Moving forward

The initial analysis shows how various drivers of change may interact, and how developments at the local, regional, and global scale and in the different sectors influence whether and how the Barents area can further develop its forests as a resource base. Near-term impacts are more likely to be affected by governance and globalization than by changes in climate.

On the other hand, by 2050, climate change has the potential to be a dominant driver increasingly affecting impacts on ecosystems and the industries and people depending on these

directly. More work is needed to understand the cumulative impacts and cascading effects of the bundle of drivers affecting any given sector and to understand how these cumulative impacts will evolve over time. Applying the weighted driver importance method in a combined driver-impact-consequence analysis allows for a more balanced narrative and estimation of the cumulative regional impacts for specific sectors or sub-regions.

This methodology is a tool intended to inform thinking and decision-making about the future and to inform more detailed discussion of resilience and adaptation actions (Chapter 8 and 9).

Depending on the focus area (e.g. region, sector), some drivers of change are more important than others and their importance changes over time. Economic and political shifts affecting certain drivers of change are especially difficult to foresee.

The impacts on a sector in one country may not be the same as those in another country, simply owing to different policies and regulations, global trade links, available infrastructure, support by or dependence on available technology, or public acceptance. Adaptation actions taken to respond to and build resilience to changes in one area may conflict between locations, sectors, and scales.

Importantly, the output of the analysis such as that for the forestry sector (Section 6.4.3) may serve as crucial input to larger resilience discussions (e.g. case studies in Section 8.6), and adaptation options (primary sectoral studies in Section 9.2).

Consequences are the intersection of the scientific process (attribution of drivers to impacts to consequences) with the decision-making process (linking specific decision-making questions to issues of change in the Arctic and ultimately also to consequences) that provides the ‘key’ to connecting science to decision-making. As shown in Chapters 5, 8 and 9, these larger discussions of resilience and adaptation actions benefit from setting clear goals of what society or sectors want to achieve, understanding what adaptation processes entail, and involving a range of actors, sectors, and types of knowledge (see also Chapter 10 on the need for tools for analyzing the robustness of adaptation options).

Interactions between drivers and their impacts and consequences are continuously changing, and feedbacks to sectors and their interactions are difficult to identify. This also means that assessing the cumulative and cascading effects must be done repeatedly to stay up to date. Further, adaptation actions require an iterative process to assess the status of drivers, impacts, and consequences as those adaptation actions take effect and as the underlying drivers of change evolve with time (see Chapter 9 for a detailed discussion about the dimensions that are involved in the adaptation processes). As discussed in Sections 8.5 and 9.4, an iterative process is necessary to bring stakeholders together in order to co-develop knowledge, and understand the particular context in which consequences and impacts occur and why they require adaptation action. It is therefore important to view this section as a tool to assess consequences and needs for adaptation, rather than an answer to which changes will happen to a sector, region or locality.

This analysis is only part of a larger ongoing discussion of resilience and adaptation actions, but is a critically important part of that discussion.

Acknowledgment

Part of Anna Degteva’s work was supported by the Research Council of Norway through the ‘Rievdan’ project at the Sámi University of Applied Sciences and the International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry.

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