Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
The Future of the Aral Sea and its Ecosystem:
Possible scenarios and outcomes
H.P. Nachtnebel, V. Dukhovny, A. Tuchin, A. Sorokin, Y. Roschenko, U. Uhalin, P.D. Umarov, B. Tashmukhamedov, I.
Mirabdullayev, O. Vasilyev, V. Kvon
Contributing scientists
• SIC ICWC:V. Dukhovny, A. Sorokin, Y. Roschenko, R.
Kadirova
• Center of Intergrated Water Systems Research:A. Tuchin, P.D.
Umarov, U. Uhalin, A. Beloglazov, E. Korshak, E. Temlyanceva
• Institute of Physiology and Biophysics & Institute of Zoology at the Academy of Sciences, UZ
Bek Tashmukhamedov, I. Mirabdullayev
• Institute for Water and Environmental Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences:O. Vasilyev, V.I. Kvon, V. I. Kuzin, A. N.
Semchukov, V. V. Martyanov
• IWHW-BOKU: H.P. Nachtnebel, Prof.H. Holzmann
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Contributing scientists
• SIC ICWC:V. Dukhovny, A. Sorokin, Y. Roschenko, R.
Kadirova
• Center of Intergrated Water Systems Research:A. Tuchin, P.D.
Umarov, U. Uhalin, A. Beloglazov, E. Korshak, E. Temlyanceva
• Institute of Physiology and Biophysics & Institute of Zoology at the Academy of Sciences, UZ
Bek Tashmukhamedov, I. Mirabdullayev
• Institute for Water and Environmental Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences:O. Vasilyev, V.I. Kvon, V. I. Kuzin, A. N.
Semchukov, V. V. Martyanov
• IWHW-BOKU: H.P. Nachtnebel, Prof.H. Holzmann
Structure of the presentation
• Objectives and introduction
• Identification of scenarios for the Aral Sea region
• Assessment of scenarios
• Summary and conclusions
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Objectives and introduction
The objective is to identify development strategies in the catchment
- to improve socio-economic development and water use in the region
- to achieve ecological sustainability and bioproductivity in the Aral Sea and the surrounding area
Upper catchment (Kirgistan)
The lower part of the basin (Uzbekistan)
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
The Aral Sea catchment
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
The two tributaries
• Syrdarya (Jaxartes)
– 3019 km – 782 670 km2
• Amurdarya (Oxus)
– 2400 km – 534 739 km2
The two tributaries
• Syrdarya (Jaxartes)
– 3019 km – 782 670 km2
• Amudarya
– 2400 km – 534 739 km2
• Danube
– 2880 km – 795 000 km2
Water sources and consumers
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Some figures about water consumption in Central Asia
• Water sources
– 43% of the annual discharge in the basin originates in Tajikistan
– 24% in Kyrgyzstan
– approximately 19% in Afghanistan.
• water usage
Physical structure of WM
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Hydrology: Inflow pattern
Changes of the Aral Sea
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Bathymetry of the Aral Sea
• Sea level until 1960 was about 53 m a.s.l.
• Surface was 69,8 10
3km
2• maximum depth was 69 m
• water volume was about 1056 km
3• about 1100 islands totaling
54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29.75 29.5 29.25 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14
Fig. 4.1. Sink of the Aral Sea
Eastern part Western part
Northern part
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Quantitative changes in the system
• Year Sea level Surface Volume (m.a.s.l.) 10
3km
2km
3• 1960 53,40 69,79 1056,12
• 1984 42,75 44,92 487,66
• 1986 41,02 38,56 380,63
• 2000 33,50 22,93 139,53
Development of water utilisation
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Species composition (total number) in the Aral Sea
Taxa 1971 1981 1989 1994 2000 2001
zooplankton 43 18 13 9 8 5
zoobenthos 82 51 14 7 5
Fish 20 30 17 5 3 2
Salinity (g/l) 12 18 30 37 60 65
Some figures about salinity
• Salinity of regular sea waters 3,5 % 35g/l
• Brakish waters < 1% <10g/l
• Caspian Sea 1,3 % 13g/l
• Mono lake (Nevada) 7,3 % 73g/l
• Dead Sea ~30% 300g/l
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Fish fauna
• Fish fauna in Aral Sea was relatively poor (20 species)
• Caspian Sea had 130 species
• Between 1950-1960 the # rose up to 30 species (introduction)
• With increase of salinity other species were introduced
• 1990 only 5 species were found
• 2001 only 2 species were found (atherine and flounder)
Fauna
• Atherina Flounder
• Artemia
(from Wikipedia)
Main problems
• intensive cotton monoculture
• extreme environmental degradation
• Intensive pesticide use and salinization
• industrial pollution
• Irrigation lead to a decrease of surface and groundwater
• high rates of disease (cancer) and infant mortality.
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Summary of changes
• Due to a dramatic drop in the influx of water into the Aral Sea, its area has been reduced to 25 %, the volume is now about 10%, the level dropped by 23 m
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Summary of changes
• Due to a dramatic drop in the influx of water into the Aral Sea, its area has been reduced to 25 %, the volume is now about 10%, the level dropped by 23 m
• The Aral Sea has split into two water bodies, the Small Aral (North) and the Large Aral (South). As a result, the water salinity in the Large Aral has grown by a factor of 7 reaching over 80 ppt in the Western basin and 100 ppt in the Eastern basin.
Summary of changes
• Due to a dramatic drop in the influx of water into the Aral Sea, its area has been reduced to 25 %, the volume is now about 10%, the level dropped by 23 m
• The Aral Sea has split into two water bodies, the Small Aral and the Large Aral. As a result, the water salinity in the Large Aral has grown by a factor of 7 reaching over 80 ppt in the Western basin and 100 ppt in the eastern basin.
• The Large Aral has turned into a polyhaline lake. As a result, this has brought about cardinal changes in the composition of the Aral biota. Most of the species disappeared.
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Summary of changes
• Due to a dramatic drop in the influx of water into the Aral Sea, its area has been reduced to 25 %, the volume is now about 10%, the level dropped by 23 m
• The Aral Sea has split into two water bodies, the Small Aral and the Large Aral. As a result, the water salinity in the Large Aral has grown by a factor of 7 reaching over 80 ppt in the Western basin and 100 ppt in the eastern basin.
• The Large Aral has turned into a polyhaline lake. As a result, this has brought about cardinal changes in the composition of the Aral biota. Most of the species disappeared
• The bio-productivity has extremely decreased
A dry region ?
• Yes and no !
Water Scarcity
• Indicators: Water Scarcity
– less than 1 700 m³ per year per person is available, people experience water stress.
– Less than 1 000 m³ per capita is classified as chronic water scarcity and
– less than 500 m³ as absolute water scarcity
• Rural Water Livelihoods Index (RWLI by FAO in 2009) It includes
– services component (access to water and sanitation), – security component (crop and livestock water), – environment component (clean and healthy water), – entitlement component (secure and equitable water).
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Water Scarcity
UNDP's 2006 Human Development Report
– The scarcity at the heart of the global water crisis is rooted in power, poverty and equality, not in physical availability.
– In many countries scarcity is the product of public policies that have encouraged overuse of water through subsidies and underpricing.
– There is more than enough water in the world for domestic purposes, agriculture and industry.
– The problem is that some people-notably the poor-are systematically excluded from access
– In short, scarcity is manufactured through political processes and institutions
Water availability (global)
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Water Scarcity
What was done, what could be done ?
• Measures to improve the conditions of the lake
– Institutional set up
– Improving water governance (transboundary management) – Engineering measures
– Water management (improving water use efficiency)
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Water management structure in the Soviet period
• early 1980-: average efficiency of irrigation systems (ratio of water used productively at the fields to headworks withdrawals) was around 60% in the Aral Sea basin, the lowest of any region in the Soviet Union
• In January 1988, a state committee for the protection of nature was formed, elevated as the Ministry for Natural Resources and Environmental Protection in 1990.
• The Ministry had authority over all aspects of the environment and the use of natural resources.
• Shortly after, the Interstate Coordination Water Commission (ICWC) was formed by the newly independent states to provide
Dublin Principles of 1992
• Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment;
• Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policymakers at all levels;
• Women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water;
• Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognised as an economic good
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Transboundary Management
• In February 1992, agreement to coordinate policies on their transboundary waters. Subsequent agreements in the 1990s and in 2002 have updated water management institutions
• 1992: an agreement to coordinate efforts to "solve the Aral Sea crisis"
– carrying out joint research – exchanging information
– adhering to agreed-to regulations for water use and
long term "Concept" and a short-term
"Program" for the Aral Sea
• 1994: Concept is based on a strict policy of water conservation. Allocation of water for preservation of the Aral Sea was recognized as a legitimate water use for the first time.
• four major objectives:
– to stabilize the environment of the Aral Sea;
– to rehabilitate the disaster zone around the Sea;
– to improve the management of international waters of the basin; and
– to build the capacity of regional institutions to plan and implement these programs.
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Funding
• These regional activities are supported and supplemented by a variety of governmental and non-governmental agencies, including the European Union, the World Bank, UNEP, and UNDP.
• 1995: Nukus Declaration indicated the need for a "unified multi- sectoral approach and the development of cooperation amongst the states and with the international community"
• 2002: Creation of the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO) with a broad mandate to promote cooperation among member states on water, energy, and the environment.
Lessons learned
• National objectives dominate basin wide interests.
• Lack of trust and credibility among the countries can hinder the process of cooperation.
• Water and energy resources are unequally distributed
• An inefficient water use
• Although a interstate committee has been established none of the plans was implemented
• The Central Asian Economic Community, now the Central Asian Cooperation Organization, playes a key role in mediating between the Aral Sea Basin states when there were difficulties within the International Fund for the Aral Sea.
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Measures in the South Aral Sea and Priaralia region
f(t)
RS f(t) f(t) SA
w SA
e SA m f(t)
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
The priaralie region: Amudarya Delta
d
d d
d d d
d
d
d d
d d
d
$
d d
%
KKS SA-1
MA-1 RA-1 DU-1
KS-1 KS-3
DP-1 PP-1 DP-2
ÊÑ-4 AP-3
AP-1 AP-4
AP-5 AP-2
52.0
58.0 53.0
52.5 52.5 46.0
48.0 43.5
45.0
47.0
7 m3/s
36 m3/s 43 m3/s
24 m3/s
34 m3/s 10 m3/s 20 m3/s 44 m3/s
35 m3/s
39 m3/s
74 m3/s 38 m3/s
40 m3/s 93 m3/s
66 m3/s 36 m3/s
16 m3/s 25 m3/s 70 m3/s
10 m3/s
23 m3/s
44 m3/s 250 m3/s
140 m3/s
52.5 m3/s
1841 m3/s 1225 m3/s
1328 m3/s
1964 m3/s 1348 m3/s
1451 m3/s 2091 m3/s
1475 m3/s 1578 m3/s
Urdabai
Glavmyaso
Kazakhdarya
Mashan-Karazhar
Inzhen erozek
Collector Us
tyurt
Akkai
Ilenkul
Dumalak
Mashankol
Djiltyrbas res.
Muynak res.
Sudochye Mejdurechenskoye
Rybachie
Akdarya
Kung rad-M
uinak Amu-Darya
Qopt = 2458 m3/ c Qint = 1842 m3/ c Qbus = 1945 m3/ c Water discharge in Samanbay
gauging station
Rivers Canals Collectors
Dams dOutlets Hidrounints
$
%Escape
Design:
52.5 ...Water surface elevations
Legend Water flows in scenarios
Optimistic Intermedium Business of usual Saline water Mixed waters
Optimistic Intermedium Business of usual Optimistic
Intermedium Business of usual Fresh water
Aral Sea Variant II I .
Corrected calculation by "Aral Consult"
Schematic map of water flow allocation in the years of maximum water supply
Measures to preserve the Aral Sea
The Northern part
In order to secure the existence of the Northern Aral Sea, Kazakhstan constructed, with a loan and
expertise from the World Bank, the
13-km Kok-Aral dike, which was
completed in 2005 and prevented
the water of the Syr Darya from
flowing into the Southern Aral,
Planned Measures
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Eastern part:
To preserve the Eastern part
(small surface and large volume) a diversion from the Amudarya was planned in 2000
Observed Improvements
• In addition to the dam
– old infrastructure on the Syr Darya was rehabilitated, – irrigation systems were improved
– several new hydraulic structures were constructed to reduce water losses and increase the flow of the Syr Darya.
– The surface of the Northern Aral Sea grew by 18% and the
Observed biological improvements
• Biomass (weight of all the fish in the northern sea) was estimated in 2011 to have risen from 3 500 tonnes, most of it a flounder introduced from the Black Sea, to 18 000 tonnes, most of it native, edible species like carp, pike perch, catfish and pike.
• Commercial fishing now accounts for 4 500 tonnes and a fish-processing plant has started operating in Aralsk, exporting the most valuable fish to Russia and other neighbouring countries.
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Water Management:
• Business as usual
• National visions
• Optimistic scenario
• Scenarios from 2006-2025
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Scenarios from 2006-2025
• Business as usual
• National visions
• Optimistic scenario
also considering climatic variability (dry and wet) also considering different water distribution systems in the Deltas
Business as Usual
It is assumed that:
• The region will develop as usual regarding transboundary water management, each country is tending to self-provision in food production.
• Integration processes in transboundary water resources management will be developed slowly.
• Regional integration in agricultural production progresses poorly.
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Toktogul Reservoir
• Construction period: 1962 – 1975
• Water surface of the reservoir: 284,3 km²
• Storage capacity: 19.500 Mio. m³
• Installed capacity: 1200 MW
Toktogul Reservoir
• Construction period: 1962 – 1975
• Water surface of the reservoir: 284,3 km²
• Storage capacity: 19.500 Mio. m³
• Installed capacity: 1200 MW
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Changes in reservoir management
Toktogul Reservoir (Kirgistan)
Was planned for irrigation + hydropower
is recently mainly used for power generation
National Future Development Strategies
• The national development plans of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, Usbekistan, Turkmenistan are analysed
• Indicators are growth rates of population, economic
development, resources use (land, water, energy..)
and social indicators (health, expected life time…)
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Optimistic scenario (close co-operation)
Regional integrated development is supported by all the states:
• mutual beneficial use of transboundary water resources on the basis of water conservation and common environmental approaches
• mutual beneficial agricultural development with focus on regional specialization in agricultural production
• Efficient water and resources use
• economic growth, mainly through industrial and services development
Analysis of the consequences
• Modelling and simulation tools hydrological model
water balance model
water management models agricultural models
economic model
ecological model (salinity, variability, depth)
• Impacts on the water bodies of Aral Sea
• Impacts on the Delta areas
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
An intensively managed catchment
Flow paths and consumers in the Amudarya catchment
Structure of the socio-economic model
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Calibration of the models
Simulation results Salinity in the Eastern lake
54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29.75 29.5 29.25 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16
Fig. 4.1. Sink of the Aral Sea
Eastern pa
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Simulation results
Salinity in the Western lake
Seawater salinity
50,00 55,00 60,00 65,00 70,00 75,00 80,00 85,00 90,00 95,00 100,00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
g/l
NAT_H SAV_H OPT_H NAT_L SAV_L OPT_L
54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29.75 29.5 29.25 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16
Fig. 4.1. Sink of the Aral Sea
Western part
Diversion of the input
Amudarya inflow goes to the Western lake
54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29.75 29.5 29.25 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16
Fig. 4.1. Sink of the Aral Sea
Western part
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Impacts on biology
Data collection 2002
Halotolerance of aquatic animals
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Analysis of scenarios
• In all scenarios the Large Sea will separate into a Western and an Eastern lake
• The Eastern lake is very shallow, dries out from time to time and will have an extremely high salt
concentration
• The Western lake is deep, has a large volume and a small surface
• The salt concentration in the Western Sea will be lower than in the Eastern Sea
Analysis of scenarios
• The recent inflow from Amudarya feeds the Eastern part
• The runoff should be diverted to the Western part
• A compensation discharge should remain for the Amudarya Delta and the Priaralia shallow water bodies
• The biology and bioproductivity might be maintained
What could/should be done?
• A basin wide water management perspective is still missing although an Aral Sea vision has been developed (supported by UNESCO)
• All riperian states have disadvantages from recent water management practice
• The water use efficiency can be substantially improved at all levels
– international by sharing waters in time and space,
– at the national level by improving management practice and by implementing updated technologies (treatment schemes, irrigation practice,…)
– Local level by training and education
• Water scarcity is not the major issue (according to international guidelines)
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
New plans and projects in the catchment
• Kambarata-1 Project is in the final planning phase a large storage scheme on the Upper Naryn (Kirgistan)
• It will have substantial consequences for the hydrological pattern downstream.
• Further, six other schemes are planned
New plans and projects in the catchment
• Kambarata-1 Project is in the final planning phase a large storage scheme on the Upper Naryn (Kirgistan)
• It will have substantial consequences for the hydrological pattern downstream.
• Further, six other schemes are planned
• It will be the highest dam in the world (~ 275 m)
• The capacity will be about 2,000 MW
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Which water management options could help ?
– Improved institutional cooperation among the riparian states
– Development of a joint water management strategy (transboundary management)
– engineering measures at the local level
– Improved water use efficiency by considering all costs and impacts and by updated techniques
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Summary and conclusions
• The historic development of the Aral Sea region was described for the last 50 years
Summary and conclusions
• The historic development of the Aral Sea region was described for the last 50 years
• Problems are due inefficient water use and a lack of transboundary water management
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Summary and conclusions
• The historic development of the Aral Sea region was described for the last 50 years
• Problems are due to water scarcity, inefficient water use and a lack of transboundary water management
• Based on complex models three scenarios were analysed
Summary and conclusions
• The historic development of the Aral Sea region was described for the last 50 years
• Problems are due to water scarcity, inefficient water use and a lack of transboundary water management
• Based on complex models three scenarios were analysed
• None is able to restore the Aral Sea
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Summary and conclusions
• The historic development of the Aral Sea region was described for the last 50 years
• Problems are due to water scarcity, inefficient water use and a lack of transboundary water management
• Based on complex models three scenarios were analysed
• None is able to restore the Aral Sea
• The major part of the lake is going to dry out soon
Summary and conclusions
• The historic development of the Aral Sea region was described for the last 50 years
• Problems are due to water scarcity, inefficient water use and a lack of transboundary water management
• Based on complex models three scenarios were analysed
• None is able to restore the Aral Sea
• The major part of the lake is going to dry out soon
• The small Western part might be maintained
Future of Aral Sea and its Ecosystem H.P. Nachtnebel et al.
Summary and conclusions
• The historic development of the Aral Sea region was described for the last 50 years
• Problems are due to water scarcity, inefficient water use and a lack of transboundary water management
• Based on complex models three scenarios were analysed
• None is able to restore the Aral Sea
• The major part of the lake is going to dry out soon
• The small Western part might be maintained
• Parts of the biota may be preserved in the Delta regions
• In the long term the Western part might provide sufficiently low salinity for Artemia