Results for SSAFRICA

SSAFRICA is analysed as a third region which is a developing area with an increasing contribu-tion to both global TPES and TFC. Its energy system is described in Table 13. SSAFRICA strongly relies on biomass energy. The share of non-commercial biomass however decreases over the time horizon. Electricity generation strongly increases and the electricity mixes vary strongly between the three scenarios. Similarly, the shares of fossil fuels in TPES and the CO2 emissions strongly depend on the scenario. The performance of SSAFRICA regarding the environmental, economic and social indicators is presented in Figure 45, Figure 46 and Figure 47, respectively.

The fossil energy use of SSAFRICA increases towards 2030 and further by 2060. The increase is particularly related to the consumption of oil and natural gas. Unfinished SYMPHONY has the lowest fossil fuel use, but the highest nuclear resource use. The level of nuclear energy is and stays at a very low level in all scenarios. WD increases strongly in all scenarios as biomass ener-gy is an important and growing enerener-gy resource in SSAFRICA (lowest in Hard ROCK scenario).

As indicated by the fossil resource use, the increasing combustion of oil and natural gas results in higher CO2 emissions for 2060 compared to 2010 for all scenarios (+181%, +67% and +302%

in Modern JAZZ, Unfinished SYMPHONY and Hard ROCK, respectively). GHG emissions also in-crease – even more than the CO2 emissions – due to the contribution of other GHG emissions. TA increases in all scenarios over the time horizon considered (+171%, +104% and +337% in Modern JAZZ, Unfinished SYMPHONY and Hard ROCK, respectively). Major contributors are coal – particularly in Hard ROCK – and biomass furnaces as well as diesel motors in industry.

4.3. Results ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

95 Table 13: TPES, TFC, electricity generation and CO2 emissions in the three scenarios in SSAFRICA

Modern JAZZ Unfinished SYMPHONY Hard ROCK

TPESTFC

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Modern JAZZ Unfinished SYMPHONY Hard ROCK

Electrictiy generationCO2 emissions

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97 Unfinished SYMPHONY has lower FE in 2030 and 2060 (-54%) due to the reduction in coal min-ing compared to 2010, while Modern JAZZ has a more or less constant level of coal minmin-ing and thus a lower FE reduction over the considered time horizon (-22%). Hard ROCK instead builds on an increasing share of coal in TPES which leads to an amplified FE, particularly in 2060 (+97% compared to 2010). ALO quickly reaches a plateau based on exhausting the biomass po-tential of SSAFRICA.

Figure 45: Performance of the three scenarios regarding environmental indicators in SSAFRICA.

The abbreviations are explained in Table 8.

The grid investments are higher in all scenarios in 2060 than in 2010. The capital investments in the power sector are expanded in all scenarios over the time horizon considered due to the higher share of electricity in TFC. The fuels in transport are more than 95% oil-based for all scenarios and time periods. The energy intensity of the economy (INT) is improved over the time period considered as the increase in TPES is more than compensated for by the increase in GDP. Thus, Unfinished SYMPHONY (-88%) and Modern JAZZ (-91%) perform particularly well

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in 2060. The GDP per capita increases for all scenarios, but Modern JAZZ performs better than the other two scenarios.

Figure 46: Performance of the three scenarios regarding economic indicators in SSAFRICA. The abbreviations are explained in Table 8.

Energy carrier imports and their share of the TPES remain on a low level for all scenarios and time steps. It is mostly oil that is imported from other world regions. Starting from a power gen-eration system without renewable energies, their share constantly increases reaching the high-est levels in Unfinished SYMPHONY (44%).

The increased deployment of biomass technologies as well as diesel motors and coal furnaces in industry increases the level PMF over the time horizon (+266% +192% and +420% in Modern JAZZ, Unfinished SYMPHONY and Hard ROCK, respectively). HT also increases by 2060 (+149%, +117% and +198% in Modern JAZZ, Unfinished SYMPHONY and Hard ROCK, respectively). Ma-jor contributors to HT are biomass combustion, oil-based freight transport and coal mining. The increase in POF can be mainly allocated to biomass technologies, which are increasingly

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99 ployed over the considered time horizon (+172%, +118% and +265% in Modern JAZZ, Unfin-ished SYMPHONY and Hard ROCK, respectively).

The expected mortality in severe accidents is driven by the transport of energy carriers. It in-creases for all scenarios by 2060 (+210%, +169% and +316% in Modern JAZZ, Unfinished SYM-PHONY and Hard ROCK, respectively) particularly due to more hydro power generation and oil T&D. The indicator for the maximum consequences of severe accidents is dominated by the oil chain. It increases in all scenarios due to the strong increase in oil consumption of SSAFRICA by 2060. The region’s quality of life (according to the two indicators in Table 9) also improves: The number of cars per capita increases by a factor of 5 to 6 for all scenarios from 2010 to 2060 as the number of cars grows more than the number of people. Starting from a comparably high level of people without access to clean energy, the situation has already improved in 2030 but even more so in 2060. Hard ROCK lags in this respect compared to the other two scenarios (+75% compared to +92% for Modern JAZZ and +90% for Unfinished SYMPHONY).

Figure 47: Performance of the three scenarios regarding social indicators in SSAFRICA. The abbre-viations are explained in Table 9.

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4.4. Discussion