5. Future narratives
5.4 Future narratives in the Barents area
5.4.1 Workshop results
5.4.1.1
Pajala workshop
Pajala is a municipality in the Torne Valley in Norrbotten County, Sweden. Historically, forestry has been the dominant industry but there are now fewer job opportunities in forestry than in the past.
Mining is a major issue in discussions about the future: a new mine opened in 2012 but was declared bankrupt in 2014. Th e municipality includes spring-winter lands for reindeer herding.
Th e municipality has 6300 inhabitants spread over more than 80 smaller villages and hamlets. Th e Pajala workshop participants included roughly equal numbers of researchers and local/
regional participants. Th e workshop was held in March 2015.
Th e workshop highlighted climate change and power relations between the national and local level as particularly relevant drivers from a local/regional perspective. Participants perceived issues related to international security as the most uncertain, together with the impacts of climate change (Figure 5.4).
The narratives
Fossil-fueled Development globally entails increasing investment in industrial development in Pajala, with new job opportunities.
Reindeer herding declines. Demands on education are high and people move into the region. Risks relate to security, terrorism, and to competitiveness on the international resource market.
Sustainability: With the green road, forestry becomes a major industry in the Pajala region, both as an energy resource (biofuel production) but also to sequester carbon. Th e social focus shift s towards highly self-suffi cient livelihoods, favoring rural areas that can supply locally produced food and energy. Th e rate of urbanization in the region slows. Knowledge becomes a premium resource as the basis of the green economy, especially in technological innovation and operation.
Regional Rivalry: While the global security situation worsens, community life and decision-making in Pajala continues far-removed from such global changes. Th e state withdraws from
Pajala Inari
Bodø Kirovsk
Figure 5.3 Locations of scenario workshops conducted for the Barents area pilot studies.
Bodø: Maiken Bjørkan Inari: Svein D. Mathiesen
Pajala: Dag Avango Kirovsk: Lyudmila Isaeva
Laws and regulations Ecosystems Communication Technology development Economic development Local job market Knowledge Climate impacts Transport/Infrastructure Entrepreneurship Raw materials markets Demography Energy markets Ideology/values Ecosystem services International security Power relations national-local Climate change
0 5 10 15 20
Uncertainty, % Importance, %
Figure 5.4 Pajala workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’ in response to the question: What future changes may infl uence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations?
(Nilsson et al., 2015).
a variety of public sectors, gradually pushing the responsibility for welfare state functions over to municipalities, which results in a more local focus. Mining creates some jobs but there is also a growing service sector in which a large immigrant population is active. In this world, social tensions present a major risk.
Inequality: In the divided world, Pajala attracts refugees and other immigrants. Risks include social tensions between a large and growing group of low-income households and a rich elite coming to the region for recreational or entrepreneurial purposes. Local resources are important for low-income groups. Local influence on important decisions declines and with a loss of trust in formal forms of collective decision-making, people increasingly rely on informal social networks in all aspects of life. A major uncertainty is the regional security situation.
5.4.1.2
Kirovsk workshop
Kirovsk is a municipality located in the Murmansk region, Russia. Mining is the dominant industry. Winter tourism, developed in the Soviet era, is increasing due to the new regional development strategy. There are 29,000 inhabitants in the municipality, including Koashva village. The Kirovsk workshop participants were mostly regional representatives of industry, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), non-governmental organizations and academia. The workshop was held in June 2015.
Discussions about locally and regionally relevant drivers highlighted the development of technologies and changing environmental conditions as particularly important.
Participants perceived issues related to the impacts of climate change as the most uncertain, together with the changes in mineral resource markets (Figure 5.5).
The narratives
Fossil-fueled Development globally entails demand for advanced mining technologies, which for the Murmansk region leads to fewer job opportunities and an outflow of population.
High demands on qualification of labor force drive increasing investment to education and human capital. Risks relate to fluctuation of international mineral markets. People that come
to the Murmansk region lack affinity to the region and leave when job opportunities end. International cooperation plays a significant role.
Sustainability: In this world, technologies for environmentally-friendly mining and waste treatment are important for development in the Murmansk region. Demands for environmentally-friendly solutions to development problems force a transfer of decision-making to the local level, and a transition towards participatory regional governance. The political focus is on welfare and well-being of society as a whole, resulting in rising birth rates. Climate change requires increased investments for infrastructure.
Regional Rivalry: While the global security situation worsens, the Russian federal center amasses administrative powers and develops the Murmansk region into an Arctic military outpost of Russia. The area also becomes a point on the Northern Sea Route that links the Arctic region to the rest of the Russian Federation. Mining remains the basis of economic development.
Risks relate to reduced environmental protection caused by efforts to cut costs for products and services.
Inequality: In the divided world, the Murmansk region is completely transformed into a raw materials appendage of the central regions of the Russian Federation. Intense development of new mineral deposits reduces the areas available for traditional nature use (reindeer herding, mushroom and berry picking, fishing) and also creates difficulties with access for public recreation. The risks are related to a divided society and the emergence of nationalist political parties.
5.4.1.3
Bodø workshop
Bodø is a municipality in the county of Nordland, Norway, and is also the county administrative center. Bodø is located in the middle of the county and, importantly, at the coast.
Historically, Bodø has thrived as an important trade center for fish. Fisheries remains a key industry today, while economic activities related to trade, finance and administrative tasks are also significant. The Bodø region, which includes three municipalities, has 53,257 inhabitants and Bodø city has 39,384 inhabitants.
The Bodø workshop participants represented local, regional and sector-specific perspectives, and included both practitioners and researchers. The participants identified energy/petroleum, climate, and demography as the most important drivers of change from a local/regional perspective, while local politics, global economy, and international security were ranked as the three most uncertain (Figure 5.6). The workshop was held in August 2015.
The narratives
Fossil-fueled Development globally translates to ‘full speed ahead’ for Nordland, with Bodø acting as a hub for the region’s oil and gas resources. New technologies, with demand for high competence and global capital, emerge across multiple economic sectors. The political landscape is more polarized with a greater focus on regional than local issues.
Uncertainty, % Importance, % Morbidity
Cultural diversity Changing mineral resource reserves Climate change Foreign policy Mineral resource markets Changing demographic structure Reflection (perception, culture) Changing environmental conditions Development of technologies
0 5 10 15 20 25
Figure 5.5 Kirovsk workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’ in response to the question: What future changes may influence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations?
(van Oort et al., 2015).
Sustainability: Th e world is ever more connected, and despite an increased green focus in all sectors and more climate-friendly energy use, there is a continued need for energy. In Nordland, climate change allows an increase in aquaculture, including production of algae or algae based-products, while coastal fi sh stocks are migrating north and new stocks and species are moving into the region. Bodø grows as a knowledge center. Th ere is an increased focus on tourism, and the local military is downsized.
Regional Rivalry: Th ere is little development in Nordland and people focus on making ends meet, while environmental issues are disregarded. Th ere is little international cooperation. A new knowledge structure develops around an increased focus on the primary sector. People feel disempowered but there is still local activism.
Inequality: In a divided world, Nordland is a society with large diff erences, where a political and economic elite control energy production, prices and distribution patterns. While there are few investments from the national level, Nordland does well since it is a region rich in natural resources. Th e return to the
‘old ways’ with an elite controlling politics and resources gives rise to confl icts with and among the rest of the population.
5.4.1.4
Gávnnadeapmi workshop
Reindeer herding is practiced throughout the Eurasian Arctic by a range of indigenous peoples. At the reindeer herding youth gathering Gávnnadeapmi 2015, 30 young reindeer herders discussed current and future challenges for this livelihood.
Th e participants were mostly Saami from Finland, Norway and Sweden, but also Nenets, Even and Evenki from Russia.
Exercises similar to those in the workshops were carried out at the gathering, which also included presentations about issues in diff erent localities and the adoption of the Gávnnadeapmi Declaration (http://reindeerherding.org/tag/gavnnadeapmi/).
Th e participants identifi ed indigenous rights and traditional knowledge as the most important issues for understanding adaptation challenges for their livelihood, followed by industrial economic development and climate change (Figure 5.7). Th e workshop was held in September 2015.
The narratives
Fossil-fueled Development globally would mean that everybody is equal without any special attention given to indigenous rights.
Th e focus on developing oil and gas thus pays no attention to indigenous land rights. In-migration leads to pressure on land. Indigenous youth oft en pursue science and technology careers rather than continue with reindeer herding and there is a loss in traditional knowledge and languages. Reindeer are genetically engineered and herding gives way to reindeer farming. Climate change creates more demand for grazing land and exacerbates land-use confl icts. Reindeer herding becomes even more challenging when reindeer ‘get confused’ because of environmental changes.
Sustainability: Indigenous rights are strong in this world and traditional knowledge is included in decision-making as well as in a unique education system for reindeer herding. Th e era of extractive industries in the north is of the past and economic development focuses on agriculture and small-scale businesses.
Th e region attracts new people. Impacts of climate change are reduced owing to many opportunities for adaptation. Wealth is more equally distributed between center and periphery.
Regional Rivalry: In this ‘gray’ world, industry is prioritized.
Little attention is given to the values that nature provides, such as clean water and food. State control is strong and indigenous rights are weak. Priority to military demands drives increasing competition for land. International cooperation declines which also aff ects cooperation among indigenous peoples and mobility across borders for reindeer herders. Fewer resources are given to education, which especially aff ects indigenous education.
Progressive people leave the region and there is an infl ux of cheap labor. Food production is intensifi ed as countries need to be self-suffi cient.
Health Climate change and its impacts Energy (incl petroleum) Business dev. in reindeer herding Influence on decisions
Figure 5.6 Bodø workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’ in response to the question: What future changes may infl uence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations?
(van Oort et al., 2015).
Figure 5.7 Gávnnadeapmi workshop: results of brainstorming and ‘voting’
in response to the question: What future changes may infl uence this region economically, environmentally and socially within one to two generations?
Inequality: In the unequal world, the elite live in a protected paradise, where nature is unharmed and industrial pollution is unseen. Many people live in ‘normal’ areas, neither paradise nor destroyed. Minorities live next to industrial areas. Reindeer herders live in industrial areas. Herders cannot live only on reindeer herding, but need additional income to survive.
Traditional knowledge and language are lost. It is a fully class-based society.