$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU
HFRV\VWHPVEDVHGILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW
WZR0H[LFDQFDVHVWXGLHV
$OHMDQGUR(VSLQR]D7HQRULR
'LVVHUWDWLRQ]XU(UODQJXQJGHVDNDGHPLVFKHQ*UDGHV
'RNWRUGHU1DWXUZLVVHQVFKDIWHQ'UUHUQDW
YRUJHOHJWDP)DFKEHUHLFK%LRORJLH&KHPLH
GHU8QLYHUVLWlW%UHPHQ
LP0lU]
$GYLVRU\&RPPLWWHH
5HYLHZHU 3URI 'U 0DWWKLDV :ROII /HLEQL]=HQWUXP IU 0DULQH 7URSHQ|NRORJLH *PE+%UHPHQ*HUPDQ\
5HYLHZHU'U,OHDQD(VSHMHO)DFXOWDGGH&LHQFLDV8QLYHUVLGDG$XWyQRPDGH%DMD &DOLIRUQLD(QVHQDGD0p[LFR
([DPLQHU 3URI 'U 8OULFK 6DLQW3DXO /HLEQL]=HQWUXP IU 0DULQH 7URSHQ|NRORJLH *PE+%UHPHQ*HUPDQ\
([DPLQHU'U0DUN7D\ORU$OIUHG:HJHQHU,QVWLWXWHIRU3RODUDQG0DULQH5HVHDUFK %UHPHUKDYHQ*HUPDQ\
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
L
$EVWUDFW
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¶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
LL
VLPXODWLRQVWKHUHVSRQVHVRIERWKHFRV\VWHPVWRPDQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJLHVWKDWDOORZHG WR SURWHFW WRS DQG PLG WURSKLF OHYHO VSHFLHV ZHUH DQDO\]HG 7KH WUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\ DSSURDFK H[SORUHG E\ WKLV WKHVLV DOORZ WR LPSURYH WKH ILVKHUPHQ¶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
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
LLL
=XVDPPHQIDVVXQJ
gNRV\VWHP EDVLHUWHV )LVFKHUHLPDQDJHPHQW (%)0 (FRV\VWHP%DVHG )LVKHULHV 0DQDJHPHQW VWHOOW HLQ UHODWLY QHXHV .RQ]HSW XQG HLQHQ ZLVVHQVFKDIWOLFKHQ 3DUDGLJPHQZHFKVHO GDU 'LHVHU ZXUGH LQWHUQDWLRQDO JHI|UGHUW XP JHVXQGH 0HHUHV|NRV\VWHPH XQG )LVFKHUHLHQ ]X XQWHUVWW]HQ 0HKUHUH :HUN]HXJH ZXUGHQ IU GLH $QDO\VH GHU .RPSOH[LWlW YRQ gNRV\VWHPHQ HQWZLFNHOW XQG HLQH 5HLKH YRQ (FRV\VWHP0RGHOOHQ(0VHUODQJWHEHVRQGHUH$XIPHUNVDPNHLWLP5DKPHQGHU(%)0 6WUDWHJLHQ'HQQRFKZHLO(%)0XQG(0VELVKHUHLQHXQLYHUVHOOH6WUDWHJLHIHKOWJLEWHV +LQGHUQLVVH EHL LKUHU 8PVHW]XQJ LQVEHVRQGHUH LQ GHQ (QWZLFNOXQJVOlQGHUQ 'LHV JLOW DXFK IU GDV /DQG 0H[LNR ZR GDV (%)0 NU]OLFK HLQJHIKUW ZXUGH XP GLH 9HUVFKOHFKWHUXQJ VHLQHU )LVFKEHVWlQGH ]X VWRSSHQ 'D ELVKHU NHLQ HLQ]LJHV (0 LGHQWLIL]LHUWZXUGHZHOFKHVHUIROJUHLFK]XDOOHQ(%)0=LHOHQJHVHOOVFKDIWOLFKH7HLOKDEH gNRV\VWHPHQG\QDPLN UDXP]HLWOLFKHQ 9DULDELOLWlW GDV *OHLFKJHZLFKW ]ZLVFKHQ (UKDOWXQJXQG1XW]XQJGHU5HVVRXUFHQXQGLQWHJULHUWH0DQDJHPHQWEHLWUlJWZLUGLP 5DKPHQ GLHVHU 'LVVHUWDWLRQ HLQ VWUXNWXULHUWHU 3ODQXQJVSUR]HVV YRUJHVFKODJHQ LQ ZHOFKHP GLH 0RGHOOLHUXQJ YRQ gNRV\VWHPHQ HIIHNWLY EHL GHU (QWVFKHLGXQJVILQGXQJ EHLWUDJHQ NDQQ +LHUEHL VROO GLH NRPSOHPHQWlUH 1XW]XQJ YRQ (0V MH QDFK GHP MHZHLOLJHQ VR]LR|NRORJLVFKHQ .RQWH[W YRUDQJHWULHEHQ ZHUGHQ ,Q 0H[LNR ZXUGHQ PLWWHOV HLQHU NRQWH[WXHOOHQ )DNWRUHQDQDO\VH IU GLH (QWZLFNOXQJ GHU )LVFKHUHL XQG 8PZHOWSROLWLN VHFKV KLVWRULVFKH 3KDVHQ LGHQWLIL]LHUW ,Q GLHVHQ 3KDVHQ JLEW HV VHOWHQH ODQJH3HULRGHQGHU6WDELOLWlWXQGKlXILJHNXU]H=HLWHQGHV8PEUXFKV$XIJUXQGGLHVHV VLFK YHUlQGHUQGHQ 9HUKlOWQLVVHV ]ZLVFKHQ NRQWH[WXHOOHQ 6LWXDWLRQHQ ZLUG GHU $XIEDX YRQ .DSD]LWlWHQ YRUDQJHWULHEHQ XP GDV )LVFKHUHLPDQDJHPHQW ]X XQWHUVWW]HQ ,Q HLQHP 9HUVXFK ]XU (QWZLFNOXQJ QHXHU gNRV\VWHP0DQDJHPHQW 0HWKRGHQ XQWHU %HUFNVLFKWLJXQJ GHV PH[LNDQLVFKHQ .RQWH[WHV XQG (%)0 =LHOHQ YHUIROJW GLHVH 'LVVHUWDWLRQ HLQHQ LQWHJULHUHQGHQ WUDQVGLV]LSOLQlUHQ gNRV\VWHPPRGHOOLHUXQJVDQVDW] Ä/RFDO XQG 7UDGLWLRQDO (FRORJLFDO .QRZOHGJH³ Ä3UHVVXUH6WDWH5HVSRQVH³ $Q]HLJHQ Ä/RRS $QDO\VLV³ XQG Ä*HRJUDSKLF ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6\VWHP³ XP gNRV\VWHP/HYHO 0DQDJHPHQW $OWHUQDWLYHQ ]X LGHQWLIL]LHUHQ GLH GLH $XVZLUNXQJHQ YRQ )LVFKHUHL 'LH $QZHQGEDUNHLWGLHVHVWUDQVGLV]LSOLQlUHQ$QVDW]HVZLUGDQKDQGYRQ]ZHLPH[LNDQLVFKHQ )LVFKZLUWVFKDIWVJHELHWH GLVNXWLHUW GHP Ä8SSHU *XOI RI &DOLIRUQLD³ 8*& ZR GDV (%)0 RIIL]LHOO HLQJHIKUW ZXUGH PLW GHP =LHO GHU (UKDOWXQJ HLQHV KRKHQ *UDG GHU ELRORJLVFKHQ 9LHOIDOW LQ GLHVHP %LRVSKlUHQUHVHUYDW XQG GHP Ä+XDYH /DJRRQ
LY
6\VWHP³ +/6 ZHOFKHV NRPXQDO YHUZDOWHW ZLUG XQG ZR ]ZHL HWKQLVFKH *UXSSHQ =DSRWHNHQ XQG +XDYH HV JHVFKDIIW KDEHQ LKUH )LVFKEHVWlQGH PLWWHOV EHVWLPPWHU 7HFKQLNHQ XQG HLQHP WLHIHQ 9HUVWlQGQLV GHV gNRV\VWHP ]X HUKDOWHQ ,Q WKHRUHWLVFKHQ 0RGHOOUHFKQXQJHQ ZLUG GLH 5HDNWLRQ GHU gNRV\VWHPH DXI )LVFKHUHLVWUDWHJLHQ XQWHUVXFKW GLH HV HUODXEHQ $UWHQ YRQ PLWWOHUHQ XQG KRKHQ WURSKLVFKHQ 6WXIHQ ]X VFKW]HQ'HUWUDQVGLV]LSOLQlUH$QVDW]GLHVHU$UEHLWHUODXEW7HLOKDEHGHU)LVFKHUEHL GHU0RGHOOHQWZLFNOXQJGDV9HUVWlQGQLVEHUGLH$XVZLUNXQJHQDXIGDVgNRV\VWHP YRQHUIROJUHLFKHQ0DQDJHPHQW6WUDWHJLHQ]XYHUEHVVHUQGLH5ROOHGHUZLFKWLJVWHQ :HFKVHOZLUNXQJHQ ]XU $XIUHFKWHUKDOWXQJ GHU 'LHQVWOHLVWXQJHQ GHV gNRV\VWHPV ]X YHUVWHKHQVSH]LILVFKH6WUDWHJLHQ]XU%HILVFKXQJGHUMHZHLOLJHQ)LVFKHUHLJHELHWHXQG )DQJVDLVRQ ]X LGHQWLIL]LHUHQ GDV 0RGHOO LQ HLQHP XPZHOWSROLWLVFKHQ 5DKPHQ ]X NRQ]LSLHUHQ XQG 0RGHOOYDULDEOHQ DOV ,QGLNDWRUHQ IU PHQVFKOLFKH $NWLYLWlWHQ XQG QDWUOLFKH 5HVVRXUFHQ ]X DQDO\VLHUHQ XQG ORNDOH XQG WUDGLWLRQHOOH |NRORJLVFKHQ .HQQWQLVVHDOV,QIRUPDWLRQVTXHOOH]XQXW]HQ
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
Y
5HVXPHQ
(OPDQHMRGHSHVTXHUtDVFRQXQHQIRTXHHFRVLVWHPDV03((UHSUHVHQWDXQFRQFHSWR UHODWLYDPHQWH UHFLHQWH \ XQ FDPELR GH SDUDGLJPDV TXH KD VLGR LQWHUQDFLRQDOPHQWH SURPRYLGRSDUDPDQWHQHUVDQRVDORVHFRVLVWHPDVPDULQRV\ODVSHVTXHUtDVTXHHOORV VRVWLHQHQ0~OWLSOHVKHUUDPLHQWDVKDQVLGRGLVHxDGDVSDUDHODQiOLVLVGHODFRPSOHMLGDG GHORVHFRVLVWHPDV\XQGLYHUVRFRQMXQWRGH0RGHORV(FRVLVWpPLFRV0(KDUHFLELGR HVSHFLDODWHQFLyQHQHOFRQWH[WRGHHVWUDWHJLDVGHO03((6LQHPEDUJRGHELGRDTXH 03((\0(QRWLHQHQXQDHVWUDWHJLDXQLYHUVDOKD\REVWiFXORVHQVXLPSOHPHQWDFLyQ SULQFLSDOPHQWH HQ SDtVHV HQ GHVDUUROOR eVWH HV WDPELpQ HO FDVR GH 0p[LFR TXLpQ UHFLHQWHPHQWH DGRSWR 03(( SDUD GHWHQHU HO GHWHULRUR GH VXV UHFXUVRV SHVTXHURV 3RUTXH QLQJ~Q 0( SXHGH FRQWULEXLU VDWLVIDFWRULDPHQWH HQ WRGDV ODV PHWDV GH 03(( SDUWLFLSDFLyQ VRFLDO GLQiPLFD GHO HFRVLVWHPD YDULDELOLGDG HVSDFLRWHPSRUDO EDODQFH HQWUH FRQVHUYDFLyQ \ XVR GH UHFXUVRV \ PDQHMR LQWHJUDO HVWD WHVLV SURSRQH XQ HVTXHPD HVWUXFWXUDGR GH SODQHDFLyQ HQ HO FXDO HO PRGHODGR GH HFRVLVWHPDV SXHGH FRQWULEXLUGHPDQHUDHIHFWLYDHQHOSURFHVRGHWRPDGHGHFLVLRQHV(QHVWHHVTXHPDGH SODQHDFLyQHOXVRFRPSOHPHQWDGRGH0(GHEHVHUSHUVHJXLGRGHDFXHUGRDOFRQWH[WR HVSHFtILFRGHFDGDiUHD3RUORWDQWRDWUDYpVGHXQDQiOLVLVGHIDFWRUHVFRQWH[WXDOHV DSOLFDGRDOFRGHVDUUROORGHODVSROtWLFDVSHVTXHUDV\DPELHQWDOHVHQ0p[LFRVHLVIDVHV KLVWyULFDV IXHURQ LGHQWLILFDGDV HQ ODV FXDOHV KD\ LQIUHFXHQWHV SHULRGRV ODUJRV GH HVWDELOLGDG\IUHFXHQWHVSHULRGRVFRUWRVGHUDGLFDOFDPELRTXHDOWHUQDQHQWUHHVWDEOHV\ DGYHUVDVVLWXDFLRQHV'HELGRDHVWHFDPELDQWHEDODQFHHQWUHVLWXDFLRQHVFRQWH[WXDOHV HQ 0p[LFR OD FRQVWUXFFLyQ GH FDSDFLGDGHV SDUD VRSRUWDU HO PDQHMR SHVTXHUR HVWi VLHQGRDFWXDOL]DGDSHURJUDGXDOPHQWH(QXQLQWHQWRGHGLVHxDUQXHYDVPHWRGRORJtDV GHPDQHMRFRQHQIRTXHHQHFRVLVWHPDVWHQLHQGRHQFXHQWDHOFRQWH[WRPH[LFDQR\ODV PHWDVGHO03((HVWDWHVLVLQWHQWDGHVFULELUXQPpWRGRGHPRGHODMHHFRVLVWpPLFRTXH XVD XQ DFHUFDPLHQWR WUDQVGLVFLSOLQDULR &RQRFLPLHQWR (FROyJLFR 7UDGLFLRQDO \ /RFDO 0DUFR WHyULFR 3UHVLyQ(VWDGR5HVSXHVWD /RRS $QDO\VLV \ 6LVWHPDV GH ,QIRUPDFLyQ *HRJUiILFDSDUDLGHQWLILFDUDOWHUQDWLYDVGHPDQHMRDQLYHOGHHFRVLVWHPDVFDSDFHVGH GLVPLQXLUORVLPSDFWRVSRUODSHVFD/DYLDELOLGDGGHHVWHDFHUFDPLHQWRWUDQVGLVFLSOLQDULR IXH GLVFXWLGD XVDQGR GRV iUHDV SHVTXHUDV PH[LFDQDV HO $OWR *ROIR GH &DOLIRUQLD $*& HO FXiO HV XQ iUHD GH PDQHMR RILFLDO GH LPSOHPHQWDFLyQ GH 03(( GRQGH XQD 5HVHUYD GH OD %LRVIHUD IXH HVWDEOHFLGD FRQ HO REMHWLYR GH SUHVHUYDU HO DOWR JUDGR GH ELRGLYHUVLGDG\UHPHGLDUORVLPSDFWRVSHVTXHURV\HO6LVWHPD/DJXQDU+XDYH+/6
YL
HOFXiOHVXQiUHDGHPDQHMRFRPXQDOGRQGHGRVJUXSRVpWQLFRV=DSRWHFD\+XDYH KDQPDQHMDGRKLVWyULFDPHQWHVXVUHFXUVRVSHVTXHURVXVDQGRWpFQLFDVFRQEDVHHQXQ SURIXQGR HQWHQGLPLHQWR GHO HFRVLVWHPD &RQ VLPXODFLRQHV WHyULFDV GHO PRGHOR ODV UHVSXHVWDVGHDPERVHFRVLVWHPDVDHVWUDWHJLDVGHPDQHMRTXHSURWHJLHUDQHVSHFLHVGH DOWR\PHGLRQLYHOWUyILFRIXHURQDQDOL]DGDV(ODFHUFDPLHQWRWUDQVGLVFLSOLQDULRH[SORUDGR SRUHVWDWHVLVSHUPLWLyPHMRUDUODFRODERUDFLyQGHORVSHVFDGRUHVGXUDQWHHOSURFHVR GH FRQVWUXFFLyQ GHO PRGHOR LQFUHPHQWDU HO HQWHQGLPLHQWR GH ORV HIHFWRV HFRVLVWpPLFRV GH HVWUDWHJLDV GH PDQHMR H[LWRVDV HQWHQGHU OD IXQFLyQ GH ODV LQWHUDFFLRQHV LPSRUWDQWHV HQ PDQWHQHU ORV VHUYLFLRV GHO HFRVLVWHPD LGHQWLILFDU HVWUDWHJLDVHVSHFLILFDVGHPDQHMRVSDUDFDGDSDLVDMHSHVTXHUR\WHPSRUDGDSHVTXHUD HQ SDUWLFXODU FRQFHSWXDOL]DU HO PRGHOR GHQWUR GH XQ PDUFR WHyULFR GH SROtWLFD DPELHQWDODQDOL]DUODVYDULDEOHVGHOPRGHORFRPRLQGLFDGRUHVGHDFWLYLGDGHVKXPDQDV \UHFXUVRVQDWXUDOHV\XVDUHOFRQRFLPLHQWRHFROyJLFRORFDO\WUDGLFLRQDOFRPRIXHQWH GHLQIRUPDFLyQ
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0 YLL
&RQWHQWV
&+$37(5,,1752'8&7,21 ±(FRV\VWHPEDVHGILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW ±(PHUJHQWILVKHULHVUHJLPHQV ±%DFNJURXQGVFRSHDQGUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVRIWKLVWKHVLV««««««««««««« ±0DLQPHWKRGVHPSOR\HG &+$37(5,,,19(67,*$7,9(38%/,&$7,216 ±:KDWPRGHOVXLWVHFRV\VWHP±EDVHGILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW"±$SOHDIRUDVWUXFWXUHG SODQQLQJSURFHVV««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« ±&RQWH[WXDOIDFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJVXVWDLQDEOHILVKHULHVLQ0H[LFR«««««««««««« ±&DSDFLW\EXLOGLQJWRDFKLHYHVXVWDLQDEOHILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWLQ0H[LFR«««««« ±(WKQLFGLYHUVLW\DVDSODQQLQJIDFWRULQDUWLVDQDOILVKHULHV+XDYHVDQG=DSRWHFVIURPWKH ,VWKPXVRI7HKXDQWHSHF2D[DFD0H[LFR«««««««««««««««««««« ± 8VLQJ WUDGLWLRQDO HFRORJLFDO NQRZOHGJH WR LPSURYH ORFDO ILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW WUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\PRGHOLQJRIDFRPSOH[ODJRRQHFRV\VWHPRIVRXWKHUQ0H[LFR«««««« ± (FRV\VWHPEDVHG DQDO\VLV RI D PDULQH SURWHFWHG DUHD ZKHUH ILVKHULHV DQG SURWHFWHG
VSHFLHVFRH[LVW«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« ± $UH HFRV\VWHP PRGHOV DQ LPSURYHPHQW RQ VLQJOHVSHFLHV PRGHOV IRU ILVKHULHV
PDQDJHPHQW"7KHFDVHRI8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLD0H[LFR«««««««««««« &+$37(5,,,*(1(5$/',6&866,21 ±7KHUROHRI(%)0LQPRGHUQILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW«««««««««««««««« ±7KHQHHGIRUDVWUXFWXUHGPRGHOLQJSURFHVV««««««««««««««««««« ±(%)0LQWRWKH0H[LFDQFRQWH[W«««««« ±7UDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\PRGHOLQJLQ0H[LFR«««««««««««««««««««««« 5()(5(1&(6«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« $33(1',;«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««
YLLL
/LVWRI7DEOHV
7DEOH,,&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIHFRV\VWHPVPRGHOV««««««««««««««««««« 7DEOH,,7KHILUVWWKUHHVWDJHVRIDVWUXFWXUHGPRGHOLQJVFKHPH««««««««««« 7DEOH,,&ULWHULDXVHGLQWKHWKHRUHWLFDODQGVSDWLRWHPSRUDOWUHDWPHQWRIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQ 7DEOH ,, /LEUDU\ ZHEVLWHV RI WKH PDLQ 0H[LFDQ XQLYHUVLWLHV DQG UHVHDUFK FHQWHUV RI
QDWXUDODQGVRFLDOVFLHQFHVVSHFLDOL]HGLQPDULQHDQGFRDVWDOVWXGLHV««««««« 7DEOH ,, 'HYHORSPHQW RI DFDGHPLF DQG UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWLRQV GHVWLQHG IRU 0H[LFDQ
ILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWUHVHDUFK«««««««««««««««««««««««« 7DEOH ,, )LVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW UHVHDUFK OLWHUDWXUH LQ 0H[LFR IURP WR
DFFRUGLQJWRWKHPDQDJHPHQWUHVHDUFKVXEMHFW««««««««««««««««« 7DEOH ,, )LVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW UHVHDUFK OLWHUDWXUH LQ 0H[LFR IURP WR
DFFRUGLQJWRGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIPDULQHPDQDJHPHQWDSSURDFKHV«««««««««« 7DEOH ,, 6RPH GHPRJUDSKLF DVSHFWV E\ PXQLFLSDOLWLHV RQ WKH FRDVW RI WKH ,VWKPXV RI
7HKXDQWHSHFLQ2D[DFD««««««««««««««««««««««««««« 7DEOH ,, 7UDGLWLRQDO HFRORJLFDO NQRZOHGJH UHODWHG WR D ELRORJLFDO DQG E ILVKLQJ
LQGLFDWRUVVHOHFWHGIRUWKH+XDYH/DJRRQ6\VWHP«««««««««««««««« 7DEOH,,0RGHOSUHGLFWLRQVFRQVLGHULQJDUHGXFWLRQRIFDUQLYRUHE\FDWFKLQJLOOQHWV«« 7DEOH,,D%LRORJLFDOLQGLFDWRUVDQGEILVKLQJLQGLFDWRUVVHOHFWHGIRUWKH8SSHU*XOIRI &DOLIRUQLDDQGWKH&RORUDGR5LYHU'HOWD%LRVSKHUH5HVHUYH0H[LFR«««««««« 7DEOH,,0RGHOSUHGLFWLRQVFRQVLGHULQJDSRVLWLYHGLVWXUEDQFHRQSURWHFWHGVSHFLHV«« 7DEOH,,3UHGLFWLRQVIURPPRGHOVWKDWVKRZHGDGLIIHUHQWUHVSRQVHZLWKLQVHDVFDSH& PRGHODQG'PRGHOVWKURXJK««««««««««««««««««« 7DEOH ,, *HQHUDO JRDOV RI HFRV\VWHPEDVHG ILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW (%)0 GLUHFWO\
LQYROYHGZLWKHFRV\VWHPPRGHOLQJ«««««««««««««««««««««« 7DEOH,,(FRV\VWHPVPRGHOVLQWKH8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLDDFFRUGLQJWRWKH DUUDQJHPHQWVXJJHVWHGE\3ODJiQ\L««««««««««««««««««
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0 L[
/LVWRI)LJXUHV
)LJXUH,'LVWULEXWLRQRIGHYHORSLQJILVKHULHVFRXQWULHVZLWKFDSWXUHSURGXFWLRQRIW )LJXUH,6WXG\DUHDV8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLD8*&DQG+XDYH/DJRRQ6\VWHP«««« )LJXUH,0HWKRGRORJ\IOX[GLDJUDPZLWKIRXUVWDJHV««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,0RGHOFRPSOH[LW\VSHFWUXP««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDOYLHZRIIRXUWKFDWHJRULHVRIHFRORJLFDOPRGHOVLQWKHFRQWH[W RIILYHJRDOVRIHFRV\VWHPEDVHGILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,6FKHPDWLFRYHUYLHZRIDVWUXFWXUHGSODQQLQJSURFHVV««««««««««« )LJXUH ,, 6FKHPDWLFYLHZ RI WKH 0H[LFDQ ILVKHULHV UHJLPH HYROXWLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR LWVILVKHU\DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLFLHVFRGHYHORSPHQW««««««««««««««« )LJXUH ,, +LVWRULFDO FKDQJHV LQ WKH 0H[LFDQ OLWHUDWXUH WKHVHV DQG SDSHUV FRQFHUQLQJ
ILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQWUHVHDUFK«««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,6SDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQLQ0H[LFRRILQVWLWXWLRQVGHVWLQHGIRUILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW UHVHDUFK«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,&RDVWDOUHJLRQRIWKH,VWKPXVRI7HKXDQWHSHFLQ2D[DFD0H[LFR«««««« )LJXUH ,, *HRJUDSKLF GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH DQQXDO FDWFK RI VKULPS LQ WKH FRDVWDO +XDYH
/DJRRQ6\VWHP««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,D0RGHOVLJQHGGLJUDSKE&RPPXQLW\PDWUL[DQGF3UHGLFWLRQPDWUL[IRUD VLPSOHV\VWHPRIWKUHHYDULDEOHV««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,D&RUHPRGHOVLJQHGGLJUDSKE&RPPXQLW\PDWUL[DQGF3UHGLFWLRQPDWUL[ IRUWKH+XDYH/DJRRQ6\VWHP«««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH ,, +XDYH /DJRRQ 6\VWHP UHJLRQDOL]DWLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR VSDFH YDULDWLRQV RI
ILVKHULHVUHVRXUFHV««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,$OWHUQDWLYHPRGHOVJHQHUDWHGIRUWKH+XDYH/DJRRQ6\VWHPDOOPRGHOV«« )LJXUH,,)ORZGLDJUDPVKRZLQJWKHDVVHPEO\RIWKHDQDO\VLVWRROV««««««««« )LJXUH,,D&RUHPRGHOVLJQHGGLJUDSKE&RPPXQLW\PDWUL[DQGF3UHGLFWLRQPDWUL[ IRUWKH8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLDDQGWKH&RORUDGR5LYHU'HOWD%LRVSKHUH5HVHUYH«« )LJXUH ,, 8SSHU *XOI RI &DOLIRUQLD DQG WKH &RORUDGR 5LYHU 'HOWD %LRVSKHUH 5HVHUYH
UHJLRQDOL]DWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRVSDFHYDULDWLRQVRIELRORJLFDOUHVRXUFHV«««««««« )LJXUH,,$OWHUQDWLYHPRGHOVJHQHUDWHGIRUWKH8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLDDQGWKH&RORUDGR 5LYHU'HOWD%LRVSKHUH5HVHUYHPRGHOVDQG«««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,$OWHUQDWLYHPRGHOVJHQHUDWHGIRUWKH8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLDDQGWKH&5'%5 DOOPRGHOV«««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««« )LJXUH,,8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLDUHJLRQDOL]DWLRQ««««««««««««««««««
[
/LVWRI$SSHQGL[HV
$,±&RQWULEXWLRQVWRWKHSURMHFWVDQGPDQXVFULSWV«««««««««««««««« $,,±2WKHULQYHVWLJDWLYHSXEOLFDWLRQVIURPWKHDXWKRU ,QYHVWLJDFLyQVREUHHOPDQHMRKROtVWLFRGHODSHVFDHQ0p[LFR3ULRULGDGHV JXEHUQDPHQWDOHVGHOV;;,«««««««««««««««««««««««««« ±1HFHVLGDGFRQRFLPLHQWR\FUHDWLYLGDGODSHVFDFRQSDSDORWHHQ6DQWD0DUtDGHO0DU« ±'LOHPDKXDYH¢'XQDV\HQHUJtDHyOLFD" ±/RVKXDYHVFXOWXUDGHDUHQD«««««««««««««««««««««««««« ±8QPRGHORFXDOLWDWLYRSDUDHOPDQHMRGHODVSHVTXHUtDVEDVDGRHQHOHQWHQGLPLHQWRGHO HFRVLVWHPDFDVRGHHVWXGLRGHOQRUWHGHO*ROIRGH&DOLIRUQLD0p[LFR««««««««$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0 [L
/LVWRI&ROODERUDWRUV
/HLEQL]=HQWUXPIU0DULQH7URSHQ|NRORJLH*PE+ )DKUHQKHLWVWU %UHPHQ*HUPDQ\ 3URI'U0DWWKLDV:ROII PDWWKLDVZROII#]PWEUHPHQGH 'U8ZH.UXPPH XZHNUXPPH#]PWEUHPHQGH 8QLYHUVLGDG$XWyQRPDGH%DMD&DOLIRUQLD &DUUHWHUD7LMXDQD(QVHQDGDNP (QVHQDGD0H[LFR 'U,OHDQD(VSHMHO LOHDQDHVSHMHO#XDEFHGXP[ 'U*DEULHOD0RQWDxR0RFWH]XPD JPRQWDQR#XDEFHGXP[ 8QLYHUVLGDGGHO0DU &DUUHWHUDD=LSROLWHNP 3WRÈQJHO0H[LFR 06F-6D~O6HUUDQR*X]PiQ VVHUUDQR#DQJHOXPDUP[ 06F3HGUR&HUYDQWHV+HUQiQGH] SFK#DQJHOXPDUP[ 06F-RVpÈQJHO5RQVyQ3DXOtQ MRVHDQJHOURQVRQ#XVFHV 06F&XLWOiKXDF+HUQiQGH] FKV#DQJHOXPDUP[ 06F5DJL$*XHUUD UDJL#DQJHOXPDUP[ 2F0LJXHOÈQJHO$KXPDGD DKXPDGD#DQJHOXPDUP[ 'U(GJDU5REOHV=DYDOD HUREOHV#DQJHOXPDUP[ %LRO6HOHQH&DVWLOOR UDQDSDUGD#KRWPDLOFRP 06F0,VDEHO*DOODUGR%HUXPHQ L]]\#\DKRRFRPP[ 06F*DEULHOD*RQ]iOH] ELROPDU#DQJHOXPDUP[ 06F(GXDUGR+HUUHUD 06F1RUPD%DUULHQWRV EOXMDQD#KRWPDLOFRP 06F6DPXHO5DPRV 'LDQD6iQFKH] VDJDGLB#KRWPDLOFRP )HUQDQGR&RUWpV EHUVHUNHUO#KRWPDLOFRP $QJHO0DULR9DOGH] DPYI#KRWPDLOFRP &,&,0$5 $Y,QVWLWXWR3ROLWpFQLFR1DFLRQDOVQ /D3D]0H[LFR 06F-RVp$OEHUWR=HSHGD'RPtQJXH] MRDO]HGR#KRWPDLOFRP &,,(0$',13 &DOOHGH-XQLRGHVQ ')0H[LFR 'UD*UDFLHOD$OFDOi JUD#KRWPDLOFRP[LL ,QVWLWXWR1DFLRQDOGH3HVFD6$*$53$ 3LWDJRUDV ')0H[LFR 06F3DWULFLD)XHQWHV SIPDWD#\DKRRFRP &HQWUR5HJLRQDOGH,QYHVWLJDFLyQ3HVTXHUD 3URORQJDFLyQ3OD\D$ELHUWD 6DOLQD&UX]2D[DFD %LRO2VZDOGR0RUDOHV RVZDOGRPRUDOHV#LQDSHVFDVDJDUSDJREP[ 'LUHFFLyQGH3HVFD\$FXDFXOWXUD(VWDGRGH 2D[DFD 6DOLQD&UX]2D[DFD ,QJ$QWRQLR6DOD]DU %LRO0LJXHO$QJHO%DOGHQHJUR (320(;8$&$0 &DPSHFKH0H[LFR 'U*XLOOHUPR9LOODORERV JMYLOODO#PDLOXDFDPP[ 'U(YHOLD5LYHUD JW]UYD#SURGLJ\QHWP[ ,76$/ 6DOLQD&UX] ,QJ$PRV5H\HV*LUyQ N\GDJDVKD#JPDLOFRP &,,',5,312D[DFD +RUQRV1R 6DQWD&UX];R[RFRWODQ2D[DFD0p[LFR 06F$QD%*X]PiQ&DVWHOODQRV DQL[FDV#JPDLOFRP
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0 [LLL
/LVWRI$EEUHYLDWLRQV
$EEUHYLDWLRQ 'HVFULSWLRQ &% &DSDFLW\%XLOGLQJ &%& &DUQLYRUH%\&DWFK &&5) &RGHRI&RQGXFWIRU5HVSRQVLEOH)LVKHULHV &) &DUQLYRUH)LVKHV &)$ &RQWH[WXDO)DFWRUV$QDO\VLV &,7(6 &RQYHQWLRQRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHLQ(QGDQJHUHG6SHFLHV &35 &RPPRQ3RRO5HVRXUFHV &38( &DWFKSHU8QLW(IIRUW &21$&\7 &RQVHMR1DFLRQDOGH&LHQFLD\7HFQRORJtD &21$3(6&$ &RPLVLyQ1DFLRQDOGH$FXDFXOWXUD\3HVFD &U &UXVWDFHDQV ($) (FRV\VWHP$SSURDFKWR)LVKHULHV ($3 (FRQRPLFDOO\$FWLYH3RSXODWLRQ (%0 (FRV\VWHP%DVHG0DQDJHPHQW (%)0 (FRV\VWHP%DVHG)LVKHULHV0DQDJHPHQW ((= ([FOXVLYH(FRQRPLF=RQH (* (QFLUFOLQJ*LOOQHW (O (ODVPREUDQFKV (Z( (FRSDWKZLWK(FRVLP (162 (O1Lx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
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
[Y
3UHIDFH
7KLV GRFWRUDO WKHVLV ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 'HXWVFKHU $NDGHPLVFKHU $XVWDXVFKGLHQVW '$$' XQGHU D 3K'¶V VFKRODUVKLS WR $(7 7KH ILHOG ZRUN ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WZR UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV IXQGHG E\ 7KH ,QWHU$PHULFDQ %LRGLYHUVLW\ ,QIRUPDWLRQ 1HWZRUN ³5HJLRQDOL]DFLyQ HFRVLVWpPLFD FRQ EDVH HQ LQGLFDGRUHV DPELHQWDOHV GH WUHV iUHDV PDULQDVHQHOVXUGH0p[LFR´DQG7KH5XIIRUG6PDOO*UDQWV)RXQGDWLRQ³$SURSRVDOIRU WKHVSDWLDOSODQQLQJRIWZRWUDGLWLRQDOILVKHULHVLQFRPSHWLWLRQ+XDYHVDQG=DSRWHFV´ 3XQFWXDO RXWSXWV ZHUH DOVR VXSSRUWHG E\ SDUDOOHO 0H[LFDQ UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV VXFK DV 6$*$53$'*$'*$'$0$'DQG5HGGH0DQHMR&RVWHUR3520(3
,ZLVKWRWKDQNPDQ\SHRSOHZLWKZKRP,KDYHVKDUHGWKHZRUN
7RP\GRFWRUDOWXWRU0DWWKLDV:ROIIIRUKLVFRQVWDQWVXSSRUWWKURXJKRXWWKHWKHVLV7R P\ GRFWRUDO WXWRU LQ 0H[LFR ,OHDQD (VSHMHO IRU KHU XQFRQGLWLRQDO VXSSRUW GXULQJ WKLV DFDGHPLFDGYHQWXUH7R8ZH.UXPPHUIRUKLVORFDOVXSSRUW7R6D~O6HUUDQR*UDFLHOD $OFDOi (YHOLD 5LYHUD -RVH $ =HSHGD'RPLQJXH] 3HGUR &HUYDQWHV+HUQDQGH] &XLWODKXDF +HUQiQGH] DQG $PRV 5H\HV P\ 0H[LFDQ FROOHJHV ZKR EHOLHYHG LQ WKH SURMHFW DQG DOZD\V EURXJKW D FRQVWUXFWLYH DWWLWXGH WR RXU ZRUN ,Q WKH =07 , WKDQN 0LOHQD$ULDV6FKUHLEHU.DWKOHHQ6FKZHUGWQHU-RUJH3DUDPRDQG6HEDVWLDQ)HUVHIRU DOOVXJJHVWLRQVDQGKHOSIXOFRPPHQWV7KHODQJXDJHFRUUHFWLRQVRI5RVDQD+HUUHURDUH DOVRJUHDWO\DSSUHFLDWHG ,WKDQNWKH+XDYHVDQG=DSRWHFFRPPXQLWLHVDURXQG/DJXQD6XSHULRUDQG,QIHULRUIRU JLYLQJXVWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRZRUNZLWKWKHPDQGWRVKDUHWKHLUYDVWNQRZOHGJH0\WKDQNV JRWRWKH&RRSHUDWLYHV6&33³)XHU]DGHO3XHEOR´6GH5/GH&96&33³5H\ GHODV2ODV´6GH5/GH&96&33³3OD\D&RSDOLWR´6GH5/GH&9³3HVFDGRUHV GHOD%DKtDGH+XDPXFKLO´6GH5/GH&96&33³0L*URS<NRRMV´6GH5/GH &9 6&33 ³-DOWHSHF GH OD 0DU´ 6 GH 5/ GH &9 6&33 ³0DUHxRV GH OD 5HJLyQ +XDYH´ 6 GH 5/ GH &9 6&33 ³&KH &DWD´ 6 GH 5/ GH &9 6&33 ³/D 6DQWD 6HxRUDGH6DQ)UDQFtVFR´6GH5/GH&9DQG.H\LQIRUPDQWVDOSKDEHWLFRUGHU $QWRQLR 3DODIR[ $UPDQGR *~]PDQ %HUWD 5DPtUH] &DWDOLQR -LPpQH] -RVp &RELWR *DUFtD(VWHEDQ5HJDODGR-LPpQH](PLJGLR-XDQ&DVWLOOR*HUyQLPR0DUWtQH]%DUWROR ,VUDHO/ySH]-DYLHU0DUWtQH]-RHO9D]TXH]%HQtWH]-RVp+HGHU*DUFtD-XDQ&HSHGD 9LFWRULR 0DWHR /ySH] 9LOODORERV 5D~O 5RMDV 'tD] 5RGROIR 3HGUR 0DUWtQH] 7RPiV
[YL
5Xt]7RULELR-LPpQH]'LVLGHUR,DPHVSHFLDOO\JUDWHIXOWR,VUDHO/RSH]DQGKLVIDPLO\IRU KDYLQJLQWURGXFHGLQWRKXDYHOLIH
=X PHLQHU QHXHQ GHXWVFKHQ )DPLOLH $QQD &LW &ODXGLD (XVH (UNLQ )DELDQ )ULGH *HUPDQ,VD-RQD-RUJH/LEH0DUF0DULVD0LOH2OJD2WWR3DFR5XEH7KRPDV XVZ$PLIDPLOLD\6HOHQHVLQFX\RDSR\RPRUDOHVWHWUDEDMRQXQFDSRGUtDKDEHUVLGR SRVLEOH $ $GUt FX\R KHUPRVR UHFXHUGR VLHPSUH PH KD KHFKR SRVLEOH HQIUHQWDU FXDOTXLHUUHWRJUDFLDVKHUPDQD
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
&KDSWHU,,QWURGXFWLRQ
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³PRGHUQ´WR ³SRVWPRGHUQ´VFLHQFH)XQWRZLF]DQG5DYHWV'HDOLQJZLWKKLJKOHYHOVRI XQFHUWDLQW\GLVSXWHGYDOXHVKLJKVWDNHVDQGXUJHQWGHFLVLRQVHQYLURQPHQWDOVFLHQFHV DUHVXIIHULQJIURPWKHVHSDUDGLJPVKLIWVLQDQDWWHPSWWRDGGUHVVWKHXQLQWHQGHGKDUPIXO HIIHFWVRISURJUHVVVXFKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOORVVRIQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHV,NHUG)OLWQHUHW DO 0XPE\ DQG 6WHQHFN /HUW]PDQ ,Q EURDG WHUPV WKH FXUUHQW VFLHQWLILF FRQFHSW RI VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW LV DQ DWWHPSW WR FRPELQH JURZLQJ FRQFHUQVDERXWDUDQJHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHVZLWKVRFLRHFRQRPLFLVVXHV+RSZRRG HWDO
(FRV\VWHPEDVHGILVKHULHVPDQDJHPHQW
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tD HW DO KDYH EHHQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ SURSRVHG DQG DGRSWHG DV D PRUH
VXVWDLQDEOH DQG KROLVWLF ZD\ IRU PDQDJLQJ ZRUOG ILVKHULHV 5HYHUVLQJ WKH RUGHU RI PDQDJHPHQW SULRULWLHV E\ VWDUWLQJ ZLWK WKH HFRV\VWHP UDWKHU WKDQ WKH WDUJHW VSHFLHV (%)0UHSUHVHQWVDQLQWHJUDWHGIUDPHZRUNWKDWLPSOLHVDIXQGDPHQWDOXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI UHFLSURFDODQGFRPSOH[LQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQKXPDQVDQGPDULQHUHVRXUFHV3LNLWFKHW DO
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
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
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
(PHUJHQWILVKHULHVUHJLPHQVDQGWKHLUSDUWLFXODU
FRQIOLFWV
,PSOHPHQWLQJ(%)0DQG(0VLVDSDUWLFXODUFKDOOHQJHLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV2QRQH KDQG GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DUH DPRQJ WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW ILVK SURGXFHUV LQ WKH ZRUOG )LJ , D WRWDO RI RI WKH WRS ILVKLQJ FRXQWULHV DQQXDO FDSWXUH ILVKHULHV ! 70 DQG RI WKH WRS DQQXDO FDSWXUH ILVKHULHV ! 70 DUH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV )$2 DQG LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK OHVV ILVKHULHVSURGXFWLYH QDWLRQVWKH\KDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRPRUHWKDQWZRWKLUGVRIILVKSURGXFWLRQGXULQJWKHODVW GHFDGH $UQDVRQ HW DO +RZHYHU PRVW RI WKHVH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV¶ PDVVLYH ILVKHULHV VWDUWHG GXULQJ WKH V RU V LQFOXGLQJ &KLQD 3HUX ,QGRQHVLD &KLOH ,QGLDDQG0H[LFRRUHYHQPRUHUHFHQWO\GXULQJWKHODVWIHZGHFDGHVLQ$VLDVXFKDV WKH 3KLOLSSLQHV 0\DQPDU DQG %DQJODGHVK 9LHWQDP KDV IRU H[DPSOH LQFUHDVHG LWV PDULQHFDWFKLQWKHODVW\HDUV%RRQVWUDDQG'DQJ
)LVKHULHVLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQSDUWLFXODUKDYHIDFHGDGYHUVHFLUFXPVWDQFHV:LWK PRVWFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWLQWKHIRUPRIIRUHLJQORDQVWKHVHHPHUJHQWLQGXVWULDOILVKHULHV UHJLPHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGLWLRQHG VLQFH WKHLU HVWDEOLVKPHQW WR EH LPLWDWLRQV RI RU LQKHULWDQFHV IURP WKH PDQDJHPHQW SROLFLHV RI GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV HJ FRPPDQG FRQWURO PHDVXUHV DQG VLQJOHVSHFLHV PDQDJHPHQW ZKLFK LQ WXUQ GHVSLWH WKHLU HQRUPRXVWKHRUHWLFDOEDFNJURXQGKDYHPRUHIUHTXHQWO\IDLOHGWKDQVXFFHHGHG1DXHQ
1LHOVHQ DQG +ROP ,Q DGGLWLRQ ZKLOH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV KDYH GLIIHUHQW NLQGV RI SUREOHPV VRFLHWLHV DQGJRDOV DOO RIWKHP DUH FRQFHUQHG ZLWKWKHLUUHFXUUHQW DGYHUVH HFRQRPLF FRQGLWLRQV DQG WKH GLOHPPD EHWZHHQ IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH DQG IRRG VXSSO\ DQG HPSOR\PHQW SURYLVLRQ 7KRUSH HW DO 7KXV WKH REVHUYHG UDSLG LQFUHDVH DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI FRQWUDVWLQJ ILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW SROLFLHV DUH XVXDOO\ EDVHG RQ HSKHPHUDO SROLWLFDO DQG PRUDO GHFLVLRQV UDWKHU WKHQWHFKQLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF FKRLFHV+DQLFKDQG7VDPHQ\L
)LJ , 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI GHYHORSLQJ ILVKHULHV FRXQWULHV ZLWK FDSWXUH SURGXFWLRQ RI 70 RU PRUHLQ6RXUFH)$2
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
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
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aVPDOOVFDOHUHJLVWHUHGERDWV2(&'
%DFNJURXQGVFRSHDQGUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVRIWKLV
WKHVLV
7R VWRS WKH LQFUHDVLQJ GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI LWV ILVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV WKH 0H[LFDQ IHGHUDO JRYHUQPHQW KDV UHFHQWO\ DGRSWHG VXVWDLQDEOH PDQDJHPHQW DSSURDFKHV HJ HFRV\VWHPEDVHG DSSURDFKHV FRPDQDJHPHQW VWUDWHJLHV DQG SURGXFHU±DFDGHP\ OLQNLQJWKURXJKLWVOHJDOLQVWUXPHQWV'2)D7KXV(%)0LVEHLQJLPSOHPHQWHG WKURXJKPDMRULQVWLWXWLRQEXLOGLQJHIIRUWV5LYHUD$UULDJDDQLQFUHDVHLQXVHUDQG VFLHQWLVW SDUWLFLSDWLRQ +HUQiQGH].HPSWRQ DQG LPSURYHPHQWV LQ WKH SROLF\ IUDPHZRUN 2(&' 3LWFKHU HW DO $W WKH ORFDO OHYHO DFKLHYHPHQWV FDQ EH
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
$W\SHRIERWWRPXSLPSOHPHQWDWLRQUHPDLQVLQWKRVHSODFHVLQZKLFKFRPPXQDOV\VWHPV SUHVHQW HQIRUFHDEOH ORFDO SURSHUW\ ULJKWV UHVWULFWLQJ WKH DFFHVV WR ILVK VWRFNV 7KHVH FDVHVUHSUHVHQWDUWLVDQDOILVKHULHVV\VWHPVZLWKORZHUJRYHUQPHQWDOLQWHUHVWVEHFDXVH WKH\DUHPDLQO\ERXQGWRORFDOEHQHILWV$OWKRXJKLQJHQHUDOWKHVHFRPPXQDOILVKHULHV KDYHEHHQEDUHO\VWXGLHGVRPHRIWKHPDUHVXFFHVVIXOO\PDQDJHGE\DQFHVWUDOILVKLQJ FXOWXUHVZKRVHYLVLRQ ZLWKDEDVLVLQSURIRXQGWUDGLWLRQDOHFRORJLFDONQRZOHGJHRIWKH DUHD¶V PDULQH UHVRXUFHV FRPHV FORVH WR KROLVWLF PDQDJHPHQW %DVXUWR /R]DQR )RUH[DPSOHSUH+LVSDQLFFXOWXUHVLQWKH6RXWKHUQ0H[LFRVXFKDVWKH+XDYH DQG =DSRWHF LQ 2D[DFD KDYH XVHG ILVKHULHV UHVRXUFHV VXVWDLQDEO\ IRU WKRXVDQGV RI \HDUVWKURXJKNQRZOHGJHV\VWHPVZKRVHPHWKRGVRYHUODSZLWK(%)0DSSURDFKHVVXFK DVDUHDURWDWLRQDQGWKHH[SOLFLWFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJVHYHUDOWHUUHVWULDO DQGPDULQHHFRV\VWHPVLQFRDVWDODUHDV
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iUDWHHWDO6iHQ]$UUR\RHWDO6HLQJLHUHWDOE
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
5HJDUGLQJ(%)0WRROV(0VDUHLQFUHDVLQJO\FRQVWUXFWHGWRUHSUHVHQWWKHG\QDPLFVRI WKH0H[LFDQILVKLQJDUHDVDQGZHOOVWXGLHGSULRULWDU\FRQVHUYDFLRQVLWHVFDQKDYHPRUH WKDQ RQH DSSURDFK VXFK DV *XOI RI &DOLIRUQLD %D\ RI /D 3D] DQG 7pUPLQRV ODJRRQ +RZHYHU ZHOOVWXGLHG PDULQH HFRV\VWHPV DV WKH WKUHH PHQWLRQHG DERYH DUH QRW FRPPRQLQ0H[LFR0RVWSDUWVRIWKHILVKLQJDUHDVUHPDLQZLWKRXWHFRV\VWHPPRGHOLQJ DSSURDFKHVGXHWROLPLWHGTXDQWLWDWLYHGDWDDQGH[SHUWLVHZKLFKRIWHQUHIOHFWVRQO\EDVLF WUDLQLQJ LQ VWRFN DVVHVVPHQW +HQFH LQ VSLWH RI WKH ODUJH VSHFWUXP RI (0V GHVLJQHG ZRUOGZLGH3ODJiQ\LLQ0H[LFRWKHSRWHQWLDORIHFRV\VWHPPRGHOLQJDVDVWDQGDUG WRRORI(%)0KDVQRWEHHQWKRURXJKO\H[SORUHG
&RQVLGHULQJ WKH 0H[LFR¶V FRQWH[W PHQWLRQHG DERYH D PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\ JURXS RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO UHVHDUFKHUV GHVLJQHG WZR SURMHFWV ³5HJLRQDOL]DFLyQ HFRVLVWpPLFD FRQ EDVH HQ LQGLFDGRUHV DPELHQWDOHV GH WUHV iUHDV PDULQDV HQ HO VXU GH 0p[LFR´ DQG ³$ SURSRVDOIRUWKHVSDWLDOSODQQLQJRIWZRWUDGLWLRQDOILVKHULHVLQFRPSHWLWLRQ+XDYHVDQG =DSRWHFV´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
VFLHQWLVWV WR GHVLJQ PDQDJHPHQW VWUDWHJLHV DQG WR XVH WKRVH WRROV WKDW DUH DGHTXDWHIRUWKHSDUWLFXODULWLHVRIWKHLUILVKHULHV"
:KDWDUHWKHUHOHYDQWFRQWH[WXDOIDFWRUVDQGKRZKDYHWKHVHVKDSHGILVKHULHVLQ GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQJHQHUDODQGLQ0H[LFRLQSDUWLFXODUZKHUH(%)0DQG(0V DUHEHLQJLPSOHPHQWHG"
+RZ GRHV D WUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\ PRGHOLQJ FRQWULEXWH WR DFKLHYLQJ WKH JRDOV RI (%)0 LQ WZR 0H[LFDQ ILVKHULHV DUHDV ZKHUH HFRV\VWHP FRQVLGHUDWLRQV KDYH EHLQJVXFFHVVIXOO\LPSOHPHQWHG"
2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKHVLV
7KLVWKHVLVLVFRPSRVHGRIDFROOHFWLRQRISDSHUVIRFXVLQJRQDQDQDO\VLVRIWKH(%)0 DQG (0V LQ SUHVHQW GD\ ILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW ZLWK D VSHFLDO IRFXV RQ WKH 0H[LFDQ VLWXDWLRQ
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
)LJ,6WXG\DUHDV8SSHU*XOIRI&DOLIRUQLD8*&DQG+XDYH/DJRRQ6\VWHP+/6
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0 &KDSWHU,,FRQVLGHUVWKHFKRLFHRIWKHPRVWSURPLVLQJHFRV\VWHPPRGHOIRUILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW7KURXJKDOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZRQWKHFXUUHQWVWDWHRIWKH(%)0IUDPHZRUN DQG(0VWKHDLPZDVWRLOOXVWUDWHKRZDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIERWKFRXOGIDFLOLWDWHD PRUHVXLWDEOHXVHRI(0VLQWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVV%HFDXVHQRVLQJOH(0KDV EHHQ IRXQG WR VXFFHVVIXOO\ DFFRPSOLVK DOO RI WKH (%)0 JRDOV D SODQQLQJ PRGHOLQJ VFKHPHLVVXJJHVWHGDQGGHVFULEHGWKDWZRXOGEHSXUVXHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFRQWH[WRI HDFKVSHFLILFDUHD
&KDSWHU ,, FRQVLGHU WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH FXUUHQW ILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW LQ
0H[LFR7RRXWOLQHWKHQDWLRQDOFRQWH[WRIWKHFRQWHPSRUDU\ILVKHULHVUHJLPHLQ0H[LFRD KLVWRULFDODQDO\VLV±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
&KDSWHU,,DQGFRQVLGHUSUDFWLFDOH[DPSOHVRIWUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\PRGHOLQJ7KH8*&
DQG WKH +/6 ZHUH UHSUHVHQWHG WKURXJK WZR PRGHOV WKDW LQFOXGHG WUDGLWLRQDO &KDSWHU
,,DQGORFDO&KDSWHU,,$SSHQGL[,,HFRORJLFDONQRZOHGJHUHVSHFWLYHO\%HFDXVH
WKHILQDO DLP RI ERWK VWXGLHV ZDV WR LGHQWLI\ HFRV\VWHPOHYHO PDQDJHPHQW DOWHUQDWLYHV FDSDEOHRIGLPLQLVKLQJILVKLQJLPSDFWVWKHHFRV\VWHPUHVSRQVHWRVSHFLILFPDQDJHPHQW VWUDWHJLHV LQFUHDVH LQ SURWHFWHG VSHFLHV DEXQGDQFHV DQG UHGXFWLRQ RI FDUQLYRUH E\ FDWFKUDWLRLQWKHJLOOQHWILVKHULHVZDVHYDOXDWHG
&KDSWHU ,, FRQVLGHUV WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI HFRV\VWHP PRGHOLQJ WR
(%)0LQWKH8*&%HFDXVHLQDSODQQLQJPRGHOVFKHPHWKHIHHGEDFNLVQHFHVVDU\WR WKH VHOHFWLRQ RI VXSSOHPHQWDU\ (0V WR H[SORUH K\SRWKHVHV WKDW HPHUJHG IURP WKH SUHYLRXVPRGHO(0VZHUHFRPSDUHGZLWKVLQJOHVSHFLHVPRGHODSSOLFDWLRQVDVDEDVLV IRUDVVHVVLQJWKHEHQHILWVRIHDFK(0DVDWRROIRUHYDOXDWLQJPDQDJHPHQWDOWHUQDWLYHV
FDSDEOHRIGLPLQLVKLQJILVKLQJLPSDFWVRQPDULQHHFRV\VWHPVLQWKH8*&7KHVWUHQJWKV DQG ZHDNQHVVHV RI GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI (0V DQG WKHLU DELOLW\ WR HYDOXDWH WKH V\VWHPLF PHFKDQLVPVXQGHUO\LQJREVHUYHGVKLIWVLQUHVRXUFHSURGXFWLRQDUHDOVRH[DPLQHGZLWK UHVSHFWWR(%)0JHQHUDOJRDOV
0DLQPHWKRGVHPSOR\HG
7KHPHWKRGVXVHGLQWKLVWKHVLVFDQEHJURXSHGLQWRWZRW\SHV'HVFULSWLYHDSSURDFKHV ZHUHXVHGWRXQGHUVWDQGWKH0H[LFDQFRQWH[WDQGWRH[HPSOLI\WKHVWDWHRIWKH(%)0 IUDPHZRUN DQG (0V VWDWHRIWKHDUW LQ ERWK WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO ILVKHULHV DUHQD DQG WKH 8*& 7KH VHFRQG W\SH RI DSSURDFK LQYROYHG PHWKRGV WKDW KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG WR GHVLJQDWUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\PRGHO
&RQWH[WXDOVLWXDWLRQ
%LEOLRJUDSKLFUHYLHZVRQVSHFLDOL]HGOLWHUDWXUHZHUHFRQGXFWHGWRGHVFULEHWKHQDWLRQDO &KDSWHU ,, DQG ORFDO &KDSWHU ,, ILVKHULHV FRQWH[W DQG WKH VWDWH RI WKH (%)0 IUDPHZRUN DQG (0V VWDWHRIWKHDUW LQ ERWK WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO ILVKHULHV DUHQD &KDSWHU
,,DQGWKH8*&&KDSWHU,,7KHLQIRUPDWLRQJDWKHUHGIRU&KDSWHU,,ZDVWUHDWHG
LQ D WHPSRUDO PDQQHU ZKLOH LQ &KDSWHU ,, LW ZDV DOVR GHVFULEHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHRUHWLFDOUHVHDUFKVXEMHFWDFDGHPLFDQGPHWKRGRORJLFDODSSURDFKVSDWLDOVFDOHDQG W\SHRIPDQDJHPHQWDSSURDFKDQGVSDWLDOSDWWHUQV
%HFDXVHDNH\LVVXHIRUSROLFLHVDGGUHVVLQJFRPPRQSRROUHVRXUFHV&35VVXFKDV ILVKHULHVLVKRZWKHVRFLDODQGQDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQWLQIOXHQFHVDFWRUV¶GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ (GZDUGVDQG6WHLQVEVXJJHVWHGWKHXVHRIFRQWH[WXDOIDFWRUVDQDO\VLV&)$WR XQGHUVWDQG XVHUV¶ DFWLRQV LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI D SDUWLFXODU UHVRXUFH VLWXDWLRQ DQG WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH HYROXWLRQ DQG VWDWH RI ILVKHULHV UHJLPHV 7R LGHQWLI\ ORFDO DQG UHPRWH IRUFHVWKDWKDYHSOD\HGNH\UROHVLQWKHKLVWRULFDOFRGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHPDLQSROLFLHV FXUUHQWO\ LQYROYHG LQ 0H[LFDQ ILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQW &KDSWHU ,, FRQWH[WXDO IDFWRUV ZHUHFDWHJRUL]HGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUGLUHFWRULQGLUHFWLQIOXHQFHRQVLWXDWLRQDOYDULDEOHV )XUWKHUPRUHD&)$PDNHVLWSRVVLEOHWRµEDFNVROYH¶WKHRXWFRPHVWRLGHQWLI\XQGHUO\LQJ PHFKDQLVPVDQGFULWLFDOFRQWH[WXDOIDFWRUVDQGWKXVWRXQGHUVWDQGSDUWLFXODUEHKDYLRUV LQIOXHQFLQJGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
7UDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\PRGHOLQJ
7KH WUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\ PRGHOLQJ XVHG WR H[DPLQH WKH WZR PDULQH V\VWHPV )LJ ,
&KDSWHUV,,DQG,,LQYROYHGIRXUPHWKRGV
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
3UHVVXUH6WDWH5HVSRQVH365IUDPHZRUN7RDQDO\]HWKHYDULDEOHVRIPRGHOVDV FRPSRQHQWV RI D VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW SURFHVV HQYLURQPHQWDO LQGLFDWRUV ZHUH VHOHFWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH365IUDPHZRUN2(&'7KHHQYLURQPHQWDOLQGLFDWRUV ZHUH WRROV XVHG IRU PRQLWRULQJ SXUSRVHV DQG WKH\ ZHUH GHVLJQHG WR SURYLGH XVHIXO VLPSOHIDVWDQGQRQH[SHQVLYHHYLGHQFHRIDQHFRV\VWHPVWDWH
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
*HRJUDSKLF ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6\VWHP *,6 7R SURSRVH DQ DOWHUQDWLYH ]RQLQJ IRU ERWK PDULQH HFRV\VWHPV XVLQJ VSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP WKH ORFDO SHRSOH DQG VFLHQWLILFOLWHUDWXUH7KLVWKHVLVVXSSRUWVWKHXVHRIILVKLQJVHDVFDSHVDQGWKHLUWHPSRUDO YDULDWLRQV WR SUREH WKHLU XVHIXOQHVV LQ DQDO\]LQJ ILVKHULHV LQ DQ HFRV\VWHPEDVHG
)LJ, 0HWKRGRORJ\ IOX[ GLDJUDP ZLWK IRXU VWDJHV LQIRUPDWLRQ UHFRUGLQJ LQGLFDWRUV VHOHFWLRQ UHJLRQDOL]DWLRQ DQG HFRV\VWHPV PRGHOV IRU HDFK VHDVFDSH 7KH S\UDPLGDO VWUXFWXUHRIWKHWZRILUVWVWDJHVLVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHVHOHFWLYHSURFHVVIRULQGLFDWRUVHOHFWLRQ
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
&KDSWHU ,, :KDW PRGHO VXLWV (FRV\VWHP
EDVHG)LVKHULHV0DQDJHPHQW"±$SOHDIRUD
VWUXFWXUHGSODQQLQJSURFHVV
$OHMDQGUR(VSLQR]D7HQRULR0DWWKLDV:ROII0DUF+7D\ORU
,OHDQD(VSHMHO
$XWKRU¶VSRVWLQJ7KLVLVWKHDXWKRU¶VYHUVLRQRIWKHZRUN3OHDVHFLWHWKHILQDOYHUVLRQ VXEPLWWHGWR5HYLHZVLQ)LVK%LRORJ\DQG)LVKHULHV$UWLFOHVXEPLWWHG1RYHPEHU (VSLQR]D7HQRULR $ :ROI 0 7D\ORU 0+ (VSHMHO , VXEPLWWHG :KDW PRGHO VXLWV (FRV\VWHPEDVHG)LVKHULHV0DQDJHPHQW"±$SOHDIRUDVWUXFWXUHGSODQQLQJSURFHVV 5HYLHZVLQ)LVK%LRORJ\DQG)LVKHULHV
$EVWUDFW
$V WRROV ZLWKLQ (FRV\VWHP%DVHG )LVKHULHV 0DQDJHPHQW (%)0 D ZLGH UDQJH RI (FRV\VWHP0RGHOV(0VKDYHEHHQGHVLJQHGWRUHSUHVHQWHFRV\VWHPFRPSOH[LW\EXWLW LVQRWDOZD\VFOHDUKRZWKHRXWSXWVRIWKHVHPRGHOVFDQEHDSSOLHG :HDGGUHVVWKLV GHEDWH LQ D OLWHUDWXUH UHYLHZ WR LOOXVWUDWH KRZ D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI HFRV\VWHP PRGHOLQJ ZLWKLQ WKH (%)0 IUDPHZRUN FRXOG IDFLOLWDWH WKH XVH RI (0V LQ WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJSURFHVV:HFODVVLI\(0VDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUFRPSOH[LW\WRTXDOLWDWLYHO\HYDOXDWH WKHLUOHYHORIVXFFHVVZLWKUHJDUGWRILYHJHQHUDOJRDOVRI(%)0,QSULQFLSOHQRVLQJOH (0LVIRXQGWRVXFFHVVIXOO\DFFRPSOLVKDOOWKH(%)0JRDOV7KHUHIRUHZHVXJJHVWWKDW WKHZD\ LQ ZKLFKHFRV\VWHPPRGHOLQJFDQHIIHFWLYHO\FRQWULEXWHWR(%)0 LVWKURXJKD SODQQLQJPRGHOLQJVFKHPHZKLFKVKRXOGEHSXUVXHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFRQWH[WRIHDFK VSHFLILFDUHD7KLVFRPELQHGDQGFROOHFWLYHPRGHOLQJVWUDWHJ\VKRXOGFRQVLGHUDUDQJHRI (0V IURP UDWKHU VLPSOH RQHV ZLWK IHZ SDUDPHWHUV ZKRVH RXWSXWV DUH VFLHQWLILFDOO\ UREXVWEXWDUHRIOLPLWHGXVHZLWKLQWKH(%)0WRWKRVHZKLFKLQFOXGHDODUJHQXPEHURI
HFRV\VWHP HOHPHQWV \HW DW WKH H[SHQVH RI LQFUHDVHG XQFHUWDLQW\ ,I PXOWLSOH (0V GHVSLWHWKHLUGLIIHUHQWDVVXPSWLRQVOHDGWRFRQVLVWHQWUHVXOWVWKHQUREXVWPDQDJHPHQW GHFLVLRQV ZLOO EH VXSSRUWHG7KHSUHVHQW SDSHUZRXOG EH SDUWLFXODUO\ XVHIXO WR DQ\RQH LQYROYHG LQ WKH VHOHFWLRQ RI PRGHOLQJ WRROV IRU WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI ILVKHULHV PDQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJLHVLQGLIIHUHQWVLWXDWLRQV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
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
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0
+LOERUQ DQG :DOWHUV HFRV\VWHP PRGHOLQJ KDV QR PHWKRGRORJLFDO EHQFKPDUNV DJDLQVWZKLFKRQHPD\HYDOXDWHWKHPRGHOV+ROORZHGHWDOE$VDUHVXOWRIWKHVH XQUHVROYHG FKDOOHQJHV WKH VWUXFWXUDO DVVXPSWLRQV RI WKHVH PRGHOV DUH XVXDOO\ QRW FRQVLGHUHGWKHLUUHOLDELOLW\LVSRRUO\XQGHUVWRRG:l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
8QGHUWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDW³QRPRGHOLVSHUIHFWIRUDOOSXUSRVHV´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
(%)0JHQHUDOJRDOV
$OWKRXJK (%)0 FRQWLQXHV WR HYROYH ZLWK D EURDG GLVFXVVLRQ RI GHILQLWLRQV DQG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV RI FRQFHSWVPHWKRGV DQG VFRSHV &DGG\ 0XUDZVNL WKHLU EDVLFSULQFLSOHVFRPPRQO\H[SUHVVHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHIROORZDWOHDVWILYHJHQHUDOJRDOV DVGHVFULEHGEHORZ
6RFLHW\SDUWLFLSDWLRQ7KHREMHFWLYHVRIUHVRXUFHPDQDJHPHQWDUHDPDWWHURIVRFLHWDO FKRLFHZKHUHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJVKRXOGEHGHFHQWUDOL]HGWRWKHORZHVWDSSURSULDWHOHYHO 7KH VRFLHW\ZLGH SDUWLFLSDWLRQ QHHGV WKHUHIRUH WR EH LQFUHPHQWDO DQG FROODERUDWLYH DQGWRVWULYHIRUDEDODQFHDPRQJHFRQRPLFFXOWXUDODQGVRFLDOREMHFWLYHV&%' 6PLWKHWDO
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
6SDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDOHV (%)0 VKRXOG EH XQGHUWDNHQ DW DSSURSULDWH UHVROXWLRQV WR VXLWDEO\UHSUHVHQWHFRV\VWHPSURFHVVHVWKDWRSHUDWHRQGLIIHUHQWWHPSRUDOVFDOHVDQG DIIHFW GLIIHUHQW VSDWLDO H[WHQWV )RU WKRVH SURFHVVHV ZLWK XQFOHDU ERXQGDULHV HJ PLJUDWLRQDQGZDWHUFXUUHQWVLWLVFULWLFDOWRFRQVLGHUWKHGULYHUVRIFKDQJHRSHUDWLQJ ERWK EHWZHHQ JHRJUDSKLF VFDOHV DV ZHOO DV WKRVH RFFXUULQJ RYHU ORQJ WHUP SHULRGV 0F/HRGDQG/HVOLH
7KH EDODQFH RI FRQVHUYDWLRQ DQG XVH 7KH HFRV\VWHP DSSURDFK VKRXOG VHHN DQ DSSURSULDWHEDODQFHEHWZHHQFRQVHUYDWLRQDQGXVHZKHUHWKHSULRULW\LVWRREWDLQDQG PDLQWDLQ ORQJWHUP VRFLRHFRQRPLF EHQHILWV ZLWKRXW FRPSURPLVLQJWKH HFRV\VWHP7R DFKLHYH WKLV EDODQFH (%)0 UHFRJQL]HV WKDW FKDQJH LV LQHYLWDEOH DQG WKHUHIRUH LW PXVW EH DGDSWLYH LQ LWV GHYHORSPHQW RYHU WLPH DV FLUFXPVWDQFHV FKDQJH RU DV QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ EHFRPHV DYDLODEOH .DXIPDQ HW DO 7KH HFRV\VWHPV PD\ EH
$QLQWHJUDWLYHSODQQLQJDSSURDFKIRU(%)0 PDQDJHGZLWKLQWKHOLPLWVRIWKHLUIXQFWLRQLQJDQGVRPHOHYHORISUHFDXWLRQLVLQHYLWDEO\ UHTXLUHGHVSHFLDOO\IRULPSDFWVWKDWDUHSRWHQWLDOO\LUUHYHUVLEOHRYHUORQJWLPHSHULRGV )$2
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
(FRV\VWHPPRGHOLQJ
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
7KHIRUPDOVHSDUDWLRQRI(0VLVQRWDOZD\VHDV\DQGWKHUHDUHPDQ\FDWHJRUL]DWLRQVRI WKHVH PRGHOV 8FKPDĔQVNL DQG *ULP +ROORZHG HW DO E 3HOOHWLHU DQG 0DKpYDV.H\ODQG:ROII:HH[WHQGHGGHILQLWLRQVDQGDGGHGVRPHPRGHOV
WR WKH IRXU FDWHJRULHV GHILQHG E\ 3ODJiQ\L EHFDXVH WKHVH ZHUH GHVLJQDWHG DFFRUGLQJWRFULWHULDIURP(%)0DQGHVSHFLDOO\UHJDUGLQJWKHOHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\7KXV WKH VSHFWUXP RI DSSURDFKHV 7DEOH ,, UDQJHG IURP VLPSOH H[WHQVLRQV RI VLQJOH VSHFLHVPRGHOVWRFRPSOH[ZKROHHFRV\VWHPPRGHOVLQZKLFKFDVHDKLJKGHJUHHRI XQFHUWDLQW\LVDGGHG)LJ,,'DWHUHTXLUHPHQWVIOH[LELOLW\VHQVLELOLW\DQGHUURUDUH DOVRLQYROYHGLQWKLVEDODQFH6QRZOLQJDQG.UDPHU
7DEOH ,, &ODVVLILFDWLRQ RI HFRV\VWHPV PRGHOV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH DUUDQJHPHQW VXJJHVWHG E\ 3ODJiQ\L
&DWHJRU\ 'HVFULSWLRQ 0RGHODQGUHIHUHQFHV
([WHQVLRQVRI6LQJOH 6SHFLHV$VVHVVPHQW 0RGHOV 0RGHOVWKDWH[SDQGRQFXUUHQWVLQJOH VSHFLHVDVVHVVPHQWVLQFOXGLQJRQO\ DIHZDGGLWLRQDODVSHFWVVXFKDVWKH FRQVLGHUDWLRQRIVSHFLHVUHODWHGWR WDUJHWUHVRXUFHVRUILVKLQJHIIRUW +ROORZHGHWDOD5RXWOHGJH 7MHOPHODQGDQG/LQGVWURP '\QDPLF0XOWL6SHFLHV 0RGHOV $SSURDFKHVUHVWULFWHGWRUHSUHVHQWD OLPLWHGQXPEHURIVSHFLHVJURXSV ZKLFKDUHPRVWOLNHO\WRKDYH LPSRUWDQWLQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKWKHWDUJHW VSHFLHV 0XOWLVSHFLHV9LUWXDO3RSXODWLRQ$QDO\VLV 0693$DQG06)25VHH0DJQӭVVRQ 6SDUKROW/LYLQJVWRQDQG -XUDGR0ROLQD,QGLYLGXDO%DVHG 0RGHOV,%0VHH%DUW8FKPDĔ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xR0RFWH]XPDHWDO &KDSWHU,, 'LVMXQFWLYH&RPSOH[LW\RUXQFHUWDLQW\ /HYLQVPDLQWDLQVWKDWHYHU\PRGHOGHDOVZLWKWKHEDVLFGLOHPPDRIKDYLQJRQO\ WZR RI WKUHH DVSHFWV VDWLVILHG UHDOLVP TXDOLWDWLYH SUHFLVLRQ TXDQWLWDWLYH DQG JHQHUDOLW\WKHXQLYHUVDOLW\RIDSSOLFDELOLW\7KHUHDOLVPSUHFLVLRQEDODQFHLVWKHFULWLFDO GLVMXQFWLYH WR PRGHOHUV ZKR ZDQW WR UHGXFH WKH V\VWHP FRPSOH[LW\ E\ LQFOXGLQJ D PLQLPXPQXPEHURIFRPSRQHQWV.H\ODQG:ROII+RZHYHUE\LQFOXGLQJDOLPLWHG