Economic-Environmental Tradeoffs: Methodologies for Analysis of the Agricultural Production-Rural Environment System

NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR

ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL TRADEOFFS:

METHODOLOGIES FOR ANALYSIS OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION-RURAL ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM

Russell Gum Eric Oswald October 1980 CP-80-28

Collaborative Papers report work which has not been performed solely at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and which has received only

limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organi- zations supporting the work.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

T h i s p a p e r was o r i g i n a l l y p r e p a r e d u n d e r t h e t i t l e " M o d e l l i n g f o r Management" f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n a t a N a t e r R e s e a r c h C e n t r e

(U.K.

) Conference on " R i v e r P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l " , Oxford, 9 - 1 1 A s r i l , 1979.

PREFACE

U n d e s i r a b l e e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n a r e be- coming more numerous a s a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n i s i n c r e a s e d t o meet world food demands. The q u e s t i o n o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n t r o l s o n a g r i c u l t u r e h a s many i m p l i c a t i o n s o n b o t h t h e l e v e l o f o u t p u t from a g r i c u l t u r e and upon t h e q u a l i t y of t h e environment. The p u r p o s e s o f t h i s p a p e r a r e t o 1) d e f i n e a g e n e r a l s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n - r u r a l environment system, 2) d e f i n e a g e n e r a l a n a l y t i c a l framework f o r management o f t h e system, and 3) d e s c r i b e a n e m p i r i c a l management s t u d y o f w a t e r q u a l i t y and e r o s i o n c o n t r o l .

I s h o u l d l i k e t o add t o t h e a u t h o r s ' p r e f a c e a few words o f my own. The f o l l o w i n g p a p e r r e p r e s e n t s t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s of a group of e x p e r t s from t h e United S t a t e s Department of A g r i c u l t u r e t o t h e c o l l a b o r a t i v e s t u d y w i t h IIASA's t a s k , "Environmental Problems of A g r i c u l t u r e . " The s t u d y , c u l m i n a t i n g i n t h i s p a p e r , met one of t h e T a s k ' s r e s e a r c h o b j e c t i v e s , which a s s t a t e d i n t h e Re- s e a r c h P l a n i s , " a n e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e t r a d e - o f f s between t h e i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n and t h e p o s s i b l e d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . " The a u t h o r s f u r t h e r p r e s e n t , i n condensed form, a n example demon- s t r a t i n g how a h i g h l y complex e n v i r o n m e n t a l problem c a n b e a n a l y z e d . The methodology used f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s i s n o t r e s t r i c t e d t o t h e s t u d y o f a g r i c u l -

t u r a l - e n v i r o n m e n t a l i n t e r a c t i o n s ; r a t h e r , i t can b e a p p l i e d on a w i d e r b a s i s .

Gennady N . Golubev Task Leader

Environmental Problems o f A g r i c u l t u r e

ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL TRADEOFFS: METHODOLOGIES FOR ANALYSIS OF THE AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION-RURAL ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM

Adverse e n v i r o n m e r ~ t a l i m p a c t s r e l a t e d t o a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n i n c l u d e : groundwater p o l l u t i o n , f i s h k i l l s due t o p e s t i c i d e a p p l i c a t i o n s , d e s t r u c t i o n of a q u a t i c h a b i t a t from s e d i m e n t a t i o n , n e a r e x t i n c t i o n of some mammalian s p e c i e s due t o l a n d u s e changes, d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n due t o o v e r - g r a z i n g and many o t h e r s . I n f a c t , a g r i c u l t u r e always l e a d s t o changes i n t h e " n a t u r a l 1 ' e n v i r o n m e n t , i f f o r no o t h e r r e a s o n , from t h e change i n l a n d

I I

from a " n a t u r a l " c o n d i t i o n t o a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n . Although t h e pro- blem h a s e x i s t e d s i n c e t h e b e g i n n i n g of a g r i c u l t u r e more c o n c e r n i s now b e i n g g i v e n t h e problem due t o t h e g r e a t p o t e n t i a l of c u r r e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l technology f o r s e r i o u s e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s and due t o t h e i n c r e a s e d e n v i - ronmental awareness worldwide.

I n o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d and manage t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n - r u r a l environment s y s t e m i t i s f i r s t n e c e s s a r y t o u n d e r s t a n d b o t h how t h e components of t h e s y s t e m i n t e r a c t and how t h e o u t p u t s of t h e s y s t e m a r e r e l a t e d t o

human v a l u e s .

A v e r y s i m p l e s t r u c t u r e of t h e r u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t - a g r i c u l t u r a l

p r o d u c t i o n system i s d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 1. Two a s p e c t s of t h i s s y s t e m a r e of c r i t i c a l i m p o r t a n c e . The f i r s t i s t h e f e e d b a c k l i n k from a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n t o t h e r e s o u r c e b a s e system and t o t h e ecosystem. A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n t h u s i m p a c t s t h e s e o t h e r s y s t e m s which i n t u r n i n f l u e n c e t h e f u t u r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n . The s e c o n d i s t h e l i n k a g e between

b o t h a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n , t h e ecosystem and t h e human v a l u e s s y s t e m . J u s t as food meets human needs and w a n t s , s o d o e s e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . I t i s obvious from s u c h a system t h a t t r a d e o f f s e x i s t between e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y and a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , due t o t h e dynamic n a t u r e of t h e f e e d b a c k l o o p s , t r a d e o f f s e x i s t b o t h a t t h e p r e s e n t and between t h e p r e s e n t and f u t u r e . S i n c e one of t h e o u t p u t s of t h e s y s t e m i s achievement of human g o a l s , i t i s o n l y r e a s o n a b l e t o a t t e m p t t o manage t h e s y s t e m t o o b t a i n more r a t h e r t h a n l e s s achievement of human g o a l s .

Many s t r a t e g i e s and i n s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s e x i s t f o r managing such a system. However, a l l t h e d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n s and s t r a t e g i e s

perform t h e same b a s i c f u n c t i o n s and p r o c e s s t h e same g e n e r a l t y p e s of i n f o r - mation a s d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 2 .

The key t o t h e management system i s t h a t t h e c o n t r o l system i s f e d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e achievement of human g o a l s , l a b e l e d v a l u e i n d i c a t o r s , and makes d e c i s i o n s which i m p a c t t h e p h y s i c a l - b i o l o g i c a l - s o c i a l systems-- l a b e l e d r e a l s y s t e m s . The r e a l system i s observed and measures of i t s s t a t e made--these measures a r e l a b e l e d t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s . The t e c h n i c a l i n d i - c a t o r s a r e t h e n t r a n s l a t e d by human p e r c e p t i o n a n d v a l u e s i n t o t h e v a l u e i n d i c a t o r s .

I f t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n from t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s t o v a l u e i n d i c a t o r s i s n o t made o r n o t made p r o p e r l y , s e r i o u s a b e r r a t i o n s a r e i n t r o d u c e d i n t o t h e management s y s tem.

I n t h e s i m p l e s t c a s e of t h i s t y p e of a b e r r a t i o n , a s i n g l e p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i s i d e n t i f i e d and measured. No a n a l y s i s of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between human v a l u e s and t h e p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i s made. E i t h e r t h e assumption i s made t h a t t h e p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c h a s v a l u e s i n and of

Resource Base

\

Achievement of Human Values

Figure 1. General System.

i

^{R e a l} T e c h n i c a l

Sys terns I n d i c a t o r s I n d i c a t o r s

C o n t r o l Sys t e m

F i g u r e 2 . Man:,gernc~lt System.

i t s e l f o r t h e assumption i s made t h a t however t h e p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i s measured, t h i s measurement is a p p r o p r i a t e a s a v a l u e i n d i c a t o r . T h i s can l e a d t o s e r i o u s problems. For example, l a n d s u b s i d e n c e i n a r i d r e g i o n s due t o groundwater w i t h d r a w a l s i s o f t e n mentioned a s a c r i t i c a l problem o f t h e s e a r e a s . S t a t e m e n t s s u c h a s " t h e l a n d h a s s u b s i d e d 1 0 m e t e r s t t a r e made as i f 10 m e t e r s were a n i n d i c a t o r of human v a l u e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e i s a l m o s t no r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e d i s t a n c e t h e l a n d s u r f a c e s i n k s and human v a l u e s . I n one b a s i n i n A r i z o n a , t h e l a n d h a s sunk a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 0 m e t e r s a t t h e c e n t e r of a b a s i n which i s a b o u t 50 km i n d i a m e t e r (McCauley and Gum, 1 9 7 5 ) . The i m p a c t s on humans c o n s i s t of c o s t s of maintenance of w e l l s and a few thousand d o l l a r s a y e a r t o r e p a i r highway c r a c k s . Yet l a n d s u b s i d e n c e i s o f t e n mentioned as a major r e a s o n f o r b u i l d i n g t h e C e n t r a l A r i z o n a P r o j e c t t o import water a t a c o s t of s e v e r a l b i l l i o n d o l l a r s ( G r i f f i n , 1 9 8 0 ) .

Another example of t h e same a b e r r a t i o n i s t h e u s e o f g r o s s e r o s i o n a s t h e a p p r o p r i a t e measure of t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact of e r o s i o n . I n f a c t g r o s s e r o s i o n i s a v e r y poor measure of t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l impact of e r o s i o n and r e d u c i n g g r o s s e r o s i o n may have l i t t l e e f f e c t on w a t e r q u a l i t y o r i e n t e d problems. F a c t o r s such a s h a b i t a t t y p e s , p a r t i c l e s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n of s e d i - ment, t i m i n g of e r o s i o n e v e n t s , a l l must b e c o n s i d e r e d i n p h y s i c a l l y o r

b i o l o g i c a l l y d e s c r i b i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s of e r o s i o n . I n a d d i t i o n t h e human v a l u e s s u c h a s m a i n t a i n i n g l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y , a e s t h e t i c s of s t r e a m s , r i v e r s , and l a k e s , and w i l d l i f e h a b i t a t v a l u e s need t o b e e x p l i c i t l y con- s i d e r e d i n managing e r o s i o n . I f s u c h a n approach i s n o t u s e d i t i s l i k e l y t h a t r e s o u r c e s w i l l b e s p e n t t o s o l v e non-problems w h i l e t h e r e a l problems w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t i m p a c t s on human v a l u e s a r e i g n o r e d .

Many o t h e r c a s e s e x i s t where p h y s i c a l f a c t s a r e u s e d i n a p p r o p r i a t e l y .

I11 f a c t , s c i e n t i s t s a r e h i g h l y r e l u c t a n t t o u s e a n y t h i n g b u t "hard" p h y s i c a l f a c t s f o r any purpose. That i s f i n e f o r "science", b u t i t i s c o m p l e t e l y i n a p - p r o p r i a t e t o u s e p h y s i c a l measures a s v a l u e i n d i c a t o r s , and t h i s b e i n g t h e c a s e , methodologies a r e needed t o i n c o r p o r a t e d i r e c t l y t h e v a l u e and percep- t u a l p r o c e s s i n t o t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . The f o l l o w i n g i s s u c h a p r o c e d u r e ( F i g u r e 3)

.

S t e p one, of c o u r s e , i s simply t o d e f i n e t h e g e n e r a l problem and s e t l i m i t s on t h e problems t o be s t u d i e d . An example would be t h e w a t e r q u a l i t y and e r o s i o n problem i n t h e Willow Creek watershed i n Oregon (USDA, 1977).

From t h i s g e n e r a l s t a t e m e n t , t h e n e x t s t e p (2) i s t o d e f i n e t h e a s p e c t s of human v a l u e (human g o a l s ) a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i d e n t i f i e d problem. Obviously,

one s e t of v a l u e s p e r t i n e n t t o s u c h a s i t u a t i o n i s i n d i c a t e d by t h e p r o d u c t s bought and s o l d i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e . These v a l u e s c a n be d e f i n e d i n t r a d i -

t i o n a l economic t e r m s , u s i n g market o b s e r v a t i o n s of p r i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s . Other v a l u e s e x i s t and cannot b e n e g l e c t e d . I n f a c t , t h e whole a r e a of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i s n o t n o r m a l l y bought and s o l d i n t h e market- p l a c e and must be c o n s i d e r e d i n o t h e r t h a n economic measurements based upon market o b s e r v a t i o n .

Two approaches a r e i n g e n e r a l u s e . One p o s s i b i l i t y is t o c r e a t e a h y p o t h e t i c a l market f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y and measure v a l u e s i n monetary u n i t s . The second i s t o d e f i n e and d e v e l o p a v a l u e i n d e x f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i n nonmonetary u n i t s (Gum, 1980). Both a p p r o a c h e s a r e s t i l l i n t h e e v o l u t i o n a r y s t a g e and t h e r e i s no c l e a r concensus a t p r e s e n t a s t o which i s b e s t . For a p p l i c a t i o n s where c o s t b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s i s t o be used

as

t h e p l a n n i n g and e v a l u a t i o n framework, t h e c o n v e r s i o n of a l l v a l u e s i n t o monetary

measures i s a p p r o p r i a t e and n e c e s s a r y . For a p p l i c a t i o n s where m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g p r o c e d u r e s a r e t o b e used a s t h e p l a n n i n g and e v a l u a t i o n framework, development of non-monetary i n d i c e s i s a p p r o p r i a t e and n e c e s s a r y . I t i s t h e m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e p l a n n i n g approach (USWRC, 1 9 7 3 ) , which was chosen a s t h e framework f o r t h i s p a p e r . S p e c i f i c a l l y two o b j e c t i v e s a r e proposed (1) Economic Development, and ( 2 ) Environmental Q u a l i t y . T r a d i t i o n a l economic measures a r e proposed f o r t h e Economic Development a c c o u n t w h i l e a n e n v i r o n - m e n t a l q u a l i t y i n d e x i s proposed f o r t h e Environmental a c c o u n t .

The e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i n d e x i s of t h e form of a m u l t i a t t r i b u t e u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n which s e r v e s t h e f u n c t i o n of a g g r e g a t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e many a s p e c t s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i n t o a s i n g l e i n d e x .

One approach t o d e f i n e s u c h a f u n c t i o n i s t o c o n s t r u c t a h i e r a r c h i c a l g o a l t r e e w i t h t h e g e n e r a l g o a l of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y a t t h e t o p and more s p e c i f i c s u b g o a l s a s b r a n c h e s a n d s u b b r a n c h e s o f t h e tree. F i g u r e 4 i s an example of s u c h a g o a l t r e e d e s i g n e d f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n of a w a t e r q u a l i t y and e r o s i o n c o n t r o l p r o j e c t (Willow Creek, Oregon). F u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n of t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of g o a l t r e e s can b e found i n Gum, Roefs, K i m b a l l , 1976.

Once t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e g o a l t r e e i s e s t a b l i s h e d , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o s e l e c t a f u n c t i o n t o a g g r e g a t e t h e v a l u e s from t h e most s p e c i f i c b r a n c h e s t o t h e g e n e r a l g o a l and t o e s t i m a t e t h e p a r a m e t e r s of t h i s f u n c t i o n . While many f u n c t i o n a l forms c o u l d b e u s e d , t h e form c o r r e s p o n d i n g " b e s t " t o e x p e r i - m e n t a l r e s u l t s on t h e human p e r c e p t i o n and v a l u e p r o c e s s i s a power f u n c t i o n homogeneous of d e g r e e 1. The p a r a m e t e r s of such a f u n c t i o n a r e s i m p l y t h e exponents of t h e e l e m e n t s and c a n be r e f e r r e d t o a s p r e f e r e n c e w e i g h t s . For example, t h e m u l t i a t t r i b u t e u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e g o a l t r e e i n F i g u r e 4 i s :

PROCESS

1. DEFINE PROBLEM.

2.

DEFINE GOALS.

3. DEFINE TECHNICAL INDICATORS.

4. MODEL TECH,NICAL TO GOAL CONNECTION.

5. DEFINE ALTERNATIVES.

6. MODEL ALTERNATIVE TO TECHNICAL INDICATOR RELATIONSHIP.

7. DEVELOP MANAGEMENT MODEL TO DISCOVER A REASONABLE SET OF ALTERNATIVES.

8. PRESENT RESULTS TO DECISION MAKERS.

9 .

REPEAT ABOVE AS USEFUL OR NECESSARY.

Figure

3. Planning

Process.

where X . i s t h e measure on a 0 t o 100 s c a l e of t h e l e v e l of a t t a i n m e n t of

1

g o a l i and wi i s t h e p r e f e r e n c e weight f o r g o a l i.

The p r e f e r e n c e weights can be generated by s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t approaches. One r e a s o n a b l e approach i s t o u s e an o p i n i o n survey of t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c t o develop t h e s e weights. A second approach i s t o u s e t h e o p i n i o n s of t h e p o l i c y makers t o determine w e i g h t s . D i s c u s s i o n of t h e metho- d o l o g i e s f o r o b t a i n i n g t h e weights can be found i n Gum, Roefs, and Kimball, 1976.

The next s t e p ( 3 ) i n t h e process i s t o d e f i n e t h e t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s t o be measured. Data a v a i l a b i l i t y , model a v a i l a b i l i t y , t h e s p e c i f i c charac- t e r i s t i c s of t h e problem, and r e s e a r c h r e s o u r c e c o n s t r a i n t s w i l l i n p a r t determine t h e c h o i c e of t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s .

For t h e example of e r o s i o n and water q u a l i t y improvement a v e r y l a r g e number of p o s s i b l e t e c h n i c a l parameters e x i s t . For example t h e U.S.

Environmental P r o t e c t i o n Agency h a s a d a t a system which r e p o r t s on over 2000 d i f f e r e n t p h y s i c a l and b i o l o g i c a l w a t e r q u a l i t y parameters. The b a s i c

c r i t e r i a f o r s e l e c t i n g among t h e l a r g e number of p o s s i b l e c r i t e r i a a r e

1 ) i s v a r i a t i o n i n t h e lowest l e v e l subgoals such a s d e b r i s , odor ( s e e f i g u r e 4) r e l a t e d t o t h e t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r , and 2) s o models e x i s t t o r e l a t e t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s t o t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t o be s t u d i e d .

A p e r f e c t study would s e l e c t t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s and models which would a c c u r a t e l y and completely r e l a t e a l l p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s t o t h e human g o a l s . P e r f e c t s t u d i e s do n o t , nor w i l l they e v e r , e x i s t . T r a d e o f f s

e x i s t between a c c u r a c y , c o m p l e t e n e s s , a n a l y s i s t i m e , and a n a l y s i s c o s t

.

I n f a c t t h e s e l e c t i o n of t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s , modeling a p p r o a c h and a n a l y - t i c a l t e c h n i q u e i s a d e c i s i o n i n v o l v i n g m u l t i p l e o b j e c t i v e s . For t h e

Willow Creek a p p l i c a t i o n t h e f o l l o w i n g t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s were s e l e c t e d .

Lowest Level Subgoal Land P r o d u c t i v i t y Land S c e n i c Beauty

Water P r o d u c t i v i t y

Water S c e n i c Beauty Q u a n t i t y

Water Appearance D e b r i s

Odor C l a r i t y

Algae Sediment A i r Q u a l i t y

C u l t u r a l Resource Q u a l i t y

H e a l t h

B i o t a Q u a l i t y

T e c h n i c a l I n d i c a t o r

Y e a r s of t o p s o i l r e m a i n i n g Composite i n d e x of l a n d use- b e a u t y v a l u e

Water y i e l d i n a c r e f e e t p e r y e a r

Flow i n c f s

P e r c e n t o f w a t e r s u r f a c e a f f e c t e d by d e b r i s

Summer w a t e r flow i n c f s

P e r c e n t w a t e r a f f e c t e d by a l g a e Suspended sediment i n mg/l.

Number of Days p a r t i c u l a t e q u a l i t y s t a n d a r d s a r e exceeded

A c t u a l a c c o u n t i n g o f r e s o u r c e s and e f f e c t s

Contaminated d r i n k i n g w a t e r s o u r c e s

Index of r i p a r i a n h a b i t a t q u a l i t y (Oswald

,

¹⁹⁸⁰⁾

R e c r e a t i o n Q u a l i t y F i s h i n g Q u a l i t y Swimming Q u a l i t y B o a t i n g Q u a l i t y

Hunting Q u a l i t y

I

Water S c e n i c Beauty I n d e x

( c o m p o s i t e i n d e x of q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y c o n s i d e r a t i o n )

T e r r e s t r i a l component (sub

i n d e x ) of r i p a r i a n h a b i t a t i n d e x These t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s were judged t o measure a l m o s t a l l of t h e changes i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y g o a l s ( F i g u r e 4 ) . A d d i t i o n a l l y a s e t o f models t o r e l a t e t h e s e t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s t o t h e p l a n s were s e l e c t e d and w i l l be d i s c u s s e d l a t t e r . These t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s p r o v i d e b a s i c i n f o r m a t i o n t o a l l o w t h e e s t i m a t i o n of i m p a c t s and p l a n on t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y g o a l s i s a v a i l a b l e .

A f t e r t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s have been c h o s e n , :they must b e r e l a t e d t o t h e v a l u e components of t h e g o a l t r e e ( s t e p 4 ) . For example, i f r n g / l o f sediment i s chosen a s t h e t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r f o r t h e measure of t h e s o i l component of w a t e r c l a r i t y , t h e n a t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of t h e p h y s i c a l u n i t s i n t o v a l u e u n i t s must b e found.

I f we d e f i n e t h e v a l u e s c a l e a s a 0 t o 1 0 s c a l e where 0 i s t h e w o r s t p o s s i b l e c a s e and 1 0 i s t h e b e s t c a s e , t h e problem becomes one of mapping ppm sediment o n t o t h e v a l u e s c a l e . I n q u a n t i f y i n g t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p ,

two major problems a r e e n c o u n t e r e d . F i r s t , v a l u e i s s u b j e c t i v e l y p e r c e i v e d , n o t measured i n t h e same way t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s a r e measured by a d i r e c t l y o b s e r v a b l e p h y s i c a l " y a r d s t i c k . " S e c o n d l y , a l t h o u g h t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c p e r - c e i v e s achievement of s o c i a l g o a l s ( e n v i r o n m e n t a l g o a l s ) , t h e t e c l ~ n i c a l pheno- mena t h a t u n d e r l i e t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n s a r e u s u a l l y u n d e r s t o o d o n l y by s p e c i a l i s t s The f i r s t problem c a n b e r e c o n c i l e d by u s i n g s u r r o g a t e m e a s u r e s , i n d i c e s , f o r v a l u e o r g o a l achievement. The second problem can b e s o l v e d by c o l l e c t i n g

i n f o r m a t i o n on c o n n e c t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s from g r o u p s of p e o p l e t h a t have b o t h p e r c e p t i o n s of g o a l achievement (and knowledge of t h e p e r c e p t i o n s of o t h e r s ) and knowledge of t e c h n i c a l measures. These groups s h o u l d c o n s i s t of e x p e r t s i n t h e r e l e v a n t a s p e c t s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l management. A m u l t i d i s c i p l i n a r y group i s u s u a l l y n e c e s s a r y due t o t h e wide r a n g e o f t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s impinging on e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y .

The d e c i s i o n s made by t h i s group f a l l i n t o two c a t e g o r i e s . They should :

1. Attempt t o a c h i e v e consensus on t h e c u r r e n t v a l u e of a lower l e v e l s u b g o a l , b o t h i n terms of t h e t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s and t h e s u r r o g a t e i n d e x .

2 . E s t a b l i s h t h e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r and v a l u e s c a l e .

The Delphi method may b e used a s t h e mechanics of t h e group t o d e v e l o p t h e i n f o r m a t i o n n e c e s s a r y t o d e f i n e t h e s e c o n n e c t i v e s (Dalkey, 1 9 6 9 ) . D e l p h i i s a v e h i c l e t o s o l i c i t and c o l l a t e informed judgements a b o u t t h e p r e s e n t and f u t u r e . The D e l p h i method p r o v i d e s r u l e s f o r u s i n g e x p e r t judgements t o f i n d b e t t e r answers t o u n c e r t a i n q u e s t i o n s . I f a s i m p l e p e r c e p t u a l e x p e r i - ment i s done o r D e l p h i p r o c e d u r e followed t h e r e s u l t might be s i m i l a r t o F i g u r e 5. A t a c o n c e n t r a t i o n of 0 ppm, p e o p l e w i l l p e r c e i v e t h e w a t e r t o b e p e r f e c t on t h e c l a r i t y i n d e x . A s t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of s e d i m e n t i n c r e a s e s t h e r e w i l l b e d e c r e a s e s i n t h e v a l u e i n d e x u n t i l a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2 2 0 0 ppm o f sediment i s r e a c h e d , a f t e r which p o i n t p e o p l e a r e u n a b l e t o p e r c e i v e any f u r - t h e r d e g r a d a t i o n i n w a t e r c l a r i t y .

I f o u r management s y s t e m i s a d a i l y o r i n s t a n t a n e o u s s y s t e m , t h e above measure i s a p p r o p r i a t e ; i f , however, a management s y s t e m i s a n a n n u a l system, t h e n t h e problem o f a g g r e g a t i n g o v e r time a r i s e s . C o n s i d e r F i g u r e 6 .

THE GOAL I S WATER CLARITY.

THE TECHNICAL MEASURE I S THE SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION.

CURRENT TECHNICAL LEVEL CURRENT GOAL LEVEL

TECHNICAL

T O

GOAL FUNCTION

WATER C L A R I T Y

INDEX

I000 2088

SEDIMENT

me/ I

F i g u r e 5. P h y s i c a l t o V a l u e L i n k f o r S e d i m e n t t o Water C l a r i t y .

Water ( s o i l )

I

I Median Sediment ^I Average Sediment

I C o n c e n t r a t i o n

I

C o n c e n t r a t i o n I

I C l a r i t y

i n d e x

I

I I

SEDIMENT mg

11

F i g u r e 6 . Example of t i m i n g problems i n Goal Measurement.

Due

t o s e v e r e s t o r m e v e n t s c a u s i n g e x t r e m e l y h i g h l e v e l s of sediment t o b e c a r r i e d o f f , t h e v a l u e of t h e g o a l , i f t h e a v e r a g e sediment v a l u e i s u s e d , w i l l b e z e r o . However, t h e v a l u e of t h e g o a l , i f t h e median sediment con- c e n t r a t i o n i s u s e d , w i l l b e much h i g h e r and i s a more l o g i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of p e o p l e ' s a v e r a g e v a l u e of t h e w a t e r c l a r i t y g o a l o v e r t h e p e r i o d of a y e a r . The b e s t method would be t o c a l c u l a t e t h e v a l u e of t h e g o a l f o r e a c h day of t h e y e a r and a v e r a g e t h e s e v a l u e s f o r a y e a r l y measure of t h e g o a l .

The n e x t s t e p (5) i n t h e p r o c e s s i s t o d e f i n e t h e p o s s i b l e

a l t e r n a t i v e s t o b e i n v e s t i g a t e d . These might r a n g e from c o n s t r u c t i o n a l t e r - n a t i v e s t o economic i n c e n t i v e s f o r implementing c e r t a i n management p r a c t i c e s t o l e g a l r e g u l a t i o n s and o t h e r s . I n t h e e v a l u a t i o n b e i n g conducted f o r t h e Willow Creek sub-basin i n Oregon, a l t e r n a t i v e s w i l l combine t h e s t r u c t u r a l p r a c t i c e s of t e r r a c i n g , d i v e r s i o n s , sediment ponds and g r a d e s t a b i l i z a t i o n w i t h v e g e t a t i v e and management p r a c t i c e s such a s g r a s s e d waterways, reduced t i l l a g e , r e s i d u e management and mulching, c o n t o u r and s t r i p c r o p p i n g t o a c h i e v e p r o j e c t g o a l s of e r o s i o n and s.ediment r e d u c t i o n .

Once a s e t of a l t e r n a t i v e s i s d e f i n e d i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o r e l a t e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s t o t h e t e c h n i c a l measures ( s t e p 6 ) . A t t h i s p o i n t , corresponding ma t h e m a t i c a l models must b e used. I f , f o r example, t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s i n c l u d e

a l t e r n a t i v e l a n d management t e c h n i q u e s , t h e n t h e i r impact on e r o s i o n , and sediment i n waterways must be modeled. J u s t a s i n t h e s e l e c t i o n s of t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s , t h e s e l e c t i o n of models w i l l depend upon t h e s p e c i f i c s of t h e

problem and t h e r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e r e s e a r c h . The b a s i c model s e l e c t e d was t h e Chemical Runoff and E r o s i o n from A g r i c u l t u r a l Management Systems

(CREAMS)

( K n i s e l , 1980). The model w i l l a l l o w t h e e s t i v a t i o n of t h e t i m i n g

and c h a r a c t e r , a s w e l l a s amounts of chemical and sediment produced by a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n systems.

A d d i t i o n a l models necessary i n c l u d e a h a b i t a t model t o e s t i m a t e t h e impact of a l t e r n a t i v e s . The b a s i c form of t h e model i s based on t h e

H a b i t a t E v a l u a t i o n Procedures (HEP) of t h e U.S. F i s h and W i l d l i f e S e r v i c e ( r e v i s e d 1978). A f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n of t h e R i p a r i a n H a b i t a t model can be found i n Oswald 1980.

F u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n of t h e Land Q u a l i t y submodel c a n b e found i n t h e Impacts of Resource Management on Land Q u a l i t y : A S t r u c t u r e f o r A n a l y s i s , a working paper i n d r a f t form a t t h i s time a u t h o r e d by E r i c B. Oswald. Water r e s o u r c e q u a l i t y and r e s o u r c e management p r a c t i c e s i s d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n Oswald, 1978.

Once t h e t e c h n i c a l impacts of t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s have been modeled, they can be expressed i n t h e g o a l v a l u e s by u s e of t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s

developed i n s t e p 4 of t h e process. A t t h i s p o i n t , t h e n e c e s s a r y i n f o r m a t i o n f o r a mathematical programming model t o s e l e c t a r e a s o n a b l e s e t of a l t e r n a - t i v e s t o p r e s e n t t o t h e d e c i s i o n maker has been developed ( s t e p 7 ) . The.

g e n e r a l form of t h e programming model i s t o maximize t h e environmental q u a l i t y g o a l s u b j e c t t o p h y s i c a l and economic r e s t r a i n t s . S e p a r a b l e p r o g r a m i n g can be used t o a l l o w a l i n e a r programming a l g o r i t h m t o s o l v e t h e maximization of

t h e n o n l i n e a r o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n . This approach i s d e f i n e d i n S t e l l e r n , Gum, A r t h u r , Oswald, 1979. By v a r y i n g t h e l e v e l on t h e economic c o n s t r a i n t , a

t r a d e o f f f r o n t i e r between environmental q u a l i t y and economics can be developed (Figure 7 ) .

The r e s u l t s of t h i s p r o c e s s c a n then be p r e s e n t e d t o d e c i s i o n makers f o r a f i n a l d e c i s i o n o r f o r s u g g e s t i o n s on r e v i s i o n and improvement.

Environmental Index

Economic'Index

Figure

7.

Trade-off Frontier

Summary

The above p r o c e s s i s r e a s o n a b l e b o t h i n t h e o r y and i n p r a c t i c e f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n of r u r a l environment v s . a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n problems.

While i t , i n g e n e r a l , seems v e r y c o m p l i c a t e d , i t becomes much s i m p l e r f o r most a p p l i e d problems. For example, i n most a p p l i e d problems a l t e r n a t i v e s may n o t impact a s p e c i f i c s u b g o a l , f o r example, a i r q u a l i t y . I n t h i s

c a s e , l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n n e e d s t o b e p a i d t o models o f a i r q u a l i t y o f d a t a on a i r q u a l i t y and s o on.

I n a d d i t i o n t o p r o v i d i n g recommendations t o d e c i s i o n makers, t h e p r o c e s s h a s t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f f o r c i n g t h e a n a l y s t t o t h i n k of t h e human dimensions o f a problem, n o t j u s t t h e t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s of a supposed problem.

I t may b e t h a t t h i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h e methodology i s of t h e most v a l u e .

REFERENCES

Dalkey, N., "An Experimental Study of Group Opinion: The Delphi Method,"

Futures 1:408-425, 1969.

Gum, Russell L., Louise M. Arthur, Eric B. Oswald and William E. Martin, Goal Oriented Evaluation system: Procedures for Multiple Objective

- Planning, Draft-Technical Bulletin, USDA, ESCS, Tucson, Arizona, 1980.

Gum, Russell L., Theodore Roefs and A. Kimball, "Quantifying Societal Goals: Development of a Weighting Methodology," Water Resource Research Vol. 12, No. 4, 1976.

Griffin, Adrian H., "An Economic and Institutional Assessment of the Water Problem Facing the Tucson Basin," a dissertation submitted to the

faculty of the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, 1980.

Knisel, Walter G., Jr., ed., CREAMS, A Field Scale Model for Chemicals --- --

Runoff and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems, USDA, SEA, Conservation Research Report No. 26, Washington, D.C., May 1980.

McCauley, C. A. and R. Gum, "Land Subsidence: An Economic Analysis,"

Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 148-154, February 1975.

Oswald, Eric B.,

--

Biota Quality: A Riparian Habitat Model, Working Paper, Water Branch, NRED, ESCS ,-us~~, Washington, D. C. , ^1980.

Oswald, Eric B., The Surface Water Quality Impacts of Resource Management Plans: A Structure - f x a l y s i s , Working paper No. 48, USDA, NRED, washingt';;n, D.C., 1978.

Stellern, Michael J., Eric B. Oswald, Russell L. Gum and Louise M. Arthur, Environmental Quality Possibilities (E.Q.P.): A Procedure - ^for

Evaluating ~conomic/~nvironmental Tradeof f s , ^NR% , ESCS, USDA, Washington, D.C., March 1979.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Nonpoint Pollution Study, Supplemental

Plan of Work to the Oregon Rivers Cooperative River Basin Study,

USDA, SCS, Portland, Oregon, September 1977.

U.S. Water R e s o u r c e s C o u n c i l , "Water and R e l a t e d Land R e s o u r c e s : E s t a b l i s h m e n t of P r i n c i p l e s and S t a n d a r d s of P l a n n i n g , " F e d e r a l R e g i s t e r 3 8 (174):

P a r t 111, Washington, D . C . , 1973.