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1 The uncertainty in the local response amplitude can be estimated by the normalized response pattern RMS-error of each model relative to the normalized IPCC ensemble mean response

pattern:

with the T surf response of the individual Models, T i , and that of the IPCC ensemble mean, T

ensemble , and their respective global winter and summer means, and . The

normalized response pattern RMS-error of each model, εi, gives a measure of the relative uncertainty of the local response amplitudes, independent of the global mean response.

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