• Keine Ergebnisse gefunden

A stochastic coupling scheme for climate models with high ocean-to-atmosphere resolution ratio

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Aktie "A stochastic coupling scheme for climate models with high ocean-to-atmosphere resolution ratio"

Copied!
13
0
0

Wird geladen.... (Jetzt Volltext ansehen)

Volltext

(1)

A stochastic coupling scheme for climate models with high ocean-to-atmosphere resolution ratio

Thomas Rackow and Stephan Juricke EGU General Assembly 2018

FESOM ocean

ECHAM atmosphere

(2)

finer than 0.25°

along the equator

Motivation

60 : 1

1.875° x 1.875°

random ocean grid point

atmospheric cell average

(3)

Motivation

-3 3

• Resulting perturbations have zero mean and std=1;

varying over the year

• More process-oriented approach to stochastic perturbation

(4)

Experimental set-up

• Multi-resolution AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM;

Rackow et al., 2016; Sidorenko et al., 2015)

• Coupled configuration of the Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model(FESOM) and ECHAM6

• Refinement in the ocean along the equator, along coastlines, and in the Arctic

2 experiments:

1) REF: standard 6-hourly deterministic coupling;

1500yr present-day (1990) control run

2) STOCH: stochastic coupling; 15 start dates to better sample decadal variability, branching from REF; 15x 9-yr simulations (total of 135 years)

High ocean-to-atmosphere

resolution ratio in the eq. Pacific

Rackow et al., 2016

(5)

Results

°C

mm/day

(6)

Results

°C

mm/day

warmer temp. with strong conv. precip events more likely

(7)

Results: precip bias and change

• Change (STOCH-REF) resembles bias pattern, but with different sign -> major improvement by 10% (mean) and up to 50% (interannual variability)

(8)

Results

• precip changes (STOCH-REF) are mainly due to convective precipitation changes

• large-scale precipitation

changes of smaller amplitude in extratropics

(9)

Summary of mechanism

increased temp.

variability

extends well into free troposphere

mean circulation and conv. precip changes

• Rossby wave train leading to large-scale precip changes

(10)

Conclusions

While the SST perturbations act on short time scales (6-hourly coupling), we identified a large impact not only on inter-annual variability,

but also on the mean state

1. higher probability of strong convective precipitation events along the eq.

2. double ITCZ bias is partly reduced (10% for mean), variability up to 50% in tropical Central and East Pacific

3. further impacts on ocean and sea-ice (not shown)

• The coupling scheme is easily transferable to other models; currently implementing the coupling scheme into the OASIS3-MCT coupler (Valcke, 2015)

More details in: Rackow and Juricke, A stochastic coupling scheme for climate models with high ocean-to-atmosphere resolution ratio, under review in JAMES

(11)

Appendix: ocean changes

• Upper ocean salinity changes respond directly to precipitation changes; fresher surface leads to shallower MLD

(12)

Appendix: sea ice changes

• Method decreases sea ice thickness (and concentration) in the Arctic

• Method increases sea ice thickness (and concentration) in the Antarctic

Increased variability at both poles

(13)

Appendix: sea ice concentration changes

• Method decreases sea ice concentration in the Arctic

• Method increases sea ice concentration in the Antarctic

Increased variability at both poles

Referenzen

ÄHNLICHE DOKUMENTE

May 4, 2020, 11:26pm.. Anomalies in sea ice concentration for 2170-2199 for a-b) the coupled model results minus the control state, c-d) the coupled model results minus the

Key region Laptev Sea: freshwater supply (Lena river), ice formation, salt release, strong turbulent heat fluxes Analysis of spatial and temporal variability of sea ice in the

For a partially ice covered ocean, high wind speeds lead to a higher ice concentration and a shift from multiyear ice to first-year ice, while over the ice-free ocean, no

Using generalized linear models, we employed a model selection approach 18 to predict observed dis- tribution shifts resulting from (see Methods, Table 1) (i) the changes in

Such scenario would imply stronger SWW at the present northernmost margin of the wind belt coeval with weaker core westerlies in the south and reduced ACC strength, including

Fourteen years mean SST ( o C) of observations (Janssen et al, 1999, left column), coupled (middle column) and uncoupled (right column) experiments in February and

A mean dynamic ocean topography (MDT) has been computed using a high resolution GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) gravity model and a new mean sea

Upwelling of DIC south of Polar Front ≈ balanced by northward Ekman transport and downwelling north of Polar Front. Changes in gas exchange and biological carbon export are of