Identifying Energy Policy Synergies and Interlinkages
through Systems Analysis
IIASA 40 th Anniversary Conference Vienna & Laxenburg, October 2012
David McCollum Research Scholar
Energy (ENE) Program, IIASA
Sustainable development means overcoming several energy challenges
Energy Security
Climate Change Air Pollution
Image sources: NASA, http://www.powernewsnetwork.com/white-house-releases-plan-to-cut-oil-imports-by-13-by-2025/1798/, http://wheresmyamerica.wordpress.com/2007/08/26/i-cant- see-my-america/, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2009/05/14/6142/energy-poverty-101/, http://today.uconn.edu/blog/2010/12/reclaiming-water-a-green-leap- forward/, http://te.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B0%A6%E0%B0%B8%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%A4%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%B0%E0%B0%82:Forest_Osaka_Japan.jpg
Energy Poverty
Water
Land Use & Forests
Energy Security
Climate Change Air Pollution
2ºC warming
Increased diversity;
reduced imports
Air quality guidelines (e.g., PM2.5 35 µg/m
3)
$
Affordability of $
Energy Services
• Short term vs. Long term
• Local/National vs. Global
• Add-on solutions vs. Structural changes
Why the lack of progress?
Image sources: http://shirahime.ch/2010/11/global-vs-local-iiii-%E2%80%93-ethical-fashion-internationally-shows-trade-fairs-brand-and-supplier-directories/,
http://inhabitat.com/san-francisco-announces-2011-launch-of-bike-sharing-program/, http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2009-10/huge-texas-wind-turbines-will-be-made- china, http://www.desmogblog.com/directory/vocabulary/3165, http://wheresmyamerica.wordpress.com/2007/08/26/i-cant-see-my-america/
Need to find new ways to frame these important issues
• Integrated perspective is key
• Enormous synergies exist between the three objectives:
– Climate change mitigation
– Energy security enhancement
– Air pollution and health impact reduction
In c re a s in g s tr in g e n c y
> 4 o C
3 o C 2 o C 1.5 o C
… … … In c re a s in g s tr in g e n c y
Global warming
Business-as-usual Weak effort Moderate effort Stringent effort Energy imports and
diversity
No further improvement Current legislation Air pollution framework
(PM, SO 2 , NO x , BC, … )
Stringent legislation Maximum feasible
reduction
39 levels 4 levels 4 levels
Policies of varying stringency were modeled
>600 unique scenarios spanning the feasible scenario space
(climate-pollution-security futures) Climate
Air Pollution
Security
Energy Security Climate Change
Air Pollution
A large scenario ensemble was generated
Synergies of energy efficiency and
decarbonization accrue in multiple dimensions
1. Co-benefits for air pollution and human health
→ improved air quality (22-32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years globally in 2030)
2. Synergies for improved energy security
→ more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolios
3. Cost savings and spillovers
→ up to $600 billion/yr in reduced pollution control and energy
security expenditures by 2030 (0.1-0.7% of GDP)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
To ta l G lo b a l P o li cy C o st s (2 0 1 0 -2 0 3 0 ) In te g ra te d S o lu ti o n s
Only Climate Change
Only Air Pollution
Only Energy Security
G lo b a l P o li c y C o s ts ( 2 0 1 0 -2 0 3 0 , % o f G D P ) F u ll r a n g e o f s c e n a ri o s
F u ll r a n g e o f s c e n a ri o s F u ll r a n g e o f s c e n a ri o s
An integrated approach saves
>$5 trillion (~0.5% of GDP)
Source: McCollum D., Riahi K., and Krey V., 2011, Nature Climate Change.
Systems analysis provides a lens through which complex interlinkages can be explored
Image sources: http://www.irunoninsulin.com/?attachment_id=1887
