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7 MODEL SENSITIVITY AND EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION

7.2 T EST APPLICATION : POWER SUPPLY IN E UROPE AND N ORTH A FRICA

7.2.2 No transmission restriction

In Norway the electric power is supplied at the lowest costs of 0.062 €/kWh with a mixture of wind and hydro power and some biomass. The highest costs of 0.169 €/kWh occur in Luxemburg, where 8 TWh/a out of 10.9 TWh/a are generated in gas turbines with e.g. natural gas because the domestic renewable resources can not cover the power demand. The LEC for the power from the gas turbines in Luxembourg are 0.206 €/kWh, 0.198 €/kWhel for the gas and only 0.08 €/kWh for the turbine which is operated for 5062 full load hours. In Malta the LEC of 0.158 €/kWh are only slightly lower than in Luxembourg. In Malta no pumped hydro and no salt caverns for CAES or hydrogen storage are available. The energy mix here is 80 % offshore wind at costs of 0.063 €/kWh, 9.4 % PV power at costs of 0.062 €/kWh.

9.6 % are provided by CSP plants and the remaining 1 % is provided by biomass steam turbines and by biogas plants with combined heat and power generation. The balancing of the fluctuations of the load, wind and PV generation is performed by the CSP and biomass power plants, which have very low full load hours of operation of 1456 h (CSP), 468 h (biomass, steam turbine) and 880 h (biogas plant with CHP). The levelised electricity costs of all regions lie between 0.062 €/kWh and 0.169 €/kWh, without Malta and Luxembourg they lie between 0.062 €/kWh and 0.109 €/kWh (Sweden). The average LEC calculated by dividing the cumulated annual system costs of all regions by the cumulated annual power demand of all regions are 0.083 €/kWh (category ‘all’ in figure 7.2.2).

Table 7.2.2: Total annual energy sums in TWh/a, storage capacities in TWh in a European-North African network; no transmission restriction (‘0ds’).

AL_CS_MK BA_HR_SI AT BE BG CY CZ DN IE EE_LT_LV FI FR DE GR HU IT SK LU

Annual power demand 68 47 49 67 26 4.9 52 51 34 36 76 426 549 62 44 311 29 11 Annual power demand / generation (inc. n. i.1 in NO) in % 157 220 181 404 198 81 225 115 16 63 101 191 149 124 326 265 297 1096 Annual gen. (without n. i.1 in NO) 43 22 27 17 13 6 23 44 212 57 76 223 367 50 13 117 10 1 Annual gen. (inc. n. i.1 in NO) 43 22 27 17 13 6 23 44 212 57 76 223 367 50 13 117 10 1 Geothermal power 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Geothermal CHP 33 16 12 7.4 11 0 16 0 0 7.8 0 66 0 9.6 9.1 53 7.3 0.1 N. i.1 in NO Run-of-river hydro (old+mod.)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 Run-of-river hydro (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reservoir hydro 0 2.6 9.6 0 0 0 1.7 0 0.3 0 2.9 29 2.3 0 0 5.3 0.3 0 Biomass (steam turbine) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 0 0 0 0 Biomass (steam turb., CHP) 1.2 1.7 3.9 1.8 1.4 0.1 2.9 1.7 0.7 2.6 14 19 16 1.5 3.1 8.0 1.6 0.2 Biomass (biogas CHP) 1.9 1.2 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 1.4 2.3 6.3 1.8 0.6 13 11 0.6 1.3 4.9 0.7 0.6 Wind onshore0 0 0 5.3 0 0 0.6 24 47 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 Wind offshore7.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 158 41 58 85 310 12 0 0 0 0 Photovoltaic0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CSP 0 0 0 0 0 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 26 0 46 0 0 Residual (gas turbine)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Import (+) / export (-)25 29 27 51 23 -1.1629 25 -174-210.9 234 203 12 30 209 25 10 Storage losses0 -2.9-4.7-0.1-90 -0.1-18 0 -0.10 -32-22 0 0 -15-5.20 Surplus0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Storage capacity in TWh0 3.2 5.5 0 9.7 0 0 21 0 0 0 35 19 0 0 16 6.0 0 Pumped storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 CAES0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydrogen0 3.2 5.5 0 9.7 0 0 21 0 0 0 35 19 0 0 16 6.0 0 Annual district heat from CHP62 37 37 23 27 0.3 43 7.7 9.7 25 41 200 58 23 29 134 20 1.5 Storage input in % of an. Gen. 0 25 35 4.5 130 0 1.5 76 0.1 1.3 0 27 11 0 0 25 98 0 1) Annual natural inflow into pumped hydro power plants in Norway

Table 7.2.2 (continued): Total annual energy sums in TWh/a, storage capacities in TWh in a European-North African network; no transmission restriction (‘0ds’).

MT NE NO PL PT RO ES SE CH_LI TR UK U_MD BY DZ MA TN LY EG Total

Annual power demand 3 116 112 191 62 96 320 154 40 494 451 237 52 249 235 66 44 631 5497 Annual power demand / generation (inc. n. i.1 in NO) in % 451 118 21 132 113 248 87 202 130 143 62 100 119 57 102 72 8 109 93 Annual gen. (without n. i.1 in NO) 1 98 489 144 55 39 370 76 30 346 729 237 44 436 231 91 552 581 5872 Annual gen. (inc. n. i.1 in NO) 1 98 537 144 55 39 370 76 30 346 729 237 44 436 231 91 552 581 5919 Geothermal power 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Geothermal CHP 0 16 0 49 0.1 31 17 0 13 114 39 65 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 596 N. i.1 in NO 47 47 Run-of-river hydro (old + mod.) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 Run-of-river hydro (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reservoir hydro 0 0 0 0.4 2.8 0 17 3.8 16 2.0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 96 Biomass (steam turbine) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.6 9 Biomass (steam turb., CHP) 0 1.3 0.5 7.5 2.7 4.7 7.8 16.7 0.6 5.0 7.6 8.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.3 0 150 Biomass (biogas CHP) 0 4.2 0.5 5.7 1.1 2.6 4.9 1.0 1.1 7.3 6.3 9.2 3.8 0 0 0 0 0 99 Wind onshore0 15 92 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 119 155 35 7.2 0 0 149 54 763 Wind offshore0.4 62 397 25 0 0.7 0 55 0 0 557 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1784 Photovoltaic0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 CSP 0.2 0 0 0 48 0 323 0 0 163 0 0 0 427 229 91 403 524 2297 Residual (gas turbine)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Import (+) / export (-) or ‘total’: transmission losses2.3 26 -413 62 7.6 69 -5078 13 148 -224 13 8.7 -187 11 -25-508 50 -182 Storage losses0 -8.9-12-15 -0.4 -12-0.20.0 -4.3-0.1 -53-13-0.50.0 -6.90.0 0.0 0.0 -236 Surplus0 0 -0.20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.0 Storage capacity in TWh0 6.4 3.9 16 0.3 14 0 0 4.9 0 26 14 0.1 0 6.6 0 0 0 207 Pumped storage 0 0 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 CAES0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 Hydrogen0 6.4 0 16 0.3 14 0 0 4.8 0 26 14 0.1 0 6.6 0 0 0 203 Annual district heat from CHP0.1 41 2.0 127 9.5 78 62 49 29 223 107 165 17 4.9 5.2 1.7 0.8 0 1700 Storage input in % of an. Gen. 0 17 7.0 21 1.8 56 0.2 0 28 0.1 14 11 4.5 0 5.5 0 0 0 7.9 1) Annual natural inflow into pumped hydro power plants in Norway

Figure 7.2.3: Power demand, generation and storage capacity in the regions of the EUNA network without transmission restriction (‘0ds’) in TWh.

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

AL_C S_

MK BA_HR_SI AT BE BG CY CZ DN IE

EE_LT _LV FI

FR DE GR HU IT SK LU MT NE NO PL PT RO ES SE CH_LI TR UK U_MD BY DZ MA TN LY EG

TWh Geothermal power Geothermal CHP Pumped hydro in NO: natural inflow Run-of-river hydro (old+mod.) Run-of-river hydro (new) Reservoir hydro Biomass (steam turbine) Biomass (steam turb., CHP) Biomass (biogas CHP) Wind onshore Wind offshore Photovoltaics CSP Residual (gas turbine)Net Import (+) or Export (-) Storage lossesSurplusAnnual power demand in TWh

No residual load must be covered with gas turbines. Luxembourg and Belgium, the two regions that cover a part of their load with gas turbines in the island grid case now cover most of their demand with imports. The input to storage amounts to 465 TWh/a. This is 7.9 % of the total power generation. A transmission system with a capacity-length of 941 TWkm is built.

CSP dominates the power generation in the network; it is applied in all regions that have a CSP potential. France and Greece use all of their CSP potential. Wind power is widely used, but not in all regions. Geothermal energy is used in many regions. Only combined heat and power geothermal plants are built. Biomass is the only energy resource that is used in all regions. Almost everywhere it is used only in CHP plants; only in Greece, Turkey and Egypt biomass steam turbines without heat delivery to a district heating system are used. All regions that have a reservoir hydro potential use it but only Turkey and Finland exploit all of it. No new hydro power plants are built. Run-of-river hydro power plants are used only in Germany where the operating hours are the highest in the total network. PV occurs only in Turkey. 18.7 % of the total generation capacity is ‘residual’, i.e. gas turbines that are never operated in the regarded time period but guarantee the availability of enough capacity to cover peak load at any time. No power is generated in the ‘residual’ gas turbines plants.

Libya, Norway, UK, Algeria, Ireland, Spain, Tunisia and the Baltic region are net power exporters. The annual import and export in Cyprus and Finland is almost balanced. All other regions cover parts of their power demand by imports. The bulk of the import goes to France, Italy, Germany and Turkey. The highest share of imports in the annual power demand occurs in Luxembourg, where 91 % of the annual power demand is covered with imports.

The levelised costs for the power generation in the total network were calculated by dividing the total costs for the power generation by the total power generation. They amount to 0.063 €/kWh. The levelised costs for storage, calculated by dividing the total annual costs for storage by the storage output, amount to 0.176 €/kWh. The levelised costs for transmission are 0.005 €/kWh. They were calculated by dividing the total annual costs for transmission by half of the sum of all imports and exports. The overall levelised electricity costs of the total network, calculated by dividing the total annual system costs by the total annual power demand, amount to 0.069 €/kWh. The costs cannot be separated for each region because the system components in each region can use, provide, store or transport power for or from other regions and these functions cannot clearly be assigned to one region. The levelised power generation, storage, transmission and total electricity costs are shown in figure 7.2.4.

Figure 7.2.4:

Average levelised costs in the power supply network EUNA.

0.000 0.040 0.080 0.120 0.160 0.200

Levelised electricity costs

Levelised power generation costs

Levelised storage costs

Levelised transmission

costs

€/kWh