Low Yields
Crop yields are a significant factor in food insecurity in the region especially East Africa.
Land and Rainfall
The large potential for expansion of arable land in East Africa will be primary met by expanding cultivated land by clearing of bush areas. Between 1980 and 2000, cultivated land areas expanded by 50 per cent in East Africa. Another source indicates that potential arable land actually in use in the Nile region is much lower. In the Nile basin, the highest rate of potential arable land in use is in Ethiopia at 34 per cent and the lowest in Uganda at 13 per cent.
Shifting rainfall patterns and inadequate rainfall cause crop failure, having the most detrimental impact
on food security. In 2003, precipitation in Ethiopia was at a record low of below 650 mm which led to over 11 million people being dependent on food aid. Rain-fed agricultural production accounts for 90 per cent of agricultural production and so droughts have a highly detrimental impact on regional food security. East Africa will experience both crop gains and losses as a result of climate change. Crop yields for staples such as maize and beans will double in the Highlands as rising temperatures will accelerate crop maturity. On the other hand, both dry and humid regions will witness crop losses with as much as 20 per cent crop yield losses predicted in the regions of coastal Kenya, Northeast and Northwest Tanzania and Central Uganda by 2050. Besides coastal Kenya, the other regions are in the Nile River Basin.
Adapting agricultural systems, water harvesting, expanding livestock production in ASAL areas and keeping farmers abreast of modern and cost effective technologies via mobile phones and internet can help achieve food security in the region.
Biofuel Production Plans and Land Allocated
Country Rwanda Burundi Tanzania Kenya
Uganda Sudan
South Sudan Ethiopia
Egypt
Planned Production
Plans 20 million litres production on 10,000 hectares (marginal land) No Data
641,179 hectares have been allocated by government for biofuel production
23 million litres of ethanol, 34 MW from Tana integrated sugar project alone; at least 58,000 hectares allotted in 3 projects for biofuels and sugarcane (ethanol) 75,000 hectares of prime forest land (mabira) has been allotted by the government
$1 billion ethanol plant in Kenana, annual 45 million litres capacity since March 2012, stalled in July due to low EU demand
No Data
Future plans to produce 20 million litres; at least 55,000 hectares have been contracted by the government
At least 50,000 hectares slated for biofuels production
Blue Peace for the Nile 63
Country Rwanda Burundi Tanzania Uganda Kenya Sudan + South Sudan Ethiopia Egypt World Average
Banana - 5.21 4.98 4.56 14.42 32.51 7.09 39.58 15.6
Potatoes 8.22 2.64 6.25 6.90 7.93 16.89 8.36 24.18 15.1
Coffee 0.70 0.72 0.40 0.69 0.34 - 0.83 -
-Sweet Potatoes 5.72 6.57 2.13 4.37 9.53 13.39 8.94 27.45 11.6
Barley - - 2.20 - 2.83 - 1.14 2.43
-Sorghum 1.00 1.26 0.87 1.45 0.82 0.63 1.32 5.71 1.39
Maize 0.80 1.09 1.70 1.64 1.65 0.82 1.83 7.74 4.73
Tea 1.26 0.86 1.43 1.77 2.26 - 0.95 - 1.1
Cassava 5.72 8.65 7.63 12.78 8.54 1.73 - - 10.1
Sugarcane 27.66 70.05 104.37 87.98 83.72 92.70 95.60 118.67 67.02
Millet 0.80 1.09 0.80 1.57 0.57 0.27 1.02 - 0.86
Wheat 0.76 0.81 1.39 1.74 139.493 2.40 0.41 6.39 2.72
Average Yield (tonnes/ hectare) from 1998 - 2007
64 Food Security
Relationship between Precipitation and Food Aid - Ethiopia
500
The impact of civil conflict on food security is waning in Rwanda. But its impact is still experienced in a post-conflict Burundi that is facing more structural constraints in transitioning from conflict. The conflict over the new borders of Sudan and South Sudan is a major reason for crop failure and eventual food insecurity in the region.
There is a strong linkage between drought and civil conflict leading to food insecurity, as drought, low agricultural productivity and civil conflict together compound the instance of crop failure. Delayed or short rainfall season combined with escalating armed conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, which are usually net surplus producers, has cut the annual food staples production of Sudan by 50 per cent economy with stagnant agricultural growth. Only 28 per cent of the population is considered food secure.
Although Burundi’s food production per person is high in the Nile river basin at 105.1 kg/person/year, the agricultural sector is hampered by poor farming
practices and rising food prices. Burundi’s poverty rate is 68 per cent and chronic malnutrition rate is 60 per cent. Burundi is affected by the La Nina effect which has brought about drought conditions in Central Africa, worsening food security in the region. World Food Programme provided aid to 50,000 households in 2010. The country needs $200 million in investment to boost its food security.
While Somalia is not in the Nile river basin, its fortunes are mixed with Ethiopia’s food production and supply due to informal food trade across the Ethiopia-Somalia border. As Ethiopia has depended on food aid for over three decades and its government is in the process of employing safety-nets and work-for-food schemes to reduce dependency on food aid, illegal food exports to Somalia can pressurise supplies in Ethiopia.
Rising Food Prices
Rising food prices due to increasing food demand and decreasing production are strongly linked with poverty increase as escalating food prices reduce purchasing power. As the poor population of East Africa spends 50 to 70 per cent of their disposable income on food, rising food prices leads to reduced food consumption as well as fall in nutrition levels. Despite improving cereal production due to favourable rainfall in 2010-2011, food prices increased in Africa in conjunction with global food price. This increase for the second time since 2007/2008 has led to over 6 million people getting dependent on food aid in Kenya and Ethiopia alone.
Poverty and environment are locked in a vicious circle such that poverty is both the agent as well as the victim of environment degradation. World Food Programme statistics of 2006 showed that only 22 per cent of the Rwandan population was food secure; the remaining had little or no access to food supply. Over 45 per cent of the children under the age of five are undernourished. Subsistence, rain-fed agriculture,
Blue Peace for the Nile 65
erratic rainfall, low soil fertility, poor farming methods, high prevalence of HIV/AIDs are all responsible for food insecurity.
All Nile River basin countries classify as low income food deficit countries. Increasing food prices do not result in increasing food production in East Africa due to limited arable land availability, limited irrigation, high fertilizer prices, inability to get loans and insurance and low motivation to take risk due to poor returns on investment. Investment in irrigation expansion is prohibitive for the agrarian-based economies that rely on 95 per cent of their production on rain-fed subsistence crops. The Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Programme has targeted 100,000 hectares of prime land for irrigation expansion in Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia which will be developed as part of NBI. A similar wetland watershed irrigation project has been undertaken by Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Programme in Tanzania and better agricultural systems for water efficiency and cropping patterns that prevent land degradation are being applied in the Kagera River Basin, also by NELSAP in conjunction with Kagera River Transboundary Integrated Water Resources Management and Development.
Need for Irrigation Expansion
All of the above factors will lead to a demand in irrigation for achieving food security which will increase pressure on regional water resources.
Currently, 95 per cent of the current production is from rain-fed agriculture and substantial irrigation is in place only in Egypt and Sudan.
In the countries belonging to the Nile basin, potential arable land is 54 million hectares. Except for Egypt, less than 10 per cent of it is irrigated. Total irrigated land is 6.5 million. Out of this, Egypt and Sudan account for almost 5.5 million hectares and all the remaining countries account for 1 million hectares.
Total irrigation potential in the basin is almost 15
million hectares. Egypt and Sudan have irrigated 5.5 million hectares and can at best irrigate additional 1 million hectares each. Thus, all upper riparian countries have untapped potential to increase irrigated land by 7-8 million hectares.
International Food Policy Research Institute has calculated that it may cost about US$ 29 billion to add irrigated area by 5 million hectares. At this rate, if the potential to irrigate 7-8 million hectares in upper riparian countries is to be tapped, approximately US$ 50 billion of financial resources will be required.
Ethiopia alone has the potential to increase irrigated area by 3.5 million hectares if it can raise US$ 25 billion.
The challenge of food security is thus closely linked with the challenge of irrigation and resource mobilisation. It is not the only challenge in the Nile Basin. Other developmental challenges will also require billions of dollars in the next decade or so.
66 Food Security
Country Rwanda Burundi Tanz
ania Kenya Uganda Sudan Ethiopia Egypt Country Total
Total Area of Country (in million hectares) 2.6 2.8 88.6 58.3 23.7 250.5 111.6 99.5 637
Irrigation Potential (in thousand hectares) 165 209 2300 540 560 3000 3700 4400 14900
Irrigated Area 2010
(in thousand hectares)
9 104 381 140 67 1900 410 3500 6500
Potential Arable Land (%) 38.15 37.33 10.25 8.97 26.08 6.87 10.93 2.82 8.58
Irrigation Potential as per cent of Arable Land 16.42 20.11 25.32 10.33 9.06 17.42 30.57 156.74
-Irrigated Area as per cent of Arable Land
0.89 10.05 4.19 2.67 1.09 11.03 3.36 124.68
-Potential Arable Land (in million hectares) 1 1 9 5 6 17 12 3 54
Water
Withdrawal (agriculture) (in BCM) 0.102 0.231 4.425 2.165 0.295 23 5.204 44 79.422
Irrigation Potential