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PV MANUFACTURING IN EUROPE
Statements
Andreas W. Bett
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
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Status Quo
Current European c-Si PV Manufacturing Landscape
Feedstock Si in Iceland, Norway and Germany
Silicon/wafer production in Scandinavia/France
Distribution of small module production plants
< 500 MW/a capacity
Almost no cell production capacity
50 – 100 MWp 100 – 500 MWp
> 500 MWp CellModule Ingot / Wafer
atersa
Voltec Energetica (Ramp Up)
EcoSolifer (under constr.)
ENEL
Hevel Solar
ExaSun
CS Wismar AleoSolarwatt
Heckert
SoliTek Precizika
EDF PW
NorSun mg-Si / Poly-Si
ELKEM
Norwegian Crystals
EKoRE
(under constr.) Heliene
Parla Solar
Pekintas pcc SE
Sunerg Solar Trienergia RECOM
Value chain step
Factory size
Hanplast
Altius
Kness group
Megasol RECOM SunPowerWacker
Smart Solar
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The 10 GW GreenFab
Take the Challenge and Make Business
10 GWp fully integrated production in Europe is competitive
Cost advantages >10 % due to reduced logistic costs
Production with less CO2 emission
Strong growing European PV market
For more see: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/renewable-energy-data.html More: tomorrow, Tuesday 11:00, Solar Industry Foum
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Growth of the European Photovoltaic Market Expected!
Example: Scenario by Solar Power Europe
Strong market growth already in 2019
Future growth to more than 30 GW/a in 2023 and 200 GW/a in 2030
Drivers
Binding national targets for
renewables in many EU-28 countries
Strong price decrease due to the restructuring of the Chinese market
Activities of utilities, corporates, and big funds in Europe who invest in PV as both the lowest cost and most versatile energy generation source
i: Energy Transition in Europe, LTU and EnergyWatch group, 2019, ii: SolarPower Europe Global Market Outlook 2019, iii: Wood MacKenzie, Europe solar PV outlook, 2019
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Carbon Emissions of PV Production and Effects of a Carbon Pricing Scenarios: Germany and China
CO2 cost difference of a Cz PERC module production located in Germany compared to China.
Carbon footprint of a Cz PERC glass-backsheet module production*
0.33 0.48
0.17 0.04 0.22
0.06 0.10
0.24 0.12
0.88 0.27
1.14
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
Germany China GWP [kg CO2_eq/Wp]
Module Production Cell
Production Wafering Cz
Crystallisation Poly Silicon Total
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
0 50 100 150
Differential CO2_eqCosts [€ct/Wp]
CO2 price [€/t]
China versus Germany
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Costs for Logistics Becomes Notable!
More than 10% of Full Delivery Costs!
© Mapswire
Up to 3 €ct/W transport cost & CO2 emission Production cost 2022: ~ 20 €ct/W
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Containerschiff#/media/Datei:NYK_Virgo_(8154929586).jpg
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Cost Comparison of Module Manufacturing Europe versus China Calculation of Full Manufacturing Module Costs
Comparision costs for module manufacturing assuming a 1 GWp manufacturing capacity
Manufactured in China (as reference scenario)
Manufactured in Europe with today´s European material supply chain (EU.pl)
Manufactured in Europe with adapted European material supply chain (EU.pl Recover)
local manufacturing opens opportunities
*
*Ref: J. Rentsch, et al, Competitiveness of a European PV manufacturing chain, Photovolt. Int., Vol. 43, p. 29-35, 2019
More: Friday 2EO1.1, P. Fath et al
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Development of Cost in Dependence of Manufacturing Size Scenario: Europe with Today´s Material Supply
Production volume
Better line balancing: less
equipment, higher utilization, labour decrease
Supply chain
Buying power related discounts
Additional scaling effects
Less overhead (diluted SG&A cost)
Lower interest rate with higher corporate value
“EU.pl” case is shown
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Example Setup
Business model: Crystallization + wafering + cell- + module- production
Product: High efficiency mono Si 21,9% modules (glass-glass, 30 years warranty/>40 years lifetime)
CAPEX for 10 GW: ~ 2 billion Euro
Possible Financing Scheme:
25% equity = 0.5 bn €; 25% subsidy = 0.5 bn €;
30% EIB loan = 0,6 bn €; 20% bank loan = 0,4 bn €
Support scheme on European level
IPCEI for Photovoltaics
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PV as an Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI) Setting the Framework for Investments
PV will play the major role in meeting Europe’s 32 % renewables target by 2030, and beyond
The economic weight of the PV value chain is huge
Local production in the EU allows for strategic autonomy in the important energy sector as well as for job creation and leadership in innovation
Europe has a strong industrial and R&D knowledge base for PV production
But: Re-establishing the complete PV value chain requires a joint and strategic initiative The PV value chain is of strategic importance for Europe
An Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI) should provide the framework for public and private investments into the PV value chain.
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Fraunhofer Institut for Solar Energy Systems ISE Dr. Andreas Bett
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
andreas.bett@ise.fraunhofer.de
