The WELMM Approach to Energy Strategies and Options

THE WELMM

APPROACH TO

ENERGY STRAT

AND OPTIONS 'EGIES

MlCIlEL GRENON BRUNO L A P I W N N E OEC€MEER 1 9 7 6

hsmrch Repam pmndc the f o r d recnrd of d a n d 4 by the

k e m u h d hsinm for Applied S y a n n r hadpis. 'Ihey are ca&dy before p u b h a o n md r q r c s a c . in the Inrrinue's be= j-cnc.

axnpzmt lcirmrific work. vim or opruonr ha&. howmet.

do nor d yn htharc of t h e N a t i o d M t m k q p n - iIqchcInrdnueoroftheInrruureiuelf.

Inearnational Inrtituta tor Applied S y m t a m r A n a i y m i m

2361 Laxanburg, Aumeria

PREFACE

Methods for comparing dternative energy strategies are insufficiently developed:

optimization models. cost/benefit analysis. impact matrix preference functions. Tlus paper presents the general framework of an impact matrix. WELJIM (for Water. b e r g y . Land.

Materials. and yanpower), that h being developed in the Energy Rogram. primarily to

-

enlarge the scope of comparison of energy options. It specifies the approach that has finally been chosen to c v r y out the energy resource studies and therefore updates the various documents previously written on the WELMM approach [ l , 2.3,1].

SUMMARY

The development of energy resources requires more and more natural or human resources: on the one hand because of the difficulty of "harvesting" primary energy resources. and on the other because of the complexity of the sequence of processes necessary to convert these primary resources into useful resources for a n economy (fmal energy).

In this context the WELMM approach haa been designed to evaluate the rwource require- ments for the development of energy resources. WELMM focuses mainly on five limited resources: Eater. Energy, Land. Naterials. and & m p o m r . The WELMM evaluation is imple- mented a t the level of the major facilities concerned in the hamutang and conversion of primary energy resourcol into find resources. All the WELMM data are stored in three different data bases (Resource Data Base, Component Data Base, and Facility Data Bw).

They are meant to be used to enlarge and complete the traditional economic comparison of energy proceules. energy strategies or energy options.

The rELXM Approach t o Energy S t r a t e g i e s and O p t i o n s

THE SYSTEMS ASPECT OF NATURAL RESOURCES

The speed and p a t t e r n of t h e development o f i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s have been w i d e l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e abundance and low c o s t o f t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ( w a t e r , e n e r g y , m i n e r a l s , l a n d , e t c . ) on which a l l of t h i s development i s based. The c u r r e n t l i f e - s t y l e s and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h o i c e s p r e v a i l i n g i n such coun- t r i e s undoubtedly r e f l e c t t h i s f a c t . One of t h e major i s s u e s t h a t mankind must f a c e i n t h e long-term f u t u r e i s t h e p r o g r e s - s i v e d e p l e t i o n o f non-renewable r e s o u r c e s - - o r a t l e a s t t h e more e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e and r e a s o n a b l y cheap ones--and a growing s c a r - c i t y o f l a n d and w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . T h i s i s s u e i s a c c e n t u a t e d i f one b e l i e v e s t h a t most o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w i l l choose t h e same p a t t e r n o f development a s t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . T h i s p o i n t h a s a l r e a d y been s t r o n g l y emphasized by t h e Club o f Rome and i n v a r i o u s s t u d i e s ; p e o p l e now g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e i t s importance and t h e n e c e s s i t y of b o t h s a v i n g r e s o u r c e s and seek- i n g t e c h n o l o g i c a l a l t e r n a t i v e s based upon r e s o u r c e s t h a t a r e n o n - d e p l e t i n g , o r a t l e a s t l e s s l i m i t e d .

The energy r e s o u r c e problem c o n s t i t u t e s o n l y one p a r t of t h e o v e r a l l r e s o u r c e s i s s u e . E f f o r t s a r e now b e i n g made t o r e c o v e r and economize energy and t o i n c r e a s e t h e energy r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s by implementing new r e c o v e r y t e c h n i q u e s o r d e v e l o p - i n g new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s . A t IIASA, t h i s problem h a s been a n a l y z e d . m o r e b r o a d l y , beyond t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , by i d e n t i f y i n g s e v e r a l o p t i o n s f o r a n u n l i m i t e d s u p p l y of e n e r g y . The comparison o f o p t i o n s now under way s e e k s t o i d e n t i f y t h e s y s t e m s i m p l i c a t i o n s , o r " t h e s i d e e f f e c t s t h a t become predomi- n a n t i f t h e s e o p t i o n s a r e deployed i n a t r u l y l a r g e - s c a l e f a s h - i o n " [ 5 ] . T h i s paper aims a t p r e s e n t i n g some c o n c e p t s f o r t a c k - l i n g t h i s problem by p u t t i n g it i n t o t h e b r o a d e r c o n t e x t o f a l l n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s .

Without g o i n g i n t o t h e d e b a t e on r e s o u r c e d e p l e t i o n , it n e v e r t h e l e s s seems c e r t a i n t h a t we a r e e n t e r i n g a p e r i o d of i n c r e a s i n g c o s t s f o r energy p r o d u c t i o n , b a s i c m a t e r i a l s , cornmer- c i a 1 w a t e r and a v a i l a b l e l a n d , * a f f e c t i n g a l l p r o c e s s i n g a c t i v i - t i e s , from e x t r a c t i n g n a t u r a l o r primary r e s o u r c e s ( s e e F i g u r e 1 )

We a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y s p e a k i n g h e r e of market p r i c e s . The r e c e n t p r i c e i n c r e a s e s f o r most raw m a t e r i a l s d u e t o p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s s h o u l d n o t be c o n f u s e d w i t h t h e c o s t i n c r e a s e t o be e x p e c t e d due t o o t h e r f a c t o r s .

Natural Resources

-b Resource Processing System

k-l

f

Resources Available for the Economic System Autoconsumption Processed Resources R e c y ~ l i n g

Resource

v

Losses

: t h e p r o d u c t i o n f a c t o r s m o b i l i z e d i n a p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s , o r more g e n e r a l l y i n an economic a c t i v i t y , e . g . c a p i t a l , man- power, e n e r g y , w a t e r , .

. .

I

----,--- J

N a t u r a l ( o r Primary) Resources: t h e r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e i n t h e n a t u r a l environment: s o l a r e n e r g y , c o a l , uranium o r e , w a t e r , non-energy m i n e r a l s ( b a u x i t e , i r o n o r e ) , wood,

....

F o r m i n e r a l r e s o u r c e s , t h i s i n c l u d e s t h e economic-geologic c l a s - s i f i c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e b a s e , r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s

P r o c e s s e d ( o r F i n a l ) Resources: n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a f t e r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o r u p g r a d i n g ( e x t r a c t i o n o r c o l l e c t i o n , pro- c e s s i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n , and p o s s i b l y s t o r a g e ) t o t h e c o n d i t i o n i n which t h e y a r e consumed by t h e f i n a l u s e r , e . g . f i n a l energy commodities, t a p d r i n k i n g w a t e r , b a s i c m a t e r i a l s s u c h a s s t e e l , aluminium, g l a s s , cement

Resource P r o c e s s i n g System : a s e t o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c h a i n s d e s c r i b i n g t h e l i n k e d s e r i e s o f a c t i v i t i e s n e c e s s a r y t o make n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e t o t h e f i n a l consumer ( i n d u s t r i e s , h o u s e h o l d s , . . . ) . Figure 1. Natural resource cycle (basic definitions).

a s t h e y a r e found i n t h e n a t u r a l environment t o f i n a l o r pro- c e s s e d r e s o u r c e s a s t h e y a r e consumed i n t h e economic system.

Some o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h i s i n c r e a s e a r e :

-

The n e c e s s i t y t o e x p l o i t less e a s i l y o b t a i n a b l e r e s o u r c e s ( o f f s h o r e o i l , remote m i n e r a l o r e s i n A f r i c a o r O c e a n i a , o c e a n i c n o d u l e s , e t c . ) . So f a r we have been u t i l i z i n g mainly t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a t hand; now, b o t h e x t r a c - t i o n and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s w i l l t e n d t o i n c r e a s e , though t h i s may be p a r t l y c o u n t e r b a l a n c e d by t e c h n o l o g - i c a l p r o g r e s s ;

-

The i n c r e a s e i n p r o c e s s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s d u e , t o t h e n e c e s s i t y of u s i n g r e s o u r c e s of d e c r e a s i n g q u a l i t y

( u p g r a d i n g lower-grade m i n e r a l o r e s , w a t e r t r e a t m e n t , p o s s i b l y s e a w a t e r d e s a l i n a t i o n f o r some u s e s , and t h e l i k e ) ;

-

I n c r e a s e d e c o l o g i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s ( r e c l a m a t i o n of l a n d d i s t u r b e d by open m i n e s , c o n s t r u c t i o n of w e t , and l a t e r d r y , c o o l i n g t o w e r s f o r l a r g e power p l a n t s , e t c . ) . A l l t h e s e c o s t i n c r e a s e s w i l l g e n e r a l l y be e x p r e s s e d i n a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e consumption of economic r e s o u r c e s ( p r o c e s s e d r e s o u r c e s , manpower, l a n d , c a p i t a l ) and e v e n t u a l l y a l s o of n a t u - r a l r e s o u r c e s .

Thus, i f we c o n s i d e r t h e p r o d u c t i o n and t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f n a t u r a l i n t o p r o c e s s e d r e s o u r c e s a s t h e o b j e c t i v e o f a s y s t e m which might b e c a l l e d t h e r e s o u r c e p r o c e s s i n g system ( F i g u r e 2 1 , t h e primary r e s o u r c e e f f i c i e n c y o r n e t primary r e s o u r c e b a l a n c e of t h e system would be bound t o d e c r e a s e a s i t would consume g r e a t e r amounts o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s f o r i t s own o p e r a t i o n .

A major consequence o f t h e r e s o u r c e s c a r c i t y i s t h a t t h e problems r e l a t e d t o r e s o u r c e management c a n n o t be a n a l y z e d by c o n s i d e r i n g e a c h r e s o u r c e s e p a r a t e l y : t h i s would o b s c u r e t h e s y s t e m s a s p e c t s o f t h e problem. R a t h e r , a n a l y s i s must b e done w i t h i n a g l o b a l framework i n t e g r a t i n g a l l t h e q u a l i t a t i v e and q u a n t i t a t i v e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s o f t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . These i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s c l e a r l y l i e i n t h e t e c h n o l o g i e s used t o e x t r a c t primary r e s o u r c e s and t o c o n v e r t them i n t o u s e f u l r e s o u r c e s , each p r o c e s s d e f i n i n g a c e r t a i n combination of r e s o u r c e s and manpower.

A l l t e c h n o l o g i c a l means of d e a l i n g w i t h t h e problem of r e s o u r c e d e p l e t i o n f o r a s p e c i f i c n a t u r a l resource--and espe- c i a l l y f o r e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s - - s h o u l d c o n s i d e r t h e i r i m p a c t s on o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . T h i s may r e v e a l t h e p o s s i b l e con- s t r a i n t s o r b o t t l e n e c k s t h a t a t e c h n o l o g i c a l s t r a t e g y might c r e a t e i n t h e long-term, e i t h e r a t t h e g l o b a l l e v e l ( e . g . d e p l e - t i o n o f c e r t a i n n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s such a s p e t r o l e u m ) o r a t a l o c a l l e v e l ( e . g . w a t e r l i m i t a t i o n s i n some c o u n t r i e s of C e n t r a l

SOCI 0

-

ECONOMIC SYSTEM

NATURAL ENVIRONMENT 4 Figure 2. Tl~e reso1lrc:e proc:essir,g systerl~.

NATURAL RESOURCE T T T -

-

RESOURCE a AUTOCONSUMPTION c PROCESSING *-l SYSTEM mi 01

, a 18; g

PROCESSED FINAL BASICIJl 0 PROCESSED WATER ENERGY MATE~~I

4

RESOURCE RIALS$

I

PROCESSED RESOURCE UTlLl ZATlON

I I I I

WASTES

4

WATER PRIMARY ENERGY RAW MATE- RIALS LAND

A f r i c a and t h e Middle E a s t ; l a n d s c a r c i t y i n J a p a n , t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , o r h i g h l y i n d u s t r i a l i z e d d i s t r i c t s of a c o u n t r y such a s t h e Ruhr a r e a i n t h e F R G )

.

I n t h i s c o n t e x t , t h e WELW approach ( E a t e r , Energy, Land, M a t e r i a l s , * Manpower) h a s been d e s i g n e d a s a means of a n a l y z i n g t h e complex r e s o u r c e problem. The b a s i c o b j e c t i v e i s t o a s s e s s t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t - e g i e s , e s p e c i a l l y e n e r g y s t r a t e g i e s , w i t h i n s p e c i f i c c o u n t r i e s o r r e g i o n s o r a t t h e g l o b a l l e v e l . Because t h e n a t u r a l - r e s o u r c e c o n t e n t of t h e c a p i t a l m o b i l i z e d i n t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s must be c o n s i d e r e d , WELMM can a l s o h e l p i n a s s e s s i n g t h e i m p a c t s o f r e s o u r c e development on economic s y s t e m s ; t h i s i s why manpower r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e i n c l u d e d . One c a n t h u s d e s c r i b e t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f WELMM a s f o l l o w s :

-

E v a l u a t i o n o f w a t e r , e n e r g y , l a n d , and m a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r development s t r a t e g i e s ;

-

A n a l y s i s of t h e economic i m p a c t s of t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s ( c a p i t a l and manpower r e q u i r e m e n t s ) .

WELMM is o n l y a p a r t i a l approach t o r e s o u r c e development a s s e s s m e n t . I t d o e s n o t d e a l w i t h t h e e n t i r e s p h e r e t h a t h a s o f t e n been mentioned f o r t h e deployment of e n e r g y s t r a t e g i e s

[ 6 1 b u t f o c u s e s on t h e i m p a c t s on t h e h y d r o s p h e r e , t h e l i t h o - s p h e r e , and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t t h e e c o s p h e r e and t h e s o c i o s p h e r e . Moreover, WELMM does n o t d e a l w i t h p o l l u t i o n i m p a c t s , which have r e c e n t l y been e x t e n s i v e l y a d d r e s s e d ( s e e f o r i n s t a n c e [ 7 1 ) .

T a b l e 1 i s a ( n o n - e x h a u s t i v e ) l i s t of q u a l i t a t i v e and

q u a n t i t a t i v e r e l a t i o n s between energy and o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s i n t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f p r i m a r y f u e l s t o e l e c t r i c i t y . The WELMM approach aims a t a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e s e i n t e r a c t i o n s t h r o u g h t h e i r d e s c r i p t i o n , i n m a t r i x f o r m a t . I t can be s e e n t h a t p r a c t i c a l l y a l l s t e p s of t h e energy c h a i n s have i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h t h e o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s s e l e c t e d .

To b e g i n w i t h w a t e r , t h e f i r s t impact t h a t comes t o mind i s t h e w a t e r r e q u i r e m e n t f o r c o o l i n g power p l a n t s . I n some coun- t r i e s t h e s e r e q u i r e m e n t s have ~ l r e a d y reached p r s u r p a s s e d p h y s i c limits ( T a b l e 2 ) . Water c o o l i n g i s a l s o used i n v a r i o u s pro- c e s s e s f o r upqrading and r e p r o c e s s i n g f u e l s and f o r f i n a l w a s t e management. Water i s a l s o used a s a b a s i c m a t e r i a l i n v a r i o u s p h a s e s of p r o c e s s i n g , which l e a d s t o added w i t h d r a w a l and d e p l e - t i o n . Also of growing importance i s t h e i n t e r a c t i o n o f mining

*

We p r e f e r t h e more g e n e r a l e x p r e s s i o n " m a t e r i a l s " t o

" m i n e r a l s " s o a s t o i n c l u d e e . g . wood and lumber, and t o empha- size--when a p p r o p r i a t e - - t h e m a t e r i a l b a l a n c e o r m a t e r i a l han- d l i n g problems.

Table 1. Systems aspects of an energy chain (mineral fuels, fossil or nuclear). Transporting Fuels -Waterways -Coal slurry pipelines Upgrading Fuels -Water for cooling -Process water -Liquid wastes

Harvesting Fuels Water Energy Land Materials

Conversion to Electricity -Water for C001in9 (once- through or wet towers)

-Interaction with ground water resources -Land reclamation -Wastes and water pollution

Reprocessing and Management o f Final Waste -Watcr for cooling -Process water -Liquid wastes -Possible inter- action with run off and/or ground water At all the steps, energy is used and must be deduced from the raw energy content of the fuel being harvested and used for obtaining -Facilities (sitinq problem) -Waste storage

the final primary energy efficiency of the whole chain. -Surface mining -Deep mining (subsidence) -Infrastructure: roads related facilities -Waste storage -Roads -Rights of way: railways H.V. lines -Underground pipelines

-Facilities -In equipment and -Consumed materials -Materials handling and control -Waste

-Facilities (siting problem) -Woad, lumber for construction materials investments -Pipes, cars, tankers, etc. -Materials handling

facilities, -Haterials control and balance -Chemicals -Waste at all steps (problems of future recycling) -Consumed materials -Problem of recycling

-Consumed materials -Ctiemicals -Materials accounting (possible safeguard) -Waste

T a b l e 2. Example o f i n t e r a c t i o n between e n e r g y and w a t e r r e s o u r maximum e l e c t r i c a l c a p a c i t y t h a t c a n be c o o l e d w i t h on: ..

t h r o u g h c o o l i n g s y s t e m s . (Based on 50 m 3 / s p e r GW(el, b u t t o l i m i t t h e t e m p e r a t u r e i n c r e m e n t o f t h e r i v e r s , t w i c e t h e t r a d i t i o n a l amount o f c o o l i n g w a t e r s h o u l d b(

a v a i l a b l e , i . e . 100 m 3 / s ; 1 OOC i n c r e a s e o f w a t e r tempel a t u r e i n t h e c o o l i n g s y s t e m and 33% e f f i c i e n c y a s s u m e d , S o u r c e : 181

*

T h e s e d a t e s r e p r e s e n t t h e a p p r o x i m a t e time a t y h i c h a s h i f t o c o o l i n g t o w e r and s e a c o o l i n g i s r e q u i r e d .

a c t i v i t i e s and w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . I n some a r e a s , t h e mine i s f i r s o f a l l a t r u e m i n e . . . o f w a t e r . G a r s d o r f (FRG) i n t h e R h i n e l i g - n i t e b a s i n , where t h e a q u i f e r h a s gone t o a d e p t h o f 300 m e t e r s , i l l u s t r a t e s t h i s v e r y w e l l . * I n o t h e r a r e a s ( e . g . t h e N o r t h e r n P l a i n s S t a t e s o f t h e USA), t h e r e c l a m a t i o n o f s t r i p - m i n e d a r e a s c o m p e t e s w i t h o n - s i t e c o a l c o n v e r s i o n f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s ; a n d i n t h e c a s e o f t h e Wyoming-Arkansas c o a l s l u r r y p r o j e c t , i t i s p r o p o s e d t o t a p u n d e r g r o u n d a q u i f e r a t 1000 m d e e p .

C o u n t r y

CTK FRG USA

ignite

e x t r a c t i o n i n G a r s d o r f n e c e s s i t a t e s t h e pumping 6 3

o f a huge q u a n t i t y o f w a t e r : a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 5 0 . 10 m a n n u a l l y f o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f o n l y 15

.

10 t o n s l i g n i t e . 141 6

I

R e f e r e n c e C e i l i n g , Reached

1 9 5 0 ' s 1 9 6 0 ' s -1980 Average Runoff

( m 3 / s e c )

2 , 1 0 0 4,000 53,000

I R e f e r e n c e

ceiling [GW (el 1

2 1 40 530

Compared t o a g r i c u l t u r e , e n e r g y i s a m o d e s t l a n d u s e r . But w i t h t h e g r o w t h i n e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n , t h e s i t i n g o f l a r g e e n e r g y c o n v e r s i o n f a c i l i t i e s i s becoming a m a j o r i s s u e , a s a r e a e s t h e t i c q u e s t i o n s a n d t h e p r o b l e m o f r i g h t o f way f o r a e r i a l c o r r i d o r s

f o r h i g h v o l t a g e power l i n e s . A s f o r w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , m i n i n g a c t i v i t i e s - - e s p e c i a l l y s u r f a c e m i n i n g , o f g r o w i n g i m p o r t a n c e f o r e n e r g y m i n e r a l s a n d r e p r e s e n t i n g 9 5 % o f t h e t o t a l n o n - f u e l min- e r a l p r o d u c t i o n - - h a v e a s e v e r e i m p a c t o n t h e l a n d ( c f . F i g u r e 3 ) . C o n f l i c t s i n l a n d u s e a r e becoming more a n d more f r e q u e n t , a n d c a l l f o r a d e e p e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g . The l a n d u s e i s s u e i s i l l u s - t r a t e d i n T a b l e 3 by c o m p a r i n g l a n d r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h r e e t y p e s o f power p l a n t s . Water a n d l a n d r e s o u r c e s h a v e b e e n f r e q u e n t l y examined i n r e c e n t y e a r s , a t l e a s t o n a l o c a l o r r e g i o n a l b a s i s . The m a t e r i a l s p r o b l e m seems t o b e much l e s s w e l l u n d e r s t o o d , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n i t s s y s t e m s a s p e c t s : m a t e r i a l s u p p l i e s . m a t e r i a l r e c y c l i n g , w a s t e d i s p o s a l , m a t e r i a l b a l a n c e s , m a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g , b a s i c e q u i p m e n t ( s t e e l p i p e s f o r o i l d r i l l i n g i n t h e US o r f o r o i l o r g a s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n t h e USSR, c o a l c a r s f o r W e s t e r n c o a l i n t h e US, e t c . ) . Our p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d i e s h a v e shown t h a t d e - t a i l e d a s s e s s m e n t s o f t h e d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r m a t e r i a l s a n d t h e i r h a n d l i n g c o u l d p l a y a m a j o r r o l e i n t h e com- p a r i s o n o f v a r i o u s e n e r g y o p t i o n s , a n d e s p e c i a l l y f o r t h e s o l a r o p t i o n (see T a b l e 4 )

.

'

S E A M THICKNESS ''On3 -6U

Figure 3. Land disturbed for producing 106 t.c.e.

T a b l e 3. Land r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a 1000 MW(e) power p l a n t .

Coal

Source: [ 4 ]

S t r i p Mine F u e l

2 m Seam 10 m Seam

A t t r i b u t e

I

S p e c i f i c a t i o n

I

Area Type of

1 1

^(Ian2)

I

l a n d u s e

Temporary I

N u c l e a r S o l a r

S i t e

LWR-U S h a l e 2 rn Seam

I ^dm' I

Tower Concept

10

rn

Seam

1

7 . 5

1

Permanent Temporary 4 kWh/m2/day

20% e f f i c i e n c y

T a b l e 4 . M a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a 1000 MW(e) power p l a n t .

I

30

1

Temporary

Source: [41

I

F u e l Weight of S t a t i o n Comments

I

Coal

1

^0.3

^-

^0.35

S o l a r 0.35 ( C o n v e r s i o n )

-

^{3 O}

I

M i n e r a l O r e s

(Tower 0.3-3 ( H e l i o s t a t )

( 1

⁽

-

5-7 y e a r s )

I

N u c l e a r

To b u i l d and o p e r a t e a l l t h e s e f a c i l i t i e s f o r h a r v e s t i n g t h e p r i m a r y e n e r g y , upgrading and t r a n s p o r t i n g i t , c o n v e r t i n g i t i n t o f i n a l ( o r s e c o n d a r y ) form and p r o c e s s i n g t h e w a s t e , a l o t o f en- e r g y i s needed, which d e c r e a s e s t h e primary e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y . '

I

0.5

-

^{0.6 FBR U 0.2%}

- ^u

0.04

-

^{1 . 2}

(

S h a l e (25 y e a r s )

*

Many p u b l i c a t i o n s on " e n e r g y a n a l y s i s " d e a l w i t h such e s t i -

I

mates o f energy r e q u i r e m e n t s ( s e e e . g . - [ a ] ) .

5 0 Coal (25 y e a r s )

The a d d i t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s t o c a r r y and p r o c e s s t h e w a t e r , pre- p a r e and r e s t o r e t h e l a n d , and p r o c e s s t h e m a t e r i a l s must a l s o be accounted f o r , a l t h o u g h t h e i r r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s a r e o b v i o u s l y of d e c r e a s i n g importance (what i s sometimes c a l l e d t h e " p r i n c i p l e o f c o n v e r g i n g s e r i e s " )

.

THE PRINCIPLE OF THE WELMM APPROACH

The WELMM approach c o n s i s t s f i r s t i n t h e d e ~ c r i p t i o ~ and q u a n t i f i c a t i o n , where p o s s i b l e , o f t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s among n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s induced by energy a c t i v i t i e s . T h i s a n a l y s i s e n t a i l s t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f q u a l i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e p r i - mary e n e r g y r e s o u r c e p o t e n t i a l , i n o r d e r t o s t u d y t h e impact o f energy consumption o n t h e r e s o u r c e s t o c k ; and t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of.WELMM r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r p r o c e s s i n g t h e s e primary i n t o f i n a l o r p r o c e s s e d r e s o u r c e s . I n t h e l a t t e r c a s e , t h e d a t a a r e c o l l e c t e d a t t h e l e v e l o f e a c h t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s .

A l l t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s g a t h e r e d i n t o t h r e e d a t a b a s e s :

-

The Resource Data Base (RDB), on primary r e s o u r c e a v a i l - a b i l i t y ;

-

The Component Data Base ( C D B ) , on t h e WELMM r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n of b a s i c m a t e r i a l s and t y p i c a l c a p i - t a l goods;

-

The F a c i l i t y Data Base (FDB), on t h e d i r e c t WELMM r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n and o p e r a t i o n o f energy f a c i l i t i e s . I t i n c l u d e s t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r produc- t i o n o f b o t h c a p i t a l goods c o n s t i t u t i n g t h e f a c i l i t y and b a s i c m a t e r i a l s used f o r o p e r a t i n g t h e f a c i l i t y and m a n u f a c t u r i n g t h e c a p i t a l goods.

Second, t h e s e d a t a b a s e s a r e used i n r e s o u r c e e v a l u a t i o n f o r energy a l t e r n a t i v e s . Two main a p p l i c a t i o n s a r e c o n s i d e r e d : e v a l u a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r l a r g e - s c a l e development of l o c a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s , and improvement of comparisons o f e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s , r e g i o n a l o r n a t i o n a l s t r a t e g i e s , o r g l o b a l energy o p t i o n s .

The WELMM Data Bases

B e f o r e b e i n g c o m p u t e r i z e d , t h e d a t a b a s e s must b e compiled i n f i l e s . S t a n d a r d f i l e f o r m a t s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e t h r e e d a t a b a s e s have been developed and a r e now b e i n g t e s t e d u s i n g d a t a on s e l e c t e d r e s o u r c e s , components o r f a c i l i t i e s .

A l a r g e p a r t of t h e i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d i s g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e - - t h o u g h i t may have t o be p r o c e s s e d t o f i t t h e WELMM format--or i s b e i n g o b t a i n e d f o r t h e num'erous a n a l y t i c programs f o r energy s t r a t e g i e s , n a t i o n a l o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l m a t e r i a l s

p o l i c y ( c f . d i s c u s s i o n s on New Economic O r d e r ) , w a t e r and l a n d management, e t c . A b a s i c problem i s t o make a l l t h e s e p i e c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n c o h e r e n t w i t h e a c h o t h e r and, i f p o s s i b l e , more r e l i a b l e by means of thorough c r i t i c a l a n a l y s i s . I f t h i s f i r s t s t e p p r o v e s s u c c e s s f u l , t h e main d a t a w i l l be computerized.

Through d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h o t h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s ( e . g . The World Energy Conference, t h e US G e o l o g i c a l Survey, The I n s t i t u t F r a n ~ a i s du P d t r o l e ) , we a r e meanwhile r e v i e w i n g e x i s t i n g d a t a b a s e s , whether computerized o r n o t .

The Resource Data Base (RDB)

The RDB i s "opened" by t h e e n e r g y and t h e m i n e r a l r e s o u r c e s . W e a r e e x p l o r i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of opening it through t h e o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ; manpower i s n o t s y s t e m a t i c a l l y i n c l u d e d f o r t h e t i m e b e i n g . I t i s planned t o s t o r e o n l y d a t a r e l a t e d t o I

WELMM a s s e s s m e n t f o r e n e r g y s t r a t e g i e s , a s shown i n F i g u r e 4 . 1 I f p o s s i b l e , c o n n e c t i o n s w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h o t h e r d a t a b a s e s y s t e m s o f g l o b a l s c a l e ( f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e " M a n i f i l e " of t h e U n i v e r s i t y of Manitoba f o r world n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l l i c depos- i t s ) o r r e g i o n a l s c a l e ( t h e US N a t i o n a l Coal Data B a s e ) , through a d a t a b a s e management s y s t e m s u c h a s DILOS of t h e Computing C e n t e r o f t h e USSR Academy o f S c i e n c e s .

A p a r t from some' s p e c i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s ( f o r i n s t a n c e , a c a s e s t u d y f o r r e g i o n a l development, n o t i n i t i a l l y based on e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s ) , t h e d a t a w i l l be c o l l e c t e d by c o u n t r y . The c o u n t r i e r t o be a n a l y z e d w i l l be s e l e c t e d t h r o u g h energy r e s o u r c e s c r i t e r i c a n a l o g o u s t o t h o s e used f o r o u r c o a l s t u d i e s [ 9 1 , i n which w e c h o s e a b o u t 30 c o u n t r i e s having d e c l a r e d more t h a n 1 b i l l i o n m e t r i c t o n s e q u i v a l e n t o f c o a l r e s o u r c e s .

The d a t a o f F i g u r e 4 , w h i l e t e n t a t i v e , show t h e emphasis on WELMM i m p a c t s i f e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s a r e e x p l o i t e d . S i m i l a r d a t a f o r l a n d and w a t e r w i l l be r e g i s t e r e d f o r t h e o t h e r e n e r g y f a c i l i t i e s a l o n g t h e energy c h a i n s .

The Components Data Base (CDB)

T h i s i s t h e f i r s t s t e p of " n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a c c o u n t i n g " , i n s p i r e d by t h e well-documented " e n e r g y a c c o u n t i n g " o r e n e r g y a n a l y s i s . A s f a r a s a p p l i c a b l e , we a r e c a l c u l a t i n g o r measuring t h r o u g h d i r e c t a n a l y s i s t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e c o n t e n t o f b a s i c m a t e r i a l s ( e . g . w a t e r , e n e r g y , m i n e r a l c o n t e n t of s t e e l o r aluminum) o r b a s i c components ( p i p e s , pumps, h e a t e x c h a n g e r s , t u r b i n e s ) .

For m a t e r i a l s a c c o u n t i n g , t h e a n a l y s i s g o e s a s f a r a s t h e raw m a t e r i a l o r f h e mining p r o c e s s . For s t a i n l e s s s t e e l , f o r i n s t a n c e , we a r e a s s e s s i n g t h e t o t a l impact o f mining i r o n , n i c k e l , chromium o r e s and c o a l , and of p o s s i b l e o v e r b u r d e n t o be handled o r d i s p o s e d o f , depending on t h e t y p e of mining.

Sr O m -4 0 U

a: P ) d P )

!a, P O C SrP) P)

2

b U U

a W

I

P

For some m a t e r i a l s , energy c o n t e n t , w a t e r c o n t e n t , and m i n e r a l c o n t e n t a r e w e l l documented, and o u r main t a s k i s t o c o l l e c t and review t h e d a t a , and o f t e n t o r e n d e r them c o h e r e n t . For l a n d , a s p e c i a l a n a l y s i s w i l l have t o be made, based on t h e p r o c e s s used f o r energy s t r a t e g i e s . Chains of p r o c e s s e s ( t o be d e s c r i b e d ) w i l l be i d e n t i f i e d - - s a y , mining ( i r o n , n i c k e l , c h r o - mium o r e s and c o a l , f o r i n s t a n c e , f o r s t a i n l e s s s t e e l ) - - a n d

" l a n d a c c o u n t e d n t o p e r m i t a s s e s s m e n t of t h e l a n d c o n t e n t o f one u n i t of composite o r b a s i c m a t e r i a l . (See Appendix 2 f o r t h e c o n t e n t of t h i s d a t a b a s e ) .

A component i s d e f i n e d a s any major p i e c e of equipment used i n t h e subsystems of a g i v e n f a c i l i t y ; f o r a power p l a n t , f o r example, we c o n s i d e r b u i l d i n g , b o i l e r , t u r b i n e , g e n e r a t o r , c o o l i n g t o w e r s , and s o f o r t h . D i f f e r e n t p r o c e s s e s o r f a c i l i - t i e s , s u c h a s t h e l i g h t w a t e r r e a c t o r (LWR) o r a c o a l f i r e d power p l a n t , o f t e n have some i d e n t i c a l components ( t u r b o g e n e r a - t o r , c o o l i n g t o w e r ) ; and f o r d i f f e r e n t c h a i n s some common com- p o n e n t s c a n a l s o be found ( p i p e network f o r o i l and h o t w a t e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n )

.

The t y p e o f equipment t o be c o n s i d e r e d w i l l depend mainly on t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a : c l e a r l y e a c h energy f a c i l i t y c a n n o t be d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o a g r e a t number of i n d i v i d u a l p i e c e s o f equip- ment. Where such d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n e x i s t s we w i l l u s e i t * ; b u t where i t d o e s n o t , we w i l l c o n s i d e r major equipment c a t e - g o r i e s ( c f . Appendix 1 ) . For e a c h c a t e g o r y a rough e s t i m a t e of t h e WELMM r e q u i r e m e n t s p e r u n i t o f o u t p u t w i l l be made, u s i n g a v a i l a b l e i n p u t / o u t p u t models. For example, f o r e l e c t r i c a l equipment t h e WELMM a n a l y s i s w i l l c o n s i s t i n e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e a v e r a g e e n e r g y , manpower and m a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e m e n t s t o produce one u n i t of o u t p u t i n t h e e l e c t r i c a l i n d u s t r y . I n g e n e r a l , we w i l l n e g l e c t t h e l a n d and w a t e r r e q u i r e m e n t s , s i n c e t h e u s e o f t h e s e two r e s o u r c e s is v e r y l i m i t e d (compared t o mining opera- t i o n s , o r even t o energy i n f r a s t r u c t u r e s ) .

For a g i v e n f a c i l i t y , t h e c o r r e s p o n d e n c e between components f o r which d i r e c t a c c o u n t i n g e x i s t s and t h o s e f o r which i t d o e s n o t w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d by decomposing t h e c a p i t a l c o s t . ( F o r t h e b a s i c f i l e s f o r t h i s d a t a b a s e , s e e Appendix 3.)

*

An e x t e n s i v e components s t u d y f o r LWR r e a c t o r s h a s been c a r r i e d o u t by E l e c t r i c i t 6 d e F r a n c e and made a v a i l a b l e t o us.

More and more d i r e c t a c c o u n t i n g of r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e m e n t s i s b e i n g done ( c f

.

B a t t e l l e [ I 01

,

B e c h t e l [ 11

I .

The Facility Data Base (FDB)*

An energy process and the associated facility are analyzed in terms of WELMM to bring out the whole set of resources required for operating and constructing the facility: the d i r e c t r e s o u r c e s . These encompass the resources consumed where and when the facility is built and is in operation (on-site resources), those consumed in the manufacture of the capital goods of the facility, and those consumed for the production of all the materials involved at any of these steps.

I n d i r e c t r e s o u r c e s refers to those required for the invest- ments induced in related industries (basic materials or equip- ment industries) by the deployment of energy strategies.

The basic file for WELMM analysis of an energy process and/

or facility is given in Appendix 4. A few case studies on typ- ical facilities are being made to judge the value and practi- cability of such a file. One difficulty is due to the fact that the available information comes from various sources. Most of them are of US origin, but we are cross-checking these data with non-US organizations** in Europe and elsewhere.

Because of scale effects, there is a decided trend towards

"standard classes" of facilities, such as the 250,000 t.d.w.

(tons dead weight) oil tankers, the 1000 MW(e) nuclear power reactor, coal unit trains, and the 10 million ton refinery.

In their Energy Supply Planning Model [Ill, Bechtel identifies 91 such energy-related facilities, 66 energy supply facilities, and 25 energy transportation facilities; some of them, for instance at the production level (oil wells), are already rela- tively aggregated.

There follow a few comments on the various resource require- ments associated with a WELMM analysis (Figure 51, some of which apply particularly to operation (process analysis)

.

P r i m a r y i n p u t : As we are here looking at the energy pro-

cess, the main inputs of all the facilities are energy commod- ities, either energy resources or secondary energy products.

*

Work on the FDB is done in close cooperation with Y. Kononov and takes into account investigations such as the Irkustk model [ 121 and the Bechtel study [I 1 1

.

* *

We are cooperating closely with French organizations (Delegation Gdn6rale

a

llEnergie, Electricit6 de France,

Commissariat

a

1'Energie Atomique, Institut Fran~ais du Pdtrole, Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minigres, Charbonnages de France, etc.).

PRl MARY INPUT

iIeu-'

CONSU MPTlON

CAP1 TAL GOODS REQUIREMENTS

OUTPUT PHYSICAL LOSSES F i r e 5. Procesl anplyah.

W a t e r r e q u i r e m e n t Wf ( f d e n o t e s a f i n a l e n e r g y commodity and n o t a primary e n e r g y r e s o u r c e ) : Most i n d u s t r i a l p r o c e s s e s r e q u i r e w a t e r . I d e n t i f y i n g t h e s o u r c e o f t h e w a t e r and pos- s i b l y t r a n s p o r t i n g it can be a major problem, a s i n t h e planned l a r g e - s c a l e u s e s o f US Western c o a l o r i n d u s t r i a l developments i n a r i d r e g i o n s , o r even sometimes i n h y p e r i n d u s t r i a l i z e d a r e a s

( c o o l i n g f o r n u c l e a r ) . Thus, e a c h p r o c e s s i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d f i r s t by i t s w a t e r i n t a k e .

Sometimes a f r a c t i o n o f t h e w a t e r i n p u t i s consumed i n t h e p r o c e s s , i . e . n o t r e t u r n e d t o t h e s o u r c e ( w i t h t h e c o o l i n g towe f o r e x a m p l e ) ; w a t e r i n p u t d a t a a r e t h e r e f o r e supplemented by w a t e r c o n s u m p t i o n d a t a .

D e a l i n g w i t h w a t e r q u a n t i t i e s may, i n some c a s e s , be i n s u f c i e n t : These r e q u i r e m e n t s may c o r r e s p o n d t o a c e r t a i n w a t e r q u a l i t y which s h o u l d t h e n be s p e c i f i e d . Most o f t e n , t h e w a t e r u s e m o d i f i e s o r d e t e r i o r a t e s i t s q u a l i t y and c a u s e s p o l l u t i o n , and t h e w a t e r must b e t r e a t e d b e f o r e i t i s d i s p o s e d o f . T h i s a s p e c t w i l l n o t e x p l i c i t l y be t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n t h e WELMM a n a l y s i s ; i t i s p a r t o f t h e e c o l o g i c a l impact which is b e i n g comprehensively s t u d i e d [ 7 , 1 7 ] . I n many c a s e s , t e m p e r a t u d i f f e r e n c e s between i n l e t and o u t l e t c a n a l s o b e of v a l u e , and w i l l be i n c l u d e d i n t h e WELMM a c c o u n t i n g a s f a r a s p o s s i b l e .

Energy r e q u i r e m e n t s Ef ( f a g a i n d e n o t i n g a f i n a l e n e r g y commodity) and energy e f f i c i e n c y : A s shown i n F i g u r e 6 , Ef r e p r e s e n t s a n c i l l a r y e n e r g y consumption, and d o e s n o t i n c l u d e autoconsumption, which i s t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n primary e f f i - c i e n c y . Two t y p e s o f a n c i l l a r y e n e r g y a r e c o n s i d e r e d : e l e c - t r i c i t y ( s p e c i f i c u s e s ) , and f u e l s ( c o a l , d i e s e l , o t h e r o i l p r o d u c t s , .

. .

⁾

.

ANCILLARY ENERGY

CONSUMPTION E f NET

PROCESS ENERGY

PRIMARY INPUT OUTPUT

LOSSES

Figure 6. Energy requirements and energy efficiency.

Primary e f f i c i e n c y i s t h e r a t i o of n e t e n e r g y o u t p u t t o energy c o n t e n t of t h e primary i n p u t * . I t c a p t u r e s t h e f r a c t i o n o f t h e e n e r g y c o n t e n t of t h e commodity e n t e r i n g t h e p r o c e s s t h a t i s r e c o v e r e d a f t e r t h i s p r o c e s s . The n e t energy o u t p u t r e p r e - s e n t s t h e d i f f e r e n c e between g r o s s e n e r g y o u t p u t and autocon- sumption ( e . g . e l e c t r i c i t y produced by a power p l a n t and used f o r pumping c o o l i n g w a t e r , o r heavy f u e l o i l consumed i n an o i l r e f i n e r y ) . The n e t e f f i c i e n c y i s t h e r a t i o of t o t a l e n e r g y con- sumed ( p r i m a r y , a n c i - l l a r y and l o s s e s ) t o n e t energy o u t p u t .

L a n d r e q u i r e m e n t s : W e d i s t i n g u i s h between e x c l u s i v e and n o n - e x c l u s i v e u s e s of l a n d ; f o r i n s t a n c e , a e r i a l e l e c t r i c a l c o r r i d o r s d o n o t e x c l u d e farming. C o n c u r r e n t u s e - - f o r example, by h y d r o e l e c t r i c r e s e r v o i r s f o r power p r o d u c t i o n , a g r i c u l t u r e , and r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s - - i s c o n s i d e r e d n o n - e x c l u s i v e .

A t i m e dimension w i l l b e added t o t h e s e two c a t e g o r i e s : t e m p o r a r y u s e r e f e r s t o l a n d u s e d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n and f o r t h e l i f e t i m e of t h e f a c i l i t y , and long-term u s e o r p e r m a n e n t - u s e t o u s e f o r r a d i o a c t i v e w a s t e s t o r a g e o r a s n u c l e a r r e a c t o r s i t e s i f t h e r e a c t o r s a r e n o t decommissioned. Moreover, i t would be use- f u l t o s p e c i f y t h e t y p e o f l a n d t h a t i s t o be used: u r b a n a r e a , a g r i c u l t u r a l , r e c r e a t i o n a l , d e s e r t , e t c .

M a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e m e n t s M: M a t e r i a l s a c c o u n t i n g i n c l u d e s consumption o f t h e main raw m a t e r i a l s , renewable equipment ( w i t h l i f e t i m e s of l e s s t h a n a y e a r o r s o ) and main equipment. Analy- s i s c o n c e r n s ciomposite m a t e r i a l s ( s t e e l o r c o n c r e t e ) and b a s i c m a t e r i a l s ( i r o n , n i c k e l , cement, a g g r e g a t e s ) . With t h e CDB it i s p o s s i b l e t o go from t h e b a s i c m a t e r i a l s t o t h e t o t a l mining r e q u i r e m e n t s and m a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g .

*

The p r i m a r y energy e f f i c i e n c y c o n c e p t i s a l s o u s e f u l i n s t u d y i n g n o t a n e n e r g y c h a i n b u t a m a t e r i a l s c h a i n .

We a l s o i n c l u d e q u a l i t y c r i t e r i a , a s t h e y a r e becoming more i m p o r t a n t b u t d i f f e r w i d e l y f o r t h e v a r i o u s energy a l t e r n a t i v e s

( n u c l e a r f i s s i o n and f u s i o n a r e c e r t a i n l y more demanding i n qua1 i t a t i v e terms t h a n s o l a r e n e r g y ) . The r e c y c l i n g p o t e n t i a l of some m a t e r i a l s w i l l a l s o grow i n importance: i r r a d i a t e d m a t e r i a a r e p e n a l i z e d i n t h i s r e s p e c t .

Waste p r o d u c t i o n i n WELMM i s n o t handled s y s t e m a t i c a l l y , a s i t i s i n o t h e r s t u d i e s [ 7 , 1 3 , 1 7 1 , b u t more i n t e r m s of m a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g . These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , a s w e l l a s m a t e r i a l s a c c o u n t i n ( i m p o r t a n t i n t h e n u c l e a r c a s e , o r f o r t h e t h e r m a l p r o d u c t i o n o hydrogen, e t c . )

,

w i l l be handled q u a l i t a t i v e l y and/or q u a n t i t a -

1

t i v e l y , depending on t h e v a r i o u s c a s e s .

Manpower r e q u i r e m e n t s M I : Manpower r e q u i r e m e n t s ( e x p r e s s e i n men and man-hours) comprise " c r i t i c a l workers" (manual worke e n g i n e e r s , m i n e r s ) and o t h e r s . " C r i t i c a l n manpower i s

t o b r i n g o u t p o s s i b l e b o t t l e n e c k s i n t h e l a r g e - s c a l e developmen o f s t r a t e g i e s due t o manpower l i m i t a t i o n s ( n u c l e a r development, f o r i n s t a n c e , i s now f a c i n g a problem w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e p o t e n

t i a l of q u a l i f i e d w e l d e r s ) .

4

WELMM A p p l i c a t i o n s

A s h a s been mentioned, two major t y p e s o f a p p l i c a t i o n a r e planned f o r t h e WELMM approach. The f i r s t d e a l s w i t h t h e r e s o u a s s e s s m e n t of r e g i o n a l p r o j e c t s f o r d e v e l o p i n g n a t u r a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s , what we might c a l l " s t r a t e g y a s s e s s m e n t " (by a n a l o g w i t h t e c h n o l o g y a s s e s s m e n t s t u d i e s ) . The second c o n s i d e r s t h e WELMM a n a l y s i s a s o n e component of c o m p a r a t i v e s t u d i e s f o r e n e r a l t e r n a t i v e s ( t e c h n o l o g i e s , s t r a t e g i e s * , o p t i o n s ) . N a t u r a l and Human Resource Requirements f o r Development of

I

Local Energy Resources

Because of t h e e s c a l a t i n g c o s t s of e x p l o r a t i o n and e x p l o i t t i o n of energy r e s o u r c e s (and a l s o , o f c o u r s e , b e c a u s e of t h e i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l s of e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n ) , t h e r e is a t r e n d t o c o n c e n t r a t e on t h e most p r o f i t a b l e d e p o s i t s - - g e n e r a l l y t h e l a r g est--and t o e x p l o i t them i n t e n s i v e l y . I n t h e Middle E a s t , f o r i n s t a n c e , o i l d e p o s i t s were e x p l o i t e d on a b a s i s of 2-305 p e r annum ( f o r 30-50 y e a r s ) ^; i n t h e North Sea (and a l s o , p r o g r e s - s i v e l y , i n t h e Gulf o f Mexico) t h e r e i s a t r e n d towards 8-125 p e r annum ( f o r a b o u t 10-1 2 y e a r s )

.

*AS o p p o s e d . t o o p t i o n , ' w h i c h h a s a s t a t i c meaning, a s t r a t - e g y i m p l i e s a t i m e dimension f o r i t s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .

Remote ( A l a s k a ) and o f f s h o r e ( N o r t h S e a ) o p e r a t i o n s l e a d t o e v e r l a r g e r WELMM r e q u i r e m e n t s . A North Sea p r o d u c t i o n p l a t - form c a n weigh one m i l l i o n t o n s ( c o n c r e t e and s t e e l ) compared t o t h e few t o n s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a normal o n s h o r e f i e l d ; and e n e r g y e x p e n s e s have grown i n a s i m i l a r way.

The t r e n d toward h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n and i n t e n s e e x p l o i t a t i o n c o u l d s t i l l grow, e s p e c i a l l y i f g i a n t a d d i t i o n a l p e t r o l e u m

r e s o u r c e s a r e e x p l o i t e d , such a s t h e Orinoco heavy c r u d e s , t h e Colorado o i l s h a l e , t h e Athabasca t a r s a n d s , t h e Gulf of Mexico g e o p r e s s u r e z o n e s . The i d e a o f a n u c l e a r hydrogen "Canton

I s l a n d " [ I 4 1 o r of t h e Greenland hydropower p l a n t [ I S ] a l s o t e n d s i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n .

Such e x p l o i t a t i o n w i l l be tremendously r e s o u r c e consuming i n , t e r m s o f m a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e m e n t s and h a n d l i n g problems f o r o i l s h a l e and t a r s a n d s * , l a n d d i s t u r b a n c e , e n e r g y b a l a n c e ( a s much a s one t h i r d of t h e r e c o v e r e d o i l can be used f o r t h e enhanced r e c o v e r y o f heavy c r u d e s ) , w a t e r management ( o n e w e l l i n a geo- p r e s s u r e zone c a n produce a s much a s 50,000 b b l of w a t e r p e r d a y ) .

A s a f i r s t s t e p toward d e a l i n g w i t h t h i s problem, and a s an example o f t h e method, we w i l l make a d e t a i l e d e n g i n e e r i n g WELMM a s s e s s m e n t o f one o r p o s s i b l y two o f t h e s e huge p e t r o l e u m r e - s o u r c e s . Our a t t e n t i o n i s e s p e c i a l l y f o c u s e d on Venezuelan Orinoco heavy c r u d e s and Gulf of Mexico g e o p r e s s u r e zones.

F i n a l l y , i t i s worth m e n t i o n i n g t h a t such an a p p r o a c h i s n o t l i m i t e d t o e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s and c o u l d e a s i l y be extended t o o r used f o r o t h e r r e s o u r c e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o a s s e s s i n g t h e WELMM r e q u i r e m e n t s o f g i a n t m i n e r a l d e p o s i t s , which we a l s o i n t e n d t o d o , it c o u l d be used f o r l a r g e w a t e r s t o r a g e p r o j e c t s , food and a g r i c u l t u r a l developments, and t h e l i k e .

Comparison of Energy A l t e r n a t i v e s

B e f o r e d e s c r i b i n g t h e v a r i o u s WELMM a p p l i c a t i o n s , i t i s w o r t h w h i l e s p e c i f y i n g t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h e WELMM a p p r o a c h t o p r o c e s s e s o f comparison, whether by t r a d i t i o n a l economic methods o r by m u l t i c r i t e r i o n a n a l y s i s . I n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l economic approach, WELMM must be viewed a s a way o f c o m p l e t i n g and improv- i n g c o m p a r i s o n s . I t b r i n g s o u t new c o n s t r a i n t s r e l a t e d t o r e - s o u r c e u t i l i z a t i o n t h a t a r e d i f f i c u l t t o a c c o u n t f o r i n t h e c a l - c u l a t i o n s . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e f o r long-term s t u d i e s , f o r which economic comparison ( c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s o r o p t i m i z a t i o n models) v e r y r a r e l y l e a d s t o a u n i q u e s o l u t i o n b e c a u s e of t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n t h e c o s t s of some i n p u t s ( s e v e r a l v a r i a n t s i n o i l p r i c e must be c o n s i d e r e d , f o r i n s t a n c e ) . I n t h i s c o n t e x t , WELMM might h e l p , t h r o u g h q u a l i t a t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , t o i d e n t i f y

*

The same would a p p l y t o Chattanooga uranium s h a l e .

t h e most s u i t a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r m s o f t h e - l o n g - t e r m r e s o u r c e a v a i l a b i l i t i e s and i n d u s t r i a l c o n s t r a i n t s of a c o u n t r y o r r e g i o n . I t c a n a l s o show more p r e c i s e l y t h e d e g r e e o f p o l i t i c a l and t e c h n o l o g i c a l dependence f o r each a l t e r n a t i v e ( e . g

. ,

t h e neces- s i t y o f i m p o r t i n g c e r t a i n t y p e s of m a t e r i a l s o r m i n e r a l s , man-

power dependence)

.

WELMM c a n improve comparisons i n a l l o w i n g u s t o t a k e i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n a feedback between t h e r e s o u r c e u t i l i z a t i o n of a g i v e n a l t e r n a t i v e , a s a s s e s s e d w i t h t h e WELMM a n a l y s i s , and i t s g l o b a l c o s t . T h i s might be v e r y u s e f u l i f t h e l a r g e - s c a l e d e v e l - opment of t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e induced e x t e n s i v e u t i l i z a t i o n o f some r e s o u r c e s , which would i n c r e a s e i t s p r i c e . L e t u s t a k e a s an i l l u s t r a t i o n t h e s i m p l e example of Table 2. A more d e t a i l e d e v a l u a t i o n , t h r o u g h WELMM a n a l y s i s , of t h e r e f e r e n c e c e i l i n g f o r c o o l i n g w a t e r would r e v e a l t h e t i m e a t which c o o l i n g t o w e r s would become n e c e s s a r y , which means a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e c a p i t a l c o s t s o f power p l a n t s . A s i m i l a r example c o u l d be g i v e n f o r t h e l a n d problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s o l a r power p l a n t s .

I

I n m u l t i c r i t e r i o n a n a l y s i s * , t h e WELMM approach may e n l a r g e t h e s e t of a t t r i b u t e s t r a d i t i o n a l l y c o n s i d e r e d ; a p a r t from

economic, p o l i t i c a l and e c o l o g i c a l a t t r i b u t e s , i t i n c l u d e s t h e r e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s c r i t e r i a . I n such c a s e s , WELMM s h o u l d be

~

viewed a s p a r t of a m u l t i c r i t e r i o n a n a l y s i s ( T a b l e 5 ) .

Comparison o f Energy T e c h n o Z o g i e s : For a g i v e n a c t i v i t y w i t h i n a n e n e r g y c h a i n , s e v e r a l c o m p e t i t i v e p r o c e s s e s o r t e c h - n o l o g i e s may e x i s t : uranium e n r i c h m e n t , f o r i n s t a n c e , c a n be a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h g a s e o u s d i f f u s i o n , u l t r a c e n t r i f u g a t i o n , n o z z l e , l a s e r . I n s u c h c a s e s , WELMM c o u l d be h e l p f u l f o r t h e comparison of p r o c e s s e s , e s p e c i a l l y when t h e economic i n f o r m a t i o n f o r them i s i n s u f f i c i e n t and u n e q u a l .

A WELMM comparison of competing p r o c e s s e s f o r o i l r e c o v e r y

was s t a r t e d i n S p r i n g 1976.

~

Although p r a c t i c e d f o r many y e a r s on a s m a l l o r experiments:

s c a l e i n v a r i o u s o i l f i e l d s , t e r t i a r y o r enhanced r e c o v e r y i s p r o b a b l y h a v i n g a f r e s h s t a r t now b e c a u s e of h i g h e r o i l p r i c e s . Many methods a r e b e i n g e x p l o r e d and used--steam c y c l i n g , steam i n j e c t i o n , i n s i t u combustion, C 0 2 m i s c i b l e , m i c e l l a r s u r f a c - t a n t s , c a u s t i c soda--and more w i l l p r o b a b l y come on l i n e - - u l t r a -

s o n i c s , l a s e r , e t c . Most of them have s t r o n g WELMM i m p l i c a t i o n s l w a t e r p r o d u c t i o n , energy a c c o u n t i n g ( t h e r m a l methods c a n u s e a s much a s one t h i r d of r e c o v e r e d o i l ) , m a t e r i a l s problems [ I 6 1

(10 l b o f s u l f o n a t e s , 3 l b o f a l c o h o l s , 1 l b of polymer f o r each b b l of o i l r e c o v e r e d w i t h enhanced w a t e r f l o o d i n g ) . For a l l o f them, t h e manpower problem i s a l s o a c u t e .

*

See 141 f o r a more d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n of t h i s problem.

T a b l e 5 . M u l t i a t t r i b u t e a n a l y s i s o f e n e r g y s t r a t e g i e s : examples o f a t t r i b u t e s t o b e c o n s i d e r e d , r e g i o n a l l y o r g l o b a l l y , a c c o r d i n g t o d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y .

i

^Water

R e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s Energy

WELMM

,

^Land

I

M a t e r i a l s

/ Manpower

E c o l o g i c a l i m p a c t s

Economic a t t r i b u t e s

O t h e r a t t r i b u t e s

A i r p o l l u t i o n Water p o l l u t i o n S o l i d w a s t e

O c c u p a t i o n a l h e a l t h C o s t o f t h e f i n a l o u t p u t Manpower (more d e t a i l e d ) C a p i t a l r e q u i r e m e n t s , e t c .

1

T e c h n o l o g i c a l d e p e n d e n c e

/

P r i m a r y r e s o u r c e s d e p e n d e n c e

I

S a f e t y ( r i s k e v a l u a t i o n )

/

R i g i d i t y ( t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f m o d i f y i n g a s t r a t e g y b e i n g i m p l e m e n t e d )

C o m p a r i s o n o f Cornpe t i t i v e E n e r g y C h a i n s : The e n e r g y c h a i n s we w i l l r e f e r t o a r e m a i n l y a l t e r n a t i v e c h a i n s f o r t h e s u p p l y of a g i v e n e n e r g y m a r k e t ( e l e c t r i c a l n e e d s , h e a t n e e d s i n u r b a n a r e a s ) . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e p r o c e s s c o m p a r i s o n i s e x t e n d e d t o t h e c o m p a r i s o n o f a s e r i e s o f p r o c e s s e s from p r i m a r y e n e r g y e x t r a c t i o n o r c o l l e c t i o n t o f i n a l e n e r g y u s e .

Because o f t h e d i v e r s i t y of energy r e s o u r c e s , t h e v a r i o u s a c t i v i t i e s do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y run i n t h e same o r d e r * . T h e r e i s t h u s no s t a n d a r d format f o r t h e d e s c r i p t i o n of a c h a i n . A s examples of d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of c o m p l e x i t y , t h e n u c l e a r e l e c - t r i c i t y and s o l a r e l e c t r i c i t y c h a i n s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n F i g u r e 7 . The J e t P r o p u l s i o n L a b o r a t o r y h a s a l r e a d y made comparisons o f e l e c t r i c i t y c h a i n s [ 1 8 ] : s e e f o r i n s t a n c e t h e i r r e s u l t s f o r two d i f f e r e n t c h a i n s , c o a l w i t h l i m e s c r u b b e r f l u e g a s d e s u l f u r - i z a t i o n power p l a n t , and uranium w i t h t h e l i g h t w a t e r r e a c t o r ( s e e T a b l e s 6 and 7 )

.

1 I n t h e BNL R e f e r e n c e Energy System and A s s o c i a t e d Data Baa [ 1 7 ] , e i g h t a c t i v i t i e s a r e s y s t e m a t i c a l l y c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e f o l - lowing o r d e r (when t h e y o c c u r ) : e x t r a c t i o n , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , pra c e s s i n g , d i s t r i b u t i o n , s t o r a g e , c o n v e r s i o n , e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n , end u s e s . I n t h e JPL E v a l u a t i o n o f C o n v e n t i o n a l Power Systems

[ 1 8 ] , a s a r e s u l t of a h i g h e r a g g r e g a t i o n , o n l y f i v e s t e p s a r e c o n s i d e r e d : h a r v e s t i n g , u p g r a d i n g , t r a n s p o r t i n g , c o n v e r s i o n t o

e l e c t r i c i t y , management o f f i n a l waste.

I

Solar

1

Mining

M i l l i n g

+ I

UF6 Conversion

Fuel Manufacture

Transportation ( i f Pu) E l e c t r i c i

rans st tat ion

E l e c t r i c i t y Transportation Reprocessing D i s t r i b u t i o n

Transportation

4

F i n a l Use

Waste Storage

Figure 7 . Nuclear and solar thermal electricity chains.