Was There a Regime Change in the German Monetary Transmission Mechanism in 1983?

! #"$ % & ('*),+ .-/0213'4 5)61 78! .9: #";+ 21 < =41> ?7@2"A

B"C21D8+ )EC8)E=41 < GF?0H1I)J8+ ),1 KMLONOP4QSR

T

U(6WVJ XZYI[\ XZYZ6]_^X! XYI`#]_a2V#bGcVJd6ef^gZ]

hiXjWVJklVJVGmEcZGnoVE Vk_jVJk_d*ZXZY

c

p d^XZ^a*,VJkqrskqWVjtEg muVjWvMkqjj6XZjtEgZ muVJ]qk_tEgZHw dTZ]qVxc Vy

`zaOf^]_YV{}|zXkq~6jWkqVc Vynoe XZY ZznoV€M$x4U(W]_kqX$‚„ƒ@…‡†‰ˆ‡ŠM‹

Œ3Ž6x‘’“

…Mt6X”VHkqX”~jVJkq•” VJkq^XZjS^m–VgZOVJ XZjWa*kqjjkq^X0a—tEg XZk_jWa˜^m(‚a* Xa—^XZ,VE Ie^]_kqt6‰ Wkq~4 V

™

ZkqVzYkqšf6X”V(t6^XZt]qZjkq^XZj–6•” Yk_XZ•HkqVJj@jVE Zkq]_klViOYZZWk_XZ•›VJgZ#ekq^Y—^mœa—^XZ,VE VE W•6Vk_XZ•›”

VJgMU(ZXZYZ6j XZdw€–hiXVgZk_jžjVJZYja* ]_]YoX a—k_t\a—^oYZ]qjŸm ^ŸVgZGa*^XZ6VJ WHj6t6VJ^–^mVgZz‚„6a* X

t6^XZ^aH3 W X ]qo¡6YDk_XDYZ,VE kq]V^OYZ6VWa*kqXZ‡VJgSj^t6jGm ^?VgZSt^XTVJ jVJkqXZ•6jZ]lVJj(m ^XZYDk_X

VJg]_kqV VJZW€h¢V\VJZWXZjG^V(VJg V\k_XZjVE Zkq]_klVJk_6j@YZ6Vt6VY>k_XDe6~okq^Zj(v?^d*k_X3VgZOx£jG WSef^j{

jkqZ]q*jeZkq^Zj€8¤GgTZj6kqV\ eZey Wj\VJg V(VJgZa—^XZ,VE *VJ XZjWa*kqjjWk_^X3a—tEgZ XZk_jWa¥v( jM j^X Z]l

jWVJ Z]qS XZY¦gZ6XZtZ^XZzk_a—ef^WVE XTV–eZWt6^XZYZklVJk_^X*m ^( Ha—^XZ6VJ W4VJ •,VJkqXZ•2e^]_kqt6Ov( j\j VJkqjW§6Y$€

¨©,ª¬«I­®W¯°±²[(^k_X”V• VJkq^X³ XZ ]qojkqjz†I Wd^x~³W•kqa*!jWvMklVJtEgZkqXZ•´ XZ ]qojkqjMa—^XZ6VJ Wµe^]_kqt6

a—^XZ63YZa* XZY$~t,VJ^#W^Gt6^Wt,VJk_^X‰a—^Y]

¶”·@¸º¹,»l¼°E°,½¾\¹¼¿À½Á­±–[\Ôwƒ–ă8ÅZ

Æ}ÇHȏÉËÊÌÎÍÏGÐ8ÌEÉ¢ÌÎÑÁÒÓÍÌ8Ô,ÕÖËÈ×ØÒØÕÖwÙÛÚ6ÑÜÑÁÚEÝyÒØÞÒÓÍß@ÉËÊȟÞÌEÉ¢Ì@ÕÖËÈWÞGÒØÍMÊÈWѦÖÀÉËÕÞxÒÓÈÖfÌ,ÍÞ\ÙÛÚ6Ñfà}Ú6á\á(ÈWÍÉËÒØÍߖÚ6ÍMÌÎÍMÈÌÎÑÁ×ÓÒØÈÑ

Ý,ÈWÑÁÖËÒØÚ,͇ÚÎÙZÉËÊȖÜÌÎÜÈÑâ¦ãÕÑËÉËÊÈWÑËá\Ú,ÑÁÈ,äåfȖÌ,ÑËȞß6ÑÁÌÎÉËÈ}ÙÛÕהÉËÚ#ԔæÕÑÁß,ÈW͇Ç2Ú,×ÓÉËÈWÑÁÖCÌÎÍÞОÒØÑÁÖÀÉËÒØÍç;ÕèÑËÒéà¢ÊSÙÛÚ,Ñ;ÊÈ×ØÜxÙÛÕ×àÚ,á(ê

á\ÈÍÉÁÖWâwãÒÓÍÌÎÍàÒØÌ,×ÖËÕÜÜÚ,ÑËɜå¦Ì6Ö¦ÜÑËÚEÝyÒéÞxÈWÞ#èyëGÉËÊÈ@ìŸãí(äîxÚ,ÍÞxÈWÑÀÙÛÚ6ÑÁÖÁà¢ÊyÕÍßÖÀèÈÑÁÈÒéà¢ÊMïðÎïäxÌÎÍÞ#ÉËÊÈ@ñwÕÑÁÚ,ÜÈWÌ,͇òfÚ,á(ê

á\ÒØÖÁÖËÒÓÚ6ÍzÕÍÞxÈќÉÁÊÈ@óÑÁÌ,ÒÓÍÒØÍß\ÌÎÍÞSôÚ6èÒØ×ÓÒÓÉ ëMÚÎÙõœÈÖÀÈÌÎÑ¢à¢ÊÈÑ¢ÖföÑËÚ6ß,Ñ¢ÌÎá\á\È?÷qà}Ú,ÍÉÁÑÁÌ6àiɜø;Úâwñfõ;ù$ãZô„õœúò¦óœû,ü6ý6þÿWï}â

hiX* ›t6^ZeZ]q#^mœ VJk_t6]_6jZjW]_kqZjx££x££ÀgZ6XZt,m ^WVgžt^XZjWVZt,VJj(jWa ]_]YXZ a*kqtMa*^oYZ]qj

m ^–VJgZza*^X6VE W—j6t6VJ^\^mœVJg„‚„6a* X 6t^X^a2 XZY §XYZj\VJg V(VJgzVJ XZjWa*kqjjkq^X a—tEgZ XZk_jWa

^mH‚Wa X a—^XZ,VE µef^]qk_t, gZ j3tEg X•Yº W^ZXZY x£Ã€ hiX gZ63~kq6ve^jjWk_Z]qI j^XZj3m ^

VJgk_j„tEg XZ• WVJgZ4k_a—eZ]qa—X”VE Vk_^XI^m?VgZ—a*^Wkq•k_YtEgZ XZ•*J V—a—tEgZ XZk_jWa ˃@…z† Sk_X

†I WtEgIx£Ã”YZklš¦6X”V–a* tW^6t^XZ^a*kqt\6•k_a—j8YZMV^2 „tEg X•Mk_X—•^x~WXZa—X”V(kqX>x£” XZY* X

k_Xt j?k_XHk_X”VJ6X Vk_^XZ ]Tty eZklVE ]Ta—^x~a—X”VjŸ^C§X XZt6k ]T]qk_J ]_k_¡ VJkq^X$€œ|#jkqXZ•‡jVE Vk_jWVk_t ]”VJ^o^]_j6

ZjW]_kqZj8t]qy W]q2t^X§Za—jžVJgZMtEg X•Mk_X46•k_a—\k_X— ja* ]q]YoX a—k_t(a*^oYZ]m ^

™

WVW]qa—^XZ,

Á†‰Ã,ZkqXZt^a*ZeZkqt6jz XZY>k_X”VJ6jV#J VjGm ^(VgZ„ef6k_^oYx£”Ä2{Gx££ÅZ€@U( j6Y‰^X>gZ6MjWZ]qVjMjgZ

W•Zj#VJg V#VgZ2a—^XZ,>jZeeZ]q!t^Z]_Y!XZ^VzfHt^X”V^]q]_Y‰ muV„x£Ã€M[(]_ ]lwjZtEg §XZYk_XZ•*k_j

XZ^V\k_XD]_kqXZzvMklVJg3VgZt]_ k_a ^m;VJg"!SVjtEgZ›U(ZXYZjW XZd#$!U@Vg VMkqV(g jGt6^X”VJ^]_]_6Y3k_X&%w VJkq^X

~ok D 3a—^XZ,VE IVE •,VJk_X•3jWVJ V•jWk_XZt6OVJgZa—k_YYZ]_H^m@VJgZDx£j€H¤GgZ

™

ZjVJk_^X vMg6VJg„^

XZ^V„VgZ4a*^X6VE W0VJ •,VJkqXZ•>k_X ‚„6a* X”0v?^dY²^„XZ^VHkqj^m\jW^a——kqa*e^VE XZt6f6ty j4VJgZ

XZ,v¬ƒ8Z^ey X0[(6XTVJ ];U( XZd'Àƒ?[\U(Gjjz 4jk_a—k_]_ –a*^X6VE W3e^]qk_t6 jWVJ V•€

hiX t^X”VJ jWVV^)Zj6]_kqZj*fjWZ]qVjœ^VgZWjWy WtEgZWj„m ^ZXZY a*^oYZ6]_jzm ^‡VJgZa—^XZ,VE IjWt,VJ^

vMkqVg jWZeZe^j6YZ]qsjVE ]_ ]_ VJkq^XZj3m ^DjWk_a—k_]_ *~ Wk Z]qj! XZYº^ZjW~ VJk_^X eWk_^oYZj+Àj6€Ó•Z€l

bGcVJde^gZ]-, r ^]lVJWj.}x££,gZXZt66m ^VJg br¬f XZY`#ZZWk_tEg/}x£££0,€z†‰^W^x~6œ *XoaOf6‡^m

VgZ^Wjg y~>m ^ZXZYµ 0jWVJ Z]q!†IÃa*^X6²Ya* XZY´m ZXZt,VJk_^X m ^ ef6k_^oY´t^x~kqXZ• VJgZx£j

À€Ó•€qo`‡ XZj6X1,32kqa4}x££”ÄΔhijjWk_XZ•5, ¤›c^YVJ}x££”ÄÎTntEg X •]6}x££,r ^]qVWj7, bGcVJde^gZ]

y££”Îr ^]lVJWj¤6xc j~ok_WVJ , bGcVd6ef^g]8x££9΀žntEgO M]_ VJkq^Xk_jC X›k_a—e^WVJ X”VœeZ6

™

k_jklVJ

m ^C zjWZtt6jWjWm Z]Za—^XZ,VE VE W•6Vk_XZ•MjVJJ VJ•2 XZY2klVJjC:k_jVJXt?m ^Ÿ ]q]”^mVgZ‡y£j;k_j

™

ZjVJkq^XZY

”ZjW]_kqZj€8‚„kl~XVgZMk_a—ef^VE Xt\^mVJg#kqjjWZGm ^žVJgZMt6ZWX”V–a*^X6VE WOe^]qk_t62^mwVJgZ#ƒ–[\U klV

k_j–^mœkqX”VJWjV?V^2k_X”~jWVk_•” VJMVJgZzy j^XZj–m ^@VJgZzt^X”VJ YZkqt6VJ^W§XZYk_XZ•j–k_X—VJgZ#YZklš¦6X”V(jWVJYZk_6j€

p XZ(^<;Wt6Vkq~?^mZa—eZk_Wk_ty ]YoX a—k_t@a—^YZ6]_kqXZ•Gk_jœVJ^zjVE Z]qk_jWg2 MVJk_a—8k_X”~ Wk X”VCa*^oYZ6]m ^œVJgZ

^ZjW~ VJk_^X3ef6kq^Y$€Ÿ¤Ggojkqm$k_X3^XSjWVZYD HjWVE Z]_za*^oYZ]k_j–m ^ZXZY> XZYDk_XD XZ^VJg(jVJZY3jtEg

Da*^oYZ6]Ÿk_jX^VSm ^ZXY$œVJgZOm ^Wa*6SjWVZY eZe WX”VJ]l tEgZkq6~j›kqVJj‡•^” ]žkqX DjZeWk_^‡v( y XZY

^XZt6^Z]qYDjk_a—eZ]l*•^4vMklVJg3VgZ6jZ]lVJjG^m;VJg^j› VgZ^Wj\vMgZ^4g y~„jVE Z]qk_jWgZY> OVJkqa*zk_X”~ k_ X”V

jet6kq§t VJkq^X$€ShiX0VgZOeZWjWX”V„ty jWœgZ^xv?6~=>*j6jZ]lVJj XZY0gZ6‡mÀ SWy tEgZkqXZ•3t6^XZt]qZjkq^XZj

™

ZkqV>jZWeZkqjk_X• t ZjW‰gZ6~ k Z]_6j XZYµa*^oYZ6]_k_X• eZeZW^” tEg D~W jWk_a—k_]_ ›V^ Vg V4^m

br¬$m ^S a*e]_€2¤GgZW6m ^W*klVk_j^m?k_X”V6jWVV^!jVJZYVJgZYZklš¦66XZt6jHkqXa*^WYZ6VJ k_]ž XZYVJ^

YZ,VJWa*kqXZSVJg›Wy jW^XZjMm ^\VJg›t6^X”VJ YZk_t,VJ^ §XYZk_XZ•j€

k_X4jW^a*GY6VE k_]Á€6!SkqšfWX”V8VJ6jWVJj@m ^8a—^Y]ZjVE Zkq]_klViO XY3†I d^x~4W•kqa*\jvMkqVtEgZk_XZ•1Á†In@ža*^oYZ]qj

vMk_]q]ž—jY k_XVJg—t6^a—e kqj^X¦€—¤Gg*]_ VVSa—^Y]_jeZ]_kqtkqV]qI ]_]q^xv m ^Ykqšf6X”VHW•kqa*6jk_X

VJg—j a—eZ]_kqXZ•Def6kq^Y$€¤Gg—YZ VE ! 4ZjWY VJ^! VVJ tEg eZ^Z Zk_]qkqVk_j#VJ^DVJg—Ykqšf6X”VHW•kqa*6jk_X

y tEg3ef6kq^Y$€ž|zjkqXZ•HVgZjW‡VJ6tEgZXZk

™

jv(Sg^efMVJ^H•6V\ H6VWVJ?eZk_t,VJZW‡^m$ef^jWjkqZ]_#6•k_a—j– XZY

tEg X•jHk_X 6•k_a—jVJgZ X vMklVJg eZ,~ok_^ZjW]qjY a* XZjm ^„tEgZtEdTkqXZ•‰VgZ—Vk_a—k_X”~ k_ XZt6^mG

a—^YZ6]Á€#‚kq~ok_X•4VgZ2YZ VE * *tEg Xt2V^ YZ6tk_YHm ^MVJgZ6a*jW]l~jzvMgZk_tEg0eWk_^oYZjz ›]_kqd]lDVJ^*f›k_X

VJgHj a*›6•k_a—„kqmViv(^3W•kqa*6j# H ]_]q^xv(6Y!m ^6wkqV#k_j#^m8kqXTVWjWVzkqmVJgZ,!e WVkqVk_^XDVJgHj a*e]_

ekq^YDkqX! —jWk_a—k_] –v( y! jA€

r 4m ^otZj›^X !t6^a*eZ kqj^X ^m?VJgZ4~ k_ Z]_6jœY VE ! XZY a—^oYZ]qjt^XZjWk_YZ66Y ”+I XZY br¬

6jet,VJkq~]lZt ZjVgZjW„ VJg^j\Z j6Y>VgZkq\ XZ ]qoj6jG^X3~6W jk_a—k_]_ @jWojWVa—jG^m;~ k_ Z]_6j

XZYDVgZ6> ]_j^•kq~jW>B—tkqX”VJ]lDYZ6VJ k_]qYDkqXm ^a* Vk_^X*^XDVJgZY VE 4 XZYDVJ6tEgZXZk

™

j#Zj6YIj^Vg V

VJgk_–6jZ]lVJj?ty X3‡WeZ]qk_t VJ6Y$€žhiX VgZ‡XZoVGj6t6VJkq^X*v?St6^a*eZ MVJgZzY VJ O XZY ~ Wk ]_j@^m¦VJgZ

Viv?^0jWVZYZk_6j€>hiX n6t€!Ã!VgZkqHa—^oYZ]qjH k_:%Z YZ6jtWk_Y´ XZY t6^X”VJJ jWVJ6Y$€‰|zjkqXZ•IjVE XY Y

e a—6VJ6?t6^XZjVE XZt,*VjVJj\kqX—VgZzm  a*,v(^d4^m$~t6V^(6W^(t6^Wt6Vk_^X*a*^oYZ6]_jo ›eZ6]_k_a—k_XZ W

jWVJ Zkq]_kqViO X ]lojk_j–k_j@em ^a—Y*k_X nt€8ÅZ€žˆ Yjt6kqeVJkl~‡†0n X ]qojkqj–kqj?We^WVY*k_XDnot€–Ä„ XZY

t^XZt]qZjkq^XZj# •kq~6X‰kqX‰nt€C€

D EGF H IKJ56J

¤GgZ\jW6Vjž^m~ k_ Z]qj^ZjW~ VJk_^XOef6kq^YZj XZY2 jkqt(Y VE ztEgZ J t,VJ6k_jVJkqtjžZjWYkqXLS XZYObr

]_kqjWVY0kqX¤Ÿ ]_ €HU?^VJgjVJZYZkqjZjW

™

WVW]q¦ZX YM;WjWVJ6Y jWy jW^X ]ŸY VE €„rsgk_]_.3t^XZjWk_YZ6j

VJg^Zj6W~ Vk_^XDeWk_^oY0x£”Ä>ËÞ{Mx££ÅNÀÅ<ÎZbr Zj„Y VE 2m ^Sy£”ON}P8{My££N Å<–eZ]qZj\eZWj a*e]_

~ ]_j3m ^3]_ ••6Y³~ k_ Z]_6j vMgZkqtEg XZ6tjWjJ sm ^ VJg jVE Vk_jVJk_t ]S X ]qojWk_j€ `z6XZt‡VJgZ,

6šft,VJkl~]l j3Y VE ‰m W^a x£”ĉ^XTv( WYZj€ ‚Wa X a*^XZ6VJ W ZXZkl§ty VJk_^XQÁ‚›†I|R›^XSZ]lµ

x££?kqj4k_XZt6]_ZYZ6Y kqX ^Vg ^j~ VJkq^X eWk_^oYZj— XZY

™

Zkq6j*jWef6tk ]Ga*^oYZ]qk_XZ•,š¦^WVJj6€³¤GgZ

XY ^m?VJgZ4jJ a*eZ]q4ef6k_^oY k_j„jeZef^jY]q YZ,VJWa*kqXZY ” Y VE ! y~ k_]_ Zk_]qkqVi! V„VgZVJk_a—^m?VJgZ

X ]qoj6j€3¤GgZ*jJ a—eZ]qf6•k_XZXk_XZ•j„W^Z•gZ]lt^k_XZt6k_YZvMkqVg VgZ4VJk_a—OvMgZ6X VJgZT!U¬jWVE WVJ6Y klVJj

e^]_kqt6>^m@a—^XZ,VE !VJ •6VJkqXZ•Z€#hiX0mÀ t6V¦kqX x£”Å3kqV‡ XZXZ^ZXZt6Y a—^XZ6‰•W^vGVgIVE •,V‡m ^#VJgZ

§WjWVMVJkqa*‡m ^x£”Ä€8¤GgTZj6VJgZ„a—^XZ6VJ W*VE W•6Vk_XZ•4jVJJ VJ•DjWVJ WVY!k_X x£”Äo€

p T~okq^Zj]lVJgZHXZYZ^•XZ^Zj‡~ k_ Z]qjMZj6Yk_X!VJgZ2Viv?^3jVJZYZkqj „~0jWk_a—k_] €(hiX k_•ZW

Ô,ÕÖËÈ×ØÒØÕÖ a$æÕxÉÁÏ,ÈWÜÚ6Ê×b Ç2Ú,×ÓÉËÈWÑÁÖ

c

ÕÌÎÑËÉËÈWÑË×Øë,ä

ìŸÌEÉÁÌ\à¢ÊÌ,ÑÁÌ6àiÉÁÈÑÁÒØÖÀÉËÒéàÖ

c

ÕÌÎÑËÉËÈÑÁ×Øë,äxÖÀÈÌ,ÖËÚ,ÍÌ,×Ó×ØëGÕÍÌ6Þed ÕÖÀÉËÈÞ ÖÀÈÌ,ÖËÚ,ÍÌ,×Ó×ØëGÕÍÌ6Þed ÕÖÀÉËÈÞ

îxÌ,á(Ü×ÓÒØÍß\ÜÈWÑËÒØÚxÞ ÿWûð:f÷qïwê;ÿWû,û:g÷hg ÿWûyðji÷Àÿ9wê;ÿWû6û:i÷hg

Ü×ØÕ֜ÜÑÁÈWÖÁÌÎá\Ü×ØȞÝJÌ,×ÓÕÈWÖ

ñwÍÞxÚ,ß6ÈÍÚ6ÕÖ¦ÝJÌ,ÑËÒéÌÎè×ÓÈÖ kRl ×ÓÚ6ß\ô›ï ×ÓÚ6ßGô„ï

m l ×ÓÚ6ß(ÑÁÈWÌ,×Tížìö ×ÓÚ6ß\ÑËÈÌÎ×oížøCö

n l ×ÓÚ6ßGížìŸö3ÞxÈpoÌEÉËÚ6Ñ ×ÓÚ6ßMížøCö3ÞxÈpoÌEÉËÚ6Ñ

q l ë,ÈWÌ,ÑË×ØëGÑ¢ÌEÉËȞÚ6ÍzÜÑÁÒØÝJÌÎÉËȞèÌ,ÍÏzÞxÈWÜÚÖÀÒÓÉÁÖ ÌÎÍÍyÕÌ,הÚEåœÍzÑ¢ÌEÉÁȞÚÎÙô›ï

r l ë,ÈWÌ,ÑË×ØëGÑ¢ÌEÉËȞÚ,ÙoÉËÊÈ8ÈpsÈWàiÉÁÒÓÝ6È8ëyÒÓÈW×ØÞ ÌÎÍÍyÕÌ,×TÌJÝ,ÈWÑÁÌ,ß,ÈCèÚ,ÍÞzÑ¢ÌEÉÁÈ

Ú6ÍzèÚ,ÍÞ֜ÒÓÍàÒÓÑ¢à}Õ×éÌEÉÁÒÓÚ6Í ÷XtuCá\×ØÌ,ÕxÙlÖÀÑÁÈÍÞxÒÉÁÈ:vw

ñNxxÚ6ß,ÈÍÚ,ÕÖfÝEÌÎÑÁÒØÌ,è×ÓÈÖ

n

kl ÍÚÎÉ;ÒØÍà}×ØÕÞxÈÞ ×ÓÚ6ß\ÒÓá\ÜÚ,ÑËÉ;ÜÑËÒéà}ȞÒØÍÞxÈyx

z l}÷hr){

q

Xl ÍÚÎÉ;ÒØÍà}×ØÕÞxÈÞ r{

q

ÙÛÚ6Ñ8ÿWû6ûg÷qïwê;ÿWû6ûf÷hg}ä

|

ÈÑÁÚ\È×éÖÀÈWåœÊÈÑÁÈ

ìÈ}ÉËÈWÑËá\ÒØÍÒéÖ ÉÁÒØàžÝEÌÎÑÁÒéÌÎè×ØÈWÖ à}Ú,Í֠ɢÌÎÍÉ à}Ú6Í֠ɢÌÎÍÉ

×ÓÒØÍÈWÌ,Ñ$ÉËÑÁÈÍÞ

ÖÀÈÌ,ÖËÚ,ÍÌ,×ÞÕá\á(ÒØÈWÖ ÖÀÈÌ,ÖËÚ,ÍÌ,הÞxÕá\á\ÒÓÈÖ

ížô"uÖ ÉÁÈÜÞxÕá\á?ëR}û6ý:~Eï l ížô"uÖÀÉËÈÜÞxÕá(á?ëR}û6ý:~Eï l

ÒÓá\ÜÕ×éÖËÈ@ÞxÕá\á–ëR6û6ý:~Îþ l 6û6ý:~Eï läMû6þ:~eg l äM6û6ï:~Eï l

ÜÚ֠ɏížô"uÖËÈWÌ6ÖÀÚ6ÍÌÎהÞxÕá(á\ÒØÈWÖ

3v?Dg y~>eZ]_^VVJ6Y VJg> t6V ](YZ VE 0ZjWYµ XZY´VgZkqH§WjWV4YZklš¦6Xtjm ^›VJgZDt6^a—a*^X ef6k_^oY

x£”Ä@ÀÅ<\{x££Å€ÀÅ,€S¤GgZ•J eZgjS,~y ]žj^a—2Ykqšf6XZt6jk_X0VgZOj6kqj€‚ k_jVS^m– ]_]ÁwVJg4

^”~ok_^jYZkqšfWXZt6j›k_X0VJg4Viv?^I†IÃDjWk_6j€h¢V„k_jX^Vm Z]_]lIt6]_ SVJ^>ZjSvMgZ64VJgZ6j4YZklš¦6Xtj

t^a*4m ^a t ZjW ^VJg jWk_6j2jg^Z]_Y f— jWY´^X VJgZ—^OB—tk_ ]@Y VJ ‰^m?VJgZ1!U ]lVJgZ^Z•gƒ

YZ^ojXZ^V4:eZ]_kqtklVJ]q •kq~3VgZDY VJ 0j^t€

p

m#t^ZWj–VgZW> DYZklš¦66XTVv( yoj4V^ :oVJ t6V—

™

VJW]qIjWk_6j„m W^a VJgZ4a—^X”VJgZ]lIjWkqj•kl~6X kqXVJgZ„!UR*j.…醉^X VjWk_tEg”VJ†*q€4^SkqXZjWVJ XZt6

Y VJ m ^S^Xe WVk_t6Z] za*^XTVg0m ^ay tEg

™

VJ6^ X y~6J •^m?VgZa*^XTVgZ]q>~ ]qZja* y

zZjWY$€@br :eZ]_kqtklVJ]qHjWVJ VJMVJgZ V@VJgZ,*jY—VJgZ#XY ^m

™

Z WV@~ ]_Z6j€žˆº6] VY—k_Xm ^Wa VJk_^X

k_jHXZ^V4 y~ kq] Z]q4k_Xƒ€

p

T~okq^Zj]l8gZ64†IÃIYZ VE W aOtEg´ja—^^VgZ›VJg X br‡*ÓjOjWWk_j6€ ˆ‡j

t^XZj

™

XZt6fVgZ„ ];†IÃ4j6k_6j5$ˆŠ‰Œ‹8G ]_jW^YZkqšf6€



Ÿkq•Z› ^VMg



!SkqšfWXZt6j3kqX VJgZ‰j6k_6j36eZ6j6XTVk_XZ• Wy ]z t6Vkq~okqVi WIa—k_XZ^€Ž´jjD‚„W^jj!S^a*6jWVJkqt

8^oYZZt,V+Á‚"!CvMgZWy j!br ZjW ‚„W^jj>Šz VJkq^X ]A8^oYZZt,V+Á‚„ŠR‘,€(Šz^Vk_t# ]_jW^ZGVJg V VJgZ

jkqa*kq] WkqViµ^m›VJgZ t^6je^XZYZkqXZ• j6k_6j‰^m2§WjWV!YZkqšfWXZt6j!k_j>6a d Z]q€ ¤GgZ6² j^a—

Æó$ÊÈ ÞÌÎÉÁ̲ÌÎÍÞ ÞxÈÉÁÌÎÒØ×éÖ3Ú,Í ÉËÊÈWÒÓÑ>ÖËÚ,ÕÑ¢à}ÈÖ3ÌÎÑÁÈIÌJÝEÌÎÒØ×éÌÎè×ØÈ!ÙÛÑÁÚ,á ÉËÊÈÒØÍÉËÈÑÁÍÈÉDÌÎÉDÊ6ÉËÉËÜ<’”“:“EåfÚ,ÉÁÌ,ÍTâåœÒØåœÒ_âÊyÕxê

èÈÑÁ×ÓÒØÍTâÞxÈe“EÚÈWÏ,Ú6ÍÚ,á\È}ÉÁÑËÒØÈe“EÈÍß6ו“ÎÞÌEÉ¢ÌâÊÉËá\×qâ

j6kqj˜–LžŸ‹@™8 „~ok_WV ]q]qDkqYZX”VJkqty ]; muVJ#VJgZ2‚›†I|H€hiX0e VJkqtZ]_ ZVgZO ee 6X”VSYZklš¦6Xtjzk_X

VJgSj j^XZ ]¦e VVJ6XD6m ^WzVgZ„‚›†I| WSXZ^V6v?^WVg”€ p m;t^ZWjVJgZ‡YZkqšfWXZt6j\kqX VJgZ‡eZkqt

j6kqj\ ]_j^›t^XTVkqZVJMVJ^›VJgZ#YZklš¦6Xtj?k_X—VJgZ# ]wa*^X6—j6k_6j˜Xˆ ‰‹€,€8¤GgZz]_^XZ•{¢VJ6a¡$¢™—

XZYIjgZ^VW{ÁVJWa£$¤™—Gk_X”VJ66jWV VJ6jS W

™

ZkqV2jWk_a—k_] \YZjWeZkqV2VJg2YZklš¦6Xtj‡k_X‰VgZ2Y6§XZklVJkq^XZj

^m$VgZz~ Wk ]_j6€žhiX3e WVJkqtZ]_ VgZ‡Viv?^L¢™;jWkqj( ‡ ]_a—^jWV–kqYZX”VJkqty ]ˀžŠ#^VJgZ^xv?6~ZVg V?k_X

VJgk_M t6VJZ ]œ X ]qojkqjGbr ZjWVJgZkqXTVWjWV# VJjWeZ YZ$¢Q‰Z¤(^XZ]q XZY>XZ^VGVgZViv(^—j6e VJ

j6kqj8 jk_X„€U(6ty ZjWGk_XZt6]_ZYk_XZ•#VJgZ?k_X”VJ6jV8J VJ(jWeZ Y4 a—^ZX”VJjVJ^Skqa*e^jkqXZ•# ‡6jWVk_t,VJkq^XO^X

VJgGa*^oYZ]ËWa—^~okqXZ•kqV8jWgZ^Z]qYXZ^V8v?y dX4VJgZMjVE Zkq]_klViHe^eVJk_6jž^mwVJgGjWojWVa!€–nef6tkl§ty ]q]q

VJg3~t,VJ^Wj4^m#XZYZ^•XZ^Zj~ k Z]_6j2ZjWY ”S XZYµbr ¥¦

™

š¨§wˆ©‰Z‹_ªe«8ªj–˜‹_ªj¢.ª9¤M¬h™M XZY

§wˆŠ‰^‹_ª9«­ªj–˜‹_ªe¢®‰¯¤M¬h™}Z6jet,VJkq~]l€

hiX YZYZklVJkq^X‰V^3VJgZO6XZYZ^•XZ^jS~ k Z]_6jfbr ]_j^ ZjOViv?^3~ k_ Z]_6jzvMgZkqtEg0VJgZ,IVy V j

ZXZa—^oYZ]qYµ^4:^•6XZ^Zj6€³¤GgZIkqa*e^VeZkqt!k_X>% VJkq^X´J VZ$–˜‹Nˆ°™—Ok_j4Zj6Y VJ^ t6t^ZX”V—m ^

:tEg XZ•‡ VJG,š¦6t6Vj( XY m ZWVgZ8~ Wk Z]q\k_j8kqXZt]qZYZ6Y—vMgZkqtEg*kqj8a* X”V@VJ^„ty eVJZW‡ ekq^Y4^m

ZXTZjW ]_]l2jW]_^xvµ•^xvGVg^mwVJgZ\a—^XZ,2jVJ^otEd2YZ\VJ^„ ‡]_ •?jZjWVJklVJVk_^XkqX”VJ^SjWgZ^WV{¢Va k_X”V6jWV

y Wk_XZ•› jWj6Vj?X^V–k_XZt6]_ZYZ6Y*kqX*†IÀžh¢V–k_j@YZ6XZ^VY ”±™y$¢+‰¤Op™fk_X—¤Ÿ ]_z XZY—kqV@k_j– t,VJkl~M^XZ]l

YZZWk_XZ•3VgZekq^Y´y££Å€ÀÃM{„x££”Ä@ÀÅ,€›hiX ^VJgZ6Sv(^WYZjœVgZ4k_X”VJ6jV„J VjeZWy Y kqjaOZ]qVk_eZ]qk_6Y

”´ 0YZa*a2 ~ k_ Z]q*vMgZkqtEg´k_j3DYZk_X•0VJgZ3eWk_^oY³x££Å€ËÃS{4x££Ä@ÀÅ<› XZY´¡6^ 6]_j,vMgZW€

noVk_t,VJ]l²jey dokqXZ• VJgZkqjO~ k Z]_DkqjXZYZ^•XZ^Zj*t ZjW‰klV4k_X”~^]l~6j—VgZ>k_X”VJ6jV VJ>jWeZ Y$€

`z^xv?6~œklV‡kqjzt6^X”~6XZk_6XTVV^*Vy VSkqV‡ jz:^•6XZ^ZjSt ZjWkqVzk_jz jjWZa*6Y0VJ^*f2 t6Vkq~ VJ6Y0”

X :^•6XZ^ZjO,~6XTV XZY klV›k_j›k_XZt6]_ZYZ6Y m ^› !]_k_a—kqVYeWk_^oY ^X]q€D¤Gg*m ^]q]_^xvMk_XZ•! XZ ]qojkqj„k_j

jWY ^X Y VJ 3ZeVJ^ x££ÅNÀÅ<M^XZ]q‰VJ^D6XZjZW mÀ k_St6^a*eZ kqj^XIvMklVJg+>*ja*^oYZ]qj€›¤GgZW6m ^W

VJg„~ Wk ]_±™y$¢²‰ƒ¤Op™CvMk_]q]¦XZ^VM„Zj6YIkqX‰br‡*jMjWojWVa k_XD^ZMjZZjW

™

Z6XTV X ]ljWk_j6€

ˆ a* P;W^@YZklš¦6Xt‡kqX—VgZ‡YZa*aH~ k Z]_6j–jY T°2 XY3br k_j@VJgzVJ 2jW6V(^mœj j^X ]

YZZa—a—k_jMkqX>*jSa*^oYZ6];m ^#VgZ2e^jWV{‚›†I|¬J €

p

VJgWvMkqjfVJg2 2 —m ,v¬k_a—eZZ]_jWHYZa*a—k_6j

YZ6XZ^VJ6Y3”„³(´ ´Mµ<´P™¦k_X—f^VJg—a*^oYZ]qj8vMgZk_tEg—VE dzt z^m$jWef6tkq§Ztz,~X”Vj\k_X4VJgZz] VWVJ68e WV?^mfVJgZ

^ZjW~ VJk_^Xef6k_^oY$€C¤GgZ6 jjWZa*\VgZ\~ ]_S\m ^ŸVgZ\ekq^YkqXZYZkqty VY XY* \¡6^„6]_j,vMgZW€

^: a—eZ]q³o£OµM™–k_j4m ^VJgZ4j6t^XY

™

VJ›^mzx££> XY ¡6^!^VgZvMk_j€ ZVJgZ6a—^

VJg2k_jz jgZklmuV‡YZa*aH ¶8£†µÃ†™vMgZk_tEgkqjz¡6W^3f,m ^›VJgZ‚H†I| XZY0^XZHm W^a VJgZ62^XTv( WYZj€

hiXI^VgIjWVZYZkqjzVgZk_j#YZZa—a2>kqjzt6^X§XZ6YIVJ^—VJgZ›]_^XZ•{iWZX!t^kqXTV• VJkq^X!]_ VJkq^XZjM jzYZk_jWtZjWj6Y

k_X4VJgzXZoV(jWt6Vk_^X¦€8¤GgojkqX*t6^XZt6]_ZjWk_^X4VJgZM~ k_ Z]qj8ZjWY3kqX—VgZ#Viv?^2jVJZYk_j( MkqX*eZWk_XZt6k_eZ]q

™

ZjWYIkqXDVJgZViv?^*jVJZYZkqjGvMk_]q]¦„YZk_jWtZjWjY¦€

· EGF H ¸ H¹º¼»£º6H˜ ½°¾ ¿ J. ÀÁ

hiX!f^Vg>jWVJYZk_6jM~t,VJ^#W^Gt6^Wt6Vk_^X>a—^Y]_j

\

ƒ–[G†‰je# „Zj6YI j#Z j6]_k_Xa*^oYZ]qj€ž¤Gg6

W›^mVgZ„•XZ6J ]$m ^a

ÂÃe–¥™_šŽÄ-Å_ÆÇ¥



™œ›NÈ

Â60–¥™œ›N

ȲÉÊÉÊÉÊÈ

ÂNËʖ„¥™œ›MË

ÈÍÌCÎ

™

ÈÍÏÐ

™

ÈSÑ

™Òª ËÃ>ÓlP

vMgZ6+¥™2kqj> ´~t,VJ^>^mHXZY^•X^Zj>~ k Z]_6j

Î

™2kqj> ´~t,VJ^!^mH:^•6XZ^Zj>^DZXa*^oYZ]qY

~ k_ Z]qj

Ð

™ŸkqXZt]qZYZjM ]_]¦Y6VJ6a—k_XZkqjWVk_t‡Va—jM XZY

Ñ

™Ck_j\VJg›6W^\~6t6VJ^MvMgk_tEg!k_jM jWjZa—Y>VJ^

SvMgZkqVXZ^k_jW„ rºŠR?vMkqVgD¡W^4a* X> XZY>XZ^Xjk_X•Z] (t^x~ Wk XZt6a VJk԰Շ

Ñ

™_Ö rºŠ×Ë>ªjÕ,€

¤GgZ`ÂÙØ;a VJkqt6j$Ú-š &ªÛÓÛÓÛӪ܋8?t6^X”VE kqXDjWVJWZt6VZJ ]œt^oB—tkqX”VJjMkqm=Â_ÃMk_jGX^VM eZkq^kf jWjZa—Y>VJ^

2 X!k_YX”VJklViDa VJkÔ# YZXZ^VJY‰”³3k_X>VJgZ„m ^]q]_^xvMk_XZ•,€8hiX‰VgZ„] VWVJ6#t j„v?Hg y~O 4YZt6Y

m ^Wa vMgZk_tEg—v\ j( t6V ]q]qOjY T1€T¤GgZM§jV(Va ^X*VJgzWk_•g”VW{¢g XZY—jkqYZ#^m7ÀÀqÊ8kqj8VJgZzW^

t^6t6Vk_^X®Àƒ–[›VJ6a! Å

Æ¥ 

™œ›N

6eZ6jX”Vj4VgZ°¤!t^kqX”VJ•J Vk_^X ]_ VJkq^XZjH XZY/ĺk_jHVgZ3]q^” YZkqXZ•

a* VJWkh‰vMgZk_tEg YZ6VWa*kqXZjVJg4v?kq•g”VJj„^m–VJgZ4t6^k_X”VJ6•J VJk_^X]_ VJkq^XZjSkqX0VJgZ4

™

Z VJkq^XZj„^m–VJgZ

jWojVJa!€O¤GgZ~t6V^"¥

™œ›N

t^X”VE k_XZjSVgZXZY^•X^Zj~ k_ Z]_6j¥™œ›N‡ XZY e^jjWk_Z]lIYZ,VJ6a—k_XZkqjWVJkqt

VJ6a—jSk_X‰VJgZOt6^k_X”V• VJkqXZ•36] Vk_^Xj€^zk_XZjVE XZt6_¥O™œ›N a* yIt6^X”VE kqX 3t^XjWVE XTV XZY jgkqmuV

YZZa—a2*~ k Z]_€

*ZjWj‡WYZtY0m ^a—jMvMklVJgŒÂ_Ú3³> XZY„;WjWVz^XZ›] •4^m7–„¥™}€MnogZ2YZ^oj#XZ^V#ZjW2ZXa*^oYZ]qY

^?:^•6XZ^Zj\~ Wk Z]qj–j^OVg V

Ì š €@†!^6^~6jgZ‡§ZXZYZj(VgZ6t^kqXTV• VJkq^X W]_ VJkq^XZj€žngZ

W•ZjGVg Vz t6ZjWkq~2 XZ ]qojkqjMjgZ^xvMj#t]_ G6~okqYZXZt6H^m8 6•k_a—tEg XZ•›kqX x£Ã€8¤Gg,m ^

jg‡VJ6jWVJj?m ^\ ›Z d*kqX*Vg V(y \ XZY3Wp;Wt,VJj(Vk_a—zg^a*^•XZ6kqViŒ—Zj6]_k_jy££0,€ p mœt6^ZjW

jtEg *eZ^ot6YZZa* y!fOe^Z]qa* VJkqt„f6ty ZjWOVJgZHVJjVk_jzeZ6t6YZY ”0 Yjt6kqeVJkl~OeZW6VjWV

vMgZkqtEg´a y YZk_jVJ^VHVgZD^Vt^a— ^mGVgZ3^x~6J ]q](eZW^t6YZ€ ^H: a—eZ]_8 0jWVJ Zkq]_kqViVjV4 V

j^a**^VJgZ6He^kqXTVHk_X VJgZ*jJ a—eZ]q*a* y e^oYZZt*6~X jWV^XZ•2,~ok_YZ6XZt m ^2 !•k_a—*jWgZkqmuVH^

Ò;Wt,VJk_^X‰^mVJgZ„VJkqa*g^a*^•XZ6kqVi a y>XZ^V#m ^ZXZY‰kqmCVJgZ›Z dDY V„k_jMXZ^Vz jWjZa—Y!VJ^—f

dTXZ^xvMX‰kqX> Y~ XZt6€–Šz,~6WVJg]_6jj6f•kl~6X!gGVJ6jWVM6jZ]lVJj684eZW^t66YZjGvMkqVJg>jWe VJa—^oYZ]qj(m ^

x£”Ä#{C”S XZY>x£Åz{£Å]qy y~ok_XZ•S^V8VJgZGt6klVJk_t ]Ty #y£Ã€ChiXVJgZ\§WjWV–ekq^YO St^XZjVE X”V@VJ6a!

D]_kqXZy zVJ6XZY XZY jy j^X ]8YZZa—a*kqj WVJgZ4^XZ]lIY6VJ6a—k_XZkqjWVk_t2Va—j› XZYm ZVJgZ6›YZa*aH

~ k_ Z]qj#k_XZt6]_ZYZkqXZ•* *j6t^XYj6VS^m8j j^X ]_jS HZj6Yk_X‰VgZ2a—^oYZ]œm ^#VJgZH] VWVJ#jZef6kq^Y

VJgt^kqXTV• VJkq^X0W] VJk_^XZj€„¤GgTZj;klVSk_j‡Zj6Y V^Dty eVZ4 3jWgZkqmuVSk_X0VJgk_X”VJ6t6eVVJ6a ^m@VJgZ

t^k_X”VJ6•J Vk_^XDW]_ VJkq^XZj€

br ZjWVJgZ^•XZ^Zj2 XZY YZ6Va—k_Xk_jWVk_t2VWa*j•kl~6X kqX¤Ÿ Z]_D— XZY t6^XZjWVZt,VO DjWk_XZ•]q

a—^YZ6]Gm ^*VgZ‰m Z]q]M^Zj6W~ Vk_^X³eWk_^oY vMklVJg t6^k_X”V• VJkqXZ• XZds€ ¤Gg0^XZ]l t^kqXTV• VJkq^X

6] Vk_^XWeZWjWX”VJjG „a—^XZ64Ya* XZY4m ZXZt6Vk_^X* XZY4VJgzjVJe*YZZa—a2¶8£OµÃ†™fk_j8t6^X§XZ6Y VJ^„VJgk_j

6] Vk_^X¦€br‡*jža—^Y]Tk_j zjVJt6VJJ ]om ^a kqXHVJg(j6XZj\Vg V6Â_Ã×ݚ޳w€¤GgZ62 ]_]q^xv m ^;m ^ZC] •j^m

–„¥™œ XY1–˜‹Nˆ°™¦ XZY—eZ] tM „XoaOf6@^m¦¡6W^HWjWVkqt6VJkq^XZj8^X4VJg#t6^:B—tk_6X”V?a* Vk_t6j6€8†‰^W^x~6

VJg6³Y^´XZ^V> t,VJ ]_]q 6X”VJ#$¢ß‰Þ¤Ò™›k_X³YZklš¦66XZt6Ysm ^a f6ty ZjW0VJgZ, Vy V3VJgZkqj*~ Wk Z]q

j›jWVJ VJkq^X 0k_X ]_,~6]_j„vMgZk_tEg YZ^6jHX^V›

™

Zkq—YZkqšfWXZt6k_XZ•€ p mGt6^ZjWCVJgZ—a*^oYZ6]žt^]_Y f

6e a*,VJ6k_¡6Y!VJ^—k_XZt6]_ZYZ`–)—¢Þ‰ƒ¤Ò™ž^#f^VJgŒ–¢A™@ XZY^–„¤™}€\¤GgZH~ Wk ]_—¢²‰/¤Ò™ža* x3f

~ok_,v(6Y j@ X4 YZYZklVJk_^X ]ot^kqXTV• VJkq^XOW] VJk_^XOj^VJgZ VžVJg# W\Viv(^„t6^k_X”VJ6•J VJk_^XO6] Vk_^XZjk_X

‡a—^Y]”vMgZW¢™ XYL¤™X”VžjWe VJ6]q2 jŸkqXL€hiXOVJ6a—jŸ^m8>*jžjW6V8^m~ k Z]_6jbr kqa*e^jW(

m ZVJgZ68jVJWk_t6Vk_^X2^XVJgZMƒ–[²VJWa ”t6^XZjkqYZWk_XZ•„ SjWa ]_]_6t6^k_X”V• VJkqXZ•SJ XZdw€ p ~ ]_]Zbr‡*Ój

a—^YZ6]¦a* y 6•” YY! jM O6jWVk_t,VJ6Y>~Wjk_^X!^m(ÀÀlP,€–†‰^^x~klVGa* x*SVJJ XZjWm ^Wa*6Y3VJ^

4YZt6Y‰m ^Wa”DaOZ]lVJk_e]qok_XZ•HvMkqVJg)Â

›N

Ã

€–ZWVgZWa*^WZY6§XZkqXZ•T¥Oàá

™

šâ§”ˆã‰ ‹_ªe«8ªj–˜‹_ªj¢.ªe¤P¬ä™Á

VJg4br a—^Y]Ÿt X fHvMkqVWVJ6X kqXeZ6tkqj]l‰VgZ6YZZt6Y m ^a~Wjkq^X ^mRËÀlP,€58^x~ok_YZ6YVJgZ

ZXZa—^oYZ]qYH~ Wk ]_‘–˜‹Nˆ°™k_j t,VJ ]q]q„jVE Vk_^X WYZW^eZeZkqXZ•‡klVŸYZ^ojXZ^Vk_X”VJW^YZt? XOkqXZjWVJ Zk_]qkqVi

k_XDVgZHXZt^XYZkqVk_^X ]$eZ^ot6jj6€G`z6XZtwv?›a y3m ^otZj#^X>VJgZ›ZXZt6^XZYZklVJkq^X ]_!„‚" kqXDvMgZk_tEg!VJgZ

j,V#^mŸjVJ^otEg jVJk_t~ Wk Z]qjGZjWY!”Œ— XYIbr „ jWk_t ]_]l—VgZ„jJ a—€

hiX>t^XZt6]_ZjWk_^X¦VJgZa—^oYZ]qj\Zj6Y‰kqX3VJgZSViv?^4jWVZYZk_6j# jWef6tk ]¦ty jjM^m(ËÀqP΀žhi•XZ^k_X•OVJgZ

6jWVk_t,VJkq^XZj‡kqa*e^jWYI”0br jgZ^]_YXZ^V‡6jZ]lVSk_X0 X0ZXZjVE ]_2a—^oYZ]CkqmžVgZO^Wk_•kqX ]œa—^Y]Ck_j

]_]l jWVJ Z]_*m ^HVgZ m Z]q]–^Zj6W~ VJkq^X´ekq^Y¦€ p X²VJgZ ^VJgZ62g XZY$86jWVk_t,VJkqXZ•IVJg0a*^oYZ]qj

m ZVJgZ6za* y>k_XZYZtO YZYZkqVk_^XZ ]$k_XgZ^a—^•XkqViD XZYIkqj#VgZW6m ^W2ZXYZjWk_J Z]_›k_X>VJgZHt^X”V:oVS^m

^ZM X ]qojWk_j€

hiX2VJg?XZoV8j6t6VJkq^X$j^a—?jVE k_]_klViStEgZ6tEdTjžvMk_]_]”–ef6Wm ^Wa*6Y2 jWYO^X26YZZt6YOm ^Wa a*^oYZ]qj

m ^=¥ ¦

™

XZY×¥Oàá

™

V^zkqX”~jVJkq•” VJ8VgZ?kqa*eZ t6Vœ^mVJg?Y VE M^X›VgZ@jWVJ Zk_]qkqVi‡eZ^eVJkqj;^moVJgZ–jWojWVa—j€

hiXInt€(Ä4 Om ZWVgZMjVE Zkq]_klVi3 XZ ]qojkqjG jWY!^X0†In>a—^Y]_j?vMk_]_]ff„We^WVY$€

ˆ eZW]_kqa*kqX › eZeZW^” tEg4VJ^k_X”~jWVk_•” VJ\VJg#e^jWjk_]_\WZeVJG^mVJgZ\VJ Xja—k_jjWk_^Xa—tEgZ XZk_jWa ^m

‚a* X!a*^XZ6VJ WDe^]qk_t63k_X x£Ãt^XZjkqjWVJjz^mžem ^a—k_X•—jVE k_]_klVi VjWVj€\r HgZ x~2em ^a—Y

>J XZ•*^m\jZtEg VjVJj2Z j6Y ^X \ ƒ–[G†‰j2vMklVJg Viv(^‰] •jvMklVJgZ^V2kqa*e^jkqXZ•> >J XZd WjWVkqt6VJkq^X

^6

™

Zkq~ ]qX”VJ]l^X>~6t6V^‡ VJ^W•WjWjkq~ \ ˆ‡…R\a—^YZ6]_jGkqX!]q6~]_jMvMkqVg!VgZ6H]_ •j\m ^A¥ ¦™ XZY

¥OàOá

™

€M¤GgTZj6¦vMkqVgI6jet,VSVJ^—VJgZHYoX a—k_t„jWVZt,VJZW2VJgZHa*^oYZ6]_j# H6~X]_6jjzjVJWk_t6VYIVg X

>*j–a—^oYZ]qj€ŸhiX4^VJg4a—^Y]_j6v?zkqXZt]qZYZ(VgZMXZYZ^•XZ^Zj–~ Wk ]_jŸeZ]_Zj@ ]_]Y6VJ6a—k_XZkqjWVk_t(Va—j

ZjWY kqXOVJgZGViv?^HjVJZYk_j8V^„mÀ tk_]qkqVJ VJ( „t6^a—e kqj^X¦€ŸhiX4^VJg8v(^YZj6kqXf^Vg4a*^oYZ]qjžv(MkqXZt]qZYZ

X²kqX”VJWt6eVy@ IY6VJ6a—k_XZkqjWVk_t4]_kqXZy „VJWXZY¦8jy j^X ](YZZa—a—k_j„m ^›VJgZ—m Z]_]–jJ a—eZ]q*eWk_^oY² j

v?]_]Ÿ jSVJ 3jWy jW^X ]qjzm ^#VJgZOe^jV›‚H†‰| ef6kq^Y$wVJgOk_a—eZZ]qj›YZZa—a2)³£OµP™@ XZY0VgZOjgkqmuV

YZZa—a2׶8£OµÃ†™i€¤GgZ\a—^YZ6]_jŸ ?jWVk_a* VJ6YOk_X2YZt6Y4m ^a¬ jWY^X4 ‡j a—eZ]_–ef6kq^Y3y£”ONÀÃ

{„x££Å€ÀÅ#eZ]qZjSeZWjJ a*eZ]q2~ ]_j‡m ^‡] ••YI~ Wk Z]qj6€„`zXtœv?ZjOVgZk_X”VjWt,VJk_^X^m@VJgZ

^ZjW~ VJk_^X!eWk_^oYZj\m ^aë* XZYIbr VJ^— ]q]_^xv mÀ k_\t6^a*eZ kqj^X$€

^]_]q^vMkqXZ•„Zv?§jVzem ^abC…ºVie„VJjVJjM jWY‰^XDVJgZVJ6jWVzjWVJ VJkqjWVJkqt

Xìí‰ Ã]_^•8Y6VîՃ‰Zì=]_^•–Y6VîÕA6‰¯ì

ž

]_^•8YZ6VîÕ ž ª

vMgZ6SîÕAGk_j\VgZH†Ib t6^~ Wk Xt„a VJkÔ36jWVk_a* VJ^GZ j6YI^XDVJg`ì(§ZjWV#^j~ VJkq^XZjGvMgZWy j

î

Õ ž

k_jO jYµ^X²VgZ>] jV.ì

ž

^j~ VJkq^XZj^m#^Zj a—eZ]_€ ˆzj* Y~^oty VY ”SZjW]_kqZj)y££Î

VJg›j a—eZ]_SgZ jMf6X!jeZ]qkqV\VJ dTk_XZ•4k_X”V^* tt^ZX”V#VgZ›Ã] •j(k_XZt6]_ZYZ6Y>k_XDVJgZ \ ˆS… a—^oYZ]ˀž¤GgTZj

jJ a*eZ]qjžjYV^SVJjV@ SZWy dHk_XOeWk_^oY×ïž \ jY4^X^Zj6W~ VJkq^XZjŸm W^a¥x£”ONÀÃ;V^RïŸ XZYOm ^a

ï È

Å#V^2x££Å€ÀÅ,€;¤GgZW6m ^WVgZ?VgZ6(^j~ VJkq^XZjCf,Viv(6XOVJg–§WjWVž XZY2jWt6^XZYOj a*e]_–ef6k_^oY

]qj^Dg y~V^Dfkq•XZ^WYk_X0VgZe a—6VJ6SjVJkqa V^j‡^X0vMgZk_tEgðîÕ¬k_jS jY¦€2¤ Z]_— • VJgZ6j

6jZ]lVJjœm ^;j6]_6t6VJ6YH~ ]qZjœ^m&ï΀ˆzjCVgZ@XTZaO;^mZWjVJkqt6Vk_^XZjœe] t6Y›^X›VgZ@t^XjWVE XTVt^oB—t6k_X”V

a—^YZ6]Mk_j!yŔQËÄ e J a—6Vj jjW^t6k VYµvMkqVJg

\

ˆ‡…t6^:B*t6k_6XTVj„Ä t^x~ k_ XZt‰e a*,VJ6j

XZYÄ e a—6VJ6j‡ jjW^t6k VYIvMklVJg0YZ,VJ6a—k_XZkqjWVJkqtVJWa*jez XYIVJgZO£”Äñ

™

X”VJkq]_›^m– 1ò ž Ŕ

YZkqjWVJWk_ZVJk_^X‰kqjHʁwe J a*,VJ#t^XZjWVJ XZt6‰k_jzÒ;Wt6VYIm ^z,~^ï# XYI^VJg0a—^oYZ]qj€M`z^xv?6~

VJg„VjV#~ ]qZjGm ^y£Ã4 X^V#e WVk_t6Z] W]q—] •kqX!t6^a—e kqj^X3V^*^VJgZ6My Wj€–hiX!mÀ t6VyVJgZ

x£Ã‡~ ]_Z6j@ \,~6X ja* ]q]_CVJg Xk_Xj^a*G^mwVgZM^VJgZ6ž j6€8`z6XZtoVgZG6~ok_YXZt6Mm ^8 Z d

k_jGX^*•Wy VGkqX y£ÃOVJg X!kqX>^VJgZ6Gy j#YZZkqXZ•OVJgHj€

¤GgZS t6VJZ ]wYZk_jVJkqZVk_^X4^mfVJgZMVJ6jWV\jVE Vk_jVJk_t6j@ZXZYZ6?VJgzjVE Zkq]_klVi jWjZa—eVJkq^X—a y4

™

ZklVJ

YZklš¦6X”V8m W^a ˜ò ž YZkqjWVJWk_ZVJk_^X$gZ^xv?6~oty ZjM^mVgZGja* ]_]ojJ a*eZ]q\jkq¡\m ^y tEg—jZef6kq^Y

ï x£@ÀÅ< x£ÃNÊ x£ÃNÁO y£ÃNÀà y£ÃN Å< x£Å€}P x£”Ä>P x£@P

¥ ¦

™

Ä€Ç Ã”Ä€Å €Ø ÅTÄ€Ø ÃÃ€Ø Ã”€Å Àé Àé

¥

àá

™

£Ã€é €‚ ÅT€‚ €Å ÅZ€Å ÀØÄ O€éÄ £O€é

U

’Z6VXWõÙô

nkqaOZ]_ VJkq^X3…MjWZ]qVjMm ^#noVE k_]_klVi ¤CjVJjzU\ jWY!^X0n a*e]_„nkq¡ì®š Ä

jWjZa—Y‰Z d3e^k_X”V

O  à à ÃÃ Ã”Ä Ã

a* X>^mVjVzjVE Vk_jVJk_t Ôā€éÄ Ã€Óà ÃÃ€Ó Ã€ÓŠÔĀӣ Ԁé Ôā€‚

a—eZkqk_t ]f£”Äñ

™

X”Vk_]_ ÅTÄÄo€Ø ãÀ‚ ÃÀӣ ã€é ԀÓà ぀éÄ ÅTĀÓÃ

br a* X>^mVjVzjVE Vk_jVJk_t Ôā€Øà Ãx€Ø ÃÀӣ Ôo€é ÔĀӣ ԀөÔģ€Ó

a—eZkqk_t ]f£”Äñ

™

X”Vk_]_ ÅTÄŀ؁ Ã£Ã€Ø ÃĀl Ôo€ÓŠÔ€‚ 㣀؁ ÅTĀÅ

XZYVgZ4YZZa—a2I~ Wk Z]qj YZYZY k_XVgZ4] VWVJ‡e WV„^m?VgZ4jJ a—eZ]_€2¤C^‰kqX”~jVJkq•” VJOVgZ§XZklVJ

jJ a*eZ]qze^eVJk_6j(^m¦VJgZ#VJjVJj(v?Sg y~Sef6Wm ^Wa*6Y3 ›ja* ]_]wjkqaOZ]_ VJkq^X4jWVJY€@^@VJgZkqj(eZe^j

v?—gZ x~4Zj6Y VgZ4jVJk_a* VYa—^YZ6]_jz j6Y ^X#>*Ój„ XY br‡*j„Y VJ m ^‡VJgOm Z]_]jJ a—eZ]_2ef6k_^oY

XZY²v?Dg y~DjWk_aO] VY³x8IaOZ]lVJkqeZ]_4VJkqa*—j6k_6j^mM]_6XZ•VgZ졚˜Ä€hiX´^VJg2v?^Yj@v(

g y~*ef6Wm ^Wa*6Y jWk_aO] Vk_^XZjzm ^„a*^oYZ]qjSvMkqVgZ^VH >jWVJWZt6VZJ ]?ZWy dw€3¤GgX v? gZ x~3 eeZ]_kqY

jWVJ Zkq]_kqVi#VJ6jWVjCm ^œYkqšf6X”Vy def^kqX”VJjœt^6je^XZYZkqXZ•#^Z•gZ]qzVJ^MVJgZ^jW@k_X„¤Ÿ Z]_?€C¤GgZ–a* XZj

XZY 6a*eZkqkqty ]Ÿ£”Äñ

™

XTVk_]qj^m@VJg4VjVHjVE Vk_jVJk_t6j„ •kq~6X k_X¤ Z]_4À4[(]_ ]l$VJg* t6VJZ ]

YZkqjWVJWk_ZVJk_^XZj W

™

ZklVJ4YZklš¦6X”V„m ^a˜VJgZ— joa*eV^VJkqtLò ž YZkqjWVk_VJkq^XZj€¤Gg6 W—jWgZkqmuVY VJ^

VJgk_•gTV€ž¤GgZ›£”Äñ

™

X”VJkq]_j(:t6Y‰VgZ„ jWjZa—Y>tWkqVk_ty ]f~ ]_S^m–ʁOYZ a* VJkqty ]q]q€ChiXDmÀ t6V

VJgDjk_a2Z] VY

™

X”Vk_]_6j WDjZZjVE X”Vk ]q]q ] W•2Vg X´VJgDt^WjWef^XZYZk_X• ~ ]qZj2^mzVgZ3VJ6jWV

jWVJ VJkqjWVk_tj#k_X!¤ Z]_2€#`z6XZtfVgZH~ok_VJZ›^mžVgZjWOjWVJ Zkq]_kqVi*VJ6jWVJj‡k_j#YZ^ZVWm Z];k_X‰ja* ]_]œj a*e]_j6€

p

~6J ]q]VJgeZ6jX”V„jVE Zkq]_klVi!VjVJjeZW^~okqYZXZ^D6~okqYZXZt6Om ^ 3ZWy d‰k_X²y£Ã ^‡k_X X”‰^m@VJgZ

^VgZG j6€

r 4g y~* ]_j^>ZjWY 6tZWjkq~*a—6VgZ^oYZj jWY ^X

p

X,{nTVJe [(gZ^xv XZY U( d{p^k_X”VH[(gZ^xv

VJ6jWVjS j#YZjWtWk_Y0kqX^!S^o^Xk_d°, `#XZYW¯x££”fnt€x€Ó(VJ^*k_X”~6jWVJkq•” V›VgZHjVE k_]_klViD^mVJgZ

a—^YZ6]_j6€8Šz^V‡VJgZ V\VJg„[(gZ^xv VjVJjGa* x*St^a—eZVYD”3kqXZt]qZYZkqXZ•2kqa*eZ]_j#YZZa—a2—~ k_ Z]_6j

m ^MVJgZ‚H†I|¬ Sty Zj YZYZkqVk_^XZ ]œYZZa—a*kqjz 2 YZYZ6Y0k_X x££€#`#XZt6¦VjWV‡~ ]_Z6j‡ZX”VJkq]

VJgH6XZY‰^m\x££— „t^a—eZVY‰^XZ]q€@ˆ‡]_jW^Zk_X>^WYZGV^*eZW^YZt„m ^6ty jVJj6wVgZ›a*^oYZ]qj\g y~›VJ^

—6jWVk_a* VJ6Y vMklVJg Y VJ >ek_^SVJ^DVJgZm ^Wt jWV›ekq^Y¦€T!S6•6j„^m–m 6YZ^a WjVJkqt6Vk_^XZj„ ]_]_^xv

ZjGVJ^4jVE VGVJgZ„^XZÎ{ijVJe>VJ6jWVj#kqX x£ÃNÀÃ( XY>VgZ„Z d{ie^k_X”VGVjWVjMk_X x£Ã@Á?^XZ]q€@Ÿk_•„

jg^vMjSVgZOWj]qVJj6€„hiX0VJgZ2§Z•ZHVJgZ2VjV~ ]_Z6jS WOXZ^Wa ]qk_¡6YIkqX0jtEg —v\ yIVg VSVgZ£”ÄOñ

tWkqVk_ty ]~ ]_ZMkqj#€@[(]_ ]lTt^XjWVE XZt6—^mfVJgZ#a*^oYZ6]_j@k_j@XZ^V–Wp;Wt,VJ6Y3”—VgZ‡[(gZ^xv³VJ6jWVJj6t6eV

t]q^j*VJ^0VJg!‚H†I|›€ p m#t^j–VgZk_jH^Vt^a—3a* x DYZZ3VJ^]q^xv ef^xv?4^mGVJg![(gZ^xv VjWVj€

noVk_]_]ËVJgZ2VjVJjYZ^DXZ^VSjeZef^WV„ 3ZWy d!k_X x£Ã€‡hiX VgZOXZoVj6t6VJkq^X0v?OvMk_]_];m ZVJgZ6 X ]lo¡

VJg›jVE k_]_klVi kqjjWZ„k_XDVJgZm  a*,v(^d ^m@†0nDa*^oYZ6]_j€



Ÿkq•Z› ^VMg



ö ¸ J.7÷L"ø ùúH˜ûÛê H æ°ü© ]FÛ û ¸ H¹Ûº

|zjWk_XZ• VJgZ‰6YZZt6Y³m ^a.~jWk_^X ^mËÀqP4 j—^Z*ef^kqX”V ^mSYZe WVJM •XJ ]#m ^Wa ^m„ X

†0nT{ \ ƒ–[G†:kqjGYZ6§ZXZYI j

–¥™_šŽÄ(—ý™$yÅCÜý™$Òƕ¥



™œ›N_È

Â6Üý™$y–„¥™œ›N

ȲÉÊÉÊÉÛÈ

ÂNËÜý™$y–„¥™œ›MË

ÈíÌ

—ý™—

Î ™ ÈÍÏ

Üý™—

Ð ™ ÈSÑ

™Òª ÁÄ&ÓlP

vMkqVg

Ñ

™ÖrºŠ.À>ªÕ—ýۙ—0,€>`#°ý™Gk_jH ‰YZkqjt66VD†I d^x~ eZ^ot6jj2vMklVJg jWVJ VJ6j3ªÛÓÛÓÓªjþ XZY´

—þŽÿAþ'¦VJ XZjWkqVk_^X„a* VJWkh4€C¤GgojkqX„VgZ–•XZ6J ]”m ^WaßÁĀlPfVgZW(ty XH]þ YZkqšfWX”VC•k_a—j

XZY ]q]žVJgZ—t^oB—tkqX”VJj›a* xI~ Wm ^a ^XZ—6•k_a—OVJ^>VJgZ4XZoVy€3hiX ^VJgZ6v(^WYZjCVJgZ—a—^YZ6]

k_jzt^Xjk_YJ Z]q!a—^"%:kqZ]_›VJg X0VgZ2t6^XZjVE X”V„t^oB—t6k_X”V \ ƒ–[G† €$hiXeZ t6Vk_t6¦a—^oYZ]qj#Vg V

]q]_^xv¬m ^SViv(^‰6•k_a—jS^XZ]qS$þ š S 4^muVJ6X t6^XZjWk_YZ6Y¦€ †!^6^~6VJg—jW6V›^m?t^oB—tkqX”VJj

vMgZkqtEgI W„ ]_]q^xv(6Y>V^~ WDa* y3›WjVJkqt6VYDVJ^* jZZjW6Vz^mŸ ]_]VJgZ„t^oB—t6k_X”Vj€–^G: a—eZ]_

^XZ]l VgZ„k_X”VJ6t6eVMVJ6aa* y3~ W ^GVJgZ„t^x~ Wk XZt6^mCVJgZ„6jkqYZ ]œeZW^t6jWjz,VJt€l€

¤GgZ X ]ljWk_j3j ]q]q³ k_a—jD V>6jWVJkqa VJk_X• VJgZ t6^XZYZklVJk_^X ]‡e^ Zk_]qkqVJkqj*^mHVgZYZklš¦6X”V

jWVJ VJ6jS•kl~X‰VJgZO^Zj6W~ VJkq^XZj6€S^#k_XZjVE XZt6‹9™`¤>Üý™-š w¥†ªÓÛÓÛÓªe¥?#a* x!2^m@kqX”VJWjVy€

ˆ‡jWjZa—k_X• Vg VVgZ>t^XZYkqVJkq^X ]?YZk_jVJWk_ZVk_^Xj@•kq~X´VJg!jVE Vj6\ WI‚„ ZjWjk_ X$@kqVkqjy j´VJ^

m ^WaOZ] VJ VgZD]_kqd]qk_gZ^o^oY m ZXZt,VJkq^X$€ †I Pkqa*kq¡y Vk_^X ]_•^klVJgZa—jO XYµkqXm WXZt6>eZ^ot6YZZ6j

y~ k_]_ Z]_„vMgZkqtEg ]qj^> ]q]_^xv VJ^>6jWVJkqa VJ2VgZ6•k_a—OeZW^ Zkq]_klVJk_6jz^m(kqXTVWjWV€OhiX eZJ t6VJkqt$VJgZ

jVJkqa Vk_^X„^mZ S†0n”{

\

ƒ–[G† kqjZ j6YO^XO GViv?^{ijVJe2eZ^ot6YZZ˜ÀjW(2W^]_¡6k_•5x££”ox££0,€CŸkqjWV

¤GgZ6X$¦VJg6 2kqX”VJ^oYZZt6YkqXIVJgZ2a*^oYZ] j`…Ø^•XZ^ZjS~ k_ Z]_6j*wvMgZ^jWOt^oB—tkqX”VJja* y!f

YZklš¦6X”V8kqXYZkqšfWX”V8W•kqa*6j€ŸhiXOVgZGXZV@jVJ6e4VgZGt^6je^XZYZkqXZ•›†0n2a—^Y]kqjŸ6jWVJkqa VJYOvMklVJg

VJgOVJJ YZkqVk_^X ]Ÿƒ–†. ]_•^klVJgZa£ÀjW!Sa—eZjVJ6;b; k_WY,/…MZZkqXSx£”‡ XZY `z a*kq]qV^Xƒ}x££0

ZjWk_XZ•>VJgZ4t6^k_X”VJ6•J VJk_^X]_ VJkq^XZj„ j„•kl~6X ~ Wk Z]qj6€ ¤Gg*eZW^t6YZ—t^XZjWk_jVJj„^m\6jWVk_a* VJkqXZ•

VJgSt^XYZkqVk_^X ]e^ Zk_]qkqVJkqj@” a* Mk_a—k_¡6k_XZ•VgZS]_^•O]_kqd]qk_gZ^o^oY4m XZt6Vk_^X3Z j6Y!^X3t^XYZkqVk_^X ]

XZ^Wa ]_kqVivMklVJgZ^V t,VJ ]_]q jWjZa—k_X•IVJg VOVJgZ*VJDYZk_jVJkqZVk_^X k_j2t6^XZYZklVJkq^X ]q]q ‚„ ZjWjk X$€

hiXZjVJy Y v(!~ok_6v VgZ!jWVk_a* VJkq^Xµ ]_•^klVJgZa5 j YZjWtWk_eVkq~!VJ^o^]\vMgZkqtEg ]_]q^xvMj4VgZ!Y VE VJ^

jWjk_•X2v(6k_•g”VjžVJ^‡VgZ\YZklš¦6X”VŸjWVE VJj@ XZYOVJgZ66T2e VJkqVk_^X„VJg\^ZjWW~ Vk_^X2ef6k_^oYOkqX2YZklš¦6X”V

6•k_a—j6€‡h¢m– W•kqa*›g j‡eZ^Z Zk_]qkqViDt6]_^jW2VJ^ ^XZ2kqX jWef6tkq§ZtOef6kq^Y$kqVzk_j‡ VVJ tEgZ6Y0VJ^ Vg V

ekq^Y¦€¤GgZW” !e WVJklVJkq^XZk_X• ^m?VJgZ4jJ a*eZ]qef6kq^Y k_X YZklš¦66XTV›W•kqa*6jt6^a—a*6XZYZY ”

VJg›YZ VE a* x3f^VE kqXZY$€

hiX ^* X ]qojWk_jv(!t^XZjkqYZ* †‰ d^~ e^otjWj*vMklVJg Viv(^ •k_a—j^XZ]l?f6ty ZjW §XZYZj

VJgZ V3VJg0 IViv?^´6•k_a—j XZY em ^a—j gZ6D X ]qojkqj3ZXZYZ6 VJgk_jD jWjZa—eVk_^X$€ r ]_]_^xv

]q]t6^:B*t6k_6XTVj^m8VJgOjgZ^WVW{ÁVJ6aYoX a—k_tj6¦VJgOk_X”VJ6t6eVSVWa*j XZY0VJgZ2jWk_YZZ ]Ÿt6^~ Wk Xt

a* VJWkhHVJ^„~ WOkqXVJgZMViv(^›6•k_a—j6€žU(6ty j#jZtEgD a—^Y]Zkqjž~„%:k_]_VgZMjVJk_a* Vk_^Xa* y

XZ^VMS~6W>W]_k_ Z]qS XZYDVgZ› X ]ljWk_j\a* y3eZW^YZt„jeZkq^ZjM6jZ]lVJj€8¤Gg,m ^v(„g y~H ]qj^

:eWk_a—X”VJ6Y0vMkqVJgIa*^oYZ]qj#vMgHVJgZOt6^:B—tk_6X”VJjS^m8VgZ2jWgZ^VW{¢VWa YoX a*kqtjS H§&6Y ^~

VJgHm Z]q]Cj a—eZ]_›ef6kq^YI XZY$fgZXZt6¦ HXZ^V ]_]_^xv?Y!VJ^ ~ !vMklVJg!VJgZH•k_a—j€Mr 2ZjWR‹Œš

] •j@k_X*VgZ \ ƒ–[G† €Z`#XZt6ov(‡ ]_]q^v m ^@^XZza*^WM] •„VJg X›vMgZ6 jGbr ZjW‡Ze*VJ^Hm ^Z@] •j6€

†‰^W^x~6;v(4t6^XZjkqYZVgZt^kqX”VJ•J Vk_XZ•D XZd^¤1š ÃDjZ••jWVY T'! XY v?—k_XZt6]_ZYZO ]_]CVJgZ

YZZa—a—k_jGVg V#v(6O ]_j^*k_XZt6]_ZYY!T *kqX‰gZ6‡a—^Y]$m ^MVJgZHj6t^XZYIef6k_^oY$VJgZ V‡kqjwj j^X ]

YZZa—a—k_jœm ^;VJg?m Z]q]”ef6k_^oYH XZYO XO:oVJ zjW6VŸm ^CVgZ(e^jWVž‚›†I|µeWk_^oYHe]_Zj ¶@£OµÃM™t6^X§XZ6YOVJ^

VJgGt^kqXTV• VJkq^XOW] VJk_^XZjž XYL³£OµP™ GkqXZt]qZYZY¦€ŸhiX— YZYZklVJkq^XHv?# ]_jW^Sk_XZt6]_ZY(³o£OµÃ†™vMgZk_tEg

k_j@ZjWYD”—br¬€o¤GgZ‡t6^k_X”VJ6•J VJk_^X—W]_ VJkq^XZj– #jVJkqa VY—k_X* HeZW]qk_a—k_X 2jVJ6e m ^a „a—^YZ6]

vMgZkqtEg²YZ^ojOXZ^VO ]q]_^xv m ^›6•k_a——jWvMkqVtEgZk_X•Z€‰¤Gg36jZ]lVJk_X•‰t6^k_X”VJ6•J VJk_^X 6] Vk_^XjH *VgZX

ZjWY jz YZYZklVJkq^X ]$~ Wk Z]qjMk_X!VJgZ2†0nI X ]qojWk_j€Mh¢mž§&kqXZ•*VgZ26jWVk_a* VJ6jz^mŸVJgZHt^kqXTV• VJkq^X

e a—6VJ6jzk_j‡XM;WZjWVkq§6Y•kq~XIVgZOY VE eZW^eWVk_6j¦€Ó•€qfkqm@ jWeZ]_klV‡kqX²x£Ã*k_jzXZt6jWjJ $VJgk_j

jg^Z]_YDjWgZ^xvBZe>kqX3VJgZjWZZj

™

ZX”VS†0nD X ]ljWk_j6€8hiX!^VJgZ6\v(^WYZjjVJWk_t6Vk_XZ•jW^a—St^oB—tkqX”VJj

òfÚ,á\ÜÕxÉ¢ÌEÉÁÒÓÚ6ÍÖ;ÊÌJÝ6È@èÈÈÍÜÈÑËÙÛÚ,ÑÁá\ÈWÞSåœÒÓÉËʛö$òIíñ!ûâÓÿ6äÙÛÚ6Ñ;ÉËÊȖà}Ú6ÒÓÍÉËÈWß,Ñ¢ÌEÉÁÒÓÚ6ÍSÌ,ÍÌÎ×ØëxÖÀÒéÖ;Ì,Íޜú þxâØÿ–ÌÎÍÞ

ÉËÊÈ@ô›îCõIÜÌ,à¢ÏEÌ,ß,ȏÙÛÚ,Ñ$ÉËÊÈ8ÈWÖÀÉËÒØá\ÌÎÉËÒØÚ,ÍSÚÎÙÉËÊÈ@ôHîêŸñ¦ò¦ôâ

t]qy W]qCt ZjW*VJg*^x~6J ]q]8jVJk_a* Vk_^X ZXZt6VE kqXTVi kqj„YZt6Y²” WjVJkqt6Vk_XZ•DVJg*e J a—6V

jeZ t€@r ‡j‡YZ VE „m ^a x£”†NËÏ{ž£Å€ Å<@e]_Zj–eZ6jJ a—eZ]q#~ ]qZj–m ^?]_ ••6Y—~ Wk ]_j? j–k_X—VJgZ

eZW6~ok_^j#jWt,VJk_^X$€

hiXŸkq•Z6j#Ã* XYIÅ*VgZ›jWVk_a* VJ6YIeZW^ k_]_klVJkqj6‹?X™Ÿ^m@…M•kqa*2 ›eZ]q^VVY>m ^‡ 4XTZaO

^mfYZkqšfWX”V–a*^oYZ6]_j€¤GgZMt^W6je^XZYZkqXZ•He^ Zk_]qkqVJkqj^m$…M•k_a—M o^m¦t6^ZjWP‹

ž

™š¬‰×‹?X™€

hiX²k_•ZW—ÏVgZ*e^ Zk_]qkqVJkqj‡m ^×>*j2YZ VE ‰ —YZek_t6VY$€D¤Gg6 —a—^jWV]q !^4 j^!VJg VO

t]qy H jWj^otk VJk_^X ^mG6•k_a—jvMkqVg Vk_a——eWk_^oYZj›k_j›^VE k_XZ6Y$€D`z^xv?6~– ]q]_^xvMk_X•3VJgZ*Y VE >VJ^

e VJklVJk_^X—VgZSjJ a*eZ]qzeWk_^oY3k_X—Viv(^W•kqa*6j(YZ^oj?XZ^VGWjWZ]qV(k_X3 HjeZ]qkqV?k_X0x£Ã2 j(jZ••jWVY>”

€whiXIt6^X”VJJ jWVy jWY‰^X‰VgZH6jWVk_a* VJ6Y‰eZW^ k_]_klVJkqjj,~ ]CtEg XZ•6jSk_X>W•kqa*› WH^j~6Y

YZZWk_XZ•VgZMjJ a—eZ]_GeWk_^oY$€ŸhiX—e VJkqtZ]_ VgZMjJ a—G6•k_a—Gk_j@ jWjkq•XZY4VJ^›j^a*

™

VJWj?6m ^

XZY muVx£Ã€ˆ‡•” k_XZjV›VgZk_jZ tEdT•^XZY$CjeZ]qkqVVk_XZ•3VgZ4Y VJ >kqX x£Ã> j„k_X+! eZey Wj„V^>f

j^a*,vMg Vz kqVJ W€



Ÿkq•Z„Ã4 ^VMg



hiX Ÿkq•Z!ÅZ\VgZIt6^Wje^XZYk_XZ•²e^ Zk_]qkqVJkqjOm ^*br‡*j3Y VJ WIYZ6eZk_t,VJY¦€ hiX³^WYZ—VJ^

jkqa*e]_kqmuH t^a*e k_jW^X$v?#ZjGVJg#j a—Ga*^oYZ]qj8 jžm ^‘>*j@Y VJ › XZY—VgZW”v?#t6]_ ]l2•kl~# X

Y~ X”VJ •SVJ^4gZ6M X ]lojk_j6€8¤GgZ„a*^oYZ6]fm ^Gbr‡*jMY VJ 4kqj\]_6jjM6jWVk_t,VJkl~SVJgZ X>k_X>br‡*j#^k_•k_X ]

X ]qojkqjk_X VJgZ4j6XZj*:eZ]_ k_XZ6Y kqX nt€3Ã;:t6eV›VJg V›VgZ—] •D^WYZ„kqj›jWa ]_]_6‡VJgZ X kqX br

XZY>VJg›kqa*eZ]_jWSYZZa—a*kqj(³o£”MµÅO™ XYŒ³o£ÃOµÃ†™ W›X^VMk_XZt6]_ZYY!XZ^xv„€



Ÿkq•Zŗ ^VMg



h¢V„VJZWXZjH^V„VJg V„VgZ4e WVkqVk_^XZkqXZ•3 jY ^X br‡*Ój›Y VJ >kqj„j^a—6vMg VHYkqšf6X”V›m W^a˜Vg V

j6XkqX0Ÿkq•ZHÀ#hiX0e VJkqtZ]_ VJg2tEg X•jSkqX‰VgZ2W•kqa*6j‡k_X!VJgZ›§jV‡Viv?^De XZ6]_jz Ha*^

~^] Vk_]_ŸXZ^xv„€ž¤GgZ–jXjkqVkq~okqVi„^mVJg?6jWVJkqa VJY›eZW^ Zkq]_klVJk_6jfV^ztEg XZ•jk_X›tEg t6VkqjWVk_tjC^mVJgZ

a—^YZ6]jZtEg3 j–VgZ#XoaOf6?^m¦~ WokqXZ•Ht6^:B—tk_6X”VJj? XZY*VgZMVJ6XZY tEgZ J t,VJ6k_jVJkqtj–k_j@jZjWVE XTVk ]ˀ

¤GgZkqj2^Vt^a——a y k_XYZk_t VJkl~—^m\VJg*mÀ t,VHVg V2 Ie VJkqVk_^Xk_XZ•DkqX YZklš¦6X”V2•k_a—j›k_j›XZ^V

XZ6tjWjJ D V\ ]_]wt ZjzVJgZzeZ^Z Zk_]qkqVk_j@ ‡6jWVk_a* VJ6Y ZXZY(VgZS jWjZa—eVk_^X—VJg V?VJgZ6

t,VJ ]q]q—Viv(^*6•k_a—j6€8h¢mŸVJg›YZ VE ty X‰„YZjWtkqf6Y!v?]q]œ”! Vk_a—gZ^a—^•6XZ^ZjG]qk_XZ \a—^YZ6]

m ^@VJgZzm Z]_]w^ZjW~ VJk_^X ekq^Y¦o^XZzv?^Z]qY3:et6V(VJgZSeZ WVkqVJkq^XZkqXZ•k_X—Viv(^W•kqa*6j–V^2zmÀ kq]q

WZkqVJ XZY3ZXZjojWVJ6a VJk_tS j\k_X3Ÿk_•#ÅZ€

p

~6J ]q]fVJgS6jZ]lVJj\kqX3Ÿkq•ZzÅOty jWVGYZ^ZVG^X*VJgZ

a—^YZ6]_j\]qy YDV^*jWZZjWVJ X”VJk_ ]œtEg XZ•jMk_XDVJg›W•kqa*jWeZ]_klVy€

ãA¹Ûº º

hiX —t^Ze]_›^m@ VJk_t6]_6jRj]qk_Zj

™

ZjVJkq^XZjzVgZ2jVE k_]_klVi3^mŸVJgZHa*^X6VE WDVJ XZjWa*kqjjkq^X!a*6tEg {

XZkqja k_X3‚„6a* X”*YZkqXZ•2VJg2x£j€žh¢m;g(§XYZk_XZ•2k_j–t^Wt,VG^XZza y

™

ZjVJkq^X3VJgZzZj,m Z]_Xjj

^m? a—^XZ,VE ‰VJ •,VJkqXZ•3jWVJ V•€HnZtEg 3t^Xt]_jk_^X0a yI ]_jW^3g y~kqa*e^VE X”Vzk_a—eZ]_kqty Vk_^XZj

m ^SVgZ*ejWX”VHa*^X6VE W0jVJ VJ6• ^m–VJgZ4XZ,v ƒ–[\U‡€;¤GgZW6m ^W—v?*gZ x~*t6^a—e 6YZj]qk_Zj*

a—^YZ6]_j8 XZY4 X ]lojj8V^„ Sa*^oYZ]YZ6~]_^ef6Y—”4b\cVde^gZ]@,sr ^]qVWjžvMgZk_tEg4jeZef^WVJ6Y— „jVE ]_

VJ XZjWa*kqjjkq^XIa—tEgZ XZk_jWa k_XIVgZ3x£j€zhiXIVJgZ2t^a—e Wk_j^X‰v?Og y~ZjWY XZ•H^m@jWVJ Zkq]_kqVi

VJ6jWVj‡ j\v?]q]; j# YZ6VJ k_]qY‰†I Wd^x~>6•k_a—SjWvMklVJtEgZkqXZ•* X ]ljWk_j6€

hiX t^XZt6]_ZjWk_^X¦œkqV„ eef jSVg VSVgZViv(^>6•k_a—jzm ^ZXZY ”#>  X WVJ,mÀ t6V„^m?gtEgZ^kqt

^m(Y VE ! XZY X ]lojk_j6€3ƒž~6X vMkqVg g›Y VE >j,VOgZ6HeZ WVkqVJkq^XZkqXZ•3^m?VJgZ—jJ a—eZ]q—eWk_^oY kqj„XZ^V

k_a—eJ VJkq~€ p m;t6^ZWjoVJgZkqj\ ]qj^Ha* XZj?Vg V?VJgZz6~6X”VJjGZ]_ a*6Y*m ^–VJgZztEg XZ•Sk_X*•k_a—za* y

XZ^V„gZ x~4g Y VJgZkqa*e^WVJ X”VSkqa*e t6V^XVgZ4a*^X6VE WIVJ Xja—k_jjWk_^XIa*6tEg XZkqja jWjZa—Y ”

ZjW]_kqZj€M`#XZt6gZ‡ •Za*6X”VJjz •” kqXZjWVz *jWZtt6jWjWm Z]a*^X6VE WDVE •,VJk_X•*jVJJ VJ•>^mžVJg×!U

eZey \VJ^—f^X!j^muVM•^XZYZj€

ùúH˜éH˜7H˜AHº

!S6a*eZjVJ6”ˆ2€‚€<, ŠH€Ø† €Tb; k_WY„,Ž!O€ÓU‡€”…MZZkqX^}x£”O,T†I PkqaOZa b;kqd6]_k_g^^oYƒ8jWVk_a* VJkq^X2m ^a

hiXZt6^a—eZ]_,VJ„! VJ ~k_ VJgZ—ƒ–†.ˆ‡]_•^klVJgZa!¶­o®,¼»–­O¿©! #­ª¼»"w¿Á¼¿Ë½_°,¿À½Á¹¼»"$­x¹,½Á©,¿Àª;ã

n6kq„U‡œ6{}Á€

!S^o^Xk_dw-€ÓˆH€6,¡!O€Ó(€;`z6XZYZW y££”Î$# ­¯o©,»u»½uÂ&%('„ªÂ¼*)½Á¹+"wªx°,¿i©,)2°.-$°,½uÂ&%(/M¹10@½)»325476y­®

«D½u¯o­8Ÿ°,bœ^XZYZ^X:98hiX”VJWX Vk_^X ]œ¤GgZ^a—j^X!U(ZjWk_XZ6jj8jWj€

`z a*kq]qV^X$?€Ç!O€7}x££,$ˆzX ]qojWk_j^m?¤Gk_a—4n6k_6j›nZ;W6t6V›VJ^![(g XZ•4k_X …M•kqa*Ÿ¶­®Î¼»?­

·M¹E­¦­) ©,¿À®,½Á¹E°,ÅTÄwã{€

`z XZj6X$(‚4€6,è€Ó…›€ 2„kqa }x££”ÄO,8¤GgZ!noVJ Zkq]_kqVi ^m‡‚Wa X´†‰^XZ,/!Sa* XZY$€ ¤CjWVj4^mMVJgZ

[(^kqX”VJ•J Vk_^X>…M]_ VJkq^X$G«I©,»¿788½u®,¿u°x¹1¼;οÀ»½Á¹1©E°=<‡®J¹1o½>x$xÁ{iÀ

ojkqj¦·?)A@½u®Î½Á¹¼»f·M¹E­¦­)½Á¹E°,Åw{i££€

hijWjk_X•Z

p

€‘,©2€



`›€@¤›c^YVJ6}x££”ÄÎ\‚]qYZa—XZ•>ZXYQ8kqj!k_a%~6k_X”VJ6XQ!SVJjtEg] XZY¦\k_X

!O€!S”v?XZYZ •®À6Y$€Ç,CB›©,©,®E©D·?¿788½Á¹1D»EÂ&%o©, ½uÂs¯o©,®GFz©,»l¯¿H©E­®Î½Á©Io¯B«KJ¼o®LÂ&%°M@­»½u¿À½D

!SZXtEd, `#ZaOZ]q^VyZU(W]_k_X¦Z£”{JÀ

ZjW]qk_Zj6O2€<}x££Îˆ‡XHƒ@a—eZkqk_t ]ˆzX ]ljWk_jœ^moVJg\[(g XZ•k_X•z…M^]qž^mVgZ?‚„6a* X„U(ZXYZjW XZd

muVx£ÃONOPQy­®W¯+RSo»u»_©,¿À½u ­S·M¹E­¦­)½Á¹E°›¼Â¯T"w¿Á¼¿Ë½_°,¿À½Á¹E°,wā£6{}x£€

ZjW]qk_Zj6N2€x££,[(g XZ•kqXZ•—†‰^X6VE WD¤CJ Xja—k_jjWk_^X‰†‰6tEg XZkqja—jGvMkqVJgk_X3VJg„ƒ–|›¦·?)A@½u®,U

½Á¹¼»f·M¹E­¦­)½Á¹E°,ZÃÅTÄÄx{iŔ€

2^]_¡kq•Z`H€{† €=}x££”ÎV#¼®1D”­>WUX"Y88½u¿i¹1o½uÂ&%[Z©E¹,¿i­®=<A¿i­®J©\%®J©E°E°,½Á­°,U(W]_kqX:9@neZWk_XZ•{ \ W] •Z€

2^]_¡kq•Zz`H€{† €`}x££Î›·M¹E­¦­)½Á¹]# ­¯o©,»½uÂ&%s­]#¼®^D”­>WUX"Y88½u¿}¹1o½uÂ&%_Z©E¹,¿i­®`<A¿i­®J©\%®E©E°E°,½Á­°

”°,½uÂ&%+#("?Za<A by­®cNed›w†!k_a—^ p m ^Y!|zXZkl~6jklViŠz&B*6]_Y‰[(^]q]_•€

bGcVJde^gZ]Ëf`›€?,߀wr ^]qVJ6j.x££,wˆ †!^XZ6^!Sa* XZY0noojWVa m ^S‚Wa X0†IÃ;·f)A@½u®Î½Á¹¼»

·M¹E­¦­)½Á¹E°,ÃÔ,{}Á€

ntEgZ X •]Á† €&x££,¤GgZ\noVE k_]_klViS^m‚„6a* X2†‰^XZ,×!S6a XZY:9;Šz^V€;WZjVž ‡†!TVJg$o·f)A@½u®Î½Á¹¼»

·M¹E­¦­)½Á¹E°,ÃÔÄÄx{}Ԁ

r ^]qVWj7€-, `H€bGcVd6ef^g]˜}x££”Î !Skq3‚]qYZX tEgm  •—mÎcO†IÃg9*Š#Z3ƒ@W•XZk_jWj mEcZ›Y j

~6k_XZkq•VJ"!S6VJjWtEgZ] XZY$œ½y­+"w¿7Z¯½Á©,ÂZÅÃÔÄ{}ÄÅZ€

r ^]qVWjC€q–¤€ž¤Cyc jW~ok_VE ',˜`›€8bGcVJde^gZ]"}x££Î?†‰^Y]_kqXZ•IVgZ)!Sa* XZY²m ^—†IÃkqX²VJgZ

|#XZkq§6Y0‚Wa XTV M©,>x½Á©,8 ­S·M¹E­¦­)½Á¹E°›¼Â¯c"w¿Á¼¿À½_°,¿Ë½Á¹E°,wÃ££{¢Å”£€

76 80 85 90 94 13

13,2 13,4 13,6 13,8 14 14,2 14,4 14,6

76 80 85 90 94

-0,04 -0,02 0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12 0,14 0,16

ˆã‰ ‹ –)$ˆß‰ ‹8

76 80 85 90 94

8,7 8,8 8,9 9 9,1 9,2 9,3 9,4 9,5 9,6

76 80 85 90 94

-0,04 -0,02 0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12 0,14 0,16

« –L«

76 80 85 90 94

1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2 2,1

8,2 8,3 8,4 8,5 8,6 8,7 8,8

76 80 85 90 94

-0,1 -0,05 0 0,05 0,1 0,15

Ÿk_•j+97! VJ )Ëbr m ]_]¦]qk_XZ€YZ^VVY!]_kqXZÊ

76 80 85 90 94 -0,04

-0,03 -0,02 -0,01 0 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05

76 80 85 90 94

-0,08 -0,06 -0,04 -0,02 0 0,02 0,04 0,06

¢ –„¢

76 80 85 90 94

0,012 0,014 0,016 0,018 0,02 0,022 0,024 0,026 0,028 0,03

76 80 85 90 94

-0,004 -0,003 -0,002 -0,001 0 0,001 0,002 0,003 0,004

¤ –L¤

76 80 85 90 94

0,015 0,02 0,025 0,03 0,035 0,04 0,045 0,05 0,055

0,005 0,01 0,015 0,02 0,025 0,03 0,035

76 80 85 90 94

-0,008 -0,006 -0,004 -0,002 0 0,002 0,004 0,006 0,008

k_•ZWjTÀt6^X”VJkqXoY€L9C! VE )Ëbr m Z]_]f]_k_X€YZ^VWVJY!]_kqXZÊ

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 0

0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8

LW

J 95% Threshold

Ÿkq•Z@Ë A9 p XZÎ{noVeI[(gZ^xv ¤6jWV

84 85 86 87 88 89 90

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6

LW

J 95% Threshold

k_•ZW„)À€A9–U(Wy d{pC^k_X”Vz[(gZ^xv ¤CjV

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 0

0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

(AR Parameters Fixed)

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

(Without Trend)

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

(With 2 Cointegration Relations)

Ÿkq•ZWjMÃI9@ƒ@jVJkqa VY>6•k_a—O›eZ^ Zkq]_kqVk_6j–m ^Aj]qk_Zj*a*^oYZ6]

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 0

0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

(AR Parameters Fixed)

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

(Without Trend)

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

P(St=1)

MS(2)-VECM(2)

(With 2 Cointegration Relations)

Ÿk_•Z6jGÅ(9@ƒ8jWVk_a* VJ6Y>•k_a—OHe^ Zk_]qkqVJkqj@m ^Mbr‡*jza—^Y]