As we move to a conclusion in this theoretical section, two particularly difficult trade-offs present themselves in terms of external support to more fragile countries. The first relates to the relationship between democracy and develop-ment, and the second to the role of the private sector.
At the levels of destitution experienced in many ‘more fragile’ countries, democracy and development make for uneasy bedfellows. Despite vast amounts of research by democracy advocacy groups, Western governments and the academic community in free societies, there is no established relationship between the two, although there are clear correlations between transparency and government effectiveness, etc. Clearly, democracy is a deep driver of develop-ment, and causality is complex and difficult to prove empirically. This does not make democracy less important, but the question remains one of at what pace democratic evolution with all its trappings, imperfections and complexities should be pursued in the absence of development. On the one hand, human rights are indivisible and apply equally to all. On the other, the provision of the most basic of human needs – food, shelter and protection – responds to basic human rights in the most practical of ways. In the provision of support and the development of an appropriate development path for these countries, partners need to discuss the speed at which political, social and economic emancipation can proceed, ensuring appropriate balance at all times, and be prepared to follow the lead of the host country within certain boundaries, difficult as that may be.
At an early stage of development the state is inordinately important for every aspect of life. There is little separation between the government and governing elites, and control of the state/government directly translates into economic opportunity. Over time this relationship changes and eventually, as economic
development occurs, the role of the state declines. First there is separation between politics and government, and eventually between the economy and the state. Whereas the state is very important in economic development and hugely influential in poverty alleviation, education, service provision, jobs, etc.
at the early and even mid-stages of development, this role changes over time.
Eventually in advanced democracies the role of the state is supplanted in most economic aspects – and rightly so – by the private sector, which has much greater potential for wealth creation.
Similar to the state, if unaccountable, the private sector is a huge source of corruption if unchecked by due process, clarity on the rule of law and effective oversight – which is the situation in most of Africa’s more fragile countries.
Eventually it is the private and not the public sector that drives development, but the role of foreign multi-nationals in particular requires careful consideration in a fragile context.
Conclusion
The purpose of this section was to make explicit the approach to fragility for the purposes, in the next section but one, of using the IFs forecasting system as an aid to look to the long-term future. ‘Fragility’, it has been argued, can be fruitfully understood and studied as a system and a syndrome, and a simple distinction between ‘fragile’ and ‘not fragile’ is not persuasive.
Before embarking on this process, we create our own list of ‘more fragile’ and
‘more resilient’ countries in the following section for the purposes of forecasting.
Many countries that seem stable could well see moments of fragility emanating from natural disasters or localised conflict (e.g. even local urban rioting in Western countries has called forth the fragility concept in seemingly consoli-dated, developed countries); indeed, recent local-level urban rioting can be noted in countries that typically contend for the top spots on global rankings of state capacities (e.g. more recently in Sweden).
Figure 5 presents a simplified diagram of the statebuilding process for the purposes of this monograph, reflecting the extent to which government institutions, policies, and implementation are limited and weak in fragile states, versus an idealised status where effective and accountable governance is delivered through stable institutions. Much of the analysis and subsequent recommendations speaks to the importance of support to the endogenous
process of state formation and the necessarily limited contribution of external statebuilding efforts.
Figure 5: Idealised presentation of statebuilding
Violence and w ar
Ine
quality and exclusio
Go n
emrnve
nt institutions, policies and
impaletmen
n tio Elite pact or peace agreement
Stability and secur ity
Sus taina
ble developmen t Effective, accountable governance through stable
institutions Declining levels of chronic poverty
Progress to less fragility
This section draws up a list of ‘more fragile’ countries in Africa. In doing so it is recognised that the associated dividing lines are subject to judgement and perspective.
In recent years the AfDB and World Bank have increased their collaboration, including in their identification of and response to fragile and conflict-affected countries in Africa, as well as expanding their associated efforts. In July 2013 the World Bank published its most recent ‘harmonised list of fragile situations’
(reflecting the harmonisation of the World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment – CPIA – score with that of the African and Asian Development Banks) for the 2014 financial year.94
The CPIA rates countries against a set of 16 criteria grouped in four clusters:
(1) economic management; (2) structural policies; (3) policies for social inclusion and equity; and (4) public sector management and institutions. For each criterion, countries are rated on a scale of 1 (very weak performance) to 6 (very strong performance). A country is classified as ‘fragile and conflict-affected’ if it has a CPIA score of 3,2 or less, or has had a UN or regional peacekeeping or peace-building mission in the previous three years. Countries that are weak performers on the CPIA are considered to be fragile in terms of two important dimensions: