FUSION
Fusion is the other bookend, portraying what we see as the most plausible best case. This is a world in which the specter of a spreading conflict in South Asia triggers efforts by the US and China to intervene and impose a cease-fire. China and the US find other issues to collaborate on, leading to a sea change in their bilateral relations, as well as to broader worldwide cooperation on global challenges. This scenario would only be possible through strong political leadership that overrules cautious domestic constituencies and forges stronger international partnerships. As a result, trust between societies and civilizations would increase.
In a Fusion world, economic growth resumes as the initial collaboration on security is widened to include intellectual property and innovation to deal with resource issues and climate change. China, bolstered by the increasing role it is playing in the international system, begins a process of political reform. With the
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Subject: Inaugural Address Transcript
if you had asked me anytime during the second decade of the 21st century, i would have told you that we were headed into a world catastrophe. it felt like what we read about the runup to the First World War when there were mounting frictions between the great powers. in this case there was sparring between China and india, China and the Us, and the Us and europe over Middle east policy and among the Us, india, and Pakistan over Afghanistan.
talk about the Great Game—everybody seemed to be playing it despite knowing the harm it was doing to the global economy. the West was having a bad economic decade. the needed political and structural reforms in both the Us and europe were taking time to produce a payoff. Much of europe was dealing with the dramatic aging of its population. the United states was bogged down in long-running
partisan debates.
the surprise was China. everyone assumed that it would continue to advance. no one anticipated the leadership’s decisionmaking paralysis and how the internal wrangling was taking a toll on China’s economic growth. As Metternich was wont to say about France at the Congress of vienna, if China sneezes everyone else catches a cold.
China did more than make everyone get an economic cold. China’s leaders—despite or maybe because of the downturn—ramped up military spending, causing everyone’s nerves to get on edge.
in this environment of slowing global growth and increasing distrust, indo-Pakistani tensions also flared: in a year of drought, Pakistan accused india of holding back much-needed relief with its refusal to open its dams along the indus. delhi viewed the increased militant infiltration in Kashmir as a Pakistani provocation. it also detected islamabad’s hand in a plot by extremists to blow up the Mumbai stock exchange. india mobilized its army.
the major powers were scrambling. Beijing sent a secret envoy to Washington with a cease-fire plan. together the Us and China brought the plan to the Un security Council. China promised to inject massive amounts of humanitarian and development aid if Pakistan ceased further retaliation. the Us and europe threatened massive
Center for Global InteGratIon
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sanctions if india did not withdraw. the Us and China are cosponsoring peace talks in Geneva to settle issues such as Kashmir and Pakistani support for militant groups.
no one would have predicted such a positive outcome. A lot depended on the personal ties between Us and Chinese leaders. Both leaderships disregarded the objections raised by mid-level bureaucrats to cooperating with the other and have been awarded nobel Peace Prizes for their joint initiative. the leaders saw the danger of a major war for everyone’s future and acted. they also wanted to do more: hence their decision to ignite a global technological revolution.
developing technological solutions to major challenges had an electrifying effect, particularly for younger generations. Whereas the 2010s were all “doom and gloom,” the 2020s turned suddenly into a golden age for technology. Mechanisms for global sharing of innovation were established by China and the United states.
Global education exchanges flourished like never before. turkey, russia, and israel, for example, became creative hotbeds for cross-cultural fertilization. Knowledge industries spread into Africa and latin America.
in this collaborative environment, a global consensus for action on clean energy and food security emerged. Us labs led in producing new materials to support improved energy storage. scientists based in india worked on more decentralized energy systems serving rural areas. Brazil became the center for work on a new green revolution.
the Gulf states have seen the writing on the wall and are rapidly diversifying their economies. their efforts to develop strong universities—which began with Us and Western help—have paid off for the region. the Gulf states now have a highly trained and entrepreneurial elite. A sort of contagion took hold—somewhat along the lines of what happened in Asia in the 1970s and 1980s—and the Middle east is experiencing rapid economic development.
years from now i think that historians will see changing immigration and mobility as the foundation for the growing political and technological cooperation. For good or for ill, a cosmopolitan elite with ties to multiple countries has formed: these elites are comfortable working and living in multiple places. even the less skilled are more mobile, filling in gaps in many aging societies. the increasing spread of biometrics has meant that government authorities can now easily track flows of people. the number of “illegals” in America or europe has dropped. As a result, governments are more confident about allowing expanded flows of workers.
there is less talk of declinism—the United states’ or europe’s. World attention is now 2
more focused on how to protect the biosphere given the rampant growth unleashed by greater international cooperation. Plant and insect species are dying off at an alarming rate due to the rampant urbanization and agricultural revolutions. the size of the middle class has exploded across the globe. even Western middle classes are getting richer. it is a never-ending cycle. new technologies are replacing or making available resources go farther, but the growing number of nouveau riche are causing cities to swell and rural areas to depopulate. other environmental concerns have also become troubling. several recent typhoons have been unusually powerful, causing an unprecedented number of deaths and greater physical destruction than ever before.
Arctic ice melted at a far more rapid rate than anticipated, and rampant exploitation of resources in the Arctic has begun. Methane gas levels are rising rapidly, exacerbating climate change scientists’ fears.
south Asia is still a concern. Cooperation elsewhere and pressure from other powers such as China and the Us have persuaded the indians and Pakistanis to increase their strategic dialogue and to begin to open trade flows. india’s rapid economic expansion fuels distrust, suspicion, and envy among Pakistanis. Pakistan has not ceased its nuclear modernization program, and Afghanistan is a still a battleground for competing interests.
A page has been turned in human history—no more competition over resources . . . In 2028, the Editor of the New marxist review launched a competition for the best short essay on the meaning of Marx and Communism 210 years after Marx’s birth in 1818. To her surprise, the journal was flooded with thousands of submissions. She was having a hard time sifting through the piles and selecting a winner, but she found one that pulled together many of the recurring themes. The essay made the case that Marx isn’t dead but
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how Game-chanGers shape scenarIo:
Global economy
All boats substantially rise. emerging economies continue to grow faster than advanced ones, but GdP growth in advanced economies also accelerates. the global economy nearly doubles by 2030 to $132 trillion that year. Chinese per capita incomes rapidly increase, ensuring that China avoids the middle-income trap.
conflict the specter of a spreading conflict in south Asia triggers intervention by the Us and China, leading to a cease-fire and settlement. such success breeds broader cooperation on global and regional challenges, lowering risks of conflict.
regional stability
tensions remain in south Asia, the Middle east, and elsewhere, but increased multilateral cooperation on poverty and climate change lessens the risks of instability. europe rebounds. A liberal China increases possibilities for regional security in Asia.
Governance Cooperation, initially based on the Us and China coming together, quickly spreads. Greater democratization takes hold first with a more liberal regime in China. reform of the multilateral institutions is a final stage, following deepening cooperation among powers.
Technology the rapid expansion of scientific knowledge is a key factor in sustaining a more cooperative world. technological innovation is also critical to the world staying ahead of the rising resource constraints that would result from the rapid boost in prosperity posited under this scenario.
Us role in the World
the American dream returns, with per capita incomes rising
$10,000 in ten years. the United states’ technological surge and efforts to end conflicts are the basis of Us leadership. talk of Us declinism has abated in this new environment where cooperation has replaced competition among the great powers.
FUS ion
how major powers/reGIons fare In scenarIo:
europe in europe, the euro zone crisis proves to be the catalyst for deep political and economic restructuring.
russia As technology becomes the source of international legitimacy and status, russia starts rebuilding its s&t sector. russia becomes a creative hotbed for cross-cultural fertilization.
china China emerges stronger with its soft power enhanced and begins to move toward democracy. it assumes increased global and regional roles.
India india’s high-tech industries benefit greatly from the new cooperative environment. While sino-indian ties improve, india still struggles to overcome historic tensions with Pakistan. the advances in energy and water help to ensure continued economic development.
brazil/Middle-Tier Powers
Brazilian scientists are on the forefront of the new green revolution for Africa. With more cooperation among the great powers, middle-tier powers find that they play less of a global role than when Us and China competed for their support.
Poor developing states
Poor states benefit greatly from the technological advances in food and energy. some states continue to teeter on the edge of failure, but many more are doing better in the cooperative atmosphere.
FUS ion
is instead thriving and doing better in the 21st century than anybody could have imagined just 15 or 20 years ago. The following are excerpts from that essay.