUWLFDO D[LV $ TXLFN FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK )LJXUH UHYHDOV WKDW WKH XQZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH JURZWK UDWHV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DFURVV DOO VDPSOH FRXQWULHV LV ELJJHU WKDQ WKDW RI WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ :KLOH WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU H[SDQGHG E\ WKH SDFH RI SHU FHQW GXULQJ WKH SHULRG IURP WR WKH DYHUDJH DJJUHJDWH JURZWK UDWH HTXDOOHG MXVW SHU FHQW
+RZHYHU WKHUH LV D ORW RI XQFHUWDLQW\ DERXW *UHHFH JLYHQ WKH GHYHORSPHQWV RI WKH SDVW IHZ \HDUV 2Q WKH RQH KDQG RQ WKH VXWDLQDELOLW\ RI WKH VWURQJ JURZWK 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH DUH GRXEWV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH RULJLQDO GDWD LQ WKH ILUVW SODFH
)LJ )LQDQFLDO VHFWRU UHDO YDOXHDGGHG JURZWK DQG ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU VKDUH RI WRWDO YDOXHDGGHG
1RWHV $YHUDJH YDOXHDGGHG VKDUH FDOFXODWHG DW QRPLQDO SULFHV XQZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH LQGLFDWHG E\
JUH\ OLQHV *URZWK UDWHV DUH DYHUDJH DQQXDO JURZWK UDWHV VHH ³OLVW RI DFURQ\PV´ IRU FRXQWU\ DFURQ\PV
6RXUFH %$.%$6(/
$7
%(
'.
), ).
'(
(' ,5
,7
-3 1/ /8
12 37
(6 6(
&+
8.
86
5HDODYHUDJHJURZWKUDWH RIWKHILQDQFLDOVHFWRU
$YHUDJH VKDUH RI YDOXHDGGHG RI WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
)LJXUH DOVR VKRZV WKDW WKH VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ RQ ILQDQFLDO DFWLYLWLHV YDULHV KHDYLO\ EHWZHHQ WKH UHJLRQV $OVR WKH IDFW WKDW VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ YDULHV UHPDUNDEO\ EHWZHHQ UHJLRQV RI WKH VDPH FRXQWU\
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
+RZHYHU WKH ILJXUH GRHV QRW JLYH DQ\ FOHDU SLFWXUH ZLWK UHJDUG WR ILQDQFLDO YDOXHDGGHG VKDUH DQG DJJUHJDWH JURZWK $JJUHJDWH JURZWK UDWHV GR QHLWKHU FOHDUO\ LQFUHDVH QRU GHFUHDVH GH SHQGHQW RQ WKH OHYHO RI WKH DYHUDJH VKDUH LQ QRPLQDO YDOXHDGGHG
*URZWK FRQWULEXWLRQV RI NH\ LQGXVWULHV RI 6ZLW]HUODQG
)LJXUH SXWV WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQWR WKH FRQWH[W RI RWKHU NH\ LQGXVWULHV RI WKH 6ZLVV HFRQRP\ 7KH ILJXUH VKRZV WKH VHFWRUDO DYHUDJH JURZWK UDWHV WKH DYHUDJH YDOXHDGGHG VKDUHV DQG WKH JURZWK FRQWULEXWLRQV GXULQJ WKH SDVW WZR GHFDGHV
7KH UHVXOWLQJ JURZWK FRQWULEXWLRQV LOOXVWUDWH WKH SHFXOLDU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LQ 6ZLW]HUODQG
$PRQJ WKH PDQ\ VHFWRUDO EXEEOHV WKH RQHV GHSLFWLQJ ILQDQFLDOVHFWRU GHYHORSPHQW DUH WKH PRVW H\HFDWFKLQJ 7KH SHFXOLDULW\ LV LWV YDU\LQJ FRQWULEXWLRQ WR DJJUHJDWH JURZWK :KLOH LW H[
SDQGHG UDSLGO\ IURP WR DQG FRQWULEXWHG SHUFHQWDJH SRLQWV WR WKH DYHUDJH DJJUH JDWH JURZWK HDFK \HDU DYHUDJH DJJUHJDWH JURZWK LWV JURZWK FRQWULEXWLRQ )LJ 9DULDWLRQ DPRQJ UHJLRQV DQG FRXQWULHV LQ DJJUHJDWH YDOXHDGGHG JURZWK DQG
LQ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU VKDUH RI WKH DJJUHJDWH YDOXHDGGHG
1RWHV $YHUDJH YDOXHDGGHG VKDUH FDOFXODWHG DW QRPLQDO SULFHV WKH ILYH\HDUDYHUDJHV DUH FDOFXODWHG IRU VL[ SHULRGV ZLWK VWDUWLQJ \HDUV LQ DQG KLJK DJJUHJDWH JURZWK UDWHV EHWZHHQ DQG DUH REVHUYHG LQ WKH (DVWHUQ *HUPDQ UHJLRQV DIWHU WKH UHXQL ILFDWLRQ RI WKH FRXQWU\ SHULRG ³´ 6ZLVV UHJLRQV DQG 6ZLVV QDWLRQDO GDWD UHVSHFWLYHO\
DUH EODFN IRU DOO VL[ SHULRGV 6RXUFH %$.%$6(/
$YHUDJHUHDOJURZWKUDWH RIWKHDJJUHJDWHHFRQRP\
&RXQWULHV
$YHUDJHUHDOJURZWKUDWH RIWKHDJJUHJDWHHFRQRP\
5HJLRQV
$YHUDJH YDOXHDGGHG VKDUH RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQ WKH DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\
FDPH GRZQ WR SHUFHQWDJH SRLQWV RQH GHFDGH ODWHU DYHUDJH DJJUHJDWH JURZWK 7KLV GURS LV YLVXDOL]HG E\ WKH LPSORVLRQ RI WKH UHGPDUNHG EXEEOH RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
6XEVHFWRUDO VWUXFWXUH
$V &KDSWHU VKRZV WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU IXOILOV D YDULHW\ RI IXQFWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH HFRQRP\ RIIHUV D YDULHW\ RI GLIIHUHQW ILQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV DQG KHQFH D FRUUHVSRQGLQJ YDULHW\ RI VSHFLDOL]HG FRP SDQLHV 5HIHUULQJ WR FRPPRQ LQGXVWU\ FODVVLILFDWLRQV WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV VXEGLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH FDWHJRULHV
&UHGLW LQVWLWXWHV
,QVXUDQFHV ZLWKRXW SXEOLF LQVXUDQFHV
$FWLYLWLHV UHODWHG WR FUHGLW LQVWLWXWHV DQG LQVXUDQFHV
7KHVH DUH SULYDWH FRPSDQLHV DQG SXEOLF LQVWLWXWLRQV VXFK DV FODVVLFDO VDYLQJV EDQNV DQG LQYHVWPHQW EDQNV LQVXUHUV DQG UHLQVXUHUV DV ZHOO DV PDUNHW SODWIRUPV VXFK DV VWRFN H[FKDQJH IDFLOLWLHV DQG IUHHODQFH LQYHVWPHQW RU LQVXUDQFH FRQVXOWDQWV &RQFHUQLQJ WKH SXEOLF LQVWLWXWLRQV HVSHFLDOO\ FHQWUDO EDQNV DUH LQIOXHQWLDO SOD\HUV EHORQJLQJ WR FDWHJRU\ )LJXUH FRPSDUHV WKH UHODWLYH YDOXHDGGHG ZHLJKW RI WKH WKUHH VXEVHFWRUV ZLWKLQ WKH QDWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO VHFWRUV
7KH ZHLJKWV RI WKH VXEVHFWRUV VHHP WR GLIIHU VXEVWDQWLDOO\ DFURVV FRXQWULHV 2Q WKH RQH KDQG WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHV PLJKW EH GXH WR ORFDO GHPDQG FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI ILUPV DQG KRXVHKROGV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH GLIIHUHQFHV PLJKW KDYH DULVHQ DQG EH LQFUHDVLQJ WKURXJK HQKDQFHG JOREDO
6HH WKH RIILFLDO 1RPHQFODWXUH *pQpUDOH GHV $FWLYLWpV pFRQRPLTXHV 12*$ RI WKH 6ZLVV )HGHUDO 6WDWLVWLFDO 2IILFH
%I6 IRU D GHWDLOHG GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQ 12*$
)LJ *URZWK FRQWULEXWLRQV RI NH\ LQGXVWULHV RI 6ZLW]HUODQG
1RWHV $YHUDJH YDOXHDGGHG VKDUH FDOFXODWHG DW QRPLQDO SULFHV *URZWK FRQWULEXWLRQV LQ SHUFHQWDJH SRLQWV
6RXUFH %$.%$6(/
) LQDQFLDO VHFWRU
& KHPLFDOV SKDUPD FHXWLFDOV
,QY HVW PHQW JRRGV
:KROHVDOH UHWDLO
7RXULVP
5HDO HVWDWH
%XVLQHVV VHUY LFHV
3 XEOLF DGPLQLV
WUDWLRQ
6HFWRUDODYHUDJHUHDOJURZWKUDWH
$YHUDJH YDOXHDGGHG VKDUH RI WRWDO DQG
LQWHUOLQNDJHV RI ILQDQFLDO ORFDWLRQV 7KLV ZRXOG UHVXOW LQ LQFUHPHQWLQJ GHJUHHV RI ZRUN GLYLVLRQ EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO ORFDWLRQV
&RQFHUQLQJ WKH YDOXHDGGHG RI EDQNV WKH 86 SUHVHQWV E\ IDU WKH ORZHVW VKDUH +RZHYHU LQ RWKHU FRXQWULHV OLNH 1RUZD\ )LQODQG DQG 3RUWXJDO SHU FHQW RU PRUH RI WKH ILQDQFLDO DFWLYLW\ LV JHQHUDWHG E\ EDQNLQJ VHUYLFHV 6ZLW]HUODQG LQ IDFW KDV OLWWOH EDQNLQJ VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKLV LQ WHUQDWLRQDO FRPSDULVRQ GHVSLWH WKH SUHVHQFH RI WZR JOREDOO\ DFWLYH EDQNV 8%6 DQG &UHGLW 6XLVVH
6LPLODU GHJUHHV RI YDULDWLRQ DUH REVHUYHG ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH LQVXUDQFH VHFWRU (VSHFLDOO\ 1RU ZD\ *UHHFH DQG ,WDO\ SUHVHQW UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO VKDUHV ,Q FRQWUDVW D UHPDUNDEOH IHDWXUH RI WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV WKDW WKH LQVXUDQFH VHFWRU UHSUHVHQWHG E\ PHDQLQJIXO LQWHUQDWLRQDO SOD\HUV OLNH 6ZLVV 5H DQG =XULFK )LQDQFLDO 6HUYLFHV FRQWULEXWHV D UHODWLYHO\ ODUJH DPRXQW WR WKH WRWDO VHFWRUDO YDOXHDGGHG )XUWKHU FRXQWULHV ZLWK ODUJH VKDUHV LQ LQVXUDQFH YDOXHDGGHG DUH WKH 86 6ZHGHQ ,UHODQG DQG $XVWULD
:LWK UHJDUG WR WKH DFWLYLWLHV UHODWHG WR FUHGLW LQVWLWXWHV DQG LQVXUDQFHV WKH 86 /X[HPERXUJ DQG
*UHHFH VWLFN RXW 7KH SUHVHQFH RI JOREDOO\ LPSRUWDQW PDUNHW SODWIRUPV VXFK DV VWRFN H[FKDQJH IDFLOLWLHV DW VHYHUDO ORFDWLRQV RQ 86 WHUULWRU\ LV D SODXVLEOH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH UHODWLYH LP SRUWDQFH RI WKLV VXEVHFWRU +RZHYHU VRPH FRXQWULHV 1RUZD\ )LQODQG 'HQPDUN 6SDLQ 3RU WXJDO DQG 8. KDYH OLWWOH VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKLV FDWHJRU\
)LJ 6XEVHFWRUDO VWUXFWXUH LQ WHUPV RI YDOXHDGGHG
1RWH $V LQGXVWU\ GHILQLWLRQV PLJKW GLIIHU LQ GHWDLO EHWZHHQ WKH QDWLRQDO VWDWLVWLFDO RIILFHV FRQFOX VLRQV RXJKW WR EH GUDZQ ZLWK VRPH GHJUHH RI FDXWLRQ
6RXUFH %$.%$6(/
12 ), 37 ,7 (6
%(
'.
'(-3 (' 8.).
1/
/8
$7 ,5
&+6(
86
&UHGLW LQVWLWXWHV ,QVXUDQFHV 5HODWHG DFWLYLWL
,QWHUQDWLRQDO OLQNV RI WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU
&HQWUHV RI WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO LQGXVWU\
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
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH *OREDO )LQDQFLDO &HQWUHV ,QGH[ *HQHYD UDQNV VHFRQG LQ 6ZLW]HUODQG DIWHU
=XULFK DQG DPRQJVW WKH WRS WHQ ZRUOGZLGH =<HQ ,WV PDLQ IRFXV OLHV RQ SULYDWH EDQNLQJ DQG LWV VWURQJ FRQQHFWLRQV WR WKH FRPPRGLW\ WUDGH ,Q D JOREDO FRQWH[W OHVV RXWVWDQGLQJ EXW QHYHUWKHOHVV LPSRUWDQW IRU 6ZLW]HUODQG DUH WKH VOLJKWO\ PRUH UHJLRQDO FHQWUHV RI ILQDQFLDO VHU YLFHV LQ /XJDQR DQG %DVHO
7UDGH LQ ILQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV
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
7KH IROORZLQJ ILJXUHV SDUWO\ GHSHQG RQ GDWD RI WKH SDVW GHFDGH RQO\ 7KLV IDFW LV GXH WR WKH FRQVLGHUDEO\
LPSURYHG GDWD DYDLODELOLW\ LQ WKDW GHFDGH DV FRPSDUHG WR SULRU RQHV
&RQVLGHULQJ )LJXUH WKH RYHUDOO FRQFOXVLRQ DERXW 6ZLW]HUODQG IURP DERYH LV VXSSRUWHG +RZ HYHU GHSLFWLQJ DEVROXWH YDOXHV LQ ELOOLRQ 86'ROODUV ODUJH FRXQWULHV OLNH *HUPDQ\ ,WDO\ -DSDQ DQG 6SDLQ DUH PRUH DFFHQWXDWHG WKDQ LQ WKH GLDJUDP DERYH
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
)LJ 'RPHVWLF YDOXHDGGHG E\ ILQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDWLRQ HPERGLHG LQ IRUHLJQ ILQDO GHPDQG DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI WRWDO YDOXHDGGHG
1RWH /X[HPERXUJ /8 SUHVHQWV DQ H[WUHPH YDOXH RI SHU FHQW DQG LV FXW RII IRU WKH VDNH RI EHWWHU GDWD SUHVHQWDWLRQ
6RXUFH 2(&'
). 86 (' '. ), '( 37 6( ,7 (6 12 1/ %( $7 8. &+ ,5 /8 'RPHVWLFYDOXHDGGHGHPERGLHGLQ IRUHLJQILQDOGHPDQGDVDRIWRWDO YDOXHDGGHG
7KURXJKRXW WKH SDVW GHFDGH ERWK 6ZLVV EDQNV DQG LQVXUHUV KDYH EHHQ UHOLDEOH JHQHUDWRUV RI VXUSOXVHV ,Q WKH FRXUVH RI WKH 'RWFRP FULVLV DQG WKH FULVLV LQ WKH (XUR DUHD WKH EDQNV FRXOG WHPSRUDULO\ QRW PDLQWDLQ WKH VXUSOXV OHYHO EXW PDQDJHG WR NHHS D SRVLWLYH EDODQFH 7KH SHDN RI WKH SDVW GHFDGH ZDV UHDFKHG LQ WKH ODVW \HDU EHIRUH WKH VXESULPH FULVLV VWUXFN WKH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU $OVR WKH LQVXUDQFHV FRQVWDQWO\ PDLQWDLQHG D VXUSOXV ± DW D ORZHU OHYHO SURSRUWLRQDWH WR WKH ORZHU YROXPH RI VDOHV LQ WKDW VHFWRU ,Q WKH VXUSOXV ZDV ORZHVW GXH WR D GHFOLQH RI H[SRUWV +RZHYHU WKLV GHFOLQH ZDV PRUH WKDQ FRPSHQVDWHG RQH \HDU ODWHU E\ D VKDUS LQFUHDVH DQG XQWLO WKH H[SRUWV SUHVHQW DQ XSZDUG WHQGHQF\
)LJ ([SRUWV LPSRUWV DQG WUDGH EDODQFHV E\ WKH EDQNLQJ DQG LQVXUDQFH LQGXVWULHV RI WKH VDPSOH FRXQWULHV
1RWHV H[SRUW DERYH ]HUR OLQH LPSRUWV EHORZ ]HUR OLQH WUDGH EDODQFH EODFN OLQHV 7KH WUDGH GHILFLW LQ LQVXUDQFH VHUYLFHV RI WKH 86 DPRXQWV WR ELOOLRQ 86' 7KH \D[LV KDV EHHQ FXW IRU EHWWHU GDWD SUHVHQWDWLRQ
6RXUFH 2(&'
$7 %( '. ), ). '( (' ,5 ,7 -3 /8 1/ 12 37 (6 6( &+ 8. 86 ,QVXUHUV
$7 %( '. ), ). '( (' ,5 ,7 -3 /8 1/ 12 37 (6 6( &+ 8. 86
%DQNV
LQELOOLRQ86'
