No transmission: island grids in each region

The annual power generation of all regions in TWh/a is displayed in figure 7.2.1; all numbers are given in table 7.2.1. The capacities and costs are listed in table 10.1.24 and table 10.1.25 in the annex.

The total power demand in all regions amounts to 5497 TWh/a. The total power generation including natural inflow into pumped hydro plants in Norway is 5960 TWh/a. 109 TWh/a of surplus occur and 354 TWh/a are lost in storage plants. The single technologies have the following shares in the overall mix: wind offshore 27.2 %, CSP 22.5 %, wind onshore 14.2 %, GEO_CHP 18.9 %, PV 6.9 %, Biomass overall 5.0 %, hydro overall 4.2 %, Geothermal power 0.9 % and residual load covered by gas turbines 0.3 % (in Luxembourg and Belgium).

The storage input is 716 TWh, which is equal to 12 % of the total power generation. In the single regions, this share varies between 0 % and almost 30 %. Some biomass is used for load balancing in steam turbines without heat delivery; some biomass is used in CHP plants.

Wind power and biomass energy are used in all regions. Geothermal power is generated in all regions with a geothermal potential; almost all of it is CHP. The geothermal CHP potential is completely exploited in many regions. PV is also frequently used. While the reservoir hydro potential is exploited to some extent in all regions that have a hydro reservoir potential, only some regions with a run-of-river hydro potentials do make use of it. No new hydro power capacity is built at all. CSP plants are built in all regions with CSP potential; the potential is fully exploited in France, Greece, Italy and Malta. Of these countries only Italy also fully exploits its PV and wind onshore potential, thus making use of all bare and sparsely vegetated areas that can be used by either one of these technologies. In the analysis of the potentials only one third of the total usable area was assigned to CSP and one third each to wind turbines and PV plants. In France, Greece and Malta it can be expected that even more CSP would be used if the areas had not been reserved for the competing technologies.

Apart from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, all regions install some gas turbines (‘residual’) to fulfil the system reliability restriction. This restriction requires that the available capacity must exceed the peak load at any time, i.e. the sum of the momentary power output of technologies using fluctuating sources and the capacities of the dispatchable technologies multiplied by the respective availability factors must be higher than peak load any time. This restriction leads to a high level of system reliability. It was introduced in order to guarantee the load dispatch also in other years that where not subject of this investigation. The operation of the gas turbines would require the use of a fuel such as methane which can be natural gas or generated from additional renewable energy resources. Overall, 5.5 % of the total installed capacity is ‘residual’. In the single island grids this share varies between 0 % and 55 %. The ‘residual’ gas turbines generate power only in Luxembourg and Belgium. In all other regions the capacity stays unused in the considered time period.

Each region with pumped hydro potential uses pumped hydro and each region with salt caverns uses hydrogen storage. Most regions with salt caverns also use compressed air energy storage. Apart from Morocco no region uses its assumed salt cavern volume completely.

Figure 7.2.2 shows the levelised costs of electricity in each region, calculated by dividing the annual system costs by the annual power demand.

Table 7.2.1: Total annual energy sums in TWh/a and storage capacities in TWh in Europe and North Africa, no transmission (island grids, ‘100ds’).

AL_CS_MK BA_HR_SI AT

2 BE BG CY CZ DN IE EE_LT_LV FI FR DE GR HU IT SK

2 LU

Annual power demand 68 47 49 67 26 4.9 52 51 34 36 76 426 549 62 44 311 29 11 Annual power demand / generation (inc. n. i.1 in NO) in % 96 96 95 86 96 99 96 85 88 92 94 90 90 100 99 94 95 100 Annual gen. (without n. i.1 in NO) 71 49 51 78 28 5.0 54 60 39 39 82 473 612 62 44 329 31 11 Annual gen. (inc. n. i.1 in NO) 71 49 51 78 28 5.0 54 60 39 39 82 473 612 62 44 329 31 11 Geothermal power 0 0 0 0.4 0 0 2.7 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 7.5 0 20 4.8 0 Geothermal CHP 48 28 12 7.4 23 0 20 7.2 0.5 7.8 0 85 169 14 38 77 13 0.4 N. i.1 in NO Run-of-river hydro (old+mod.)15 0 0 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 28 0 0 0 0 0.1 Run-of-river hydro (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reservoir hydro 0 2.6 9.6 0 0 0 1.7 0 0.3 0 2.9 29 2.3 0 0 5.3 0.3 0 Biomass (steam turbine) 2.5 0 0 2.9 0 0.1 5.7 0 0 4.0 11 0 0 2.7 3.9 2.9 0.2 0.2 Biomass (steam turb., CHP) 0 1.7 3.9 0 1.4 0 0.4 1.7 0.7 1.0 9.0 19 16 0 0.2 5.8 1.5 0 Biomass (biogas CHP) 2.2 1.2 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 3.4 2.3 6.3 3.3 0.6 13 11 0.6 1.3 4.9 0.7 0.6 Wind onshore0.2 8.6 19 9.8 0.1 1.2 16 15 11 3.5 13 0 43 11 0.4 88 5.9 0.8 Wind offshore3.4 0 0 24 2.4 0 0 34 20 17 33 314 310 0 0 0 0 0 Photovoltaic0 7.4 5.8 22 0.3 0.7 4.4 0 0 1.7 0.2 1.8 33 10 0 66 4.0 0.7 CSP 0 0 0 0 0 2.9 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 16 0 60 0 0 Residual (gas turbine)0 0 0 8.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.0 Import (+) / export (-)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Storage losses0 -1.7-2-0.5-1.1 0 -0.1-7.5-4.7-0.2 0 -46-520 0 -17-1.40 Surplus-2.80 -0.3-100 0 -2.1 -1.70 -3.1 -5.3 -1.1-11-0.2 -0.3-1.20 0 Storage capacity in TWh0 1.1 1.9 0 1.1 0 0 3.3 1.8 0 0 23 19 0 0 12 1.1 0 Pumped storage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 CAES0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0.1 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 Hydrogen0 1.1 1.8 0 1.1 0 0 3.2 1.8 0 0 23 19 0 0 12 1.1 0 Annual district heat from CHP82 52 37 17 41 0.1 43 20 11 23 27 229 355 23 55 166 29 1.4 Storage input in % of an. Gen. 0 9.5 10 3.5 8.8 0 1.0 27 27 2.4 0 19 19 0 0 11 11 0 1)Annual natural inflow into pumped hydro power plants in Norway 2)Belgium and Luxembourg: no 100 % domestic renewable supply, domestic renewable energy carriers complemented with other fuels used in gas turbines.

Table 7.2.1 (continued): Total annual energy sums in TWh/a and storage capacities in TWh in Europe and North Africa, no transmission (island grids, ‘100ds’).

MT NE NO PL PT RO ES SE CH_LI TR UK U_MD BY DZ MA TN LY EG Total

Annual power demand 2.9 116 112 191 62 96 320 154 40 494 451 237 52 249 235 66 44 631 5497 Annual power demand / generation (inc. n. i.1 in NO) in % 53 83 71 94 92 93 94 90 96 99 87 91 81 93 91 93 100 100 92 Annual gen. (without n. i.1 in NO) 5.5 139 111 204 68 103 341 170 41 498 519 260 64 266 258 71 44 631 5912 Annual gen. (inc. n. i.1 in NO) 5.5 139 158 204 68 103 341 170 41 498 519 260 64 266 258 71 44 631 5960 Geothermal power 0 0 0 0 0 17.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.9 0 0 0 0 0 55 Geothermal CHP 0 24 0 121 0.1 35 34 0 16 197 39 104 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 1124 N. i.1 in NO 47 47 Run-of-river hydro (old + mod.) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 107 Run-of-river hydro (new) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reservoir hydro 0 0 0 0.4 2.8 0 17 3.9 16 2.0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 97 Biomass (steam turbine) 0.03 0 0.6 0 0 0 0 21 0 16 0 0 0 0 2.4 0 0.4 3.6 80 Biomass (steam turb., CHP) 0 1.3 0 7.5 2.7 4.7 7.8 6.8 0.6 0 7.6 8.0 1.7 1.7 0 0.6 0 0 113 Biomass (biogas CHP) 0.02 4.2 0.5 5.7 1.1 2.6 4.9 1.0 1.1 7.3 6.3 9.2 3.8 0 0 0 0 0 103 Wind onshore0 0 0 28 5.8 0 26 22 6.8 55 103 120 48 21 6.3 5.2 8.7 145 848 Wind offshore4.4 110 109 40 12 27 55 64 0 42 364 5.4 0 0 0 1.2 0 26 1618 Photovoltaic0.5 0 0 1.8 6.8 16 31 0 0.5 71 0 13 4.2 53 44 9.3 0.1 0 409 CSP 0.5 0 0 0 36 0 164 0 0 109 0 0 0 190 206 55 35 457 1341 Residual (gas turbine)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Import (+) / export (-) or ‘total’: transmission losses0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Storage losses0 -20-14-12 -5.6-6.9 -200 -1.8-0.2 -68-18-6.5-17-23-5.20 0 -354 Surplus-2.6-3.3-32-1.60 -0.1 0 -160 -3.3-0.5-4.6-5.70 0 0 0 -0.1-109 Storage capacity in TWh0 9.2 2.2 5.1 5.4 3.1 21 0 2.1 0 29 4.3 1.9 16 16 4.9 0 0 186 Pumped storage 0 0 2.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.5 CAES0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0 0 0 0 1.6 Hydrogen0 9.1 0 4.9 5.4 3.1 21 0 2.1 0 29 4.1 1.8 15 16 4.9 0 0 182 Annual district heat from CHP0 52 0.6 225 9.5 85 93 21 36 305 107 223 18 4.9 0 1.7 0 0 2391 Storage input in % of an. Gen. 0 30 4.8 13 16 16 11 0 8.6 0.3 26 15 24 14 16 13 0 0 12 1) Annual natural inflow into pumped hydro power plants in Norway

Figure 7.2.1: Power demand and generation in TWh/a; storage capacity in TWh in the regions in Europe and North Africa; no transmission (‘100ds’).

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

AL_CS_MK BA_HR_SI AT BE BG CY CZ

DN IE

EE_LT_LV FI

FR DE GR HU IT SK LU MT NE NO PL PT RO ES SE CH_LI TR UK U_MD BY DZ

MA TN LY EG

TWh Geothermal power Geothermal CHP Pumped hydro in NO: natural inflow Run-of-river hydro (old+mod.) Run-of-river hydro (new) Reservoir hydro Biomass (steam turbine) Biomass (steam turb., CHP) Biomass (biogas CHP) Wind onshore Wind offshore Photovoltaics CSP Residual (gas turbine)Net Import (+) or Export (-) Storage lossesSurplusAnnual power demand in TWh

In Norway the electric power is supplied at the lowest costs of 0.062 €/kWh with a mixture of wind and hydro power and some biomass. The highest costs of 0.169 €/kWh occur in Luxemburg, where 8 TWh/a out of 10.9 TWh/a are generated in gas turbines with e.g. natural gas because the domestic renewable resources can not cover the power demand. The LEC for the power from the gas turbines in Luxembourg are 0.206 €/kWh, 0.198 €/kWhel for the gas and only 0.08 €/kWh for the turbine which is operated for 5062 full load hours. In Malta the LEC of 0.158 €/kWh are only slightly lower than in Luxembourg. In Malta no pumped hydro and no salt caverns for CAES or hydrogen storage are available. The energy mix here is 80 % offshore wind at costs of 0.063 €/kWh, 9.4 % PV power at costs of 0.062 €/kWh.

9.6 % are provided by CSP plants and the remaining 1 % is provided by biomass steam turbines and by biogas plants with combined heat and power generation. The balancing of the fluctuations of the load, wind and PV generation is performed by the CSP and biomass power plants, which have very low full load hours of operation of 1456 h (CSP), 468 h (biomass, steam turbine) and 880 h (biogas plant with CHP). The levelised electricity costs of all regions lie between 0.062 €/kWh and 0.169 €/kWh, without Malta and Luxembourg they lie between 0.062 €/kWh and 0.109 €/kWh (Sweden). The average LEC calculated by dividing the cumulated annual system costs of all regions by the cumulated annual power demand of all regions are 0.083 €/kWh (category ‘all’ in figure 7.2.2).