Results for CHINAREG

In all three scenarios presented in Sections 4.3.1 to 4.3.3, CHINAREG had the highest contribu-tion to the global TPES and TFC and is therefore of particular interest. The modelling region CHINAREG includes China, Macau and Mongolia. Its energy systems in the three scenarios are presented in Table 11, based on the TPES, TFC, electricity generation and CO2 emissions. TPES and TFC peak in the time period analysed in all three scenarios. In the same period, the electrici-ty generation grows strongly, particularly low-carbon power generation. The CO2 emissions peak in 2020 to 2030 and decrease more or less afterwards depending on the scenario. CHINA-REG’s performance regarding the set of sustainability indicators is presented in Figure 39 (envi-ronment), Figure 40 (economy) and Figure 41 (society).

The fossil resource use increases in all scenarios by 2030, but decreases towards 2060 reaching lower (-36% in Unfinished SYMPHONY) or similar (Hard ROCK and Modern JAZZ) levels than in 2010. Coal use is particularly reduced towards the mid-century. The use of nuclear energy re-sources for power generation instead is strongly increased in all scenarios and reaches particu-larly high levels in Unfinished SYMPHONY and Hard ROCK.

82

Table 11: TPES, TFC, electricity generation and CO2 emissions in the three scenarios in CHINAREG

Modern JAZZ Unfinished SYMPHONY Hard ROCK

TPESTFC

continues on the next page

4.3. Results ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

83 continued from previous page

Modern JAZZ Unfinished SYMPHONY Hard ROCK

Electricity generationCO2 emissions

84

The level of water use is more or less constant in the three scenarios and over the time horizon.

Direct water use, which is mainly in coal mining, is reduced over time, while the indirect contri-bution of biomass cultivation increases with the increase in the use of biomass technologies.

Figure 39: Performance of the three scenarios regarding environmental indicators in CHINAREG.

The abbreviations are explained in Table 8.

After short-term increase in all three scenarios due to use of coal, CO2 emissions drop towards the end of this century due to the phase-out of coal, particularly in Unfinished SYMPHONY (-72%). GHG emissions have similar trends to CO2 emissions, but the reductions by 2060 are low-er (-5% for Modlow-ern JAZZ, -29% for Unfinished SYMPHONY and -10% for Hard ROCK). TA is driven by coal use for heat and power. Due to the reduction in coal use for these purposes, the impact is reduced by 2060 (-37% for Modern JAZZ, -68% for Unfinished SYMPHONY and -40%

for Hard ROCK).

Coal mining is the major contributor to FE. Therefore, the indicator is lowest for the low-coal Unfinished SYMPHONY pathway (-28% in 2060 compared to 2010) and highest for the Hard ROCK pathway (+4% in 2060 compared to 2010). ALO is highest for Unfinished SYMPHONY due

4.3. Results ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

85 to the expansion of biomass energy by 2060 (+92%). In contrast, it is almost constant for Hard ROCK (-1%) which has a stable contribution of biomass to TPES.

Compared to the other years in the time period analysed, 2030 has low investments in T&D in-frastructure which leads to lower T&D investments per unit of electricity produced and trans-mitted. The reason for the lower investments is the decentralised solar PV power generation which makes up a large share of the capacity expansion by 2030. Compared to 2010, the T&D investments in 2060 are 22% and 19% higher for Modern JAZZ and Unfinished SYMPHONY, respectively, and 10% lower for Hard ROCK. Similarly, the capital investments in the power sector in 2030 are low compared to the other time periods due to lower investment in less capi-tal intensive technologies (gas, solar PV, and wind instead of oil and coal). In 2060, the invest-ments in the power sector are higher than in all previous periods.

The share of oil in transport fuels decreases by 2030 in all three scenarios. Towards 2060 alter-native fuels enter the fuel mix, particularly electricity and natural gas. The share of oil-based fuels remains highest in the Hard ROCK scenario, which has the lowest CO2 costs among the three scenarios. The energy efficiency of the economy, i.e. the ratio of TPES and GDP (INT), in-creases for all scenarios over the time horizon considered. Compared to 2010, Unfinished SYM-PHONY and Modern JAZZ profit from increasing GDP and decreasing TPES and reduce the inten-sity by 85% and 86% respectively. The GDP per capita increases in all scenarios. Due to the identical population development, the difference between the scenarios is driven by the GDP development, which is highest for Modern JAZZ and lowest for Unfinished SYMPHONY.

The energy carrier imports of the Hard ROCK scenario stay low over the time horizon consid-ered in accordance with the storyline. In Modern JAZZ and Unfinished SYMPHONY, there is an increase in oil imports and later also an increase in natural gas imports. In 2060, the import share of Unfinished SYMPHONY reaches 2010 levels, while the share stays at a high level (29%) in Modern JAZZ. All scenarios describe strongly increased and continuously growing shares of renewable power generation. Consistent with the storyline, Unfinished SYMPHONY has the highest share of renewable power generation, while Hard ROCK lags behind.

86

Figure 40: Performance of the three scenarios regarding economic indicators in CHINAREG. The abbreviations are explained in Table 8.

After an medium increase, PMF decreases in all scenarios by 2060. With the reduction in coal use, Unfinished SYMPHONY follows the lowest trajectory (-61% in 2060 compared to 2010).

Modern JAZZ (-23%) performs worse than Hard ROCK (-36%) due to the use of more diesel generating sets. The HT level increases in Modern JAZZ (+24%), Unfinished SYMPHONY (+8%) and Hard ROCK (+19%) by 2060 compared to 2010. While the direct contribution from coal combustion decreases, the indirect contributions from coal mining (heavy metal emissions from spoils), biomass heating systems (ash disposal) and oil-based freight transport (brake wear emissions) increase. The POF is driven by the combustion of coal for heat and power and indus-trial diesel motors. Due to the wide application of indusindus-trial diesel motors and coal furnaces in Modern JAZZ, the overall impact is not reduced by 2060 compared to 2010 (+3%). In contrast, POF decreases in Unfinished SYMPHONY (-45%) and Hard ROCK (-28%).

The mortality in severe accidents in the energy sector in CHINAREG is mainly driven by coal mining. After an increase of mortality in 2020 and 2030 it decreases for all scenarios by 2060,

4.3. Results ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

87 particularly for the Unfinished SYMPHONY (-67%) and to a lesser extent in Modern JAZZ (-23%) due to the strong reduction in coal use. The maximum consequences of severe accidents in the energy sector are highest in Hard ROCK and dominated by the contribution of the oil sector.

With the strong increase in oil consumption in the midterm, the indicator also increases tempo-rarily for all scenarios. The quality of life indicators (according to the two indicators in Table 9) improve in all three scenarios: The level of cars per capita grows in step. The access to clean energy improves by 2060 compared to 2010, but – while Unfinished SYMPHONY (+81%) and Modern JAZZ (+85%) reach very high access levels – Hard ROCK (+63%) lags behind.

Figure 41: Performance of the three scenarios regarding social indicators in CHINAREG. The ab-breviations are explained in Table 9.