• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO ± DOWHUQDWLYH HVWLPDWLRQV

5HVXOWV IRU 2XWSXW *URZWK 9RODWLOLW\ LQ WKH UHJLRQDO DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\

DJJUHJDWH HFRQRP\ UHJLRQDO OHYHO ± DOWHUQDWLYH HVWLPDWLRQV

&UHGLW 7R

9DOXHV UHSUHVHQW WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH 7XUQLQJ 3RLQW LQ WHUPV RI WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ LQGLFDWRU ,QGLFDWRU UDQJH 1HW 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR *'3 WR )LUPV ±

'HSHQGHQW YDULDEOH VHH FROXPQ KHDGHU 6DPSOH UHJLRQV

6LJQLILFDQFH DW WKH OHYHO LV LQGLFDWHG E\ RU E\ ³´ ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW 6RXUFH %$.%$6(/

7KLV UHVXOW FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV VXSSRUWLQJ WKH ILQGLQJV RI (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW]

FDSWXULQJ WKH ULVN RI EDQNUXSWF\ FKDLQV ZLWKLQ WKH HFRQRP\ ZKHQ ILUP LQGHEWHGQHVV ULVHV GLV SURSRUWLRQDWHO\ 2QH PD\ DUJXH WKDW LQ KLJKO\ ILQDQFLDOO\ GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV DORQH WKH DOWHUQD WLYH LQGLFDWRU RI ILQDQFLDO GHHSQHVV 1HW 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR *'3 WR ILUPV UDWKHU WKDQ WR WKH WRWDO ZKLFK LQFOXGHV +RXVHKROG 'HEW LV EHWWHU DW LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH ³8´ VKDSHG UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG 2XWSXW *URZWK 9RODWLOLW\ 1HYHUWKHOHVV ZH GR QRW KDYH HQRXJK HYL GHQFH LQ VXSSRUW RI WKLV SRVVLEOH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ

&RQFOXVLRQ

2YHUDOO WKH SLFWXUH WKDW HPHUJHV IURP WKH HYLGHQFH DW QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO OHYHO LV QRW YHU\

UREXVW 8VLQJ WKH FRPPRQ PHDVXUH RI ILQDQFLDO GHHSQHVV QDPHO\ 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR *'3 ZH

REVHUYH D QHJDWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS ZKLFK ZRXOG VXJJHVW D EHQHILFLDO HIIHFW RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW RQ WKH RYHUDOO VWDELOLW\ RI WKH HFRQRP\

1HYHUWKHOHVV ZKHQ WKLV LQGLFDWRU LV PRGLILHG LQ RUGHU WR LVRODWH WKH DPRXQW RI FUHGLW IORZLQJ WR ILUPV H[FO +RXVHKROG 'HEW WKH OLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS LV QR ORQJHU VLJQLILFDQW ZKLOVW WKH TXDGUDWLF VSHFLILFDWLRQ FRPHV LQ VXSSRUW RI WKH UHVXOWV RI (DVWHUO\ ,VODP DQG 6WLJOLW]

$OWKRXJK WKH HYLGHQFH FROOHFWHG LV QRW VXIILFLHQW WR IRUPXODWH DQ\ VWURQJ FRQFOXVLRQ LW GRHV VXJJHVW WKDW LW PD\ EH LQWHUHVWLQJ WR FDUU\ RXW IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK FRQFHUQLQJ WKH GLIIHUHQW HIIHFWV RQ 9RODWLOLW\ FDXVHG E\ GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI 3ULYDWH &UHGLW WR ILUPV RU WR KRXVHKROGV DFURVV GLIIHU HQW JURXSV RI FRXQWULHV

&RQFOXVLRQ DQG VXPPDU\

7KH KDUPRQLF LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG WKH UHVW RI WKH HFRQRP\ LV RI IXQGD PHQWDO LPSRUWDQFH 7KH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV IDU IURP EHLQJ FXWRII IURP WKH UHVW RI WKH HFRQRP\

EXW SURYLGHV FUXFLDO VHUYLFHV ZKLFK DOORZ LW WR EH FRQVLGHUHG DV DQHWZRUN VHFWRU ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV ZKHQ DVVHVVLQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU IRU DQ HFRQRP\ LW LV QRW RQO\ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR HPSOR\PHQW DQG YDOXHDGGHG ZKLFK LV UHOHYDQW EXW DOVR WKH FDWDO\WLF HIIHFWV LW JHQHUDWHV RQ RWKHU LQGXVWULHV )LQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV LI SURYLGHG SURSHUO\ DOORZ RWKHU SDUWV RI WKH HFRQRP\ WR IXQFWLRQ PRUH HIILFLHQWO\ DQG HIIHFWLYHO\

7KLV LV HVSHFLDOO\ WUXH IRU 6ZLW]HUODQG ,Q FRPSDULVRQ WR RWKHU (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV 6ZLW]HUODQG ± DQG HVSHFLDOO\ LWV PRVW SURPLQHQW ILQDQFLDO FHQWUH =XULFK ± LV ILQDQFLDOO\ KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG DQG VSHFLDOL]HG $V D UHVXOW 6ZLW]HUODQG FDQ UHDS WKH UHZDUGV RI D ODUJH DQG VSHFLDOL]HG ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU ,Q WXUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG LV H[SRVHG WR WKH VHFWRU¶V SRWHQWLDO ULVNV WR DQ HVSHFLDOO\ ODUJH H[

WHQW DV ZHOO ,QGHHG WKH SDVW \HDUV UHYHDOHG WKDW DFWLYLWLHV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV FDQ OHDG WR PDFURHFRQRPLF ULVNV

7KHUHIRUH LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR XQGHUVWDQG KRZ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV UHODWHG WR 6ZLVV NH\ LQGXV WULHV DQG WR WKH HFRQRP\ DV D ZKROH $OWKRXJK WKH GLIIHUHQW NLQGV RI HIIHFWV DV ZHOO DV WKH LQGL YLGXDO WUDQVPLVVLRQ FKDQQHOV OHDGLQJ WR WKH FDWDO\WLF RU QHWZRUN HIIHFWV DUH GLVFXVVHG WKH RYHUDOO IRFXV LV RQ WKH FRPSOHWH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU SDUWLFXODUO\ LWV VL]H DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK

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

,Q D FRPSUHKHQVLYH YLHZ RI DOO WUDQVPLVVLRQ FKDQQHOV DQDO\VHG WKH HFRQRPHWULF UHVXOWV VKRZ D FRQVLGHUDEOH GHJUHH RI XQFHUWDLQW\ $OWKRXJK WKLV VHHPV WR EH XQVDWLVI\LQJ DW ILUVW D UHODWLYHO\

FOHDU ± DQG LPSRUWDQW ±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¶V UROH LQ HDVLQJ FRQVWUDLQWV WR FDSLWDO DOORFDWLRQ )RU PDWXUH HFRQRPLHV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS VHHPV WR EH OHVV VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG

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¶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± GRHV QRW OHDG WR WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI DQ\ FOHDUFXW HPSLUL FDO UHODWLRQVKLSV )RU HVWLPDWLRQV RQ LQQRYDWLRQ ZH FRQFOXGH WKDW D ODUJH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ UHODWHG WR D ODUJH VXSSO\ RI WKH VSHFLILF ILQDQFLQJ WRROV UHTXLUHG IRU WKH VSHFLILF VHJ PHQW RI LQYHVWPHQWV LQ LQQRYDWLRQ DQG QHZ WHFKQRORJLHV

7U\LQJ WR PRWLYDWH WKLV UHVXOW DW LQGXVWU\ OHYHO OHDGV DJDLQ WR OHVV UREXVW FRQFOXVLRQV 7KHUH LV VRPH LQGLFDWLRQ WKDW LQGXVWULHV ZLWK W\SLFDOO\ VPDOOHU ILUPV ± DV WKH VHUYLFH VHFWRU ± DUH PRUH UHOLDQW RQ VHUYLFHV SURYLGHG E\ D UHJLRQDO ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU +RZHYHU DOVR KHUH ZH REVHUYH D GHFUHDVLQJ SDWWHUQ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG D VLPLODU UHODWLRQVKLS LV KDUGHU WR LGHQWLI\ IRU FRPSDQLHV IURP WKH SURGXFWLRQ VHFWRU 3UREDEO\ WKHVH UHO\ RQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V RI ILQDQFLQJ DQGRU QRW QHF HVVDULO\ RQ WKH GRPHVWLF UHJLRQDO RU QDWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU :H DOVR ILQG VRPH KLQWV RQ WKH FDWDO\WLF HIIHFW WKURXJK WKH GHPDQG IRU VHUYLFHV RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU LWVHOI WKHUH LV D VWURQJ

DQG FRQVLVWHQW SRVLWLYH HIIHFW RI D ODUJH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU RQ JURZWK LQ EXVLQHVV VHUYLFHV DQ LQ GXVWU\ W\SLFDOO\ VXSSO\LQJ VHUYLFHV WR WKH ILQDQFLDO LQGXVWU\ LWVHOI

+RZ VKRXOG WKHVH UHVXOWV EH LQWHUSUHWHG" 7KH HPSLULFDO UHVXOWV DUH OHVV FRQFOXVLYH WKDQ H[

SHFWHG SRVVLEO\ VXIIHULQJ IURP OLPLWDWLRQV LQ WKH GDWD DQG QHFHVVDU\ DVVXPSWLRQV SDUWLFXODUO\

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

KHOS WR VKLQH OLJKW RQ WKH FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU GHYHORSPHQW DQG JURZWK LQ JUHDWHU GHWDLO

$ JHQHUDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQ VWLOO LPSOLHV WKDW WKH IXUWKHU GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU RXJKW WR EH FULWLFDOO\ DFFRPSDQLHG DQG WKDW RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG ULVNV RXJKW WR EH EDODQFHG FDUHIXOO\ :LWK UHJDUG WR RXU UHVXOWV DQG WKRVH RI IXUWKHU VWXGLHV WKH =XULFK DUHD¶V KLJK GHJUHH RI VSHFLDOLVDWLRQ RXJKW WR UHVXOW LQ D FULWLFDO VFUXWLQ\ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU¶V LPSDFW RQ UHJLRQDO JURZWK :LWK D VKDUH RI ILQDQFLDO HPSOR\PHQW WR DJJUHJDWH RI SHU FHQW WKH VHFWRU PD\ KDYH UHDFKHG D VL]H ZKHUH WKH RYHUDOO HFRQRPLF JURZWK LV UDWKHU KDPSHUHG WKDQ VXSSRUWHG )RU H[

DPSOH EUDLQGUDLQ G\QDPLFV DW WKH H[SHQVH RI H[SRUWRULHQWHG VHFWRUV FDQQRW EH UXOHG RXW

$OVR WKH VWUHQJWK RI WKH 6ZLVV IUDQF IRU LQVWDQFH DFWV DV D GUDJ RQ WKH H[SRUW LQGXVWU\ ZKLFK FDQ DW OHDVW SDUWO\ EH DWWULEXWHG WR WKH UROH RI WKH 6ZLVV IUDQF DV D ³VDIH KDYHQ´ FXUUHQF\ +RZ HYHU WKH VSHFLILFV RI WKH SDUWLFXODU FDVH PXVW QRW EH FRPSOHWHO\ LJQRUHG ± WKH GHWHUPLQHG DYHU DJH HIIHFW PD\ QRW DSSO\ LQ HYHU\ FRQWH[W 7KH 6ZLVV ILQDQFLDO LQGXVWU\ LQ SDUWLFXODU GLVSOD\V VSHFLILF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ± DPRQJ RWKHUV D VWURQJ IRFXV RQ SULYDWH EDQNLQJ FRXSOHG ZLWK D PLQRU LPSRUWDQFH RI LQYHVWPHQW EDQNLQJ

,Q DQ\ FDVH IRU D ILQDQFLDOO\ KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG FRXQWU\ OLNH 6ZLW]HUODQG WKH FRQVWDQW FULWLFDO VXSSRUW RI WKH QXPHURXV ILQDQFLDO DFWRUV DQG WKH FRQVWDQW DGRSWLRQ RI UHJXODWLRQ WR WKH TXLFNO\

FKDQJLQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZLOO SD\ RII ,W ZLOO HQVXUH WKDW WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU FRQWLQXHV WR ZRUN DW WKH VHUYLFH RI VRFLHW\

/LWHUDWXUH

$JKLRQ 3 +RZLWW 3 $ PRGHO RI JURZWK WKURXJK FUHDWLYH GHVWUXFWLRQ (FRQRPHWULFD

$UFDQG -/ %HUNHV ( 3DQL]]D 8 7RR PXFK ILQDQFH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0RQHWDU\ )RQGV :RUNLQJ 3DSHU

$UURZ . - 7KH HFRQRPLF LPSOLFDWLRQV RI OHDUQLQJ E\ GRLQJ 7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV

%DUUR 5 - 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI (FRQRPLF *URZWK $ &URVV&RXQWU\ (PSLULFDO 6WXG\ &DP EULGJH 0,7 3UHVV

%HFN 7 'HJU\VH + .QHHU & ,V PRUH ILQDQFH EHWWHU" 'LVHQWDQJOLQJ LQWHUPHGLDWLRQ DQG VL]H HIIHFWV RI ILQDQFLDO V\VWHPV (XURSHDQ %DQNLQJ &HQWHU 'LVFXVVLRQ 3DSHU 1R

%HFN 7 'HPLUJo.XQW $ /HYLQH 5 )LQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG PDUNHWV DFURVV FRXQWULHV DQG RYHU WLPH 7KH XSGDWHG )LQDQFLDO 'HYHORSPHQW DQG 6WUXFWXUH 'DWDEDVH 7KH :RUOG %DQN (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ

%HFN 7 'HPLUJo.XQW $ /HYLQH 5 $ QHZ GDWDEDVH RQ WKH VWUXFWXUH DQG GHYHO RSPHQW RI WKH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU 7KH :RUOG %DQN (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ

%HFN 7 'HPLUJoǦ.XQW $ /DHYHQ / /HYLQH 5 )LQDQFH ILUP VL]H DQG JURZWK -RXUQDO RI 0RQH\ &UHGLW DQG %DQNLQJ

%HFN 7 /HYLQH 5 /RD\]D 1 E )LQDQFH DQG WKH 6RXUFHV RI *URZWK -RXUQDO RI )L QDQFLDO (FRQRPLFV

%HQFLYHQJD 9 5 6PLWK % ' 6RPH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI FUHGLW UDWLRQLQJ LQ DQ HQGRJH QRXV JURZWK PRGHO -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF '\QDPLFV DQG &RQWURO

&DOGHUyQ & /LX / 7KH GLUHFWLRQ RI FDXVDOLW\ EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK -RXUQDO RI 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV

&DOYR * $ &RULFHOOL ) 2XWSXW FROODSVH LQ (DVWHUQ (XURSH 7KH UROH RI FUHGLW 6WDII 3DSHUV,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0RQHWDU\ )XQG

&HFFKHWWL 6 .KDUURXEL ( 5HDVVHVVLQJ WKH LPSDFW RI ILQDQFH RQ JURZWK &RQIHUHQFH 'UDIW

&HWRUHOOL 1 *DPEHUD 0 %DQNLQJ PDUNHW VWUXFWXUH ILQDQFLDO GHSHQGHQFH DQG JURZWK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO HYLGHQFH IURP LQGXVWU\ GDWD 7KH -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH

&RUGHQ : 0 1HDU\ - 3 %RRPLQJ VHFWRU DQG GHLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ LQ D VPDOO RSHQ HFRQRP\ 7KH (FRQRPLF -RXUQDO

&RUWULJKW - 1HZ JURZWK WKHRU\ WHFKQRORJ\ DQG OHDUQLQJ $ SUDFWLWLRQHU¶V JXLGH 5H YLHZV RI (FRQRPLF 'HYHORSPHQW /LWHUDWXUH DQG 3UDFWLFH

'H *UHJRULR - *XLGRWWL 3 ( )LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK :RUOG 'HYHORSPHQW

'HPLUJo.XQW $ /HYLQH 5 )LQDQFH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU SROLFLHV DQG ORQJUXQ JURZWK :RUOG %DQN 3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK :RUNLQJ 3DSHU 6HULHV 1R

(DVWHUO\ : ,VODP 5 6WLJOLW] - ( 6KDNHQ DQG VWLUUHG H[SODLQLQJ JURZWK YRODWLOLW\

,Q $QQXDO :RUOG %DQN &RQIHUHQFH RQ 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV 9RO S

(QQLV + 0DOHN + 6 %DQN ULVN RI IDLOXUH DQG WKH WRRELJWRIDLO SROLF\ )5% 5LFK PRQG (FRQRPLF 4XDUWHUO\

)LQDQFLDO 7LPHV )LQDQFLDO 7LPHV *OREDO 85/

KWWSZZZIWFRPLQWOFRPSDQLHVIW DXIJHUXIHQ

*ROGVPLWK 5 : )LQDQFLDO 6WUXFWXUH DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 1HZ +DYHQ &7 <DOH 8QLYHUVLW\

3UHVV

*URVVPDQ * 0 +HOSPDQ ( ,QQRYDWLRQ DQG JURZWK LQ WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ &DP EULGJH 0,7 3UHVV

*XLVR /XLJL 3DROD 6DSLHQ]D DQG /XLJL =LQJDOHV 7KH 5ROH RI 6RFLDO &DSLWDO LQ )LQDQFLDO 'HYHORSPHQW 7KH $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ

+DVVDQ 0 . 6DQFKH] % <X - 6 )LQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK 1HZ HYLGHQFH IURP SDQHO GDWD 7KH 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLFV DQG )LQDQFH -DSSHOOL 7 3DJDQR 0 6DYLQJ JURZWK DQG OLTXLGLW\ FRQVWUDLQWV 7KH 4XDUWHUO\ -RXU QDO RI (FRQRPLFV

.LQJ 5 * /HYLQH 5 )LQDQFH DQG JURZWK 6FKXPSHWHU PLJKW EH ULJKW 7KH 4XDUWHU O\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV

/DHYHQ / /HYLQH 5 &RPSOH[ RZQHUVKLS VWUXFWXUHV DQG FRUSRUDWH YDOXDWLRQV 5H YLHZ RI )LQDQFLDO 6WXGLHV

/HYLQH 5 /RD\]D 1 %HFN 7 )LQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDWLRQ DQG JURZWK &DXVDOLW\ DQG FDXVHV -RXUQDO RI 0RQHWDU\ (FRQRPLFV

/HYLQH 5 =HUYRV 6 6WRFN PDUNHWV EDQNV DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK $PHULFDQ (FR QRPLF 5HYLHZ 9RO 1R -XQ

0DQNLZ 1 * 5RPHU ' :HLO ' 1 $ FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH HPSLULFV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK 7KH 4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV

0OOHU 8 6HJRYLD & 6FKHUUHU & %DEXF 1 DOOH %$.%$6(/ 6WDDWVVHNUHWDULDW IU :LUWVFKDIW 6(&2 (G (UUHLFKEDUNHLW XQG :LUWVFKDIWVHQWZLFNOXQJ :LUWVFKDIWVSROLWLVFKH +HUDXVIRUGHUXQJHQ ]ZLVFKHQ 6FKLFNVDO XQG *HVWDOWEDUNHLW 6WUXNWXUEHULFKWHUVWDWWXQJ 1U 5DMDQ 5 =LQJDOHV / )LQDQFLDO GHSHQGHQFH DQG JURZWK 7KH $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ 6

5DMDQ 5 +DV ILQDQFH PDGH WKH ZRUOG ULVNLHU" (XURSHDQ )LQDQFLDO 0DQDJHPHQW

5DPH\ * 5DPH\ 9 $ &URVVFRXQWU\ HYLGHQFH RQ WKH OLQN EHWZHHQ YRODWLOLW\ DQG JURZWK $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ 9RO 'HFHPEHU SS

5HKNXJOHU + 6FKLQGHO 9 )LQDQ]LHUXQJ $XIODJH 0QFKHQ

5RPHU 3 0 ,QFUHDVLQJ UHWXUQV DQG ORQJUXQ JURZWK 7KH -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\

5RPHU 3 0 (QGRJHQRXV 7HFKQRORJLFDO &KDQJH -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\

6RORZ 5 0 $ FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK 7KH 4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV

6RORZ 5 0 7HFKQLFDO FKDQJH DQG WKH DJJUHJDWH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ 7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLFV DQG 6WDWLVWLFV

6XVVPDQ 2 $ WKHRU\ RI ILQDQFLDO GHYHORSPHQW ,Q )LQDQFH DQG 'HYHORSPHQW ,VVXHV DQG ([SHULHQFH

7RELQ - 2Q WKH HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH ILQDQFLDO V\VWHP /OR\GV %DQN 5HYLHZ

=LQJDOHV / 7KH ZHDN OLQNV )HGHUDO 5HVHUYH %DQN RI 6W /RXLV 5HYLHZ

=UFKHU % /HLGHW GLH 6FKZHL] DQ GHU +ROOlQGLVFKHQ .UDQNKHLW" ,Q 'LH 9RONVZLUWVFKDIW

=<HQ *URXS /LPLWHG <HDQGOH 0 'DQHY 1 *XQWHQ YRQ & 0DLQHOOL 0 7KH *OREDO )LQDQFLDO &HQWUHV ,QGH[ 0DUFK

$SSHQGL[ 7DEOH RI &RQWHQWV

$SSHQGL[ $ 'DWD

6DPSOH

1DWLRQDO

5HJLRQDO

$SSHQGL[ % 5HJUHVVLRQ 5HVXOWV

6L]H RI WKH )LQDQFLDO 6HFWRU

1DWLRQDO $JJUHJDWH OHYHO

%DVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH 5REXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH 5REXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH

1DWLRQDO 6HFWRU OHYHO

%DVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH 5REXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH %DVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH 5REXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH %DVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH 5REXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV 5HJLRQV ± 7DEOH 5REXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV 5HJLRQV ± 7DEOH

,QQRYDWLRQ

1DWLRQDO $JJUHJDWH OHYHO

%DVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH 5REXVWQHVV UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH 6\VWHPLF 5LVNV 9RODWLOLW\

1DWLRQDO $JJUHJDWH OHYHO

%DVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH

5HJLRQDO $JJUHJDWH OHYHO

%DVHOLQH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH $OWHUQDWLYH UHJUHVVLRQV ± 7DEOH