Chapter 6: A Task for the Whole World.

THE GREA T TR ANSF ORMA TION CLIMA TE – C AN WE BEA T THE HEA T ?

Climate change, the Anthropocene, rising CO ² levels, the Earth Summit in Rio, wind turbines, combined heat and power generation, desertification, biodiversity loss, Germany’s Renewable Energy Act, change agents – what do all these terms mean exactly and how are they all linked?

This book offers answers.

The evidence for man-made climate change is overwhelming. Other global environmental changes, such as the loss of biodiversity, are closely linked to climate change and to our customary industrial economic practices. We can stop a global climate desaster if engineers, business- people and policy-makers all pull together and if all work on the great transformation across national borders.

Any transformation of society must begin in people’s minds; only then can it be achieved technically with any chance of economic success.

www.die-grosse-transformation.de

w w w.w b g u .d e ISBN 978-3-936191-41-7

THE GREAT

TRANSFORMATION

Here are the experts of the German Advisory Council on Global Change who are quoted in this book:

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, physicist

introduces us to why there has to be a major societal trans- formation.

Reinhold Leinfelder, geologist

explains that we humans today are definitely having a huge impact on nature, even if we still don’t fully know – and can’t predict – all the consequences of our actions.

Stefan Rahmstorf, climatologist

sets out the empirical data and shows why the evidence for climate change is overwhelming.

Dirk Messner, political scientist

believes there is a chance that the world community can still agree on joint measures to combat climate change.

Jürgen Schmid, engineer

is convinced that a CO

2

-free economy is technically feasible.

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, systems analyst

thinks about how reducing people’s consumption of fossil fuels and animal proteins might benefit – rather than damage – newly industrializing and developing countries in particular.

Renate Schubert, economist

calculates that the consequences of doing nothing about climate would cost the world economy much more than all the investments needed to limit it.

Sabine Schlacke, lawyer

believes business won’t be able to manage the great trans- formation alone unless governments create incentives and lay down the right kind of legal framework.

Claus Leggewie, political scientist

reflects on how changes in societal attitudes happen – in every individual.

Scientists become comic-book heroes fighting climate change

A major transformation is needed to stop climate change; in other words, we have to learn to live and to produce what we need in

sustain able ways. Scientists, politicians and citizens will have to work together to achieve

this. In this book, eminent scientists show us that we can beat the heat – and how to do it!

THE GREAT

TRANSFORMATION

CLIMATE – CAN WE BEAT THE HEAT?

WBGU

THE GREAT

TRANSFORMATION

CLIMATE – CAN WE BEAT THE HEAT?

Idea and concept:

Alexandra Hamann, Claudia Zea-Schmidt, Reinhold Leinfelder

Scenario:

Alexandra Hamann and Claudia Zea-Schmidt Scientific advisor:

Reinhold Leinfelder Graphics:

Jörg Hartmann, Jörg Hülsmann,

Robert Nippoldt, Studio Nippoldt, Iris Ugurel

© 2014 WBGU, Berlin All rights reserved ISBN 978-3-936191-41-7

This project would not have been possible without the generous assistance and voluntary cooperation of members of the

German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU).

The prologue was drawn by Iris Ugurel (Berlin).

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Dirk Messner and Renate Schubert were drawn by Robert Nippoldt (Münster).

Reinhold Leinfelder, Jürgen Schmid and Sabine Schlacke were drawn by Jörg Hülsmann (Berlin).

Stefan Rahmstorf, Nebojša Nakiçenoviç, Claus Leggewie and the spectacular finale were drawn by Jörg Hartmann (Münster).

The cover art is the work of Studio Nippoldt (Astrid Nippoldt, Christine Goppel and Robert Nippoldt).

Translation by Bob Culverhouse (Berlin).

Editorial management and scientific advice by WBGU Secretariat (Berlin).

Special thanks for proofreading go to Vincenzo Zambrano (Toronto, Canada).

This project was supported by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research within the framework of the Science Year 2012 – Project EARTH: Our Future. It is based on the study World in

Transition – A Social Contract for Sustainability published by the WBGU in 2011.

Free copies of the comic-book can be ordered from

www. wbgu. de The original edition of this book has been published in German under the title

Die große Transformation. Klima – kriegen wir die Kurve?

© 2013, Verlagshaus Jacoby&Stuart, Berlin www.jacobystuart.de

Content

Prologue - 4

Chapter 1

Why we need to transform ourselves - 12

Chapter 2

Planet Earth in The Anthropocene – The Age of Humans - 24

Chapter 3

Hot stuff: climate change - 36

Chapter 4

We’re not that stupid. A glance into the past - 48

Chapter 5

Technically, everything is possible - 60

Chapter 6

A task for the whole world - 72

Chapter 7

Who is going to pay for it? - 84

Chapter 8

The State also has a role to play - 96

Chapter 9

Politicians can’t manage it alone - 108

Annex The WBGU - 122 The publishers - 123 Members of the WBGU - 124

The artists - 126

Glossary - 127

References - 137

ProloGue

P

RECAMBRIAN, ABOUT THREE BILLION YEARS AGO

L

IVING ROCKS: PRESENT-DAY STROMATOLITES IN

S

^HARK

B

^AY,

W

ESTERN

A

USTRALIA.

I

N THE

P

RECAMBRIAN THEY WERE

SPREAD ALL OVER THE WORLD.

6

F

OR THE FIRST TIME, CYANOBACTERIA

STORE *CARBON DIOXIDE (

CO

2) AND RELEASE OXYGEN WITH THE HELP OF

PHOTOSYNTHESIS.

S

TROMATOLITES GRADUALLY GROW IN THE SHALLOW WATER – SEDIMENTARY ROCKS CONSISTING MAINLY OF COLONIES OF CYANOBACTERIA AND CALCIUM DEPOSITS.

O

XYGEN CONQUERS

THE WORLD.

C

AMBRIAN, 542-488 MILLION YEARS AGO:

O

XYGEN IS REQUIRED FOR ANIMALS TO DEVELOP.

A

^{LMOST ALL}

GROUPS OF ANIMALS HAVE THEIR ORIGINS HERE.

S

ILURIAN, 444-416 MILLION YEARS AGO:

T

HE FIRST PIONEERS ON LAND DEFY THE DANGEROUS

UV

RADIATION.

* NAMES AND TERMS MARKED WITH AN *ASTERISK ARE EXPLAINED IN THE GLOSSARY.

D

EVONIAN, 416-359 MILLION YEARS AGO:

A

FTER ARTHROPODS, MOLLUSCS AND PLANTS, FISH MOVE ONTO

THE LAND.

C

ARBONIFEROUS, 359-299 MILLION YEARS AGO:

T

HE

E

ARTH IS COVERED BY FORESTS OF LYCOPSIDS UP TO 40 METRES HIGH.

S

INCE THIS TIME, HEAT AND PRESSURE HAVE BEEN TURNING DEAD FORESTS INTO COAL.

T

HE *CARBON BOUND IN THE PLANTS IS STORED IN THE GROUND.

P

LANTS THAT HAVE SUNK IN THE SWAMP TURN

INTO PEAT IN THE ABSENCE OF AIR.

PEAT AND WOOD

C^OAL

C^OAL PEAT AND WOOD

SANDS AND CLAYS

LIGNITE

LIGNITE

LIGNITE

LIGNITE

W

HEN THE SEA FLOODS THE SWAMP, SEDIMENTS

COVER THESE LAYERS OF PEAT.

A

S THE PRESSURE BUILDS UP AND THE TEMPERATURE

RISES, LIGNITE IS FORMED FIRST.

T

HE MORE LAYERS ARE DEPOSITED,

THE MORE WATER IS FORCED

OUT OF THE LIGNITE.

T

HE LIGNITE GRADUALLY BECOMES COAL,

WHICH WE ARE STILL MINING

TODAY.

8

P

ARALLEL TO THIS, CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS FORM ON THE SEABED FROM DEAD MARINE ORGANISMS SUCH AS PLANKTON AND ALGAE IN THE ABSENCE OF OXYGEN.

M

ICROSCOPIC ORGANISMS SINK TO THE BOTTOM.

S

EDIMENTS ARE DEPOSITED.

A

NAEROBIC BACTERIA TRANSFORM THE REMAINS OF THE MICROORGANISMS INTO

BITUMEN, A PRECURSOR OF CRUDE OIL.

C

RUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS FINALLY FORM UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND AT HIGH TEMPERATURES; THEY COLLECT

IN SO-CALLED RESERVOIR ROCKS.

J

URASSIC, 200-145 MILLION YEARS AGO:

A

NIMALS AND PLANTS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EVER GREATER DIVERSITY – INCLUDING

DINOSAURS AS TALL AS A HOUSE.

C

RETACEOUS, 145-65 MILLION YEARS AGO:

E

MERGENCE OF FLOWERING PLANTS.

T

ERTIARY, 65-2.6 MILLION YEARS AGO:

A

T THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE

C

RETACEOUS AND THE

T

ERTIARY, ABOUT HALF OF ALL ANIMAL SPECIES ON

E

ARTH

DIE OUT.

P

LEISTOCENE, APPROX. 2.6 MILLION - APPROX. 11,500 YEARS AGO:

A

NCESTORS OF TODAY‘S HUMANS ARE BEGINNING TO USE AND CONTROL FIRE.

T

HE LATEST FINDS SUGGEST THAT HOMO ERECTUS ALREADY PLAYED WITH FIRE AROUND A MILLION YEARS AGO.

A

BOUT 200,000 YEARS AGO, HOMO SAPIENS, THE ‚WISE HUMAN‘, ENTERS THE STAGE.

O

NLY ABOUT 30,000 YEARS AGO DO

PEOPLE LEARN HOW TO IGNITE FIRE FOR THEMSELVES.

F

OR A LONG TIME HUMANS LIVE AS HUNTERS AND GATHERERS, UNTIL THEY START TO GROW CROPS, DOMESTICATE ANIMALS AND SETTLE

DOWN – APPROX. 10,000 YEARS AGO.

T

HEY START TO BUILD CITIES ...

10

... AND REPLACE MUSCLE POWER WITH MACHINES.

T

HE AGE OF INDUSTRIALIZATION BEGINS IN THE MID-18TH CENTURY.

W

ITH IT, THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY RISES.

T

O GENERATE ENERGY, HUMANS BURN THE FOSSIL

CARBON STORED IN COAL, CRUDE OIL AND GAS CONVERTING IT TO

CO

2 WITH

THE AID OF OXYGEN.

T

HE LIBERATED

CO

2 IS ADDED TO THE NATURAL

CO

2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THUS CAUSING THE HUMAN-MADE

GREENHOUSE EFFECT: THE GLOBAL CLIMATE STARTS TO WARM UP.

CHAPTER 1

WHY WE NEED TO

TRANSFORM OURSELVES

H

ANS

J

OACHIM (

J

OHN)

S

CHELLNHUBER IS

D

IRECTOR OF THE

P

OTSDAM

I

NSTITUTE FOR

C

LIMATE

I

MPACT

R

ESEARCH (

PIK

).

H

E IS ALSO EXTERNAL

P

ROFESSOR AT THE

*

S

ANTA

F

E

I

NSTITUTE,

C

HAIRMAN OF THE *

C

LIMATE

KIC

AND

C

HAIR OF THE

G

ERMAN

A

DVISORY

C

OUNCIL ON

G

LOBAL

C

HANGE (

WBGU

).

P

OTSDAM,

T

ELEGRAFENBERG,

A

LBERT

E

INSTEIN

S

CIENCE

P

ARK

S

INCE THE

B

EGINNING OF

I

NDUSTRIALIZATION THE SCALE OF MAN-MADE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES HAS REACHED A NEW

DIMENSION.

A

T THAT TIME ABOUT ONE BILLION PEOPLE LIVED ON EARTH.

T

ODAY THERE ARE 7 BILLION OF US, AND IN 2050

ABOUT 9 BILLION PEOPLE WILL INHABIT THIS PLANET.

14

O

NE OF THE DRIVING FORCES BEHIND THIS EXPANSION LIES IN

THE USE OF *FOSSIL ENERGY RESOURCES SUCH AS COAL, OIL

AND NATURAL GAS ...

... THEY MAKE INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE

POSSIBLE.

F

URTHERMORE WE ENCOUNTER A FAST-GROWING

FLOW OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS, A GROWING VOLUME OF TRAFFIC AND SO

FORTH ...

T

HIS RESULTS IN HIGHER

CO

2- EMISSIONS AND

THEREFORE HIGHER GLOBAL TEMPERATURES.

T

HE

*CLIMATE IS WARMING UP.

O

N THE WAY TO HIS OFFICE,

J

OHN PASSES THE FAMOUS

E

INSTEIN

T

OWER.

M

ANY AREAS OF OUR NATURAL ENVIRONMENT REVEAL CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS.

S

OIL, FRESH WATER RESOURCES, FORESTS AND OCEANS ARE BEING OVER-EXPLOITED OR EVEN

DESTROYED.

B

IODIVERSITY, THE RICHNESS OF NATURE, IS DECLINING

DRAMATICALLY.

A

ND THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON BASIC CHEMICAL PROCESSES LIKE FOR INSTANCE

THE *CARBON CYCLE IS ENORMOUS.

16

W

HAT IS AT STAKE IS THE ABILITY OF THE EARTH SYSTEM TO CONTINUE PROVIDING HUMAN CIVILIZATION WITH THE STABLE

LIFE-SUPPORT SYSTEM IN WHICH WE EVOLVED.

I

F WE DO NOT TURN DOWN THE HEAT WE SHALL COLLIDE WITH THE *

P

LANETARY

GUARD RAILS.

H

ERE, AN ENERGY-OPTIMIZED OFFICE BUILDING IS BEING CONSTRUCTED.

I

N ORDER TO ALTER OUR COURSE AND TO PREVENT THE EARTH SYSTEM FROM BREAKING DOWN, WE MUST

RE-INVENT OURSELVES.

T

HE »GREAT REFRACTOR« IS THE MAIN TELESCOPE OF THE

A

STROPHYSICAL

O

BSERVATORY.

W

E NEED A CHANGE TOWARDS *SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ...

T

HE CENTRAL BUILDING OF THE

PIK

...

... FOOD SECURITY, MEDICAL CARE, EDUCATION,

RECREATION IN A NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AND SO

FORTH.

F

OR ME SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT COMPRISES

CERTAIN FUNDAMENTAL V ALUES AND RIGHTS,

SUCH AS ...

*P^LANETARY B_OUNDAR

IES

18

R

IGHT NOW A

M

EETING OF THE

WBGU

IS TAKING PLACE.

S

INCE 1994 THE

WBGU

^{HAS BEEN}

DEVELOPING

P

LANETARY GUARD RAILS FOR

C

LIMATE

C

HANGE AS WELL AS FOR

B

IODIVERSITY AND OTHER AREAS OF GLOBAL CHANGE.

T

HE

WBGU

DESCRIBES THESE

P

LANETARY GUARD RAILS AS MEASUR ABLE DA- MAGE THRESHOLDS.

O

NCE THEY ARE TRANSGRESSED, THE IMMEDIATE OR FUTURE CONSEQUENCES WOULD BE INTOLERABLE AND PUT OUR CIVILIZATION AT RISK.

S

TAYING WITHIN THE GUARD RAILS MEANS STAYING SAFE.

Source: Rockström et al., 2009 CHEMICAL

STRATO SPHE

RIC

OZONE

CYCLE

*N^ITRO GEN

*^PHOS PHORUS

GLOBAL FRESH WATER USE B_IO

DIVER SITY LOSS

L_{AND USE} CHANGES

CYCLE

*DEP LETION POLLUTION

LOADING (NOT YET

ATM

OSPHERIC AEROSOL

(NOT YET

QUANTIFIED)

QUANTIFIED)

CLIMATE CHANGE

*OCEAN ACIDIF ICATION

F

OR INSTANCE, THE 2 °

C C

LIMATE-

P

ROTEC-

TION

G

UARDRAIL HAS BEEN PICKED UP INTER-

NATIONALLY AND ADOPTED BY MANY

NATIONS.

I

T STATES THAT GLOBAL WARMING MUST BE KEPT

BELOW 2 °

C

^{TO ENABLE}

US TO SUCCESSFULLY DEAL WITH THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE

RISE IN TEMPERATURE.

I

AM REALLY CONCERNED THAT THE PROGRESS

WE HAVE MADE INTERNATIONALLY IS NOT

AS SUBSTANTIAL AS IT NEEDS TO BE.

A

COMPARISON:

I

F THE TEMPERATURE OF THE HUMAN BODY INCREASES

BY ONLY 2 °

C

^{, WE}

CALL IT FEVER.

I

F THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 40

°

C

, ONE ORGAN AFTER THE OTHER BREAKS DOWN, AND FINALLY THE WHOLE HUMAN

SYSTEM COLLAPSES.

GREENHOUSE EFFECT

20

F

IRST OF ALL WE HAVE TO

*DECARBONIZE THE ENERGY SYSTEMS WORLDWIDE, WHICH MEANS REPLACING FOSSIL RESOURCES WITH RENEWABLE ONES IN ORDER

TO LIMIT GLOBAL WARMING TO A MAXIMUM OF 2 °

C

.

T

HIS WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON IS PREPARED TO QUESTION HIS OR HER WAY OF LIFE.

I

N ORDER TO BE

ABLE TO STAY WITHIN THE GUARD RAILS, WE HAVE TO PUT THINGS

ON THE RIGHT TRACK IN THIS DECADE!

C

LIMATE

C

HANGE IN PARTICULAR HAS A VERY LONG »BRAKING

DISTANCE« AND MUST THEREFORE

BE LIMITED IMMEDIATELY.

S

UCH FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES OF CHANGE REQUIRE CREATIVITY AND INNOVATION.

A

ND – ABOVE ALL – A WORLD SOCIETY OF GLOBAL CITIZENS THAT

PRESSES AHEAD WITH SOLVING PROBLEMS WHICH CANNOT BE SOLVED BY SINGLE COUNTRIES.

F

OR TOMORROW‘S GLOBAL SOCIETY THE SAME APPLIES

AS FOR TODAY‘S NATIONAL SOCIETIES, NAMELY THAT THE RIGHTS OF FUTURE GENERATIONS MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.

I

N MY LECTURES

I

ALWAYS ASK THREE SPECIFIC QUESTIONS:

D

O YOU BELIEVE THAT YOU ARE BETTER

OFF THAN YOUR GRANDPARENTS WERE IN

THEIR TIME?

D

O YOU THINK YOUR GRANDCHILDREN WILL BE BETTER OFF THAN YOU ARE NOW?

D

O YOU THINK THIS IS OKAY?

22

S

INCE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEONE SPEAKING FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS,

I

HAVE REPEATEDLY SUGGESTED APPOINTING OMBUDSPEOPLE TO

REPRESENT THOSE WHO DO NOT YET HAVE A VOTE IN PARLIAMENT.

T

HIS WOULD BE AN

EXTENSION OF DEMOCRACY.

T

HE PAST SHOWS THAT PEOPLE AND ENTIRE CIVILIZATIONS HAVE THE ABILITY TO CHANGE.

F

^OR

INSTANCE, AROUND 11,000 YEARS AGO PEOPLE

STARTED TO PURSUE … … AGRICULTURE AND STOCK FARMING.

T

HEY CHANGED FROM A NOMADIC TO A SEDENTARY SOCIETY.

T

HIS ALSO BECAME

POSSIBLE BECAUSE THE CLIMATE HAD STABILIZED AND GROWN INTO A RELIABLE

FACTOR.

N

EOLITHIC

A

GE 11 000

Y

EARS

A

GO

S

TONE

A

GE

T

HIS WAS THE SO-CALLED

N

EOLITHIC

R

EVOLUTION.

T

HE SECOND GREAT CULTURAL CHANGE HAPPENED SOME 250 YEARS AGO: THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.

T

HIS WAS WHEN

THE AGE OF FOSSIL FUELS STARTED.

Chapter 2

PLANET EARTH IN

THE ANTHROPOCENE –

THE AGE OF HUMANS

R

EINHOLD

L

EINFELDER IS A GEOLOGIST AND PALAEONTOLOGIST FOCUSING ON GEOBIOLOGY,

A

NTHROPOCENE RESEARCH

AND KNOWLEDGE COMMUNICATION.

H

E WORKS AT THE

F

REE

U

NIVERSITY

B

ERLIN AND THE *

R

ACHEL

C

ARSON

C

ENTER

M

UNICH.

R

EINHOLD IS ON HIS WAY TO

F

RANKFURT.

W

HAT WE NEED NOW IS A THIRD GREAT REVOLUTION – THE *

G

REAT

T

RANSFORMATION TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY.

T

HE HUMAN-INDUCED IMPACT ON THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON SUCH HUGE PROPORTIONS THAT MANY SCIENTISTS SUPPORT THE SUGGESTION

MADE BY

N

OBEL

P

RIZE

W

INNER

P

AUL

C

RUTZEN:

TO REGARD THE INDUSTRIAL PRESENT AS A NEW GEOLOGICAL ERA ...

... AS THE *

A

NTHROPOCENE, THE ‘

A

GE OF

M

ANKIND’.

P

AUL

C

RUTZEN

26

F

OR MILLENNIA, HUMANS

HAVE REBELLED AGAINST THE SUPERPOWER WE

CALL ’

N

ATURE‘.

I

N THE 19TH AND 20TH CENTURIES, NEW TECHNOLOGIES, FOSSIL FUELS

AND A FAST-GROWING POPULATION LED TO HUGE CHANGES IN THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM.

W

E TOOK CONTROL OF NATURE – INCLUDING THE CLIMATE, THE ENVIRONMENT, EVEN

DNA

.

T

ODAY, WE NO LONGER LIVE IN

’BIOMES‘, I.E. NATURAL HABITATS, ...

... BUT IN ’ANTHROMES‘: HUMAN-MADE CULTURAL LANDSCAPES.

O

VER-RIPE FRUIT ’

A

NTI-MUSH GENE‘

L

ONG-LASTING FRUIT

M

ORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE ICE-FREE LANDMASS OF THE

E

^{ARTH IS}

AFFECTED.

T

HE BARRIERS BETWEEN NATURE AND CULTIVATED LAND THAT WERE MAINTAINED FOR SO MANY YEARS ARE COLLAPSING.

W

E DECIDE WHAT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF NATURE ARE AND WHAT NATURE WILL BE IN THE FUTURE.

T

HIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE A GREAT RESPONSIBILITY AND MUST NOT ONLY THINK ABOUT OURSELVES, BUT

LONG-TERM, I.E. ALSO FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS.

A

ND WHAT CAN

I

EXPECT DOWN THERE?

T

HE *

WWF

HAS CALCULATED THAT, IF WE CONTINUE OUR

*BUSINESS-AS-USUAL PATH, WE WILL NEED TWO

E

^ARTHS

TO MEET OUR RESOURCE NEEDS, POSSIBLY AS EARLY

AS 2030.

A

^{REA OF}

L

^AND

NOT CHANGED CHANGED

B

Y

H

UMANS

28

F

ORESTS, SAVANNAS AND GRASSLANDS ARE DISAPPEARING AT INCREASING SPEED AS THEY

ARE CLEARED AND PLOUGHED UNDER FOR AGRICULTURE.

T

HE GROWING DEMANDS OF A GROWING WORLD POPULATION MEAN THAT MORE AND MORE FARMING LAND

IS NEEDED, BECAUSE MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE EATING MORE AND

MORE ANIMAL FOODSTUFFS.

M

EAT PRODUCTION DEVOURS HUGE QUANTITIES OF VEGETABLE FEED AND

WATER.

Source: UNEP 2011

INCREASE OF THE WORLD POPULATION AND THE PRODUCTION OF MEAT, FISH AND

SEAFOOD

30

20

10

0

1992 1997

FISH AND SEAFOOD +32%

M^{EAT +26%}

WORLD POPULA TION +22%

2002 2007

T

HE EXPANSION OF AREAS UNDER CULTIVATION BY DEFORESTATION AND OVERGRAZING IS LEADING TO

SOIL DEGRADATION.

W

E LOSE UP TO 24 MILLION TONNES OF SURFACE

SOIL EVERY YEAR AS A RESULT OF EROSION –

T

HE

S

OIL OF AN AREA THE SIZE OF

S

WITZERLAND.

A

ND

THIS IS IRREVERSIBLE.

*

S

ALINIZATION AND

*DESERTIFICATION ARE FURTHER CONSEQUENCES

OF OVERUSE.

T

HE PROBLEM HAS BECOME ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN

C

^HINA.

S

EVERAL TIMES A YEAR, WHEN STORMS BLOW DESERT SAND INTO

B

EIJING FROM THE

NORTH, THE ALARM IS SOUNDED IN THE CITY BECAUSE OF THE RISK OF

RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.

T

HE DEVASTATION OF SUCH LARGE TRACTS OF LAND THERE HAD TAKEN ON SUCH PROPORTIONS THAT THE GOVERNMENT LAUNCHED A GIGANTIC REAFFORESTATION PROGRAMME IN 1970.

A

BELT OF FOREST ALMOST 4,500 KM LONG IS BEING PLANTED IN A TOTAL OF 13 PROVINCES. 35 MILLION HECTARES OF FOREST ARE TO BE PLANTED OVER A PERIOD OF ALMOST 80 YEARS.

T

HAT‘S AN AREA ABOUT THE SIZE OF

G

ERMANY.

30

W

E’RE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO REALIZE THAT MANY OF THE RAW MATERIALS WE USE ARE FINITE.

O

RES, CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS ARE THE BEST KNOWN

EXAMPLES.

A

S LATE AS 2004 IT WAS BELIEVED THE EXTRACTION OF CRUDE OIL WOULD PEAK IN 2007.

A

LTHOUGH NEW RESOURCES ARE BEING TAPPED ALL THE TIME BY NEW TECHNOLOGIES, E.G. *FRACKING, THEY ALL TEND TO INVOLVE IMMEN-

SE ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE.

W

E NEED LITHIUM FOR BATTERIES AND *RARE EARTHS

AND METALS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION.

W

E EXTRACT THEM FROM CONCENTRATED DEPOSITS ...

... AND SPREAD THEM ALL OVER THE WORLD WHEN WE DISPOSE OF ELECTRONIC WASTE AND EXCAVATED MATERIAL.

CONVENTIONAL CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN BILLIONS OF BARRELS

1930 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

1940

*US 48 EUROPE RUSSIA OTHERS MIDDLE EAST HEAVY OIL DEEP SEA ARCTIC/ANTARCTIC

Source: ASPO 2004 NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

I

N ADDITION, CORAL REEFS AND MANGROVES ARE BEING DESTROYED, LAKES OVER- FERTILIZED, RIVERS PAVED OVER, AND FISH

STOCKS MERCILESSLY OVER-FISHED.

M

ILLIONS OF TONNES OF POINTLESSLY KILLED FISH AND OTHER CREATURES, SO-

CALLED ‘BY-CATCH’, ARE SIMPLY THROWN OVERBOARD.

A

LL THIS CAUSES A MASSIVE LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY.

T

ODAY WE ARE DEALING WITH AN EXTINCTION EVENT

COMPARABLE TO THE ONE THAT TOOK PLACE 65 MILLION YEARS AGO, WHEN

ALL THE DINOSAURS AND HALF OF ALL THE OTHER ANIMALS DISAPPEARED FROM THE FACE OF THE

E

ARTH.

32

F

^RANKFURT

P

ANAMA

W

E WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE ISSUE OF WATER IN A DIFFERENT FORM, BECAUSE IT’S NOT ONLY GETTING SCARCER, IT’S ALSO BEING POLLUTED

BY INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE AND HOUSEHOLDS.

A

THIRD OF HUMANITY IS AFFECTED BY *WATER SCARCITY, AND ABOUT 800 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE NO ACCESS

TO SAFE DRINKING WATER ...

... WHILE OTHERS HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO BATHE IN.

LITTLE OR NO WATER SCARCITY

LOOMING PHYSICAL WATER SCARCITY

PHYSICAL WATER SCARCITY

ECONOMIC WATER SCARCITY NO DATA AVAILABLE

Source: UNESCO 2009

H

OW DEATH ZONES ARE FORMED HEAT

SALT WATER

SALT WATER

DEAD ALGAE DEATH ZONE

LOW-OXYGEN SALT WATER

Source: The Times Picayune 2007

Source: Nasa / Earth Observatory 2008 OXYGEN

LIVING ORGANISMS

DEATH ZONES IN EUROPE

THE WARMING OF THE OCEAN MAKES THE LAYERS OF WATER MORE STABLE; THIS PREVENTS OXYGEN FROM THE AIR PENETRATING TO DEEPER REGIONS OF THE SEA. WARM, FRESH WATER FROM RIVER ESTUARIES REINFORCES

THIS EFFECT.

NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS FROM FERTILIZERS AND SEWAGE CAUSE ALGAE TO GROW QUICKLY. DEAD ALGAE SINK AND DECOMPOSE. AS A RESULT, OXYGEN IS ALSO

CONSUMED IN DEEPER LAYERS.

THE OXYGEN IS COMPLETELY USED UP – DEATH ZONES FORM WHERE FISH AND

MICRO-ORGANISMS DIE EN MASSE.

FRESH WATER ALGAL

BLOOMS

DYING FISH

FRESH WATER FRESH WATER

N

ITROGEN FERTILIZERS AND PHOSPHATES – ESSENTIAL FOR FOOD PRODUCTION – ARE PUTTING IMMENSE STRAIN ON OUR ECOSYSTEMS.

A

LMOST HALF OF THEM END UP IN THE OCEAN, AND THERE THEY LEAD TO THE CREATION OF LOW-OXYGEN DEATH ZONES, WHICH ARE UNINHABITABLE FOR

MOST ORGANISMS.

O

NE OF THE BIGGEST UNDERWATER DESERTS IS IN THE

B

ALTIC

S

EA.

G

LOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES CAN MUTUALLY REINFORCE OR WEAKEN EACH OTHER.

B

UT THE MOST COMMON EFFECT IS MUTUAL REINFORCEMENT.

I

T TRIGGERS ABRUPT, NON-LINEAR

CHANGES IN ESSENTIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM.

B

^{OCAS DEL}

T

^ORO,

P

^ANAMA

34

W

HEN THE CHANGES BECOME TOO BIG, SYSTEMS CAN COLLAPSE; WE THEN

SPEAK OF *TIPPING POINTS IN THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM.

O

NE OF THE MOST DRAMATIC EXAMPLES OF A HUMAN- ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM THAT HAS REACHED A TIPPING POINT

IS THE HEAT COLLAPSE OF TROPICAL CORAL REEFS.

R

EINHOLD EXAMINES THE BIODIVERSITY AND HEALTH

OF REEFS.

C

ORAL REEFS ARE BY FAR THE MOST BIODIVERSE ECOSYSTEMS IN THE OCEAN.

A

T THE SAME TIME, THEY ARE UNDER THREAT FROM

WARMING, SEA-LEVEL RISE, ACIDIFICATION, OVERFISHING AND OVER-FERTILIZATION.

F

OR A LONG TIME, NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE REEF WAS NOTICEABLE.

B

UT IF TOO MANY FACTORS COME TOGETHER

FOR TOO LONG, THE TIPPING POINT IS EXCEEDED.

T

HE CHANGES TRIGGERED BY THIS TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR

OWN AND CAN NOW NO LONGER BE INFLUENCED BY HUMANITY.

A

LMOST ALL REEFS MAY BE DESTROYED IN 30–50 YEARS BECAUSE MANY CORALS CANNOT SURVIVE AT HIGHER WATER TEMPERATURES.

T

HE RAMIFICATIONS FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND FISH STOCKS ARE VAST: REEFS ARE INDISPENSABLE

FOR SUPPLYING FOOD FOR MILLIONS OF PEOPLE.

T

IPPING POINTS IN A CORAL REEF:

A

)

I

F A HEALTHY REEF IS STRESSED, IT CAN LOSE ITS EQUILIBRIUM; USUALLY, HOWEVER, IT FINDS ITS WAY BACK ON ITS OWN.

B

)

I

F THE ECOSYSTEM IS DISRUPTED FOR A LONG TIME (E.G. BY OVERFISHING), ALGAE ARE NO LONGER EATEN OFF; THE TIPPING POINT IS PASSED AND THE CORAL REEF BECOMES AN ALGAL REEF.

C

⁾

T

HE REEF EVENTUALLY DIES.

HEAT, STORMS ETC.

’NATURAL‘ STRESS

A) HEALTHY REEF

B) ALGAL REEF

C) DEAD REEF

’ARTIFICIAL‘ STRESS AS A RESULT OF PERMANENT

OVER-FERTILIZATION, OVERFISHING, ACIDIFICATION, ETC.

CHAPTER 3

HOT STUFF: CLIMATE CHANGE

S

TEFAN

R

AHMSTORF IS

P

ROFESSOR OF

P

HYSICS OF THE

O

CEANS AT

P

OTSDAM

U

NIVERSITY AND HEAD OF

E

ARTH

S

YSTEM

A

NALYSIS AT THE

P

OTSDAM

I

NSTITUTE FOR

C

LIMATE

I

MPACT

R

ESEARCH.

H

IS RESEARCH FOCUSES ON THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS IN

CLIMATE CHANGE.

T

HE RESEARCH SHIP

S

TANLEY

R

.

R

IGGS IS IN

R

OANOKE

S

OUND BY THE

O

UTER

B

ANKS NEAR

N

AG‘S

H

EAD,

N

ORTH

C

AROLINA,

USA

.

H

UMANITY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE WE ARE EXPERIENCING TODAY.

F

IRSTLY AS A RESULT OF THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS; SECONDLY AS A RESULT OF

DEFORESTATION.

T

HERE IS A SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS ON THE BASIC FACTS

AND FIGURES ABOUT HUMAN- INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE; BY NOW IT IS ALSO ACCEPTED AT ALL

POLITICAL LEVELS.

S

TEFAN IS TAKING SOIL SAMPLES FROM A LAYER OF PEAT SEVERAL METRES THICK TO STUDY HOW THE SEA LEVEL HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST

MILLENNIA.

PACIFIC

ATLANTIC

NAG’S HEAD

NORTH CAROLINA

38

W

HEN THERE IS NO HUMAN INTERFERENCE, THE *CARBON CYCLE IS IN EQUILIBRIUM.

H

^OWEVER,

OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS IS INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF

ATMOSPHERIC CARBON BY 5 GIGATONNES A YEAR.

T

HE CONCENTRATION OF

CO

2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY SINCE CA. 1850, FROM 280 PPM (A TYPICAL VALUE FOR WARM INTERGLACIAL PERIODS) TO OVER 390 PPM.

CO

2 IS A RADIATIVE FORCING GAS: THE HIGHER ITS CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE MORE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE.

I

^{F THE}

CO

²

CONTENT IN THE AIR DOUBLES, THE AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISES BY 2-4°

C

.

S

UNLIGHT SHINES ON THE

E

ARTH.

A

THIRD OF IT IS REFLECTED, THE REST IS CONVERTED INTO HEAT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND ON THE

E

ARTH’S SURFACE.

T

HE

E

ARTH CAN ONLY GET RID OF HEAT BY RADIATING IT BACK OUT

INTO SPACE.

H

OWEVER, GREENHOUSE GASES PREVENT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM

LETTING LONG-WAVE THERMAL RADIATION THROUGH.

A

^{LOT OF}

THE RADIATION EMITTED FROM THE SURFACE IS ABSORBED AND

RERADIATED BACK DOWN.

G

LOBAL ENERGY FLOWS AND GREENHOUSE-GAS EFFECT, DATA IN

W

ATTS/M²

CARBON (C) FLOWS IN GIGATONNES (GT) PER ANNUM (BOLD TYPE: TOTAL AMOUNTS OF STORED

CARBON IN GT)

FOSSILE FUELS

> 12 000

SOILS 1500 LAND PLANTS

560

TOTAL OCEAN + 2 GT C/A

MIXED LAYER 900

*SEDIMENTATION 0,1 MARINE SEDIMENTS 30 MILLION

MEDIUM AND GREAT DEPTHS

37 000

REFLECTED S^OLAR RADIATION

INCOMING SOLAR

RADIATION ESCAPING

LONG-W RADIATIONAVE

ABSORBED BY THE ATMOSPHERE

*ATMOSPHERIC WINDOW GREENHOUSE

GASES

BACK- RADIATION EMITTED BY THE

ATMOSPHERE

*LATENT HEAT REFLECTED BY

CLOUDS, *AEROSOLS AND THE ATMOSPHERE

79

REFLECTED BY THE SURFACE 23

ABSORBED BY THE SURFACE

*NET ABSORPTION 1 W/M²

*CONVECTION *EVAPO-

RATION RADIATION BY

THE SURFACE ABSORBED BY THE SURFACE 102

79 341

161 17 78

80

30 40

40

80 396

333 333 356

169 239

17 9

60 60

92 90 1

123

*NET DESTRUCTION OF VEGETATION

Source: WBGU 2012

Data: IPCC 2007 ATMOSPHERE

830 = 390 *PPM CO2 +5 GT C/A

^

I

F WE DO NOT CHANGE OUR WAYS SOON, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES

TO INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE OF 4-7°

C

OVER THE NEXT 100 YEARS.

B

Y TAKING RESOLUTE MEASURES TO PROTECT THE CLIMATE, WE COULD LIMIT WARMING TO 2°

C

, BUT ONLY IF WE START TAKING ACTION STRAIGHT AWAY.

B

Y WAY OF COMPARISON, THE LAST GREAT GLOBAL WARMING TOOK PLACE AT THE END OF THE LAST

I

CE

A

GE APPROXIMATELY 15,000 YEARS AGO.

O

VER A PERIOD OF 5,000 YEARS THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ROSE BY APPROXIMATELY 5°

C

.

A

N UNLIMITED MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING COULD REACH SUCH A SCALE IN A FRACTION OF

THAT TIME – AND IT’S STARTING FROM A CLIMATE THAT’S ALREADY WARM.

I

CE-COVERED REGIONS DURING THE

P

LEISTOCENE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

WARMING RELATIVE TO PRE-INDUSTRIAL PERIOD (°C)

SUCCESSFUL CLIMATE PROTECTION BUSINESS AS USUAL

Source: Nature 2009

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

1900 2000 2100 2200 2300

40

T

HE EXACT COORDINATES AND ELEVATION OF THE SITE ARE

DETERMINED USING

GPS

AND LASERS.

T

HE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE IS RELATIVELY EASY TO PREDICT, BUT IT’S MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE EFFECTS OF WARMING ON THE ICE MASSES, THE SEA LEVEL OR VEGETATION.

R

EGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN WARMING, ASSUMING A MEAN GLOBAL WARMING OF ABOUT 4°

C

UP UNTIL THE END OF THE CENTURY.

T

HE CONTINENTS AND POLAR REGIONS ARE THE MOST SERIOUSLY AFFECTED.

T

HE EVIDENCE FOR THE IMPACT OF OUR GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ON THE CLIMATE IS BASED ON DECADES OF RESEARCH

WORK AND THOUSANDS OF STUDIES.

I

^T‘S

PRACTICALLY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THIS COULD ALL BE SUDDENLY OVERTURNED BY NEW

RESULTS.

Source: IPCC 2007 0 2 4 6 8

°C

S

TEFAN COMES ON BOARD TO TAKE SEDIMENT CORES IN THE LAGOON.

A

ND THE *TIPPING ELEMENTS MAKE LIFE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT FOR US: CERTAIN REGIONS OR PROCESSES REACT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVELY AND ACT AS SELF-REINFORCING ELEMENTS IN THE SYSTEM.

W

HEN THE HIGHLY REFLECTIVE ICE SURFACES MELT, THIS REVEALS THE DARK OCEAN, WHICH ABSORBS MUCH MORE SOLAR HEAT AND FURTHER

ACCELERATES THE MELTING.

O

THER TIPPING ELEMENTS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO CALCULATE.

F

OR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE *PERMAFROST IN

S

IBERIA THAWS, IT RELEASES METHANE, WHICH IS A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE GREENHOUSE GAS

THAN

CO

2 – BUT NO ONE YET KNOWS TO WHAT EXTENT AND WITH WHAT CONSEQUENCES.

J

UST ONE EXAMPLE: HALF OF THE SUMMER SEA-ICE COVER ON THE

A

^RCTIC

O

CEAN HAS ALREADY DISAPPEARED.

COMPARISON OF THE EXTENT OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE IN 1979 AND 2012

42

A

ND THE GLACIERS

ARE ALSO DISAPPEARING RAPIDLY ALL OVER

THE WORLD.

Y

OU CAN READ HOW SEA LEVELS HAVE CHANGED FROM PEAT DEPOSITS IN

COASTAL SALT MARSHES.

A

COLLEAGUE WINCHES THE CORE SAMPLES OUT OF THE WATER.

MISSISSIPPI RIO GRIJALVA

ORINOCO AMAZON

RHINE SEBOU

NILE SCHATT-

AL-ARAB GANGES-

BRAHMAPUTRA JANGTSEKIANG

COASTAL DELTAS MOST SERIOUSLY THREATENED

BY FLOODING

EXTREME RISK SERIOUS RISK MEDIUM RISK RED RIVER

MEKONG MAHAKAM CHAO

PHRAYA

ZHUJIANG MOULOUYA

SENEGAL VOLTA

NIGER

INDUS MAHANADI GODAVARI

KRISHNA

RIO SÃO FRANCISCO

M

ANY OF TODAY’S MEGACITIES ARE SITUATED IN ESTUARIES, MAKING THEM PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE.

I

N SOME WAYS, THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE COMING FASTER THAN EXPECTED.

F

OR EXAMPLE, THE MELTING

OF SEA ICE AND ICE SHEETS WAS UNDERESTIMATED, AS WAS THE RISE IN THE

SEA LEVEL.

T

HE

M

UELLER

G

LACIER IN

N

EW

Z

EALAND.

T

HE LINE SHOWS THE EXPANSE OF THE GLACIER 100 YEARS AGO.

Source: IPCC 2007

SEA LEVEL OVER 2000 YEARS

0 + 0,6 - 0,1

0 500 1000 1500 2000

+ 2,1

SEA LEVEL (METRES)

SEA LEVEL RISE (MM/YEAR)

E

VEN IF WE MANAGE TO GREATLY REDUCE GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS AND LIMIT GLOBAL WARMING TO 2°

C

, THE SEA LEVEL

IS LIKELY TO RISE MORE THAN 1 METRE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR

THREE CENTURIES.

D

URING THE

M

EDIEVAL

W

ARM

P

ERIOD, THE SEA LEVEL ROSE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE YEARS 1000 AND 1400.

T

HEN IT WAS STABLE FOR SEVERAL CENTURIES, UNTIL THE END OF

THE 19TH CENTURY; SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN THIS STEEP RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE

CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING.

0,2

0,0

-0,2

44

T

HIS PUTS COASTAL CITIES AND LOW-LYING ISLANDS AT RISK.

H

URRICANES LIKE

S

ANDY, WHICH HIT

N

^EW

Y

^{ORK IN}

O

^CTOBER

2012 – CAUSING DEVASTATING DAMAGE, FLOODED ROADS AND SUBWAYS, POWER FAILURES AND MANY DEATHS – HIGHLIGHT THE URGENCY OF THE PROBLEM.

B

ECAUSE COASTAL FLOODING FROM HURRICANES WILL GET WORSE AS THE SEA LEVEL RISES.

T

HE RISK OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IS ALSO INCREASING.

T

HE NUMBER OF FLOODS, DROUGHTS AND FOREST FIRES

WILL INCREASE WORLDWIDE.

S

TEFAN ON HIS WAY TO A WORKSHOP ON COASTAL PROTECTION IN

N

AG’S

H

EAD.

F

OREST FIRES IN

S

PAIN 2012

F

LOODING IN SOUTHERN

R

USSIA 2012

A

ND OF COURSE, THIS HAS AN EFFECT ON THE WATER SUPPLY AND FOOD SECURITY.

B

OTH THE MODELS AND THE DATA SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE

STRENGTH, AND POSSIBLY ALSO IN THE FREQUENCY, OF HURRICANES AS

A RESULT OF HIGHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

E

XTREME DROUGHT IN THE

USA

2012

H

URRICANE

K

ATRINA IN THE

USA

IN 2005

46

N

AG’S

H

EAD

A

LTHOUGH GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION DOES NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO DECLINE IN WARMER CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, SOME HARVESTS WILL BE LOST IN POORER AND WARMER COUNTRIES

AS A RESULT OF WATER SCARCITY AND

WEATHER EXTREMES.

T

HE WATER SUPPLY IN

L

IMA IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE

A

NDEAN GLACIERS.

W

HILE THE POPULATION IS GROWING, THE GLACIERS ARE MELTING, AND NO ONE

CAN STOP THEM.

I

F THE MOUNTAIN GLACIERS DISAPPEAR,

THIS WILL THREATEN WATER SUPPLIES TO MAJOR CITIES LIKE

L

IMA.

T

ODAY AT 9 AM,

S

TAKEHOLDER

W

^ORKSHOP

S

^EA-

L

^EVEL

V

ENICE 2012

A

T PRESENT, THE SEA LEVELS ARE RISING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 3 CM PER DECADE.

B

UT IF GLOBAL WARMING CONTINUES, THIS RATE WILL SPEED UP, SIMPLY BECAUSE THE ICE MASSES MELT FASTER THE

WARMER IT BECOMES.

I

T COULD REACH 10 CM PER DECADE.

T

^HAT

WOULD MAKE IT A LOT MORE DIFFICULT FOR US HUMANS TO ADAPT TO SEA-LEVEL RISE.

CO

2 ACCUMULATES IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECAUSE OF ITS LONG LIFESPAN, SO THAT

FURTHER WARMING CAN ONLY BE PREVENTED IF WE

GET OUR ENERGY FROM A DIFFERENT SOURCE.

*

S

TAKEHOLDERS WORKSHOP,

N

AG’S

H

EAD 2012:

S

TEFAN TALKS WITH REPRESENTATIVES

OF THE PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL AUTHORITIES AND OTHER GROUPS WHO ARE INTERESTED IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND COASTAL

PROTECTION.

I

T‘S NOT EASY TO PREDICT THE EXACT CONSEQUENCES OF SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE CLIMATE, SO SURPRISES

ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

CHAPTER 4

WE’RE NOT THAT STUPID.

A GLANCE INTO THE PAST

D

IRK

M

ESSNER IS DIRECTOR OF THE *

G

ERMAN

D

EVELOPMENT

I

NSTITUTE (

DIE

) IN

B

ONN, CO- DIRECTOR OF THE *

C

ENTRE FOR

A

DVANCED

S

TUDIES ON

G

LOBAL

C

OOPERATION

R

ESEARCH,

D

UISBURG, AND DEPUTY CHAIR OF THE

WBGU

.

D

IRK‘S CHAUFFEUR DROPS HIM OFF AT THE

I

NSTITUTE.

A

ND DON‘T FORGET, THE NEW CAR IS BEING

DELIVERED TODAY.

I

N THE

G

LOBAL

G

OVERNANCE

S

CHOOL AT THE

G

ERMAN

D

EVELOPMENT

I

NSTITUTE,

D

IRK HAS BEEN TRAINING SCIENTISTS AND PRACTIONERS FROM EIGHT *EMERGING ECONOMIES

SINCE 2007.

O

H!

H

OPE IT‘S NOT ONE OF THOSE ELECTRIC THINGS;

I

TOLD YOU BEFORE THERE‘S NO WAY

I

‘M GOING TO DRIVE

ONE OF THOSE.

T

O MAKE SURE THAT THE AMOUNTS OF

CO

2 DON‘T KEEP ON INCREASING, IT‘S ESSENTIAL TO DECOUPLE GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FROM GREENHOUSE- GAS EMISSIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FIELDS OF ENERGY

SUPPLY, URBANIZATION AND LAND USE.

50

T

HERE ARE NO ESTABLISHED ROLE MODELS FOR THIS GREAT TRANSFORMATION TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY, BECAUSE COMPARABLE SOCIETAL SHIFTS HAVE BEEN EVOLUTIONARY, I.E. THEY DEVELOPED FROM

HISTORY.

A

^{BOUT 9000}

BCE

HUMANS STARTED TO DOMESTICATE ANIMALS AND TO GROW CROPS.

T

HIS ENABLED THEM TO

SETTLE DOWN.

W

HEN THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION BEGAN OVER 250 YEARS AGO, HUMANS NUMBERED

ABOUT 1 BILLION AND ONLY EXERTED A MARGINAL AND LOCALLY LIMITED INFLUENCE

ON THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM.

S

LASH-AND-BURN FARMING IN

F

INLAND AROUND 1887.

T

HE EFFECTS ON THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM

WERE STILL MANAGEABLE AT THAT TIME.

T

ODAY, HUMANS ARE THE BIGGEST GEOLOGICAL FORCE IN THE

E

ARTH

SYSTEM.

GLOBAL POPULATION

GROWTH IN BILLIONS

Source: UN 2012

0.98 BILLION

1800 1950 2000 2012

2.52 BILLION 6.1 BILLION

7 BILLION

REST OF THE WORLD

CHANGE OF VIEW

T

HE WORLD ECONOMY IS CHANGING RADICALLY. 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE BELONGED TO THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS IN 1989, WITH 80% OF THEM LIVING IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES.

B

^{Y 2030}

THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS WILL NUMBER ABOUT 5 BILLION PEOPLE, AND 80% OF THEM WILL BE LIVING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND EMERGING ECONOMIES.

I

F THERE IS NO

T

RANSFORMATION TO SUSTAINABILITY, THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND WILL LEAD TO THE DEGRADATION OF THE NATURAL LIFE-

SUPPORT SYSTEMS.

T

HE ’DISCOVERY‘ OF A LIFESTYLE THAT IS CONSCIOUSLY GEARED TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY

IS COMPARABLE TO THE ADVENT OF THE

E

NLIGHTENMENT IN THE 17TH CENTURY.

B

OTH CONCEPTS CALL FOR AN EXTENSIVE REORGANIZATION OF THE SOCIETY IN WHICH THEY

EMERGED.

T

HE RECOVERY OF EMERGING ECONOMIES DIFFERENT REGIONS’ PERCENTAGE SHARES OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

MIDDLE EAST

USA JAPAN

RUSSIA

INDIA WESTERN EUROPE

CHINA

FORECAST 1700

% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1978 2003 2008 2015 2030 2050

Source: Die ZEIT 2008

52

I

MMANUEL

K

ANT DESCRIBED

THE

E

NLIGHTENMENT AS AN ESSENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WAY PEOPLE THINK, A NEW ERA FOR MANKIND IN WHICH THE NORMATIVE FOUNDATIONS

OF HUMAN COEXISTENCE ARE REVOLUTIONIZED.

T

^HE

PERSPECTIVE FROM WHICH PEOPLE JUDGED THEMSELVES

AND THEIR SOCIETIES HAD FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED.

E

NLIGHTENMENT IS THE HUMAN BEING‘S EMERGENCE FROM HIS SELF-INCURRED MINORITY.

A

S HUMANS WE MUST TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE STABILITY OF

THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM.

I

S ALL THIS

POSSIBLE?

S

O THEREFORE, WE

NEED TO COOPERATE GLOBALLY.

W

E NEED A GLOBAL SENSE OF COMMUNITY, A

’WE-IDENTITY‘.

W

E MUST INVENT A PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION MODEL FOR 9 BILLION PEOPLE – WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE

E

ARTH SYSTEM.

A

RELIGIOUS VIEW OF THE WORLD VERSUS A KNOWLEDGE-BASED VIEW OF THE WORLD

T

HE

E

NLIGHTENMENT WAS ABOUT THE INALIENABLE RIGHTS OF ’HUMAN RACE‘; YET

FOR MANY

E

NLIGHTENMENT THINKERS SLAVES WERE NOT

PART OF IT.

M

ANY PROPONENTS OF THE

E

NLIGHTENMENT WERE FANTASTIC FUTURE-ORIENTED MINDS AND VISIONARIES, BUT THEY WERE ALSO CHILDREN OF THEIR TIME.

S

LAVERY IS AN EXAMPLE OF THIS CONTRADICTION.

T

HE

US C

ONSTITUTION OF 1787 BEGINS WITH THE FAMOUS FORMULA ’WE THE PEOPLE‘ – YET SLAVERY REMAINED PART OF SOCIETAL REALITY IN THE

USA

FOR ANOTHER EIGHT DECADES ... ... AND ULTIMATELY LED TO THE

A

MERICAN

C

IVIL

W

AR OF 1861-1865.

D

ENIS

D

IDEROT (1713-1784)

V

OLTAIRE (1694-1778)

J

EAN-

J

ACQUES

R

OUSSEAU

(1712-1778)

I

MMANUEL

K

ANT (1724-1804)

M

^ONTESQUIEU

(1689-1755)

D

^AVID

H

UME (1711-1776)

54

R

IO DE

J

ANEIRO,

J

UNE 2012

S

O IT’S A LONG, HARD ROAD WITH MANY SETBACKS FROM A SOPHISTICATED PHILOSOPHY AND IDEA TO SOCIETAL REALITY.

L

INEAR PROGRESS IS UNKNOWN

IN WORLD HISTORY.

S

EEN FROM THIS PERSPECTIVE, THE SUSTAINABILITY PARADIGM HAS HAD A BREATHTAKING CAREER.

E

VEN THOUGH THE *

UN C

ONFERENCE ON

S

USTAINABLE

D

EVELOPMENT IN

R

IO MUST BE REGARDED AS A FAILURE.

N

OTHING IS LEFT OF THE SPIRIT OF CHANGE AT THE FIRST *

E

^ARTH

S

^UMMIT

OF 1992.

T

HE FINAL DECLARATION DID NOT GENERATE FRESH IMPETUS, AND THE LARGE

NUMBER OF PROBLEMS ADDRESSED HAD THE EFFECT THAT NOT A SINGLE ONE WAS RESOLUTELY TACKLED.

Y

OU COULD REALLY SPEAK OF A

R

IO

M

INUS 20 CONFERENCE.

H

OWEVER, SCIENTISTS, THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND CIVIL SOCIETY ARE MORE ADVANCED AND MORE MATURE THAN POLITICAL LEADERS IN

W

ASHINGTON,

B

^RUSSELS,

B

^ERLIN,

N

^EW

D

^{ELHI AND}

B

^EIJING.

T

HIS WAS SHOWN BY THE CONFERENCE PROGRAMME IN

R

^IO.

T

HE TRANSFORMATION TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY IS NOT A FUTURE PROJECT: IT‘S ALREADY IN FULL

SWING.

W

IND FARM AT

L

AKE

T

URKANA IN

K

ENYA

F

OR EXAMPLE, IN

R

^{IO DE}

J

ANEIRO OVER 50 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN CONCERT WITH MANY PRIVATE COMPANIES COMMITTED THEMSELVES TO AMBITIOUS INITIATIVES FOR MORE SUSTAINABILITY IN THE

ENERGY SECTOR.

T

HESE INCLUDED COUNTRIES LIKE

G

HANA,

B

ANGLADESH,

I

NDIA AND

M

OROCCO.

P

ETER

A

LTMAIER, GERMAN FEDERAL MINISTER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT

R

AJENDRA

K

UMAR

P

ACHAURI, CHAIR OF THE *INTERGOVERNMENTAL

PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

J

ENNIFER

M

ORGAN, DIRECTOR OF THE CLIMATE AND ENERGY PROGRAMME AT THE *WORLD RESOURCES

INSTITUTE

I

F THE

G

ERMAN

*

E

NERGIEWENDE SUCCEEDS, IT COULD ENCOURAGE EMULATORS

WORLDWIDE.

56

A

GROUP OF

A

FRICAN GOVERNMENTS, THE

W

ORLD

B

ANK, MAJOR PRIVATE FOUNDATIONS LIKE

C

ONSERVATION

I

NTERNATIONAL AND CORPORATIONS IN TURN AGREED CONCRETE INITIATIVES TO PROTECT NATURAL ASSETS IN

A

FRICAN COUNTRIES.

P

ROJECTS LIKE THE CROSS-BORDER *

P

EACE

P

ARKS FOCUS ON ENVIRONMENTAL

PROTECTION AND ECOTOURISM.

T

HESE APPROACHES WERE FURTHER DEVELOPED IN

R

^IO.

S

OLAR ENERGY PLANT NEAR

M

OUNT

A

BU IN

R

AJASTHAN,

I

NDIA

K

ANDEH

K

.

Y

UMKELLA,

D

IRECTOR

G

ENERAL OF THE

U

NITED

N

ATIONS

I

NDUSTRIAL

D

EVELOPMENT

O

RGANIZATION (

UNIDO

)

C

ITIES FORGED ALLIANCES, AND CORPORATIONS

PRESENTED THE LATEST ENVIRONMENTAL

TECHNOLOGIES.

ANGOLA

ZAMBIA

Source: www.tfpd.co.za ZIMBABWE

BOTSWANA

SWAZILAND

LESOTHO

SOUTH AFRICA NAMIBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

KAVANGO ZAMBEZI

KGALAGADI

GREATER MAPUNGUBWE

GREAT LIMPOPO

LUBOMBO

MALOTI DRAKENSBERG AI-AIS-RICHTERSVELD

O

N THE POLITICAL LEVEL, THE

EU

AND THE

USA

ARE MUTUALLY BLOCKING EACH OTHER.

M

OREOVER, THERE ARE

TENSIONS BETWEEN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND EMERGING

ECONOMIES.

T

HE RESULT IS AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP AND CONFIDENCE, A *

G

-

Z

ERO WORLD IN WHICH NO LEADING POWER IS EFFECTIVELY TAKING THE INITIATIVE

AND NO COALITIONS CAPABLE OF TAKING ACTION ARE EMERGING.

58

H

^ELLO!

D

IRK MEETS

P

AN

J

IAHUA,

C

HINESE CLIMATE SCIENTIST AND THE MOST HIGHLY RANKING CONSULTANT IN THE FIELD OF CLIMATE PROTECTION.

C

URRENTLY THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS MIGHT BE REACHING A

TIPPING POINT.

O

N THE ONE HAND, THE CURRENT GROWTH MODEL IS HISTORICALLY LEGITIMIZED, AND IT SEEMS TO BE RESISTANT

TO CHANGE BECAUSE IT HAS LED TO ENORMOUS PROSPERITY IN MANY

COUNTRIES.

O

N THE OTHER HAND, THERE

IS A BROAD CONSENSUS THAT THIS RESOURCE-WASTING AND CLIMATE-DAMAGING PATH OF DEVELOPMENT NO LONGER OF- FERS A FUTURE FOR THE NEXT

GENERATION.

A

ND BECAUSE HARDLY ANYONE STILL BELIEVES

IN THE FUTURE VIABILITY OF THE FOSSIL-BASED SOCIETY, PROSPECTS FOR REFORMS ARE

EMERGING.

I

N ADDITION, WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGIES AND THE KNOWLEDGE FOR DESIGNING THE

TRANSFORMATION.

I

F

C

HINA AND

E

UROPE RESOLUTELY PURSUED A LOW-CARBON SOCIETY, THIS WOULD REPRESENT A BREAKTHROUGH AND OTHER COUNTRIES WOULD FOLLOW

SUIT.

M

ANY THINGS HAVE STARTED MOVING.

B

^UT

THE TRANSFORMATION TO A LOW-CARBON SOCIETY CAN ALSO BE FOILED BY THE SO- CALLED REBOUND EFFECT.

F

OR EXAMPLE, CARS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT, AND

CO

2 EMISSIONS

ARE BEING REDUCED; HOWEVER, SINCE THEIR NUMBER KEEPS GROWING FASTER AND FASTER, THE SAVINGS ARE IMMEDIATELY OFFSET OR EVEN EXCEEDED,

SO WE MUST REMAIN VIGILANT.

E

VERYONE, I.E. THE WHOLE OF SOCIETY, MUST ACCELERATE

THE TRANSFORMATION INTO A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY,

BECAUSE YOU CAN‘T NEGOTIATE WITH NATURE.

CHAPTER 5

TECHNICALLY, EVERYTHING IS

POSSIBLE

J

ÜRGEN

S

CHMID WAS THE DIRECTOR OF THE *

F

RAUNHOFER

I

NSTITUTE FOR

W

IND

E

NERGY AND

E

NERGY

S

YSTEM

T

ECHNOLOGY (

IWES

) IN

K

ASSEL UNTIL 2012.

A

LPHA

V

ENTUS, OFFSHORE TEST FACILITY FOR WIND TURBINES, 45 KM OFF

B

ORKUM IN THE

N

ORTH

S

EA.

T

HE DECARBONIZATION OF THE ENERGY SYSTEMS HAS BEEN

TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE FOR SOME TIME NOW.

O

NE OF THE

SOLUTIONS IS WIND ENERGY.

I

N THIS TEST FIELD MORE THAN 150 SCIENTISTS ARE EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF WIND, *WEATHER AND WAVES ON THE NACELLES, STEEL TOWERS AND ROTOR BLADES OF THE TURBINES, AND WHETHER THEY CAN WITHSTAND THE STRESSES FAR OUT TO SEA FOR 20 YEARS.

62

T

HE TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE USE OF

*RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY HAVE DEVELOPED MORE QUICKLY

THAN EXPECTED.

S

INCE WE ARE PURSUING VARIOUS DIFFERENT TECHNIQUES – I.E.

SOLAR, WIND, HYDROPOWER AND GEOTHERMAL ENERGY – AND THEIR

OVERALL POTENTIAL IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT IS NEEDED, WE CAN STILL ENSURE A 100% POWER SUPPLY EVEN IF ONE TECHNOLOGY CONTRIBUTES LESS OR NOTHING AT TIMES.

W

E CAN ACHIEVE THIS WITH SMART POWER GRIDS AND BY

STORING THE ELECTRICITY.

S

MART GRIDS CONTROL COMMUNICATION BETWEEN POWER GENERATORS, STORAGE FACILITIES AND ELECTRICAL CONSUMERS.

C

ONSUMERS

S

TORAGE POWER

P

LANT

C

^ONTROL

*

R

ENEWABLE ENERGY

I

F THIS INNOVATION DYNAMIC CAN BE SUSTAINED, AND RENEWABLES ARE GIVEN PRIORITY, THEN AN ENERGY SYSTEM THAT IS 100% BASED ON RENEWABLES COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AS EARLY AS 2050 – NOT ONLY IN

G

ERMANY, BUT ALL OVER THE WORLD.

V

ISION OF A GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY BY 2050

500 400 300 200 100 0

1970

SAVINGS THROUGH:

GAS FROM WIND AND SOLAR SOLAR POWER WIND SOLAR HEAT GEOTHERMAL POWER HYDROPOWER HEAT FROM BIOMASS POWER FROM BIOMASS NUCLEAR ENERGY NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL COAL E-MOBILITY CHP AND HEAT PUMPS DIRECT POWER GENERATION (WIND, SOLAR, HYDROPOWER)

PRIMARY ENERGY (EXAJOULES/YEAR)

Source: WBGU 2011

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

T

HERE ARE TWO VIABLE TECHNOLOGIES FOR STORAGE.

O

NE OF THESE IS PUMPED STORAGE POWER

P

LANTS, WHICH HAS BEEN IN USE FOR SOME TIME.

T

HE OTHER IS STORING THE ELECTRICITY IN THE FORM OF GAS.

T

OGETHER WITH THE

C

^{ENTRE FOR}

S

^OLAR

E

^{NERGY AND}

H

^YDROGEN

R

^ESEARCH

B

^ADEN-

W

ÜRTTEMBERG WE‘RE DEVELOPING AN IDEA FOR COUPLING ELECTRICITY AND GAS.

Y

OU TAKE THE EXCESS ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES AND MAKE METHANE OUT OF IT.

T

HIS GAS CAN BE USED TO GENERATE HEAT, OR AS A FUEL, OR BE STORED IN NATURAL GAS NETWORKS.

T

HE NATURAL GAS NETWORKS ALREADY EXIST.

T

HE METHANE CAN BE CONVERTED BACK INTO

ELECTRICITY WHENEVER NECESSARY.

I

N THIS PROCESS YOU ONLY RELEASE AS MUCH

CO

2 INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AS YOU PREVIOUSLY EXTRACTED FROM IT, MAKING THIS TECHNOLOGY

CARBON NEUTRAL.

4H

2

O ž 4H

²

+ 2O

²

4H

2

+ CO

²

ž CH

⁴

+ 2H

²

O

GENERATED POWER SURPLUS POWER

POWER

SURPLUS POWER

SHORTAGE

COMBINED HEAT AND POWER

GENERATION (CHP)* TRANSPORT

HEAT

GAS STORAGE COMBINED CYCLE

GAS TURBINES ELECTROLYSIS METHANIZATION

CARBON DIOXIDE FROM ATMOSPHERE, INDUSTRY, ETC.

WATER

HYDROGEN

OXYGEN METHANE

NATURAL GAS PIPELINE

LOWER BASIN

U^{PPER BASIN}

P^OWERHOUSE

POWER GRID

W^ATERWAY LOWER BASIN

U^{PPER BASIN}

P^OWERHOUSE

POWER GRID

W^ATERW AY

Source: www.pskw.atSource: ASUE e. V.

ž 4

2

ž CH